Mizuho Dealer's View EMEA emerging currencies - 15 Feb, 2021
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Mizuho Dealer's View
EMEA emerging currencies
15 Feb, 2021
Mizuho Bank. Ltd.
European Treasury Department, London
Mizuho Bank Europe NV (Amsterdam)
AO Mizuho Bank (Moscow)
TEL: +44 (0) 20 7786 2500
Email: fx@mhcb.co.ukContents and Contributors
15 Feb, 2021 edition of Mizuho Dealer's View EMEA emerging currencies
Page
1. Polish Zloty 3 This week's movement against USD
Eri Kimbara, Amsterdam ( 5 Feb - 12 Feb )
2. Czech Koruna 4
Claire Marne, Amsterdam ZAR
3. Hungarian Forint 5
RUB
Matthias Paschetag, Dusseldorf
4. Romanian Leu 6 SEK
Emiko Sato Noordman, Dusseldorf
5. Norwegian Krone 7 NOK
Jun Iijima, Paris
CZK
6. Swedish Krona 8
Jun Iijima, Paris THB
7. Russian Ruble 9
Ekaterina Sheblova , Moscow MXN
8. South African Rand 10
RON
Joseph McElhill, London
9. Chinese Yuan, Renminbi (CNH) 11 CNH
Colin Asher, London
10. Thailand Baht 12 PLN
Saba Zafar, London
TRY
11. Brazilian Real 13
Fumihiko Kanda, London HUF
12. Mexican Peso 14
Colin Asher, London INR
13. Indian Rupee 15
BRL
Joseph McElhill, London
14. Turkish Lira 16 -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50%
Colin Asher, London
Source: Bloomberg
Page 2Polish Zloty
GDP YoY : -1.5% Unemployment rate : 3.3% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 2.8% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : 2.5% Eri Kimbara, Amsterdam
15 Feb, 2021
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
Last week Polish Zloty has moved within the range and settled around 3.78
USD/PLN (LHS) EUR/PLN (RHS)
4.56
4.50 level on Friday. PLN appreciated after the central bank governor
Adam Glapinski talked on the 3rd of Feb that the bank had no exchange 3.76 4.54
rate target for PLN and the government kept the interest rate at 0.1%. The 4.52
possibility to raise the interest rate back will be expected to be discussed 3.74
as the pandemic settles. Bond-buying program has been slowing down in 4.5
3.72
recent months. GDP YoY was released at -2.8% on 12th. 4.48
3.7
4.46
3.68 4.44
3.66 4.42
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What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 15/2 ) forecast mean (12/02 close) (%)
PLN 10 year bond yeild (LHS) WIG20 Index (RHS)
1.35 2040
Against US Dollars : 3.670 - 3.750
2020
Against Euro : 4.470 - 4.530 1.3
This week we have CPI and Current Account Balance to be released on 2000
15th and Polish government is going to present "New deal" plan for 1.25 1980
economic recovery in Poland within next few weeks. CPI results for 1960
1.2
January may give a positive surprise to the market and in which case, 1940
PLN should move strong.
1.15 1920
1900
1.1
1880
1.05 1860
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Page 3Czech Koruna
GDP YoY : -5.3% Unemployment rate : 2.8% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 2.6% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : 2.3% Claire Marne, Amsterdam
15 Feb, 2021
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
The Czech inflation surprised the market last Friday, with an unexpected USD/CZK (LHS) EUR/CZK (RHS)
21.7 26.3
increase to 2.2% while the central bank was expecting CPI to slowdown to
26.2
1.70%. The increase is mainly due to high food prices, showing in January 21.6
the highest MoM acceleration in 21 years. The Parliament rejected a 21.5
26.1
government proposal to prolong state of emergency, allowing shops to 26
reopen, despite Health Minister warning that easing lockdown measures will 21.4 25.9
put additional pressure on hospitals, as Czech Republic has one of the 21.3 25.8
highest new infections and deaths per capita in Europe. 25.7
21.2
25.6
21.1
25.5
21 25.4
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What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 15/2 ) forecast mean (12/02 close) (%)
CZK 10 year bond yeild (LHS) PX Index (RHS)
1.5 1080
Against US Dollars : 21.20 21.60 21.500 21.239
1070
Against Euro : 25.50 26.00 26.225 25.735 1.45
1060
December Current Account Balance to be released on Monday is expected 1.4 1050
to show a strong decrease, unless unexpected surprise like January CPI. 1040
1.35
CZK could may be continue its gradual appreciation against EUR. 1030
1.3 1020
1.25 1010
1000
1.2
990
1.15 980
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Page 4Hungarian Forint
GDP YoY : -4.6% Unemployment rate : 4.5% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 2.8% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : -0.2% Matthias Paschetag, Dusseldorf
15 Feb, 2021
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
During the last week, HUF strengthened slightly ag USD (+0.3%) and USD/HUF (LHS) EUR/HUF (RHS)
298 361
weakend ag EUR (-0.5%).
