Mizuho Dealer's View EMEA emerging currencies - 18 Jan, 2021 - Mizuho Financial Group
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Mizuho Dealer's View
EMEA emerging currencies
18 Jan, 2021
Mizuho Bank. Ltd.
European Treasury Department, London
Mizuho Bank Europe NV (Amsterdam)
AO Mizuho Bank (Moscow)
TEL: +44 (0) 20 7786 2500
Email: fx@mhcb.co.ukContents and Contributors
18 Jan, 2021 edition of Mizuho Dealer's View EMEA emerging currencies
Page
1. Polish Zloty 3 This week's movement against USD
Eri Kimbara, Amsterdam ( 8 Jan - 15 Jan )
2. Czech Koruna 4
Claire Marne, Amsterdam BRL
3. Hungarian Forint 5
MXN
Matthias Paschetag, Dusseldorf
4. Romanian Leu 6 RUB
Emiko Sato Noordman, Dusseldorf
5. Norwegian Krone 7 ZAR
Jun Iijima, Paris
INR
6. Swedish Krona 8
Jun Iijima, Paris THB
7. Russian Ruble 9
Ekaterina Sheblova , Moscow CNH
8. South African Rand 10
CZK
Joseph McElhill, London
9. Chinese Yuan, Renminbi (CNH) 11 RON
Colin Asher, London
10. Thailand Baht 12 HUF
Saba Zafar, London
TRY
11. Brazilian Real 13
Fumihiko Kanda, London PLN
12. Mexican Peso 14
Colin Asher, London NOK
13. Indian Rupee 15
SEK
Joseph McElhill, London
14. Turkish Lira 16 -3.00% -2.00% -1.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00%
Colin Asher, London
Source: Bloomberg
Page 2Polish Zloty
GDP YoY : 3.2% Unemployment rate : 2.9% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 4.5% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : 1.5% Eri Kimbara, Amsterdam
18 Jan, 2021
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
Kindly note that there is no market commentary on these currency pairs 3.78
USD/PLN (LHS) EUR/PLN (RHS)
4.6
this week as the author is away from the office.
3.76 4.58
3.74 4.56
3.72 4.54
3.7 4.52
3.68 4.5
3.66 4.48
3.64 4.46
3.62 4.44
21/12/2020 28/12/2020 04/01/2021 11/01/2021 18/01/2021
What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 18/1 ) forecast mean (15/01 close) (%)
PLN 10 year bond yeild (LHS) WIG20 Index (RHS)
1.26 2100
Against US Dollars : -
Against Euro : - 1.24 2050
1.22 2000
1.2 1950
1.18 1900
1.16 1850
1.14 1800
1.12 1750
21/12/2020 28/12/2020 04/01/2021 11/01/2021 18/01/2021
Page 3Czech Koruna
GDP YoY : 1.8% Unemployment rate : 2% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 3.6% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : -0.4% Claire Marne, Amsterdam
18 Jan, 2021
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
The Czech average inflation reached 3.2% in 2020, being the highest rate in USD/CZK (LHS) EUR/CZK (RHS)
21.8 26.4
8 years, despite December fall to 2.3%, the slowest in 2 years. Retail sales
21.7
have been impacted by the lockdown in November, but less than in April, as 26.35
well as food prices. December unemployment slightly increased from 3.8% 21.6 26.3
to 4%. With the legislative elections coming up this year, the government will 21.5
26.25
be eager to support employment with necessary stimulus. 21.4
26.2
21.3
26.15
21.2
21.1 26.1
21 26.05
20.9 26
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What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 18/1 ) forecast mean (15/01 close) (%)
CZK 10 year bond yeild (LHS) PX Index (RHS)
1.3 1100
Against US Dollars : 21.20 21.80 21.500 21.662
1.29 1080
Against Euro : 26.10 26.35 26.225 26.179
1.28 1060
Inflation could continue to fall this year, towards or even below the 2% target 1.27
of the central bank, due to food and energy prices, as unemployment is 1.26
1040
increasing with weaker wages. However with the optimism of the COVID-19 1.25
1020
vaccin and the hope of the pandemic fadding away, demand could increase, 1.24
1000
pushed up by the government's tax changes. CNB has time to restart its 1.23
980
tightening cycle, and is likely to wait till the last quarter of 2021 to hike the 1.22 960
