Sabermetrics "If you challenge the conventional wisdom, you will find ways to do things much better than they are currently done." Michael Lewis ...

Sabermetrics
 “If you challenge the conventional wisdom, you will
 find ways to do things much better than they are
 currently done.” Michael Lewis, Moneyball

Masashi Kawabata

What is Sabermetrics? Why is it
important?
• Study of Baseball; analyzing stats in mathematical
  approach

• Clearly reflects the player’s abilities in numbers

• Revolutionary Concept, was not implemented until a
  dozen years ago

Who started it? What was the problem?
• Bill James

• “Baseball Abstract”

• Highly unrecognized, fans and scouts criticized
  his work

How did Sabermetrics become widely
known?

• Moneyball by Michael Lewis

• End of 2002 season, their best players Johnny
  Damon, Jason Giambi left for bigger contract

• Athletics needed to win games with limited
  amount of capital

How did the Athletics succeeded?

• Billy Beane and Paul Depodesta

• OBP (On Base Percentage)

• Shows how much the batter gets on base

The Equation of On Base Percentage

H = Hits
BB = Walks
HBP = Hit By Pitch
AB = At Bats
SF = Sacrifice Flies

Example Players in Moneyball
• Scott Hatteberg

• Fired from Red Sox; injured his shoulder as a
  catcher

• His valuable trait

Comparison

                       Scott Hatteberg   Johnny Damon
Salary (2002 season)   $ 900,000         $ 7,250,000

Average (500

Eleven Years Later…

• Evolution of Sabermetrics

• PITCH F(x) System

• Pros and Cons of advanced Sabermetrics

Ending the 20 years Curse

• Pittsburgh Pirates

• Gap of big/small organization

• Three players for 15 million

Pirates Key Man
• Russell Martin

• Pitching Frame

• Importance of count

• Signed 17 million for 2 years

Comparison 2
 Catcher   Called  Total   R/120G   2011   2010   2009   2008   2007
           Pitches Runs
 Russell   42186   71      15       15     10     20     14     11
 Martin

 Yadier    39184   37      8        7      7      1      16     6
 Molina

 Ryan      22861   -66     -26      -9     -3     -16    -36    -1
 Doumit

Analysis from Previous Graph
• Martin had higher saved runs than Molina

• Yadier Molina (8x Gold Glover, 4x Platinum
  Glover)

• Martin Helped runs for Yankees, yet his ability
  was unrecognized

Results of 2013 Season
• Martin’s work led to Post season

• Martin’s true value as a player

• Improvement of data analytics

My Research
• Comparison between Salisbury Knights, Division
  I/III players and MLB players

• See visually how some of our players are similar
  to professional players.

Example 1 – On Base Percentage
Player    Cooper            Auggie Mense        Kyle Seager
          Cheetham
Team      Crimson Knights   Wash U in St. Louis Seattle Mariners
Average   .273              .288                .278
OBP       .373              .448                .359

Example 2 – OPS
• OPS = OBP + SLG
• Importance of OPS
Player    Cam Meyer Drew Ellis         David Ortiz

Team      Holy Cross   University of   Boston Red
                       Louisville      Sox
OBP       .456         .481            .401
SLG       .792         .737            .620
OPS       1.248        1.218           1.021

Example 3 – WHIP
• WHIP = Walks plus Hits per Innings Pitched

 Player       Theo          Beau         Dallas
              McDowell      Sulser       Keuchel
 Team         Crimson       Dartmouth    Houston
              Knights                    Astros
 Innings      36.2          45           63.2
 Hits         19            31           51
 Walks        8             5            14
 WHIP         0.736         0.80         0.86

Sources
•   Lewis, M. (2003). Moneyball: The art of winning an unfair game. New York: W.W. Norton.
•   Sawchik, T. (2016). Big data baseball: math, miracles, and the end of a 20-year losing streak. New
    York: Flatiron Books.
•
•   Fast, M. (2011, September 24). Spinning Yarn: Removing the Mask Encore Presentation. Retrieved May
    24, 2017, from http://www.baseballprospectus.com
•
•   Phillips, E. S. (2016, March 08). Using "Moneyball" statistics to analyze Big West Conference baseball.
    Retrieved May 24, 2017, from http://mustangnews.net
•
•   MLB Stats, Scores, History, & Records. (n.d.). Retrieved May 24, 2017, from http://www.baseball-
    reference.com
•
•   Salisbury School | Spring 2017 | Prep Baseball. (n.d.). Retrieved May 24, 2017, from https://gc.com/
•
•   WashU - Season Statistics. (n.d.). Retrieved May 24, 2017, from http://www.washubears.com
•
•   Drew Ellis - 2017 Baseball. (n.d.). Retrieved May 24, 2017, from http://www.gocards.com
•
•   Beau Sulser Bio. (n.d.). Retrieved May 24, 2017, from http://www.dartmouthsports.com