August 2020 EPP Party Barometer - The Situation of the European People's Party in - Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung
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EPP Party Barometer
August 2020
The Situation of the European People’s Party in
the EU
(as of: 12 August 2020)
prepared by
Dr Olaf Wientzek
(Graphic template: Janine www.kas.de
Höhle, HA Kommunikation,
Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung)Summary and latest developments
• In national polls, the EPP is the strongest political family in 11 countries (including the
Hungarian Fidesz), the socialist political family in 6, the liberals/Renew in 3, far-right
populists (ID) in 2, the Eurosceptic/national conservative ECR in 1, and the European
Left / left-wing populists in 1. Added together, independent parties lead in Latvia.
Slovakia is a special case: depending on where the Slovakian ‘Ordinary People’ party,
represented in the EPP Group but not belonging to the EPP, is located, either the
Independents or the EPP get another country added. No (parliamentary)
polls/elections have taken place in France since the EP elections
• The picture is similar if we look at the strongest single party and not the largest
party family (Slide 5): Then the EPP leads in 11–12 countries (including Fidesz), the
Socialists in 6–7 (in Latvia the EPP and Socialists are equal), Liberals in 3, right-wing
populists (ID) in 2, EKR and European Left / left-wing populists in 1 each. See above re:
Slovakia.
• 10 (9 without Orban) of the 27 Heads of State and Government in the European
Council currently belong to the EPP family, 7 to the Liberals/Renew, 6 to the Social
Democrats / Socialists, 1 to the Eurosceptic conservatives, and 2 are formally
independent. The Slovakian Head of Government’s party belongs to the EPP bloc but
does not belong to the EPP as a party.
• In many countries the lead is extremely narrow, or in some polls another party family
is ahead (especially Sweden, Finland, Lithuania, Latvia, Ireland, Belgium, Poland).Picture credits: fotolia.com
Strongest political family
in national polls (August 2020)
Sweden
Finland
EPP family (shaded: membership suspended)
PES/S&D Family (Social Democrats, Socialists)
ACRE/ECR Family (Eurosceptic Conservatives)
Estonia
ALDE + Renew Family (Liberals)
Far-right populists (ID et al.) Latvia
Misc. populists
Denmark
GUE/NGL (far-left populists) Lithuania
The Greens/EFA Ireland
Netherlands
Independents Poland: Scenario which presumes
that former presidential candidate
No polls since Poland Holownia runs with his new
movement
the EP election
Germany
Slovakia
Belgium Czech Republic
Luxembourg
Hungary*
4. Romania
France
Slovenia
Italy
Croatia
Bulgaria
2.
1.
Austria
Portugal
Spain
Greece
Cyprus
Malta
Created by: Olaf WientzekPicture credits: fotolia.com
Strongest single party
in national polls (August 2020)
Sweden
Finland
EPP Family
PES/S&D Family (Social Democrats, Socialists)
ACRE/ECR Family (Eurosceptic Conservatives)
Estonia
ALDE + Renew Family (Liberals)
Far-right populists (ID et al.) Latvia
Misc. populists
Denmark
GUE/NGL (far-left populists) Lithuania
The Greens/EFA Ireland
Netherlands
Independents
Poland
Germany
Slovakia
Belgium Czech Republic
Luxembourg
Hungary
4. Romania
France
Slovenia
Italy
Croatia
Bulgaria
2.
1.
Austria
Portugal
Spain
Greece
Cyprus
Malta
Created by: Olaf WientzekStrength of the EPP family in EU member states
Picture credits: fotolia.com
Cumulated election results of all EPP parties at the
last national parliamentary elections
as a percentage/initials of the strongest EPP party in the polls Sweden
in bold & brackets//ratings of parties belonging to the EPP bloc 26.16
but not to the party shown as numerical value in brackets
Legend Finland
20.90
0 – 5%
5 – 10%
Estonia
10 – 15%
11.41
15 – 20% Latvia
20 – 25% 6.69
25 – 30% Denmark
Lithuania
30 – 35% 8.30
Ireland 22.63
35 – 40% 20.90 Netherlands
40 – 50% 12.40 (18.80)
Poland
> 50% United Kingdom 35.95
0.00 Germany
Slovakia
32.90
11.11 (16.41) 14.08 (39.10)
Belgium Czech Republic
12.59
Luxembourg
28.31 Hungary
4.