rate. 1.21 940
1.2 920
21/12/2020 28/12/2020 04/01/2021 11/01/2021 18/01/2021
Page 4Hungarian Forint
GDP YoY : 4.5% Unemployment rate : 3.5% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 4.3% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : -0.9% Matthias Paschetag, Dusseldorf
18 Jan, 2021
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
During the last week, HUF weakend ag USD (-4.1%) with high volatility, and USD/HUF (LHS) EUR/HUF (RHS)
300 366
weakend ag EUR (-0.4%). 365
HUF weakend on Monday ag both USD, and EUR as Hungary's budget 298
364
deficit jumped on Dec spending spree - likely reaching 9% of GDP for 2020. 296 363
HUF traded back on Monday levels on Teusday. 362
As reported Thursday, CPI (yoY) rose 2.7% for December, as in Nov. 294 361
HUF ended the week at 298 ag USD and 361 ag EUR. 292 360
359
290 358
357
288
356
286 355
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What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 18/1 ) forecast mean (15/01 close) (%) HUF 10 year bond yeild (LHS) BUX Index (RHS)
2.4 46000
Against US Dollars : 293.00 - 303.00 298.00 298.39
Against Euro : 357.00 - 365.00 361.00 360.42 2.3 45000
Most likely, HUF will still react to more general market factors and corona 2.2
44000
news trading with higher volatility levels. 43000
2.1
42000
No major economic news 2
41000
1.9
40000
1.8 39000
1.7 38000
21/12/2020 28/12/2020 04/01/2021 11/01/2021 18/01/2021
Page 5Romanian Leu
GDP YoY : 4.3% Unemployment rate : 4% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 3.2% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : -4.6% Emiko Sato Noordman, Dusseldorf
18 Jan, 2021
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
RON continued to move in a similar range againt EUR but eased against USD/RON (LHS) EUR/RON (RHS)
4.06 4.88
USD last week.
RON started around 4.8685 against EUR and traded mostly between 4.8670 4.04 4.875
and 4.8740 throughout the week. Against USD RON opened round 3.9819 4.02
4.87
and slipped to a level above 4.0100 on Monday undermined by rising US 4
yields. Until Friday RON sold further to a 6-week low of 4.0338 as USD 4.865
3.98
bouyed by expectations for large stimulus by the new U.S. president. 4.86
3.96
4.855
3.94
3.92 4.85
3.9 4.845
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What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 18/1 ) forecast mean (15/01 close) (%)
RON 10 year bond yeild (LHS) BET Index (RHS)
3 10400
Against US Dollars : 3.97 - 4.07 4.02 4.04
Against Euro : 4.86 - 4.89 4.88 4.87 2.98
10200
RON is likely to trade in a range against EUR but be vulnerable against 2.96
10000
USD. Romania's Dec CPI rose 2.1% YoY, which was the lowest in more 2.94
than 2 years. This may allow another rate cut as some central bankers 2.92 9800
already mentioned that there was still a room for easing. On the other hand,
2.9
Romania's Constitutional Court admitted the objections by the liberal 9600
government last year against the law for 40% pension increase. This 2.88
9400
judgement will enable the new government to draw up more sustainable 2.86
budget and a downgrade to a junk status rating is likely be avoided. 2.84 9200
21/12/2020 28/12/2020 04/01/2021 11/01/2021 18/01/2021
Page 6Norwegian Krone
GDP YoY : 1.8% Unemployment rate : 3.9% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 1.1% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : 4% Jun Iijima, Paris
18 Jan, 2021
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
Kindly note that there is no market commentary on these currency pairs this USD/NOK (LHS) EUR/NOK (RHS)
8.8 10.7
week as the author is away from the office.
8.7 10.6
8.6 10.5
8.5 10.4
8.4 10.3
8.3 10.2
8.2 10.1
21/12/2020 28/12/2020 04/01/2021 11/01/2021 18/01/2021
.
