The KSA Real Estate Market - JLL Research Report Mid-Year Review 2019 - AWS

Page created by Vincent Schwartz
 
CONTINUE READING
JLL Research Report

The KSA Real Estate Market
Mid-Year Review 2019

                       KSA
02      The KSA Real Estate Market Mid-Year Review 2019   The KSA Real Estate Market Mid-Year Review 2019                                                                                                                                         03

Riyadh                                                     Market Summary

                                                           The real estate market in Riyadh softened further during the second quarter of 2019.
                                                           In the office sector, rental rates continued to register declines while vacancy increased
                                                           on an annual basis, amid limited corporate activity. Similarly, residential sale prices
                                                           and rental rates dropped Y-o-Y. The strong government initiatives to boost demand are
                                                           expected to reflect positively on performance levels in the long-run. Meanwhile, retail
                                                           malls recorded mixed performance with average rental rates in the better quality super
                                                           regional malls remaining stable, while decreases where noted in regional centers and
                                                           community centers. Hotel occupancy rates in the year-to-May 2019 registered 59%,
                                                           while average daily room rates dropped 10% Y-o-Y to register USD 162 over the same
                                                           period. Our long-term outlook for the hotel market remains positive due to growing
                                                           developments in the entertainment sector.

                                                           Riyadh - Prime Rental Clock

                                                                                       Rental            Rents                                                                        Rental            Rents
                                                                                      Growth             Falling                                                                     Growth             Falling
                                                                                      Slowing                                                                                        Slowing
                                                                                                                                       Retail
                                                                                                                                       Residential
                                                                                     Rental              Rents                                                                       Rental             Rents
                                                                                    Growth               Bottoming                                                                 Growth              Bottoming
                                                                               Accelerating               Out                       Hotel*                                     Accelerating              Out
                                                                                                                                  Office                                                                                         Office

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Retail
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Hotel*
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Residential

                                                                                             Q2 2018                                                                                         Q2 2019

                                                                                                   * Hotel clock reflects the movement of RevPAR (Revenue per available room: ADR * occupancy rate)
                                                           Note: The property clock is a graphical tool developed by JLL to illustrate where a market sits within its individual rental cycle. These positions are not necessarily representative of
                                                           investment or development market prospects. It is important to recognize that markets move at different speeds depending on their maturity, size and economic conditions. Markets
                                                                          will not always move in a clockwise direction, they might move backwards or remain at the same point in their cycle for extended periods. Source: JLL
04                                                                                                         The KSA Real Estate Market Mid-Year Review 2019       The KSA Real Estate Market Mid-Year Review 2019                                                                                                                  05

 Office                                                                                                                                                          Residential

 Supply                                                                                                                                                          Supply
 The office market in Riyadh witnessed the delivery of                             5                                                                             Q2 2019 witnessed the delivery of 7,600 residential units,                     1.5
                                                                                                                                            0.10                                                                                                                                                                          0.03
 one major project, the first phase of Riyadh Business                                                                            0.15                           increasing the total inventory of apartments and villas                                                                              0.02
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               0.03
 Front, adding 33,000 sq m of office GLA. Along with a few                                                                                                       to 1.3 million units. More than 50,000 units are expected
 other minor additions, this brings the total office stock                         4                                                                             to be delivered over the next two years (2019 and
 to 4.3 million sq m as of end Q2 2019. An additional                                                                                                            2020). These are expected to comprise of high-quality
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                1.0
                                                             GLA (sq m million)
 155,200 sq m of office GLA is scheduled for delivery over                                                                                                       apartments and townhouses that meet the population’s

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Units (million)
 the next six months.                                                              3                                                                             need for more modern and contemporary living
                                                                                                                                                                 solutions at affordable rates.
 The completion and delivery of the first phase of Riyadh
 Business Front ushers in new potentials for the office                            2                                                                             These efforts continue to be supported by growth in
 market in Riyadh. The project boasts advanced and                                                                                                               demand as a result of government initiatives to increase                       0.5
 modern work spaces based on smart technologies and                                                                                                              home ownership rates to 60% by 2020 and 70% by 2030
                                                                                   1
 provides flexible working spaces to suit companies                                      3.47       3.57       4.07     4.26      4.29      4.45       4.55      as stipulated in Vision 2030. Statistics from the Saudi                                   1.19      1.24           1.26   1.29       1.30     1.32       1.35
 of various sizes and requirements. Construction is                                                                                                              Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA) shows an annual
 currently underway on the second phase of the project                                                                                                           acceleration in real estate loans in Q2 2019 versus Q2
                                                                                   0                                                                                                                                                              0
 which is due to complete within the next two years.                                                                                                             2018. This indicates financial institutions have been
                                                                                         2015      2016       2017     2018      Q2 2019   2020F      2021F                                                                                               2015      2016        2017       2018     Q2 2019   2020F      2021F
                                                                                                                                                                 allocating an increasing share of their loans to housing
 Looking ahead, an additional 104,000 sq m of office                                                                                                             and real estate.
                                                                                                   Current Supply                           Future Supply                                                                                                           Current Supply                             Future Supply
 GLA is expected to handover by 2020. However we
 remain cautious of the delivery of projects within their
 timeframe, and can expect some projects to be delayed                                                                                             Source: JLL                                                                                                                                                         Source: JLL
 to 2021.

 Performance                                                                                                                                                     Performance
 Performance of the office market remained weak in Q2                             Vacancy Rate                                                                   The performance of the residential market continued                            Residential rents and sale indices
 2019 with average Grade A rents dropping 4% to reach                                                                                                            to soften in Q2 2019, with average rents decreasing at
 SAR 1,360 per sq m per annum, while average Grade                                                     8%                                  8%                    a slower rate than average sale prices. Rents across                           Apartments - Sale                            Rent
 B rents dropped 1% to register SAR 1,030 per sq per                                                                                                             apartments and villas declined 1% on an annual and
 annum. In turn, vacancy rates remained relatively stable                                                                                                        quarterly basis. Meanwhile sale prices dropped 5% Y-o-Y
 Y-o-Y at 8% as no corporate expansions were noted.                                                                                                              in both apartments and villas.                                                       -5%                   -5%                     -1%                -1%
 In the face of limited demand, we expect rents to face                                  Q2 2018                          Q2 2019
 further downward pressure should additional supply be                                                                                                           Looking ahead, as more supply is expected to enter the                               Q-o-Q                 Y-o-Y                   Q-o-Q              Y-o-Y
 delivered over the next six months.                                                                                                               12 month      market over the next two years, rents and sale prices
                                                                                                                                                    outlook      are likely to remain under pressure. However, the rate of
 In the medium-to-long term, the office market is set                                                                                                            decline is expected to slow down as the impact of the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       12 month                                       12 month
 to benefit from the expected opening of the 176.7 km                                                                                                            government initiatives takes effect. These are expected                                                outlook                                        outlook
 Riyadh metro and a parallel bus network. The first                                                                                                              to increase demand for residential properties, which is
 section of the metro, which is set to open by the end of                         Average Rent (SAR / sq m)                                                      expected to reflect positively on the performance of the                       Villas - Sale                                Rent
 2019, will bring new travel options to the city’s rapidly                                                                                                       market in the long-run.
 expanding population and ease business travel as it
 links to the main commercial hubs. When it becomes                                                                                                                                                                                                   -4%                   -5%                     -1%                -1%
 fully operational in 2021, the Riyadh metro will be the                                1,300                Y-o-Y
                                                                                                                               1,250                                                                                                                  Q-o-Q                 Y-o-Y                   Q-o-Q              Y-o-Y
 world’s largest public transport project and an integral
                                                                                                             -4%
 component to achieving the country’s Vision 2030.                                     Q2 2018                             Q2 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       12 month                                       12 month
                                                                                                                                                   12 month
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        outlook                                        outlook
                                                                                                                                                    outlook

