List of thematic articles published in the Global Economic Outlook - June / 2022

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List of thematic articles published in the Global Economic Outlook - June / 2022
List of thematic articles published in the
               Global Economic Outlook
                      ——— June / 2022

                                               List of thematic articles published in the Global Economic Outlook ——— June 2022

                                       www.cnb.cz
—— List of thematic articles                                                                                         2

2022
                                                                                                           Issue

Annual assessment of the forecasts included in GEO
                                                                                                           2022-06
(Filip Novotný a Petr Polák)

Economic impacts of a possible halt in the supply of energy commodities from Russia to Europe
                                                                                                           2022-05
(Martin Motl, Luboš Komárek, Jan Hošek and Soňa Benecká)

In the rythm of the music industry
                                                                                                           2022-04
(Michaela Ryšavá)

Developments in the European natural gas market
                                                                                                           2022-03
(Jan Hošek)

Container shipping in the time of Covid
                                                                                                           2022-02
(Milan Frydrych)

The risks associated with European export-oriented economies’ twin deficits
                                                                                                           2022-01
(Luboš Komárek a Petr Polák)

Czech National Bank ——— List of thematic articles published in the Global Economic Outlook ——— June 2022
—— List of thematic articles                                                                                         3

2021
                                                                                                           Issue

The recovery plan for Europe and its importance for the future of European integration
                                                                                                           2021-12
(Martin Kábrt and Pavla Netušilová)

EU foreign trade during the pandemic crisis
                                                                                                           2021-11
(Oxana Babecká Kucharčuková and Jan Brůha)

The end of the LIBOR era in financial markets: What lies ahead?
                                                                                                           2021-10
(Petr Polák)

Modelling the impacts of climate change on the global economy: Stagflationary shock looming
                                                                                                           2021-09
(Martin Motl a Jaromír Tonner)

The shortage of materials and components as a production-limiting and price-increasing factor
                                                                                                           2021-08
(Soňa Benecká)

Decentralised finance, its prospects and limits: Is blockchain interoperability the only obstacle?
                                                                                                           2021-07
(Alexis Derviz)

Outlooks in the pandemic year 2020 – where are world economies heading?
                                                                                                           2021-06
(Filip Novotný a Petr Polák)

Assessment of the impacts of the pandemic on the world’s major economies: A crisis of supply or
demand?                                                                                                    2021-05
(Jan Brůha, Martin Motl and Jaromír Tonner)

On a knife edge: Brexit and financial services?
                                                                                                           2021-04
(Michaela Ryšavá)

How accurate are oil price forecasts?
                                                                                                           2021-03
(Jan Hošek)

After the BITs: The uncertain future of international investment governance
                                                                                                           2021-02
(Martin Kábrt)

A network of national AMCs – part of the solution to the legacy of the financial crisis and the
coronavirus crisis?                                                                                        2021-01
(Luboš Komárek a Petr Polák)

Czech National Bank ——— List of thematic articles published in the Global Economic Outlook ——— June 2022
—— List of thematic articles                                                                                         4

2020
                                                                                                           Issue

Consumer and industrial prices in 2020 – the year of the coronavirus
                                                                                                           2020-12
(Petr Polák and Filip Novotný)

The fight between the Covid-19 pandemic and air transport has a clear winner so far: Are we facing
a historical change?                                                                                       2020-11
(Michaela Ryšavá)

International goods trade at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic from the perspective of
economic regions                                                                                           2020-10
(Ladislav Prokop)

A tale of two crises: An early comparison of foreign trade and economic activity in EU countries
                                                                                                           2020-09
(Oxana Babecká Kucharčuková and Jan Brůha)

The coal market and its future
                                                                                                           2020-08
(Jan Hošek)

Mortgage loan regulation instruments around the world
                                                                                                           2020-07
(Petr Polák and Luboš Komárek)

Annual assessment of the forecasts included in GEO
                                                                                                           2020-06
(Filip Novotný)

The fiscal policy reaction to Covid-19, or the fast way out of the crisis
                                                                                                           2020-05
(Petr Polák, Luboš Komárek, Pavla Netušilová a Ivana Polášková)

Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the world economy
                                                                                                           2020-04
(Martin Motl)

Stablecoins – a gateway between conventional and crypto financial universes?
                                                                                                           2020-03
(Alexis Derviz)

Regional disparities in selected EU countries
                                                                                                           2020-02
(Luboš Komárek and Jan Babecký)

An alternative look at China from satellites
                                                                                                           2020-01
(Soňa Benecká and Tomáš Adam)

Czech National Bank ——— List of thematic articles published in the Global Economic Outlook ——— June 2022
—— List of thematic articles                                                                                         5

2019
                                                                                                           Issue

The boom in short-term accommodation
                                                                                                           2019-12
(Petr Polák)

