Industrial The Canadian industrial market expected to exhibit strong demand moving into the end of 2018 - JLL

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Industrial The Canadian industrial market expected to exhibit strong demand moving into the end of 2018 - JLL
Industrial

Canada | Q3 2018

The Canadian industrial
market expected to exhibit
strong demand moving
into the end of 2018
JLL Research
Industrial The Canadian industrial market expected to exhibit strong demand moving into the end of 2018 - JLL
Overview
 2                                                                                                    Industrial Outlook | Canada | Q3 2018

 JLL’s logistics and industrial services

 From manufacturing plants to around-the-clock                        Our experts know all of the issues that impact your
 distribution centers, industrial real estate is the backbone         industrial real estate decisions and apply proven best
 of the global economy. Today’s financial and competitive             practices to address such challenges as skyrocketing
 pressures demand that your industrial property—whether               energy, transportation, and labor costs; heightened
 leased or owned—delivers maximum flexibility and                     security needs; tough new environmental requirements;
 efficiency. Our logistics and industrial professionals               and profound changes in global supply chains. Because of
 understand the current business environment and offer                our depth of in-house talent, we can quickly assemble just
 innovative, profitable strategies for supply chain                   the right team for your particular need. Regardless of the
 optimization, site selection, sales, leasing, acquisition,           size and scope of the assignment, you will have a single
 financing, construction, project management, and                     point of contact who manages all service delivery and is
 property and facility management of industrial properties            responsible for producing the measurable results that are
 and portfolios.                                                      agreed to up front.
     Canada industrial property clock                                                                                                   3
     Local Markets
             Metro Vancouver                                                                                                            5
             Calgary & Area                                                                                                             6
             Greater Edmonton Area                                                                                                      7
             Metro Winnipeg                                                                                                             8
             Greater Ottawa Area                                                                                                        9
             Greater Toronto Area                                                                                                     10
             Greater Montréal Area
     About JLL                                                                                                                        11

 More than 300+ JLL professionals cover the top 50 industrial markets in the United States and 700 more are at work in major
 industrial markets around the globe.

 In 2016, JLL logistics and industrial services completed more than 3,536 transactions comprising over 251 million square feet of
 space at a value of more than $9.0 billion.
Industrial The Canadian industrial market expected to exhibit strong demand moving into the end of 2018 - JLL
3                                                                                Industrial Outlook | Canada | Q3 2018

    Canada industrial property clock

    The JLL industrial property clock illustrates where each
    market sits within its real estate cycle. Markets generally
    move clockwise around the dial, with those markets on the
    left side generally facing more landlord-favorable
    environments, whereas those on the right experience
    generally tenant-favorable conditions.

        Toronto

        Canada                             Peaking market          Falling market

Vancouver

 Calgary
  Montréal

                                            Rising market         Bottoming market

        Edmonton

    Source: JLL Research
Industrial The Canadian industrial market expected to exhibit strong demand moving into the end of 2018 - JLL
Canada
local markets

                4
Industrial The Canadian industrial market expected to exhibit strong demand moving into the end of 2018 - JLL
Metro Vancouver

