Sheffield Housing Market Bulletin - April - June 2018 - Sheffield City Council
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What’s been in the news? Expanding supply and supporting home ownership This section describes some of the main stories reported in the media Effective resolution of complaints about the national and local housing market, and other recent related Empowering residents and strengthening the regulator housing issues. Ensuring homes are safe and decent National News The Government also announced that it no longer intends to implement the forced sale of higher value council properties or the requirement on Revised National Planning Policy Framework councils to grant future tenants fixed-term tenancies proposed under The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF), which sets out the the Housing and Planning Act 2016. Government’s Planning policies for England, was revised in July and Consultation on the Green Paper is open to everyone and Sheffield City included some important changes which will potentially impact on the Council will be providing its response to the specific consultation delivery of new housing. These include: questions, which can be found here. A direction to approve sustainable development plans without delay if they are in line with an up-to-date development plan. English Housing Survey 2016/17 A new Housing Delivery Test that, from 2020, will require local A series of reports from the English Housing Survey 2016-17 covering a planning authorities to implement an action plan if housing delivery range of topics were published by the Government. Some of the key has fallen below 95% of the area’s housing requirement over the findings included: previous 3 years. The proportion of owner occupiers under 35 halved from 18% in Major housing developments should provide at least 10% of the 1996/7 to 9% in 2016/17. homes to be available for affordable home ownership unless this The private rented sector increased from 2.1 million households in would exceed the level of affordable housing required in the area, 1996-7 to 4.7 million households in 2016-17, and now accounts for with some exceptions applicable. 20% of households in England. A new Affordable Housing definition which includes Starter Homes The number of private renters has increased across all age groups and build-to-rent, discounted market sale housing and “other with the exception of those aged 75+. affordable routes to home ownership”. The social rented sector is the smallest tenure in England and The revised Framework can be downloaded from here. accounts for 17% of all households, with 10% renting from housing associations and 7% from local authorities. Social Housing Green Paper The proportion of social renters in work has increased over the last The Government issued its social housing green paper – A new deal for decade. social housing – in August, which set out proposals for reforming social housing based around five core themes: The full reports can be downloaded here. Tackling stigma and celebrating thriving communities
Local News were some of the reasons mentioned by local letting agents for this popularity. New Strategic Housing Market Assessment for Sheffield The article published by the Sheffield Star can be accessed here. Almost one in ten Sheffield households were asked to complete a household survey to help the Council understand current and future housing needs in the city. Market Housing The survey is an essential element of the Strategic Housing Market Table 1: Market housing information Assessment (SHMA), which the Council has a statutory duty to 3 12 undertake. A key aim of the assessment is to determine the affordable 3 month 12 month Current months months housing requirements for the city, including the different sizes and types change change ago ago of affordable housing needed. Sheffield property 1,579 1,604 1,756 -1.56% -10.08% The assessment includes both Sheffield and Rotherham local authority sales areas, and is being carried out by the Centre for Regional Economic and Social Research (CRESA) at Sheffield Hallam University. Only Sheffield average time 68 days 89 days 73 days -16 days +5 days households who received a letter from CRESR were able to take part in on the market the survey. The households were chosen at random using a method designed to cover all areas of the city and all types of housing. Sheffield average £163,164 £160,498 £151,984 +1.66% +7.36% The new Sheffield SHMA report will be available early in 2019 and more house price details about it can be found here. Average house price – £245,076 £240,513 £238,595 +1.90% +2.72% Sheffield postcodes in Yorkshire’s top 10 property spots England Six of Sheffield’s postcodes were included in Yorkshire’s top ten Average price property hotspots. They included neighbourhoods in the south east and by first time £142,227 £140,085 £132,936 +1.53% +6.99% buyers - south west of the city, as well as areas closer to the city centre. Sheffield The Sheffield postcodes were: S10 (Ranmoor, Fulwood and Crookes), Average price S7 (Nether Edge, Abbeydale), S8 (Beauchief, Norton, Woodseats), S20 by existing £180,689 £177,507 £167,791 +1.79% +7.69% (Mosborough), S11(Sharrow, Brincliffe and Whirlow), and S6 owners - (Hillsborough). S10 was listed as number one, with S7 and S8 in Sheffield second and third places respectively. Sheffield average £575 £575 £575 0.00% 0.00% The findings were published by the TheAdvisory website, which private rent provides information for house sellers, and were reported by the Median time Sheffield Star. Sheffield’s relative affordability, closeness to open on market 46 days 44 days 46 days +2 days 0 days countryside, high graduate retention rates and number of big employers PRS Source: Land Registry and Rightmove
