Mizuho Dealer's View EMEA emerging currencies - 16 Mar, 2020 - Mizuho EMEA
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Mizuho Dealer's View
EMEA emerging currencies
16 Mar, 2020
Mizuho Bank. Ltd.
European Treasury Department
Mizuho Bank Europe NV ( Netherlands )
AO Mizuho Bank ( Moscow )
TEL: +44 (0) 20 7786 2500
Email: fx@mhcb.co.ukContents and Contributors
16 Mar, 2020 edition of Mizuho Dealer's View EMEA emerging currencies
Page
1. Polish Zloty 3 This week's movement against USD
Joseph McElhill, London ( 6 Mar - 13 Mar )
2. Czech Koruna 4
Claire Marne, Amsterdam INR
3. Hungarian Forint 5
THB
Matthias Paschetag, Dusseldorf
4. Romanian Leu 6 CNH
Emiko Sato Noordman, Dusseldorf
5. Norwegian Krone 7 RON
Jun Iijima, Paris
HUF
6. Swedish Krona 8
Jun Iijima, Paris SEK
7. Russian Ruble 9
Ekaterina Sheblova , Moscow PLN
8. South African Rand 10
ZAR
Joseph McElhill, London
9. Chinese Yuan, Renminbi (CNH) 11 TRY
Taihei Yamamoto, London
10. Thailand Baht 12 BRL
Saba Zafar, London
CZK
11. Brazilian Real 13
Fumihiko Kanda, London RUB
12. Mexican Peso 14
Akane Vallery Uchida, London NOK
13. Indian Rupee 15
MXN
Eri Kimbara, Amsterdam
14. Turkish Lira 16 -9.00% -8.00% -7.00% -6.00% -5.00% -4.00% -3.00% -2.00% -1.00% 0.00%
Umit Calik, Amsterdam
Source: Bloomberg
Page 2Polish Zloty
GDP YoY : 3.1% Unemployment rate : 3.2% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 2.8% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : -0.1% Joseph McElhill, London
16 Mar, 2020
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
Kindly note that there is no market commentary on these currency pairs USD/PLN (LHS) EUR/PLN (RHS)
4 4.45
this week as the author is away from the office.
3.95 4.4
3.9
4.35
3.85
4.3
3.8
4.25
3.75
3.7 4.2
3.65 4.15
18/02/2020 25/02/2020 03/03/2020 10/03/2020
What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 16/3 ) forecast mean (13/03 close)
(%)
PLN 10 year bond yeild (LHS) WIG20 Index (RHS)
2.5 2500
Against US Dollars : -
Against Euro : -
2 2000
1.5 1500
1 1000
0.5 500
0 0
18/02/2020 25/02/2020 03/03/2020 10/03/2020
Page 3Czech Koruna
GDP YoY : 3.4% Unemployment rate : 2.1% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 3% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : 0.5% Claire Marne, Amsterdam
16 Mar, 2020
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
CZK has been under heavy pressure last week as investors sold emerging USD/CZK (LHS) EUR/CZK (RHS)
24.5 27.5
market currencies as fear of global recession due to COVID-19 spreading.
