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In collaboration with Santiment Issue 11 November 27 — December 10, 2020
Market Insights
61,800 BTC −18,415 BTC $9.2 billion
added this month by addresses of average one year BTC outflows leaving gold
holding 1k – 10k BTC holder in 2019 bull run in the last four weeks
COINTELEGR APH CONSULTING MARKET INSIGHTS ISSUE 11
Institution-driven adoption has pushed up the price of BTC, while the price of gold has dwindled off. Will a lack of retail
enthusiasm and bearish sentiment drag BTC back?
Key Takeaways
ý Big institutions and ‘whales’ have continued to accumulate over ý Crypto funds see near-record inflows
the latest rally as capital floods out of gold
ý The number of assets stored in addresses holding 0.1 – 1 BTC Visit Page
has declined by 18,415 BTC in the last 30 days.
ý The number of assets stored in addresses holding 0.01 – 0.1 BTC
has declined by 4,409 BTC in the last 30 days.
ý DBS to luanch digital exchange for
ý FTX listed Airbnb ahead of Wall Street IPO, raising more doubts institutional investors
about the long-term ability of traditional finance to hold of DeFi
Visit Page
2
Who is buying, whales or retail?
Market Analysis Are whales driving the BTC rally?
While Bitcoin just clocked its highest monthly close ever, some on-chain data And while most low-level cohorts show signs of FUD, it is the heavy-handed
suggests the retail money got shaken out early — and is yet to return. BTC investors — namely addresses holding 1k – 10k BTC — that have continued
to accumulate throughout the November rally, growing their collective bags
According to Santiment’s Holder Distribution metric, the combined balance of all
by another 61,800 BTC (~$1.1bn at the time of writing) in the past 30 days.
addresses holding 0.01 – 0.1 BTC has actually declined by 4,409 BTC (~$83m at the
time of writing) in the last month, with most of the downturn occurring between While the above data suggests the ‘whales’ and institutional money might be the
$13.5k and $15.5k, implying early retail capitulation. primary catalyst of Bitcoin’s rally (and are the group to watch moving forward)
it could also signal more room to grow should the retail paradigm shift back
Similarly, the combined balance of all addresses holding 0.1 – 1 BTC has shrunk
to accumulation.
even more prominently — by 18,415 BTC (~$345m at the time of writing) in the
last month — with much of the decline taking place between $13.5k and $17k.
Price (USD)
4
Market Analysis BTC sentiment turns bearish — FUD taking over?
Seems like the ATH euphoria is gone. According to our crowd sentiment data, the into bearish territory for the first time in almost two months.
average mood towards Bitcoin on crypto social media has been on a steadfast
Bad for BTC? Not necessarily. Extremely bullish sentiment has rarely been
decline in the past 2 weeks, pointing to growing crowd weariness about the top
a friend to Bitcoin in the past, often coinciding with short-term corrections
coin’s near-term potential.
as FOMO goes into overdrive. On the other hand, both of Bitcoin’s major
Bullish BTC sentiment peaked on November 22nd, hitting the highest level since breakouts this year — in July and October, respectively — originated from
the May 2020 halvening. Since then, we’ve seen an ongoing correction in the a predominantly bearish sentiment, as pictured below.
average mood towards the benchmark cryptocurrency, which has just veered
BTC weighted social sentiment
Price (USD)
Price (USD)
This analysis was prepared by Santiment, a market intelligence platform that provides on-chain, social media and development information on 900+
cryptocurrencies. Santiment develops tools, strategies and indicators to help users better understand crypto market behavior and identify data-driven Sign Up
investment opportunities.
5
Market Analysis Price — trading volume
ý On November 26th, when the BTC price plunged from $18,700 to just $17,150, ý Since that peak in November, BTC trading volume has been constantly
trading volume surpassed $60b for the first time since spring. decreasing until it reached $29b on December 9th. This is 40% lower
compared to over $49b recorded on the 1st of December.
