Social Activity Measure - March 1st - 9th 2022
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Social Activity Measure March 1 – 9 2022 st th
ABOUT THE RESEARCH The Social Activity Measure (SAM) is a behavioural study that records the public response to the risk of COVID-19 infection over time. Designed by the ESRI’s Behavioural Research Unit (BRU), SAM is an anonymous, interactive, online study that surveys people about their recent activity. The study offers insight into where and how risks of COVID-19 transmission arise. SAM aims to inform policy regarding the opening of parts of the economy and society, while keeping COVID-19 under control. The research was designed by the BRU in consultation with the Department of the Taoiseach, which funds the work. The survey is completely anonymous. Where comparisons between survey rounds are highlighted, they are statistically significant. TIMING This slide deck presents results from a nationally representative sample of 1,000 people aged 18 and over who participated in the study between March 1st and 9th 2022. Data were collected six weeks after the lifting of the majority of public health restrictions. The mask mandate was lifted on February 28th (days before data collection); however, mask wearing continued to be advised on public transport and in healthcare settings. The previous wave of SAM coincided with a period of bad weather including multiple storms and recorded some declines in social activity. Source: ESRI Social Activity Measure for the Department of the Taoiseach 2
Total locations visited 5.0 4.5 There was no significant change 4.0 in locations visited either over 3.5 the previous week or the previous day. Total locations 3.0 week 2.5 yesterday 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Mar Feb May 1/3-9/3 Jun Jul Sep 4/1-11/1 Oct Nov Jan Apr Dec Aug 18/1-25/1 01/2-08/2 15/2-22/2 Source: ESRI Social Activity Measure for the Department of the Taoiseach 3
Locations visited (previous week) 100 30 90 25 80 70 20 60 % % 50 15 40 10 30 20 5 10 0 0 4/1 - 11/1 Sep 18/1-25/1 01/2-08/2 15/2-22/2 1/3-9/3 Jan Feb Oct Dec Jun Jul Aug Apr Nov Mar May 4/1 - 11/1 Sep Dec 18/1-25/1 01/2-08/2 15/2-22/2 1/3-9/3 Jan Feb Oct Jun Jul Aug Apr Nov Mar May Shop/business Transport Outdoor Medical Exercise Indoor Work Other home Café/pub/restaurant Event School/College Hotel/B&B Visits to other homes and use of transport were significantly lower than the previous wave. The previous decline in visits to medical facilities recovered and there was a significant increase in visits to hotels compared to the previous wave. Note that ‘Exercise’ relates to visits to exercise facilities and not other activities like walking or running. Source: ESRI Social Activity Measure for the Department of the Taoiseach 4
Locations visited (yesterday) 50 45 14 40 12 35 10 30 8 % 25 % 20 6 15 4 10 2 5 0 0 Jan Mar Apr May Aug Nov Dec 4/1 - 11/1 Jun Jul 1/3-9/3 Oct Feb Sep 18/1-25/1 01/2-08/2 15/2-22/2 Jan Mar Apr May Aug Nov Dec 4/1 - 11/1 Jun Jul 1/3-9/3 Oct Feb Sep 18/1-25/1 01/2-08/2 15/2-22/2 Shop/business Transport (all) Transport (public) Medical Exercise Outdoor Work Indoor Event School/College Other home Café/pub/restaurant Hotel/B&B There were significant declines in visits to cafés and pubs, whereas significant increases were observed in attendance at schools/colleges, events, medical facilities, and work. 5 Source: ESRI Social Activity Measure for the Department of the Taoiseach
Home Visits Proportion who had visitors or visited another household (previous day) 35 30 25 The dip in home visits 20 observed in late February Any visit % recovered, although the Social visit 15 change was not significant. Social visit (close contact) 10 Non-social (e.g. care, professional) 5 0 Mar Feb May 4/1-11/1 Jun Jul Sep 1/3-9/3 Oct Nov Jan Apr Dec Aug 18/1-25/1 01/2-08/2 15/2-22/2 Source: ESRI Social Activity Measure for the Department of the Taoiseach 6
