LABOUR MARKET INTELLIGENCE PACK - JUNE 2021 - West of England Combined Authority

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LABOUR MARKET INTELLIGENCE PACK - JUNE 2021 - West of England Combined Authority
LABOUR MARKET INTELLIGENCE
PACK

                             JUNE 2021
LABOUR MARKET INTELLIGENCE PACK - JUNE 2021 - West of England Combined Authority
Introduction
This document collates evidence about the labour market
in the West of England, highlighting the current challenges
posed by the COVID pandemic as well as identifying longer-
term issues. The analysis looks at the characteristics and    Contents
spatial distribution of the labour force, and business and
employer demand. It covers both short and long term           This document is split into the
Labour Market Intelligence and provides interpretation        following sections:
around the available data.

Geography                                                     Section                Page
The document refers to the West of England region. This is    Business Environment   4
taken to mean the West of England Local Enterprise
Partnership area, which is made up of four unitary
authorities:                                                  Unemployment,          10
                                                              Employment and
▪ Bath and North East Somerset                                Redundancy
▪ Bristol
                                                              Current Labour         21
▪ North Somerset                                              Market Demand
▪ South Gloucestershire

                                                                                                2
LABOUR MARKET INTELLIGENCE PACK - JUNE 2021 - West of England Combined Authority
Summary
This section summarises results from the rest of the report.

Business Environment                                                          Current Labour Market Demand
▪     The West of England has a broad sector base with a variety of           ▪ Job posting data indicates that levels in May 2021 were similar to
      businesses based in the region.                                           those seen pre-pandemic, and postings were up 121.1% on the year
                                                                                low of April 2020. There has been a shift in the type of jobs
▪     The West of England has some specialist industries that make up a         advertised. Gains in recent months were partly driven by strong
      larger proportion of employment than the UK average, such as              increases in postings in both the IT and human health and social care
      Civil Engineering, Education and Knowledge Creation, Creative,            sector.
      Financial and Legal Services, and Digital. The impact of the
      economic downturn caused by the COVID pandemic is expected to           ▪ The most frequently demanded jobs advertised May 2021 were:
      vary between sectors.                                                     Programmers and software development professionals (713), Sales
                                                                                related occupations (464), Nurse (431), Other administrative
Unemployment, Employment and Redundancy                                         occupations (410) and Managers and proprietors in other services
                                                                                (394).
                                                                              ▪ Thematic areas of skills demand:
▪     As of May 2021, 4.6% of working age population in the West of
      England were claiming unemployment benefits (34,100                     (1) STEM subjects – these are the basis of many technological jobs.
      residents). This is 0.3 percentage points lower than the rate seen in
      April 2021 and the lowest rate seen since April 2020.                   (2) Digital/technology skills – these are applicable both within the
                                                                                  important and resilient IT, creative and digital sectors, as well as in
                                                                                  a variety of other jobs such as finance and investment roles.
▪     The Labour Force Survey confirms unemployment increased in the          (3) Business skills – business related skills such as sales and
      South West region through most of 2020, although rates have been            management are applicable across industry and see consistent
      falling since December 2020. Until the 3 months to March 2021,              demand.
      males had a higher unemployment rate than females, until the male
      rate dropped below that of females. The region has a lower              (4) Specific vocations – training for specific jobs currently in demand
      unemployment rate than England as a whole, at 3.8% regionally               (based on evidence), for example warehouse operatives and HGV
      compared to 5.0% nationally.                                                drivers, care workers, teachers and nurses.

    Sources: See corresponding later sections.                                                                                                          3
LABOUR MARKET INTELLIGENCE PACK - JUNE 2021 - West of England Combined Authority
BUSINESS
ENVIRONMENT
LABOUR MARKET INTELLIGENCE PACK - JUNE 2021 - West of England Combined Authority
Businesses in the West of
England
Business concentration                                                                  Business size
There are 46,275 businesses in the West of England. That                                Individuals in the Labour Market are often unaware that
is 400 businesses per 10,000 residents. This is below the                               78% of businesses in the West of England have fewer than five
UK average and in the middle of comparator areas.                                       employees. The results below are similar to those for the UK
                                                                                        overall (78.5%)
Number of businesses per 10,000 people (2020)
                                                                                        Employee size of businesses in the West of England (2019)

                                London                                          593

        Cambridgeshire and Peterborough                                   432

                                     UK                               412

                        West of England                              400

                    Greater Manchester                              369

                          West Midlands                       311

                   Sheffield City Region                    280

                   Liverpool City Region                    277

                            Tees Valley                    261

                                                                                                                                                                        5
                                           Source: ONS Annual Population Survey via NOMIS; Office for National Statistics (ONS) Business; Activity, Size and Location
LABOUR MARKET INTELLIGENCE PACK - JUNE 2021 - West of England Combined Authority
Volume employers in the region
The West of England has some volume employers with over 1,000 employees, including:

                                                                                      6
Employment by sector
In 2019, the largest employing           Employment by sector (% of total) (2019)
sectors within the West of
England LEP were:

•    Wholesale and retail trade;
     repair of motor vehicles and
     motorcycles (14% of all jobs
     in the region)

•    Human health and social
     work activities (13% of all
     jobs in the region)

•    Professional, Scientific and
     Technical Activities (11% of
     all jobs in the region)

