Market analysis of heavy-duty commercial trailers in Canada

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WORKING PAPER 2017-2

Market analysis of heavy-duty commercial
trailers in Canada
Date: 9 March 2017
Author: Ben Sharpe
Keywords: commercial trailer sales, Canada, market shares, trailer-to-tractor ratio, activity rates, ownership cycles,
annual kilometers

1. Introduction                                       some form of fuel efficiency or GHG                    importers will be included in the final
                                                      regulation for heavy-duty commercial                   rule, which is expected to be released
Worldwide, freight vehicles are a
                                                      trucks and buses. In addition, the gov-                by the summer of 2016.
major and growing contributor to
                                                      ernments of India, Brazil, South Korea,
fuel consumption and climate change                                                                          The Government of Canada has
                                                      Mexico, and the European Union are
emissions in the on-road transportation                                                                      committed to align its emission
                                                      actively developing policy measures
sector. In the 2020 to 2030 time frame,                                                                      standards and test procedures for
                                                      to accelerate the adoption of fuel-
on-road heavy-duty vehicle emissions                                                                         the transportation sector with those
                                                      saving technologies for commercial
will become approximately equivalent                                                                         of the federal emissions program
                                                      vehicle fleets.
to those of on-road passenger car and                                                                        of the U.S. Environment Protection
light trucks, currently the largest overall           The U.S. and Canadian 1 Phase 1                        Agency (EPA), as set out in the
contributor to climate change within                  heavy-duty vehicle GHG programs                        Ozone Annex to the Canada-U.S.
the transport sector (International                   are currently being phased in from                     Air Quality Agreement (2000), and
Council on Clean Transportation 2016).                model-year (MY) 2014 to 2018 vehicles                  in the mandate and principles of the
In North America and many regions                     and can be thought of as four rules                    Canada‑U.S. Regulatory Cooperation
around the world, the majority of                     combined into one regulation. There                    Council. Given that Canada has a long
goods that are transported by road                                                                           history of harmonizing its vehicle reg-
                                                      are distinct provisions for the four
are borne by heavy-duty combination                                                                          ulations as much as possible with the
                                                      primary regulatory subcategories:
tractor-trailers. As a result, tractor-                                                                      U.S., Environment and Climate Change
                                                      on-road tractors, pickup trucks and
trailers often account for the largest                                                                       Canada commissioned this market
                                                      vans, vocational vehicles, and engines
percentage of vehicle-kilometers                                                                             study along with a previous research
                                                      of on-road tractors and vocational
traveled and thus fuel consumption and                                                                       project that looked at the costs
                                                      vehicles. The Phase 1 heavy-duty
emissions from heavy-duty vehicles. In                                                                       and adoption rates of heavy-duty
                                                      vehicle programs in both countries
Canada, tractor-trailers are estimated                                                                       commercial trailer fuel-saving tech-
                                                      delayed the incorporation of trailers
to represent nearly two-thirds of the                                                                        nologies in Canada (Sharpe and May
                                                      within the rulemaking owing to a
total diesel fuel use and greenhouse                                                                         2015) as part of its due diligence to
                                                      number of constraints at the time.                     investigate the feasibility of integrat-
gas (GHG) emissions from the on-road
                                                      However, in the proposed U.S. Phase                    ing these trailers into its Phase 2
heavy-duty sector (ibid).
                                                      2 regulation that was published in                     program, as was formally proposed
In response to the growing fuel con-                  June 2015, heavy-duty commercial                       in the U.S. This particular paper is
sumption and GHG emissions from                       trailers are included as a new major                   narrowly focused on the trailer market
commercial vehicles, many govern-                     e q u i p m e n t c a te g o r y, a n d i t i s        in Canada. Its primary objectives are
ments around the world have begun                     anticipated that these new require-                    to: (1) analyze the sales market for
to take targeted steps to promote                     ments for trailer manufacturers and                    new commercial trailers; and (2) use
fuel-saving technologies within their                                                                        anecdotal data from industry experts
heavy-duty vehicle fleets. Since 2006,                1   In early 2013, Canada published standards          to estimate typical ownership cycles
                                                          for heavy-duty vehicles that are fully
Japan, California, the United States,                     harmonized with the U.S. program in all            and activity rates for various types of
China, and Canada have adopted                            significant aspects of regulatory design.          trailers. As such, the remainder of the

Acknowledgements: This work is funded by Environment and Climate Change Canada. The author thanks all of the companies that were gracious enough
to take the time to participate in the interviews for this study. Also, we are very grateful for the excellent reviews of officials from Environment and Climate
Change Canada’s Transportation Division and Regulatory Analysis and Valuation Divison, and the valuable contributions of Oscar Delgado of the ICCT.

© INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION, 2016                                                                                 WWW.THEICCT.ORG
MARKET ANALYSIS OF HEAVY-DUTY COMMERCIAL TRAILERS IN CANADA

report is organized into two sections:               Table 1: Deficiencies in the trailer sales data and mitigation measures

    • Section 2 provides an overview                                 Issue                                     Mitigation measure
      of the heavy-duty commercial                    Both datasets included ‘personal
                                                                                            Information about each of the 184 unique manufacturer/
      trailer market in Canada in terms               use’ trailers, which include
                                                                                            importer’s product lines and customer types were
                                                      trailers that are generally towed
      of sales by province, manufac-                                                        acquired by surveying their websites. After reviewing
                                                      by pickup trucks or small
                                                                                            all of this online information, it was determined that
      turer/importer market shares,                   commercial vehicles. These types
                                                                                            companies generally sell to either heavy-duty trucking
      types of trailers sold, and the                 of trailers are typically used
                                                                                            fleets or for light-duty personal use—not both. As
                                                      to haul equipment, passenger
      ratio of trailers to tractors.                  vehicles, livestock, and various
                                                                                            such, each manufacturer/importer was identified as
                                                                                            either commercial or non-commercial, and only the
    • Section 3 summarizes the data                   other items. These trailers are not
                                                                                            commercial sales are included in this analysis.
                                                      hauled by heavy-duty tractors.
      on trailer ownership and activity
                                                                                            Sales for Quebec were adjusted as follows. The author
      patterns from interviews with
                                                                                            had access to data showing total tractor sales by
      trucking fleets, manufacturers/                 Compared to the national
                                                                                            province for 2010 to 2014. (ENVIRON EC (Canada) Inc.
                                                      total, the reported trailer
      importers, and other industry                   sales in Quebec for all years
                                                                                            2015). Provision of Estimates of Historical Sales and
      experts.                                                                              Registrations and of Forecast Sales of New On-Road
                                                      are significantly lower than
                                                                                            Heavy-Duty Vehicles in Canada. Mississauga, ON. For
                                                      is plausible, given Quebec’s
                                                                                            each year (2005-2014), the average ratio of estimated
                                                      population and economic
2. O
    verview of Canada’s                              importance in Canada.
                                                                                            tractor sales in Quebec compared to Ontario for 2010-
                                                                                            2014 were multiplied by trailer sales in Ontario to yield
   trailer sales market                                                                     estimated trailer sales in Quebec.
The Canada trailer market sales data                                                        The ratio of trailer sales in Manitoba to sales in Ontario
                                                      Sales in Manitoba for years 2012
                                                                                            for 2011 are multipled by trailer sales in Ontario for
referenced in this paper include                      to 2014 drop off considerably (by
                                                                                            2012, 2013, and 2014 to yield estimated trailer sales in
calendar years 2005 through 2014.                     ~ 95%) versus 2005 to 2011.
                                                                                            Manitoba for those three years.
Two datasets were acquired from                                                             Due to such a high degree of uncertainty in this dataset,
                                                      In the second dataset, trailer
IHS Automotive. The first dataset                                                           the author decided not to use this trailer type data in
                                                      type is labeled “unknown” or
has trailer registrations2 grouped by                                                       the analysis. As described in more detail in Section 2.2,
                                                      is unspecified for nearly half of
                                                                                            the percentages of sales by trailer type for the United
manufacturer/importer and postal                      total sales.
                                                                                            States are used to estimate the breakdown for Canada.
code. The second dataset groups
                                                                                            U.S. data for trailer sales by length provides reasonable
trailers into 35 distinct trailer types               Neither dataset has trailer           first-order estimates for the percentage of sales within
and presents annual sales for each of                 length data.                          each length category by trailer type. See Figure 3-1 in
these categories. The second dataset                                                        (Sharpe, Clark et al. 2013).
also has aggregated totals of Class
8 (i.e., gross vehicle weight rating
greater than 33,000 pounds) tractor
and trailer sales.