National and international travel 18 16 The previous decline in 14 inter-county travel 12 recovered and travel to % Northern Ireland 10 Inter-county Travel (24hrs) increased compared to 8 the previous wave. NI Travel (past week) 6 4 Travel Off Island (past week) 2 0 Mar Feb May Jun Jul Sep 4/1-11/1 1/3-9/3 Oct Nov Jan Apr Dec Aug 18/1-25/1 01/2-08/2 15/2-22/2 Source: ESRI Social Activity Measure for the Department of the Taoiseach 7
Close contacts Close contact in past 24 hours 45 40 35 30 % 25 20 15 10 5 0 Jan Mar Apr May Aug Nov Dec 1/3-9/3 Jun Jul Oct 4/1-11/1 Feb Sep 18/1-25/1 01/2-08/2 15/2-22/2 The proportion of people who had a close contact the previous day increased significantly in this round of SAM and is now at its highest since SAM started at 42.5%. The proportion has trended slowly upwards following the initial step-jump when restrictions lifted. Source: ESRI Social Activity Measure for the Department of the Taoiseach 8
Number of close contacts Mean number of close contacts among those with at least one 8 7 Among those who had a close 6.2 6.3 6.2 6.5 contact the previous day, the 6 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.6 5.25.0 5.4 5.7 5.7 5.6 mean number of close 5 4.3 5.3 contacts increased. The average number of close 4 Close Contacts contacts without a mask also (With no masks) rose significantly. Both are at 3 their highest since SAM began. 2 1 Sep Feb Oct Dec 1/3-9/3 Jun Jul Aug 18/1-25/1 01/2-08/2 15/2-22/2 Apr Nov 4/1-11/1 Mar May Source: ESRI Social Activity Measure for the Department of the Taoiseach 9
Number of people met People from other households met in past 48hrs 5.00 4.50 The average number of 4.00 people met remains on an 3.50 upward trend since January, 3.00 however wave-on-wave Mean 2.50 comparisons tend to be non- 2.00 significant. 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 Nov Dec Jan Mar Apr May Aug 4/1 - 11/1 1/3-9/3 Jun Jul Oct Sep Feb 18/1-25/1 01/2-08/2 15/2-22/2 Source: ESRI Social Activity Measure for the Department of the Taoiseach 10
Close contacts - locations 45 45 All With no masks 40 40 35 35 30 30 All 25 25 % In a home 20 20 In work 15 Outdoors 15 Hospitality venue 10 10 Other 5 5 0 0 Mar Feb May 4/1-11/1 1/3-9/3 Jun Jul Sep Oct Nov Jan Apr Dec Aug 18/1-25/1 01/2-08/2 15/2-22/2 Mar Feb May 4/1-11/1 1/3-9/3 Jun Jul Sep Oct Nov Apr Dec Aug 18/1-25/1 01/2-08/2 15/2-22/2 There was a significant increase in the proportion of the population who had a close contact in total and without masks, and both are at their highest since SAM started. Significant increases of close contacts (with and without masks) were at work and other locations. Source: ESRI Social Activity Measure for the Department of the Taoiseach 11
Masks in Retail and on Public Transport 100 % who visited shops/used public transport There was a sharp drop in mask-wearing in 90 retail settings and on public transport 80 following the lifting of the mask mandate 70 on Feb 28th. (Note that masks continued to 60 be advised on public transport and in healthcare settings.) 50 The drop is sharpest among reports that 40 staff (in retail only) and all other 30 customers/passengers wore a mask. 20 However, almost two in three people (65%) report that they continue to wear a mask 10 in these settings. 0 Note that this analysis is heavily weighted towards retail (90:10) as there are more 18/2-25/1 01/2-08/2 15/2-22/2 01/3-09/3 May Nov Dec Mar 4/1-11/1 Jan Jun Jul Aug Sep Feb Apr Oct observations, but the trend is similar when both settings are analysed separately. Own (All) Others Staff (Retail Only) Source: ESRI Social Activity Measure for the Department of the Taoiseach 12