49.27 Romania
France* 31.58
22.23
Italy
15.72 Croatia
37.26 Bulgaria
2.
1.
35.71
Austria
Portugal 37.46
Spain
32.00 Greece
20.82 Slovenia 39.85
34.70
Cyprus
Malta 30.69
43.68
Created by: Olaf WientzekPicture credits: fotolia.com
Cumulated poll ratings of all EPP parties in
national polls as of: August 2020
as a percentage/initials of the strongest EPP party in the polls
in bold & brackets//ratings of parties belonging to the EPP bloc Sweden (2022)
but not to the party shown as numerical value in brackets 27.20
Legend
Finland (2023)
0 – 5%
20.90
5 – 10%
10 – 15%
Estonia (2023)
15 – 20% 6.40
20 – 25% Latvia (2022) The Latvian JKP announced in the
European Parliament that it wanted to join
16.00 the EPP bloc but is not yet part of the EPP.
25 – 30%
It is currently on 11% in the polls
Denmark (2023)
30 – 35% Lithuania (2020)
9.50
35 – 40% Ireland (2025) 22.84
40 – 50% 29.00 Netherlands (2021)
Poland: Scenario which presumes
11.30 (16.64) that former presidential candidate
> 50% Poland (2023) Holownia runs with his new
movement
34.09
Germany (2021)
Slovakia (2024)
38.00
10.00 (16.00) 8.70 (32.20)
Belgium*** (2019) Czech Republic (2021)
10.22
Luxembourg*** (2023) *Fidesz’s membership of the EPP was
27.50 Hungary* (2022) suspended by both the EPP and
4.
51.00 Romania(2020) Fidesz on 20 March 2019
France (2022) 42.90
Italy (2023)
Croatia (2024)
7.00
Bulgaria (2021)
2.
1.
39.00
Austria (2024)
Portugal (2023) 41.00
Spain (2023)
28.80 Greece (2023)
25.20 Slovenia (2022) 46.50
37.57
Cyprus (2021)
Malta
38.90
Created by: Olaf Wientzek 41.00Picture credits: fotolia.com
Comparison of August 2020 poll results
of all EPP parties compared to
last national elections (cumulative) Sweden
as a percentage
+1.04
Legend
Finland
-10 to - 20%
+-0
- 5 to - 10%
- 1 to - 5%
Estonia
- 1 to + 1% -5.01
+ 1 to + 5% Latvia
+9.31
+ 5 to + 10%
Denmark
Above + 10% Lithuania
+1.20
No polls since +0.21
Ireland
election or election
+8.10 Netherlands
took place fewer -1.10 (-2.16) Poland: Scenario which presumes
than six weeks ago that former presidential candidate
Poland Holownia runs with his new
-1.86 movement
Germany
Slovakia
+5.10
Belgium*** Czech Republic -5.38 (-6.90)
+2.37 -1.11 (-0.41)
Luxembourg *Fidesz’s membership of the EPP was
-0.81 Hungary* suspended by both the EPP and
4.
+1.73 Romania Fidesz on 20 March 2019
France +11.32
Italy
Croatia
-8.72
Bulgaria
2.
1.
+3.29
Austria
Portugal +3.54
Spain
-3.20 +4.38 Greece
Slovenia +6.65
+2.87
Cyprus
Malta +8.21
Created by: Olaf Wientzek -2.68Will the “corona crisis effect” continue?
Will the “corona crisis effect” continue?
• Short answer: For the most part yes, but not to the same extent as in May
• Long answer: In 16 of the 27 EU countries, the party of the incumbent head of state or
government can report a significant boost in support compared to March 2020 (in the case of
France, only support for the president can be measured), so one can to a certain extent speak
of a solidarity effect
– In only a few countries has the largest ruling party lost support
• Romania (although coming from a very high level), Slovakia (although the government
only took office until March), Bulgaria (current protests are focussed on non-corona
issues)
– It is evident that the corona crisis boost is already subsiding in some countries. This
is also happening in countries where this effect is still persisting – but now to a lesser
extent than in May
– in Germany, the increase in support for the larger governing party is – in comparison to
other European countries – very pronounced
– Junior coalition partners profit much less frequently from the COVID-19 solidarity effect
– In some countries with a low polling frequency (Cyprus, Luxembourg, Belgium), the term
“corona crisis effect” should be used with great caution.