What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 18/1 ) forecast mean (15/01 close) (%)
NOK 10 year bond yeild (LHS) OSEBX Index (RHS)
1.2 1020
Against US Dollars : -
Against Euro : - 1 1000
980
0.8
960
0.6
940
0.4
920
0.2 900
0 880
21/12/2020 28/12/2020 04/01/2021 11/01/2021 18/01/2021
Page 7Swedish Krona
GDP YoY : 0.8% Unemployment rate : 6.3% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 1% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : 3.9% Jun Iijima, Paris
18 Jan, 2021
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
Kindly note that there is no market commentary on these currency pairs this USD/SEK (LHS) EUR/SEK (RHS)
8.45 10.18
week as the author is away from the office. 10.16
8.4
10.14
8.35
10.12
8.3
10.1
8.25 10.08
8.2 10.06
10.04
8.15
10.02
8.1
10
8.05 9.98
8 9.96
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What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 18/1 ) forecast mean (15/01 close) (%) SEK 10 year bond yeild (LHS) OMX Index (RHS)
0.12 2000
Against US Dollars : -
Against Euro : - 0.1
1950
0.08
0.06 1900
0.04 1850
0.02
1800
0
-0.02 1750
21/12/2020 28/12/2020 04/01/2021 11/01/2021 18/01/2021
Page 8Russian Ruble
GDP YoY : 2.1% Unemployment rate : 4.6% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 2.4% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : 3.7% Ekaterina Sheblova , Moscow
18 Jan, 2021
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
On the first week of 2021 the Ruble has been strengthening from 75 to 73 76.5
USD/RUB (LHS) EUR/RUB (RHS)
93
against US dollar generally following the 11 months highest oil price and 76
overall appetite for the risk that favored most EM currencies. 75.5
92
By the end of the week USD/RUB rate went back to 74 as RUB positions 75
91
were closed ahead of the weekend and also due to the renewed purchases 74.5
of currency by the Ministry of Finance. 74 90
73.5
89
73
72.5
88
72
71.5 87
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What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 18/1 ) forecast mean (15/01 close) (%) RUB 10 year bond yeild (LHS) RTSI$ Index (RHS)
6.2 1550
Against US Dollars : 73.00 - 75.00 74.00 73.63
6.15
Against Euro : 88.00 - 91.00 89.50 88.97 1500
6.1
On this week the Ruble may start getting support from the start of the tax
payment season but the main factor to consider is if the oil continues the 6.05 1450
rally or suffers the correction. Many analysts believe oil to be heavily 6
1400
overbought at this level. The chances for the new sanctions talks on next 5.95
week are rather low as USA is going to be busy with the inauguration of the 5.9 1350
new President. 5.85
1300
5.8
5.75 1250
21/12/2020 28/12/2020 04/01/2021 11/01/2021 18/01/2021
Page 9South African Rand
GDP YoY : -0.5% Unemployment rate : 29.1% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 3.8% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : -3% Joseph McElhill, London
18 Jan, 2021
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
It was a rather uneventful week for the South African rand last week. As 15.8
USD/ZAR (LHS) EUR/ZAR (RHS)
19.2
higher yields on US Treasuries drew investors away from EM markets, most 19
15.6
EM currencies fell against the dollar, including the Rand which fell to a 7- 18.8
15.4
week low. It was however soon bought back, as investors mulled over the 18.6
outcome of the SARB’s rate decision on Thursday. Investors were however 15.2
18.4
net sellers of rand-denominated assets at the end of the week. 15 18.2
14.8 18
17.8
14.6
17.6
14.4
17.4
14.2 17.2
14 17
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What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 18/1 ) forecast mean (15/01 close) (%)
ZAR 10 year bond yeild (LHS) TOP40 Index (RHS)
8.9 60000
Against US Dollars : 15.00 - 15.50 15.25 15.23
Against Euro : 18.00 - 19.00 18.50 18.39 8.85 59000
Direction this week will most likely be governed by the SARB, ECB and 8.8
58000
CBT’s rate decisions due this Thursday. Other than that, there is not much 57000
8.75
economic data to be released, and the pair will most likely drift in the current 56000
range until said rate decisions are announced. 8.7
55000
8.65
54000
8.6
53000
8.55 52000
8.5 51000
21/12/2020 28/12/2020 04/01/2021 11/01/2021 18/01/2021
Page 10Chinese Yuan, Renminbi (CNH)