Source: ONS Business Register and Employment Survey via NOMIS                       7
Regional Specialisms & Growth Areas
The West of England has some specialist industries, which employ more people                                                National jobs   Average Wage
in the region proportionally than the national average. The adjacent table            Sector              Location          growth % (2019- (West of England,
highlights the sectors where we have employment specialisms, alongside                Specialism          Quotient          2020)           2019)
whether these sectors are growing or shrinking nationally. This helps us              Vehicle and
understand where there are growth opportunities, and where there may be a
                                                                                      Defence
future skills demand; or if a current specialism is at risk due to industry
contraction. This is particularly relevant during the current pandemic where          Technology                     1.73                 0%               £41,379
COVID has altered or accelerated certain trends.                                      Education and
                                                                                      Knowledge
Key points:                                                                           Creation                       1.44                 2%               £33,721

•   Civil Engineering is a strength and is growing nationally, as is creative. Both   Civil Engineering              1.41                 2%               £37,829
    are strong contributors to GVA.                                                   Government                     1.37                 4%               £27,593
•   The West of England has more jobs in Education and Knowledge Creation             Printing and
    (proportionally to the size of its working age population) than the UK            Publishing                     1.34                 1%               £23,479
    average, with 1.44 jobs in this sector for every one nationally.
                                                                                      Financial and
•   Given its engineering specialisms, the West of England could have                 Legal Services                 1.33                 -1%              £34,556
    opportunities in both Precision Technology and Maritime sectors, which it
    currently has a below average number of employees in.                             Creative                       1.28                 3%               £30,233

For more information, see the ‘Regional Specialisms’ slide in the appendix.           Metalworking
                                                                                      Technology                     1.26                 2%               £31,882
                                                                                      Local
                                                                                      Environmental
                                                                                      Services                       1.14                 1%               £28,815
                                                                                      Passenger
Source: EMSI ‘Strength Finder’ Tool, based on ONS ASHE and BRES Data                  Transport                      1.14                 2%               £36,655
                                                                                                                                                       8
Future Trends: Pre-pandemic Predictions
          Shape of the UK Labour Market 2017 – 2027
          Working Futures provides a comprehensive and detailed model of the UK labour market and skills needs. It projects the future size and shape of the labour
          market by considering employment prospects by industry, occupation, qualification level, gender and employment status.

                                               Areas of growth                       Areas of Decline                      Impact of COVID
          Sectoral trends in employment        • Business Services including         •   Distribution                      • Areas of growth are still considered
                                                 professional and scientific         •   Manufacturing                       accurate
                                               • Health & Social Care                •   Finance and Insurance             • Distribution and construction are no
                                                                                     •   Construction                        longer likely to decline in the short
                                                                                     •   Public Admin                        term, due to policy and demand
                                                                                                                             changes
          Occupational trends                  • Caring and professional service     • Secretarial Occupations             • Growth in caring and professional
                                               • Corporate managers and              • Plant, Process and Machine            service is likely accelerated
                                                 directors                             Operatives                          • Declining areas could experience
                                               • Business and public service         • Skilled Metal and Electronic          accelerated decline, although the
                                                 associate professionals               Trades                                future of manufacturing remains
                                                                                                                             uncertain
          Replacement Demand – natural         Replacement demand amongst all                                              • In the immediate future,
          churn and movement within            occupational groups is expected to                                            replacement demand is expected to
          sectors.                             generate 7 times more job                                                     be less strong than predicted
                                               opportunities than growth                                                   • Economic downturn and extensive
                                                                                                                             uncertainty make it less likely for
                                                                                                                             individuals to leave their work and
                                                                                                                             seek new employment

                                                                                                                                                            9
Source: Working Futures 2017 - 2027
UNEMPLOYMENT,
EMPLOYMENT
AND
REDUNDANCY
Economic Sectors

The chart below shows the impact on Gross Value Added (GVA) of certain sectors of the economy at a UK level. Almost all sectors have experienced a
drop in economic output since February 2020, but some have been more adversely impacted than others. Since the reopening of the economy over the
summer of 2020 most sectors have not been so adversely effected by subsequent lockdowns; however accommodation and food services continue to be
more negatively impacted, although increases in output were seen in April following the partial reopening of businesses.
                                                      Monthly GVA change for various sectors from February 2020
                             120

                             100

                              80

                              60

                              40

                              20

                               0
                                   2020 FEB 2020 MAR 2020 APR 2020 MAY 2020 JUN 2020 JUL 2020 AUG 2020 SEP 2020 OCT2020 NOV 2020 DEC 2021 JAN 2021 FEB 2021 MAR 2021 APR

                                                 Wholesale, retail & motors            Other services                        Accomodation & food
                                                 Financial & insurance                 Arts, entertainment & recreation      Manufacturing
                                                 Construction                          Baseline

Source: ONS GDP estimates, February 2021                                                                                                                                   11
Claimant Count
As of May 2021, 4.6% of working age population in the West
of England were claiming unemployment benefits (34,100
                                                                                        Percentage of Working Age Residents Claiming Unemployment
residents). This is 0.3 percentage points lower than the rate
seen in April 2021 and the lowest rate seen since April 2020.                                                Related Benefits
                                                                7.0
There are now 18,325 more claimants in the West of England
than there were in February 2020, before the effects of the     6.0
pandemic hit.

The rate in the West of England remains below the national      5.0
rate of 6.1% for May 2021. Bristol has the highest rate of
claimants within the LEP, at 5.8% of the working age
                                                                4.0
population.

May 2021                Count            % of working age       3.0

B&NES                            4,645                  3.7
                                                                2.0

Bristol                         18,255                  5.8

                                 5,195                  4.2     1.0
N.Som

S.Glos                           6,000                  3.4
                                                                0.0
                                                                  June 2019     September     December     March 2020     June 2020   September     December     March 2021
West of England                 34,100                  4.6                        2019          2019                                    2020         2020
                                                                              Bath and North East Somerset     Bristol, City of                   North Somerset
England                     2,148,130                   6.1                   South Gloucestershire             West of England                   England

                                                                                                                                                                       12
Labour Force Survey Unemployment
The Labour Force Survey (LFS) provides estimates on unemployment
in line with ILO definitions, which can provide a more robust picture                      Labour Force Survey: Percentage Unemployment Rate
of unemployment than the claimant count. It is only available at South
                                                                             6
West level.