If it hasn’t already, e-commerce is becoming ingrained in
Metro Vancouver’s industrial market
  • After six consecutive quarters of the vacancy rate trending downward, there                                                    Fundamentals                     Forecast
    was some relief in Q3 2018: the vacancy rate increased 30 basis points                                                         YTD net absorption        1,478,635 s.f. ▲
    quarter-over-quarter, behind relatively little positive net absorption and a                                                   QTR net absorption          113,359 s.f. ▲
    wave of new supply added to the market.
                                                                                                                                   Under construction        4,758,352 s.f. ▲
  • One of the largest leases ever signed in Metro Vancouver took place this
    quarter - Amazon leased 450,000 square feet at GWL’s Delta iPort on                                                            Total vacancy                     2.1% ▼
    Tsawwassen First Nation’s land.                                                                                                Average asking rent (Net) $10.97 p.s.f. ▲
                                                                                                                                   Tenant improvements             Stable ▶
Last mile delivery is impacting all cities across North America. It is that final push
for e-commerce companies to get their product into the hands of their consumer,                                                    Supply and demand (s.f.)                      Net absorption
                                                                                                                                                                                 Deliveries
usually to individual houses. How do companies manage this tricky step? There                                                      2,000,000
are numerous things to consider; from how to effectively delivery products to
multiple end locations, to understanding which routes to take to avoid traffic
congestion. Most importantly, your product needs to be near your customers.                                                        1,000,000
This is a part of the reason why warehouse space in the urban core of Vancouver
is so much more expensive than other industrial submarkets in Metro Vancouver
(this quarter for context, the average asking net rent in Vancouver was $16.21 per                                                           0
square foot, while in Delta for example, it was only $8.94 per square foot!).                                                                       Q2   Q3   Q4   Q1   Q2   Q3
                                                                                                                                                   2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018
Despite the higher cost of locating closer to the population nodes, e-commerce
tenants are realizing the benefits of a centralized location. Fresh Prep, a company                                                 Total vacancy
that provides premade meals, leased 25,387 square feet of warehouse space at
188 Victoria Drive this quarter. Since Vancouver has the largest population in                                                        2.3%       2.2%     2.1%      2.0%                 2.1%
                                                                                                                                                                               1.9%
Metro Vancouver, it makes sense for the company to take space in the submarket
(versus a submarket like Delta where asking rates are less) and cut down on their
last mile delivery costs. This example has one clear point: warehouse space near
population centers will feel the greatest pressure on their rates moving forward.
Why? Because despite the high lease rates, companies that deal with last mile
delivery will continue to demand space like this.                                                                                   Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018

Outlook
There is another side to the point above however… and it is that retailers with last                                               Average asking rents ($/s.f.)                    Net Rent
                                                                                                                                                                                    Additional
mile delivery services and e-commerce companies are - and will do so moving
                                                                                                                                   $12.00
forward - taking large blocks of warehouse space that are somewhat removed
from population centers like Vancouver. Why? There are relatively few large                                                         $9.00
blocks of space in Vancouver or in close proximity. Therefore, companies are                                                        $6.00
simply forced to go where they can find space in this size range. With a tight                                                      $3.00
market, we will continue to see demand for the traditional, big box industrial
                                                                                                                                    $0.00
space, but we will also see increased interest for last mile needs.
                                                                                                                                                  Q2     Q3       Q4      Q1       Q2       Q3
For more information, contact: Ben Wedge | ben.wedge@am.jll.com                                                                                  2017   2017     2017    2018     2018     2018

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
Industrial The Canadian industrial market expected to exhibit strong demand moving into the end of 2018 - JLL
Calgary & Area

