LABOUR MARKET INTELLIGENCE PACK - JUNE 2021 - West of England Combined Authority
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Introduction This document collates evidence about the labour market in the West of England, highlighting the current challenges posed by the COVID pandemic as well as identifying longer- term issues. The analysis looks at the characteristics and Contents spatial distribution of the labour force, and business and employer demand. It covers both short and long term This document is split into the Labour Market Intelligence and provides interpretation following sections: around the available data. Geography Section Page The document refers to the West of England region. This is Business Environment 4 taken to mean the West of England Local Enterprise Partnership area, which is made up of four unitary authorities: Unemployment, 10 Employment and ▪ Bath and North East Somerset Redundancy ▪ Bristol Current Labour 21 ▪ North Somerset Market Demand ▪ South Gloucestershire 2
Summary This section summarises results from the rest of the report. Business Environment Current Labour Market Demand ▪ The West of England has a broad sector base with a variety of ▪ Job posting data indicates that levels in May 2021 were similar to businesses based in the region. those seen pre-pandemic, and postings were up 121.1% on the year low of April 2020. There has been a shift in the type of jobs ▪ The West of England has some specialist industries that make up a advertised. Gains in recent months were partly driven by strong larger proportion of employment than the UK average, such as increases in postings in both the IT and human health and social care Civil Engineering, Education and Knowledge Creation, Creative, sector. Financial and Legal Services, and Digital. The impact of the economic downturn caused by the COVID pandemic is expected to ▪ The most frequently demanded jobs advertised May 2021 were: vary between sectors. Programmers and software development professionals (713), Sales related occupations (464), Nurse (431), Other administrative Unemployment, Employment and Redundancy occupations (410) and Managers and proprietors in other services (394). ▪ Thematic areas of skills demand: ▪ As of May 2021, 4.6% of working age population in the West of England were claiming unemployment benefits (34,100 (1) STEM subjects – these are the basis of many technological jobs. residents). This is 0.3 percentage points lower than the rate seen in April 2021 and the lowest rate seen since April 2020. (2) Digital/technology skills – these are applicable both within the important and resilient IT, creative and digital sectors, as well as in a variety of other jobs such as finance and investment roles. ▪ The Labour Force Survey confirms unemployment increased in the (3) Business skills – business related skills such as sales and South West region through most of 2020, although rates have been management are applicable across industry and see consistent falling since December 2020. Until the 3 months to March 2021, demand. males had a higher unemployment rate than females, until the male rate dropped below that of females. The region has a lower (4) Specific vocations – training for specific jobs currently in demand unemployment rate than England as a whole, at 3.8% regionally (based on evidence), for example warehouse operatives and HGV compared to 5.0% nationally. drivers, care workers, teachers and nurses. Sources: See corresponding later sections. 3
Businesses in the West of England Business concentration Business size There are 46,275 businesses in the West of England. That Individuals in the Labour Market are often unaware that is 400 businesses per 10,000 residents. This is below the 78% of businesses in the West of England have fewer than five UK average and in the middle of comparator areas. employees. The results below are similar to those for the UK overall (78.5%) Number of businesses per 10,000 people (2020) Employee size of businesses in the West of England (2019) London 593 Cambridgeshire and Peterborough 432 UK 412 West of England 400 Greater Manchester 369 West Midlands 311 Sheffield City Region 280 Liverpool City Region 277 Tees Valley 261 5 Source: ONS Annual Population Survey via NOMIS; Office for National Statistics (ONS) Business; Activity, Size and Location
Volume employers in the region The West of England has some volume employers with over 1,000 employees, including: 6
Employment by sector In 2019, the largest employing Employment by sector (% of total) (2019) sectors within the West of England LEP were: • Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (14% of all jobs in the region) • Human health and social work activities (13% of all jobs in the region) • Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities (11% of all jobs in the region) Source: ONS Business Register and Employment Survey via NOMIS 7
