November 2020 EPP Party Barometer - EU The Situation of the European People's Party in the - Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
EPP Party Barometer
November 2020
The Situation of the European People’s Party in the
EU
(as of: 23 November 2020)
Dr Olaf Wientzek
(Graphic template: Janine www.kas.de
Höhle, HA Kommunikation,
Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung)Summary & latest developments (I)
• In national polls, the EPP family are the strongest political family in 12 countries (including
Fidesz); the Socialist political family in 6, the Liberals/Renew in 4, far-right populists (ID) in
2, and the Eurosceptic/national conservative ECR in 1. Added together, independent parties
lead in Latvia. No polls/elections have taken place in France since the EP elections.
• The picture is similar if we look at the strongest single party and not the largest party
family: then the EPP is ahead in 12 countries (if you include the suspended Fidesz), the
Socialists in 7, the Liberals in 4, far-right populists (ID) in 2, and the ECR in one land.
• 10 (9 without Orbán) of the 27 Heads of State and Government in the European
Council currently belong to the EPP family, 7 to the Liberals/Renew, 6 to the Social
Democrats / Socialists, 1 to the Eurosceptic conservatives, and 2 are formally
independent. The party of the Slovak head of government belongs to the EPP group but
not (yet) to the EPP party; if you include him in the EPP family, there would be 11
(without Orbán 10).
• In many countries, the lead is extremely narrow, or, depending on the polls, another party
family is ahead (including Italy, Sweden, Latvia, Belgium, Poland).Summary & latest developments (II)
• In Romania, the PNL (EPP) has a good starting position for the elections (Dec. 2020), but
the PSD is catching up in the polls. Nonetheless, the PNL is ahead with the prospect of
forming a coalition.
• In Bulgaria (elections in 2021), the popularity of GERB declined further (although, in other
polls, a recovery process began to show in November).
• In the Czech Republic (elections in 2021), KDU-CSL, TOP09 came again close to the 5%
mark; STAN (EPP group, not EPP party) stood at 7%-11.5%.
• In Poland, the PiS has lost a great deal in the polls; the EPP parties hardly benefit from this.
By contrast, the movement of the former presidential candidate Hołownia, roughly in the
centre-right political spectrum, holds its ground in the polls as the third-strongest force.
• In Slovakia, approval for OL‘ANO, the party of the former Slovak prime minister (EPP group
in the European Parliament, but not [yet] EPP member), has declined compared with the
election in the spring; however, it is still far ahead of the other EPP member parties.
• In Cyprus (elections in 2021), the DISY is ahead; the margin differs greatly, depending on
the poll, though.
• A clear victory for the TS-LKD in Lithuania in the parliamentary elections, whose candidate
(no party affiliation) holds the position of prime minister.
• In the Netherlands (elections in March 2021), the CDA is fluctuating around 10% and
competes with other parties for third place; well behind the VVD (ALDE) and the right-wing
populist PVV.Picture credits: fotolia.com
Strongest political family
in national polls (November 2020)
Sweden
Finland
EPP family (shaded: membership suspended)
PES/S&D Family (Social Democrats, Socialists)
ACRE/ECR Family (Eurosceptic Conservatives)
Estonia
ALDE + Renew Family (Liberals)
Far-right populists (ID et al.) Latvia
Misc. populists
Denmark
GUE/NGL (far-left populists) Lithuania
The Greens/EFA Ireland
Netherlands
Independents
No parliamentary polls since Poland
the EP election
Germany
Slovakia
Belgium Czech Republic
Luxembourg
Hungary*
4. Romania
France
Slovenia
Italy
Croatia
Bulgaria
2.
1.
Austria
Portugal
Spain
Greece
Cyprus
Malta
Created by: Olaf WientzekPicture credits: fotolia.com
Strongest single party
in national polls (November 2020)
Sweden
Finland
EPP Family
PES/S&D Family (Social Democrats, Socialists)
ACRE/ECR Family (Eurosceptic Conservatives)
Estonia
ALDE + Renew Family (Liberals)
Far-right populists (ID et al.) Latvia
Misc. populists
Denmark
GUE/NGL (far-left populists) Lithuania
The Greens/EFA Ireland
Netherlands
Independents
Poland
Germany
Slovakia
Belgium Czech Republic
Luxembourg
Hungary
4. Romania
France
Slovenia
Italy
Croatia
Bulgaria
2.