Vacancy rates continue to fall as industrial market
activity remains healthy
  • Vacancy rates continue to decrease as the industrial market sees a                                                             Fundamentals                     Forecast
    consistent demand for product in all classes.                                                                                  YTD net absorption        2,090,121 s.f. ▲
  • Net absorption continues to remain positive, totaling 569,814 square                                                           QTR net absorption          569,814 s.f. ▲
    feet this quarter - this result was driven by multiple larger deals                                                            Under construction        3,920,003 s.f. ▲
    completed last quarter.                                                                                                        Total vacancy                     5.7% ▼
  • Total new construction continue to remain low but there will be                                                                Average asking rent (Net)   $9.38 p.s.f. ▲
    multiple larger blocks of space delivered in Q4 2018 and Q1 2019.
                                                                                                                                   Tenant improvements             Stable ▶
Net Absorption was positive in Q3 2018. This result was driven both by a decrease in
new space driving tenants to existing properties and larger lease deals being signed.                                              Supply and Demand (s.f.)                     Net absorption
                                                                                                                                                                                Deliveries
Uni-select and MABE signed deals over 100,000 square feet, working with Oxford                                                    1,000,000
Properties and QuadReal to secure distribution space in the Northeast and Southeast
quadrants. The Q3 2018 trend in leasing was that there were several multiple large-
scale deals signed, showing a higher level of activity than the first two quarters of                                               500,000
2018. This increase in activity signals an increase in the confidence that tenants have
in the Greater Calgary and Area (GC&A) industrial market.
                                                                                                                                            0
The development pipeline continues to remain filled, with multi-tenant distribution                                                                Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
                                                                                                                                                  2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018
space being the product of choice for many developers. Hopewell Development was
active last quarter with both Crosspointe Industrial Park and South Calgary
Distribution Center breaking ground. The two buildings will respectively bring 529,490
and 498,617 square feet of space to the Northeast and Southeast submarkets. Both                                                    Total Vacancy
developments are ahead of schedule and delivery is anticipated for Q2 2019.                                                         7.8%        7.1%   6.8%    6.7%     6.0%     5.8%     5.7%
Although there is demand for new large distribution space built on spec, smaller scale
industrial condominiums are still a commodity through Calgary and Area. Builders
such as the Beedie Group and SBL Contractors continue to opt for smaller
developments with bay sizes ranging from 2,000 to 10,000 square feet, and the market
has responded with consistent demand. This is highlighted by SBL contractors selling                                                 Q1          Q2     Q3      Q4       Q1       Q2       Q3
                                                                                                                                    2017        2017   2017    2017     2018     2018     2018
out of the first phase of their Glacier Village project and officially breaking ground on
Glacier Village Phase Two. Beedie Group’s Evolve at District finished construction,
delivering 128,300 square feet of A class condominium space to the Northeast                                                       Average Asking Rents ($/s.f.)                   Asking Rate
Submarket, with five of thirteen units currently presold.                                                                                                                          TMI
                                                                                                                                   $10.00
Outlook                                                                                                                             $8.00
The industrial market was active this quarter, and we at JLL anticipate this activity to                                            $6.00
continue into Q4 2018. With a mix of users looking to occupy space, ranging from                                                    $4.00
standalone buildings to multi-tenant distribution space, increased deliveries in Q4                                                 $2.00
2018 and 2019 will be met with a positive tenant response.                                                                          $0.00
                                                                                                                                                 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
                                                                                                                                                2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018
For more information, contact: Bryon Leece | bryon.leece@am.jll.com
© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
Industrial The Canadian industrial market expected to exhibit strong demand moving into the end of 2018 - JLL
Greater
Q3 2017
                                                                                                   Edmonton Area
Industrial Insight

Industrial leasing maintains momentum despite
macroeconomic risks
                                                                                                                                   Fundamentals                     Forecast
  • Surrounding Edmonton area leasing activity increased despite volatility                                                        YTD net absorption          806,468 s.f. ▲
    in energy and manufacturing industries.                                                                                        QTR net absorption          486,084 s.f. ▲
  • Average asking net rents decreased to $9.59 per square foot in Q3 2018
                                                                                                                                   Under construction        1,879,939 s.f. ▲
    compared to $9.70 per square foot in Q2 2018.
                                                                                                                                   Total vacancy                    5.1 % ▼
  • Demand is increasing as total vacancy in the Greater Edmonton Area
    decreased by 40 basis points from 5.5 percent to 5.1 percent.                                                                  Average asking rent (Net)   $9.59 p.s.f. ▶
                                                                                                                                   Tenant improvements             Steady ▶
Despite interprovincial disputes and growing international trade tension, the                                                      Supply and demand (s.f.)                      Net absorption
Greater Edmonton Area (GEA) registered 486,084 square feet of positive net                                                                                                       Deliveries
                                                                                                                                    5,000,000
absorption in Q3. Beyond the interim, uncertainty remains in Alberta’s hydrocarbon
sector. The Canadian Federal Court of Appeals’ unanimously decided to halt the                                                      3,000,000
Trans Mountain pipeline expansion on grounds that the NEB failed to adequately
consult First Nations and study increased tanker traffic. In natural gas markets,                                                   1,000,000
TransCanada is gearing up to combine their existing NOVA Gas Transmission
System with the planned Coastal GasLink Pipeline. Beginning in the Montney                                                         -1,000,000
formation on the Alberta-B.C. border, Coastal GasLink will traverse down to LNG                                                                      2015        2016          2017       2018
Canada’s proposed $40 billion dollar liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal in Kitimat,
BC. Upon completion, the terminal will service international markets by exporting
an estimated 26 million metric tons of LNG per year.                                                                                Total vacancy