The LFS unemployment rate steadily rose from the start of the COVID-
19 pandemic both nationally and in the South West, peaking around
                                                                             5
the end of 2020, and has seen falls in early 2021.

The SW region rate was consistently lower than the national rate for the
two years before COVID, and was 0.8 percentage points lower in January
                                                                             4
to March 2020. This gap has closed since the pandemic, but widened
again since the September – November period.

Between January to March 2020 and February to April 2021, the male
                                                                             3
rate of unemployment decreased by 0.3 percentage points in the South
West. The female rates rose by 1.2 percentage points and is the driver
behind the 0.5 increase for the total rate in the same period.
                                        South       South     South
                                                                             2
          England England England West              West      West
Date      male      female    total     male        female    total
Aug 2020-       5.5       4.8       5.2         5.5       3.6       4.6
Oct 2020
Sep 2020-       5.6       5.0       5.3         4.8      3.6       4.2       1
Nov 2020
Oct 2020-       5.6       5.1       5.4         4.6      4.4       4.5
Dec 2020
Nov 2020-       5.4       5.1       5.3         4.7      4.1       4.4       0
Jan 2021                                                                    Aug 2018-Oct Dec 2018-Feb Apr 2019-Jun Aug 2019-Oct Dec 2019-Feb Apr 2020-Jun Aug 2020-Oct Dec 2020-Feb
                                                                                2018         2019         2019         2019         2020         2020         2020         2021
Dec 2020-       5.3       4.9       5.1         4.5      3.9       4.2
Feb 2021                                                                                            England male            England female           England total
Jan 2021-       5.2       4.8       5.0         4.1      4.0       4.0                              South West male         South West female        South West total
Mar 2021
Feb 2021-       5.1       4.8       5.0         3.5      4.0       3.8                                                                                                      13
Apr 2021                                                                   Source: ONS, Labour Force Survey
Unemployment and economic
inactivity
The Annual Population Survey (APS) provides survey based estimates                            Economic inactivity and unemployment, year to
of the number of unemployed and economically inactive people in the                                          December 2020
region.

Economic activity differs from unemployment in that to qualify as
unemployed, an individual must have been actively searching for work for
the past 4 weeks, and be willing and able to start a new job in the next 2                                       26,800
weeks. Examples of economically inactive people include stay at home                                                                       35,400
parents, people with disabilities that prevent them from working, the
long-term sick, and early retirees.

Some economically inactive people want a job, but are not classified as
unemployed. There are a variety of reasons that this can be the case,
including having care responsibilities or health conditions that prevent
individuals who want to work from working.
Some key points that can be drawn from the West of England data
include:

• The majority of those aged 16-64 who are economically inactive in the                                                89,500
  West of England do not want a job.
• 62,000 people in the West of England are classified as either
  unemployed or economically inactive but wanting a job.
• More people are economically inactive but want a job than
                                                                                       Economically inactive who want a job     Economically inactive who do not want a job
  unemployed.
                                                                                       Unemployed

                                                                             Source: ONS, Annual Population Survey
                                                                                                                                                                  14
Indices of Multiple Deprivation –
Employment and Education
Indices of multiple deprivation (IMD) are widely-used datasets within                          Employment deprivation compared across England
the UK to classify the relative deprivation (essentially a measure of
                                                                                                                                                           LSOAs in top
poverty) of small areas. Multiple indices of deprivation are provided,          Local Authority                                       LSOAs in top 20%
                                                                                                                                                           10%
reflecting types of deprivation, which can compiled into a single score
of deprivation.
                                                                                Bath and North East Somerset                                           5                   1
The employment and education indices are particularly interesting from a
                                                                                Bristol, City of                                                      65                  33
labour market perspective.
                                                                                North Somerset                                                        20                  13
Employment                                                                      South Gloucestershire                                                  4                   0

Every local authority in the West of England LEP has some lower super
output areas that fall in the top 20% most deprived nationally, in terms of
                                                                                                   Education deprivation compared across England
employment deprivation. Bristol has the significant majority, although
North Somerset also has a relatively high number.                                                                                      LSOAs in top        LSOAs in top
                                                                                Local Authority
                                                                                                                                       20%                 10%
Education

Every local authority in the West of England LEP has some lower super           Bath and North East Somerset                                          11                  7
output areas that fall in the top 20% and top 10% most deprived                 Bristol, City of                                                      59                  40
nationally, in terms of education deprivation. Bristol has the significant      North Somerset                                                        12                  7
majority at both levels.
                                                                                South Gloucestershire                                                 18                  6
Deprivation by ward, showing how many LSOAs fall into the most
deprived by ward level, is available in the appendix.
                                                                              Source: Indices of Multiple Deprivation , how these indices are calculated can be found
                                                                              here
                                                                                                                                                                   15
Salaries over time
  Salaries in the West of England LEP are slightly higher than
  the national average. In 2020 the West of England average                                              Median Earnings, £ per annum
  salary was £26,662 for all workers, 2.3% higher than the national            29,000
  average.
                                                                               28,000
  For full-time workers, the average salary was £32,442, and for
  part time it was £11,790.
                                                                               27,000
  Full-time working males earned, on average, £7,413 a year
  more than full-time working females.                                         26,000

  Males in the West of England LEP also earned slightly more
                                                                               25,000
  than the national average (3.1%). This is was true for females
  also, but to a lesser extent (0.7%)
                                                                               24,000