Though these datasets are helpful in                                                                     NUNAVUT
providing valuable information about                                                                    TERRITORIES

heavy-duty commercial trailer sales                    YUKON
                                                     TERRITORY
in Canada, a number of shortcomings
were found, which are summarized
                                                                   NORTHWEST
in Table 1.                                                        TERRITORIES

Having adjusted the sales totals
                                                           BRITISH
for Q u eb ec a n d M ani to b a, t he                    COLUMBIA                                                             NEWFOUNDLAND
breakdown of percentage sales of                                                                                               AND LABRADOR
trailers by province in 2014 is shown                             ALBERTA
in Figure 1. Together, Ontario, Quebec,
                                                                                      MANITOBA
and Alberta represent over 80% of
                                                                                                                QUEBEC
commercial trailer sales in Canada.                                   SASKATCHEWAN
Sales for each of the remaining                                                                 ONTARIO                                       PRINCE
provinces are 7% or less, with the                                                                                                           EDWARD
three territories accounting for only                                                                                                         ISLAND
                                                                                                                                      NOVA
a negligible portion of overall sales.
                                                                                                                           NEW SCOTIA
                                                                                                                        BRUNSWICK
2    In this analysis, registrations are used as a
     proxy for sales. This dataset was created by
     amassing registration data from the various     Figure 1: Percentage of trailer sales by province in 2014
     motor vehicle bureaus in each province.

2   INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION                                                                            WORKING PAPER 2016-7
MARKET ANALYSIS OF HEAVY-DUTY COMMERCIAL TRAILERS IN CANADA

As shown in Figure 2, nearly 33,000                           35,000
trailers were sold in Canada in 2014.
In recent years, the market has
recovered from the roughly 50% drop                           30,000
in sales due to the global economic
crisis of 2008-2009.
                                                              25,000

2.1 MANUFACTURER/IMPORTER

                                               Annual Sales
MARKET SHARES                                                 20,000

The sales of the top 10 commercial
trailer manufacturers/importers                               15,000
between 2005 and 2014 are shown in
Figure 2. In this figure, the manufac-
turers/importers are ordered in terms                         10,000
of cumulative sales over the 10-year
study period, with the market leader
                                                               5,000
on the bottom and then decreasing in
market share moving up the figure. In
terms of cumulative sales, Manac led                                 0
all manufacturers/importers with 15%                                 2005       2006    2007    2008      2009       2010   2011   2012     2013     2014
of total sales, with a maximum market
share of 27% in 2008 and a minimum                        Remaining manufacturers                   Vanguard National              Great Dane Trailers
of 8% in 2012. This 19 percentage point                                                             Trailer Corp.
                                                          Hyundai Translead                                                        Stoughton Trailers
swing in market share was second                                                                    Lode King
                                                          Doepker                                                                  Utility Trailer
only to Stoughton, which had a 24                                                                   Wabash National Corp.
percentage point difference between                      Max – Atlas                                                               Manac Inc.
their maximum in 2007 (28%) and
                                                Figure 2: Annual trailer sales by manufacturer/importer, 2005 – 2014
their lowest share in 2014 (4%). In
2005, Utility Trailer was the market                                        2014                                            2005 – 2014
leader at 13% of total sales, and Great
                                                                                   9%
Dane, Manac, and Stoughton followed                                                                                                        14%
closely behind with 11%, 11%, and 10%              29%                                                          25%
                                                                                               9%
of sales, respectively. Between 2005
and 2014, Hyundai Translead’s market
share grew significantly (from 1%                                                                   4%                                                12%
to 12%), and by 2014 they were the                                                                   4%
top-selling trailer maker in Canada.
                                                                                                           3%
The other manufacturer/importer                                                                     5%
that saw significant growth in sales                                                                        4%                                       9%
was Vanguard, with its market share
                                                                                               6%               5%
increasing from 2% in 2005 to 10%              12%
in 2014, which put this company                                                                                       6%                      8%
in second place behind Hyundai                                  5%                      10%
                                                                           7%                                               7%       7%
Translead. Combined, the market
share of the top ten manufactur-
                                                         Manac Inc.                     Wabash National Corp.                Max – Atlas
ers/importers was 73% in 2005 and
remained relatively stable over the                      Utility Trailer                Lode King                            Doepker
10-year period and was 72% in 2014.                      Stoughton Trailers             Vanguard National                    Hyundai Translead
                                                                                        Trailer Corp.
I n F i g u re 3 , t h e m a r ke t s h a re             Great Dane Trailers                                                 Remaining manufacturers
breakdowns for 2014 are shown in the           Figure 3: Manufacturer/importer market shares for new commercial trailer sales
chart on the left, while the chart on
the right chart shows the manufac-              The average annual registrations/                           shown in Table 2. The right column
turer/importer sales percentages for            sales between 2005 and 2014 for the                         lists the primary types of trailers sold
the entire 10-year period.                      top ten manufacturers/importers are                         by each manufacturer. For seven of