– In general, changes in the polls may also involve aspects that are NOT related to coronaPicture credits: fotolia.com
Comparison of the poll ratings of the head of state/government’s party
or the largest governing party (IT, LIT), March vs. August 2020
A number of polls were considered here. Ratings prior to the
coronavirus and current poll ratings are compared. Shaded: Polls Sweden
exhibit a mixed picture
Legend
Finland
Very negative (losses of more than 10%)
Negative (losses of 5 to 10%)
Lower losses (2 to 5%)
Estonia
No significant change or contradictory results
Slightly positive (up to 5%) Latvia
Positive (+ 5 to + 10%)
Denmark
Extremely positive (gains Lithuania***
of more than 10%)
Unknown/ / Ireland (only based on FG) *No polls since the beginning of the
corona crisis
No polls since Netherlands
**As no up-to-date polls are available
election or from France, the comparison only
election took Poland relates to the regularly surveyed
place fewer than popularity of the president
six weeks ago Germany
Slovakia *** The prime ministers of Italy and
Lithuania are independent. In this
Czech Republic case, the poll ratings relate to the
Belgium largest governing party or the party
the prime ministers belonged to
previously
Luxembourg
Hungary
4. Romania
France**
Italy***
Croatia
Bulgaria*
2.
1.
Austria
Portugal
Spain
Greece
Slovenia
Cyprus
Malta
Created by: Olaf WientzekThe EPP family’s participation
in governmentPicture credits: fotolia.com
The participation of EPP family parties
in government,
as of 12 August 2020₁ Sweden
Finland
Government without the participation of an EPP party, but
with a representative in the European Council
belonging to the EPP family Estonia
Parties in the EPP family
involved in government (shaded top left to bottom right: Latvia
outgoing government; participation unclear)
Head of state/government belongs
to EPP family Denmark
Lithuania
Ireland
Netherlands
Poland
United Kingdom
Germany
Slovakia** **The party to which Slovakia’s head of
government belongs is part of the EPP
Group in the European Parliament but
Belgium Czech Republic is not part of the EPP party
Luxembourg *Fidesz’s membership of the EPP was
Hungary* suspended by both the EPP and
4. Romania Fidesz on 20 March 2019
France
Italy
Croatia
Bulgaria
2.
1.
Austria
Portugal
Spain
Greece
Slovenia
Cyprus
Malta
Created by: Olaf WientzekPicture credits: fotolia.com
Heads of State or Government and
their political family (as of: 12 August 2020)
(The constitutionally stronger position
and, in the case of EU countries,
participation in the European
Sweden
Council is reflected on the map)
Finland
EPP: Christian Democrats, Centre-Right Parties
PES/S&D: Social Democrats & Socialists
ACRE/ECR: Eurosceptic Conservatives
Estonia
ALDE
A +Renew (mainly Liberals)
The Greens/EFA Latvia
Misc. populists
Denmark
Far-left populists (GUE/NGL) Lithuania
Far-right populists Ireland
Netherlands
Independents
*** outgoing (presumably) head of
Poland government.
Germany
Slovakia** **The party to which Slovakia’s head of
government belongs is part of the EPP
Group in the European Parliament but
Belgium*** Czech Republic is not part of the EPP party
Luxembourg *Fidesz’s membership of the EPP was
Hungary* suspended by both the EPP and
4. Romania₁ Fidesz on 20 March 2019
France
Italy² Croatia
Bulgaria
2.
1.
Austria
Portugal
Spain
Greece
Slovenia
Cyprus
²Conte is independent, but is Malta
Created by: Olaf Wientzek closely affiliated with the Five Star MovementPicture credits: fotolia.com
The EPP Family in the EU –
Which parties belong
to the EPP? Sweden
Moderaterna (MOD)
Kristdemokraterna (KD)
Finland
Kokoomus
(SK) KD
Estonia
Isamaa
Latvia
Jauna Vienotiba
Denmark
Lithuania
DKF (C)
Ireland TS-LKD
KD
Netherlands
Fine Gael CDA
Poland
PO
Germany PSL
Slovakia
CDU
CSU Czech Republic KDH
Belgium KDU-CSL
Most-Hid
CD&V, CDH, CSP² TOP 09
SMK
Luxembourg Spolu
CSV Hungary
Romania *Fidesz’s membership of the EPP was
4.