Regional Specialisms & Growth Areas The West of England has some specialist industries, which employ more people National jobs Average Wage in the region proportionally than the national average. The adjacent table Sector Location growth % (2019- (West of England, highlights the sectors where we have employment specialisms, alongside Specialism Quotient 2020) 2019) whether these sectors are growing or shrinking nationally. This helps us Vehicle and understand where there are growth opportunities, and where there may be a Defence future skills demand; or if a current specialism is at risk due to industry contraction. This is particularly relevant during the current pandemic where Technology 1.73 0% £41,379 COVID has altered or accelerated certain trends. Education and Knowledge Key points: Creation 1.44 2% £33,721 • Civil Engineering is a strength and is growing nationally, as is creative. Both Civil Engineering 1.41 2% £37,829 are strong contributors to GVA. Government 1.37 4% £27,593 • The West of England has more jobs in Education and Knowledge Creation Printing and (proportionally to the size of its working age population) than the UK Publishing 1.34 1% £23,479 average, with 1.44 jobs in this sector for every one nationally. Financial and • Given its engineering specialisms, the West of England could have Legal Services 1.33 -1% £34,556 opportunities in both Precision Technology and Maritime sectors, which it currently has a below average number of employees in. Creative 1.28 3% £30,233 For more information, see the ‘Regional Specialisms’ slide in the appendix. Metalworking Technology 1.26 2% £31,882 Local Environmental Services 1.14 1% £28,815 Passenger Source: EMSI ‘Strength Finder’ Tool, based on ONS ASHE and BRES Data Transport 1.14 2% £36,655 8
Future Trends: Pre-pandemic Predictions Shape of the UK Labour Market 2017 – 2027 Working Futures provides a comprehensive and detailed model of the UK labour market and skills needs. It projects the future size and shape of the labour market by considering employment prospects by industry, occupation, qualification level, gender and employment status. Areas of growth Areas of Decline Impact of COVID Sectoral trends in employment • Business Services including • Distribution • Areas of growth are still considered professional and scientific • Manufacturing accurate • Health & Social Care • Finance and Insurance • Distribution and construction are no • Construction longer likely to decline in the short • Public Admin term, due to policy and demand changes Occupational trends • Caring and professional service • Secretarial Occupations • Growth in caring and professional • Corporate managers and • Plant, Process and Machine service is likely accelerated directors Operatives • Declining areas could experience • Business and public service • Skilled Metal and Electronic accelerated decline, although the associate professionals Trades future of manufacturing remains uncertain Replacement Demand – natural Replacement demand amongst all • In the immediate future, churn and movement within occupational groups is expected to replacement demand is expected to sectors. generate 7 times more job be less strong than predicted opportunities than growth • Economic downturn and extensive uncertainty make it less likely for individuals to leave their work and seek new employment 9 Source: Working Futures 2017 - 2027
UNEMPLOYMENT, EMPLOYMENT AND REDUNDANCY
Economic Sectors The chart below shows the impact on Gross Value Added (GVA) of certain sectors of the economy at a UK level. Almost all sectors have experienced a drop in economic output since February 2020, but some have been more adversely impacted than others. Since the reopening of the economy over the summer of 2020 most sectors have not been so adversely effected by subsequent lockdowns; however accommodation and food services continue to be more negatively impacted, although increases in output were seen in April following the partial reopening of businesses. Monthly GVA change for various sectors from February 2020 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2020 FEB 2020 MAR 2020 APR 2020 MAY 2020 JUN 2020 JUL 2020 AUG 2020 SEP 2020 OCT2020 NOV 2020 DEC 2021 JAN 2021 FEB 2021 MAR 2021 APR Wholesale, retail & motors Other services Accomodation & food Financial & insurance Arts, entertainment & recreation Manufacturing Construction Baseline Source: ONS GDP estimates, February 2021 11