                                                                                                                                                   Source: JLL                                                                                                                               Source: Ministry of Justice (MoJ), JLL
06                                                                                                              The KSA Real Estate Market Mid-Year Review 2019             The KSA Real Estate Market Mid-Year Review 2019                                                                                                      07

 Retail                                                                                                                                                                     Hotel

 Supply                                                                                                                                                                     Supply
 Riyadh’s retail market saw the delivery of approximately                            3                                                                                      The total number of hotel keys in Riyadh increased to                          20
 157,630 sq m of GLA in Q2 2019. This increased the                                                                                                 0.13                    14,350 by the end of Q2 2019, with the addition of Shaza                                                                            2         0.16
                                                                                                                                         0.27
 total market inventory to 2.3 million sq m. The Zone                                                                                                                       Riyadh Hotel Residence (225 keys). An additional 1,500                                                                       2
 and University Avenue were two prominent and well                                                                                                                          keys are expected to enter the market over the second
 received additions to the market over the second                                                                                                                           half of 2019.                                                                  15
                                                                                     2
                                                              GLA (sq m million)
 quarter. In line with global trends and the growth of the

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Keys (thousand)
 Food and Beverage industry, these additions consist of                                                                                                                     Future supply includes Narcissus Classic Tower, Hilton
 various outlets ranging from high-end dining to fast food                                                                                                                  Riyadh King Saud University, Nobu Hotel Riyadh by                              10
 restaurants, in addition to luxury brands that were once                                                                                                                   Nobu Hospitality, the first property for the brand in the
 absent from Riyadh’s retail scene.                                                                                                                                         middle East, the Grand Millennium, and the New Airport
                                                                                    1
                                                                                                                                                                            Marriott Hotel.
 Construction is currently underway to complete an                                                                                                                                                                                                          5
 additional 277,100 sq m of retail space over the next                                        1.69       1.84       2.05     2.15        2.31        2.59       2.71        Further growth in the branded serviced apartment                                      10        11        12     14          14     16         18
 six months. While we remain cautious of the delivery                                                                                                                       segment is expected, with several properties due to
 of stock within the timeframe, and can expect some                                                                                                                         hand over in 2019 including Hilton Riyadh King Saud
                                                                                    0                                                                                                                                                                       0
 delays in handover, the majority of this stock is expected                                                                                                                 University Residence and Mercure Al Anoud by Princess
                                                                                              2015      2016       2017     2018        Q2 2019     2020F      2021F                                                                                             2015      2016     2017    2018    Q2 2019    2020F     2021F
 to be of high-quality shopping centers with a strong                                                                                                                       Al Anoud Foundation.
 entertainment and food and beverage element. These
                                                                                                        Current Supply                              Future Supply                                                                                                          Current Supply                      Future Supply
 include retail centers such as Qurtoba Boulevard, River
 Walk Center and Shorofat Al Nada Park. This comes as
 developers in the Kingdom look to differentiate their                                                                                                      Source: JLL                                                                                                                                                Source: JLL
 products to secure a large consumer base.

 Performance                                                                                                                                                                Performance
 Retail rents in Riyadh registered mixed performance                               Vacancy Rate                                                                             Hotel occupancy rates recorded 59% in the YT May 2019                          Occupancy
 over the second quarter. While average rents in regional                                                                                                                   versus 58% in YT May 2018. Meanwhile, average daily
 malls and community centers declined 6 % and 5%                                                             12%                                  14%                       room rates (ADR’s) fell significantly to USD 162 (SAR 608)                                       58%                              59%
 respectively in Q2 2019 versus Q2 2018, rents in high                                                                                                                      over the same period. In turn, revenues per available
 quality super regional malls remained stable over the                                                                                                                      room (RevPar’s) declined to reach USD 94 (SAR 353).
 same period. This is particularly the case in those malls                                                                                                                  Performance is expected to remain under pressure as
 where owners have successfully managed to introduce                                                                                                                        more supply is added to the market over the next                                      YT May                     YT May
                                                                                              Q2 2018                          Q2 2019
 new concepts such as entertainment options and niche                                                                                                                       12-24 months.                                                                          2018                       2019
 F&B outlets. Meanwhile, the decline in rents in regional                                                                                                   12 month                                                                                                                                                   12 month
 and community malls can be attributed to tenants                                                                                                            outlook        In the long run however, government initiatives to                                                                                          outlook
 moving out of the older centers and into the higher                                                                                                                        promote the hospitality sector in the Kingdom and in                                                   Y-o-Y
 quality malls. As such, vacancy rates increased in Q2                                                                                                                      Riyadh specifically, are expected to reflect positively                                               100 bp
 2019 to register 14%.                                                             Average Rent (% change)                                                                  on the performance of hotels. To this extent, Qiddiya
                                                                                                                                                                            revealed the masterplan of its giga-project which
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           ADR (USD)
 Looking ahead, and as the Kingdom actively progresses                             Super Regional                Regional                       Community                   aims to cement it as the “Capital of Entertainment,
 with plans to diversify its economy away from oil                                                                                                                          Sports and the Arts”. This is expected to generate
 and expand its retail and tourism sector, we expect                                     0%          -0%            -4%         -6%               -3%           -5%         large opportunities for job creation and private sector
 household spending to increase, particularly on                                     Q-o-Q           Y-o-Y          Q-o-Q       Y-o-Y             Q-o-Q         Y-o-Y       participation in the economy, particularly in the                                    179              Y-o-Y
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   162
 entertainment and F&B. This is supported by initiatives                                                                                                                    hospitality sector.                                                                                   -10%
 to create more job opportunities and support women                                                                                                                                                                                                             YT May                        YT May
 entering the workforce, thus increasing the purchasing                                               12 month                      12 month                     12 month
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2018                          2019
 power of the population.                                                                              outlook                       outlook                      outlook                                                                                                                                              12 month
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        outlook

                                                                                                                                                            Source: JLL                                                                                                                                        Source: STR Global
Jeddah   The KSA Real Estate Market Mid-Year Review 2019   The KSA Real Estate Market Mid-Year Review 2019

                                                           Market Summary

                                                           The real estate market in Jeddah remained subdued in Q2 2019. Office rents
                                                           weakened further while vacancy rates showed annual improvement mainly in
                                                           quality office space. With more supply expected to handover in the short term, office
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   09

                                                           performance will likely remain under downward pressure. In the residential sector,
                                                           sale prices and rental rates continued to decline, albeit at a slower rate, indicating
                                                           the market is close to the bottom of its cycle. The retail sector registered mixed
                                                           performance, with the better quality super regional malls with entertainment options
                                                           recording stable rents, while regional centres saw rents drop. Meanwhile, hotel
                                                           occupancy rates decreased marginally in the YT May 2019 when compared to the
                                                           same period in 2018. In turn, average daily rates and revenues per available room
                                                           registered annual declines.

                                                           Jeddah - Prime Rental Clock

                                                                                       Rental            Rents                                                                        Rental            Rents
                                                                                      Growth             Falling                                                                     Growth             Falling
                                                                                      Slowing                                                                                        Slowing

                                                                                                                                        Residential
                                                                                     Rental              Rents                                                                       Rental             Rents
                                                                                    Growth               Bottoming                                                                 Growth              Bottoming
                                                                               Accelerating               Out                                                                  Accelerating              Out

                                                                                                                               Office
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Office
                                                                                                                            Retail
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Retail
                                                                                                                   Hotel*
                                                                                                                                                                                                               Residential
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Hotel*

                                                                                             Q2 2018                                                                                         Q2 2019

                                                                                                   * Hotel clock reflects the movement of RevPAR (Revenue per available room: ADR * occupancy rate)
                                                           Note: The property clock is a graphical tool developed by JLL to illustrate where a market sits within its individual rental cycle. These positions are not necessarily representative of
                                                           investment or development market prospects. It is important to recognize that markets move at different speeds depending on their maturity, size and economic conditions. Markets
                                                                          will not always move in a clockwise direction, they might move backwards or remain at the same point in their cycle for extended periods. Source: JLL
10                                                                                                          The KSA Real Estate Market Mid-Year Review 2019     The KSA Real Estate Market Mid-Year Review 2019                                                                                                                    11