WORKING PAPER 2016-7                                                                         INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION            3
MARKET ANALYSIS OF HEAVY-DUTY COMMERCIAL TRAILERS IN CANADA

the ten manufacturers/importers,           Table 2: The top ten trailer manufacturers/importers in Canada
box-type trailers (i.e., dry and refrig-
                                                                    Average Annual
erated box van trailers) represent            Manufacturer/        New Registrations    Rank in
the largest portion of their business           importer             (2005-2014)         2014            Primary types of trailers sold
(Sharpe, Clark et al. 2013). As such,                                                              Dry and refrigerated box van,
                                           Manac                        4,058              4
as is discussed in more detail in the                                                              flatbed, specialty
following section, box-type trailers are                                                           Dry and refrigerated box van,
                                           Utility Trailer              3,274              3
estimated to account for the majority                                                              flatbed
of sales in Canada, as in the U.S.                                                                 Dry box van, grain, drop frame
                                           Stoughton Trailers           2,497             10
                                                                                                   van
Just as the manufacturing, import/                                                                 Dry and refrigerated box van,
export, and sales of vehicles is           Great Dane Trailers          2,283              9
                                                                                                   flatbed
highly integrated between Canada                                                                   Dry and refrigerated box van,
                                           Wabash National              1,869              7
and the U.S., the same is true for                                                                 flatbed, tanker
the commercial trailer market. In          Lode King                    1,841              6       Grain, flatbed, drop frame van
interviews with industry experts, they     Vanguard National            1,611              2       Dry box van, container chassis
indicated that supply chains, distribu-
                                           Max-Atlas                    1,366              5       Container chassis
tion, sales, and support networks are
                                           Doepker                      1,274              8       Grain, flatbed, forestry
highly interconnected between the
two neighboring countries. This is                                                                 Dry and refrigerated box van,
                                           Hyundai Transled                793             1
                                                                                                   container chassis
reflected in the sales data, as six out
of the top ten companies operating in
                                           Table 3: Length breakdown of new commercial trailer sales in the U.S. between 2003
Canada are also in the top ten in the
                                           and 2011
U.S. However, the four manufacturers
in Canada (i.e., Manac, Lode King,             Trailer category        < 40 ft.   40 – 52 ft.       53 ft.         > 53 ft.       Total
Max-Atlas, and Doepker) have the           Dry box van trailers         20.3%           9.7%        69.8%             0.2%        100%
large majority of their sales in Canada    Refrigerated box van
and have a much smaller presence in                                     16.3%          16.1%        67.3%             0.3%        100%
                                           trailers
the U.S.                                   Non-box trailers             29.2%          53.9%        14.0%             2.9%        100%

2.2 SALES BY TRAILER TYPE                                          2,067
                                                             555
                                                                    6%
                                                         801 2%
From conversations with seven man-
                                                         2%
ufacturers, fleets, and other industry             950
                                                   3%
experts, a common message was that                                                                                Dry box van
                                              1,070
the distribution of sales of various                                                            15,377
                                                3%                                                                Refrigerated box van
types of trailers is fairly similar in                                                           47%
                                           2,210                                                                  Flatbed
Canada and the U.S. Therefore, rather       7%
than relying on the highly uncertain                                                                              Container chassis
Canadian data file with sales by trailer
                                                                                                                  Grain
type, the author determined that the
percentage breakdowns for sales in                                                                                Dump
                                           2,965
the U.S. is a reasonable first-order        9%                                                                    Tanker
approximation for Canada. The sales                                                                               Lowbed
by trailer type data for the U.S. (for
2003-2011) is much more robust than                                                                               Other
the Canadian data. In that U.S. file,
                                                   6,910
only about 2% of sales are unspeci-                 21%
fied, compared to around 40% for
the Canadian file. See Figure 3-2 in       Figure 4: Trailer sales by type in 2014, assuming the identical breakdown of sales by
(Sharpe, Clark et al. 2013).               type as in the U.S. between 2003 and 2011

