EPP Party Barometer April 2021 - The Situation of the European People's Party in the EU - Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung
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EPP Party Barometer
April 2021
The Situation of the European People’s Party in the EU
(as of: 19 April 2021)
prepared by
Dr. Olaf Wientzek
(Graphic template: Janine www.kas.de
Höhle, HA Kommunikation,
Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung)Summary and latest developments (I)
• The EPP family has come out as the strongest political family in polls in 11
countries; the Party of European Socialists (PES) in 7 (if you add Slovakia’s Hlas, which
is not yet officially a PES member); Liberals/Renew in 2; far-right populists (ID) in Italy
and Finland; the Eurosceptic/national conservative ECR in Poland. In Hungary and
Latvia (combined), independent parties are front-running. No polls in terms of the
European Parliament/elections have taken place in France since the EP elections. In
the Czech Republic, several parties compete in electoral alliances. If STAN (EPP group
but not EPP party) is counted as part of the EPP family, the EPP, at 22.5%, would be
just ahead of ANO (22%), which is part of ALDE.
• The picture is similar if we look at the strongest single party and not the largest party
family: Then the EPP is ahead in 11 countries; the Socialists in 7; the Liberals in 3; far-
right populists (ID) in 3; the ECR in one country; Fidesz is in the lead in Hungary.
• 9 of the 27 heads of state and government in the European Council are currently
members of the EPP family (10 of 27 if you count the Slovak prime minister, whose
party belongs to the EPP group but not the EPP party); 7 heads of state and
government are members of the Liberals/Renew; 6 of the Social Democrats/Socialists;
one the Eurosceptic conservatives; 3 are formally independent.
• In many countries, the margin of the leading party family is extremely small (especially
in Belgium, Latvia, Lithuania, Ireland, Italy, Finland, Sweden, Spain).Summary and latest developments (II)
• In the Czech Republic (elections in 2021), the EPP parties KDU-CSL, TOP09 remain in the mid-
single digits; STAN (EPP group, not EPP party) stands at 12%. The parties take part in elections
as part of (different) party alliances.
• In Poland, the EPP parties cannot benefit from the relative weakness of the PiS.
• In Slovakia, approval for OL’aNO, the party of the Slovak prime minister (EPP group in the
European Parliament but not [yet] an EPP member), has declined substantially compared
with the election and stands now at around 10%.
• In Cyprus (elections in 2021), DISY is still the front runner, with a medium-sized lead, despite
slight losses.
• In Romania, the PNL only placed second behind the Socialists in the December 2020
elections but was able to form a government.
• In the Netherlands (elections in March 2021), the Christian Democrats attained 9.5% and
thus undercut their own expectations (previously: 12.4%)
• In Bulgaria, the GERB (elections in April 2021) was without any doubt the strongest force; yet
the outlook for forming a government is considered uncertain. Other EPP parties are
represented through competing electoral alliances in Parliament.
• A bright sign is the rise of the Danish Conservatives, who are the biggest opposition party in
polls, at approx. 15%-16%.
• The “COVID-19 management bonus” for government parties, which became apparent in the
2nd and 3rd quarters of 2020 in two-thirds of the EU countries, seems to have faded away.Consequences of Fidesz exit
• With Fidesz leaving (after two years suspended EPP membership), the EPP party family will
lose one head of government in the European Council and a member party that has been
consistently above 40% in the polls for many years.
• Despite the departure of Fidesz, the EPP has another member party in Hungary: the KDNP
(exact figures in terms of popularity cannot be determined owing to the alliance with Fidesz).
This means the EPP meets the claim it set itself, namely to have member parties in all EU
member states.
• In the European Parliament, the EPP group has lost 12 representatives, who are now without
any parliamentary faction. Fidesz’s departure from the group also impacts the seat forecast
in the event of EP elections.
– According to polls and taking in consideration the special features of EP elections, if
elections to the European Parliament were held today, the EPP group would win +/- 165
seats (23.4%), with a likely range of 156-176 seats, thus keeping its title as the largest
parliamentary group.
– The Socialists (S&D) would have 130-140 seats; Liberals (Renew) 85-95; the Green Party
(Green/EFA) approx. 70; Communists (GUE-NGL) approx. 50.
– Around 150 members would see themselves politically to the right of the EPP. The
formation of a single group is extremely unlikely in view of personal and substantive
incompatibilities.