 Office                                                                                                                                                         Residential

 Supply                                                                                                                                                         Supply
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               7           7
 Demand for office space remained weak in Q2 2019                                   1.5                                                                         Q2 2019 witnessed the handover of Bayat Plaza Tower                              850                                                  4
 on the back of slow business activity. Consequently,                                                                                                           One on Madinah Road (176 units), with the remaining
 no noticeable completions took place over the                                                                                                                  Tower Two expected to complete in 2019. The
                                                                                                                                          0.026     0.005
 quarter, leaving the total office stock in Jeddah at                                                                            0.079                          completion of approximately 1,500 stand-alone units                              680
 1.06 million sq m of GLA. While some developers put                                                                                                            bring the total stock of residential units in Jeddah to
                                                                                    1.0
 their projects on hold, others aim to attract new tenants     GLA (sq m million)                                                                               821,000, with a further 4,000 units expected to hand over

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Units (thousand)
 by offering them the flexibility of choice between shell                                                                                                       during the second half of the year.                                              510
 and core, semi or fully fitted-out or serviced offices
 within the same premises.                                                                                                                                      Scheduled completions this year include the mid-rise Al
                                                                                                                                                                Tawheed Tower along the Corniche (122 units), Emaar                              340
 Assuming no further delays, an additional 79,000 sq m                              0.5                                                                         Residences ‘Abraj Al Hilal 3’ within Jeddah Gate (283
 of stock is expected to handover in the second half of                                                                                                         units), and the first phase of Manazil Al Safa. While
 2019, which is below the previously estimated                                             0.89      0.97       1.01    1.06      1.06     1.14      1.17       most projects are nearing completion, some are either                            170          789     803           813   817        821      825         832
 91,000 sq m. Expected completions include Al Rawdah                                                                                                            available for reservations only or are put on hold until
 Business Avenue and Caira Plaza on Prince Saud                                                                                                                 market conditions and sentiment improves.
                                                                                     0                                                                                                                                                              0
 Al Faisal, Vision Tower on Prince Sultan street, and
                                                                                           2015      2016      2017     2018    Q2 2019   2020F     2021F                                                                                                   2015     2016       2017      2018     Q2 2019   2020F      2021F
 Signature and Sara Square on Malik Road, in addition to                                                                                                        Looking ahead, and assuming no further delays in
 Corniche Centre on Corniche Road.                                                                                                                              construction, an additional 14,000 units are expected to
                                                                                                    Current Supply                        Future Supply                                                                                                              Current Supply                          Future Supply
                                                                                                                                                                enter the market between 2020-2021.

                                                                                                                                                  Source: JLL                                                                                                                                                        Source: JLL

 Performance                                                                                                                                                    Performance
 Commercial rents remained under downward pressure                                  Vacancy Rate                                                                Performance in the residential market remained                                   Residential rents and sale prices
 across Jeddah in Q2 2019. As landlords continue to offer                                                                                                       subdued in Q2 2019. Average rental rates declined
 leasing incentives to attract new tenants, average Grade                                               22%                               20%                   10% for both apartments and villas on an annual                                  Apartments - Sale                         Rent
 A rents dropped 17% to reach SAR 1,030 per sq m per                                                                                                            basis, while sale prices registered annual declines of
 annum, while average Grade B rents dropped 12% to                                                                                                              6% for apartments and 7% for villas. However, the
 average SAR 750 per sq m per annum. In turn, market                                                                                                            rate of decline appears to have slowed down over the                                    -2%                 -6%                   -1%                -10%
 wide office vacancies decreased 200 basis points to                                                                                                            quarter as rents and sale prices dropped 1% and 2%
 reach 20% Y-o-Y.
                                                                                           Q2 2018                         Q2 2019                              respectively.                                                                           Q-o-Q               Y-o-Y                 Q-o-Q               Y-o-Y

                                                                                                                                                  12 month
 In the short to medium term, we are likely to see                                                                                                              As more supply is expected to handover in the next 12
 rents dropping further as more supply enters the
                                                                                                                                                   outlook      months, we expect sale prices and rental rates to drop                                                 12 month                                     12 month
 market. In the long run however, increased investment                                                                                                          further, albeit at a slower rate. While housing initiatives                                             outlook                                      outlook
 opportunities and the ease of travel stimulated by                                                                                                             by the Ministry of Housing (MoH) had a positive effect
 the new King Abdulaziz International Airport (KAIA) is                             Average Rents (SAR / sq m)                                                  on access to home financing, some households are                                 Villas - Sale                             Rent
 expected to reflect positively on the appetite for doing                                                                                                       opting to hold back or pull out of buying a home as
 business in Jeddah. In turn, this will reflect positively                                                                                                      they anticipate further drops in residential prices. In the
 on the performance of office buildings across the city,                                                                                                        long run however, and as economic activity picks up on                                  -2%                 -7%                   -1%                -10%
 particularly Grade A space.                                                               1,055              Y-o-Y
                                                                                                                               901                              the back of government efforts and housing initiatives,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Q-o-Q               Y-o-Y                 Q-o-Q               Y-o-Y
                                                                                                                                                                we expect ownership rates to increase, thus exerting
                                                                                                              -15%
                                                                                          Q2 2018                          Q2 2019                              upward pressure on rents and prices.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       12 month                                     12 month
 * Changes to the methodology have impacted performance                                                                                          12 month
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        outlook                                      outlook
    figures. Please refer to the ‘Definitions & Methodology’                                                                                       outlook
    section for more detail.

                                                                                                                                                  Source: JLL                                                                                                                              Source: Ministry of Justice (MoJ), JLL
12                                                                                                             The KSA Real Estate Market Mid-Year Review 2019          The KSA Real Estate Market Mid-Year Review 2019                                                                                                       13

 Retail                                                                                                                                                                 Hotel

 Supply                                                                                                                                                                 Supply
 There were no notable mall completions in Q2 2019,                                  2.0                                                                                The second quarter saw the opening of one budget                                 20
 leaving the total retail supply in Jeddah relatively                                                                                                                   branded hotel, Ibis Jeddah Malik Road, adding                                                                                                  2
 unchanged at approximately 1.43 million sq m. Looking                                                                                           0.172                  approximately 180 keys. This brings the total supply of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             3
 ahead, the market is expected to witness an additional                                                                               0.075                             hotel keys in Jeddah to 11,900.
 75,000 and 172,000 sq m of retail GLA in 2019 and 2020                              1.5                                                                                                                                                                 15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1
                                                                GLA (sq m million)                                                                                      A further 1,000 keys are expected to enter the market

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Keys (thousand)
 respectively, with the potential completion of the retail
 component of Jeddah Park (Serafi Mall – 125,000 sq m)                                                                                                                  in 2019. These properties include Ibis Jeddah Alesayi
 on Tahlia Street. The remaining pipeline comprises of                               1.0                                                                                Plaza, the new Jeddah Marriott in Al Bawadi, Crowne                              10
 neighbourhood and community centres, with notable                                                                                                                      Plaza Jeddah, and Park Inn by Radisson Madinah Road,
 projects including Atelier Lavie, Sunset Avenue, Obhur                                                                                                                 the first property for the brand. Further growth in the
 Mall, Manuel Square, Al Hamra Square, and WOW.                                                                                                                         branded serviced apartment segment is expected, with
                                                                                     0.5                                                                                several properties due to hand over in 2019 including                             5
 While a number of commercial-driven cinema                                                     1.25    1.35           1.39   1.42     1.43       1.51       1.68       Adagio Jeddah Malik Road and Adagio Alesayi Plaza.                                      8        10      11      11        12       13        16
 multiplexes have emerged across the country, Q2 2019
 saw the launch of the Kingdom’s first arthouse ‘Cinema                                                                                                                 Looking ahead, the recently-opened Neom Bay Airport,
                                                                                      0                                                                                                                                                                   0
 El Housh’ in Jeddah’s historic district Al Balad. While this                                                                                                           as part of the Neom Project, is expected to attract
                                                                                                2015   2016       2017        2018   Q2 2019     2020F      2021F                                                                                              2015    2016     2017    2018     Q2 2019   2020F    2021F
 was introduced as part of the Jeddah Season festival,                                                                                                                  more investments due to enhanced connectivity, thus
 we can expect more initiatives to launch in the future                                                                                                                 boosting demand in the hospitality market. This is likely
                                                                                                       Current Supply                            Future Supply                                                                                                         Current Supply                      Future Supply
 as the Kingdom aims to increase household spending                                                                                                                     to reflect positively on the branded hotel segment as the
 on entertainment, and improve participation in cultural                                                                                                                city prepares to cater to a more diverse tourist base.
 activities in line with Vision 2030.                                                                                                                     Source: JLL                                                                                                                                              Source: JLL