Mitigation Frequency of mitigative behaviours (wearing a mask, keeping 2m, sanitising hands) The previously recorded increase 70 in the proportion of people very often/always engaging in 60 mitigative behaviours (keeping distance, washing hands, wearing 50 masks) returned to early February levels. There was a sharp increase 40 in the proportion saying that they % Rarely/Never (0-49%) rarely/never engage in such 30 Sometimes (50-66%) behaviours which is now at its Regularly (67-82%) highest since SAM started. This 20 Very often/Always (83-100%)* change is likely driven by the change in requirements to wear a 10 mask. There was no significant change in the proportion reporting 0 *included in this group are those that they sometimes or regularly Nov Dec Jan Mar Apr May Aug 1/3-9/3 Jun Jul Oct 4/1-11/1 Sep Feb 18/1-25/1 01/2-08/2 15/2-22/2 who did not leave their home or have visitors the previous day. engage in mitigative behaviours. Source: ESRI Social Activity Measure for the Department of the Taoiseach 13
Worry Jan Feb Mar 9.0 45 42.3 42.4 42.1 8.0 40 34.5 35 Score out of 10 32.8 7.0 31.2 30 26.7 24.8 6.0 % adults 25 23.3 5.0 20 15 4.0 10 3.0 5 18/1-25/1 01/2-08/2 15/2-22/2 May Nov Dec Mar Jan 4/1-11/1 1/3-9/3 Jun Jul Aug Sep Feb Apr Oct 0 Low (1-4) Moderate (5-7) High (8-10) Worry Overall worry about COVID-19 has remained stable since late January. One-in-four people remain highly worried. Source: ESRI Social Activity Measure for the Department of the Taoiseach 14
Worry 6.0 5.5 catching COVID-19 5.0 friends/family healthcare system 4.5 cases global 4.0 economy restrictions returning 3.5 4/1-11/1 18/1-25/1 01/2-08/2 15/2-22/2 5/10-12/10 3/11-10/11 16/11/23/11 30/11-7/12 9/12-16/12 19/10-26/10 1/3-9/3 Most individual sources of worry have remained stable. The rise in worry about the economy observed in late February fell back to early February levels. Source: ESRI Social Activity Measure for the Department of the Taoiseach 15
Wellbeing 5.6 6.00 5.4 5.2 5.50 60+ 5.0 Score (1 to 7) 60+* 4.8 5.00 40-59 4.6 40-59* 4.4 4.50 18-39 18-39* 4.2 * = recorded 4.0 4.00 after Jan 22nd Apr Aug Nov Dec 01/2-08/2 15/2-22/2 Jan Oct Mar May Jun Jul 4/1 - 11/1 Feb Sep 18/1 - 25/1 1/3-9/3 announcement Self-reported wellbeing increased significantly in this round of SAM, and has reached its highest since last summer. The rise in wellbeing is driven by a significant increase among the youngest age cohort. The dip in wellbeing among the middle-aged cohort observed following the lifting of restrictions recovered in the last wave of SAM and remains stable. Source: ESRI Social Activity Measure for the Department of the Taoiseach 16
Wellbeing and Exercise No Walk/Run Prev Day Walk/Run Prev Day Walked, ran or cycled yesterday 5.3 60 5.2 5.2 50 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.1 40 38.7 5 5.0 % population Wellbeing 4.9 4.8 4.9 30 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.9 20 4.7 4.7 4.7 10 4.6 4.5 0 4.4 Apr Aug Nov Dec 4/1-11/1 Oct 18/2-25/1 01/2-08/2 15/2-18/2 01/3-09/3 Mar May Jun Jul Feb Sep The proportion of the population who reporting going for a walk, run or cycle in their local area recovered following the period of bad weather in late February but remains significantly lower than March 2021 (left chart). The rise in wellbeing in this wave is observed among those who recently exercised as well as those who haven’t, but the gap in wellbeing between these groups remains. Source: ESRI Social Activity Measure for the Department of the Taoiseach 17
Mental Health vs. Pre-Pandemic 40 4.4 37.4 36.7 34.4 34.9 4.3 35 33.3 33.1 33.9 33 32.4 32.2 33 4.2 (1=much worse, 7 = much better) Mental Health vs. Pre-Pandemic 30 4.1 25.9 4 25 % respondents 3.9 20 3.8 3.7 15 3.6 10 3.5 5 3.4 3.3 0 Jan Mar Apr May Aug Nov Dec Jun Jul Jan Oct Feb Sep 01/3-09/3 Feb Dec Jan Feb 01/3-09/3 Worse (1-3) Same (4) Better (5-7) The improvement in wellbeing is also observed when people are asked about their mental health compared to before the pandemic. The average response increased significantly in this round, driven by a 20% (7%-pt) drop in those reporting their mental health is worse compared to before the pandemic. Source: ESRI Social Activity Measure for the Department of the Taoiseach 18