1.
Austria
Portugal
Spain
Greece
Cyprus
Malta
Created by: Olaf WientzekStrength of the largest EPP partner party in each country
Picture credits: fotolia.com
Election results of the largest
EPP member party at the last
Sweden (2022)
national parliamentary election 19.84
as a percentage/next expected election date in brackets
Finland (2023)
17.00
Legend
0 – 5%
Estonia (2023)
5 – 10% 11.41
10 – 15% Latvia (2022)
15 – 20% 6.69
20 – 25% Denmark (2023)
Lithuania (2024)
6.60
25 – 30% Ireland (2025) 25.77
30 – 35% 20.90 Netherlands (2021)
12.40
35 – 40% Poland (2023)
40 – 50% 27.40**
Germany (2021)
Slovakia (2024)
32.90
5.80 4.60 (25.02)
Belgium (2024) Czech Republic (2021)
8.89
Luxembourg (2023)
28.31 Hungary (2022)
49.27 Romania (2020)
4.
France (2022) 20.04
22.23
Italy (2023)
14.01 Croatia (2024)
37.26 Bulgaria (2021)
2.
1.
32.65
Austria (2024)
Portugal (2023) 37.54
Spain (2023)
27.80 Greece (2023)
20.82 Slovenia (2022) 39.85
24.92
Cyprus (2021)
Malta (2022) 30.69
43.68
Created by: Olaf WientzekPicture credits: fotolia.com
Poll ratings of the strongest
EPP member parties as of: November 2020
as a percentage/initials of the strongest EPP party in the polls in
bold & brackets//ratings of parties belonging to the EPP bloc but Sweden (Mod.)
not to the party shown as numerical value in brackets 22.40
Legend
Finland (KOK)
0 – 5%
16.60
5 – 10%
10 – 15%
Estonia (IRL)
15 – 20% 6.00
20 – 25% Latvia (V)
14.00
25 – 30%
Denmark (DKF)
30 – 35% Lithuania (TS-LKD)
9.50
35 – 40% Ireland (FG)
40 – 50% 31.00 Netherlands (CDA)
10.80
> 50% Poland (PO/KO)
Very recently 28.02
held election or no Germany (CDU/CSU)
Slovakia (KDH)
poll since EP election 36.00 ** in the 2017 elections, the KDU-CSL was
5.50 4.40 (16.60) still the strongest EPP partner party. In this
Belgium*** (CD&V) Czech Republic (TOP09**) poll, however, TOP09 is stronger than the
KDU-CSL.
6.62
Luxembourg (CSV) *Both the EPP and Fidesz agreed to
27.50 Hungary* (Fidesz) suspend Fidesz’s membership in the
4.
49.00 EPP on 20 March 2019
Romania (PNL)
32.60
France (LR)
Italy
6.60 (FI) Croatia (HDZ)
33.40 Bulgaria (GERB))
2.
1.
24.10
Austria (ÖVP)
Portugal PSD) 41.00
Spain (PP)
29.70 Greece (ND)
23.20 Slovenia (SDS) 45.00
29.39
Cyprus (DISY)
Malta (PN)
30.50
Created by: Olaf Wientzek 41.90Picture credits: fotolia.com
Comparison of the strongest EPP parties’ November 2020 poll
ratings with the previous national election
as a percentage/initials of the strongest EPP party in the polls in
bold & brackets//ratings of parties belonging to the EPP bloc but Sweden
not to the party shown as numerical value in brackets +2.56
Legend
Finland
-10 to - 20%
-0.40
- 5 to - 10%
- 1 to - 5 %
Estonia
- 1 to + 1% -5.41
+ 1 to + 5% Latvia
+7.31
+ 5 to + 10 %
Denmark
+ 10 to + 20 % Lithuania
+2.90
n.a. / Ireland
No polls since +10.10 Netherlands
since election, or -1.60
election took Poland
place fewer than +0.62
six weeks ago Germany
Slovakia
+3.10
Czech Republic -0.20 (-8.42)
Belgium***
+0.20
-2.27
Luxembourg*** *Both the EPP and Fidesz agreed to
-0.81 Hungary* suspend Fidesz’s membership in the
4. Romania EPP on 20 March 2019
France -0.27 +12.56
Italy
-7.41 Croatia
-3.86 Bulgaria
-8.55
2.