Applying the sales by trailer type         are the most common type of trailer            second-highest selling type of trailer
percentages from the U.S. to the           in the market, representing roughly            at about one-fifth of total sales.
Canadian sales totals yield the values     half of total sales. Refrigerated              Together, these box-type trailers
shown in Figure 4 for sales in 2014. As    box van trailers (refrigerated vans            make up just over two-thirds of the
shown, dry box van trailers (dry vans)     or “reefers”) follow dry vans as the           market, with specialty trailers such

4   INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION                                                                 WORKING PAPER 2016-7
MARKET ANALYSIS OF HEAVY-DUTY COMMERCIAL TRAILERS IN CANADA

as flatbeds, container chassis, grain,                     35,000                                                                   2.50
dump, and tanker trailers making up

                                                                                                                                           Trailer-to-tractor sales ratio
the remaining one-third of sales.                          30,000
                                                                                                                                    2.00
Trailer length is also a parameter that                    25,000

                                            Annual sales
was missing from the dataset, thus                         20,000                                                                   1.50
the U.S. data can again be used as
a reasonable first-order approxima-                        15,000                                                                   1.00
tion for the Canadian market. Table
3 summarizes the length breakdown                          10,000
                                                                                                                                    0.50
for three major commercial trailer                          5,000
categories. For both dry and refriger-
ated box van trailers, nearly 70% of                           0                                                                    0.00
new sales are 53 feet (ft.), and the                                2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
remaining 30% of new sales (approxi-                                          Tractors            Trailers    Sales ratio
mately) are trailers shorter than 53
ft. Trailers longer than 53 ft. only         Figure 5: Tractor truck and trailer sales, 2005 – 2014
represent a marginal (i.e., less than
0.3%) portion of box trailer sales. As       account for the fact that there are                    2 proposal (U.S. Environmental
shown, non-box trailers tend to be           three trailers for every tractor in the                Protection Agency 2015).
shorter, on average, than box trailers,      fleet, and thus the average annual
                                             vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) for                  One of the objectives of this study
with almost 85% of sales being less
                                             tractors is three times as large as that               is to analyze trailer-to-tractor sales
than 53 ft. in length.
                                             of trailers.                                           and stock ratios for Canada’s trucking
The ICCT recommends that                                                                            fleet. Figure 5 shows sales of tractors
future research be aimed towards             Therefore, since the value assumed                     and trailers between 2005 and 2014.
developing a more accurate Canada-           for this ratio has such a critical                     The red data point for each year is the
specific breakdown of sales by trailer       impact on the economics of trucking                    ratio of trailers to tractors sold. This
type and length.                             operations, it is important that                       sales ratio ranged from 1.2 in 2005 to
                                             policymakers have a reasonably                         2.1 in 2009, and over the 10-year period
                                             good assessment of the average                         the ratio of cumulative sales was 1.6.
2.3 TRAILER-TO-TRACTOR                       trailer-to-tractor in-use and sales                    This value of 1.6 is comparable to the
RATIOS                                       ratios so that the costs and benefits                  average trailer-to-tractor sales ratio in
In North America and many regions            estimated in a regulation targeting                    the U.S. between 1986 and 2011, which
around the world, trailers are typically     both tractors and trailers adequately                  was 1.7 (R.L Polk & Co. 2012). For the
paired with numerous different on-road       re f l e c t co n d i t i o n s i n t h e re a l -     time period over which the datasets
tractors and are often parked alone          world. According to the Bureau of                      for the two countries overlap—that
without a tractor in order to accommo-       Transportation Statistics in the U.S.,                 is, 2005 to 2011—the trailer-to-tractor
date logistical constraints and allow for    there are approximately three trailers                 sales ratios for Canada and the US
more efficient use of the tractor fleet.     for every tractor for the entire trac-                 were 1.6 and 1.5, respectively.
As such, it is generally the case that       tor-trailer fleet in the U.S. (Bureau
                                             of Transportation Statistics 2010).                    Todaystrucking.com has maintained a
trailers far outnumber tractors.
                                             This three-to-one in-use ratio is used                 database of the 100 largest trucking
Estimating the ratio of trailers-to-         in both of the major studies that                      fleets in Canada by combined tractor
tractors is an important element of          formed the basis for the U.S. Phase 1                  and trailer ownership since 2001.
any analysis looking at the impacts of       regulatory technology potential and                    (Carter 2016) The latest data from
additional technologies for tractor-         cost analyses (Kromer, Bockholt et                     2016 is summarized in Figures 6 and
trailers. For example, say there is a        al. 2009, Committee on Assessment                      7. Figure 6 is a scatter plot of the
trucking fleet that has 100 tractors         of Technologies and Approaches for                     trailer-to-tractor ratios for all 100
and 300 trailers, and they are con-          Reducing the Fuel Consumption of                       fleets. While the in-use ratios range
sidering a technology package that           Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles                        widely (from 1.2 to 19.4), the large
would impose an increase of X dollars        2010, U.S. Environmental Protection                    majority (84%) of values are clustered
per tractor and Y dollars per trailer.       Agency 2011), and this same ratio                      between 2 and 6. Combined, these
In their return on investment calcula-       was also assumed in the trailer                        100 fleets own roughly 130,000
tion, the fleet must express the total       impact analysis in the U.S. Phase                      trailers and 43,000 tractors, which
per tractor-trailer costs as X + 3Y to                                                              yields an estimated average ratio of 3.