Quality of Relationships & Social Life Family Friends Social Life (General) (1=very much worse, 7 = very much better) (1=very much worse, 7 = very much better) 4.6 3.7 3.5 4.4 3.3 4.2 Scaled to 1 SD Scaled to 1SD 3.1 Quality Quality 4.0 2.9 3.8 2.7 3.6 2.5 3.4 2.3 Judgements of the quality of relationships with friends and family continue to trend upwards, although the change since the previous wave is non-significant. There was a significant improvement in the overall quality of social lives in this wave, which has increased sharply (by almost half a standard deviation) since restrictions lifted. Source: ESRI Social Activity Measure for the Department of the Taoiseach 19
Social Life and Wellbeing Social Life is the Same/Better Social Life x Wellbeing (vs. pre-pandemic) 60 Worse Same/Better 51.6 5.8 50 5.6 41.6 38.8 5.4 40 36.8 Scaled to 1 SD 33.3 33.0 5.2 Wellbeing % adults 30 5 20 4.8 4.6 10 4.4 0 4.2 Perceived quality of social life is strongly linked to wellbeing. Part of the increase in general wellbeing may be linked to the increase in the proportion of people perceiving their social life to be the same or better than before the pandemic, which has increased by over 50% (19%-pts) since January. Source: ESRI Social Activity Measure for the Department of the Taoiseach 20
Social Life and Wellbeing Wellbeing by Social Life and Age Difference between Better and Worse SocLife Groups SocLife Worse SocLife Better 1.6 6.5 1.4 Difference in wellbeing 6 1.2 Average wellbeing Scaled to 1SD 1 Scaled to 2SDDs 5.5 0.8 5 0.6 4.5 0.4 4 0.2 3.5 0 u40 40-59 60+ u40 40-59 60+ The difference in wellbeing between those with a worse social life and those with the same or better social life is larger among younger people. Source: ESRI Social Activity Measure for the Department of the Taoiseach 21
Loneliness All Went Alone 40 4.5 40 35.7 34.2 33.7 35 33.21 32.8 34.0 33.9 4.3 35 % adults often lonely (5-7 out of 7) % adults very lonely (5-7 out of 7)* 30 (1=never, 7 = most of the time) 4.1 27.7 30 26.8 27.1 3.9 25 Recent Loneliness 25 3.7 3.7 3.7 20 20 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 15 15 3.3 10 10 3.1 2.9 5 5 2.7 0 0 Did Not Visit Visited Outdoor Location *Note this analysis pools all responses since January. Average frequency of loneliness also declined in this wave of SAM, with a significant drop in the percentage of the population reporting feeling lonely most of the time (5-7 on the scale). Visiting outdoor locations (e.g. parks) is linked with less frequent loneliness, even among those who visit outdoor locations alone. Source: ESRI Social Activity Measure for the Department of the Taoiseach 22
Loneliness 45 40.5 38.9 39.3 40 36.8 35.7 35 Gender, age, socio-economic 31.8 31.9 31.9 % in group very often lonely 29.5 29.3 29.4 grade and nationality are strong 30 predictors of loneliness. Age 23.3 shows the strongest relationship, 25 with 40% of under 40s giving a 20 score of 5-7 out of 7 compared to 23% of those over 60. 15 Among workers, those who report working from home report being 10 lonely more often than those not 5 working from home. Note this analysis pools all 0 responses since January. Men Women u40 40-59 60+ AB C1C2 DEF Irish Non-Irish Working Not WFH From Home Gender Age Socio-Economic Grade Nationality Workers Source: ESRI Social Activity Measure for the Department of the Taoiseach 23
Government Response to the Pandemic Government's reaction to the pandemic has been... 70 60 Views on the Government’s response 50 to the pandemic are unchanged with 40 the majority viewing it as % Too extreme appropriate. 30 Appropriate 20 Insufficient 10 0 Source: ESRI Social Activity Measure for the Department of the Taoiseach 24
Long-term expectations When do you think all restrictions will be lifted for good? 80 Around 60% of people now expect 70 restrictions to be lifted for good within 6 months. This is significantly 60 lower than the previous round of 50 SAM but note that the only remaining restrictions are the % 40 < 6 months requirement to isolate if 30 6-12 months symptomatic and to wear a mask in > a year healthcare settings. 20 10 0 Source: ESRI Social Activity Measure for the Department of the Taoiseach 25