 Performance                                                                                                                                                            Performance
 Average retail rents in Jeddah saw mixed performance                                Vacancy Rate                                                                       Hotel occupancy rates registered 53% in the YT May                               Occupancy
 in Q2 2019. While rents in regional malls decreased                                                                                                                    2019 compared to 54% in the YT May 2018. Meanwhile,
 3% on an annual basis, rents in super regional centres                                                        11%                               10%*                   average daily room rates (ADR’s) declined 12% Y-o-Y to                                                54%                          53%
 remained stable over the same period. As landlords                                                                                                                     register USD 215 (SAR 806). In turn, revenue per available
 continued to offer yearly leasing incentives to retain                                                                                                                 room (RevPar’s) dropped 13% to record USD 114 (SAR
 tenants, market wide vacancies decreased marginally                                                                                                                    428) over the same period. In the face of a strong supply
 to reach 10% Y-o-Y.                                                                             Q2 2018                        Q2 2019                                 pipeline, hotel performance is expected to soften further                               YT May                    YT May
                                                                                                                                                                        over the remainder of the year.                                                          2018                      2019
 Looking ahead, retail rents and vacancies are likely to face                                                                                             12 month                                                                                                                                                 12 month
 further pressure as more supply is expected to enter the                                                                                                  outlook      Our view of the hotel market remains positive in the long                                                                                   outlook
 market over the next 12-24 months. This will give tenants                                                                                                              run, given the government’s commitment to investing                                                    Y-o-Y
 more choice and negotiating power. Pressure is also likely                                                                                                             in giga-projects that not only promote tourism, but also                                              -100 bp
 to mount from the growth of e-commerce in Saudi Arabia.                             Average Rent                                                                       diversify the Kingdom’s tourist base. Particularly for
                                                                                     Regional                                   Super Regional                          Jeddah, which is dominated by religious tourism, these                           ADR (USD)
 The retail market is supported by many initiatives such                                                                                                                investments are likely to drive a mix of corporate, leisure,
 as the introduction of e-tourism visas in time for the                                                                                                                 local and international visitors.
 Jeddah Season 2019. Visitors buying online tickets for                                    -1%                 -3%                    0%                   0%
 the festival are able to secure an e-tourism visa at the                                  Q-o-Q               Y-o-Y                 Q-o-Q                Y-o-Y                                                                                                 244            Y-o-Y
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               215
 same time. We expect similar initiatives to be launched                                                                                                                                                                                                                       -12%
 in order to promote both retail and tourism spend.                                                                                                                                                                                                           YT May                          YT May
                                                                                                           12 month                                      12 month                                                                                              2018                            2019
 * Changes to the methodology have impacted performance                                                    outlook                                       outlook                                                                                                                                                  12 month
    figures. Please refer to the ‘Definitions & Methodology’                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        outlook
    section for more detail.

                                                                                                                                                          Source: JLL                                                                                                                                       Source: STR Global
Makkah
 14      The KSA Real Estate Market Mid-Year Review 2019   The KSA Real Estate Market Mid-Year Review 2019

                                                           Market Summary

                                                           In Makkah, the hotel sector witnessed some activity as a number of properties were
                                                           handed over. Occupancy rates and average daily room rates increased significantly
                                                           due to the rise in the number of visas issued during the Umrah season. This in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   15

                                                           turn reflected positively on revenues per available rooms. In the retail sector, rents
                                                           declined in the Markazia area but increased elsewhere in the city. Residential
                                                           rents and sale prices continued to drop and are expected to face further downward
                                                           pressure as more supply enters the market. Meanwhile, performance of the office
                                                           market continued to soften as rents decreased. The sector is expected to remain
                                                           under pressure over the next 12 months.

                                                           Makkah - Prime Rental Clock

                                                                                       Rental            Rents                                                                        Rental            Rents
                                                                                      Growth             Falling                                                                     Growth             Falling
                                                                                      Slowing                                                                                        Slowing

                                                                                     Rental              Rents                                                                       Rental             Rents
                                                                                    Growth               Bottoming                                                                 Growth              Bottoming
                                                                               Accelerating               Out                                                                  Accelerating              Out
                                                                                                                                   Residential

                                                                                                                               Retail                                                                                         Residential

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Retail
                                                                                                                    Hotel*                                                                                        Office
                                                                                                                                                                                    Hotel*
                                                                                                           Office

                                                                                             H1 2018                                                                                         H1 2019

                                                                                                   * Hotel clock reflects the movement of RevPAR (Revenue per available room: ADR * occupancy rate)
                                                           Note: The property clock is a graphical tool developed by JLL to illustrate where a market sits within its individual rental cycle. These positions are not necessarily representative of
                                                           investment or development market prospects. It is important to recognize that markets move at different speeds depending on their maturity, size and economic conditions. Markets
                                                                          will not always move in a clockwise direction, they might move backwards or remain at the same point in their cycle for extended periods. Source: JLL
16                                                                                                           The KSA Real Estate Market Mid-Year Review 2019     The KSA Real Estate Market Mid-Year Review 2019                                                                                                                    17

 Office                                                                                                                                                          Residential

 Supply                                                                                                                                                          Supply
 Despite delays in the handover of some office projects,                             450                                                                         Approximately 2,000 stand-alone residential units were                           450
                                                                                                                                            16         4
 H1 2019 saw the completion of one corporate office,                                                                               80
                                                                                                                                                                 delivered during the first half of 2019 in Makkah, bringing                                                                           3        7            7
 Mashareq 1 – Southeast Asia Foundation, adding                                                                                                                  the total supply to around 389,500 units. A further
 6,900 sq m of office GLA to the market. This brings the                                                                                                         3,000 units are expected to handover in the remainder
 total supply of office GLA to approximately 312,000 sq m.                                                                                                       of the year.
                                                                GLA (sq m million)   300                                                                                                                                                          300

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Units (thousand)
 Naseem Offices, an 80,000 sq m of Grade A office GLA                                                                                                            Notable upcoming deliveries include apartments in
 within Tilal Al Naseem Complex, is expected to be                                                                                                               U-Shaped, a residential building within Tilal Al Naseem
 delivered within the next 6 months. However other                                                                                                               Complex, in addition to a number of villas in phase 1 of
 projects in the pipeline that were scheduled for delivery                                                                                                       Sumou District within Bawabat Makkah.
 in 2019 are being delayed into 2020. The majority of this                           150                                                                                                                                                          150
 delayed office space (approximately 16,500 sq m of GLA)                                                                                                         These developments target the upper end of the market
 is dominated by Grade B office space.                                                      219        256       297      305      312      392       408        and do not alleviate the shortage of affordable housing                                       367     376           383   387        389      392         399
                                                                                                                                                                 in the market. Nonetheless, we expect the Makkah
 In the long term, demand for office space in Makkah is                                                                                                          residential market to pick up in the long run with the
                                                                                      0                                                                                                                                                              0
 expected to pick up on the back of major government                                                                                                             completion of all major mega-projects such as King
                                                                                            2015      2016      2017     2018    H1 2019   2020F     2021F                                                                                                   2015     2016       2017      2018     H1 2019   2020F      2021F
 initiatives such as improving the connectivity of                                                                                                               Abdulaziz Road, Jabal Omar, Thakher, and Rua’a Al
 the city. This is supported by large-scale mixed-use                                                                                                            Haram Al Makki developments.
                                                                                                     Current Supply                        Future Supply                                                                                                              Current Supply                          Future Supply
 developments such as King Abdulaziz Road Project,
 which will significantly improve the quality of office
 space in Makkah.                                                                                                                                  Source: JLL                                                                                                                                                        Source: JLL