The economic slowdown in China and its impact on commodity markets
                                                                                                           2019-11
(Jan Hošek)

The automobile market slump in China: A global threat?
                                                                                                           2019-10
(Soňa Benecká)

Current account modelling – long-term trends and cyclical factors
                                                                                                           2019-9
(Oxana Babecká Kucharčuková and Jan Brůha)

What changes in financial intermediation are to be expected from fintech?
                                                                                                           2019-8
(Alexis Derviz)

Macron’s reforms: What has driven the yellow vest protesters to take to the streets?
                                                                                                           2019-7
(Pavla Růžičková)

Annual assessment of the forecasts included in GEO
                                                                                                           2019-6
(Filip Novotný)

The inverted yield curve in the USA: How much time is left until a recession?
                                                                                                           2019-5
(Martin Motl)

International reserves as a mirror of external effects and macroeconomic policies
                                                                                                           2019-4
(Soňa Benecká and Luboš Komárek)

How heavy a fiscal burden are we carrying to interest rate base camp? The fiscal and monetary
space in OECD countries                                                                                    2019-3
(Luboš Komárek)

Euro area industrial producer prices from the perspective of the oil price
                                                                                                           2019-2
(Soňa Benecká)

Euro area inflation hit the inflation target, but is everyone running at same pace?
                                                                                                           2019-1
(Tomáš Adam and Filip Novotný)

Czech National Bank ——— List of thematic articles published in the Global Economic Outlook ——— June 2022
—— List of thematic articles                                                                                         6

2018
2018                                                                                                       Issue

The contemporary role of gold in central banks’ reserves
                                                                                                           2018-12
(Iveta Polášková and Luboš Komárek)

The UK productivity puzzle: Why is productivity barely growing?
                                                                                                           2018-11
(Pavla Růžičková)

International trade developments with a focus on the EU
                                                                                                           2018-10
(Oxana Babecká Kucharčuková and Jan Brůha)

The liquefied natural gas (LNG) market
                                                                                                           2018-9
(Jan Hošek)

Ratings of highly indebted euro area countries
                                                                                                           2018-8
(Jana Hanzlíková and Luboš Komárek)

Cryptoassets vs. conventional investments at a time of low interest rates
                                                                                                           2018-7
(Alexis Derviz)

Annual assessment of the forecasts included in GEO
                                                                                                           2018-6
(Filip Novotný)

The uncovered interest parity condition in Consensus Forecasts
                                                                                                           2018-5
(Tomáš Adam and Filip Novotný)

Post-crisis heterogeneity across EU countries
                                                                                                           2018-4
(Oxana Babecká Kucharčuková and Jan Brůha)

Why is cash still popular? Evidence from OECD countries
                                                                                                           2018-3
(Michal Hlaváček, Luboš Komárek and Iveta Polášková)

The evolution of shadow rates in the light of the Taylor rule
                                                                                                           2018-2
(Soňa Benecká)

The ECB’s unconventional monetary policy and euro area monetary aggregates
                                                                                                           2018-1
(Tomáš Adam)

Czech National Bank ——— List of thematic articles published in the Global Economic Outlook ——— June 2022
—— List of thematic articles                                                                                         7

2017
2017                                                                                                       Issue

The position of direct investment dividends in EU countries’ balances of payments
                                                                                                           2017-12
(Ladislav Prokop)

The economic recovery and labour market developments in the USA
                                                                                                           2017-11
(Soňa Benecká)

The investment position – a composite indicator of a country’s net position vis-à-vis the rest of the
world                                                                                                      2017-10
(Vladimír Žďárský)

The real exchange rate phenomenon: What does it tell us about EU countries?
                                                                                                           2017-9
(Luboš Komárek)

Brexit a year after the referendum: What lies ahead? Predictions of the economic impacts
                                                                                                           2017-8
(Pavla Břízová)

Brexit a year after the referendum: The economic impacts on the United Kingdom so far
                                                                                                           2017-7
(Pavla Břízová)

Annual assessment of the forecasts included in GEO
                                                                                                           2017-6
(Filip Novotný)

Is the oil market approaching equilibrium?
                                                                                                           2017-5
(Jan Hošek)

Risks to global economic growth in the medium term
                                                                                                           2017-4
(Iveta Polášková)

The monetary and fiscal policy response space in OECD countries
                                                                                                           2017-3
(Luboš Komárek)

The effect of (un)conventional measures on shadow rates in the euro area and the USA
                                                                                                           2017-2
(Soňa Benecká)

The phenomenon of equilibrium real interest rates – is their fall temporary or permanent?
                                                                                                           2017-1
(Soňa Benecká, Pavla Břízová and Luboš Komárek)