The crown reached its weakest level since June 2017. EUR/CZK broke 24 27
through 26 after President Trump announced 30 days ban on travelling 26.5
23.5
between most of the European countries and the USA as a prevention to
26
avoid the virus spreading on the US territory. Czech Republic closed the 23
schools to avoid contamination among the children. 25.5
22.5
25
22
24.5
21.5 24
21 23.5
18/02/2020 25/02/2020 03/03/2020 10/03/2020
What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 16/3 ) forecast mean (13/03 close)
(%)
CZK 10 year bond yeild (LHS) PX Index (RHS)
1.8 1200
Against US Dollars : 24.00 22.60 23.300 23.623
1.6
Against Euro : 26.50 25.40 25.950 26.316 1000
1.4
Markets expect CNB to cut the rate this year even if governor Rusnok
mentioned last week that a rate cut was at this time not necessary. The 1.2 800
outlook of the Czech economy has downside risk due to external negative 1
600
impacts. Even if February inflation accelerated to 3.7% exceeding 0.8
expectations, with the collapse of oil prices and global markets, the central 0.6 400
bank which suprisingly hiked the rate beginning of February might have to 0.4
reverse its move. 200
0.2
0 0
18/02/2020 25/02/2020 03/03/2020 10/03/2020
Page 4Romanian Leu
GDP YoY : 4.3% Unemployment rate : 4% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 3.7% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : -4.7% Emiko Sato Noordman, Dusseldorf
16 Mar, 2020
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
Like other currencies in the region RON stayed soft during the last week. USD/RON (LHS) EUR/RON (RHS)
4.5 4.88
After starting around 4.8080 agains EUR, RON soon sold to a level over
4.8200 due to a sharp fall in oil price. Risk aversion intensified on ECB's 4.45 4.86
disappointing decision and RON slipped further to a record low of 4.8270 on 4.4
4.84
12/3. Against USD RON made similar developments and sold to a 1 1/2- 4.35
4.82
week low of 4.3605 until 12/3. 4.3
4.8
4.25
4.78
4.2
4.76
4.15
4.1 4.74
4.05 4.72
18/02/2020 25/02/2020 03/03/2020 10/03/2020
What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 16/3 ) forecast mean (13/03 close)
(%)
RON 10 year bond yeild (LHS) BET Index (RHS)
6 12000
Against US Dollars : 4.32 - 4.37 4.35 4.36
Against Euro : 4.81 - 4.85 4.83 4.85 5 10000
RON is likely to remain vulnerable in coming weeks. Romania's goverment
which seeks an early election and therefore a no-vote in the parliament was 4 8000
increasingly expected to win the vote. And just before the confidence vote
3 6000
scheduled on 12/3, the designated PM Citu stepped down and the country's
president is likely name the interim PM Orban again. However, Orban's 2 4000
nomination was declaired as unconstitutional last month, so Romania's
political situation will continue to be uncertain further. 1 2000
0 0
18/02/2020 25/02/2020 03/03/2020 10/03/2020
Page 5Hungarian Forint
GDP YoY : 4.5% Unemployment rate : 3.4% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 3.4% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : -0.8% Matthias Paschetag, Dusseldorf
16 Mar, 2020
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
There were no economic news releases for Hungary last week, but HUF USD/HUF (LHS) EUR/HUF (RHS)
320 341
traded rather volatile and was dominated by other market factors. On
Thursday: Hungary sold 2025 Bonds with a coupon of 1% facing weak 315 340
investor demand (bid cover 1.06) at a yield of 1.46%, illustrating risk off 310
339
mode in financial markets. Hungarys Gov. tries to get a grip on corona: 338
305
closing universities, ban travellers from Italy among oth. countries, declaring 337
a state of emergency. Budapests stocks fell 10.5%. HUF weakend against 300
336
USD to a low of 308. Similarly, HUF weakend ag EUR with a low at 340, 295
335
after ECB did not cut rates (ag. expectations). HUF finished at 305 ag USD,
290
339 ag EUR. 334
285 333
280 332
18/02/2020 25/02/2020 03/03/2020 10/03/2020
What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 16/3 ) forecast mean (13/03 close) (%) HUF 10 year bond yeild (LHS) BUX Index (RHS)
3.5 50000
Against US Dollars : 299.00 - 311.00 305.00 305.08
45000
Against Euro : 334.00 - 344.00 339.00 339.07 3
40000
HUF is likely to trade more volatile this week again ag USD, EUR, since 2.5 35000
coruna virus is still the determining general factor driving market moves.
30000
Central Bank actions/comments will affect FX rates. 2
25000
1.5 20000
No economic news realeases scheduled for Hungary during this week.
1 15000
10000
0.5
5000
0 0
18/02/2020 25/02/2020 03/03/2020 10/03/2020
Page 6Norwegian Krone
GDP YoY : 1.8% Unemployment rate : 3.8% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 1.6% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : 4.4% Jun Iijima, Paris
16 Mar, 2020
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
NOK was trading around 9.3096 against USD, 10.5438 against EUR at the USD/NOK (LHS) EUR/NOK (RHS)
10.4 12
start of last week. On 12 Mar, NOK closed at 10.1668, 11.3701. On 13 Mar,
the central bank, Norges Bank reduced its policy rate by 50 bps to 1% to 10.2
11.5
fight with the economic impact from the coronavirus outbreak. The 10
confirmed infected cases counted 137k and death cases 5k on 13 Mar. 9.8 11
9.6
10.5
9.4
9.2 10
9
9.5
8.8
8.6 9
18/02/2020 25/02/2020 03/03/2020 10/03/2020
.