1.
Austria
Portugal +3.46
Spain
+1.90 +2.38 Greece
Slovenia +5.15
+4.47
Cyprus
Malta
-0.19
Created by: Olaf Wientzek -1.78Strength of the EPP family in
EU member statesPicture credits: fotolia.com
Cumulated election results of all EPP parties at the
last national parliamentary elections
as a percentage/initials of the strongest EPP party in the polls in Sweden
bold & brackets//ratings of parties belonging to the EPP bloc but 26.16
not to the party shown as numerical value in brackets
Legend Finland
20.90
0 – 5%
5 – 10%
Estonia
10 – 15%
11.41
15 – 20% Latvia
20 – 25% 6.69
25 – 30% Denmark
Lithuania
30 – 35% 8.30
Ireland 25.77
35 – 40% 20.90 Netherlands
40 – 50% 12.40 (18.80)
Poland
> 50% 35.95*
Germany
Slovakia
32.90
11.11 (16.41) 14.08 (39.10)
Belgium Czech Republic
12.59
Luxembourg
28.31 Hungary
4.
49.27 Romania
France* 31.58
22.23
Italy
15.72 Croatia
37.26 Bulgaria
2.
1.
35.71
Austria
Portugal 37.46
Spain
32.00 Greece
20.82 Slovenia 39.85
34.70
Cyprus
Malta 30.69
43.68
Created by: Olaf WientzekPicture credits: fotolia.com
Cumulated poll ratings of all EPP parties in
national polls as of: November 2020
as a percentage/initials of the strongest EPP party in the polls in
bold & brackets//ratings of parties belonging to the EPP bloc but Sweden (2022)
not to the party shown as numerical value in brackets 29.30
Legend
Finland (2023)
0 – 5%
20.60
5 – 10%
10 – 15%
Estonia (2023)
15 – 20% 6.00
20 – 25% Latvia (2022)
14.00
25 – 30%
Denmark (2023)
30 – 35% Lithuania (2024)
12.00
35 – 40% Ireland (2025)
40 – 50% 31.00 Netherlands (2021)
10.80 (16.20)
> 50% Poland (2023)
33.83
Germany (2021)
Slovakia (2024)
36.00
9.50 (20.50) 9.20 (25.80)
Belgium*** (2024) Czech Republic (2021)
9.89
Luxembourg*** (2023) *Both the EPP and Fidesz agreed to
27.50 Hungary* (2022) suspend Fidesz’s membership in the
4.
49.00 Romania(2020) EPP on 20 March 2019
France (2022) 42.50
Italy (2023)
Croatia (2024)
7.20
33.40 Bulgaria (2021)
2.
1.
32.90
Austria (2024)
Portugal (2023) 41.00
Spain (2023)
32.40 Greece (2023)
23.20 Slovenia (2022) 45.00
38.04
Cyprus (2021)
Malta (2022) 30.50
Created by: Olaf Wientzek 41.90Picture credits: fotolia.com
Comparison of November 2020 poll results
of all EPP parties compared to
last national elections (cumulative) Sweden
+3.14
Legend
Finland
-10 to - 20%
-0.30
- 5 to - 10%
- 1 to - 5%
Estonia
- 1 to + 1% -5.41
+ 1 to + 5% Latvia
+7.31
+ 5 to + 10%
Denmark
Above + 10% Lithuania
+3.70
No polls since Ireland
since election, or
+10.10 Netherlands
election took place -1.60 (-2.60)
fewer than six weeks
Poland
ago
-2.12
Germany
Slovakia
+3.10
Belgium*** Czech Republic -4.88 (-13.30)
+2.60 -1.61 (+4.09)
Luxembourg *Both the EPP and Fidesz agreed to
-0.81 Hungary* suspend Fidesz’s membership in the
4.