Fidesz* / suspended by both the EPP and
France* PNL
KDNP Fidesz on 20 March 2019
Les Républicains PMP
Italy
Croatia RMDSZ
Forza Italia
SVP HDZ Bulgaria
AP
2.
GERB
UDC
1.
Austria BCM
Portugal PATT DSB
Spain PdI
PSD ÖVP (the new people’s Greece
PP party) Slovenia
CDS-PP SDS ND
N.Si
SLS
Cyprus
Malta DISY
Created by: Olaf Wientzek PNNotes
* In Poland, the two EPP parties each led alliances that also included non-EPP parties
** In France, no polls for national parliamentary elections have been conducted since the parliamentary elections in June 2017. The results relate to the second round of the parliamentary
elections.
*** Polls conducted at regional level. In order to obtain an adequate result at national level, these results were each weighted according to the number of eligible voters (there is compulsory
voting). Despite compulsory voting and the relatively similar number of voters at elections in the different regions, small deviations may occur. In Belgium, the CD&V, CSP and CDH
partner parties only compete regionally. The results in the individual regions are weighted accordingly. The CSP only competes in European elections. At national elections, it is a part of
the CDH since the Belgian parliament is composed according to regions (Flanders, Wallonia, Brussels) and not according to language community. In Luxembourg, polls are conducted
regionally. The results are weighted according to the number of voters (there is compulsory voting) in order to calculate a party’s national strength. Despite compulsory voting and the
relatively similar number of voters at elections in the different regions, small deviations may occur.
Further notes:
In several countries (including Slovenia, Bulgaria and Latvia), undecided and non-voters are included as part of the total sum (100%) in the polls. The poll results are extrapolated
accordingly. Example: Party A has 13% in the polls. 30% of respondents will not vote and 20% of the respondents are undecided. Accordingly, support for Party A is reported to be 26%.
In Germany, the CDU and CSU are not listed as two separate parties owing to the fact they form a single parliamentary bloc and that their poll results are always added together.
In several countries, parties are part of the EPP bloc without belonging to the EPP. Some of them even belong to other party families, for example, CU and 50 Plus in the
Netherlands, STAN in Czech Republic and Olano in Slovakia. Their respective results are given in brackets.
Some of the parties in the ACRE family are right-wing populist or have strong right-wing populist elements. As the ACRE family is now (or is for the time being) a mainstream party family,
the parties belonging to it are listed as part of the ACRE family and not as “right-wing populist”. By contrast, the “right-wing populist” category contains parties belonging to the ENF in the
European Parliament, as well as other right-wing populist or right-wing extremist forces.
1 The list usually refers to the heads of government. Heads of state (where the government’s political affiliation is divergent) are only shown (separately) when they are represented in
the European Council (e.g. Klaus Johannis in Romania). In the case of France, the EPP is not shown as participating in government as the EPP’s official party there is not part of the
government.
2 The EPP does not have a member party in the United Kingdom. It has had two British MEPs in its European Parliament bloc since 2018 after two Tory MEPs defected from the ECR to
the EPP bloc. However, in Change UK, a party stood at the election which had, among others, EPP MEPs among its ranks. The CSP does not belong to the EPP but is part of the EVP
bloc.
Sources for polls: Ipsos (Belgium), Alpha Research (Bulgaria), Yougov (Denmark), Forsa (Germany), Norstat (Estonia), Tal. (Finland), IfoP (France), Pulse/RC (Greece), B&A (Ireland), EMG/Euromedia
(Italy), Promocija Pius (Croatia), Factum (Latvia), Spinter tyrimai (Lithuania), Sondesfro (Luxembourg), Sagalytics (Malta), de Peil (Netherlands) RA (Austria), Ibris (Poland), Aximage
(Portugal), IMAS (Romania), Demoskop (Sweden), AKO (Slovakia), Mediana (Slovenia), NC Report (Spain), Kantar (Czech Republic), Publicus (Hungary), Symmetron (Cyprus)
Contact person
Dr Olaf Wientzek
Email: olaf.wientzek@kas.de / olwien@hotmail.comYou can also read