                                             Female           Male             23,000
              Median Salary West of          Difference to    Difference to
              England LEP, Difference to     the National     the National
                                                                               22,000
Date          National Average               Average          Average
       2014                           1.5%             1.2%             2.0%
                                                                               21,000
       2015                           3.7%             1.5%             3.0%
       2016                           1.3%            -0.3%             3.2%   20,000
                                                                                         2014          2015            2016   2017          2018         2019       2020
       2017                          -2.4%            -3.2%             1.9%
                                                                                                    West of England LEP              Bath and North East Somerset
       2018                          -0.8%            -0.1%             1.3%
                                                                                                    Bristol, City of                 North Somerset
       2019                           0.1%             0.0%             1.5%
                                                                                                    South Gloucestershire            England
       2020                           2.3%            -0.9%             1.4%
                                                                                                                                                                    16
                                                                                Source: ONS, ASHE
Zero-hours contracts
In the South West, 3.4% of people aged 16 and over were on zero-hour contracts
in January to March 2021. The is the highest rate of all of the regions.                       Percentage of people on 0 hours contracts, January to
                                                                                                                   March 2021
Such employees are vulnerable during recessions as employers can more
easily reduce these employees’ hours to 0.                                         4.0

                                                                                   3.5
                                        UK, number of people in 0 hours
                                         contacts, Jan – Mar 2021, by              3.0
                                              occupational group
                                                                    % in           2.5
    Occupational Classification     Number of people                employment
Managers, directors and senior
officials                                                      16           0.5    2.0

Professional occupations                                      119           1.4
                                                                                   1.5
Associate professional and
technical occupations                                          63           1.3
                                                                                   1.0
Administrative and secretarial
occupations                                                    49           1.4
                                                                                   0.5
Skilled trades occupations                                     51           1.8
Caring, leisure and other service
                                                                                   0.0
occupations                                                   159           6.2
Sales and customer service
occupations                                                    86           3.8
Process, plant and machine
operatives                                                     93           4.1
Elementary occupations                                        245           9.1
Total                                                         857           2.6
                                                                                  Source: ONS Zero-hour contract analysis, based on LFS
                                                                                                                                                                          17
                                                                                  *Due to methodological changes, it is not possible to compare these rates to historic rates
Labour market: Residents have accessed furlough and self-
employment income support schemes
▪ As of 31 March 2021, 69,700 West of England employees
  were estimated to be on furlough, representing around                                        West of England
  13.1% of those eligible. This is down on the 14.7% rate for                             Estimated furlough rate (%)
  February 2021 for the region and compares to an               18
  estimated take-up rate of 14.3% for the UK.                   16

                                                                14
▪ An estimated 200,500 employments have been
  cumulatively supported by the Coronavirus Job Retention       12
  Scheme (furlough) in the region.                              10

                                                                 8
▪ As of 31 January 2021, 120,000 claims have been made on
  the Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS) by           6

  West of England residents, amounting to £341.8m. This          4
  includes the first, second, and third tranches of the
                                                                 2
  scheme.
     ▪ First tranche: 44,100 claims (£132.7m)                    0
                                                                     Jul-20   Aug-20   Sep-20   Oct-20   Nov-20   Dec-20   Jan-21   Feb-21   Mar-21
     ▪ Second tranche: 39,600 claims (£103.2m)
     ▪ Third tranche: 36,300 claims (£105.9m)

Source: HMRC Coronavirus statistics                                                                                                             18
Self Employed Income Support
Scheme – Tranche 3
The SEISS supports self-employed individuals and is run in tranches,                                                  Claim by sector, South West
with windows within which individuals can apply for grants. Due to
the way data is received, it is only possible to conduct sector
analyses on individual tranches of the SEISS. This analysis looks at                                              Unknown and other
tranche 3, for which claims were up to the 31st of January 2021.                 Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles…
As of 31st January 2021, 1,903,000 claims had been made to the                                            Transportation and storage
SEISS tranche 3. 36,300 of these were in the West of England LEP.                                               Real estate activities
Claims by sector is available at a South West level.                            Public administration and defence; compulsory social…

Construction is the largest sector in terms of both number of                         Professional, scientific and technical activities
claims and the total value of claims. The South West construction                                             Other service activities
sector contributed slightly less to the total number of claims than
the England average (31% of claims compared to 35% of claims).                                                          Manufacturing
                                                                                                     Information and communication
In terms in the total financial value of claims, the South West
construction sector also contributed less than the England average                           Human health and social work activities
(38% of total value of claims compared to 42%).                                                     Financial and insurance activities
Other sectors with a high number of claims are:                                                                             Education

▪   Administrative and support service activities                                                                        Construction
                                                                                                 Arts, entertainment and recreation
▪   Other services
                                                                                                     Agriculture, forestry and fishing
▪   Transport and storage                                                               Administrative and support service activities
▪   Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles                                  Accommodation and food service activities

Many claims are not categorised by sector and fall into Unknown                                                                           0%   5%     10%     15%    20%    25%     30%   35%   40%
and other, which reflects the broad nature of self-employed work.
                                                                                                         England propotion of total claims          SW proportion of total claims

    Source: HMRC Self Employed Income Support Scheme Statistics, January 2021
                                                                                                 Data up to 31/01/2021
                                                                                                 Covers only Tranche 3 claims
                                                                                                                                                                                    19
Self Employed Income Support
Scheme by gender
                                                                                            Number of claims and average claim value, by gender
Males make up a greater proportion of Self Employed Income Support                                                                                                                        £
                                                                             Claims
Scheme (SEISS) tranche 3 claimants than females – for the West of
England LEP, males comprise of 69.1% of claims to the 31st of January
2021.                                                                          12000                                                                                                4000