 Performance                                                                                                                                                     Performance
 Despite the limited current supply, average office rents                            Vacancy Rate                                                                Performance of the residential market in Makkah                                  Residential rents and sale prices
 in Makkah continued to soften, registering annual                                                                                                               remained subdued in H1 2019. Residential sale prices
 declines of 8% to reach SAR 559 per sq m per annum.                                                     34%                               30%*                  registered annual declines of 10% for both apartments                            Apartments - Sale                         Rent
 Meanwhile, market wide vacancy rates recorded 30% in                                                                                                            and villas. On a 6-months basis, sale prices declined by
 H1 2019 as corporate activity remained limited.                                                                                                                 8% and 4% for apartments and villas respectively.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         -8%                 -10%                   -6%               -12%
 With the new supply expected to enter the market                                                                                                                Average apartment rents softened 12% Y-o-Y while
 over the next 12 months, we expect office rents and
                                                                                            H1 2018                         H1 2019                              decreasing at a slower rate of 6% over the past                                     6 months                Y-o-Y                6 months             Y-o-Y
 vacancies to remain under further pressure, particularly                                                                                                        6 months. In turn, villas rents declined 2% and 3%
                                                                                                                                                   12 month
 for the lower quality offices. This will result in landlords                                                                                                    on a 6-months and annual basis respectively. As more
 offering leasing incentives to retain their tenants and
                                                                                                                                                    outlook      supply is expected to enter the market, rents and sale                                                 12 month                                     12 month
 keep them from moving to newer locations which                                                                                                                  prices are likely to remain under further pressure over                                                 outlook                                      outlook
 offer better quality and connectivity. Looking ahead,                                                                                                           the next 12 months.
 the operational Al Haramain Railway, which runs from                                Average Rents (SAR / sq m)                                                                                                                                   Villas - Sale                             Rent
 Jeddah to Makkah, is likely to boost demand for office
 space.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         -4%                 -10%                   -2%                -3%
                                                                                            608                Y-o-Y
                                                                                                                                559                                                                                                                  6 months                Y-o-Y                6 months             Y-o-Y
                                                                                                               -8%
                                                                                           H1 2018                          H1 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        12 month                                     12 month
 * Changes to the methodology have impacted performance                                                                                           12 month
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         outlook                                      outlook
    figures. Please refer to the ‘Definitions & Methodology’                                                                                        outlook
    section for more detail.

                                                                                                                                                   Source: JLL                                                                                                                              Source: Ministry of Justice (MoJ), JLL
18                                                                                                                  The KSA Real Estate Market Mid-Year Review 2019     The KSA Real Estate Market Mid-Year Review 2019                                                                                                      19

 Retail                                                                                                                                                                 Hotel

 Supply                                                                                                                                                                 Supply
 Delays to retail projects currently under construction                                  1.5                                                                  0.06      Approximately 1,300 keys entered the market over the                            80
 left the total stock of retail space unchanged at                                                                                                0.08                  first half of 2019, with two internationally branded hotels
                                                                                                                                         0.05                                                                                                                                                                         5
 1.24 million sq m over the first half of 2019. A further                                                                                                               within Tilal Al Naseem Complex, Millennium Makkah Al
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           17
 47,300 and 75,700 sq m of GLA is expected to enter the                                                                                                                 Naseem (821 keys) and Copthorne Makkah Al Naseem
 market in 2019 and 2020 respectively.                                                                                                                                  (486 keys). This brings the total supply of quality hotel                       60
                                                                                         1.0
                                                                    GLA (sq m million)                                                                                  keys to 39,100 as of H1 2019.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Keys (thousand)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    7
 The bulk of future retail supply comprises of community
 and neighborhood centres. Scheduled completions                                                                                                                        2019 and 2020 are expected to witness the delivery of                           40
 include Naseem Souq and Naseem Line Shops within                                                                                                                       an additional 6,500 and 17,400 keys respectively.
 Tilal Al Naseem, in addition to the third phase of Jabal                                                                                                               Upcoming hotels include the first phase of Maad
 Omar. These properties are expected to deliver better                                   0.5                                                                            Hospitality Towers (4,400 keys), Copthorne Makkah Al
 shopping and entertainment experiences to target                                                                                                                       Adl (1,485 keys), Park Inn by Radisson Al Hajla (1,600                          20
 pilgrims from various countries. While strip retail does                                           1.15     1.18       1.20    1.24     1.24      1.29       1.37      keys), the Double Tree by Hilton (680 keys), the Address                               29       33      36      38        39       46        63
 not typically count towards quality supply, a number                                                                                                                   Makkah JODC (1,500 keys), and the recently announced
 of retail plazas contribute to the total GLA given its                                                                                                                 Crowne Plaza Makkah Beban (1,200 Keys). Budget hotels
                                                                                          0.0                                                                                                                                                            0
 significance and popularity in Makkah.                                                                                                                                 also have a significant share in the new supply to cater
                                                                                                    2015    2016       2017     2018    H1 2019   2020F      2021F                                                                                            2015    2016     2017    2018     H1 2019   2020F    2021F
                                                                                                                                                                        for the changing visitor demographics.
 The expected increase in visitors during the 2019 Hajj
                                                                                                            Current Supply                        Future Supply                                                                                                       Current Supply                      Future Supply
 season is set to benefit retailers who typically enjoy                                                                                                                 The strength of the future supply pipeline cements
 above average sales during the season, particularly in                                                                                                                 Makkah’s position as a strategic tourism hub, as the
 areas close to the Holy Mosque.                                                                                                                          Source: JLL   government aspires to attract over 30 million Umrah                                                                                       Source: JLL
                                                                                                                                                                        pilgrims and 6.7 million Hajj pilgrims by 2030.

 Performance                                                                                                                                                            Performance
 The retail sector in Makkah continued to soften in H1                                   Vacancy Rate                                                                   Hotel performance in Makkah improved in the YT May                              Occupancy
 2019. While average retail rents in the Markazia area and                                                                                                              2019. On an annual basis, occupancy rates increased to
 community centres outside of the Markazia dropped 4%                                                               5%                            5%                    70% while average daily room rates (ADR’s) increased                                                 61%                          70%
 and 5% respectively, rents in regional centres increased                                                                                                               20% to reach USD 161 (SAR 604). In turn, revenue per
 slightly by 1% due to limited stock. Meanwhile, rents                                                                                                                  available rooms (RevPAR’s) increased significantly to USD
 remained unchanged in neighbourhood centres.                                                                                                                           113 (SAR 424); a 38% increase from YT May 2018 figures.
                                                                                                      H1 2018                     H1 2019                                                                                                                      YT May                    YT May
 With limited retail supply entering the market, vacancies                                                                                                              This improvement can be largely attributed to the rising                                2018                      2019
 remained unchanged at 5% Y-o-Y. In the short to                                                                                                          12 month      number of Umrah pilgrims. Despite ongoing work on the                                                                                     12 month
 medium term, we expect rents to drop further and                                                                                                          outlook      Mosque expansion and delays in major infrastructure                                                                                        outlook
 vacancies to increase as more supply enters the market,                                                                                                                works, data from the Ministry of Hajj and Umrah                                                       Y-o-Y
 particularly for community and neighbourhood centres.                                                                                                                  highlighted a boost in the number of Umrah pilgrims this                                             900 bp
 It is likely that retailers will adjust rents to reflect more                           Change in Average Rents (H1 2018 – H1 2019)                                    year, reaching 7.2 million as of May 2019. The number of
 reasonable rates and offer flexible leasing terms to                                                                                                                   visas issued also increased to 7.5 million compared to                          ADR (USD)
                                                                                               Regional         Community         Neighbourhood           Markazia
 attract new tenants.                                                                                                                                                   last year’s Umrah season.