-0.27 Romania EPP on 20 March 2019
France +10.92
Italy
Croatia
-8.52
-3.86 Bulgaria
2.
1.
-2.81
Austria
Portugal +3.46
Spain
+0.40 +2.38 Greece
Slovenia +5.15
+3.34
Cyprus
Malta -0.19
Created by: Olaf Wientzek -1.78Does the “COVID-19 crisis effect” continue?
Does the “COVID-19 crisis effect”
continue?
• Short answer: noticeable reduction of the “COVID-19 crisis effect”, i.e. the support for the party of
the head of government or head of state that could often still be observed at the beginning of the
crisis is now only observed in a minority of EU countries.
• Long answer: In 6-7 EU countries where polls have been conducted since the outbreak of the
COVID-19 pandemic, the party of the incumbent head of state or government can report a
significant boost in support compared to March 2020 (in the case of France, only support for the
president can be measured).
– In a few countries, the largest government party even lost support; but in many cases, this is
likely not due to the perception of the COVID-19 management but to other factors (new
government, protests over other issues).
– In some countries, a decline in the COVID-19 boost has already been observed (compared to
August or May); in countries in which it still continues, the level is often lower than in May or in
August.
– In Germany, this effect is quite pronounced in a European comparison.
– Junior coalition partners profit significantly less frequently from the COVID-19 solidarity effect.
– In general, changes in the polls may also involve aspects that are NOT related to the
government’s COVID-19 management.Picture credits: fotolia.com
Comparison of the poll ratings of the head of state/government’s party
or the largest governing party (IT, LIT), March vs. November 2020
A number of polls were considered here. Ratings prior to the coronavirus
and current poll ratings are compared. Shaded: Polls exhibit a mixed Sweden
picture
Legend
Finland
Very negative (losses of more than 10%)
Negative (losses of 5 to 10%)
Lower losses (2 to 5%)
Estonia
No significant change or varied data
Slightly positive (up to 5%) Latvia
Positive (+ 5 to + 10%)
Denmark
Extremely positive (gains Lithuania *In Ireland, the prime minister will
switch between FG and FF; currently, FG
of more than 10%) in a strong position; FF (has currently
n.a. / Ireland* the office of Taoiseach) similar to
No new poll Netherlands March.
**As no up-to-date polls are available
since election, or from France, the comparison only
election took place Poland relates to the regularly surveyed
fewer than six weeks - popularity of the president
ago Germany
Slovakia *** The prime minister of Italy is not
affiliated with a party. The popularity in
Czech Republic this case relates to the largest
Belgium government party.
Luxembourg
Hungary
4. Romania
France**
Italy***
Croatia
Bulgaria
2.
1.
Austria
Portugal
Spain
Greece
Slovenia
Cyprus
Malta
Created by: Olaf WientzekPicture credits: fotolia.com
Comparison of the poll ratings of the head of state/government’s party
or the largest governing party (IT, LIT), March vs. August 2020
A number of polls were considered here. Ratings prior to the coronavirus
and current poll ratings are compared. Shaded: Polls exhibit a mixed Sweden
picture
Legend
Finland
Very negative (losses of more than 10%)
Negative (losses of 5 to 10%)
Lower losses (2 to 5%)
Estonia
No significant change or varied data
Slightly positive (up to 5%) Latvia
Positive (+ 5 to + 10%)
Denmark
Extremely positive (gains Lithuania***
of more than 10%)
n.a. / Ireland (only based on FG) *No polls since the beginning of the
corona crisis
No polls since Netherlands
**As no up-to-date polls are available
election or formation from France, the comparison only
of government, or Poland relates to the regularly surveyed
elections took place - popularity of the president
fewer than 6 weeks Germany
ago Slovakia *** The prime ministers of Italy and
Lithuania are independent. In this case,
Czech Republic the poll ratings relate to the largest
Belgium* governing party or the party the prime
ministers belonged to previously
Luxembourg*
Hungary
4. Romania
France**
Italy***
Croatia
Bulgaria*
2.
1.