Claimant Count As of May 2021, 4.6% of working age population in the West of England were claiming unemployment benefits (34,100 Percentage of Working Age Residents Claiming Unemployment residents). This is 0.3 percentage points lower than the rate seen in April 2021 and the lowest rate seen since April 2020. Related Benefits 7.0 There are now 18,325 more claimants in the West of England than there were in February 2020, before the effects of the 6.0 pandemic hit. The rate in the West of England remains below the national 5.0 rate of 6.1% for May 2021. Bristol has the highest rate of claimants within the LEP, at 5.8% of the working age 4.0 population. May 2021 Count % of working age 3.0 B&NES 4,645 3.7 2.0 Bristol 18,255 5.8 5,195 4.2 1.0 N.Som S.Glos 6,000 3.4 0.0 June 2019 September December March 2020 June 2020 September December March 2021 West of England 34,100 4.6 2019 2019 2020 2020 Bath and North East Somerset Bristol, City of North Somerset England 2,148,130 6.1 South Gloucestershire West of England England 12
Labour Force Survey Unemployment The Labour Force Survey (LFS) provides estimates on unemployment in line with ILO definitions, which can provide a more robust picture Labour Force Survey: Percentage Unemployment Rate of unemployment than the claimant count. It is only available at South 6 West level. The LFS unemployment rate steadily rose from the start of the COVID- 19 pandemic both nationally and in the South West, peaking around 5 the end of 2020, and has seen falls in early 2021. The SW region rate was consistently lower than the national rate for the two years before COVID, and was 0.8 percentage points lower in January 4 to March 2020. This gap has closed since the pandemic, but widened again since the September – November period. Between January to March 2020 and February to April 2021, the male 3 rate of unemployment decreased by 0.3 percentage points in the South West. The female rates rose by 1.2 percentage points and is the driver behind the 0.5 increase for the total rate in the same period. South South South 2 England England England West West West Date male female total male female total Aug 2020- 5.5 4.8 5.2 5.5 3.6 4.6 Oct 2020 Sep 2020- 5.6 5.0 5.3 4.8 3.6 4.2 1 Nov 2020 Oct 2020- 5.6 5.1 5.4 4.6 4.4 4.5 Dec 2020 Nov 2020- 5.4 5.1 5.3 4.7 4.1 4.4 0 Jan 2021 Aug 2018-Oct Dec 2018-Feb Apr 2019-Jun Aug 2019-Oct Dec 2019-Feb Apr 2020-Jun Aug 2020-Oct Dec 2020-Feb 2018 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2021 Dec 2020- 5.3 4.9 5.1 4.5 3.9 4.2 Feb 2021 England male England female England total Jan 2021- 5.2 4.8 5.0 4.1 4.0 4.0 South West male South West female South West total Mar 2021 Feb 2021- 5.1 4.8 5.0 3.5 4.0 3.8 13 Apr 2021 Source: ONS, Labour Force Survey
Unemployment and economic inactivity The Annual Population Survey (APS) provides survey based estimates Economic inactivity and unemployment, year to of the number of unemployed and economically inactive people in the December 2020 region. Economic activity differs from unemployment in that to qualify as unemployed, an individual must have been actively searching for work for the past 4 weeks, and be willing and able to start a new job in the next 2 26,800 weeks. Examples of economically inactive people include stay at home 35,400 parents, people with disabilities that prevent them from working, the long-term sick, and early retirees. Some economically inactive people want a job, but are not classified as unemployed. There are a variety of reasons that this can be the case, including having care responsibilities or health conditions that prevent individuals who want to work from working. Some key points that can be drawn from the West of England data include: • The majority of those aged 16-64 who are economically inactive in the 89,500 West of England do not want a job. • 62,000 people in the West of England are classified as either unemployed or economically inactive but wanting a job. • More people are economically inactive but want a job than Economically inactive who want a job Economically inactive who do not want a job unemployed. Unemployed Source: ONS, Annual Population Survey 14
Indices of Multiple Deprivation – Employment and Education Indices of multiple deprivation (IMD) are widely-used datasets within Employment deprivation compared across England the UK to classify the relative deprivation (essentially a measure of LSOAs in top poverty) of small areas. Multiple indices of deprivation are provided, Local Authority LSOAs in top 20% 10% reflecting types of deprivation, which can compiled into a single score of deprivation. Bath and North East Somerset 5 1 The employment and education indices are particularly interesting from a Bristol, City of 65 33 labour market perspective. North Somerset 20 13 Employment South Gloucestershire 4 0 Every local authority in the West of England LEP has some lower super output areas that fall in the top 20% most deprived nationally, in terms of Education deprivation compared across England employment deprivation. Bristol has the significant majority, although North Somerset also has a relatively high number. LSOAs in top LSOAs in top Local Authority 20% 10% Education Every local authority in the West of England LEP has some lower super Bath and North East Somerset 11 7 output areas that fall in the top 20% and top 10% most deprived Bristol, City of 59 40 nationally, in terms of education deprivation. Bristol has the significant North Somerset 12 7 majority at both levels. South Gloucestershire 18 6 Deprivation by ward, showing how many LSOAs fall into the most deprived by ward level, is available in the appendix. Source: Indices of Multiple Deprivation , how these indices are calculated can be found here 15