What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 16/3 ) forecast mean (13/03 close) (%)
NOK 10 year bond yeild (LHS) OSEBX Index (RHS)
1.6 1000
Against US Dollars : 9.30 - 10.40 9.85 10.08
900
Against Euro : 10.40 - 11.60 11.00 11.08 1.4
800
Upon the central banks' actions last week, the turnaround in the market is 1.2
700
expected this week. Even though Norway holds the largest sovereign wealth 1 600
fund, the sharp plunge in oil price shall have impact on GDP and it seems
that it will take time to rally. 0.8 500
As for economic releases, no major data release is scheduled for this week. 0.6 400
300
0.4
200
0.2 100
0 0
18/02/2020 25/02/2020 03/03/2020 10/03/2020
Page 7Swedish Krona
GDP YoY : 1.6% Unemployment rate : 6.3% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 1.7% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : 4% Jun Iijima, Paris
16 Mar, 2020
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
SEK started around 9.3818, 10.6164 against USD and EUR at the USD/SEK (LHS) EUR/SEK (RHS)
9.9 11
beginning of last week. On 12 Mar, SEK closed at 9.7546, 10.9127. On 13
Mar, the central bank announced that it could lend up to SEK 500 bn 9.8 10.9
(approx. USD 51 bn) to assist credit flows under the current severe market 9.7 10.8
situation and the governor, Stefan Ingves added that currency interventions
9.6 10.7
and a policy rate cut are possible if necessary, to maintain the liquidity in the
market. 9.5 10.6
9.4 10.5
9.3 10.4
9.2 10.3
9.1 10.2
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What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 16/3 ) forecast mean (13/03 close) (%) SEK 10 year bond yeild (LHS) OMX Index (RHS)
0.1 2000
Against US Dollars : 9.40 - 10.00 9.70 9.71
1800
Against Euro : 10.60 - 11.00 10.80 10.78 0
1600
ECB announced the large stimulus package, Fed, BOE and Norway's
-0.1 1400
central bank cut their policy rates last week. It is not sure how those easing
1200
measures are effective and when/where it bottoms out. However, there -0.2
1000
have been some views that balancing started. -0.3
Regarding the economic releases this week, no major data releases are 800
scheduled. -0.4 600
400
-0.5
200
-0.6 0
18/02/2020 25/02/2020 03/03/2020 10/03/2020
Page 8Russian Ruble
GDP YoY : 1.7% Unemployment rate : 4.6% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 3.4% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : 6.8% Ekaterina Sheblova , Moscow
16 Mar, 2020
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
Several shocks collapsed ruble quotes this week. During the long weekend, 76
USD/RUB (LHS) EUR/RUB (RHS)
90
due to the holiday, it became known that Russia left the OPEC + deal and
74 80
starting from April 1 there are no restrictions on production. It sharply ruined
72
oil market to multi-year lows as well as ruble exchange rates. Second factor 70
70
was the announcement by the World Health Organization (WHO) of an 60
outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic. During Thursday trades USDRUB 68
50
reached 75,48 which is the maximum since Feb 2016. CBR announced the 66
40
suspension of the purchase of currency in the market according to the 64
budget rule, even started FX interventions to support the Ruble. 62
30
60 20
58 10
56 0
18/02/2020 25/02/2020 03/03/2020 10/03/2020
What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 16/3 ) forecast mean (13/03 close)
(%)
RUB 10 year bond yeild (LHS) RTSI$ Index (RHS)
9 1800
Against US Dollars : 70.00 - 76.00 73.00 72.63
8 1600
Against Euro : 79.00 - 84.00 81.50 80.48
7 1400
Currency rate movement during this week will still be determined by the
dynamics of oil price and updates for COVID-19 spreading. Most likely RUB 6 1200
is going to stay under pressure amid the global risk evasion and remain 5 1000
exceptionally volatile. CBR meeting this Friday will additionally increase the 4 800
uncertainty for all RUB nominated assets. 3 600
2 400
1 200
0 0
18/02/2020 25/02/2020 03/03/2020 10/03/2020
Page 9South African Rand
GDP YoY : 0.1% Unemployment rate : 29.1% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 3.8% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : -3.2% Joseph McElhill, London
16 Mar, 2020
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
Kindly note that there is no market commentary on these currency pairs this USD/ZAR (LHS) EUR/ZAR (RHS)
17 19
week as the author is away from the office.