In Alberta’s Industrial Heartland(AIH), construction on Inter Pipeline’s $3.5 billion
petrochemical facility is well underway. As a recipient of the province’s                                                                                               6.2%
                                                                                                                                                        5.0%                            5.1%
Petrochemicals Diversification Program in 2016, the project was awarded $200                                                            4.1%
million in royalty credits. The facility is expected to convert propane into 525,000
tons of polypropylene per year. Given the success of the program’s first iteration, a
second round of applications are due this October. For oil and gas companies,
international market access is an on-going concern due to national infrastructure                                                       2015            2016            2017            2018
project setbacks and extended lead times. For this reason, it is expected that land
with access to rail will continue to fetch a premium; especially in the AIH.
                                                                                                                                   Average asking rents ($/s.f.)                      Net Rent
                                                                                                                                                                                      Additional
Outlook                                                                                                                            $12.00
On-going trade disputes surrounding NAFTA’s future had spurred uncertainty
throughout the quarter. While the new USMCA improved on specific industry issues                                                     $9.00
like the tariff structure on diluent used in oil pipelines; other disputes like steel                                                $6.00
export tariffs remain unresolved. As long as the USMCA remains unratified, the
Industrial sector in the GEA is expected to remain sensitive to elevated levels of                                                   $3.00
macroeconomic risk.                                                                                                                  $0.00
For more information, contact: Daniel Toumine | daniel.toumine@am.jll.com                                                                        2015          2016         2017         2018

© 2017 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
Industrial The Canadian industrial market expected to exhibit strong demand moving into the end of 2018 - JLL
Metro Winnipeg

Construction activity begins to rise to meet growing
demand for high quality industrial space
  • Land sale activity in the Rural Municipalities directly surrounding                                                            Fundamentals                                   Forecast
    Winnipeg has picked up dramatically and new development activity is                                                            YTD net absorption                        347,602 s.f. ▲
    expected to pick up markedly in the coming year.                                                                               QTR net absorption                       -233,752 s.f. ▼
  • Winnipeg’s economy relies heavily on trade with the United States. The                                                         Under construction                        263,360 s.f. ▼
    coming months will determine the effects of the new USMCA trade                                                                Total vacancy                                   3.3% ▲
    agreement on the market’s manufacturing and transportation sectors.                                                            Average asking rent (Net)                 $8.31 p.s.f. ▲
                                                                                                                                   Tenant improvements                           Stable ▶
The vacancy rate rose to 3.3 percent in Q3 2018 up from 3.0 percent last quarter,
which was a historical low for the Winnipeg industrial market. Vacancy has now                                                     Supply and demand (s.f.)                      Net absorption
run below 5.0 percent for the past nine quarters indicating continued strong                                                        500,000
                                                                                                                                                                                 Deliveries
demand with limited new supply. Much of the space that is currently available
tends to be older, less desirable product, with lower ceiling height and poor
loading.                                                                                                                                   0