Austria
Portugal
Spain
Greece
Slovenia
Cyprus
Malta
Created by: Olaf WientzekPicture credits: fotolia.com
Comparison of the poll ratings of the head of state/government’s party
or the largest governing party (IT, LIT), March vs. May 2020
A number of polls were considered here. Ratings prior to the coronavirus
and current poll ratings are compared. Shaded: Polls exhibit a mixed Sweden
picture
Legend
Finland
Very negative (losses of more than 10%)
Negative (losses of 5 to 10%)
Lower losses (2 to 5%)
Estonia
No significant change or different data
Slightly positive (up to 5%) Latvia
Positive (+ 5 to + 10%)
Denmark
Extremely positive (gains Lithuania***
of more than 10%) *No polls since the beginning of the
n.a. / Ireland corona crisis
No polls since Netherlands
**As no up-to-date polls are available
since election, or from France, the comparison only
election took Poland relates to the regularly surveyed
place fewer than - popularity of the president
six weeks ago Germany
Slovakia *** The prime ministers of Italy and
Lithuania are independent. In this case,
Czech Republic the poll ratings relate to the largest
Belgium* governing party or the party the prime
ministers belonged to previously
Luxembourg*
Hungary
4. Romania
France**
Italy***
Croatia
Bulgaria*
2.
1.
Austria
Portugal
Spain
Greece
Slovenia
Cyprus*
Malta
Created by: Olaf WientzekThe EPP family’s participation
in governmentPicture credits: fotolia.com
The participation of EPP family parties
in government,
as of 25 November 2020₁ Sweden
Finland
Government without the participation of an EPP party, but
with a representative in the European Council
belonging to the EPP family Estonia
Parties in the EPP family
involved in government (shaded top left to bottom right: Latvia
outgoing government; participation unclear)
Head of state/government belongs
to the EPP family (shaded top left to bottom right: Denmark
Lithuania*** ***The TS-LKD is the largest
outgoing/incoming government) governing party; prime minister
Simonyte is not affiliated with a
Ireland party; however, she was the
Netherlands
candidate for the office of prime
minister on the part of TS-LKD.
Poland
Germany
Slovakia** **The party to which Slovakia’s head
of government belongs is part of
Belgium the EPP bloc in the European
Czech Republic
Parliament but is not part of the EPP
party
Luxembourg *Both the EPP and Fidesz agreed to
Hungary* suspend Fidesz’s membership in the
4. Romania EPP on 20 March 2019
France
Italy
Croatia
Bulgaria
2.
1.
Austria
Portugal
Spain
Greece
Slovenia
Cyprus
Malta
Created by: Olaf WientzekPicture credits: fotolia.com
Heads of State or Government and
their political family (as of: 25 November 2020)
(The constitutionally stronger position
and, in the case of EU countries,
participation in the European
Sweden
Council is reflected on the map)
Finland
EPP: Christian Democrats, Centre-Right Parties
PES/S&D: Social Democrats & Socialists
ACRE/ECR: Eurosceptic Conservatives
Estonia
A
ALDE +Renew (mainly Liberals)
The Greens/EFA Latvia
Misc. populists
****President Nauseda is
Denmark independent, prime minister
Far-left populists (GUE/NGL) Lithuania****
Simonyte is not affiliated with a
Ireland party, but she was the candidate for
Far-right populists the office of prime minister on the
Netherlands part of TS-LKD.
Independents
*** outgoing (presumably) head of
Poland government.
Germany
Slovakia** **The party to which Slovakia’s head
of government belongs is part of
Belgium*** the EPP bloc in the European
Czech Republic
Parliament but is not part of the EPP
party
Luxembourg
Hungary*
4. Romania₁ *Both the EPP and Fidesz agreed to
suspend Fidesz’s membership in the
France EPP on 20 March 2019
Italy² Croatia
Bulgaria
2.
1.