18.5
16.5
18
16 17.5
17
15.5
16.5
15 16
15.5
14.5
15
14 14.5
18/02/2020 25/02/2020 03/03/2020 10/03/2020
What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 16/3 ) forecast mean (13/03 close) (%)
ZAR 10 year bond yeild (LHS) TOP40 Index (RHS)
12 60000
Against US Dollars : -
Against Euro : -
10 50000
8 40000
6 30000
4 20000
2 10000
0 0
18/02/2020 25/02/2020 03/03/2020 10/03/2020
Page 10Chinese Yuan, Renminbi (CNH)
GDP YoY : 6% Unemployment rate : 3.6% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 4.3% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : 1.3% Taihei Yamamoto, London
16 Mar, 2020
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
The USD/CNH rate was trading around 6.935 at the start of the last week in 7.06
USD/CNH (LHS) EUR/CNH (RHS)
8
which we expect the pair to be greatly affected by the coronavirus outbreak.
7.04
The dollar has rallied on the back of de-leveraging back into dollars 7.9
7.02
triggered in part by dislocation in the USD money market and Trump's calls
7 7.8
for a payroll tax cut on Friday. The market also reacted to the NY Fed's total
6.98
of $1500bn repo operations on Thursday. However, the movement last 7.7
week has been relatively limited ahead of Monday's G7 meetings of central 6.96
7.6
bank heads and finance ministers and Wednesday's 18:00 Federal Reserve 6.94
policy decision this week. The market has been cautious as there's a risk 6.92 7.5
that something is announced by the Fed before Wednesday. 6.9
7.4
6.88
6.86 7.3
18/02/2020 25/02/2020 03/03/2020 10/03/2020
What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
(%)
Expected Ranges ( The week of 16/3 ) forecast mean (13/03 close) CNH 10 year bond yeild (LHS) SHSZ300 Index (RHS)
3 4300
Against US Dollars : 7.00 - 7.06 7.03 7.02
4200
Against Euro : 7.75 - 7.85 7.80 7.80 2.9
4100
The main focus this week would be markets' reactions to the worldwide 2.8
countermeasures against the Coronavirus. Especially in the US, Trump 4000
wants a payroll tax freeze, worth US$300bn and the Democrats want more 2.7 3900
targeted measures to support those most affected. In the long run, there are 2.6 3800
no winners in this Covid-19 pandemic, but we suspect that when the 3700
situation settles, the dollar could end up a little lower. This assumes that the 2.5
3600
Fed responds to the dislocation with a 100bp rate cut on 18 March and 2.4
restarts quantitative easing at 50 billion per month. On the economic 3500
calendar this week, all eyes are on EU finance ministers two-day meeting 2.3 3400
18/02/2020 25/02/2020 03/03/2020 10/03/2020
from Monday.
Page 11Thai Baht
GDP YoY : 1.6% Unemployment rate : 1% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 0.4% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : 6.3% Saba Zafar, London
16 Mar, 2020
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
Thai Bhat experienced gains last week after government approved stimulus 32.2 USD/THB (LHS) EUR/THB (RHS) 36.5
measure to boost the economy from the outbreak of corona virus. USD/THB 32 36
dropped to 31.394 , 0.4%, before trading at 31.429. Thailand plans to inject
400 billion bhat. Generally , there was an uptrend for the pair, due to the 31.8 35.5
stronger dollar. 31.6 35
31.4 34.5
31.2 34
31 33.5
30.8 33
30.6 32.5
18/02/2020 25/02/2020 03/03/2020 10/03/2020
What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
(%)
Expected Ranges ( The week of 16/3 ) forecast mean (13/03 close) GVTL10YR Index (LHS) SET Index (RHS)
1.4 1800
Against US Dollars : 31.80 - 32.30 32.05 31.80
1600
Against Euro : 34.40 - 36.00 35.20 35.32 1.2
1400
Going forward, Bank of Thailand will meet on March 25 as it monitors Fed’s 1
latest rate cuts , a 1% cut on Sunday, following the adverse impact of the 1200
global outbreak of the virus. We will continue to see volatility in both 0.8 1000
directions in the market. 0.6 800
600
0.4
400
0.2
200
0 0
18/02/2020 25/02/2020 03/03/2020 10/03/2020
Page 12Brazilian Real
GDP YoY : 1.2% Unemployment rate : 11.3% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 3.4% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : -2.6% Fumihiko Kanda, London
16 Mar, 2020
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
Kindly note that there is no market commentary on these currency pairs this week USD/BRL (LHS) EUR/BRL (RHS)
4.9 5.6
as the author is away from the office.