360
Friday, rising CPI numbers (0.9% mom, 2.7% yoy ) were released for 297
January. 296
359
HUF ended the week at 296 ag USD and 359 ag EUR. 358
295 357
294 356
355
293
354
292
353
291 352
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What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 15/2 ) forecast mean (12/02 close) (%) HUF 10 year bond yeild (LHS) BUX Index (RHS)
2.5 45000
Against US Dollars : 291.00 - 301.00 298.00 295.71
Against Euro : 355.00 - 363.00 361.00 358.47 2.45
44500
Most likely, HUF will still react to more general market factors and corona 2.4
news trading with higher volatility levels. 2.35
44000
2.3 43500
Major economic news
2.25
Tue: erlease of prelim. Q4 GDP numbers 43000
2.2
42500
2.15
2.1 42000
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Page 5Romanian Leu
GDP YoY : -5.7% Unemployment rate : 5.3% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 2.2% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : -4.7% Emiko Sato Noordman, Dusseldorf
15 Feb, 2021
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
Kindly note that there is no market commentary on these currency pairs this USD/RON (LHS) EUR/RON (RHS)
4.1 4.88
week as the author is away from the office.
4.08 4.878
4.876
4.06
4.874
4.04
4.872
4.02
4.87
4
4.868
3.98 4.866
3.96 4.864
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What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 15/2 ) forecast mean (12/02 close) (%)
RON 10 year bond yeild (LHS) BET Index (RHS)
2.95 10800
Against US Dollars : - 4.02 4.02
10700
Against Euro : - 4.88 4.88 2.9
2.85 10600
10500
2.8
10400
2.75
10300
2.7
10200
2.65 10100
2.6 10000
2.55 9900
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Page 6Norwegian Krone
GDP YoY : -0.2% Unemployment rate : 5.2% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 1.3% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : 2.2% Jun Iijima, Paris
15 Feb, 2021
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
NOK was trading around 8.5308 against USD, 10.2841 against EUR at the USD/NOK (LHS) EUR/NOK (RHS)
8.7 10.5
start of last week. Oil price slightly stumbled during the week but on Friday,
it was around USD 61.5 per barrel (Brent). Through the week, NOK ticked 8.65 10.45
up and down in the small ranges. 8.6 10.4
8.55 10.35
8.5 10.3
8.45 10.25
8.4 10.2
8.35 10.15
8.3 10.1
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.
What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 15/2 ) forecast mean (12/02 close) (%)
NOK 10 year bond yeild (LHS) OSEBX Index (RHS)
1.25 1010
Against US Dollars : 8.86 - 8.60
Against Euro : 10.12 - 10.42 1.2 1000
This week in Norway, the following economic data releases are scheduled: 1.15 990
No major economic releases are scheduled this week.
1.1 980
GDP data on 12 Feb was over the market survey level but still in the range 1.05 970
of expectation.