Austria
Portugal
Spain
Greece
Slovenia
Cyprus
²Conte is independent but is Malta
Created by: Olaf Wientzek closely affiliated with the Five Star MovementPicture credits: fotolia.com
The EPP Family in the EU –
Which parties belong
to the EPP? Sweden
Moderaterna (MOD)
Kristdemokraterna (KD)
Finland
Kokoomus
(SK) KD
Estonia
Isamaa
Latvia
Vienotiba
Denmark
Lithuania
DKF (C)
Ireland TS-LKD
KD
Netherlands
Fine Gael CDA
Poland
PO
Germany PSL
Slovakia
CDU
CSU Czech Republic KDH
Belgium KDU-CSL
Most-Hid
CD&V, CDH, CSP² TOP 09
SMK
Luxembourg Spolu
CSV Hungary
Romania *Both the EPP and Fidesz agreed to
Fidesz* /
4.
suspend Fidesz’s membership in the
France* PNL
KDNP EPP on 20 March 2019
Les Républicains PMP
Italy
Croatia RMDSZ
Forza Italia
SVP HDZ Bulgaria
2.
AP GERB
UDC
1.
Austria BCM
Portugal PATT DSB
Spain ÖVP (NVP) PdI UDF
PSD Greece
PP Slovenia
CDS-PP SDS ND
N.Si
SLS
Cyprus
Malta DISY
Created by: Olaf Wientzek PNNotes
* In Poland, the two EPP parties each led alliances that also included non-EPP parties.
** In France, no polls for national parliamentary elections have been conducted since the parliamentary elections in June 2017. The results relate to the second round of the parliamentary elections.
*** Polls conducted at regional level. In order to obtain an adequate result at national level, these results were each weighted according to the number of eligible voters (there is compulsory voting).
Despite compulsory voting and the relatively similar number of voters at elections in the different regions, small deviations may occur. In Belgium, the CD&V, CSP and CDH partner parties only
compete regionally. The results in the individual regions are weighted accordingly. The CSP only competes in European elections. At national elections, it is a part of the CDH since the Belgian
parliament is composed according to regions (Flanders, Wallonia, Brussels) and not according to language community. Despite compulsory voting and the relatively similar number of voters at
elections in the different regions, small deviations may occur.
Further notes:
In several countries (including Slovenia, Bulgaria and Latvia), undecided and non-voters are included as part of the total sum (100%) in the polls. The poll results are extrapolated accordingly.
Example: Party A has 13% in the polls. 30% of respondents will not vote and 20% of the respondents are undecided. Accordingly, support for Party A is reported to be 26%.
In Germany, the CDU and CSU are not listed as two separate parties owing to the fact they form a single parliamentary bloc and that their poll results are always added together.
In several countries, parties are part of the EPP bloc without belonging to the EPP. Some of them even belong to other party families, for example, CU and 50 Plus in the Netherlands,
STAN in Czech Republic and OL’ANO in Slovakia. Their respective results are given in brackets.
Some of the parties in the ACRE family are right-wing populist or have strong right-wing populist elements. As the ACRE family is now (or is for the time being) a mainstream party family, the
parties belonging to it are listed as part of the ACRE family and not as “right-wing populist”. By contrast, the “right-wing populist” category contains parties belonging to the ENF or the EFDD Group
in the European Parliament, as well as other right-wing populist or right-wing extremist forces.
1 The list usually refers to the heads of government. Heads of state (where the government’s political affiliation is divergent) are only shown (separately) when they are represented in the
European Council (e.g. Klaus Johannis in Romania). In the case of France, the EPP is not shown as participating in government as the EPP’s official party there is not part of the government.
Sources for polls: Ipsos (Belgium), Trend (Bulgaria), Voxmeter (Denmark), Forsa (Germany), Norstat (Estonia), Tal (Finland), IfoP (France), Pulse/RC (Greece), BA (Ireland), Euromedia (Italy), Promocija Pius
(Croatia), Factum (Latvia), Spinter tymai (Lithuania), Sondesfro (Luxembourg), Malta Today (Malta), Ipsos (Netherlands) RA (Austria), Ibris (Poland), eurosondagem (Portugal), IMAS (Romania),
Demoskop (Sweden), AKO (Slovakia), Ninamedia (Slovenia), NC Report (Spain), Kantar (Czech Republic), Zavecz (Hungary), Prime (Cyprus)
Contact person
Dr Olaf Wientzek
Email: olaf.wientzek@kas.de / olwien@hotmail.comYou can also read