4.8
5.4
4.7
5.2
4.6
4.5 5
4.4 4.8
4.3
4.6
4.2
4.4
4.1
4 4.2
18/02/2020 25/02/2020 03/03/2020 10/03/2020
What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 16/3 ) forecast mean (13/03 close)
(%)
BRL 10 year bond yeild (LHS) IBOV Index
10 140000
Against US Dollars : -
9
Against Euro : - 120000
8
7 100000
6
80000
5
60000
4
3 40000
2
20000
1
0 0
18/02/2020 25/02/2020 03/03/2020 10/03/2020
Page 13Mexican Peso
GDP YoY : -0.3% Unemployment rate : 3.3% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 2.9% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : -0.4% Akane Vallery Uchida, London
16 Mar, 2020
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
Kindly note that there is no market commentary on these currency pairs this USD/MXN (LHS) EUR/MXN (RHS)
25 30
week as the author is away from the office.
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0 0
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What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 16/3 ) forecast mean (13/03 close)
(%) MXN 10 year bond yeild (LHS) MEXBOL Index (RHS)
1.2 50000
Against US Dollars : -
45000
Against Euro : - 1
40000
35000
0.8
30000
0.6 25000
20000
0.4
15000
10000
0.2
5000
0 0
18/02/2020 25/02/2020 03/03/2020 10/03/2020
Page 14Indian Rupee
GDP YoY : 4.5% Unemployment rate : -1.5% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 5.8% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : Eri Kimbara, Amsterdam
16 Mar, 2020
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
Last Thursday INR hit the record low of 74.50 against USD after WHO USD/INR (LHS) EUR/INR (RHS)
75 86
declared COVID-19 a pandemic. Bonds were sold off as risk aversion and
74.5
investors panicked in the turmoil led by the virus. RBI assured that 84
74
necessary steps would be taken to maintain sufficient liquidity in the
73.5 82
currency market and it supported the currency to some extent. 73
72.5 80
72 78
71.5
71 76
70.5
74
70
69.5 72
18/02/2020 25/02/2020 03/03/2020 10/03/2020
What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 16/3 ) forecast mean (13/03 close)
(%)
INR 10 year bond yeild (LHS) NIFTY Index (RHS)
6.5 14000
Against US Dollars : 73.50 - 75.50 74.50 73.90
Against Euro : 82.50 - 85.00 83.75 82.56 6.4 12000
The coronavirus pandemic has gripped the global markets. This week the 6.3 10000
market will continue to be very volatile. However it seems that INR has hit
6.2 8000
the bottom so there could be some buying movement this week. As of last
Friday, total confirmed corona cases in India was 81 and public places were 6.1 6000
shutdown in a number of states.
6 4000
5.9 2000
5.8 0
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Page 15Turkish Lira
GDP YoY : 1% Unemployment rate : 13.9% ( Note: These opinions do not necessarily agree with the other contents of this report )
CPI YoY : 10.3% Curr. Acct. % of GDP : 0.7% Umit Calik, Amsterdam
16 Mar, 2020
Summary of last week's market Movement over the past month Source from Bloomberg
Kindly note that there is no market commentary on these currency pairs this USD/TRY (LHS) EUR/TRY (RHS)
6.5 7.2
week as the author is away from the office.
