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MONEY MATTERS
By Hywel George INVESTMENT GROUP
22 JULY 2020
As the market recovers to its previous highs it has struggled to In the US tech mania continues in particular in the FAANG
move above them, effectively shifting sideways for six weeks. stocks (plus Tesla) with Tesla’s market cap hitting $300bn...
Amazon, from a post-2000 dot-com bust share price of $6,
recently hit $3200 per share.
The exception has been China where retail investors have been
encouraged by articles in the state-owned media to look forward
to a bull market from here.
As local sentiment indicators have reached highs not
seen since the 2015 bubble (see the last newsletter here),
overseas investors have taken the opportunity to sell.
It can be easy to call “bubble”, but near-term euphoria measures
are now becoming evident.
And market participants are less confident of a broad-based
recovery in economic activity.
And breadth in NASDAQ is narrowing, often a near term
warning sign.
Be wary of the following types of charts, as no market event
is the same, nevertheless I would suggest some near term
caution is warranted.
Consumers meanwhile remain wary, as can be seen in these
UK charts.
DONALD TRUMP - GOOD PRESIDENT OR BAD?
It is rarely a good sign when a member of one’s own family
chooses to write an entire book on how awful you are. Yet just
last week, Donald Trump’s niece, Mary L. Trump published
such a book (with a million copies already sold, it may have
been the money). With a tag line “How my family created the
world’s most dangerous man” - I am guessing compliments
may be few and far between.
As an extrovert, he is akin to President Bush, or Reagan, the
latter in particular being a skilled social actor (literally in
Reagan’s case as an ex Hollywood star). For Trump, he exhibits
the classic signs of being socially dominant, outgoing, restless
and driven by reward, fame and wealth. He thrives on this; it is
his lifeblood. In 1987 Trump was asked by a reporter whether
he would want to be appointed President as opposed to run
for the job. His reply. “No. It’s the hunt that I believe I love”. He
never wanted to be President but he adored the campaign.
Anger and a predilection for lying often underlie a disagreeable
nature. In this respect Trump best resembles Nixon, whose same
trait led ultimately of course to Watergate and his resignation,
and in the interim to an aggressive foreign policy along with his
Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. Trump’s anger is clearly on
show at times; infamously at one of his early campaign rallies,
seeing dissenters at the back of the convention hall he yelled
“get ‘em outta here; I’d like to punch him in the face”. Indeed,
he did - whilst in second grade punching his music teacher
in the face leaving him with a black eye.
As to lying I guess Trump is now famous for that; at least if you
Whilst being a good President means being more than just a watch CNN. The political commentator Politifact analyses the
good person (we will come to that), when you are leader of the claims he made during the entire 2016 campaign. Of his claims:
free world, one’s personal attributes are I would argue relevant. 2% were true
A strong, decisive character, able to attend to multiple points 7% mostly true
of view, being able to frame an issue with all its attendant 15% half true
complexity, to be able to show moral leadership, courage, the
highest ethics, to conduct oneself with decorum, to bind people 15% were mostly false
together, to show a higher path to greatness. It is worthwhile 42% false
at this point (as I am sure the reader will be getting the point 18% “pants on fire”
that perhaps Trump is a little light in some of these traits), that
The 75% collective lies compared with 66% for Ted Cruz, 31%
while President Obama was magnificent in many of these, as a
for Bernie Saunders and 29% for “Crooked” Hilary Clinton.
President he was woefully ineffective, his introverted personality
tragically impending him from building the bridges necessary As a narcissist (who believes the world revolves around them)
across the political spectrum (even with his own party) to get Trump again openly displays the classic traits that are:
anything done (Obamacare being one of the few exceptions). - A grandiose sense of self-importance.
- Lives in a fantasy world that supports that delusion of grandeur.
Let us turn then to Trump’s character. An article in the Atlantic
- Needs constant praise and admiration.
journal (one of the best reads by the way for well-informed
- A deep sense of entitlement.
political commentary) described Trump as inhabiting “an
- Ruthlessly exploits others without guilt or shame.
existence unmolested by the rumblings of a soul”. A perfect
- Frequently demeans, intimidates, bullies and belittles others.
summary in nine words I thought. It is fortunate that the
physiologists Steven Rubenzen and Thomas Faschingbauer This comes shining through in his countless tweets. It was
have written extensively on the personality types of all US tough to pick out just a few, but here are some good examples.
presidents back to Kennedy; we can thereby compare Trump
against a useful template.