Trading volume (USD)
Price (USD)
Price (USD) Trading volume, mn. (USD)
6
Market Analysis Price — annualized volatility
ý In the beginning of December BTC annualized volatility continued an upward ý Annualized volatility stays high after the BTC bullrun, but it is gradually
trend that was set in the previous month and peaked at over 72% decreasing as the BTC price is settling above $18,000.
on December 5th.
ý Since then annualized volatility has slightly decreased, but at the current level
of about 64% it is still 10% higher than one month before.
Price-annualized volatility
Annualized volatility, %
Price (USD)
Price (USD) Annualized volatility, %
7
Market Analysis BTC – DXY
ý The correlation between USD and DXY has been fluctuating around −0.5 since ý The BTC – DXY correlation has been negative for over 6 months so far, such
the middle of August. Over the last month, the correlation has been gradually a long period of negative correlation has not been observed over the last
decreasing from its peak of −0.35. 3 years.
8
Market Analysis BTC – Gold
ý The BTC – gold correlation has nosedived from 0.6 to −0.15 over the last two ý The correlation of gold with BTC has never stayed negative for more than three
months. weeks during the last two year period. As of the current period, the correlation
has been negative for less than a week.
9
Market Analysis BTC – S&P 500
ý BTC – S&P 500 correlation has been staying weak over the last month. ý For the past 11 months, S&P 500 and gold showed non-negative correlations
varying from 0 to 0.75.
10Market Analysis BTC – ETH
ý After a sharp decline of the BTC – ETH correlation in mid-late November, its ý The latest dip in the BTC – ETH correlation was at 0.54, whereas on the 7th
value returned to 0.8, which has been an average level for the past two years. of October 2019 this parameter fell to just 0.29.
11Legislation, Enterprise Blockchain Adoption, Institutional Activity, Venture Capital and M&A Activity
Institutional Activity
Guggenheim Partners prepares NYDIG raises $150 million for two Bitcoin arrives on Wall Street: Ethereum fund to debut on the
to dip investment fund’s toes into Bitcoin investment funds S&P Dow Jones launching crypto Toronto Stock Exchange
Bitcoin New York Digital In- indexes in 2021 Canadian digital as-
Guggenheim Part- vestment Group has S&P Dow Jones Indi- set investment man-
ners has filed an SEC raised $150 million ces — a joint venture ager 3iQ is going
amendment to allo- through two separate between S&P Global, to launch an IPO
cate over $500 mil- cryptocurrency in- the CME Group and of an Ethereum
lion from the Macro vestment funds. News Corp — will exchange-traded
Opportunities fund debut cryptocur- trust, on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
DEC 02, 2020 Visit Page
to Grayscale's GBTC. rency indexes in 2021. The firm will partner
DEC 05, 2020 Visit Page
with Lukka, a U.S. blockchain data provider,
NOV 29, 2020 Visit Page
to launch the indexes, which will cover a report-
ed 550 cryptocurrencies.
DEC 03, 2020 Visit Page
German bank launches crypto fund MicroStrategy will issue $400 million Standard Chartered to launch
covering portfolio of digital assets in securities to buy more Bitcoin institutional-grade crypto custody
German pri vate MicroStrategy has in 2021
bank Hauck & Auf- announced plans Standard Char-
häuser announced to invest the proceeds tered has officially
its first crypto fund, from a $400 million announced plans
the HAIC Digital As- securities offering to provide institu-
set Fund I, launching into Bitcoin. Later, tional custody for
Jan. 1, 2021. The initiative will target institutional the company announced it plans on selling major cryptocur-
investors who want to invest in a portfolio $550 million in convertible senior notes. rencies like Bitcoin (BTC). The platform is now
of crypto assets, including Bitcoin (BTC), Ether in the process of registering with the FCA under
DEC 08, 2020 Visit Page
(ETH) and Stellar (XLM). U.K. money laundering regulations and will apply
standards equivalent to the custody of tradi-
DEC 07, 2020 Visit Page
tional securities.