GDP YoY : -6.8% Unemployment rate : 3.6% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 5% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : 1% Colin Asher, London
18 Jan, 2021
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
Upbeat RMB sentiment ebbed this week as the $CNH-$CNY spread 6.56
USD/CNH (LHS) EUR/CNH (RHS)
8.05
narrowed to almost par. The unexpected Democratic win in the Georgia
6.54
Senate races and subsequent expectations for a significant US stimulus 8
6.52
package (~ US$ 1.9tn) sapped demand for the RMB. Expectations of 7.95
stronger US growth and soaring UST yields have narrowed China’s growth 6.5
differential and CNH’s yield advantage. USD/CNH ended the week little 6.48 7.9
changed around 6.48, having dropped as low as 6.45 mid-week 6.46 7.85
6.44
7.8
6.42
7.75
6.4
6.38 7.7
21/12/2020 28/12/2020 04/01/2021 11/01/2021 18/01/2021
What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
(%)
Expected Ranges ( The week of 18/1 ) forecast mean (15/01 close) CNH 10 year bond yeild (LHS) SHSZ300 Index (RHS)
3.3 5700
Against US Dollars : 6.40 - 6.50 6.45 6.48 5600
Against Euro : 7.79 - 7.91 7.85 7.83 3.25 5500
In a busy week for data the highlight will be GDP, which is seen accelerating 5400
above 6.0%YoY, helping to underscore China’s robust recovery. Recent 3.2
5300
upticks in the covid count are not likely to weigh on activity. As long as US 3.15
5200
equites can hold their ground and safe haven US$ demand remains under 5100
wraps, USD/CNH should be able to make further modest headway in the 3.1
5000
week ahead 4900
3.05 4800
4700
3 4600
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Page 11Thai Baht
GDP YoY : 1.6% Unemployment rate : 1% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 0.4% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : 7% Saba Zafar, London
18 Jan, 2021
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
Kindly note that there is no market commentary on these currency pairs this 30.3 USD/THB (LHS) EUR/THB (RHS) 37
week as the author is away from the office. 36.9
30.2
36.8
36.7
30.1
36.6
30 36.5
36.4
29.9
36.3
36.2
29.8
36.1
29.7 36
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What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
(%)
Expected Ranges ( The week of 18/1 ) forecast mean (15/01 close) GVTL10YR Index (LHS) SET Index (RHS)
1.4 1600
Against US Dollars : -
Against Euro : - 1.35 1550
1.3
1500
1.25
1450
1.2
1400
1.15
1.1 1350
1.05 1300
21/12/2020 28/12/2020 04/01/2021 11/01/2021 18/01/2021
Page 12Brazilian Real
GDP YoY : 1.7% Unemployment rate : 11.4% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 3.8% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : -2.7% Fumihiko Kanda, London
18 Jan, 2021
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
Previous week BRL was bullish backed by rising expectation on BCB (central USD/BRL (LHS) EUR/BRL (RHS)
5.6 6.8
bank) rate hike.
BRL entered the week with weak tone due to corona mutation concern on Monday 5.5 6.7
and hit 5.51 level vs USD. But BRL was dramatically bought back more than 3% 6.6
5.4
against USD on Tuesday as BCB intervened into FX market and data showed
6.5
consumer price rose 4.5% YoY in December which exceeded BCB target. There 5.3
was a rising expectation BCB may lift forward guidance in the near future to begin 6.4
5.2
raising policy rates. The trend went on and BRL hit 5.19 level vs USD on Thursday. 6.3
BRL was sold back a bit on Friday toward weekend. 5.1
6.2
5 6.1
4.9 6
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What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 18/1 ) forecast mean (15/01 close) (%)
BRL 10 year bond yield (LHS) IBOV Index
1280 126000
Against US Dollars : 5.00 - 5.50 5.25 5.30
1260
Against Euro : 6.10 - 6.70 6.40 6.40 124000
1240
BRL would be subdued with global concern on COVID-19. 122000
Market driver will be mainly virus-related (USD demand). Brazil leads COVID-19 1220
120000
case in Latin America area and economic slowdown in Brazil is serious. In addition 1200
118000
political/fiscal uncertainty cast further uncertainty on BRL. Investors are active on 1180
Brazilian stocks and the inflow became a certain support of BRL. 1160
116000
Domestically Selic rate decision on Wednesday night is on focus. Recent robust 1140 114000
economic indicators and some remark from BCB staff made investors prospect 112000
1120
rate-hike in the near future.