• One parliamentary group composed of Lega, PiS and Fidesz as well as other ECR
parties (but without FDI, AfD, RN, AUR) would get approx. 80 seats and could
compete with the Liberals for 3rd place.
• For the EPP, there is a limited possibility of compensating for the loss of seats owing to the
exit of Fidesz by partnering with moderate, independent forces. Ideological overlaps can be
found with Szymon Holownia’s Polska 2050 party (in polls, usually the second most powerfulPicture credits: fotolia.com
Strongest political family
in national polls (April 2021)
Sweden
Finland
EPP family (shaded: membership suspended)
PES/S&D Family (Social Democrats, Socialists)
ACRE/ECR Family (Eurosceptic Conservatives)
Estonia
ALDE + Renew Family (Liberals)
Far-right populists (ID) Latvia
Misc. populists
Denmark
GUE/NGL (far-left populists) Lithuania
The Greens/EFA Ireland
Netherlands
Independents
Poland
No parliamentary polls since *Hlas is not yet a PES member but
the EP election the party largely consists of former
Germany Smer representatives, including
Slovakia* former prime minister Pellegrini
Belgium Czech Republic** ** In the Czech Republic, several parties
take part in the election in the form of
electoral alliances. If STAN (EPP group) is
Luxembourg included in the EPP family, the EPP, at
Austria Hungary 22.5%, would be just ahead of ALDE, which
4. Romania belongs to ANO (22%)
France
Slovenia
Italy
Croatia
Bulgaria
2.
1.
Portugal
Spain
Greece
Cyprus
Malta
Created by: Olaf WientzekPicture credits: fotolia.com
Strongest single party
in national polls (April 2021)
Sweden
Finland
EPP Family
PES/S&D Family (Social Democrats, Socialists)
ACRE/ECR Family (Eurosceptic Conservatives)
Estonia
ALDE + Renew Family (Liberals)
Far-right populists (ID et al.) Latvia
Misc. populists
Denmark
GUE/NGL (far-left populists) Lithuania
The Greens/EFA Ireland
Netherlands
Independents
Poland
Germany
Slovakia*
*Hlas is not yet a PES member but
the party largely consists of former
Belgium Czech Republic Smer representatives, including
former prime minister Pellegrini
Luxembourg
Austria Hungary
4. Romania
France
Slovenia
Italy
Croatia
Bulgaria
2.
1.
Portugal
Spain
Greece
Cyprus
Malta
Created by: Olaf WientzekStrength of the largest EPP partner party in each country
Picture credits: fotolia.com
Election results of the largest
EPP member party at the last
Sweden (2022)
national parliamentary election 19.84
as a percentage/next expected election date in brackets Finland (2023)
17.00
Legend Estonia (2023)
0 – 5% 11.41
Latvia (2022)
5 – 10%
6.69
10 – 15%
Denmark (2023)
15 – 20% Lithuania (2024)
6.60
Ireland (2025) 25.77
20 – 25%
20.90 Netherlands (2025)
25 – 30%
9.50
30 – 35% Poland (2023)
27.40**
35 – 40% Germany (2021)
Slovakia (2024)
40 – 50% 32.90
5.80 4.60 (25.02)
Belgium (2024) Czech Republic (2021)
8.89
Luxembourg (2023)
28.31 Hungary* (2022)
*In 2018, Fidesz was still a full
4.
49.27 Romania (2024) member of the EPP
France (2022) 25.19
22.23
Italy (2023)
14.01 Croatia (2024)
37.26 Bulgaria (2025)
2.
1.
26.18
Austria (2024)
Portugal (2023) 37.46
Spain (2023)
27.80 Greece (2023)
20.82 Slovenia (2022) 39.85
24.92
Cyprus (2021)
Malta (2022) 30.69
43.68
Created by: Olaf WientzekPicture credits: fotolia.com
Poll ratings of the strongest
EPP member parties as of: April 2021
Sweden (Mod.)
in percentage; in brackets, initials of the EPP party strongest in
the polls 22.80
Finland (KOK)
16.20
Legend
0 – 5% Estonia (IRL)
5.10
5 – 10%
Latvia (V)
10 – 15%
15.70
15 – 20%
Denmark (DKF)
Lithuania (TS-LKD)
20 – 25% 15.20
Ireland (FG) 23.50
25 – 30%
30.00 Netherlands (CDA)
30 – 35%
Poland (PO/KO)
35 – 40%
17.74
40 – 50% Germany (CDU/CSU)
Slovakia (KDH, (OLANO))
29.00 ** in the 2017 elections, the KDU-CSL
> 50% 6.50 5.70 (9.20) was still the strongest EPP partner party.