                                                                                                 1%                 -5%                0%                   -4%         Looking ahead, the peak Hajj season later this year
                                                                                                Y-o-Y               Y-o-Y              Y-o-Y               Y-o-Y        is expected to have a significant impact on the                                        134            Y-o-Y
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              161
                                                                                                                                                                        performance of the hotel market. This is backed by                                                    20%
                                                                                                                                                                        the substantial infrastructure investments to increase                               YT May                          YT May
                                                                                                                                                                        capacity in the coming years.                                                         2018
                                                                 12 month                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2019                12 month
 * Changes to the methodology have impacted performance
    figures. Please refer to the ‘Definitions & Methodology’      outlook                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          outlook
    section for more detail.

                                                                                                                                                          Source: JLL                                                                                                                                      Source: STR Global
DMA
20    The KSA Real Estate Market Mid-Year Review 2019   The KSA Real Estate Market Mid-Year Review 2019

                                                        Market Summary

                                                        The performance of the real estate market in DMA remained weak in the first half
                                                        of 2019. In the office sector, rental rates declined 10% from H1 2018 levels, while
                                                        vacancy rates remained unchanged. Similarly, sale prices and rental rates in the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                21

                                                        residential sector recorded declines over the same period. In the retail sector, retail
                                                        malls registered mixed performance as the better quality centers offering a mix of
                                                        entertainment, retail and F&B performed better, reflecting changing consumer tastes.
                                                        The hotel sector in DMA saw occupancy rates improve to 54% in the YT May 2019
                                                        versus YT May 2018. Average daily room rates and revenues per available room
                                                        however remained under pressure, with further declines registered over the period.

                                                        DMA - Prime Rental Clock

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Residential
                                                                                    Rental            Rents                                                                        Rental            Rents
                                                                                   Growth             Falling                      Retail                                         Growth             Falling
                                                                                   Slowing                                                                                        Slowing
                                                                                                                                    Residential
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Retail
                                                                                  Rental              Rents                                                                       Rental             Rents
                                                                                 Growth               Bottoming                                                                 Growth              Bottoming
                                                                                                                                  Office
                                                                            Accelerating               Out                                                                  Accelerating              Out                       Office
                                                                                                                               Hotel*
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Hotel*

                                                                                          H1 2018                                                                                         H1 2019

                                                                                                * Hotel clock reflects the movement of RevPAR (Revenue per available room: ADR * occupancy rate)
                                                        Note: The property clock is a graphical tool developed by JLL to illustrate where a market sits within its individual rental cycle. These positions are not necessarily representative of
                                                        investment or development market prospects. It is important to recognize that markets move at different speeds depending on their maturity, size and economic conditions. Markets
                                                                       will not always move in a clockwise direction, they might move backwards or remain at the same point in their cycle for extended periods. Source: JLL
22                                                                                                             The KSA Real Estate Market Mid-Year Review 2019     The KSA Real Estate Market Mid-Year Review 2019                                                                                                                  23

 Office                                                                                                                                                            Residential

 Supply                                                                                                                                                            Supply
 The first half of 2019 saw an additional 19,450 sq m GLA                             1000                                                    26                   The first half of 2019 witnessed a slowdown in the                             400
                                                                                                                                     43
 of office space enter the market, bringing the total office                                                                                                       number of units completed, as only 100 units were                                                                                   6        6

 inventory in DMA to approximately 890,000 sq m GLA                                                                                                                handed over in the city of Khobar. Projects delivered
 as of H1 2019. Among the deliveries were the Al Juaib                                                                                                             include Al Fahad Towers, Al Khobar Garden Phase 2, Al
 Administrative building on Dhahran-Jubail Highway, as                                 750                                                                         Khobar Views, and Shrafiya Towers. This brings the total                       300
 well as Al Khafra Tower located in the central area on        GLA (sq m thousands)                                                                                residential supply to approximately 351,000 units by the

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Units (thousand)
 King Fahd Highway in Dammam.                                                                                                                                      end of H1 2019.
                                                                                       500                                                                                                                                                        200
 An additional 43,000 sq m GLA is expected to be delivery                                                                                                          H2 2019 is expected to witness the delivery of an
 over the remainder of the year, however we expect                                                                                                                 additional 6,000 units. However, given materialisation
 delays in the handover of some projects given subdued                                                                                                             rates to date, we expect some delays in the delivery
 market conditions. Expected completions include Ta’ziz                                250                                                                         of these projects. Among the projects expected in the                          100
 Tower, Al Hajiri Tower, Al Khalidiya Tower and Biato                                         635        703       819      871      890      933       959        second half of 2019 are Al Khobar Marina (1,400 units),                                     331     338           345   351        351      357         363
 Project. 2020 is expected to witness the handover of an                                                                                                           Laguna project Phase 1 (32 residential villas), and Al
 additional 26,000 sq m of office space, including Abdul                                                                                                           Morouj residential project (37 villas). Construction
                                                                                        0                                                                                                                                                            0
 Hadi Al Hukait project located on the Corniche road.                                                                                                              activity is set to remain strong, with an additional
                                                                                              2015      2016      2017     2018    H1 2019   2020F     2021F                                                                                                 2015     2016       2017      2018     H1 2019   2020F      2021F
                                                                                                                                                                   6,000 units anticipated in 2020.

                                                                                                       Current Supply                        Future Supply                                                                                                            Current Supply                          Future Supply

                                                                                                                                                     Source: JLL                                                                                                                                                      Source: JLL

 Performance                                                                                                                                                       Performance
 The average rents in office spaces in DMA dropped 10%                                 Vacancy Rate                                                                Residential sale prices and rental rates continued to                          Residential rents and sale prices
 in H1 2019. However, Grade A spaces characterized by                                                                                                              register declines in H1 2019. Apartment and villa sale
 high-quality finishing with ease of access and ample                                                      30%                               30%                   prices dropped 4% and 5% respectively on a 12-month                            Apartments - Sale                         Rent
 amenities continue to perform better than Grade B                                                                                                                 basis in H1 2019. Meanwhile, apartment rents and villa
 spaces which recorded larger declines in average rents.                                                                                                           rents declined 5% and 1% over the same period
 Meanwhile, there was no real improvement in the rate of                                                                                                           (H1 2019 versus H1 2018).                                                             -3%                 -4%                    -5%                -5%
 office take-up during the first half of 2019 and as such,
 the vacancy rate remained stable at 30% over the same
                                                                                              H1 2018                         H1 2019                              Looking ahead, we expect rents and sale prices to                                 6 months                Y-o-Y                6 months             Y-o-Y
 period.                                                                                                                                                           continue their downward trajectory over the next
                                                                                                                                                     12 month
                                                                                                                                                                   12 months considering the additional supply expected
 With the delivery of over 60,000 sq m of office GLA over
                                                                                                                                                      outlook      to handover. In the long-run, initiatives launched by the                                            12 month                                     12 month
 the next two years, we expect rents to remain under                                                                                                               Ministry of Housing are likely to promote demand for                                                  outlook                                      outlook
 pressure. This is particularly true as the DMA continues                                                                                                          residential units. This will contribute to achieving the
 to rely on the hydrocarbon sector. However in the long                                Average Rents (SAR / sq m)                                                  target of raising home ownership rates to 70% by 2030.                         Villas - Sale                             Rent
 run, and on the back of initiatives and announcements
 aimed at diversifying the DMA’s economy, such as the
 King Salman Energy Park (SPARK), we expect corporate                                                                                                                                                                                                    -4%                 -5%                    -1%                -1%
 demand to pick up, reflecting positively on office rents.                                    997                Y-o-Y
                                                                                                                                  901                                                                                                                6 months                Y-o-Y                6 months             Y-o-Y
                                                                                                                 -10%
                                                                                             H1 2018                          H1 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        12 month                                     12 month
                                                                                                                                                     12 month
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         outlook                                      outlook
                                                                                                                                                      outlook