WORKING PAPER 2016-7                                                              INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION                    5
MARKET ANALYSIS OF HEAVY-DUTY COMMERCIAL TRAILERS IN CANADA

One of the reasons why this in-use                                     20
ratio of 3 is much higher than the
1.6 sales ratio is the fact that trailers                              18
tend to have longer useful lives
                                                                       16
than tractors and are often used as
parked storage devices. Also, there                                    14

                                            Trailer-to-tractor ratio
are often permanent registration
options for trailers, which makes it                                   12
difficult to know when trailers are
taken out of service.                                                  10

Figure 7 summarizes the trailer and                                     8
tractor ownership for the 25 largest
                                                                        6
fleets. The value to the right of the                                                                                                   AVERAGE = 3.0

data bars is the trailer-to-tractor                                    4
in-use ratio for each fleet. Transforce
is by far the largest fleet in Canada                                   2
and has more than double the
combined number of trailers and                                        0
tractors than Mullen Group, the sec-
                                              Figure 6: Trailer-to-tractor ratios for the 100 largest trucking fleets in Canada
ond-largest carrier. Beyond the top
five fleets, the next largest 20 fleets
each own between roughly 2,000
                                                                           Purolator        2.8
and 5,000 trailers and tractors.                   International Truckload Services         3.4
                                                                                                                             Trailers     Tractors

                                                                 Rosenau Transport          3.9
                                                  C.A.T./Canadian American Trans.           3.9
3. Trailer ownership and                                                  SGT 2000          4.9
                                                                    Rosedale Group           2.9
activity patterns                                                 M-O Freightworks           3.5
                                                               Hyndman Transport             3.5
Quantitative data on trailer ownership                       H&R Transport Limited           2.9
cycles and activity patterns are                     Siemens Transportation Group            2.6
                                                           Westcan Bulk Transport              2.8
lacking. To address this knowledge
                                              Kriska Transportation Group Limited              3.0
gap, the ICCT has interviewed a                                    Transfreight, Inc.         5.3
number of experts in the Canadian                                   Canada Cartage                 1.2
                                                        Manitoulin Transport Group              3.3
trucking industry. For this project,
                                                                      SLH Transport            8.6
the study team interviewed seven                                     Groupe Robert                3.0
individuals that represent some of                    Challenger Motor Freight Inc.                2.2
                                                 Day & Ross Transportation Group                    2.1
the leading trailer manufacturers/                 Armour Transportation Systems                   3.9
importers, fleets, and suppliers in                             Bison Transport inc                    2.7
Canada. These individuals provided              Trimac Transportation Services LP                      3.5
                                                                         TransX Ltd                     3.0
their best judgment on average                                    Mullen Group Ltd.                                2.8
trailer ownership and activity (i.e.,                                TransForce Inc.                                                     3.1

annual kilometers) patterns. These                                                      0      5,000      10,000    15,000   20,000     25,000   30,000
seven responses were combined with
previous survey data of 18 companies          Figure 7: Tractors and trailer owned by the 25 largest trucking fleets in Canada
that were collected by Pollution
Probe in collaboration with the ICCT               and refrigerated box van trailers and                 When asked about the average
(Sharpe and May 2015). Together,                   specialty trailers, which include all                 duration of ownership for the first
these 25 interview responses form                  non-box trailers such as flatbed, tanker,             owner of a dry van, responses
a diverse set of perspectives and                  and bulk material trailers. This three-               ranged from 7 to 15 years, and the
data points that the study team used               category segmentation approach                        most common answer was 10 years.
to create typical profiles for trailer             (i.e., dry and refrigerated box van                   Interviewees stated that trailers are
ownership and activity, which are                  trailers, and non-box trailers) is the                generally in long-haul operations
summarized in Figure 8.                            same framework that was employed                      and most active in terms of annual
                                                   in the trailer portion of the U.S. Phase              kilometers (km) during this first
As shown in the figure, trailers are               2 GHG proposal (U.S. Environmental                    ownership cycle, and a reasonable
segmented in three categories: dry                 Protection Agency 2015).                              estimate is between 40,000 and