Expectations for easing restrictions (next month) 100 Tightened a lot 90 Tightened a little 80 Looking to April, there was a No change 70 significant drop in the proportion of Eased 60 people expecting restrictions to % 50 ease further, with a corresponding 40 increase in the proportion that 30 believed restrictions would be 20 unchanged – as would be expected 10 given the recent lifting of all 0 restrictions other than mask- wearing in medical facilities and symptomatic self-isolation. Almost no respondents expect any tightening of restrictions in April. Source: ESRI Social Activity Measure for the Department of the Taoiseach 26
Return of Restrictions Respondents in this wave of Unlikely (1-3) Unsure (4) Likely (5-7) SAM were asked how likely 70 they thought restrictions could 70 62.7 be re-imposed for various 60 reasons. A majority believe 60 54.0 50.7 restrictions could be re- 50 50 imposed if another variant of % respondents 39.5 40 concern emerges. Around half 40 35.5 of people expect restrictions 30 could be re-imposed if 30 26.7 25.0 24.3 25.0 hospitalisations rise or for 20 19.3 19.4 17.9 20 seasonal changes. A minority 11.9 expect restrictions to be re- 10 10 imposed if cases rise. Looking across all reasons, just 0 0 over one-in-ten people believe Cases Rise Seasonal Hospitalisations New Variant of Unlikely (any restrictions are unlikely for any Changes Rise Concern reason) reason. Source: ESRI Social Activity Measure for the Department of the Taoiseach 27
Return of Restrictions Unlikely (1-3) Unsure (4) Likely (5-7) 80 Respondents were also asked about 70 67.8 the kinds of restrictions they think could be re-imposed. The only 60.0 60 57.9 restriction a majority thought likely 54.8 53.0 was the return of a requirement to 50 wear masks in some locations. % respondents 42.1 41.9 Responses over the likelihood of 40 38.1 37.3 34.8 36.0 hospitality restrictions (incl. Digital Covid Cert checks) and capacity 30 22.3 23.1 24.6 25.8 25.3 limits in indoor venues were 22.1 21.2 20 19.7 19.9 20.719.3 divided. 16.415.8 Most reported that it’s unlikely that 10 schools or hospitality will close, there will be reduced capacity at 0 outdoor venues or travel Masks in Some Covid Certs Reduced Hospitality Reduced Closure of Travel School restrictions will be re-imposed. Locations Capacity Restrictions Capacity Hospitality & Restrictions Closures Indoors Outdoors Indoor Venues (e.g. stay within county) Source: ESRI Social Activity Measure for the Department of the Taoiseach 28
Following coverage Following news about COVID-19 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 Jan Mar Apr May Aug Nov Dec 1/3-9/3 Jun Jul Oct 4/1-11/1 Feb Sep 18/1-25/1 01/2-08/2 15/2-22/2 The extent to which people are following the news about COVID-19 is at its lowest levels recorded since SAM started and has declined significantly since early February. Source: ESRI Social Activity Measure for the Department of the Taoiseach 29
Self-reported compliance Self Others 6.6 5.0 6.5 4.9 6.4 4.8 6.3 4.7 Score (1 to 7) Score (1 to 7) 6.2 4.6 6.1 4.5 6.0 4.4 5.9 4.3 5.8 4.2 5.7 4.1 5.6 4.0 Jan Mar Apr May Aug Nov Dec 1/3-9/3 Jun Jul Oct 4/1-11/1 Feb Sep 18/1-25/1 01/2-08/2 15/2-22/2 Jan Mar Apr May Aug Nov Dec 1/3-9/3 Jun Jul Oct 4/1-11/1 Feb Sep 18/1-25/1 01/2-08/2 15/2-22/2 Self-reported compliance with public health guidance and perceived compliance of other people increased slightly compared to previous wave, but the changes were not significant. Source: ESRI Social Activity Measure for the Department of the Taoiseach 30
Overall support for the public health effort Supportive of public health effort Support by age-group 100 100 95 95 90 90 85 85 % 80 % 80 60+ 75 40-59 75 18-39 70 70 65 65 60 60 Sep Jan Feb Oct Dec 1/3-9/3 Jun Jul Aug 18/1-25/1 01/2-08/2 15/2-22/2 Apr Nov 4/1-11/1 Mar May Sep Feb Oct Dec 1/3-9/3 Jun Jul Aug 18/1-25/1 01/2-08/2 15/2-22/2 Apr Nov 4/1-11/1 Mar May Overall support for the public health effort measured across a range of questions has remained stable, with no significant changes within age-groups. Source: ESRI Social Activity Measure for the Department of the Taoiseach 31
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