There is also currently a significant amount of tenant activity looking for new
generation industrial space with requirements ranging from 20,000 to 100,000                                                       -500,000
square feet. Tenant demand is being driven by a diverse set of industries                                                                         Q2   Q3   Q4   Q1   Q2   Q3
including distribution and manufacturing, with the cannabis industry playing a                                                                   2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018
role also in filling some of the more functionally obsolete assets in the market.
                                                                                                                                    Total vacancy
Developers have responded to this demand for industrial product by increasing
construction activity. There is currently 263,000 square feet of industrial space                                                     4.4%      4.1%      3.8%
under construction, much of it as spec development which has traditionally been                                                                                     3.3%        3.0%     3.3%
rare for the Winnipeg market but speaks to the current level of demand. New
construction has been primarily located in the northwest, within CentrePort
Canada. Over 1,200 acres have been sold over the past year to developers
planning to bring additional serviced land to the market within Canada’s first
inland Foreign Trade Zone.                                                                                                          Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018

As higher quality industrial space came to the market, average asking net rents
increased 4.1 percent quarter-over-quarter to $8.31 per square foot. Average                                                       Average asking rents ($/s.f.)                    Net Rent
                                                                                                                                                                                    Additional
asking net rents have now risen by 19.7 percent over the past five years.
                                                                                                                                   $9.00
Outlook                                                                                                                            $6.00
We expect demand for quality industrial space to continue to run at a high level,
keeping the vacancy rate below 4.0 percent, despite the increased supply. As                                                       $3.00
such, construction activity will continue to rise to meet this demand, further
driving average asking net rents as new product comes to the market.                                                               $0.00
                                                                                                                                                Q2      Q3       Q4       Q1       Q2       Q3
For more information, contact: Ben Wedge | ben.wedge@am.jll.com                                                                                2017    2017     2017     2018     2018     2018

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
Industrial The Canadian industrial market expected to exhibit strong demand moving into the end of 2018 - JLL
Greater Ottawa
                                                                                                            Area
Don’t look now, but the Boundary Road industrial area
could be the place to be
  • The largest development in the Greater Ottawa Area began construction                                                          Fundamentals                                   Forecast
    this quarter: the 1.02 million square foot distribution centre for Amazon                                                      YTD net absorption                        502,382 s.f. ▲
    in the Boundary Road industrial area.                                                                                          QTR net absorption                         13,889 s.f. ▲
  • Demand from e-commerce and courier related companies is driving                                                                Under construction                        100,000 s.f. ▲
    activity; Purolator, for example, leased 32,000 square feet at 2370                                                            Total vacancy                                  3.2 % ▼
    Walkley Road.                                                                                                                  Average asking rent (Net)                $10.58 p.s.f. ▲
                                                                                                                                   Tenant improvements                           Stable ▶
The talk of the Ottawa industrial market recently has centred around the new
distribution centre being built in the Boundary Road industrial area, and                                                          Supply and demand (s.f.)                      Net absorption
rightfully so – it is a big development, and it could impact the whole market in                                                    600,000
                                                                                                                                                                                 Deliveries
a number of ways. Historically, the most active submarket has been the East
End but now that a 1.02 million square feet distribution centre is cemented at                                                      400,000
5371 Boundary Road, we at JLL think the surrounding area could experience                                                           200,000
more activity on the construction and leasing front.
                                                                                                                                            0

The new distribution centre is not the only topic of discussion, however; there                                                    -200,000
is also the vacancy rate. Behind a sizeable quarter of positive net absorption                                                                    Q2   Q3   Q4   Q1   Q2   Q3
in Q2, the vacancy rate decreased 60 basis points to 3.2 percent, an all time                                                                    2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018
low. Tenants looking for available space greater than 50,000 square feet are
left with only one option in existing inventory.                                                                                    Total vacancy

Despite a low vacancy rate, businesses are still finding space and have a                                                             4.1%      4.0%      4.0%      3.8%
number of options under 50,000 square feet to choose from; Pneus Lavoie                                                                                                        3.2%      3.2%
leased 38,000 square feet at 101 Innes Parkway, while 21,000 square feet was
leased at 3020 Hawthorne, and another 21,000 square feet was leased at 1475
Star Top Road.