6   INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION                                                                             WORKING PAPER 2016-7
MARKET ANALYSIS OF HEAVY-DUTY COMMERCIAL TRAILERS IN CANADA

                                                                       10                            20
                         Age (years)

   DRY VANS                             First owner

                                        7 – 15 years (10 avg.); 40,000 – 60,000 km/year

                                                             Second owner
                                                             ~ 5 years; 20,000 – 40,000 km/year

                                                                                       End of life

                                                                                       Parked storage; sold to developing markets

   REFRIGERATED TRAILERS                First owner

                                        10 – 15 years; 80,000 – 100,000 km/year

                                                                        Second owner

                                                                        ~ 5 years; 40,000 - 70,000 km/year

                                                                                       End of life

                                                                                       Parked storage; sold to developing markets

   SPECIALTY TRAILERS                   First owner
                                        15 – 20 years; annual kilometers highly variable
                                                                                       End of life

                                                                                       Scrapped and/or sold for parts

Figure 8: Typical trailer ownership and activity patterns over its useful life

60,000 km per year. Typically, dry             to maintain the refrigeration units,          the final stage in its lifetime.
vans can be re-sold fairly easily, since       survey respondents indicated that
they are not highly specialized for            fleets tend to keep reefers longer            Due to the tremendous variety in the
a particular payload or operational            than dry vans. Another unique aspect          specialty trailer market, there was less
profile. Respondents stated that dry           of refrigerated van operations is that        convergence in the survey responses
vans tend to go into more regional             fleets with a large percentage of             around ownership cycles and activity
and local service during their second          reefers in their fleet tend to have a         rates. However, one of the key themes
ownership cycle, and annual activity           much lower trailer-to-tractor ratio           about specialty trailers was that
decreases to between 20,000 and                than fleets that primarily run dry            these trailers are often expensive
40,000 km. Following this second               vans. One respondent said that a rule         to purchase and maintain, and,
ownership cycle, most interviewees             of thumb is that dry van fleets have          therefore, fleets generally keep them
indicated that dry vans are either             trailer-to-tractor ratios between 2           for many years. On the question of
sold to developing markets (e.g.,              and 2.5, while reefer fleets have ratios      ownership, a typical answer was that
Latin America) or used as perma-               between 1.2 and 1.5. As such, the             fleets keep these trailers for 15 to 20
nently parked storage.                         interviewees remarked that reefers            years or more and use these trailers
                                               usually travel more annual kilometers         until they have little to no residual
According to Commercial Trailer                than dry vans. In terms of ownership          value. Average annual kilometers for
Blue Book data, an average refrig-             progressions, most respondents                specialty trailers are highly dependent
erated box van trailer costs about             commented that a reefer follows a             on the specific operational profile of
twice as much as a dry box van trailer         similar path as a dry van, migrating          the fleet. Consequently, most of the
(Price Digest 2012). Since reefers             from high mileage service with the            interviewees were hesitant to give a
are more expensive and additional              first owner, to regional operations           numerical range for annual kilometers
resources must be invested annually            later in life, and storage or export as       for this category of trailers. More

WORKING PAPER 2016-7                                                            INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION      7
MARKET ANALYSIS OF HEAVY-DUTY COMMERCIAL TRAILERS IN CANADA