Salaries over time Salaries in the West of England LEP are slightly higher than the national average. In 2020 the West of England average Median Earnings, £ per annum salary was £26,662 for all workers, 2.3% higher than the national 29,000 average. 28,000 For full-time workers, the average salary was £32,442, and for part time it was £11,790. 27,000 Full-time working males earned, on average, £7,413 a year more than full-time working females. 26,000 Males in the West of England LEP also earned slightly more 25,000 than the national average (3.1%). This is was true for females also, but to a lesser extent (0.7%) 24,000 Female Male 23,000 Median Salary West of Difference to Difference to England LEP, Difference to the National the National 22,000 Date National Average Average Average 2014 1.5% 1.2% 2.0% 21,000 2015 3.7% 1.5% 3.0% 2016 1.3% -0.3% 3.2% 20,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2017 -2.4% -3.2% 1.9% West of England LEP Bath and North East Somerset 2018 -0.8% -0.1% 1.3% Bristol, City of North Somerset 2019 0.1% 0.0% 1.5% South Gloucestershire England 2020 2.3% -0.9% 1.4% 16 Source: ONS, ASHE
Zero-hours contracts In the South West, 3.4% of people aged 16 and over were on zero-hour contracts in January to March 2021. The is the highest rate of all of the regions. Percentage of people on 0 hours contracts, January to March 2021 Such employees are vulnerable during recessions as employers can more easily reduce these employees’ hours to 0. 4.0 3.5 UK, number of people in 0 hours contacts, Jan – Mar 2021, by 3.0 occupational group % in 2.5 Occupational Classification Number of people employment Managers, directors and senior officials 16 0.5 2.0 Professional occupations 119 1.4 1.5 Associate professional and technical occupations 63 1.3 1.0 Administrative and secretarial occupations 49 1.4 0.5 Skilled trades occupations 51 1.8 Caring, leisure and other service 0.0 occupations 159 6.2 Sales and customer service occupations 86 3.8 Process, plant and machine operatives 93 4.1 Elementary occupations 245 9.1 Total 857 2.6 Source: ONS Zero-hour contract analysis, based on LFS 17 *Due to methodological changes, it is not possible to compare these rates to historic rates
Labour market: Residents have accessed furlough and self- employment income support schemes ▪ As of 31 March 2021, 69,700 West of England employees were estimated to be on furlough, representing around West of England 13.1% of those eligible. This is down on the 14.7% rate for Estimated furlough rate (%) February 2021 for the region and compares to an 18 estimated take-up rate of 14.3% for the UK. 16 14 ▪ An estimated 200,500 employments have been cumulatively supported by the Coronavirus Job Retention 12 Scheme (furlough) in the region. 10 8 ▪ As of 31 January 2021, 120,000 claims have been made on the Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS) by 6 West of England residents, amounting to £341.8m. This 4 includes the first, second, and third tranches of the 2 scheme. ▪ First tranche: 44,100 claims (£132.7m) 0 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 ▪ Second tranche: 39,600 claims (£103.2m) ▪ Third tranche: 36,300 claims (£105.9m) Source: HMRC Coronavirus statistics 18
Self Employed Income Support Scheme – Tranche 3 The SEISS supports self-employed individuals and is run in tranches, Claim by sector, South West with windows within which individuals can apply for grants. Due to the way data is received, it is only possible to conduct sector analyses on individual tranches of the SEISS. This analysis looks at Unknown and other tranche 3, for which claims were up to the 31st of January 2021. Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles… As of 31st January 2021, 1,903,000 claims had been made to the Transportation and storage SEISS tranche 3. 