On the sales front, the largest of the quarter was a local investment group’s -                                                     Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018
Inside Edge - purchase of 302 Legget Drive, Kanata. The property was fully
occupied at time of sale and sold for $11.6 million, with a cap rate of 6.1
percent. Moving forward, cap rates in the industrial market should further                                                         Average asking rents ($/s.f.)                    Net Rent
                                                                                                                                                                                    Additional
compress as both private and institutional investors hunt for product in the                                                       $12.00
city.
                                                                                                                                    $9.00

Outlook                                                                                                                             $6.00
The outlook that could impact the market centers around the new                                                                     $3.00
distribution center: will it mean more activity for the surrounding Boundary                                                        $0.00
Road industrial area? We anticipate that it will.                                                                                                Q2      Q3       Q4      Q1       Q2       Q3
For more information, contact: Ben Wedge | ben.wedge@am.jll.com                                                                                 2017    2017     2017    2018     2018     2018

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
Industrial The Canadian industrial market expected to exhibit strong demand moving into the end of 2018 - JLL
Greater Toronto
                                                                                                             Area
New quarter, similar story: strong demand and lack of
availabilities continue to drive rents higher
   • The vacancy rate ended the quarter at 2.0 percent, a 10-basis point                                                           Fundamentals                                    Forecast
     decrease quarter-over-quarter (QoQ); meaning tenants in the market
                                                                                                                                   YTD net absorption                       8,063,970 s.f ▲
     continue to have few options when looking for space.
                                                                                                                                   QTR net absorption                       1,366,352s.f. ▲
   • Strong net absorption and a lack of vacant new supply continue to shape a
     landlord favoured market.                                                                                                     Under construction                       6,961,764 s.f ▲
                                                                                                                                   Total vacancy                                   2.0% ▶
The summer months did not slow down the activity that the Greater Toronto Area (GTA)                                               Average asking rent                        $6.90 p.s.f. ▲
industrial market has been feeling throughout the year. Rather, Amazon announced a
                                                                                                                                   Tenant improvements                       Decreasing ▼
new 1 million square foot warehouse facility in Caledon and 1.3 million square feet of
positive net absorption. The active pace that the market has been on has impacted the
vacancy rate; although there was only a slight decrease QoQ, the vacancy rate has                                                   Supply and demand (s.f.)                       New Supply
                                                                                                                                                                                   Net absorption
decreased an astounding 100 basis points year-over-year.                                                                            13,000,000

                                                                                                                                    10,000,000
The low vacancy rate is because of the positive net absorption going on. So, who is
moving into space? The two largest contributors to net absorption this quarter were                                                  7,000,000
Wayfair, who moved into 2020 Logistics, Mississauga, and SDR Logistics, who moved
into 86 Pillsworth, Caledon. Significant lease deals this quarter (that will impact future                                           4,000,000
absorption) were Kimberly- Clark leased 500,000 square feet at 2994 Peddie Rd, Milton                                                1,000,000
and Ceva Logistics leased 324,000 at 6 Cleve Crt, Halton Hills.                                                                                      2014       2015      2016      2017      2018
                                                                                                                                                                                              YTD
The continued combination of a) strong demand, b) a low vacancy rate and c) strong
pre-leasing, mean that asking rents continue to increase! This time last year the average                                           Total vacancy
asking net rent was $6.18 per square foot… those days feel long gone however, with the
average asking net rent being $6.90 per square foot this quarter. With the new                                                     4.5%         4.0%
construction that is happening across the GTA, even higher rates – in the 7.25 to $8.25
per square foot for Class A mid to big box product - than this are being marketed.                                                 3.5%                   3.0%
                                                                                                                                                                               2.8%

                                                                                                                                   2.5%                             2.1%                 2.0%
Outlook
Don’t look to new construction to solve a lack of availability in the market. How come?
                                                                                                                                   1.5%
With landlords and developers seeing a strong appetite for Class A space regardless of                                                          2014      2015      2016       2017 2018 YTD
size and geography, over 60.0 percent of new construction is pre-leased...