1100 110000
21/12/2020 28/12/2020 04/01/2021 11/01/2021 18/01/2021
Page 13Mexican Peso
GDP YoY : -0.5% Unemployment rate : 3.3% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 3.4% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : -0.2% Colin Asher, London
18 Jan, 2021
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
Hopes that Biden’s stimulus package will boost US growth and thus Mexican USD/MXN (LHS) EUR/MXN (RHS)
20.2 24.8
exports help support MXN though the week to its first weekly gain against
the greenback in 3 weeks. Energy prices were a little lower on the week but 20.1 24.6
did not trouble MXN too much. 20
24.4
19.9
24.2
19.8
24
19.7
23.8
19.6
19.5 23.6
19.4 23.4
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What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 18/1 ) forecast mean (15/01 close) (%) MXN 10 year bond yeild (LHS) MEXBOL Index (RHS)
8.2 48000
Against US Dollars : 19.40 20.00 19.70 19.80
8 47000
Against Euro : 23.20 - 24.00 23.60 23.92 7.8
General risk appetite is likely to remain an important driver of MXN in 7.6
46000
coming weeks and on balance we see scope for moderate gains. The data 7.4 45000
calendar is light implying a narrow range for MXN. Technically the recent 7.2 44000
low of USD/MXN 19.6010 looks vulnerable and a break would open the way 7 43000
for a move towards pre-Covid levels 6.8
42000
6.6
6.4 41000
6.2 40000
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Page 14Indian Rupee
GDP YoY : 4.7% Unemployment rate : -0.9% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 6.7% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : Joseph McElhill, London
18 Jan, 2021
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
USDINR was very much unchanged last week. The RBI announced on the USD/INR (LHS) EUR/INR (RHS)
74 90.5
Friday of the previous week that they will slowly be reverting back to pre-
pandemic liquidity operations, and were reported to have sucked 2 trillion 73.8 90
Rupees from the banking systems already. 73.6 89.5
73.4 89
73.2 88.5
73 88
72.8 87.5
72.6 87
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What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 18/1 ) forecast mean (15/01 close) (%)
INR 10 year bond yeild (LHS) NIFTY Index (RHS)
5.96 14800
Against US Dollars : 73.00 - 73.00 73.00 73.07
14600
5.94
Against Euro : 88.00 - 89.00 88.50 88.72
5.92 14400
There is no economic data due to be released this week. 5.9 14200
14000
5.88
13800
5.86
13600
5.84
13400
5.82 13200
5.8 13000
5.78 12800
5.76 12600
21/12/2020 28/12/2020 04/01/2021 11/01/2021 18/01/2021
Page 15Turkish Lira
GDP YoY : 6% Unemployment rate : 13.5% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 12.1% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : 0.2% Colin Asher, London
18 Jan, 2021
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
The dip in risk appetite at the end of the week weighed on TRY with USD/TRY (LHS) EUR/TRY (RHS)
7.7 9.5
unorthodox commentary on higher interest rates spurring inflation from
members of the government not helping sentiment either. 7.6
9.4
9.3
7.5
9.2
7.4 9.1
9
7.3
8.9
7.2
8.8
7.1 8.7
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What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 18/1 ) forecast mean (15/01 close) (%)
TRY 10 year bond yeild (LHS) XU100 Index (RHS)
13.2 1600
Against US Dollars : 7.38 - 7.50 7.44 7.47
Against Euro : 8.90 - 9.05 8.98 9.03 13 1550
Whilst TRY remains subject to general risk appetite and domestic political 12.8 1500
risks, it is one of the cheaper EM currencies. In the wake of 2020 volatility
TRY is among many people’s favourite EM currencies for 2021, as long as 12.6 1450
the global macro backdrop remains supportive. The central bank will likely 12.4 1400
leave rates on hold at its 21 January meeting after hiking aggressively in
12.2 1350
recent months.