1 960
Next Central Bank's Policy Meeting Date: 18 Mar 2021 0.95 950
0.9 940
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Page 7Swedish Krona
GDP YoY : -2.5% Unemployment rate : 7.9% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 0.3% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : 5.2% Jun Iijima, Paris
15 Feb, 2021
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
SEK started around 8.3857 and 10.0992 against USD and EUR at the USD/SEK (LHS) EUR/SEK (RHS)
8.5 10.18
beginning of last week. On 10 Feb, Riksbank announced that it would leave
10.16
the key rate unchanged at 0.0% and continue to buy assets within envelope 8.45
10.14
of SEK700bn. The market expected the increase in purchase but everything 8.4 10.12
was in the range of expectation. SEK was around 8.33 and 10.08 handles
10.1
against USD and EUR, respectively. 8.35
10.08
8.3
10.06
8.25 10.04
10.02
8.2
10
8.15 9.98
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What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 15/2 ) forecast mean (12/02 close) (%) SEK 10 year bond yeild (LHS) OMX Index (RHS)
0.25 2040
Against US Dollars : 8.20 - 8.44
Against Euro : 9.98 - 10.16 2020
0.2
This week in Sweden, on 18 Feb, the CPI MoM data for Jan is to be 2000
released. The market survey shows -0.4% (previously 0.7%).
0.15
No major NCB actions are scheduled this week. 1980
0.1 1960
Next Central Bank's Policy Announcement: 27 Apr 2021
1940
0.05
1920
0 1900
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Page 8Russian Ruble
GDP YoY : -3.4% Unemployment rate : 6.1% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 4.4% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : 2.7% Ekaterina Sheblova , Moscow
15 Feb, 2021
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
During the previous week Russian Ruble was traded in rather narrow range 76.5
USD/RUB (LHS) EUR/RUB (RHS)
92.5
of 73.52 and 74.57 against US Dollar. Ruble showed a steady strengthening 76 92
for almost the entire week until Friday. Elevated oil prices, global risk-on 91.5
75.5
sentiments and no real sanctions announced supported national currency. 91
75
On Friday CBR kept key rate on the same level at 4.25% which was 90.5
expected by market, but later under the pressure of CBR Governor’s 74.5 90
comments about the completion of the period of monetary policy easing and 74 89.5
along with falling oil prices the Ruble dipped below 74.00. 73.5
89
88.5
73
88
72.5 87.5
72 87
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What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 15/2 ) forecast mean (12/02 close) (%) RUB 10 year bond yeild (LHS) RTSI$ Index (RHS)
6.6 1500
Against US Dollars : 74.00 - 76.00 74.00 73.71
1480
Against Euro : 89.00 - 91.00 89.50 89.25 6.5
1460
This week we expect the Ruble to depreciate to the 74.50-75.00 level after 6.4 1440
the latest CBR comments and published CPI rate. Global markets’ 1420
6.3
sentiments, oil prices and sanctions rhetoric should boost or slow down the 1400
depreciation of Russian currency. The start of tax payment season, on the 6.2 1380
other hand will support RUB. 1360
6.1
1340
6
1320
5.9 1300
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Page 9South African Rand
GDP YoY : -6% Unemployment rate : 30.8% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 3.2% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : 0.7% Joseph McElhill, London
15 Feb, 2021
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
USDZAR broke 14.60 for the second time in 3 months last week, as USD 15.4
USD/ZAR (LHS) EUR/ZAR (RHS)
18.6
short covering and quantitive easing hopes supported emerging currency
18.4
markets. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said in his State of the 15.2
Nation address that overcoming the coronavirus is the biggest challenge the 15
18.2
country faces, though he had nothing much new to say on accelerating a 18
much-criticized vaccine programme. 14.8
17.8
14.6
17.6
14.4
17.4
14.2 17.2
14 17
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What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 15/2 ) forecast mean (12/02 close) (%)
ZAR 10 year bond yeild (LHS) TOP40 Index (RHS)
8.9 62000
Against US Dollars : 14.30 - 15.00 15.25 14.55
Against Euro : 17.00 - 17.80 18.50 17.63 8.8 61000
The key speech from Ramaphosa came against the backdrop of
8.7 60000
a stalled vaccine rollout: a trial of AstraZeneca Plc’s offering showed limited
efficacy against mild disease caused by the B.1.351 variant that’s now 8.6 59000
dominant in the country. South Africa is the country hardest hit by the virus
8.5 58000
in Africa with almost 1.5 million confirmed infections. Investors will remain
weary of the budget due to be announced on the 24th of February, and 8.4 57000
inflation retail sales figures due to be released this week.