In terms of overall market conditions, expect more of the same: tenants having less                                               Average asking rents ($/s.f.)
options for space, both with new and old product. And because of this, tenants                                                   $7.00
renewing their leases will get a bit of “sticker shock” when having to renew at market
rates.                                                                                                                           $6.50

                                                                                                                                 $6.00
A trend that we at JLL have seen in the past couple quarters has regarded companies
with multiple locations looking to consolidate. This is because tenants are realizing it                                         $5.50
will not cost them much more for a design build and consolidate into a new larger                                                $5.00
facility.                                                                                                                                    2014        2015       2016         2017    2018 YTD

For more information, contact: John Scioli | John.Scioili@am.jll.com

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
Greater
Q2 2017                                                                                             Montreal Area
Industrial Insight

Behind consecutive quarters of positive net absorption,
the vacancy rate continues to drop
  • There has been 4.2 million square feet of positive net absorption through                                                      Fundamentals                     Forecast
    the first three quarters of the year– substantially more than the first three                                                  YTD net absorption        4,267,131 s.f. ▲
    quarters of 2017, when there was only 1.7 million square feet.                                                                 QTR net absorption        1,985,383 s.f. ▲
  • Speculative construction accelerates as landlords expect demand to                                                             Under construction        1,428,159 s.f. ▼
    remain strong.                                                                                                                 Total vacancy                    3.7 % ▼
  • The legalization of Cannabis looks to transform the industrial market                                                          Average asking rent (Net)   $6.20 p.s.f. ▲
    with mounting interest in production facilities.
                                                                                                                                   Tenant improvements             Falling ▼

The vacancy rate has now decreased for three consecutive quarters, with a 60-basis                                                 Supply and demand (s.f.)                       Net absorption
point decrease quarter-over-quarter. Could it decrease even more in the coming                                                                                                    Deliveries
                                                                                                                                   6,000,000
quarters? If the rate of positive net absorption that has been experienced so far in
2018 continues through to the end of the year, it very well could. Now with a low                                                  4,000,000
vacancy rate, tenants looking to expand in the local economy are finding that they
have fewer options to choose from. Nevertheless, more options are on the way with                                                  2,000,000
new constructions across the market, particularly in the Laval and the West Island
submarkets. Even more space is expected to be added to the market with Sunlife’s                                                             0
addition of a 217,000-square foot facility in St-Laurent as well as Valdev’s 153,000-                                                              2014      2015       2016      2017     YTD
square foot industrial complex in Salaberry-de-Valleyfield.                                                                                                                                2018

With a 4.9 percent increase in the average asking net rent year-over-year, landlords
are experiencing a favourable climate. And with the vacancy rate sitting at 3.7                                                     Total vacancy
percent, we at JLL expect the rents to continue to increase over the coming
quarters.                                                                                                                             6.5%         6.1%        5.8%         5.4%
                                                                                                                                                                                          3.7%
As Canada prepares itself for an influx of cannabis growers, the Greater Montreal
Area (GMA) industrial market is expected to follow suit to some extent. Compared to
other provinces, Quebec looks to be the most restrictive in regulating the industry,
despite being a relatively small part of the market. But some inroads have been
                                                                                                                                      2014         2015          2016          2017      Q3 2018
made in this industry, like Santé Cannabis’ medicinal research center, which can
support both existing and prospective producers in need of in-door facilities.