This is likely to be driven by the sectors males are more likely to work                                                                                                            3500
in, such as construction, which also operates with a high volume of self-      10000
employed people.
                                                                                                                                                                                    3000
The average claim made to the scheme is also higher for males than
                                                                                8000
females. The greatest difference is in South Gloucestershire, which                                                                                                                 2500
has the highest average male claim and, along with Bristol, the lowest
average female claim, at £3,400 and £2,300 respectively.
                                                                                6000                                                                                                2000

                                                                                                                                                                                    1500
                                                                                4000
                                       Average      Number of Average
                           Number of claim          claims    claim                                                                                                                 1000
LA                         claims male male         female    female
                                                                                2000
                                                                                                                                                                                    500
Bristol, City of (UA)           11100        3000        4400         2300

                                                                                      0                                                                                             0
Bath and North East                                                                       Bristol, City of (UA)   Bath and North East   North Somerset UA   South Gloucestershire
Somerset UA                      3700        3300        2000         2400                                           Somerset UA                                     UA
                                                                                             Number of claims male
North Somerset UA                4300        3300        2200         2400                   Number of claims female
                                                                                             Average value of claims made to 31/01/21 for male population (£)
                                                                                             Average claim female
South Gloucestershire UA         6000        3400        2500         2300
                                                                              Source: HMRC Self Employed Income Support Scheme Statistics, January 2021
Data up to 31/01/2021
                                                                                                                                                                                20
Tranche 3 only
CURRENT
LABOUR MARKET
DEMAND
Job postings
▪ According to burning-glass analysis tool, there were 15,315 unique                      Job Postings Over Time (West of England)
  job postings advertised in the West of England in May 2021, up              18,000
  121.1% on the April 2020 year low of 6,924, suggesting significant          16,000
  recovery in terms of available jobs.
                                                                              14,000

                                                                              12,000
▪ The impact of changes in number of jobs available as a result of
  lockdown measures and social distancing became visible in April,            10,000

  with significantly fewer jobs advertised. This has risen in last few         8,000
  months and is now broadly in line with pre-crises levels.                    6,000

                                                                               4,000
▪ Comparing the type of jobs advertised by industry, the recovery              2,000
  has in part been driven by increases in the number of postings in
                                                                                  0
  IT jobs, as well as human health and social care. Moderate
  recoveries have also been seen in most sectors, although many
  are not yet at pre-pandemic levels.
                                                                                       Top Occupations in May 2021 (West of England)
                                                                              ▪   Programmers and software development professionals (713)
   Job postings levels and associated analytics are highly sensitive to the   ▪   Sales related occupations (464)
   web-scraping tool used. Sensitivity analysis has been undertaken and,
   although levels differ between tools, trends over time are similar –       ▪   Nurse (431)
   analysing trends rather than totals is therefore advised.                  ▪   Other administrative occupations (410)
                                                                              ▪   Managers and proprietors in other services (394)

Source: Labour Insight (BurningGlass)                                                                                                    22
Remote working
Remote working has slowly being growing as in the last few years, in line with economic predictions of a more digitally connected
workforce. This trend has been accelerated by COVID. The graph below shows job postings from West of England LEP based employers
that are remote roles (excluding recruitment agencies, as they may post remote jobs from other regions). Since March 2021, the
number of jobs with ‘remote’ in the description has slightly decreased, in line with COVID restrictions easing.

                                        West of England Job postings including word 'remote'
2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

 800

 600

 400

 200

   0

Source: Labour Insight (BurningGlass)                                                                                       23
Skills demand
 In terms of skills demand, teamwork/ collaboration and
 customer service are the most frequently demanded skills in job
 adverts, cited in 15.7% and 14.7% of adverts respectively.
 Financial skills (budgeting and accounting) and healthcare                                                 Frequency in Job Postings (% of
 related skills are frequently demanded. Other business related       Skills (May 2021)                     total postings)
 skills are also frequently demanded, such as business
 development,       project    management    and    stakeholder
 management.
                                                                      Teamwork / Collaboration                                             15.7%
 ‘Soft’ and general employability skills are frequently
 mentioned in vacancies (for example Teamwork/ Collaboration)         Customer Service                                                     14.7%
 theses are often transferrable between sectors and jobs. This
 highlights their importance for those out of work.
                                                                      Budgeting                                                            10.7%
 Many skills fall somewhere in the middle between hard and
 soft. For example, Project Management is a frequently sought
 after skill, which draws on a combination of soft skills and hard,   Project Management                                                      8.7%
 subject specific knowledge.                                          Teaching                                                                8.7%
 Note: Web-scraping data (Labour Insight) gives us an indication      Sales                                                                   8.6%
 of skills demand from job adverts. Given that jobs with higher
 turnover (for example, hospitality) recruit more often due to        Accounting                                                              6.0%
 churn in roles, this should be treated indicatively only.