8.3 56000
8.2 55000
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Page 10Chinese Yuan, Renminbi (CNH)
GDP YoY : 6.5% Unemployment rate : 4.2% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 0.1% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : 1.5% Colin Asher, London
15 Feb, 2021
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
The RMB regained its upside momentum ahead of the Chinese New 6.52
USD/CNH (LHS) EUR/CNH (RHS)
7.95
Year.As the USD softened, CNH retested 6.42 level while CNY closed at
6.5
6.4582 before the week-long holiday. The PBoC monetary policy report and 7.9
China data point to no change in the prudent monetary policy stance. 6.48
Importantly, the PBoC said it would anchor the stability of RMB valuation to 6.46
7.85
foster economic growth, pointing to tolerance of RMB appreciation for the
6.44 7.8
time being.
6.42
7.75
6.4
7.7
6.38
6.36 7.65
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What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
(%)
Expected Ranges ( The week of 15/2 ) forecast mean (12/02 close) CNH 10 year bond yeild (LHS) SHSZ300 Index (RHS)
3.26 5900
Against US Dollars : 6.38 - 6.46 6.45 6.42
3.24 5800
Against Euro : 7.72 - 7.83 7.85 7.78
3.22
With no CNY anchor for the week as Chinese markets remain closed for the 3.2
5700
Lunar New Year break, the focus will be on external affiars including the 3.18 5600
relationship with the US. Whilst we see the bias for USD/CNH to trade 3.16 5500
lower, investors will be cautious without confirmation from CNY fixings. 3.14 5400
3.12
5300
3.1
3.08 5200
3.06 5100
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Page 11Thai Baht
GDP YoY : -6.4% Unemployment rate : 1.9% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : -0.4% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : 5.7% Saba Zafar, London
15 Feb, 2021
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
Signs of progress towards Biden administration's 1.9 trillion stimulus 30.15 USD/THB (LHS) EUR/THB (RHS) 36.6
package boosted risk assets and USD declined.This coupled with firmer 30.1 36.5
gold prices led to a stronger Thai Baht as the outlook for the nation's export 36.4
30.05
of the commodity bolstered. Thai Baht advanced to a one week high.
36.3
30
36.2
29.95
36.1
29.9
36
29.85
35.9
29.8 35.8
29.75 35.7
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What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
(%)
Expected Ranges ( The week of 15/2 ) forecast mean (12/02 close) GVTL10YR Index (LHS) SET Index (RHS)
1.4 1540
Against US Dollars : 29.85 - 30.10 1530
1.38
Against Euro : 36.00 - 36.40 1520
Thai Baht consolidates near to the strongest level around 29.90. Thailand 1.36 1510
onshore market is closed on Friday due to public holiday. Wecan expect 1.34 1500
Thai Baht to trade between range 29.85 and 30.10 as return of equity flow 1.32
1490
into Thailand keeps the baht steady. 1480
1.3 1470
1.28 1460
1450
1.26
1440
1.24 1430
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Page 12Brazilian Real
GDP YoY : -3.9% Unemployment rate : 14.2% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 4.3% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : -1.3% Fumihiko Kanda, London
15 Feb, 2021
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
Previous week BRL was range-bound within the recent range. USD/BRL (LHS) EUR/BRL (RHS)
5.55 6.7
On Monday a headline saying the Brazilian government was preparing a fresh
round of emergency 6 billion BRL (= 1.1 billion USD) spending made BRL edge 5.5 6.65
higher to 5.30 level vs USD. On Tuesday IPCA inflation slightly missed market 5.45 6.6
consensus then the expectation on earlier rate-hike by BCB (central bank) got 6.55
5.4
shrunk and BRL fell. On Wednesday data showed retail sales in December 6.5
unexpectedly decreased 6.1% MoM and BRL fluctuated. Brazil economy 5.35
6.45
contracted 4.05% in 2020 revealed in economic activity report by BCB on Friday 5.3
6.4
but BRL showed limited reaction just before long weekend.