Belgium*** (CD&V) Czech Republic (TOP09**) In this poll, however, TOP09 is stronger
Very recently than the KDU-CSL.
held election or no 8.19
poll Luxembourg (CSV) *The KDNP is on the ballot with
25.70 Hungary* (KDNP) Fidesz; therefore, separate figures
since EP election are not determined
4.
Romania (PNL)
France (LR)
21.00
Italy (FI)
Croatia (HDZ)
7.50
34.89 Bulgaria (GERB)
2.
1.
Austria (ÖVP)
Portugal (PSD) 36.00
Spain (PP)
27.80 Greece (ND)
24.80 Slovenia (SDS) 41.30
27.70
Cyprus (DISY)
Malta (PN)
26.40
Created by: Olaf Wientzek 45.80Picture credits: fotolia.com
Comparison of the strongest EPP parties’ in the
April 2021 poll ratings
with the previous national election Sweden
+2.96
as a percentage; initials of the strongest EPP party in the polls Finland
in bold in brackets; regular in brackets, parties that belong to
-0.80
the EPP group but are not members of the EPP
Legend Estonia
-6.31
-10 to - 20%
Latvia
- 5 to - 10% +9.01
- 1 to - 5 % Denmark
Lithuania
- 1 to + 1% +8.60
Ireland -2.27
+ 1 to + 5%
+9.10 Netherlands
+ 5 to + 10 %
Poland
+ 10 to + 20 % -9.66
Germany
n.a. / Slovakia
-3.90
No polls since +1.10 (-15.82)
Czech Republic
since election, or Belgium***
+0.70
election took -0.70
place fewer than Luxembourg *The KDNP is on the ballot with
six weeks ago -2.61 Hungary* Fidesz; therefore, separate figures
4. Romania are not determined
France -4.19
Italy
Croatia
-6.51
-2.37 Bulgaria
2.
1.
Austria
Portugal -1.46
Spain
+-0 +3.98 Greece
Slovenia +1.45
+2.78
Cyprus
Malta
-4.29
Created by: Olaf Wientzek +2.12Strength of the EPP family in EU
member statesPicture credits: fotolia.com
Cumulated election results of all EPP parties at the
last national parliamentary elections
Sweden
as a percentage; in brackets, parties that belong to the EPP
26.16
group but are not members of the EPP
Finland
20.90
Legend
Estonia
0 – 5% 11.41
5 – 10% Latvia
10 – 15% 6.69
15 – 20% Denmark
Lithuania
8.30
20 – 25% Ireland 25.77
25 – 30% 20.90 Netherlands
9.50 (13.90)
30 – 35% Poland
United Kingdom 35.95*
35 – 40%
0.00 Germany
40 – 50% Slovakia
32.90
11.11 (16.41) 14.08 (39.10)
> 50% Belgium Czech Republic
12.59
Luxembourg
28.31 Hungary*
Romania *In 2018, Fidesz was still a full
4.
49.27 member of the EPP
France* 35.75
22.23
Italy
15.72 Croatia **EPP parties are in electoral
37.26 alliances with non-EPP parties in
Bulgaria** Bulgaria. The results attained by
2.
31.85 these alliances are divided by the
number of partners.
1.
Austria
Portugal 37.46
Spain
32.00 Greece
20.82 Slovenia 39.85
34.70
Cyprus
Malta 30.69
43.68
Created by: Olaf WientzekPicture credits: fotolia.com
Cumulated poll ratings of all EPP parties in
national polls as of: April 2021
Sweden (2022)
as a percentage; initials of the strongest EPP party in the polls
in bold in brackets; regular in brackets, parties that belong to 28.00
the EPP group but are not members of the EPP Finland (2023)
20.00
Legend
Estonia (2023)
0 – 5% 5.10
5 – 10% Latvia (2022)
15.70
10 – 15%
Denmark (2023)
15 – 20% Lithuania (2024)
16.50
23.50
20 – 25% Ireland (2025)
30.00 Netherlands (2025)
25 – 30%
30 – 35% Poland (2023)
23.69
35 – 40% Germany (2021)
Slovakia (2024)
40 – 50% 29.00
10.50 (22.50) 11.50
> 50% Belgium*** (2024) Czech Republic (2021) (20.70)
11.21
Luxembourg (2023) *The KDNP is on the ballot with
25.70 Hungary* Fidesz; therefore, separate figures
4.