DEC 09, 2020 Visit Page
13Venture Capital and M&A Activity
Hong Kong OTC trading firm acquires
OMG Network
Investor: Genesis Block
DeFi protocol 1inch closes $12M funding Mexican exchange Bitso raises $62M to help
Business scope: OTC trading
round led by Pantera Capital fund international expansion
Headquarter: Hong-Kong
Investors: Pantera Capital, ParaFi Capital, Blockchain Capital, Acquired company: OMG Network Investors: Kaszek Ventures, QED Investors, Coinbase, Pan-
Spartan Group, Nima Capital Business scope: Ethereum-based scaling platform tera Capital
Fundraising company: 1inch protocol Headquarter: Thailand Fundraising company: Bitso
Business scope: Market maker protocol Announcement date: December 3rd, 2020 Business scope: Cryptocurrency exchange
Funding amount: Undisclosed
Announcement date: December 2nd, 2020 Announcement date: December 10th, 2020
Funding amount: $12 million Funding amount: $62 million
DEC 04, 2020 Visit Page
DEC 02, 2020 Visit Page DEC 10, 2020 Visit Page
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a passion for providing un-biased buy-side research. To schedule a free 30-minute consultation with Cointelegraph Consulting, respond to this email. 14Legislation
North America Asia Pacific
Justice Department extradites US lawmakers seek to make Authorities shut off South Korea to delay new tax
alleged BTC mining Ponzi operator stablecoins illegal without federal electricity to Bitcoin miners regime on cryptocurrencies until
from Panama approval in China’s Yunnan province 2022
The United States A bill introduced to the Authorities from the The South Korean
Department of Justice United States Con- city of Baoshan in the government has of-
and the Southern Dis- gress dubbed “The Chinese province ficially postponed
trict of New York have Stable Act” is aimed of Yunnan ordered a new tax regime
extradited Gutem- at enforcing blanket electricity producers on cryptocurrency
berg Dos Santos, a leader of the alleged regulation on all stablecoins. If passed, any to cease supplying power to the city’s miners. gains until 2022. The new amendments stip-
Ponzi scheme AirBit Club, from Panama. service provided in relation to these types The ban was probably informed by localized ulate that investors in South Korea pay a 20%
of cryptocurrencies would become illegal “economic interests,” and probably is not tax rate on crypto trading gains above 2.5 mil-
NOV 30, 2020 Visit Page
without first receiving approval by multiple indicative of a desire to quash crypto mining. lion won ($2,260) per year.
government bodies.
DEC 01, 2020 Visit Page DEC 01, 2020 Visit Page
DEC 03, 2020 Visit Page
One of Pakistan’s four provinces
SEC’s fintech wing leaves the nest, urges federal govt to legalize
becoming stand-alone office crypto
The United States Se- The assembly of Khy-
curities and Exchange ber Pakhtunkhwa,
Commission’s fintech a province in north-
team will become western Pakistan, has
an independent office. become the first leg-
islative assembly to call the federal govern-
DEC 03, 2020 Visit Page
ment to “take action to legalize cryptocur-
rency and cryptomining in Pakistan”.
DEC 04, 2020 Visit Page
15Legislation
Europe, the Middle East and Africa Rest of the World
UAE, Saudi Arabian central banks release Russian central bank opposes Crypto.com secures an Australian
report on Project Aber CBDC trial ruble-pegged stablecoins Financial Service License
The report on central bank dig- Sergei Shvetsov, a deputy governor Crypto exchange and debit card
ital currency project Aber devel- of the Russian central bank, said provider Crypto.com has secured
oped by the central banks of UAE that the bank aims to ban private an Australian Financial Service
and Saudi Arabia concludes that firms from offering stablecoins License, which allows it to legally
a CBDC is “not only technically vi- backed by the country’s fiat cur- issue its proprietary card in Aus-
able” for cross border payments, rency. Russian crypto developers tralia.
but also presents “significant improvement over central- will only be able to use the Bank of Russia’s digital ruble.