5.25 6.35
5.2 6.3
5.15 6.25
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What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 15/2 ) forecast mean (12/02 close) (%)
BRL 10 year bond yield (LHS) IBOV Index
1190 122000
Against US Dollars : 5.20 - 5.70 5.25 5.38
121000
Against Euro : 6.20 - 6.80 6.40 6.52 1180
120000
BRL would be subdued with global concern on COVID-19. 1170 119000
Market driver will be mainly virus-related (USD demand). Brazil leads COVID-19 118000
case in Latin America area and economic slowdown in Brazil is serious. In addition 1160 117000
political/fiscal uncertainty cast further uncertainty on BRL. Investors are active on 1150 116000
Brazilian stocks and the inflow became a certain support of BRL. Investors are 115000
1140
keen to see how the government manage to balance between stimulus and deficit. 114000
Domestically BRL market closed on Monday and Tuesday. 1130
113000
112000
1120 111000
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Page 13Mexican Peso
GDP YoY : -4.5% Unemployment rate : 4.3% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 3.5% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : 1.5% Colin Asher, London
15 Feb, 2021
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
Banxico was dovish, delivering a 25bp rate cut by unanimous decision. In USD/MXN (LHS) EUR/MXN (RHS)
20.8 25.5
addition, the board left the door open for further easing, but conditional on
20.6
positive developments in inflation. Despite the dovish central bank decision
25
and the poor Covid data, MXN pushed lower through the 50-day moving 20.4
average, trading as low as 19.9058 on Thursday and pushing back towards 20.2
24.5
that level in the final trading hours on Friday, as Brent crude pushed above 20
$62. MXN is on course to reverse January declines in February. 19.8
24
19.6
19.4 23.5
19.2
19 23
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What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 15/2 ) forecast mean (12/02 close) (%) MXN 10 year bond yeild (LHS) MEXBOL Index (RHS)
8.2 47000
Against US Dollars : 19.70 20.20 19.70 19.95
8
Against Euro : 24.00 - 24.40 23.60 24.18 7.8
46000
Looking forward, with US assets remaining buoyant the bais for USD/MXN 7.6
45000
remains lower in the short term, with rising oil prices providing a further lift. 7.4
MXN looks a little over-valued vs LatAm peers and should underperform 7.2 44000
through the course of the year. 7
43000
6.8
6.6
42000
6.4
6.2 41000
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Page 14Indian Rupee
GDP YoY : -7.5% Unemployment rate : 1.3% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 6.4% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : Joseph McElhill, London
15 Feb, 2021
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
It was a strong week for INR last week, as emerging market stocks and USD/INR (LHS) EUR/INR (RHS)
73.4 89
currencies were supported by a weaker USD and risk-on sentiment, deriving
from soft consumer price data from the US. The RBI also announced that it 73.2
88.5
will seek to buy more than $41 billion worth of sovereign bonds in the next
fiscal year to support the government’s borrowing plans. 73
88
72.8
87.5
72.6
87
72.4
72.2 86.5
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What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 15/2 ) forecast mean (12/02 close) (%)
INR 10 year bond yeild (LHS) NIFTY Index (RHS)
6.15 15500
Against US Dollars : 72.00 - 73.00 73.00 72.76
6.1
Against Euro : 87.20 - 89.00 88.50 88.09 15000
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s view that capital expenditure will jump by 6.05
14500
26% in the next fiscal year should continue to support INR, which closed last 6
week at 72.735, a level way below its 200 DMA of 73.2724. Last week 5.95 14000
Tuesday, New Delhi reported for the first time in 9 months zero coronavirus
5.9
related deaths, positive news for the world’s second-worst virus hit country, 13500
5.85
trailing only the U.S. in infections and deaths.