Outlook                                                                                                                            Average asking rents ($/s.f.)                      Net Rent
In the GMA, there is a substantial amount of demand for industrial space, being                                                                                                       Additional
exhibited with several quarters of high positive net absorption. This has led to an                                                $10.00
extremely low vacancy rate for the market and signaled to developers that more                                                      $8.00
supply is warranted. Expect more of the same next quarter, as we don’t anticipate                                                   $6.00
demand to soften (therefore the vacancy rate should remain low, and the total                                                       $4.00
amount of space under construction, high).                                                                                          $2.00
                                                                                                                                    $0.00
For more information, contact: Eliezer Timolien| eliezer.timolien@am.jll.com                                                                     2014     2015      2016        2017 YTD 2018

© 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
About JLL
JLL (NYSE: JLL) is a leading professional services firm that specializes in real estate and investment management. A
Fortune 500 company, JLL helps real estate owners, occupiers and investors achieve their business ambitions. In 2017, JLL
had revenue of $7.9 billion; managed 4.6 billion square feet, or 423 million square meters; and completed investment
sales, acquisitions and finance transactions of approximately $170 billion. At the end of 2017, JLL had nearly 300 corporate
offices, operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce of 82,000. As of December 31, 2017, LaSalle had $58.1 billion
of real estate assets under management. JLL is the brand name, and a registered trademark, of Jones Lang LaSalle
Incorporated. For further information, visit www.jll.com.

About JLL Research
JLL’s research team delivers intelligence, analysis and insight through market-leading reports and services that illuminate
today’s commercial real estate dynamics and identify tomorrow’s challenges and opportunities. Our more than 400 global
research professionals track and analyze economic and property trends and forecast future conditions in over 60
countries, producing unrivalled local and global perspectives. Our research and expertise, fueled by real-time information
and innovative thinking around the world, creates a competitive advantage for our clients and drives successful strategies
and optimal real estate decisions.

Office locations:

TORONTO                                       TORONTO NORTH                                       MISSISSAUGA                                         MONTRÉAL
22 Adelaide St. W, Suite 2600                 235 Yorkland Blvd, Suite 500                        110 Matheson Blvd W, Suite 107                      1, Place Ville Marie, Suite 3838
Toronto, ON M5H 4E3                           Toronto, ON M2J 4Y8                                 Mississauga, ON L5R 4G7                             Montréal, QC H3B 4M6
Tel: +1 416 304 6000                          Tel: +1 647 728 0457                                Tel +1 905 502 6116                                 Tel +1 514 849 8849
Fax: +1 416 304 6001                          Fax: +1 416 642 0915                                Fax +1 905 502 5466                                 Fax +1 514 849 6919

OTTAWA                                        EDMONTON                                            CALGARY                                             VANCOUVER
275 Slater Street, Suite 1004                 10088 – 102 Avenue, Suite No. 2101                  301-8th Avenue SW, Suite 500                        355 Burrard Street, 14th Floor
Ottawa, ON K1P 5H9                            Edmonton, AB T5J 2Z1                                Calgary, AB T2P 1C5                                 Vancouver, BC V6C 2G6
Tel +1 613 656 0145                           Tel +1 780 328 2550                                 Tel +1 403 456 2104                                 Tel +1 604 998 6001
Fax +1 613 288 0109                           Fax +1 780 328 5486                                 Fax +1 587 880 9966                                 Fax +1 604 998 6018

For more information, please contact:
Thomas Forr                                                                                                        Ben Wedge
Research Manager                                                                                                   Senior Analyst
+1 416 304 6047                                                                                                    +1 604 998 6032
thomas.forr@am.jll.com                                                                                             ben.wedge@am.jll.com

www.jll.ca/research

©2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced by any means, whether graphically, electronically, mechanically or otherwise
howsoever, including without limitation photocopying and recording on magnetic tape, or included in any information store and/or retrieval system without prior written permission of
Jones Lang LaSalle. The information contained in this document has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. Jones Lang LaSalle or any of their affiliates accept no liability or
responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein and no reliance should be placed on the information contained in this document.
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