12 1300
11.8 1250
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Page 16Market Implied Policy Rate
Source from Bloomberg
Implied policy rates using OIS market (%) Implied rate change in 3 months time (%)
-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4
Policy Rate 3 months 6 months 1 year 2 years 3 years
Americas Russia
United States 0.13 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.17 0.32 Taiwan
Canada 0.25 0.28 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 Turkey
Mexico 6.50 5.68 5.35 5.38 5.69 6.35
Romania
Chile 0.50 -0.01 0.02 0.11 0.86 1.52
Brazil 3.75 3.26 3.37 4.17 7.19 9.17 Japan
EMEA Canada
Euro Zone -0.50 -0.54 -0.57 -0.56 -0.56 -0.49 Uniterd Kingdom
Uniterd Kingdom 0.10 0.10 0.12 0.12 0.25 0.31 Hungary
Switzerland -0.75 -0.80 -0.79 -0.80 -0.75 -0.66
United States
Norway 0.25 -0.18 -0.23 -0.29 -0.21 -0.07
Sweden 0 -0.19 -0.20 -0.20 -0.21 -0.08 Euro Zone
Czech Republic 1.00 0.45 0.43 0.46 0.59 0.67 Switzerland
Poland 1.00 0.45 0.33 0.30 0.46 0.62 Korea
Romania 2.00 2.09 2.35 2.38 1.96 1.87
Sweden
Turkey 9.75 9.94 9.51 14.65 10.70 12.11
Russia 6.00 6.27 6.29 5.94 6.25 6.32 Thailand
Hungary 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.97 1.16 1.48 Norway
Asia / Pacific Brazil
China 2.20 1.63 2.04 1.89 2.24 2.63 Chile
India 4.40 3.58 3.84 3.63 3.99 4.37
Czech Republic
Korea 0.75 0.58 0.56 0.56 0.70 0.75
Japan -0.07 -0.02 -0.02 0.00 -0.03 -0.06 Poland
Thailand 0.75 0.34 0.49 0.63 0.73 0.92 China
Taiwan 1.13 1.34 0.82 0.40 1.78 0.71
Page 17(%)
(%)
-
-
10.0
12.0
14.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
-8.0
-2.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
-6.0
-4.0
Turkey Turkey
India India
China Hungary
Poland Romania
Hungary Poland
Brazil Russia
South Africa US
Czech Czech
Mexico
CPI YoY
Norway
GDP YoY
Romania Brazil
Russia Thailand
US Sweden
Norway Mexico
Sweden South Africa
Thailand China
Economic Indicators (Quarterly data)
(%)
(%)
-
-
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
5.0
8.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
Thailand South Africa
Norway Turkey
Sweden Brazil
Russia Sweden
Poland Russia
China
Romania
Turkey
Norway
Mexico
US
Czech
China
Current Account
Hungary
Hungary
Unemployment Rate
India
Mexico
US
Poland
Brazil
Czech
South Africa
Thailand
Romania
Source from Bloomberg
Page 18Economic Indicators (Quarterly data)
Source from Bloomberg
GDP YoY % (EMEA) GDP YoY % (Other EMs)
10 Czech Poland Hungary 20 Russia South Africa China Brazil
Romania Norway Sweden
Mexico India Turkey Thailand
8 15
6
10
4
5
2
0
0 Sep 10 Sep 12 Sep 14 Sep 16 Sep 18
Sep 10 Sep 12 Sep 14 Sep 16 Sep 18
-5
-2
-4 -10
CPI YoY % (EMEA) 25 CPI YoY % (Other EMs)
10
Czech Poland Hungary Russia South Africa China
Romania Norway Sweden 20 Brazil Mexico India
8
Turkey Thailand
6 15
4 10
2
5
0
Sep 10 Sep 12 Sep 14 Sep 16 Sep 18 0