36,300 of these were in the West of England LEP. Real estate activities Claims by sector is available at a South West level. Public administration and defence; compulsory social… Construction is the largest sector in terms of both number of Professional, scientific and technical activities claims and the total value of claims. The South West construction Other service activities sector contributed slightly less to the total number of claims than the England average (31% of claims compared to 35% of claims). Manufacturing Information and communication In terms in the total financial value of claims, the South West construction sector also contributed less than the England average Human health and social work activities (38% of total value of claims compared to 42%). Financial and insurance activities Other sectors with a high number of claims are: Education ▪ Administrative and support service activities Construction Arts, entertainment and recreation ▪ Other services Agriculture, forestry and fishing ▪ Transport and storage Administrative and support service activities ▪ Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles Accommodation and food service activities Many claims are not categorised by sector and fall into Unknown 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% and other, which reflects the broad nature of self-employed work. England propotion of total claims SW proportion of total claims Source: HMRC Self Employed Income Support Scheme Statistics, January 2021 Data up to 31/01/2021 Covers only Tranche 3 claims 19
Self Employed Income Support Scheme by gender Number of claims and average claim value, by gender Males make up a greater proportion of Self Employed Income Support £ Claims Scheme (SEISS) tranche 3 claimants than females – for the West of England LEP, males comprise of 69.1% of claims to the 31st of January 2021. 12000 4000 This is likely to be driven by the sectors males are more likely to work 3500 in, such as construction, which also operates with a high volume of self- 10000 employed people. 3000 The average claim made to the scheme is also higher for males than 8000 females. The greatest difference is in South Gloucestershire, which 2500 has the highest average male claim and, along with Bristol, the lowest average female claim, at £3,400 and £2,300 respectively. 6000 2000 1500 4000 Average Number of Average Number of claim claims claim 1000 LA claims male male female female 2000 500 Bristol, City of (UA) 11100 3000 4400 2300 0 0 Bath and North East Bristol, City of (UA) Bath and North East North Somerset UA South Gloucestershire Somerset UA 3700 3300 2000 2400 Somerset UA UA Number of claims male North Somerset UA 4300 3300 2200 2400 Number of claims female Average value of claims made to 31/01/21 for male population (£) Average claim female South Gloucestershire UA 6000 3400 2500 2300 Source: HMRC Self Employed Income Support Scheme Statistics, January 2021 Data up to 31/01/2021 20 Tranche 3 only
CURRENT LABOUR MARKET DEMAND
Job postings ▪ According to burning-glass analysis tool, there were 15,315 unique Job Postings Over Time (West of England) job postings advertised in the West of England in May 2021, up 18,000 121.1% on the April 2020 year low of 6,924, suggesting significant 16,000 recovery in terms of available jobs. 14,000 12,000 ▪ The impact of changes in number of jobs available as a result of lockdown measures and social distancing became visible in April, 10,000 with significantly fewer jobs advertised. This has risen in last few 8,000 months and is now broadly in line with pre-crises levels. 6,000 4,000 ▪ Comparing the type of jobs advertised by industry, the recovery 2,000 has in part been driven by increases in the number of postings in 0 IT jobs, as well as human health and social care. Moderate recoveries have also been seen in most sectors, although many are not yet at pre-pandemic levels. Top Occupations in May 2021 (West of England) ▪ Programmers and software development professionals (713) Job postings levels and associated analytics are highly sensitive to the ▪ Sales related occupations (464) web-scraping tool used. Sensitivity analysis has been undertaken and, although levels differ between tools, trends over time are similar – ▪ Nurse (431) analysing trends rather than totals is therefore advised. ▪ Other administrative occupations (410) ▪ Managers and proprietors in other services (394) Source: Labour Insight (BurningGlass) 22
Remote working Remote working has slowly being growing as in the last few years, in line with economic predictions of a more digitally connected workforce. This trend has been accelerated by COVID. The graph below shows job postings from West of England LEP based employers that are remote roles (excluding recruitment agencies, as they may post remote jobs from other regions). Since March 2021, the number of jobs with ‘remote’ in the description has slightly decreased, in line with COVID restrictions easing. West of England Job postings including word 'remote' 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Source: Labour Insight (BurningGlass) 23