research is needed to determine             with respect to dry vans, reefers, and             Climate Change Canada and other
how activity rates vary amongst the         specialty (i.e., non-box trailers) trailers.       policymakers across North America
various operations of different types       Combining these interview responses                in their evaluation of policy measures
of specialty trailers.                      with ownership and activity data                   for heavy-duty commercial trailers.
                                            obtained in a previous industry survey             More comprehensive and granular
                                            conducted by Pollution Probe and                   data are needed to sharpen the
4. Conclusions                              the ICCT, the study team developed                 knowledge of the Canadian trailer
The primary objectives of this study        typical usage profiles for the three               market, particularly with respect to
were to analyze the new commercial          broad trailer categories, which are                trailer types, lengths, and overall
trailer sales market in Canada and          summarized as follows:                             population estimates.
build on previous research to refine
estimates for trailer ownership               • F i r st ow n e r s te n d to ke e p
cycles and average activity rates.              dry vans for about 10 years                    References
Overall, the Canadian trailer market            and operate them between
                                                                                               Bureau of Transportation Statistics
has rebounded from the 2008-2009                40,000 and 60,000 km per
                                                year. Second owners are then                     (2010). State Transportation
global economic crisis, and annual
                                                likely to use dry vans in more                   Statistics. Washington, DC,
sales averaged 32,000 units between
                                                regional routes, and annual                      Research and Innovative
2011 and 2014. Manac, Utility
                                                activity is roughly cut in half.                 Technology Administration, U.S.
Trailer, Stoughton, Great Dane, and
                                                After 5 to 7 years of this more                  Department of Transportation.
Wabash National have the largest
cumulative sales between 2005 and               limited service, dry vans are                  Canada’s top 100 carriers: 2016.”
2014, though in recent years, sales             generally sold to developing                     Retrieved February 3, 2016, from
for both Hyundai Translead and                  markets or converted to                          http://www.todaystrucking.com/
Vanguard National have surged, and              stationary storage units.                        top100.
in 2014 those two companies were              • Reefers follow a similar                       Committee on Assessment of
the market leaders.                             three-tier ownership and usage                   Technologies and Approaches
                                                progression as dry vans, except                  for Reducing the Fuel
Between 2005 and 2014, cumulative
                                                it was clear from the interview                  Consumption of Medium- and
sales of trailers in Canada were larger
                                                responses that fleets primarily
than sales of tractors by a ratio of 1.6,                                                        Heavy-Duty Vehicles (2010).
                                                operating reefers tend to have
which is quite similar to the ratio in                                                           Technologies and Approaches to
                                                lower trailer-to-tractor ratios,
the U.S. between 2005 and 2011 (1.5).                                                            Reducing the Fuel Consumption
                                                and thus these reefer units
For the largest 100 fleets in Canada,                                                            of Medium- and Heavy-Duty
                                                amass more annual kilometers
the average in-use trailer-to-tractor                                                            Vehicles. Washington, DC,
                                                with their first (80,000 to
ratio is 3, but values ranged widely—                                                            National Research Council of the
                                                100,000 km) and second
from 1.2 to 19.4. National tractor and                                                           National Academies.
                                                (40,000 to 70,000 km) owners.
trailer registration totals are needed
                                                                                               ENVIRON EC (Canada) Inc. (2015).
to determine whether this value of 3          • Given the remarkable diversity
                                                                                                 Provision of Estimates of
is reasonably accurate for the entire           w i t h i n t h e n o n - b ox t ra i l e r
                                                c a te g o r y, i t i s d i f f i c u l t to     Historical Sales and Registrations
Canadian fleet. More research is
                                                establish a uniform ownership                    and of Forecast Sales of New
needed to determine the number of
                                                and usage profile that applies                   On-Road Heavy-Duty Vehicles in
total commercial trailers in Canada,
since the Statistics Canada data for            across the entire group.                         Canada. Mississauga, ON.
trailer registrations includes personal         Nevertheless, a common theme                   International Council on Clean
use trailers that are used in the               f ro m t h e re s p o n d e n t s wa s            Transportation. (2016). “Global
passenger car and light truck markets.          that these trailers are typically                 Transportation Roadmap Model.”
                                                more expensive to purchase                        Retrieved February 8, 2016, from
Interviews were conducted with                  and maintain, and thus, fleets                    http://www.theicct.org/global-
seven Canadian trucking industry                tend to keep these trailers for                   transportation-roadmap-model.
experts with the primary objective              the large majority or all of their
of collecting information about                 useful life, which can be 15 to 20             Kromer, M., W. Bockholt and M.
ownership and activity patterns over            years or more.                                    Jackson (2009). Assessment
the useful lifetimes of trailers. These                                                           of Fuel Economy Technologies
survey respondents were asked about         This project will provide data and                    for Medium- and Heavy- Duty
typical trailer usage behavior for fleets   analysis to assist Environment and                    Vehicles. Cupertino, CA, TIAX LLC.

8   INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION                                                              WORKING PAPER 2016-7
MARKET ANALYSIS OF HEAVY-DUTY COMMERCIAL TRAILERS IN CANADA

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   Commercial Class 8 Tractor
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  increased heavy-duty vehicle
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WORKING PAPER 2016-7                                                 INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION   9
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