7.1
6.4
7
6.3 6.9
6.8
6.2
6.7
6.1
6.6
6 6.5
6.4
5.9
6.3
5.8 6.2
18/02/2020 25/02/2020 03/03/2020 10/03/2020
What to expect this week Domestic stock market and interest rates Source from Bloomberg
Expected Ranges ( The week of 16/3 ) forecast mean (13/03 close)
(%)
TRY 10 year bond yeild (LHS) XU100 Index (RHS)
13 140000
Against US Dollars : -
Against Euro : - 12.5 120000
100000
12
80000
11.5
60000
11
40000
10.5 20000
10 0
18/02/2020 25/02/2020 03/03/2020 10/03/2020
Page 16Market Implied Policy Rate
Source from Bloomberg
Implied policy rates using OIS market (%) Implied rate change in 3 months time (%)
-0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3
Policy Rate 3 months 6 months 1 year 2 years 3 years
Americas Taiwan
United States 1.63 1.27 1.35 1.10 1.00 1.04 Romania
Canada 1.75 1.61 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 Hungary
Mexico 7.25 6.80 6.58 6.21 5.92 6.04
India
Chile 1.75 1.73 1.75 1.76 2.17 2.61
Brazil 4.50 4.31 4.26 5.01 6.55 7.32 Sweden
EMEA Czech Republic
Euro Zone -0.50 -0.51 -0.53 -0.57 -0.56 -0.50 Poland
Uniterd Kingdom 0.75 0.65 0.56 0.42 0.46 0.49 Euro Zone
Switzerland -0.75 -0.85 -0.81 -0.85 -0.80 -0.77
Japan
Norway 1.50 1.46 1.45 1.37 1.24 1.20
Sweden 0 0.00 0.01 -0.04 -0.02 0.01 Chile
Czech Republic 2.00 2.00 1.99 1.84 1.58 1.42 Norway
Poland 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.47 1.42 1.50 Thailand
Romania 2.50 2.58 2.11 2.10 2.42 2.20
Russia
Turkey 11.25 10.99 10.89 12.40 11.79 12.17
Russia 6.25 6.18 6.10 5.69 6.01 6.11 China
Hungary 0.90 0.97 1.04 1.21 1.48 1.79 Uniterd Kingdom
Asia / Pacific Switzerland
China 2.50 2.41 2.50 2.51 2.74 2.61 Korea
India 5.15 5.17 5.23 5.19 5.38 5.52
Canada
Korea 1.25 1.14 1.14 1.10 1.08 1.11
Japan -0.04 -0.05 -0.07 -0.18 -0.15 -0.14 Brazil
Thailand 1.25 1.18 1.16 1.20 1.28 1.41 Turkey
Taiwan 1.38 1.59 1.31 1.12 1.38 1.36
Page 17(%)
(%)
-
-
2.0
10.0
12.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
-1.0
Turkey China
India India
China Hungary
South Africa Romania
Romania Czech
Russia Poland
Hungary US
Brazil Norway
Czech
CPI YoY
Russia
GDP YoY
Mexico Thailand
Poland Sweden
US Brazil
Sweden Turkey
Norway South Africa
Thailand Mexico
Economic Indicators (Quarterly data)
(%)
(%)
-
-
5.0
10.0
20.0
25.0
15.0
30.0
35.0
4.0
8.0
-6.0
-4.0
2.0
6.0
-2.0
Russia South Africa
Thailand Turkey
Norway Brazil
Sweden Sweden
China Russia
Turkey Romania
Czech
Norway
Poland
China
Mexico
US
Current Account
Hungary
Hungary
Unemployment Rate
India
Mexico
US
Poland
Brazil
Czech
South Africa
Thailand
Romania
Source from Bloomberg
Page 18Economic Indicators (Quarterly data)
Source from Bloomberg
GDP YoY % (EMEA) GDP YoY % (Other EMs)
10 Czech Poland Hungary 20 Russia South Africa China Brazil
Romania Norway Sweden
Mexico India Turkey Thailand
8 15
6
10
4
5
2
0
0 Jun 10 Jun 12 Jun 14 Jun 16 Jun 18
Jun 10 Jun 12 Jun 14 Jun 16 Jun 18
-5
-2
-4 -10
CPI YoY % (EMEA) 25 CPI YoY % (Other EMs)
10