Czech National Bank ——— List of thematic articles published in the Global Economic Outlook ——— June 2022
—— List of thematic articles                                                                                         8

2016
2016                                                                                                       Issue

The effect of the increased number of refugees on the German labour market
                                                                                                           2016-12
(Milan Klíma)

The relationship between the Brent oil price and the dollar exchange rate
                                                                                                           2016-11
(Filip Novotný)

The industrial producer price index in the EU
                                                                                                           2016-10
(Iveta Polášková)

The closing of the output gap in OECD countries in the current low-inflation environment
                                                                                                           2016-9
(Luboš Komárek)

Seasonal agricultural commodity price movements
                                                                                                           2016-8
(Martin Motl)

Inflation expectations in the USA: An illusion of a fall?
                                                                                                           2016-7
(Soňa Benecká)

Annual assessment of the forecasts included in GEO
                                                                                                           2016-6
(Filip Novotný)

International comparison of competitiveness using composite indicators
                                                                                                           2016-5
(Iveta Polášková)

How global inventory levels affect commodity prices
                                                                                                           2016-4
(Jan Hošek)

The Europe 2020 strategy: Will it be fulfilled?
                                                                                                           2016-3
(Pavla Břízová)

Changes in global imbalances in the world economy
                                                                                                           2016-2
(Luboš Komárek and Vladimír Žďárský)

The FDI life cycle on the example of the Czech Republic
                                                                                                           2016-1
(Filip Novotný)

Czech National Bank ——— List of thematic articles published in the Global Economic Outlook ——— June 2022
—— List of thematic articles                                                                                         9

2015
2015                                                                                                       Issue

The role of China in the slowdown in international trade
                                                                                                           2015-12
(Oxana Babecká Kucharčuková)

Central banks’ gold reserves
                                                                                                           2015-11
(Iveta Polášková)

Shadow policy rates – alternative quantification of unconventional monetary policy
                                                                                                           2015-10
(Soňa Benecká, Luboš Komárek and Filip Novotný)

The economic reforms of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi
                                                                                                           2015-9
(Pavla Břízová)

The Chinese renminbi in the SDR basket: A realistic prospect?
                                                                                                           2015-8
(Soňa Benecká)

Annual assessment of the forecasts included in GEO
                                                                                                           2015-7
(Filip Novoný)

Seasonal price movements in the commodity markets
                                                                                                           2015-6
(Martin Motl)

Assessment of the effects of quantitative easing in the USA
                                                                                                           2015-5
(Filip Novoný)

How consensus has evolved in Consensus Forecasts
                                                                                                           2015-4
(Tomáš Adam and Jan Hošek)

The US dollar’s position in the global financial system
                                                                                                           2015-3
(Luboš Komárek)

The crisis and post-crisis experience with Swiss franc loans outside Switzerland
                                                                                                           2015-2
(Alexis Derviz)

The effect of oil prices on inflation from a GVAR model perspective
                                                                                                           2015-1
(Soňa Benecká and Jan Hošek)

Czech National Bank ——— List of thematic articles published in the Global Economic Outlook ——— June 2022
—— List of thematic articles                                                                                         10

2014
2014                                                                                                       Issue

Applicability of Okun’s law to OECD countries and other economies
                                                                                                           2014-12
(Oxana Babecká Kucharčuková and Luboš Komárek)

Monetary policy normalisation in the USA
                                                                                                           2014-11
(Soňa Benecká)

Changes in FDI inflows and FDI returns in the Czech Republic and Central European countries
                                                                                                           2014-10
(Vladimír Žďárský)

Competitiveness and export growth in selected Central European countries
                                                                                                           2014-9
(Oxana Babecká Kucharčuková)

Developments and the structure of part-time employment by European comparison
                                                                                                           2014-8
(Eva Hromádková)

The future of natural gas
                                                                                                           2014-7
(Jan Hošek)

Annual assessment of the forecasts included in GEO
                                                                                                           2014-6
(Filip Novoný)

How far the V4 countries are from Austria: A detailed look using CPLs
                                                                                                           2014-5
(Václav Žďárek)

Heterogeneity of financial conditions in euro area countries
                                                                                                           2014-4
(Tomáš Adam)

The impacts of the financial crisis on price levels in Visegrad Group countries
                                                                                                           2014-3
(Václav Žďárek)

Is the threat of deflation real?
                                                                                                           2014-2
(Soňa Benecká and Luboš Komárek)

Forward guidance – another central bank instrument?
                                                                                                           2014-1
(Milan Klíma and Luboš Komárek)

Czech National Bank ——— List of thematic articles published in the Global Economic Outlook ——— June 2022
—— List of thematic articles                                                                                         11

2013

2013                                                                                                       Issue

Financialisation of commodities and the structure of participants on commodity futures markets
                                                                                                           2013-12
(Martin Motl)