Property Sales House Prices Property sales fell in Sheffield during April – June compared to both the Sheffield’s average house price increased by 7.36% to £163,164 in the previous quarter (-1.56%) and one year earlier (-10.08%). Falling sales twelve months, to June. This growth was well above the national are likely to reflect issues with supply rather than demand however, in average (2.72%), which was dampened by stagnating house prices in light of the growth in house prices that occurred in Sheffield during this London, where the average house price increased by just 0.39% during period. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors reported that June this period. saw the 16th consecutive fall in agreed house sales in the UK, with the The increase in Sheffield’s average house price was also higher than lack of available second hand stock continuing to be a key factor. the regional increase for Yorkshire and Humber (3.2%). Sheffield’s The average time on the market for unsold properties in June was increase was driven by the growth in prices for detached, semi- sixteen day less on average compared to three months earlier but this detached and terraced properties, which all increased by more than 7% varied significantly by property type. While detached properties were over the previous year. The increase in the average price for flats was typically spending just 46 days on the market, flats were spending more significantly lower at 4.2% (Chart 2). than two and half times this length of time (119 days) before being sold. Evidence of this being part of a longer term trend is shown in Chart 1, Chart 2: Change (%) in average price by property type June 2013 – June which shows that unsold detached, semi-detached and terraced 2018 properties had typically been on the market for a much shorter period in 9.0% June compared to five years earlier. In contrast, unsold flats had 7.9% typically spent 13% longer on the market compared to June 2013. 8.0% 7.5% 7.2% 7.0% Chart 1: Change (days) in median time on market June 2013 - June 2018 6.0% 5.0% 4.2% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Detached Semi Terraced Flat Source: Land Registry The high proportion of flats among city centre sales figures is likely to be one of the reasons why this housing markets area was one of the few areas that did not see an increase in its average house price over Source: Home.co.uk the year to June 2018. The only other housing market area which saw a
fall in its average house price was Chapeltown and Ecclesfield, where Social Housing and Housing Need prices fell on average by 3.4%. Table 2: Social housing/housing need information for Sheffield Private Rent Levels 3 12 12 3 month The median monthly private rent for properties advertised in Sheffield Current months months month change between April and June remained unchanged at £575. The typical two ago ago change bedroom property was being advertised for £650 but for properties with Choice based 733 878 741 -16.51% -1.09% four or more bedrooms the median rent was £1,000. Shared properties lettings (SCC) were typically being advertised for £275 per person. Choice based 943 1135 972 -16.92% -2.98% lettings (All*) Rents for student properties, which made up 22% of the properties Average advertised during this quarter, were typically around £390. The majority 20 29 -9 -3 waiting time – 23 months (59%) of these were in the City Centre West housing market area, months months months months non priority which is one of the main rental areas for students. Average minus no waiting time – 2 months 2 months 4 months two The City Centre West HMA was one of just three areas to see a fall in priority change months the median private rent over the past year, which could suggest falling demand from students. The only other housing market areas to see a Active bidders 5,231 4,947 5,434 +5.74% -3.74% fall in their median rents during this period were the Peak District and Right to Buys 80 98 91 -18.37% -12.09% Rural Upper Don Valley. Both of these areas are on the rural fringes of Mortgage the city and their median rents still remained well above the city repossession 29 32 52 -9.38% -44.23% average, at £725 and £625 respectively. court claims Mortgage repossession 13 17 21 -23.53% -38.10% court orders Actual mortgage 9 9 12 0.00% -25.00% repossessions *Includes Registered Providers. Source: Sheffield City Council and Gov.UK Choice Based Lettings The number of social rented properties let through choice based lettings fell by nearly 3% compared to the same quarter in 2017. The fall was mainly due to 10% fewer lettings to housing association properties. Over half (55%) of the lettings were made to flats, and 5% were for sheltered properties. Nearly half (46%) of lettings were for one bedroom properties but there were just seven lets to properties with four