                                                                                                                                                     Source: JLL                                                                                                                            Source: Ministry of Justice (MoJ), JLL
24                                                                                                              The KSA Real Estate Market Mid-Year Review 2019               The KSA Real Estate Market Mid-Year Review 2019                                                                                                        25

 Retail                                                                                                                                                                       Hotel

 Supply                                                                                                                                                                       Supply
                                                                                                                                                                 0.30                                                                                                                                                       0.56
 The first half of 2019 witnessed the completion of a                              1.5                                                                                        No new hotel keys were delivered over the first half of                          10.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   0.80
 small number of retail projects, adding approximately                                                                                                                        the year in the DMA, keeping supply levels stable at
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          0.75
 20,000 sq m GLA to the supply pipeline. These projects                                                                                                                       7,800 keys as of H1 2019. Assuming construction activity
                                                                                                                                           0.12
 include Villaggio, Al Sadeen Commercial Center Phase 1,                                                                                                                      proceeds in a timely manner, the market is expected to
 and Al-Falak. These additions kept the total retail supply                                                                                                                   witness the delivery of an additional 750 keys in H2 2019.                       7.5
                                                                                   1.0
 in DMA at 1.1 million sq m at the end of H1 2019.            GLA (sq m million)                                                                                              This represents a decline from the previously estimated

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Keys (thousand)
                                                                                                                                                                              number of keys, indicating developers are delaying the
 An additional 120,000 sq m of retail GLA is scheduled                                                                                                                        handover of projects.                                                            5.0
 to handover in the remainder of the year. Expected
 completions include Al Nakheel Mall, Patio, Pavilion                                                                                                                         2020 and 2021 are expected to witness the delivery of
 Al Khobar, Matal Eatery Complex, Ajdan Walk and                                   0.5                                                                                        an additional 800 and 560 keys respectively. Upcoming
 Lyzawan Walk. While no new projects are scheduled for                                                                                                                        hotels include King Fahd International Airport Hotel                             2.5
 completion in 2020, we can expect some delays to the                                         0.93       0.97        1.0     1.1           1.1         1.2        1.2         (120 keys), Centro Al Khobar Hotel by Rotana (250 keys),                                 6         7        7      8            8     9         9
 projects currently under construction, thus adding to                                                                                                                        Swiss-Bel Hotel Khobar (99 keys), Dana Rayhaan by
 the future supply in 2020. The majority of the upcoming                                                                                                                      Rotana (285 keys), Hilton Garden Inn (159 keys),
                                                                                    0.0                                                                                                                                                                          0
 stock is situated within community malls.                                                                                                                                    Marriott Dammam (280 keys), Ascott Corniche Al Khobar
                                                                                              2015      2016       2017      2018        H1 2019      2020F     2021F                                                                                                 2015     2016     2017    2018    H1 2019   2020F    2021F
                                                                                                                                                                              (172 keys), and Hilton Al Khobar King Fahd Causeway
                                                                                                                                                                              (341 keys).
                                                                                                       Current Supply                                 Future Supply                                                                                                            Current Supply                     Future Supply

                                                                                                                                                              Source: JLL                                                                                                                                                 Source: JLL

 Performance                                                                                                                                                                  Performance
 DMA’s retail sector experienced further rental declines                           Vacancy Rate                                                                               The hotel market in DMA saw an improvement in                                     Occupancy
 across the regional and community centers. Meanwhile,                                                                                                                        occupancy rates during the first half of the year,
 rents in super regional malls saw an increase of 8% in H1                                                      6%                                   7%                       registering 54% in the YT May 2019 compared to 52% in                                                   52%                         54%
 2019 versus H1 2018, as mall owners were able to offer                                                                                                                       the YT May 2018. Meanwhile, average daily room rates
 differentiated retail concepts and experiences to attract                                                                                                                    (ADR’s) and revenues per available rooms (RevPar’s)
 and retain tenants. Overall vacancy rates continued to                                                                                                                       continued to decline to register USD 117 (SAR 439) and
 increase over the past 12 months.                                                             H1 2018                         H1 2019                                        USD 64 (SAR 240) respectively over the same period.                                      YT May                        YT May
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2018                          2019
 While we expect further declines in rental rates on the                                                                                                      12 month        The market witnessed an uptick in occupancy rates on                                                                                        12 month
 back of additional supply, we remain positive in our                                                                                                          outlook        the back of initiatives and events to promote the Eastern                                                                                    outlook
 long-term view for DMA’s retail market. The sector is set                                                                                                                    Region’s tourism and entertainment sector. These events                                                  Y-o-Y
 to benefit from the government initiatives to boost the                                                                                                                      aim to transform the Kingdom into one of the most                                                       200 bp
 population’s spending, particularly on entertainment.                             Change in Average Rents                                                                    important tourist destinations in the world, while also
                                                                                                                                                                              enhancing the quality of life of the local population in                          ADR (USD)
                                                                                   Super Regional                Regional                         Community                   line with Vision 2030. Looking ahead, this is expected to
                                                                                                                                                                              reflect positively on the number of tourists arriving to the
                                                                                         8%          8%              0%            -1%               0%          -3%          Kingdom in general, and the DMA specifically, which is
                                                                                    6 months         Y-o-Y        6 months         Y-o-Y           6 months      Y-o-Y        expected to boost hotel performance levels.                                              142             Y-o-Y
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       117
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       -18%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      YT May                         YT May
                                                                                                      12 month                      12 month                       12 month                                                                                            2018                           2019
                                                                                                       outlook                       outlook                        outlook                                                                                                                                               12 month
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           outlook

                                                                                                                                                              Source: JLL                                                                                                                                          Source: STR Global
26                                                                                          The KSA Real Estate Market Mid-Year Review 2019       The KSA Real Estate Market Mid-Year Review 2019                                                                                                                     27

 Property Clock                                                                                                                                   Definitions