Skills demand In terms of skills demand, teamwork/ collaboration and customer service are the most frequently demanded skills in job adverts, cited in 15.7% and 14.7% of adverts respectively. Financial skills (budgeting and accounting) and healthcare Frequency in Job Postings (% of related skills are frequently demanded. Other business related Skills (May 2021) total postings) skills are also frequently demanded, such as business development, project management and stakeholder management. Teamwork / Collaboration 15.7% ‘Soft’ and general employability skills are frequently mentioned in vacancies (for example Teamwork/ Collaboration) Customer Service 14.7% theses are often transferrable between sectors and jobs. This highlights their importance for those out of work. Budgeting 10.7% Many skills fall somewhere in the middle between hard and soft. For example, Project Management is a frequently sought after skill, which draws on a combination of soft skills and hard, Project Management 8.7% subject specific knowledge. Teaching 8.7% Note: Web-scraping data (Labour Insight) gives us an indication Sales 8.6% of skills demand from job adverts. Given that jobs with higher turnover (for example, hospitality) recruit more often due to Accounting 6.0% churn in roles, this should be treated indicatively only. Business Development 6.0% Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) 5.7% * Out of a total of 15,315 postings Source: Labour Insight (BurningGlass) 24
Transferrable and commonly sought Skills From the evidence available, demand appears to be Top Occupations Advertised (May 2021) strong for individuals with technology skills, as well as skills in healthcare, and business. Frequency in Job Postings (% of Many more traditional, more vocational roles also experience demand, such as those in healthcare, Skills (May 2021) total postings) teaching assistants and education professionals and carers. Key areas of high-demand skills include: Programmers and software development professionals (1) STEM subjects – these are the basis of many 713 technological jobs. Sales related occupations (2) Digital/technology skills – these are applicable both 464 within the important and resilient IT, creative and digital sectors, as well as in a variety of other jobs Nurse 431 such as finance and investment roles. (3) Business skills – business related skills such as sales Other administrative and management are applicable across industry and occupations see consistent demand. 410 (4) Specific vocations – training for specific jobs currently in demand (based on evidence), for Managers and proprietors in example warehouse operatives and HGV drivers, other services care workers, teachers and nurses. 394 Source: Emsi Economic Modelling 25
Apprenticeships Adverts with the word ‘apprenticeship’ experienced a spike in postings leading up to July in the years 2017, 2018 and 2019, in line with the end of the academic year. In 2020, we have seen the opposite happen, with a downward trend in postings. This has started to reverse in the months since August, with increases in postings seen every month since. Sector groups have highlighted the difficulties they are facing regarding keeping on current apprentices, hiring new ones, and the trade offs between both. (Note – totals are not comparable to other job postings slides, as a different software is used to obtain apprenticeship postings). Source: Labour Insight (BurningGlass) 26
APPENDIX
Regional Specialisms Location The West of England has some specialist industries, which Industry Quotient % ofGVA 2020 Jobs % Total of GVA Vehicle and employ more people proportionally than the national Defence average, as show by the Location Quotient (LQ). For example, Technology 1.73 4.30% 10240 2.66% Education and Vehicle and Defence Technology has an LQ of 1.73, meaning Knowledge this industry is 1.73 larger than the UK average for an area of Creation Civil Engineering 1.44 1.41 0.50% 0.12% 19105 23016 3.10% 4.79% the same size. Government 1.37 6.43% 37309 5.83% Printing and Publishing 1.34 5.18% 5196 0.59% Looking at this alongside the proportion of GVA these Financial and industries deliver, we can see some areas of specialisation Legal Services 1.33 0.21% 36406 8.52% Creative 1.28 0.77% 10607 1.77% that deliver a significant proportion of the GVA, for example: Metalworking Technology 1.26 0.37% 3332 0.46% • Civil Engineering Local Environmental Services 1.14 2.90% 3134 0.67% • Education and Knowledge Creation Passenger Transport 1.14 0.06% 3466 0.42% • Creative Utility 1.13 9.67% 4334 3.23% Commercial Services 1.06 3.80% 50165 6.40% • Financial and Legal Services Food and Beverage 1.04 0.56% 64253 5.47% Hazardous • Digital Materials and Waste 1.04 0.54% 553 0.12% Property Development 1.03 2.91% 21522 7.84% Digital 1.03 0.38% 21397 4.12% Health and Care 1.01 4.94% 64894 6.26% Construction Products and Services 1 4.92% 938 0.16% 28 Source: EMSI ‘Strength Finder’ Tool, based on ONS ASHE and BRES Data