                                                                      Business Development                                                    6.0%

                                                                      Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)                                       5.7%
                                                                      * Out of a total of 15,315 postings
Source: Labour Insight (BurningGlass)                                                                                                 24
Transferrable and commonly sought
Skills
 From the evidence available, demand appears to be             Top Occupations Advertised (May 2021)
 strong for individuals with technology skills, as well as
 skills in healthcare, and business.
                                                                                             Frequency in Job Postings (% of
 Many more traditional, more vocational roles also
 experience demand, such as those in healthcare,               Skills (May 2021)             total postings)
 teaching assistants and education professionals and
 carers. Key areas of high-demand skills include:              Programmers and software
                                                               development professionals
 (1) STEM subjects – these are the basis of many                                                                                713
     technological jobs.
                                                               Sales related occupations
 (2) Digital/technology skills – these are applicable both                                                                      464
     within the important and resilient IT, creative and
     digital sectors, as well as in a variety of other jobs    Nurse
                                                                                                                                431
     such as finance and investment roles.
 (3) Business skills – business related skills such as sales   Other administrative
     and management are applicable across industry and         occupations
     see consistent demand.                                                                                                     410
 (4) Specific vocations – training for specific jobs
     currently in demand (based on evidence), for              Managers and proprietors in
     example warehouse operatives and HGV drivers,             other services
     care workers, teachers and nurses.                                                                                         394

Source: Emsi Economic Modelling
                                                                                                                           25
Apprenticeships
Adverts with the word ‘apprenticeship’ experienced a spike in postings leading up to July in the years 2017, 2018 and 2019, in line with
the end of the academic year. In 2020, we have seen the opposite happen, with a downward trend in postings. This has started to
reverse in the months since August, with increases in postings seen every month since.
Sector groups have highlighted the difficulties they are facing regarding keeping on current apprentices, hiring new ones, and the trade
offs between both.
(Note – totals are not comparable to other job postings slides, as a different software is used to obtain apprenticeship postings).

Source: Labour Insight (BurningGlass)                                                                                            26
APPENDIX
Regional Specialisms
                                                                                           Location
The West of England has some specialist industries, which              Industry            Quotient          % ofGVA           2020 Jobs           % Total of GVA
                                                                       Vehicle and
employ more people proportionally than the national                    Defence
average, as show by the Location Quotient (LQ). For example,           Technology                     1.73             4.30%               10240              2.66%
                                                                       Education and
Vehicle and Defence Technology has an LQ of 1.73, meaning              Knowledge
this industry is 1.73 larger than the UK average for an area of        Creation
                                                                       Civil Engineering
                                                                                                      1.44
                                                                                                      1.41
                                                                                                                       0.50%
                                                                                                                       0.12%
                                                                                                                                           19105
                                                                                                                                           23016
                                                                                                                                                              3.10%
                                                                                                                                                              4.79%
the same size.                                                         Government                     1.37             6.43%               37309              5.83%
                                                                       Printing and
                                                                       Publishing                     1.34             5.18%               5196               0.59%
Looking at this alongside the proportion of GVA these                  Financial and
industries deliver, we can see some areas of specialisation            Legal Services                 1.33             0.21%               36406              8.52%
                                                                       Creative                       1.28             0.77%               10607              1.77%
that deliver a significant proportion of the GVA, for example:         Metalworking
                                                                       Technology                     1.26             0.37%               3332               0.46%
•   Civil Engineering                                                  Local
                                                                       Environmental
                                                                       Services                       1.14             2.90%               3134               0.67%
•   Education and Knowledge Creation                                   Passenger
                                                                       Transport                      1.14             0.06%               3466               0.42%
•   Creative                                                           Utility                        1.13             9.67%               4334               3.23%
                                                                       Commercial
                                                                       Services                       1.06             3.80%               50165              6.40%
•   Financial and Legal Services                                       Food and
                                                                       Beverage                       1.04             0.56%               64253              5.47%
                                                                       Hazardous
•   Digital                                                            Materials and
                                                                       Waste                          1.04             0.54%                553               0.12%
                                                                       Property
                                                                       Development                    1.03             2.91%               21522              7.84%
                                                                       Digital                        1.03             0.38%               21397              4.12%
                                                                       Health and Care                1.01             4.94%               64894              6.26%
                                                                       Construction
                                                                       Products and
                                                                       Services                         1              4.92%                938               0.16%
                                                                                                                                                        28
Source: EMSI ‘Strength Finder’ Tool, based on ONS ASHE and BRES Data
Wages in specialist areas
                                                                                                                      Difference between
                                                                                                                      sector specialism
The West of England LEP’s specialist industries                                                                       average wage and
vary in terms of their average pay profile.                                National jobs growth Average wage (West of regional average wage
Some, such as vehicle and defence technology,            Sector Specialism % (2019-2020)        England, 2019)        (for all jobs)
pay more than the regional average wage (22%)
                                                         Vehicle and Defence
and some less, such as printing and publishing
                                                         Technology                         0%                 £41,379                    22%
(-38%).
                                                         Education and
                                                         Knowledge Creation                 2%                 £33,721                        4%
                                                         Civil Engineering                  2%                 £37,829                    14%
                                                         Government                         4%                 £27,593                    -18%

                                                         Printing and Publishing            1%                 £23,479                    -38%

                                                         Financial and Legal
                                                         Services                           -1%                £34,556                        6%
                                                         Creative                           3%                 £30,233                        -7%

                                                         Metalworking
                                                         Technology                         2%                 £31,882                        -2%