13000
5.8
5.75 12500
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Page 15Turkish Lira
GDP YoY : 6.7% Unemployment rate : 13.1% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 13.5% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : -4.2% Colin Asher, London
15 Feb, 2021
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
TRY's gains since early November have been impressive - up nearly 20% USD/TRY (LHS) EUR/TRY (RHS)
7.6 9.1
reversing a fair proportion of 2020's rout. The change of central bank
7.5 9
governor was the key catalyst and he was again this week underscoring the
necessity of squeezing inflation out of the system. USD/TRY continued to 7.4 8.9
push lower this week, although the gains were marginal, TRY ended the 7.3 8.8
week up ~0.5% against the US dollar 7.2 8.7
7.1 8.6
7 8.5
6.9 8.4
6.8 8.3
6.7 8.2
18/01/2021 25/01/2021 01/02/2021 08/02/2021 15/02/2021
What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 15/2 ) forecast mean (12/02 close) (%)
TRY 10 year bond yeild (LHS) XU100 Index (RHS)
13.2 1580
Against US Dollars : 6.80 - 7.25 7.44 7.03
13.1 1560
Against Euro : 8.40 - 8.70 8.98 8.53
13 1540
There still seems to be demand for TRY assets from asset managers
despite the sharp rally in the currency. TRY remains a relative high yielder in 12.9 1520
the EM space amid a global hunt for yield. We look for USD/TRY to drift 12.8 1500
lower this coming week against a soft USD backdrop 12.7 1480
12.6 1460
12.5 1440
12.4 1420
12.3 1400
18/01/2021 25/01/2021 01/02/2021 08/02/2021 15/02/2021
Page 16Market Implied Policy Rate
Source from Bloomberg
Implied policy rates using OIS market (%) Implied rate change in 3 months time (%)
-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4
Policy Rate 3 months 6 months 1 year 2 years 3 years
Americas Russia
United States 0.13 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.17 0.32 Taiwan
Canada 0.25 0.28 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 Turkey
Mexico 6.50 5.68 5.35 5.38 5.69 6.35
Romania
Chile 0.50 -0.01 0.02 0.11 0.86 1.52
Brazil 3.75 3.26 3.37 4.17 7.19 9.17 Japan
EMEA Canada
Euro Zone -0.50 -0.54 -0.57 -0.56 -0.56 -0.49 Uniterd Kingdom
Uniterd Kingdom 0.10 0.10 0.12 0.12 0.25 0.31 Hungary
Switzerland -0.75 -0.80 -0.79 -0.80 -0.75 -0.66
United States
Norway 0.25 -0.18 -0.23 -0.29 -0.21 -0.07
Sweden 0 -0.19 -0.20 -0.20 -0.21 -0.08 Euro Zone
Czech Republic 1.00 0.45 0.43 0.46 0.59 0.67 Switzerland
Poland 1.00 0.45 0.33 0.30 0.46 0.62 Korea
Romania 2.00 2.09 2.35 2.38 1.96 1.87
Sweden
Turkey 9.75 9.94 9.51 14.65 10.70 12.11
Russia 6.00 6.27 6.29 5.94 6.25 6.32 Thailand
Hungary 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.97 1.16 1.48 Norway
Asia / Pacific Brazil
China 2.20 1.63 2.04 1.89 2.24 2.63 Chile
India 4.40 3.58 3.84 3.63 3.99 4.37
Czech Republic
Korea 0.75 0.58 0.56 0.56 0.70 0.75
Japan -0.07 -0.02 -0.02 0.00 -0.03 -0.06 Poland
Thailand 0.75 0.34 0.49 0.63 0.73 0.92 China
Taiwan 1.13 1.34 0.82 0.40 1.78 0.71
Page 17(%)
(%)
-
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
-2.0
-
-10.0
6.0
-8.0
-2.0
2.0
4.0
8.0
-6.0
-4.0
Turkey
Turkey
India
China
Russia
US
Brazil
Norway
Mexico
Poland
South Africa Sweden
Poland Russia
Hungary Brazil
Czech
CPI YoY
Mexico
GDP YoY
Romania Hungary