“Ron Tillerson (his ex-Secretary of State) didn’t have the
I think Trump can be fairly characterized by four key personality mental capacity needed. He was dumb as a rock. I couldn’t
get rid of him fast enough. He was lazy as hell.”
traits. He is:
1. Off the chart extrovert (feeding constantly off others, craving “Sorry losers but my IQ is one of the highest - and you all
know it. Please don’t feel so stupid or insecure, it’s not your
attention and admiration at all times). fault.”
2. Off the chart disagreeable (agreeable means being kind,
“Arianna Huffington is unattractive inside and out. I fully
caring, polite, kind, in other words most people; the opposite understand why her former husband left her for a man - he
means being callous, rude, arrogant and angry). made a good decision”
3. Resistant to openness (rarely questioning his deepest
convictions), and
I mean - truly appalling!
4. A narcissist (a person who has an excessive interest in or
admiration for themselves).
So, I think we have established that Donald Trump is probably least pause their progress - and have likely been helpful as a
not someone one would want to invite around for dinner. Let whole in the Middle East. He has strangely cosied up to Putin
alone be leader of the free world. (maybe they do have something on him after all) and he has
alienated the entirety of Asia and Europe.
What was he like however as a President? (Please try to ignore
the person, focus on the actions only) Good President? Or Bad?
As a politician who has delivered against his promises Trump
President Trump’s Campaign Manifesto is second to none. If he gets in for a second term (unlikely it
Donald Trump was always very clear during his campaign would seem) expect more of the same. In this sense, he is a
exactly what he would do if he made office. It was a clear list huge success - driven, decisive, able to force through change
on his campaign website. This is it. and deliver on his promise to the people. This is indeed rare
in a political leader.
TRUMP’S 2016 ELECTION CAMPAIGN MANIFESTO
As a person with the moral character needed in a position of
1. Build a Wall … and make Mexicans pay for it
2. Temporarily ban Muslims from entering the United States- suspend high office, Trump is laughably inadequate. Indeed, he possesses
immigration from terror-prone regions many of the character traits you would actively look to avoid
3. Bring jobs back to America
4. Impose tariffs on goods made in China and Mexico in a person holding such an important position. The resulting
5. Re-negotiate and withdraw from the North American Free Trade damage to US unity and global unity has been profound and
Agreement and Trans Pacific Partnership
6. Full repeal of Obamacare
the world is a morally lessened place due to one man. A truly
7. Re-negotiate the Iran Deal extraordinary “achievement”.
8. Cut taxes
9. Destroy ISIS Trump has been good for the economy of America, cutting
10. For every new federal regulation, two existing regulations must be
eliminated taxes and regulation, and freeing the animal spirits; he has stood
11. Label China a currency manipulator up to China when the US sorely needed to. He has kept North
12. Cancel payments to Climate Change Programs
13. Maximise infrastructure investments
Korea contained, where Obama failed. He has been an enemy
14. Appoint new Federal Judge to the Supreme Court to Europe and the European project. He has stepped away from
15. Remove criminal illegal immigrants from America
Asia, where US influence is fundamental as a buffer to Chinese
16. Clean up politics in Washington
geopolitical dominance - and China have been quick to enter
the vacuum in Hong Kong, India and the South China Sea.
The first one was probably one of the least achieved (93 miles
of the wall have been completed - the border is 2000 miles However, these achievements and disasters pale against the
long). As to the others, for better or for worse (and many are damage inflicted by President Trump on the coherent Global
indeed disagreeable). World Order painstakingly constructed following World War
II. Delicately interwoven and integrated global institutions
- 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15 are all done. (the World Bank, United Nations, NATO and WHO) have been
- 6, repeal of Obamacare was defeated by one vote summarily trampled on and denigrated by Trump (like a bully
(Senator John McCain) in the Senate. belittling his compatriots). Trump has dominated the global
- 9, well, nearly. stage like a scary colossus - imposing his narcissist tendencies
- 13, rumored. on all and sundry. World order needs to be restored. I doubt Joe
- 16, impossible (and always promised!). Biden is the man to do it, but even four years of much needed
calm and maturity will heal many of the wounds.
So, the lesson is be careful what you wish for, because Trump,
unlike almost every other political leader or President actually Sorry Donald, in the end, you just didn’t cut it.
did what he said he would do (check his new manifesto for
re-election closely this time).
Trump’s Foreign Policy
Trump’s world view is intensely US focused, largely uninformed,
driven by his personality traits as described and highly divisive.
He can be impulsive and high risk; certain always that his
decision has to be the right one. His bullying tactics have
however worked well I would say to date with China (and to
an extent North Korea) where a strongman was needed to at
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