Romania (2020) are not determined
France (2022) 30.00
Italy (2023)
Croatia (2024)
8.40
34.89 Bulgaria (2025)
2.
1.
Austria (2024)
Portugal (2023) 36.00
Spain (2023)
29.80 Greece (2023)
24.80 Slovenia (2022) 41.30
36.70
Cyprus (2021)
Malta (2022)
26.40
Created by: Olaf Wientzek 45.80Picture credits: fotolia.com
Comparison of April 2021 poll results
of all EPP parties compared to
last national elections (cumulative) Sweden
+1.84
Finland
as a
percentage -0.90
Legend
Estonia
-10 to - 20%
-6.31
- 5 to - 10%
Latvia
- 1 to - 5% +9.01
- 1 to + 1% Denmark
Lithuania
+ 1 to + 5% +8.20 -2.27
Ireland
+ 5 to + 10% +9.10 Netherlands
Above + 10%
Poland
No polls since -12.26
since election, or Germany
election took place Slovakia
-3.90
fewer than six Belgium*** -2.58 (-18.40)
Czech Republic
weeks ago -1.38
-0.61 (+6.09)
Luxembourg Austria *The KDNP is on the ballot with
-2.61 Hungary* Fidesz; therefore, separate figures
4.
-1.46 Romania are not determined
France -5.75
Italy
Croatia
-7.32
-2.37 Bulgaria
2.
1.
Portugal
Spain
-2.20 +3.98 Greece
Slovenia +1.45
+2.00
Cyprus
Malta -4.29
Created by: Olaf Wientzek +2.12The EPP family’s participation
in governmentPicture credits: fotolia.com
The participation of EPP family parties
EPP family, as at 18 April 2021
Sweden
Government without the participation of an EPP party, but
Finland
with a representative in the European Council
belonging to the EPP family
Parties in the EPP family participating in a government
Estonia
(from left bottom to right top hatched: possibly
outgoing government; participation unclear)
Latvia
Head of state/government
belongs to EPP family
Denmark ***The TS-LKD is the largest governing
(from left bottom to right top Lithuania*** party; prime minister Simonyte is not
hatched: affiliated with a party; however, she
possibly outgoing/incoming was the candidate for the office of
Ireland prime minister on the part of TS-LKD.
government) Netherlands
**The party to which Slovakia’s head of
Poland government belongs is part of the EPP
bloc in the European Parliament but is
not part of the EPP party
Germany
Slovakia**
Belgium Czech Republic
Luxembourg
Hungary
4. Romania
France
Italy
Croatia
Bulgaria
2.
1.
Austria
Portugal
Spain
Greece
Slovenia
Cyprus
Malta
Created by: Olaf WientzekPicture credits: fotolia.com
Heads of state or government according to
their political family (as of: 18 April 2021)
(the constitutionally stronger position is decisive and – Sweden
in the case of EU states – participation in the European Council)
Finland
EPP: Christian Democrats, Centre-Right Parties
PES/S&D: Social Democrats & Socialists
ACRE/ECR: Eurosceptic Conservatives
Estonia
ALDE +Renew (mainly Liberals)
A
The Greens/EFA Latvia
Misc. populists ****President Nauseda is independent,
Denmark prime minister Simonyte is not
Far-left populists (GUE/NGL) Lithuania*** affiliated with a party but she was the
candidate for the office of prime
Far-right populists Ireland minister on the part of TS-LKD.
Netherlands
Independents
Poland ** The party of Slovakia’s head of
government is part of the EPP group in
the European Parliament but is not part
Germany of the EPP party
Slovakia**
*Fidesz’s membership of the EPP was
Belgium Czech Republic suspended by both the EPP and
Fidesz on 20 March 2019.
Luxembourg
Hungary
4. Romania₁
France
Italy Croatia
Bulgaria
2.
1.