Norway Czech
US Romania
Sweden South Africa
China Thailand
Thailand India
Economic Indicators (Quarterly data)
(%)
(%)
-
-
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
5.0
-6.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
-4.0
-2.0
Thailand South Africa
Sweden Brazil
Russia Turkey
Poland Sweden
Czech US
Norway
Russia
Mexico
Romania
China
Norway
India
Hungary
Current Account
South Africa
Mexico
Unemployment Rate
Hungary
China
Brazil
Poland
US
Czech
Turkey
Thailand
Romania
Source from Bloomberg
Page 18Economic Indicators (Quarterly data)
Source from Bloomberg
GDP YoY % (EMEA) GDP YoY % (Other EMs)
15 Czech Poland Hungary 20 Russia South Africa China Brazil
Romania Norway Sweden
15 Mexico India Turkey Thailand
10
10
5
5
0
Mar 11 Mar 13 Mar 15 Mar 17 Mar 19
0 -5
Mar 11 Mar 13 Mar 15 Mar 17 Mar 19 -10
-5 -15
-20
-10
-25
-15 -30
CPI YoY % (EMEA) 25 CPI YoY % (Other EMs)
10
Czech Poland Hungary Russia South Africa China
Romania Norway Sweden 20 Brazil Mexico India
8
Turkey Thailand
6 15
4 10
2
5
0
Mar 11 Mar 13 Mar 15 Mar 17 Mar 19 0
Mar 11 Mar 13 Mar 15 Mar 17 Mar 19
-2
-5
-4
Page 19Economic Indicators (Quarterly data)
Source from Bloomberg
Umemployment rate % (EMEA) Umemployment rate % (Other EMs)
Czech Poland Hungary 35 Russia South Africa China Brazil
12
Romania Norway Sweden
Mexico India Turkey Thailand
30
10
25
8
20
6
15
4
10
2
5
0 0
Mar 11 Mar 13 Mar 15 Mar 17 Mar 19 Mar 11 Mar 13 Mar 15 Mar 17 Mar 19
Current Account % (EMEA) Current Account % (Other EMs)
15
15 Russia South Africa China Brazil
Czech Poland Hungary
Romania Norway Sweden Mexico India Turkey Thailand
10
10
5
5
0
0
Mar 11 Mar 13 Mar 15 Mar 17 Mar 19
Mar 11 Mar 13 Mar 15 Mar 17 Mar 19
-5 -5
-10 -10
Page 20Commodities (Daily data)
Source from Bloomberg
Commodity price change % Oil Price vs Oil Currencies %
100%
50%
Brent Oil Gold Copper Brent Oil RUB/USD NOK/USD
80% 40%
60% 30%
40% 20%
20% 10%
0%
0%
Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb 20
Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb 20 -10%
-20%
-20%
-40%
-30%
-60%
-40%
Crude Oil Production % of GDP Economic Activities
100% US(LHS) China(LHS) UK(LHS) 1800%
Saudi Arabia(RHS) Russia(RHS) Norway(RHS)
3,000 14
Baltic Dry Index (RHS, USD)
90% 1600% Li Keqiang (LHS, %) 12
80% 2,500
1400%
70% 10
1200% 2,000
60%
1000% 8
50% 1,500
800% 6
40%
600% 1,000
30% 4
20% 400%
500 2
10% 200%
0% 0% 0 0
Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb 20
Page 22Onshore vs Offshore market (3 month swap points)
Source from Bloomberg
Chinese Yuan, Renminbi (Pips) Taiwan Dollar
(Pips) Brazilian Real
(Pips)
700 Offshore USD/CNH Onshore USD/CNY - Offshore USD/TWD Onshore USD/TWD
400 Offshore USD/BRL NDF Onshore USD/BRL
600 -10
350
500
300 -20
400
250 -30
300
200
-40
200
150
100 -50
100
- -60
50
-100
-70
-
-200 Feb 20 May 20 Aug 20 Nov 20
Feb 20 May 20 Aug 20 Nov 20
Feb 20 May 20 Aug 20 Nov 20
Korean Won
Thai Baht (Pips)
(Pips) Indian Rupee (Pips) 2.00
15 Offshore USD/THB Onshore USD/THB
Offshore USD/INR NDF Onshore USD/INR Offshore USD/KRW Onshore USD/KWD
300
-
10
250 -2.00
200 5 -4.00
150 -6.00
-
100 -8.00
-5 -10.00
50
-12.00
- -10
Feb 20 May 20 Aug 20 Nov 20
Feb 20 May 20 Aug 20 Nov 20 Feb 20 May 20 Aug 20 Nov 20
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