bedrooms, reflecting the limited supply and small turnover of these Mortgage Repossessions larger properties.. The number of mortgage repossession court claims and orders both fell The number of active bidders grew in comparison to the previous significantly compared to the same quarter in the previous year. During quarter but the average waiting time for applicants without a priority fell this period nine homes were repossessed in Sheffield, representing a by nine months. Average waiting time for priority applicants remained fall of 25% compared to the same period in 2017. unchanged from the previous quarter at two months and was lower than The number of UK homeowner mortgages in arrears are at their lowest in the same period in 2017. since records began in 1994, which according to UK Finance was helped by low interest rates and lenders supporting borrowers through Right to Buy Sales periods of temporary financial difficulty wherever possible. The number of Right to Buy fell this quarter in comparison to the previous three month period and to the same period one year earlier. There were no obvious reasons for this fall and the Council is still Economics and Benefits expecting its forecast of 350 sales over 2018 to be achieved. Table 3: National interest and inflation rates Although the Government has committed to extend the Right to Buy to 3 12 12 assured tenants of housing associations, the announcement in the 3 month Current months months month recent Green Paper that it does not intend to implement the forced sale change ago ago change of higher value council properties to help fund this extension has left National Base Rate 0.50% 0.50% 0.25% 0.00 -0.25 questions about how the commitment will be funded. Average Standard 4.06 4.14 4.28 -0.08 -0.22 Homelessness Variable Rate The implementation of the Homeless Reduction Act in April 2018 made Average 5 year 2.03 2.02 1.99 0.01 0.04 significant changes to the way housing authorities must tackle fixed rate, 75% LTV homelessness, and also to the way homelessness figures are recorded. Average 5 year 4.38 4.44 4.74 -0.06 -0.36 It has therefore not been possible to include accurate figures for fixed rate, 95% LTV homelessness presentations and acceptances for this quarter, and 12 month inflation these figures have consequently been omitted from Table 2. 2.3% 2.3% 2.6% 0.0 -0.3 rate (CPIH) The Act modified or extended existing homelessness protection in a *n/a – not available at present. Source: Bank of England number of key areas, including new duties on housing authorities to prevent and relieve homelessness for all eligible people. More Interest Rates information about the changes introduced by the Homeless Reduction The Bank of England voted to hold the national base rate at 0.5%. It Act can be found here. had been expected to raise the rate in May but weaker economic New indicators will be used in future editions of the bulletin to identify conditions at the start of the year, partly due to harsh weather trends in homelessness. These will include an indicator for the number conditions, helped to deter this. The Governor of the Bank of England of homeless preventions being achieved in Sheffield to reflect the new confirmed, however, that there will be further interest rate rises although duties being placed on local authorities. these will be “limited and gradual”.
The Libor rate – the interest rate at which banks lend to each other – is Table 4: National mortgage lending information no longer published by the Bank of England will no longer be reported 3 12 12 in the bulletin. The Bank of England and Financial Conduct Authority 3 month Current months months month are currently looking at a replacement interest rate benchmark to change ago ago change sterling Libor. Average % 15.0% 16.6% 17.1% -1.62 -2.1 deposit - FTBs Mortgage Rates Average % There were only slight changes to the main types of mortgage interest deposit - home 26.4% 27.0% 27.0% -0.6 -0.6 rates during this quarter, reflecting the Bank of England’s decision not movers to change its base rate. Average income 3.65 3.60 3.59 +0.05 +0.06 multiple – FTBs The typical Sheffield homeowner on the average standard variable rate Average income mortgage would have monthly mortgage payments of £653, around £15 multiple – home 3.43 3.41 3.39 +0.02 +0.04 less than one year ago. Mortgage payments for the typical Sheffield movers homeowner with a 5 year fixed rate, 75% loan to value mortgage are Total new likely to be paying just £2 more than one year ago. mortgages for 199,900 173,500 201,700 15.22% -0.89% house purchase Inflation Rates New FTB 93,800 79,800 91,400 17.54% 2.63% The Consumer Price Index including owner occupiers housing costs mortgages (CPIH) 12-month rate remained unchanged from the previous quarter. New Buy-to-let 15,900 16,300 18,100 -2.45% -12.15% The rate has fallen steadily from 2.8% in autumn 2017 and housing and mortgages household services were contributing a slightly lower proportion to the Source: UK Finance overall rate in comparison to one year earlier. A falling inflation rate helps to ease pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates. Deposits The CPIH is the most comprehensive measure of inflation. It extends The average deposit paid by first time buyers fell to 15.0% of the the CPI to include a measure of the costs associated with owning, property value in May. This would mean first time buyers in Sheffield maintaining and living in one’s own home, known as owner occupiers’ paying a typical deposit of £21,334, and suggests that the Help to Buy housing costs (OOH), along with Council Tax. Both of these are Equity Loan scheme and the increased number of 95% loan to value significant expenses for many households and are not included in the mortgages that banks are now offering are likely to remain an important CPI. enabler for many local first-time buyers to access home ownership. The average deposit percentage paid by home movers also fell in May, although by a smaller amount than for first-time buyers. In Sheffield, a typical home mover would have been paying a deposit of £43,075 in June but due to house price inflation this was still £2,040 more than twelve months earlier.