Czech Poland Hungary Russia South Africa China
Romania Norway Sweden 20 Brazil Mexico India
8
Turkey Thailand
6 15
4 10
2
5
0
Jun 10 Jun 12 Jun 14 Jun 16 Jun 18 0
Jun 10 Jun 12 Jun 14 Jun 16 Jun 18
-2
-5
-4
Page 19Economic Indicators (Quarterly data)
Source from Bloomberg
Umemployment rate % (EMEA) Umemployment rate % (Other EMs)
Czech Poland Hungary 35 Russia South Africa China Brazil
12
Romania Norway Sweden
Mexico India Turkey Thailand
30
10
25
8
20
6
15
4
10
2
5
0 0
Jun 10 Jun 12 Jun 14 Jun 16 Jun 18 Jun 10 Jun 12 Jun 14 Jun 16 Jun 18
Current Account % (EMEA) Current Account % (Other EMs)
15
15 Czech Poland Hungary Russia South Africa China Brazil
Romania Norway Sweden Mexico India Turkey Thailand
10
10
5
5
0
0
Jun 10 Jun 12 Jun 14 Jun 16 Jun 18
Jun 10 Jun 12 Jun 14 Jun 16 Jun 18
-5 -5
-10 -10
Page 20Chages of Crrencies against USD (Daily data)
Source from Bloomberg
40% Ranking over last 5 years
JPY
CZK
EUR
PLN
RON
20% THB
HUF
CNH
SEK
RUB
INR
0% GBP
NOK
ZAR
MXN
BRL
TRY
-20% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20%
Ranking over last 6 months
THB
CNH
EUR
SEK
-40%
JPY
PLN
BRL CNH HUF GBP
CZK
INR MXN NOK
RON
PLN RON SEK HUF
-60% INR
TRY ZAR RUB TRY
RUB
CZK EUR GBP ZAR
JPY THB NOK
MXN
BRL
Page 21Commodities (Daily data)
Source from Bloomberg
Commodity price change % Oil Price vs Oil Currencies %
5%
5%
0% Brent Oil Gold Copper Brent Oil RUB/USD NOK/USD
0%
Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb 19
-5% Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb 19
-5%
-10%
-10%
-15%
-15%
-20%
-20%
-25%
-25%
-30%
-30%
-35%
-35%
-40%
-40%
-45%
-45%
Crude Oil Production % of GDP Economic Activities
100% US(LHS) China(LHS) UK(LHS) 1800% 3,000 14
Saudi Arabia(RHS) Russia(RHS) Norway(RHS) Baltic Dry Index (RHS, USD)
90% 1600% Li Keqiang (LHS, %) 12
80% 2,500
1400%
70% 10
1200% 2,000
60%
1000% 8
50% 1,500
800% 6
40%
600% 1,000
30% 4
20% 400%
500 2
10% 200%
0% 0% 0 0
Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb 19
Page 22Onshore vs Offshore market (3 month swap points)
Source from Bloomberg
(Pips) Taiwan Dollar
Chinese Yuan, Renminbi (Pips) Brazilian Real
(Pips)
300 Offshore USD/CNH Onshore USD/CNY 10 Offshore USD/TWD Onshore USD/TWD
400 Offshore USD/BRL NDF Onshore USD/BRL
250 350 -
200 300
-10
150 250
-20
100 200
50 150 -30
- 100
-40
-50 50
-50
-
-100 Feb 19 May 19 Aug 19 Nov 19
Feb 19 May 19 Aug 19 Nov 19
Feb 19 May 19 Aug 19 Nov 19
Korean Won
Thai Baht (Pips)
(Pips) Indian Rupee (Pips) -
15 Offshore USD/THB Onshore USD/THB
120 Offshore USD/INR NDF Onshore USD/INR -0.50 Offshore USD/KRW Onshore USD/KWD
10 -1.00
100
-1.50
5
80
-2.00
- -2.50
60
-3.00
40 -5
-3.50
20 -10 -4.00
-4.50
- -15
Feb 19 May 19 Aug 19 Nov 19
Feb 19 May 19 Aug 19 Nov 19 Feb 19 May 19 Aug 19 Nov 19
Page 23Disclaimer
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Page 24Disclaimer and Confidentiality (Mizuho Bank Europe N.V.)
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