Wages in specialist areas Difference between sector specialism The West of England LEP’s specialist industries average wage and vary in terms of their average pay profile. National jobs growth Average wage (West of regional average wage Some, such as vehicle and defence technology, Sector Specialism % (2019-2020) England, 2019) (for all jobs) pay more than the regional average wage (22%) Vehicle and Defence and some less, such as printing and publishing Technology 0% £41,379 22% (-38%). Education and Knowledge Creation 2% £33,721 4% Civil Engineering 2% £37,829 14% Government 4% £27,593 -18% Printing and Publishing 1% £23,479 -38% Financial and Legal Services -1% £34,556 6% Creative 3% £30,233 -7% Metalworking Technology 2% £31,882 -2% Local Environmental Services 1% £28,815 -13% Passenger Transport 2% £36,655 11% Source: EMSI ‘Strength Finder’ Tool, based on ONS ASHE and BRES Data 29
Employment Rate – Time Series • The employment rate has remained broadly stable since Percentage of West of England LEP residents aged 16-64 March 2017. currently employed 84 • Males have a consistently higher employment rate than females, but the gap has decreased in size since March 2017. 82 • The impact of COVID does not appear to be showing in the employment rates. This is possibly due to sample size and 80 the fact that it is a ‘year to date’ measure so could flatten trends. 78 Date (12 months to) Residents 16-64 Male 16-64 Female 16-64 Apr 2016-Mar 2017 78 80.7 75.2 Jul 2016-Jun 2017 78.2 81.2 75.3 76 Oct 2016-Sep 2017 78.5 81.7 75.3 Jan 2017-Dec 2017 78.6 82.1 75.1 74 Apr 2017-Mar 2018 78.1 81.5 74.6 Jul 2017-Jun 2018 78.9 82.2 75.5 72 Oct 2017-Sep 2018 78.4 81.1 75.6 Jan 2018-Dec 2018 79.1 81.6 76.5 Apr 2018-Mar 2019 79.5 82.5 76.4 70 Jul 2018-Jun 2019 79.4 82 76.7 Oct 2018-Sep 2019 79.7 82.3 77 Jan 2019-Dec 2019 78.8 81.3 76.3 Apr 2019-Mar 2020 79 80.7 77.2 Jul 2019-Jun 2020 78.6 80.9 76.2 Oct 2019-Sep 2020 78.7 80.7 76.6 Residents 16-64 Male 16-64 Female 16-64 Jan 2020 - Dec 2020 79.7 82.1 77.2 Source: ONS Annual Population Survey 30
Employment Rate • In the year to December 2020, the employment rate for the Employed Rate West of England was 79.7%; higher than the national rate of Group 76.0%. All - aged 50+ 182,900 44.6 • Working age males had an employment rate of 80.7%, 4.1 All - aged 16-24 83,100 60.4 percentage points greater than the rate for working age females. All - aged 16-64 594,400 79.7 • COVID is expected to reduce the employment rate, but the sample size of the Annual Population Survey as well as its Males - aged 50+ 92,600 47.4 ‘year to date’ measurement of the data is thought to be stopping this showing significantly at a regional level Males - aged 16-24 44,500 60.5 Males - aged 16-64 306,300 80.7 Females - aged 50+ 90,400 42.2 Female - aged 16-24 38,600 60.4 Females - aged 16-64 283,900 77.2 Source: ONS Annual Population Survey 2021 31
Employment Rate – Jan 2020- Dec 2020 Bath and South West of North East Bristol, City Gloucestersh Group England LEP Somerset of ire England Employment rate - aged 16-64 79.7 82.0 77.1 81.7 75.7 Employment rate - aged 50+ 44.6 43.2 47.2 44.8 42.5 Employment rate - aged 16-24 60.4 64.2 55.4 63.9 52.5 Employment rate males - aged 16-64 82.1 87.3 79.4 83.0 79.1 Employment rate males - aged 50+ 47.3 46.9 48.5 47.0 46.7 Employment rate males - aged 16-24 60.5 68.1 57.7 59.9 51.7 Employment rate females - aged 16-64 77.2 76.2 74.6 80.5 72.3 Employment rate females - aged 50+ 42.2 39.9 45.9 42.8 38.7 Employment rate females - aged 16-24 60.4 60.2 52.9 68.8 53.3 Source: ONS Annual Population Survey; Note: All data relates covers the 12 month period up to December 2020 32
Claimants Aged 16-24 As of May 2021 there were 6,450 claimants aged between Percentage of residents 16-24 claiming unemployment related 16—24; 4.2% of the population in that age cohort. benefits This is down on the August 2020 peak of 5.2% (or 7,940 8.0 claimants) and is the lowest rate seen since March 2020, however still represents an increase of 127% since then, 7.0 equating to an additional 3,610 young claimants. All four unitary authorities in the West of England have seen 6.0 a spike in the number of young claimants; ranging from 2.7% of the cohort in Bath and North East Somerset to 5.6% in 5.0 North Somerset. Despite the sharp increase in ‘young’ claimants, the rate in 4.0 the West of England and the four unitary authority remains below the national rate of 6.7%. 3.0 May 2021 Count % of age group 2.0 B&NES 880 2.7 1.0 Bristol 3,335 4.6 N.Som 1,015 0.0 5.6 November February May 2019 August November February May 2020 August November February May 2021 S.Glos 1,220 2018 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2021 4.1 West of England 6,450 4.2 England 399,830 B&NES Bristol North Somerset South Gloucestershire West of England England 6.7 33