Sep 10 Sep 12 Sep 14 Sep 16 Sep 18
-2
-5
-4
Page 19Economic Indicators (Quarterly data)
Source from Bloomberg
Umemployment rate % (EMEA) Umemployment rate % (Other EMs)
Czech Poland Hungary 35 Russia South Africa China Brazil
12
Romania Norway Sweden
Mexico India Turkey Thailand
30
10
25
8
20
6
15
4
10
2
5
0 0
Sep 10 Sep 12 Sep 14 Sep 16 Sep 18 Sep 10 Sep 12 Sep 14 Sep 16 Sep 18
Current Account % (EMEA) Current Account % (Other EMs)
15
15 Russia South Africa China Brazil
Czech Poland Hungary
Romania Norway Sweden Mexico India Turkey Thailand
10
10
5
5
0
0
Sep 10 Sep 12 Sep 14 Sep 16 Sep 18
Sep 10 Sep 12 Sep 14 Sep 16 Sep 18
-5 -5
-10 -10
Page 20Changes of Currencies against USD (Daily data)
Source from Bloomberg
60% Ranking over last 5 years
CZK
JPY
EUR
ZAR
40% PLN
RUB
NOK
RON
SEK
20% CNH
HUF
GBP
INR
MXN
THB
0% BRL
TRY
-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20%
Ranking over last 6 months
-20% MXN
ZAR
NOK
SEK
GBP
CNH
-40% BRL CNH HUF CZK
EUR
INR MXN NOK
RON
PLN RON SEK HUF
PLN
-60% TRY ZAR RUB JPY
INR
CZK EUR GBP BRL
JPY THB RUB
THB
Page 21Commodities (Daily data)
Source from Bloomberg
Commodity price change % Oil Price vs Oil Currencies %
20%
20%
10% Brent Oil Gold Copper Brent Oil RUB/USD NOK/USD
10%
0%
0%
Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr 17 Apr 18 Apr 19
-10% Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr 17 Apr 18 Apr 19
-10%
-20%
-20%
-30%
-30%
-40%
-40%
-50%
-50%
-60%
-60%
-70%
-70%
-80%
-80%
Crude Oil Production % of GDP Economic Activities
100% US(LHS) China(LHS) UK(LHS) 1800%
Saudi Arabia(RHS) Russia(RHS) Norway(RHS)
3,000 14
Baltic Dry Index (RHS, USD)
90% 1600% Li Keqiang (LHS, %) 12
80% 2,500
1400%
70% 10
1200% 2,000
60%
1000% 8
50% 1,500
800% 6
40%
600% 1,000
30% 4
20% 400%
500 2
10% 200%
0% 0% 0 0
Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr 17 Apr 18 Apr 19
Page 22Onshore vs Offshore market (3 month swap points)
Source from Bloomberg
Chinese Yuan, Renminbi (Pips) Taiwan Dollar
(Pips) Brazilian Real
(Pips)
300 Offshore USD/CNH Onshore USD/CNY 10 Offshore USD/TWD Onshore USD/TWD
400 Offshore USD/BRL NDF Onshore USD/BRL
250 -
350
200 -10
300
150 -20
250
100 -30
200
50 -40
150
-
-50
100
-50
-60
50
-100
-70
-
-150 Apr 19 Jul 19 Oct 19 Jan 20
Apr 19 Jul 19 Oct 19 Jan 20
Apr 19 Jul 19 Oct 19 Jan 20
Korean Won
Thai Baht (Pips)
(Pips) Indian Rupee (Pips) -
15 Offshore USD/THB Onshore USD/THB
Offshore USD/INR NDF Onshore USD/INR Offshore USD/KRW Onshore USD/KWD
300
-2.00
10
250
-4.00
5
200
-6.00
-
150
-8.00
-5
100
-10.00
50 -10
-12.00
- -15
Apr 19 Jul 19 Oct 19 Jan 20
Apr 19 Jul 19 Oct 19 Jan 20 Apr 19 Jul 19 Oct 19 Jan 20
Page 23Disclaimer
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Page 24Disclaimer and Confidentiality (Mizuho Bank Europe N.V.)
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