                                                         Local Environmental
                                                         Services                           1%                 £28,815                    -13%
                                                         Passenger Transport                2%                 £36,655                    11%
Source: EMSI ‘Strength Finder’ Tool, based on ONS ASHE and BRES Data                                                                29
Employment Rate – Time Series
• The employment rate has remained broadly stable since                             Percentage of West of England LEP residents aged 16-64
  March 2017.                                                                                        currently employed
                                                                               84
• Males have a consistently higher employment rate than
  females, but the gap has decreased in size since March 2017.
                                                                               82
• The impact of COVID does not appear to be showing in the
  employment rates. This is possibly due to sample size and
                                                                               80
  the fact that it is a ‘year to date’ measure so could flatten
  trends.
                                                                               78
Date (12 months to)                 Residents 16-64 Male 16-64 Female 16-64
Apr 2016-Mar 2017                                78        80.7         75.2
Jul 2016-Jun 2017                              78.2        81.2         75.3   76
Oct 2016-Sep 2017                              78.5        81.7         75.3
Jan 2017-Dec 2017                              78.6        82.1         75.1   74
Apr 2017-Mar 2018                              78.1        81.5         74.6
Jul 2017-Jun 2018                              78.9        82.2         75.5
                                                                               72
Oct 2017-Sep 2018                              78.4        81.1         75.6
Jan 2018-Dec 2018                              79.1        81.6         76.5
Apr 2018-Mar 2019                              79.5        82.5         76.4   70
Jul 2018-Jun 2019                              79.4          82         76.7
Oct 2018-Sep 2019                              79.7        82.3           77
Jan 2019-Dec 2019                              78.8        81.3         76.3
Apr 2019-Mar 2020                                79        80.7         77.2
Jul 2019-Jun 2020                              78.6        80.9         76.2
Oct 2019-Sep 2020                              78.7        80.7         76.6                   Residents 16-64   Male 16-64   Female 16-64
Jan 2020 - Dec 2020                            79.7        82.1         77.2
 Source: ONS Annual Population Survey
                                                                                                                                             30
Employment Rate
  • In the year to December 2020, the employment rate for the                            Employed        Rate
    West of England was 79.7%; higher than the national rate of   Group
    76.0%.                                                        All - aged 50+          182,900        44.6

  • Working age males had an employment rate of 80.7%, 4.1        All - aged 16-24         83,100        60.4
    percentage points greater than the rate for working age
    females.
                                                                  All - aged 16-64        594,400        79.7
  • COVID is expected to reduce the employment rate, but the
    sample size of the Annual Population Survey as well as its    Males - aged 50+         92,600        47.4
    ‘year to date’ measurement of the data is thought to be
    stopping this showing significantly at a regional level       Males - aged 16-24       44,500        60.5

                                                                  Males - aged 16-64      306,300        80.7

                                                                  Females - aged 50+       90,400        42.2

                                                                  Female - aged 16-24      38,600        60.4

                                                                  Females - aged 16-64    283,900        77.2

Source: ONS Annual Population Survey 2021                                                           31
Employment Rate – Jan 2020- Dec
 2020

                                                                                    Bath and                     South
                                                                        West of     North East     Bristol, City Gloucestersh
Group                                                                   England LEP Somerset       of            ire          England

Employment rate - aged 16-64                                                    79.7        82.0           77.1          81.7           75.7

Employment rate - aged 50+                                                      44.6        43.2           47.2          44.8           42.5

Employment rate - aged 16-24                                                    60.4        64.2           55.4          63.9           52.5

Employment rate males - aged 16-64                                              82.1        87.3           79.4          83.0           79.1

Employment rate males - aged 50+                                                47.3        46.9           48.5          47.0           46.7

Employment rate males - aged 16-24                                              60.5        68.1           57.7          59.9           51.7

Employment rate females - aged 16-64                                            77.2        76.2           74.6          80.5           72.3

Employment rate females - aged 50+                                              42.2        39.9           45.9          42.8           38.7

Employment rate females - aged 16-24                                            60.4        60.2           52.9          68.8           53.3
Source: ONS Annual Population Survey;
Note: All data relates covers the 12 month period up to December 2020
                                                                                                                                  32
Claimants Aged 16-24
As of May 2021 there were 6,450 claimants aged between                        Percentage of residents 16-24 claiming unemployment related
16—24; 4.2% of the population in that age cohort.
                                                                                                         benefits
This is down on the August 2020 peak of 5.2% (or 7,940          8.0
claimants) and is the lowest rate seen since March 2020,
however still represents an increase of 127% since then,
                                                                7.0
equating to an additional 3,610 young claimants.

All four unitary authorities in the West of England have seen   6.0
a spike in the number of young claimants; ranging from 2.7%
of the cohort in Bath and North East Somerset to 5.6% in
                                                                5.0
North Somerset.

Despite the sharp increase in ‘young’ claimants, the rate in    4.0
the West of England and the four unitary authority remains
below the national rate of 6.7%.                                3.0

May 2021                     Count          % of age group      2.0

B&NES                           880
                                                         2.7
                                                                1.0
Bristol                        3,335
                                                         4.6
N.Som                          1,015                            0.0
                                                         5.6    November   February   May 2019   August   November   February   May 2020    August    November    February    May 2021
S.Glos                         1,220                               2018      2019                 2019      2019       2020                  2020       2020        2021
                                                         4.1
West of England                6,450
                                                         4.2
England                     399,830                                        B&NES       Bristol     North Somerset       South Gloucestershire        West of England         England
                                                         6.7
                                                                                                                                                                       33
Claimants Aged 50+
As of May 2021 there were 7,225 claimants aged 50+;                           Percentage of residents 50+ claiming unemployment related
3.6% of the population in that age cohort.
                                                                                                        benefits
This 0.4 percentage points lower than the May and August         6.0
2020 peaks, however represents an increase of 102% ‘older’
claimants since March 2020, equating to an additional 3,650
people.                                                          5.0

All four unitary authorities in the West of England have seen
a spike in the number of ‘older’ claimants; ranging from 2.4%    4.0
of the cohort South Gloucestershire to 5.2% in Bristol.

The rate of ‘older’ claimants in the West of England remains
                                                                 3.0
below the national rate of 4.8%; however the rate in Bristol
exceeds the national rate.