The internationalisation of the renminbi
                                                                                                           2013-11
(Soňa Benecká)

Unemployment during the crisis
                                                                                                           2013-10
(Oxana Babecká a Luboš Komárek)

Drought and its impact on food prices and headline inflation
                                                                                                           2013-9
(Viktor Zeisel)

The effect of globalisation on deviations between GDP and GNP in selected countries over the last
two decades                                                                                                2013-8
(Vladimír Žďárský)

Competitiveness and determinants of travel and tourism
                                                                                                           2013-7
(Oxana Babecká)

Annual assessment of the forecasts included in GEO
                                                                                                           2013-6
(Filip Novotný)

Apartment price trends in selected CESEE countries and cities
                                                                                                           2013-5
(Michal Hlaváček a Luboš Komárek)

Selected leading indicators for the euro area, Germany and the United States
                                                                                                           2013-4
(Filip Novotný)

Financial stress in advanced economies
                                                                                                           2013-3
(Tomáš Adam a Soňa Benecká)

Natural gas market developments
                                                                                                           2013-2
(Jan Hošek)

Economic potential of the BRIC countries
                                                                                                           2013-1
(Luboš Komárek a Viktor Zeisel)

Czech National Bank ——— List of thematic articles published in the Global Economic Outlook ——— June 2022
—— List of thematic articles                                                                                         12

2012

2012                                                                                                       Issue

Global trends in the services balance 2005–2011
                                                                                                           2012-12
(Ladislav Prokop)

A look back at the 2012 IIF annual membership meeting
                                                                                                           2012-11
(Luboš Komárek)

The relationship between the oil price and key macroeconomic variables
                                                                                                           2012-10
(Jan Hošek, Luboš Komárek and Martin Motl)

US holdings of foreign securities versus foreign holdings of securities in the US: What is the trend?
                                                                                                           2012-9
(Narcisa Kadlčáková)

Changes in the Czech Republic’s balance of payments caused by the global financial crisis
                                                                                                           2012-8
(Vladimír Žďárský)

Annual assessment of the forecasts included in the GEO
                                                                                                           2012-7
(Filip Novotný)

A look back at the IIF spring membership meeting
                                                                                                           2012-6
(Filip Novotný)

An overview of the world’s most frequently used commodity indices
                                                                                                           2012-5
(Jan Hošek)

Property price misalignment around the world
                                                                                                           2012-4
(Michal Hlaváček and Luboš Komárek)

A macrofinancial view of asset price misalignment
                                                                                                           2012-3
(Luboš Komárek)

The euro area bond market during the debt crisis
                                                                                                           2012-2
(Tomáš Adam and Soňa Benecká)

Liquidity risk in the euro area money market and ECB operations
                                                                                                           2012-1
(Soňa Benecká)

Czech National Bank ——— List of thematic articles published in the Global Economic Outlook ——— June 2022
—— List of thematic articles                                                                                         13

2011

2011                                                                                                       Issue

An empirical analysis of monetary policy transmission in the Russian Federation
                                                                                                           2011-12
(Oxana Babecká)

The widening spread between prices of North Sea Brent crude oil and US WTI crude oil
                                                                                                           2011-11
(Jan Hošek and Filip Novotný)

A look back at the IIF annual membership meeting
                                                                                                           2011-10
(Luboš Komárek)

Where to look for a safe haven currency
                                                                                                           2011-9
(Soňa Benecká)

Monetary policy of the central bank of the Russian Federation
                                                                                                           2011-9
(Oxana Babecká)

Increased uncertainty in euro area financial markets
                                                                                                           2011-8
(Tomáš Adam and Soňa Benecká)

Eurodollar markets
                                                                                                           2011-8
(Narcisa Kadlčáková)

Assessment of the forecasts monitored in the GEO
                                                                                                           2011-7
(Filip Novotný)

How have global imbalances changed during the crisis?
                                                                                                           2011-6
(Vladimír Žďárský)

Winners and losers of the economic crisis in the eyes of European investors
                                                                                                           2011-5
(Alexis Derviz)

Monetary policy of the People’s Bank of China
                                                                                                           2011-4
(Soňa Benecká)

A look back at the IIF spring membership meeting
                                                                                                           2011-3
(Jan Hošek)

The link between the Brent crude oil price and the US dollar exchange rate
                                                                                                           2011-2
(Filip Novotný)

International integration of the Chinese stock market
                                                                                                           2011-1
(Jan Babecký, Luboš Komárek and Zlatuše Komárková)

Czech National Bank ——— List of thematic articles published in the Global Economic Outlook ——— June 2022
—— List of thematic articles                                                                               14

Czech National Bank ——— List of thematic articles published in the Global Economic Outlook ——— June 2022
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