                                                                12 O’clock                                                                        Office                                               Residential                                             Performance. Weighted average rents (WAR) are
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               based on lease transactions from the JLL Retail
                                                                                                                                                  Supply. The current supply of completed office       Supply. The current supply of completed                 team. It reflects the rents across a basket of super
                                                  12 o’clock indicates a turning point towards                                                                                                                                                                 regional, regional, and community retail centres.
                                                                                                                                                  GLA is based on a comprehensive list of office       residential buildings is based on the National
                                                  a market consolidation / slowdown. At this                                                                                                                                                                   Retail performance in Makkah also includes the
                                                                                                                                                  buildings within certain areas in Jeddah that have   Housing Census (2010) and reflects residential
                                                   position, the market has no further rental                                                     been handed over for immediate occupation.           units that have been handed over for immediate          Markazia retail centers.
                                                   growth potential left in the current cycle,                                                    This includes Grade A and B stand-alone office       occupation.
                                                   with the next move likely to be downward.                                                      buildings and office space within mixed-use                                                                  WAR represents the top open market net rent
                                                                                                                                                  buildings. Our project list excludes owner-          Our definition of residential units includes            expected for a standard line shop of 100 sq m in
                                                                                                                                                  occupied and government office buildings.            apartments, villas, and townhouses.                     a basket of centres. Given the variation in rentals,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               we quote percentage change for retail rents rather
                                                                                                                                                  •    The certain areas within Riyadh we cover        The future supply of residential units is updated       than actual figures.
                                                                                                                                                       include: Commercial Business District           on a quarterly basis and is based on primary
                                                                                                                                                       (CBD), North and East Ring Roads, Khurais,      research (physical inspections) and secondary           Vacancy rate is based on estimates from the JLL
                                                                                                                                                       Mazer, and Sitteen Streets. Our future supply   research (discussions with developers) of major         Retail team. It reflects the weighted average rate
                   9 O’clock                                                                                     3 O’clock                             of office GLA in Riyadh excludes the space      projects and stand-alone developments.                  across a basket of super regional, regional, and
                                                                                                                                                       within the King Abduallah Financial District                                                            community centres.
     9 o’clock indicates the market has reached                                                   3 o’clock indicates the market has reached           (KAFD).                                         The future supply of residential units is reflective
      the rental growth peak. While rents may                                                     its point of fastest decline. While rents may   •    The certain areas within Jeddah we cover        of projects actively under construction. It             Hotels
     continue to increase over coming quarters                                                       continue to decline for some time, the            include: Prince Sultan, Tahlia, Al-Malek,       excludes projects that have been announced,
     the market is heading towards a period of                                                     rate of decrease is expected to slow as the         Ibrahim Al Jaffali, Amanah Street, Madinah,     where ground works have not started.                    Supply. The current supply of hotel rooms is
                                                                                                                                                       King Abdullah and Rawdah Streets.                                                                       based on data from the Saudi Commission for
                 rental stabilisation.                                                              market moves towards a period of rental
                                                                                                                                                  •    The certain areas within Makkah we cover        Performance. Data on residential performance            Tourism and Antiquities (SCTA). It reflects hotel
                                                                                                                   stabilisation.                      include: Al Nuzha Road, Old Makkah-Jeddah       is based on the prices and rents of a basket of         rooms that have been handed over for immediate
                                                                                                                                                       Road, Umm Alqura Street, Al Diyafa Street,      selected residential units within selected areas.       occupation. Our project list includes 3, 4, and
                                                                                                                                                       and the 3rd and 4th Ring Roads.                 Our analysis is complemented with data from the         5-star hotels and serviced apartments.
                                                                                                                                                  •    The certain areas within DMA we cover           Ministry of Justice (MoJ) on transactions.
                                                                                                                                                       include: Dammam – Al Khobar Highway,                                                                    The future supply of hotel rooms is updated on a
                                                                                                                                                       Prince Sultan Street, and Prince Turki Road.
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Retail                                                  quarterly basis and is based on primary research
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               (physical inspections) and secondary research
                                                                                                                                                  The future supply of office GLA is updated on a
                                                                 6 O’clock                                                                        quarterly basis and is based on primary research
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Supply. The classification of retail centers is         (discussions with developers).
                                                                                                                                                                                                       based on the Urban Land Institute (ULI) definition
                                                                                                                                                  (physical inspections) and secondary research                                                                The future supply of hotel rooms is reflective of
                                                   6 o’clock indicates a turning point towards                                                                                                         and based on their Gross Leasable Area (GLA):
                                                                                                                                                  (discussions with developers).                                                                               projects actively under construction. It excludes
                                                    rental growth. At this position, we believe                                                                                                                                                                projects that have been announced, where
                                                                                                                                                                                                       •     Super Regional Malls have a GLA of
                                                  the market has reached its lowest point and                                                     The future supply of office GLA is reflective of
                                                                                                                                                                                                             above 90,000 sq m                                 ground works have not started.
                                                    the next movement in rents is likely to be                                                    projects actively under construction. It excludes
                                                                                                                                                                                                       •     Regional Malls have a GLA of
                                                                    upwards.                                                                      projects that have been announced, where                                                                     Performance. STR performance data is based on
                                                                                                                                                                                                             30,000 - 90,000 sq m
                                                                                                                                                  ground works have not started.                                                                               a monthly survey conducted by STR Global on a
                                                                                                                                                                                                       •     Community Malls have a GLA of
                                                                                                                                                                                                             10,000 - 30,000 sq m                              sample of international standard midscale and
                                                                                                                                                  Performance. The weighted average rent (WAR)                                                                 upscale hotels. Average Daily Rates (ADR) and
                                                                                                                                                                                                       •     Neighbourhood Malls have a GLA of
                                                                                                                                                  is based on lease transactions from the JLL                                                                  Revenue Per Available Room (Rev Par) are the key
                                                                                                                                                                                                             3,000 - 10,000 sq m
                                                                                                                                                  Offices and Business Space team. It reflects the                                                             performance metrics.
                                                                                                                                                                                                       •     Convenience Malls have a GLA of
                                                                                                                                                  average rates across a basket of Grade A and B
                                                                                                                                                                                                             less than 3,000 sq m
                                                                                                                                                  buildings.
                                                                                                                                                                                                       The current supply of completed retail GLA is
                                                                                                                                                  Grade A buildings are defined as high quality
                                                                                                                                                                                                       based on a comprehensive list of mall-based

Definitions
                                                                                                                                                  office spaces, well located, with good access to
                                                                                                                                                                                                       retail in each of the 4 cities, that have been
                                                                                                                                                  infrastructure and amenities including F&B and
                                                                                                                                                                                                       handed over for immediate occupation. Our
                                                                                                                                                  retail.
                                                                                                                                                                                                       project list excludes street retail and retail within
                                                                                                                                                                                                       mixed-use buildings.
                                                                                                                                                  The WAR of Grade A buildings represents the top
                                                                                                                                                  open-market, net rent (exclusive of service charge
                                                                                                                                                                                                       The future supply of retail GLA is updated on a
                                                                                                                                                  and incentives) for a new lease that could be
                                                                                                                                                                                                       quarterly basis and is based on primary research
                                                                                                                                                  expected for a notional office unit.
                                                                                                                                                                                                       (physical inspections) and secondary research
                                                                                                                                                                                                       (discussions with developers).
                                                                                                                                                  Vacancy rate is based on estimates from the
                                                                                                                                                  JLL Offices and Business Space team. It reflects
                                                                                                                                                                                                       The future supply of retail GLA is reflective of
                                                                                                                                                  the weighted average rate across a basket of
                                                                                                                                                                                                       projects actively under construction. It excludes
                                                                                                                                                  buildings.
                                                                                                                                                                                                       projects that have been announced, where
                                                                                                                                                                                                       ground works have not started.
Jeddah                                                           Riyadh                                                           Al Khobar
Jameel Square                                                    South Tower, 17th Floor                                          Level 21, Al Khobar Gate Tower
Level 2, Suite 209                                               Tawuniya Towers                                                  King Fahed Road
Tahliya & Andalus Streets Junction                               King Fahd Road                                                   Al Khobar 31952
PO Box 2091                                                      PO Box 13547                                                     PO Box 32348
Jeddah 8909 – 23326                                              Riyadh 11414                                                     Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia                                                     Saudi Arabia                                                     Tel: +966 13 330 8401
Tel: +966 12 660 2555                                            Tel: +966 11 2180 303                                            Tel: +966 13 330 8402
Fax: +966 12 669 4030                                            Fax: +966 11 2180 308                                            Tel: +966 13 330 8403

For questions and inquiries about the KSA real estate market, please contact:

Craig Plumb                                                      Dana Salbak
Head of Research, MENA                                           Research Associate, MENA
craig.plumb@eu.jll.com                                           dana.salbak@eu.jll.com

Abdullah Alshabanat                                              Shahd AlMehdar
Research Manager, Riyadh                                         Senior Research Analyst, Jeddah
Abdullah.alshabanat@eu.jll.com                                   shahd.almehdar@eu.jll.com

With MEA offices in:

Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Cairo,
Johannesburg and Casablanca
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2019. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and does not necessarily purport to be a complete analysis of the topics
discussed, which are inherently unpredictable. It has been based on sources we believe to be reliable, but we have not independently verified those sources and we do not guarantee that the
information in the report is accurate or complete. Any views expressed in the report reflect our judgment at this date and are subject to change without notice. Statements that are forward-
looking involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause future realities to be materially different from those implied by such forward-looking statements. Advice we give to
clients in particular situations may differ from the views expressed in this report. No investment or other business decisions should be made based solely on the views expressed in this report.
You can also read