 May 2021                 Count           % of age group         2.0

 B&NES                            1,170                    3.4
                                                                 1.0
 Bristol                          3,415                    5.2

 N.Som                            1,340                    3.1
                                                                 0.0
 S.Glos                           1,300                    2.4     November February   May 2019   August   November February   May 2020       August   November February    May 2021
                                                                     2018     2019                 2019      2019     2020                     2020      2020     2021
 West of England                  7,225                    3.6
                                                                          B&NES        Bristol    North Somerset      South Gloucestershire        West of England     England

 England                       513,155                     4.8
                                                                                                                                                                       34
Indices of Multiple Deprivation –
education deprivation
Local Authority District name (2019)   Ward                           LSOA in Ward 20%   LSOA in Ward 10%

Bath and North East    Somerset        Combe Down                                    1                    1
Bath and North East    Somerset        Keynsham North                                1                    0
Bath and North East    Somerset        Keynsham South                                1                    0
Bath and North East    Somerset        Peasedown                                     1                    1
Bath and North East    Somerset        Radstock                                      1                    0
Bath and North East    Somerset        Southdown                                     1                    1
Bath and North East    Somerset        Twerton                                       4                    4
Bath and North East    Somerset        Westfield                                     1                    0
Bristol, City of                       Ashley                                        2                    0
Bristol, City of                       Filwood                                       9                    7
Bristol, City of                       Frome Vale                                    1                    1

Bristol, City of                       Hartcliffe and Withywood                     12                 12

Bristol, City of                       Henbury and Brentry                           3                    2

Bristol,   City   of                   Hengrove and Whitchurch Park                  5                    2
Bristol,   City   of                   Hillfields                                    3                    1
Bristol,   City   of                   Horfield                                      1                    0
Bristol,   City   of                   Knowle                                        3                    3
Bristol,   City   of                   Lawrence Hill                                 7                    5
Bristol,   City   of                   Lockleaze                                     2                    2
Bristol,   City   of                   Southmead                                     5                    3

                                                                                                     35
Indices of Multiple Deprivation –
education deprivation cont.
Local Authority District name (2019)   Ward                            LSOA in Ward 20%   LSOA in Ward 10%

Bristol, City of                       St George Central                              2                  0
Bristol, City of                       Stockwood                                      2                  2
Bristol, City of                       Stoke Bishop                                   1                  0
Bristol, City of                       Windmill Hill                                  1                  0

North Somerset                         Weston-super-Mare Central                      2                  1

North Somerset                         Weston-super-Mare Mid Worle                    1                  0

North Somerset                         Weston-super-Mare Milton                       2                  0

North Somerset                         Weston-super-Mare South                        6                  6

North Somerset                         Weston-super-Mare Winterstoke                  1                  0
South Gloucestershire                  Dodington                                      1                  0
South Gloucestershire                  Emersons Green                                 1                  0
South Gloucestershire                  Kings Chase                                    2                  1
South Gloucestershire                  Oldland Common                                 1                  0
South Gloucestershire                  Parkwall                                       2                  2
South Gloucestershire                  Patchway                                       3                  1
South Gloucestershire                  Rodway                                         3                  0
South Gloucestershire                  Staple Hill                                    2                  1
South Gloucestershire                  Thornbury South and Alveston                   1                  0
South Gloucestershire                  Yate Central                                   1                  0
South Gloucestershire                  Yate North                                     1                  1

                                                                                                    36
Indices of Multiple Deprivation –
employment deprivation
                                                                                           LSOA in
Local Authority District name (2019)   Ward                            LSOA in Ward 20%   Ward 10%
Bath and North East Somerset           Combe Down                                     1          0
Bath and North East Somerset           Southdown                                      1          0
Bath and North East Somerset           Twerton                                        3          1
Bristol, City of                       Ashley                                         2          0

Bristol, City of                       Avonmouth and Lawrence Weston                  5          2
Bristol, City of                       Bishopsworth                                   1          0
Bristol, City of                       Brislington East                               2          0
Bristol, City of                       Brislington West                               1          1
Bristol, City of                       Central                                        2          2
Bristol, City of                       Easton                                         1          0
Bristol, City of                       Eastville                                      2          0
Bristol, City of                       Filwood                                        7          4
Bristol, City of                       Frome Vale                                     2          1
Bristol, City of                       Hartcliffe and Withywood                      11          9
Bristol, City of                       Henbury and Brentry                            2          1
Bristol, City of                       Hengrove and Whitchurch Park                   3          1
Bristol, City of                       Hillfields                                     2          1

                                                                                            37
Indices of Multiple Deprivation –
employment deprivation cont.
Local Authority District name (2019)   Ward                    LSOA in Ward 20%   LSOA in Ward 10%
Bristol, City of                       Horfield                               1                  0
Bristol, City of                       Knowle                                 2                  2
Bristol, City of                       Lawrence Hill                          7                  6
Bristol, City of                       Lockleaze                              2                  0
Bristol, City of                       Southmead                              4                  1
Bristol, City of                       Southville                             1                  0

Bristol, City of                       St George Central                      2                  0
Bristol, City of                       Stockwood                              2                  2
Bristol, City of                       Stoke Bishop                           1                  0
                                       Weston-super-Mare
North Somerset                         Central                                6                  5
                                       Weston-super-Mare
North Somerset                         Hillside                               2                  2
                                       Weston-super-Mare Mid
North Somerset                         Worle                                  1                  0
                                       Weston-super-Mare
North Somerset                         Milton                                 3                  0

                                       Weston-super-Mare
North Somerset                         North Worle                            1                  0
                                       Weston-super-Mare
North Somerset                         South                                  7                  6
South Gloucestershire                  Kings Chase                            1                  0
South Gloucestershire                  Patchway                               1                  0
South Gloucestershire                  Staple Hill                            2                  0

                                                                                            38
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