DEC 02, 2020 Visit Page
ized payment systems in terms of architectural resilience.”
DEC 02, 2020 Visit Page
NOV 29, 2020 Visit Page
Paris court sentences Alexander Vinnik German government unimpressed The Australian Senate just voted to kill
to five years in prison by Facebook stablecoin's rebrand the $10,000 ‘cash ban’ bill
Bitcoin launderer Alexander Vin- German Finance Minister Olaf A bill proposed by Australian
nik has been sentenced to five Scholz announced that despite lawmakers to ban the use
years in prison for "money laun- the rebranding of Libra, Face- of cash for transactions over
dering as part of an organized book and the Diem Association $10,000 has been killed by a unan-
criminal group and providing false have failed to adequately ad- imous senate vote. When the bill
information about the origin of the dress its regulatory risks. Until was first introduced, certain drafts
proceeds" in addition to a fine of 100,000 euro ($121,000) that is done, the German government “will not accept its entry included digital currencies in the proposed limits.
by a French court. into the market.”
DEC 03, 2020 Visit Page
DEC 07, 2020 Visit Page DEC 07, 2020 Visit Page
16Enterprise Blockchain Adoption
Financial Services
Russia’s Alfa-Bank offers blockchain platform for Swiss National Bank and BIS complete digital Thai tax collectors to streamline revenues with
freelancers currency proofs-of-concept blockchain tech in 2021
Russian Alfa-Bank will use block- The Bank for International Settle- Thailand's tax collection agency
chain-based applications to auto- ments has successfully completed will use blockchain technology
mate services for freelancers and two proofs-of-concept linking exist- to streamline tax payments next
self-employed workers by covering ing payment systems to a distrib- year. The three departments will com-
the entire process of registration uted ledger and settling tokenized bine blockchain-based collection data
and remuneration for self-em- assets with a wholesale CBDC. into a single database, which will sup-
ployed individuals, including payments settlement, income posedly make tax evasion more difficult.
DEC 04, 2020 Visit Page
registration and tax payments.
DEC 07, 2020 Visit Page
DEC 01, 2020 Visit Page
Israel’s Bank Hapoalim joins blockchain bank
guarantee platform
One of Israel’s largest banks, Bank
Hapoalim, has joined a block-
chain-based platform released
by IT firm Tata Consultancy Services.
The new tool will supposedly help
banks more effectively manage
the lifecycle of bank guarantees including issuance, modifica-
tion, termination and invocation.
DEC 10, 2020 Visit Page
17Enterprise Blockchain Adoption
Other Industries
New blockchain platform vows to shake Million-dollar startup taps Algorand to fight UN blockchain tool aims to improve land registry
up startups with ‘collabvesting’ climate change in Afghanistan’s cities
A new project called Active IDEA Blockchain marketplace Clima- The United Nations has released
is a platform where companies tetrade will be building its new a blockchain-powered solution
can discover freelancers and en- CO2 carbon offsetting platform to help the Afghan government
trepreneurs can develop business on Algorand. Climatetrade allows manage property ownership is-
ideas through crowdfunding. IDEA, companies to offset their CO2 foot- sues in the country’s urban areas.
an ERC-20 token, will be at the center print by purchasing carbon credits Known as “‘goLandRegistry,” the new
of its operation by jointly serving as a utility and payment token. directly on the platform. system is designed to record all property documents on a block-
chain, as well as issue occupancy certificates.
DEC 01, 2020 Visit Page DEC 02, 2020 Visit Page
DEC 04, 2020 Visit Page
LayerX will develop blockchain-based voting
system using digital ID verification in Japan
Japanese firm Layer X will be part-
nering with a digital identity appli-
cation called xID to build a block-
chain-based voting system in the
Japanese city of Kaga. xID appli-
cation will strengthen the compa-
ny’s existing voting system by helping verify a voter’s identity
and ensuring only one ballot is issued per person.
DEC 07, 2020 Visit Page
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