Austria
Portugal
Spain
Greece
Slovenia
Cyprus
Malta
Created by: Olaf WientzekPicture credits: fotolia.com
The EPP Family in the EU –
Which parties belong
to the EPP? Sweden
Moderaterna (MOD)
Kristdemokraterna (KD)
Finland
Kokoomus
(SK) KD
Estonia
Isamaa
Latvia
(Jauna) Vienotiba
Denmark
Lithuania
DKF (C)
Ireland TS-LKD
KD
Fine Gael Netherlands
CDA
Poland
PO
Germany PSL
Slovakia
CDU
CSU Czech Republic KDH
Belgium KDU-CSL
Most-Hid
CD&V, CDH, CSP² TOP 09
SMK
Luxembourg Spolu
Hungary
CSV 4.
KDNP Romania
PNL
France* PMP
Italy
Les Républicains Croatia RMDSZ/UDMR
Forza Italia
SVP HDZ Bulgaria
2.
AP GERB
UDC
1.
Austria BCM
Portugal PATT DSB
Spain ÖVP (NVP) PpI UDF
PSD Greece
PP Slovenia
CDS-PP SDS ND
N.Si
SLS
Cyprus
Malta DISY
Created by: Olaf Wientzek PNNotes
* In Poland, the two EPP parties each led alliances that also included non-EPP parties.
**In France, no polls for national parliamentary elections have been done since the elections in June 2017. The results refer to the
second round of parliamentary elections.
In order to obtain an adequate result at national level, these results were each weighted according to the number of eligible voters (there is compulsory voting).
Despite compulsory voting and the relatively similar number of voters at elections in the different regions, small deviations may occur. In Belgium, the CD&V, CSP
and CDH partner parties only compete regionally. The results in the individual regions are weighted accordingly. The CSP only competes in European elections. At
national elections, it is a part of the CDH since the Belgian parliament is composed according to regions (Flanders, Wallonia, Brussels) and not according to
language community. In Luxembourg, polls are conducted regionally. The results are weighted according to the number of voters (there is compulsory voting) in
order to calculate a party’s national strength. Despite compulsory voting and the relatively similar number of voters at elections in the different regions, small
deviations may occur.
Further notes:
In several countries (including Slovenia, Bulgaria and Latvia), undecided and non-voters are included as part of the total sum (100%) in the polls. The poll results
are extrapolated accordingly. Example: Party A has 13% in the polls. 30% of respondents will not vote, and 20% of the respondents are undecided. Accordingly,
support for Party A is reported to be 26%.
In Germany, the CDU and CSU are not listed as two separate parties owing to the fact they form a single parliamentary bloc and that their poll results are
always added together.
In several countries, parties are part of the EPP bloc without belonging to the EPP. Some of them even belong to other party families, for example, CU and 50
Plus in the Netherlands, STAN in Czech Republic and Olano in Slovakia. Their respective results are given in brackets.
Some of the parties in the ACRE family are right-wing populist or have strong right-wing populist elements. As the ACRE family is now (or is for the time being) a
mainstream party family, the parties belonging to it are listed as part of the ACRE family and not as “right-wing populist”. By contrast, the “right-wing populist”
category contains parties belonging to the ENF or the EFDD Group in the European Parliament, as well as other right-wing populist or right-wing extremist
forces.
1. Slide 16: The list usually refers to the heads of government. Heads of State (in the case of a government of a different party) are only indicated
(separately) if they are represented in the European Council (the case of Johannis in Romania). In the case of France, no participation of the EPP in the
government is indicated since the official EPP party LR is not in the government.
2. Slide 18: The CSP is not a member of the EPP but is part of the EPP group.
Sources for polls:
Ipsos (Belgium), Trend (Belgium), Voxmeter (Denmark) Emnid (Germany) Norstat (Estonia), Kantar TNS (Finland), IfoP (France), Pulse/RC (Greece), RedC (Ireland), EMG
(Italy), Ipsos (Croatia), Factum (Latvia), Spinter tymai (Lithuania), Sondesfro (Luxembourg), Malta Today (Malta), Ipsos (Netherlands) RA (Austria), Ibris for
Rzesczpospolita (Poland), eurosondagem (Portugal), CURS (Romania), Demoskop (Sweden), Focus (Slovakia), Mediana (Slovenia), NC Report (Spain), Kantar (Czech
Republic), Zavecz (Hungary), Symmetron (Cyprus)
Contact person
Dr. Olaf Wientzek
Email: olaf.wientzek@kas.de / olwien@hotmail.comYou can also read