Claimants Aged 50+ As of May 2021 there were 7,225 claimants aged 50+; Percentage of residents 50+ claiming unemployment related 3.6% of the population in that age cohort. benefits This 0.4 percentage points lower than the May and August 6.0 2020 peaks, however represents an increase of 102% ‘older’ claimants since March 2020, equating to an additional 3,650 people. 5.0 All four unitary authorities in the West of England have seen a spike in the number of ‘older’ claimants; ranging from 2.4% 4.0 of the cohort South Gloucestershire to 5.2% in Bristol. The rate of ‘older’ claimants in the West of England remains 3.0 below the national rate of 4.8%; however the rate in Bristol exceeds the national rate. May 2021 Count % of age group 2.0 B&NES 1,170 3.4 1.0 Bristol 3,415 5.2 N.Som 1,340 3.1 0.0 S.Glos 1,300 2.4 November February May 2019 August November February May 2020 August November February May 2021 2018 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2021 West of England 7,225 3.6 B&NES Bristol North Somerset South Gloucestershire West of England England England 513,155 4.8 34
Indices of Multiple Deprivation – education deprivation Local Authority District name (2019) Ward LSOA in Ward 20% LSOA in Ward 10% Bath and North East Somerset Combe Down 1 1 Bath and North East Somerset Keynsham North 1 0 Bath and North East Somerset Keynsham South 1 0 Bath and North East Somerset Peasedown 1 1 Bath and North East Somerset Radstock 1 0 Bath and North East Somerset Southdown 1 1 Bath and North East Somerset Twerton 4 4 Bath and North East Somerset Westfield 1 0 Bristol, City of Ashley 2 0 Bristol, City of Filwood 9 7 Bristol, City of Frome Vale 1 1 Bristol, City of Hartcliffe and Withywood 12 12 Bristol, City of Henbury and Brentry 3 2 Bristol, City of Hengrove and Whitchurch Park 5 2 Bristol, City of Hillfields 3 1 Bristol, City of Horfield 1 0 Bristol, City of Knowle 3 3 Bristol, City of Lawrence Hill 7 5 Bristol, City of Lockleaze 2 2 Bristol, City of Southmead 5 3 35
Indices of Multiple Deprivation – education deprivation cont. Local Authority District name (2019) Ward LSOA in Ward 20% LSOA in Ward 10% Bristol, City of St George Central 2 0 Bristol, City of Stockwood 2 2 Bristol, City of Stoke Bishop 1 0 Bristol, City of Windmill Hill 1 0 North Somerset Weston-super-Mare Central 2 1 North Somerset Weston-super-Mare Mid Worle 1 0 North Somerset Weston-super-Mare Milton 2 0 North Somerset Weston-super-Mare South 6 6 North Somerset Weston-super-Mare Winterstoke 1 0 South Gloucestershire Dodington 1 0 South Gloucestershire Emersons Green 1 0 South Gloucestershire Kings Chase 2 1 South Gloucestershire Oldland Common 1 0 South Gloucestershire Parkwall 2 2 South Gloucestershire Patchway 3 1 South Gloucestershire Rodway 3 0 South Gloucestershire Staple Hill 2 1 South Gloucestershire Thornbury South and Alveston 1 0 South Gloucestershire Yate Central 1 0 South Gloucestershire Yate North 1 1 36
Indices of Multiple Deprivation – employment deprivation LSOA in Local Authority District name (2019) Ward LSOA in Ward 20% Ward 10% Bath and North East Somerset Combe Down 1 0 Bath and North East Somerset Southdown 1 0 Bath and North East Somerset Twerton 3 1 Bristol, City of Ashley 2 0 Bristol, City of Avonmouth and Lawrence Weston 5 2 Bristol, City of Bishopsworth 1 0 Bristol, City of Brislington East 2 0 Bristol, City of Brislington West 1 1 Bristol, City of Central 2 2 Bristol, City of Easton 1 0 Bristol, City of Eastville 2 0 Bristol, City of Filwood 7 4 Bristol, City of Frome Vale 2 1 Bristol, City of Hartcliffe and Withywood 11 9 Bristol, City of Henbury and Brentry 2 1 Bristol, City of Hengrove and Whitchurch Park 3 1 Bristol, City of Hillfields 2 1 37
Indices of Multiple Deprivation – employment deprivation cont. Local Authority District name (2019) Ward LSOA in Ward 20% LSOA in Ward 10% Bristol, City of Horfield 1 0 Bristol, City of Knowle 2 2 Bristol, City of Lawrence Hill 7 6 Bristol, City of Lockleaze 2 0 Bristol, City of Southmead 4 1 Bristol, City of Southville 1 0 Bristol, City of St George Central 2 0 Bristol, City of Stockwood 2 2 Bristol, City of Stoke Bishop 1 0 Weston-super-Mare North Somerset Central 6 5 Weston-super-Mare North Somerset Hillside 2 2 Weston-super-Mare Mid North Somerset Worle 1 0 Weston-super-Mare North Somerset Milton 3 0 Weston-super-Mare North Somerset North Worle 1 0 Weston-super-Mare North Somerset South 7 6 South Gloucestershire Kings Chase 1 0 South Gloucestershire Patchway 1 0 South Gloucestershire Staple Hill 2 0 38
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