Mortgages Figures published by the ONS2 in April also showed the growing First time buyers made up a larger proportion of the mortgage market in April-June compared to twelve months earlier and analysis by Savills1 unaffordability of home ownership for Sheffield’s first time buyers. In 2017 lower quartile house prices (£109, 950) in Sheffield were 5.57 showed that the number of first time buyers has been steadily times the lower quartile annual earnings (£19,731), which was the increasing since 2008. The report by Savills identified a series of highest ratio since 2010. government-led initiatives such as Help to Buy as a key factor in the increasing number of new build homes sold to first time buyers. Table 5: Jobseeker’s Allowance & Universal Credit (UC) due to Despite this growth, the affordability of home ownership for first time unemployment claimant information buyers has actually declined in the UK since 2009. The average mortgage amount borrowed by first time buyers was 3.1 times the 3 12 3 month 12 average first time buyer income in June 2009, compared to 3.65 in June JSA/ Universal months months change month Current 2018. For home movers this multiple increased from 2.9 to 3.43 over Credit claimants ago ago change the same period (Chart 3). A key factor contributing to this is likely to be Claimant rate – house prices growing faster than earnings during this period. 2.3 2.5 2.5 -0.20 -0.20 Sheffield Claimant rate – 2.1 2.1 1.9 0.00 0.20 England & Wales Chart 3: Average mortgage income multiples for FTBs and Home Movers Number of all claimants – 8,865 9,560 9,340 -7.27% -5.09% Sheffield Number of claimants aged 18- 1,840 2,000 2,050 -8.00% -10.24% 24- Sheffield Source: ONS experimental dataset. The claimant rate for Sheffield arising from unemployment fell in June compared to three months earlier, although the national rate remained unchanged over the same period. There were 695 fewer claimants in June compared to May, including 160 fewer claimants among younger people aged between 18 and 24. Source: UK Finance / Council of Mortgage Lenders 1 2 Market in Minutes: New homes and first time buyers, June 2018 (Savills) House price to workplace=based earnings ratio, April 2018 (ONS)
Table 6: Housing Benefit claimant information 3 12 3 12 Technical notes Current months months month month 1. The average house price is based on the last month within the given quarter e.g. ago ago change change for April-June the house price is taken from June. Total number of 2. The sales information for Sheffield is gathered from the Land Registry, 45,883 46,013 46,970 -0.28% -2.31% HB claimants 3. Average price paid by first time buyers and previous home owners is now Number of social included as it allows us to further understand the market and affordability. 37,422 37,479 38,052 -0.15% -1.66% HB claimants 4. Some of the figures from 3 and 12 months ago may look different to those published as ‘current’ in previous bulletins. This is because many of the data Number of private 8461 8530 8,915 -0.81% -5.09% sources used to compile the bulletin are continuously updated and revised HB claimants retrospectively. Source: Department of Works and Pensions 5. The private rented data is gathered from the Right Move database, which is based on data from the majority of the United Kingdom’s estate agents. The number of people claiming Housing Benefit remained steady, with 6. Actual repossessions are now included in the bulletin as they show the actual numbers of people that lose their homes. Not all court claims and court orders only a slight reduction of 0.28% in May compared to three months lead to repossession. earlier. The most significant fall has been among private claimants, 7. Housing Benefit claimants are included in the bulletin as they give an indication of whose number reduced by 5.09% over the year to May. the changes in the economy and will help us measure the impact of Welfare Although the fall among claimants in the private sector could be Reform. This is collected from the Housing Benefits service and has a 1 month delay. indicative of a reduced need for support with rent, a survey featured in a 8. Lettings information for Registered Providers’ properties is included now that it is recent report by Shelter and the National Housing Federation3 found available from Abritas, the Choice Based Lettings software application which is that almost a third of people receiving housing benefit said they hadn’t being used by the Council. been able to rent a home in the private sector due to a ‘No DSS’ policy in the last five years. 3 Stop DSS Discrimination: Ending prejudice against renters on housing benefit, August 2018 (Shelter & National Housing Federation)
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