The contribution of energy efficient glazing to Paris objective in different EU building renovation scenarios - eceee

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The contribution of energy efficient
glazing to Paris objective in different
EU building renovation scenarios
Cédric Janssens
Glass for Europe
Rue Belliard 199/33, B-1040 Brussels
Belgium
cedric.janssens@glassforeurope.com

Keywords
Paris agreement, long-term EU GHG emissions reduction, win-             Based on these findings, this paper will reflect on the current
dows, renovation, building envelope                                  renovation trajectories and policies, and how can the reform of
                                                                     the EU climate policy help energy efficient glazing contribute
                                                                     to the Paris objective.
Abstract
The commitment made in Paris calls on the EU to release a new
strategy setting new levels of ambition for its GHG emissions        Introduction
reduction and define the contribution of its different sectors.      Buildings are responsible for 40 % of energy consumption in
The building sector is one of the sectors with the highest savings   the European Union (European Commission 2018). This en-
potential, and the distinct benefits of energy efficient buildings   ergy used for heating, cooling, ventilate etc. is responsible for
(e.g. economic, social and environmental) are often highlighted.     36 % of total EU CO2 emissions. As acknowledged by the Eu-
To tap into this potential, a number of regulations, financial and   ropean Commission in the “Clean Planet for All” (European
fiscal incentives and other soft tools have been developed at all    commission 2018), energy efficiency measures should play a
levels of governance, with mitigated outcome. While the build-       central role in reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by
ing sector accounts for 40 % of the European Union’s (EU) ener-      2050 and much of the reduced energy demand potential lies
gy consumption and 36 % of its CO2 emissions, the EU building        in buildings.
stock continues ageing with a reduced number of new buildings,          The EU building stock is characterized by a high share of
and low demolition and renovation rates.                             buildings equipped with inefficient glazing - estimated by TNO
   This paper proposes to consider the impact of the renovation      Built-environment and geosciences in “glazing type distribu-
rates on the energy savings and CO2 emissions reduction of           tion in the EU building stock” at 85 % of the building stock
one element of the building’s envelope; i.e. the windows and in      (TNO 2011). This situation translates in an estimated average
particular their glazing. Based on an assessment of the EU cur-      performance of windows in the EU building stock, European
rent building and window renovation rates and quantifications        Commission estimate (European Commission 2018), lower
in a recent report commissioned by Glass for Europe to TNO           than an uncoated double-glazing, a product of the 1970’s. Not
(TNO 2019), this paper presents the quantities of energy and         surprisingly, these outdated windows present in the EU build-
CO2 which can be saved by 2030 and 2050 using adequate glaz-         ing stock have a considerable impact on the building consump-
ing depending on the building type and location. Four differ-        tion. The ecodesign study on window product “Lot 32/Ecode-
ent scenarios are developed analysed for the entire EU-28: two       sign of Window Products” by VHK, Ift Rosenheim and Vito
scenarios assessing the maximum/theoretical savings potential        (European Commission 2015) considered windows responsi-
of glazing (in 2030 and 2050) and the impact of doubling the         ble for 24 % of the EU heating demand and 9 % of the cooling
EU building renovation rate between 2020 and 2030.                   demand in buildings. As building component, the window and

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its glazing are covered by the Energy Performance of Buildings                             to assess their maximum energy and CO2 saving potential
Directive (EPBD). Nevertheless, it appears that since the adop-                            (as presented in TNO 2019);
tion of the first EPBD in 2002, the situation has not substan-
                                                                                       • 3°) The same building renovation rate as today (1.5 %/year)
tially improved due to the dated EU building stock, the lim-
                                                                                           applied between 2020 and 2030 with an increase in the en-
ited renovation rate and reduced uptake of high-performance
                                                                                           ergy performance of glazing (calculated by the author based
glazing products in the renovation segment. As presented in
                                                                                           on TNO 2019);
a previous paper by the same author1 (Janssens 2017), while
the EPBD has improved the uptake of more performant glaz-                              • 4°) Doubling the building renovation between 2020 and
ing products in new buildings and buildings undergoing major                               2030 with the same increase in performance as for point
renovation by introducing ambitious minimum energy perfor-                                 3°) (calculated by the author based on TNO 2019).
mance requirements for the building, the picture is different
                                                                                       Based on the calculations’ outcome, recommendations are
for renovation in the absence of or low-level of performance of
                                                                                       made for future legislative initiatives to maximise the contri-
prescriptive requirements for building components.
                                                                                       bution of glazing installed in the EU building stock in view of
   Looking at the glazing is therefore particularly instructive
                                                                                       the Paris agreement and forthcoming EU climate long-term
at the time of considering the untapped savings potential in
                                                                                       strategy.
buildings for a reviewed EU decarbonisation agenda. This pa-
per proposes to consider the potential energy savings windows
offer and the impact on both energy and CO2 emissions of the                           Calculation tool by TNO to assess the impact of high-
building stock of an increased building renovation rate (dou-
                                                                                       performance glazing
bling) coupled with glazing products of better energy-perfor-
                                                                                       The quantification of the potential energy and CO2 savings in
mance levels. It provides answers to questions such as: How
                                                                                       the EU are based on a recent quantitative work made by TNO
much savings (from both heating and cooling) can be made
                                                                                       (TNO 2019). Information on the calculation method2 and data
if all windows were replaced in the old building stock by win-
                                                                                       used3 by TNO are available in the report (TNO 2019) and will
dows with energy efficient glazing, while new constructions are
                                                                                       not be further developed here (see footnotes 2 and 3).
equipped with highly energy efficient glazing? How much en-
                                                                                          Two sets of calculations were used by TNO to determine the
ergy can be saved by doubling the EU building renovation rate?
                                                                                       potential energy savings: 1°) The annual heating and cooling
Based on these findings, this paper will reflect on the current
                                                                                       demand of existing buildings (and expected to be applied in
renovation trajectories and policies, and how can the reform of
                                                                                       future buildings); 2°) The annual heating and cooling demand
the EU climate policy help energy efficient glazing contribute
                                                                                       for the same buildings with high-performance glazing. The
to the Paris objective.
                                                                                       subtraction of the annual energy requirements resulting from
   The first section of this paper presents the quantitative work
                                                                                       the two calculations reveals the potential annual energy sav-
made by TNO Built Environment and Geosciences (TNO) in
                                                                                       ings for heating and cooling. Subsequently, the potential CO2
a recent report “Potential impact of high-performance glazing
                                                                                       savings are derived from the annual energy savings and the
on energy and CO2 savings in Europe” (TNO 2019) and used
                                                                                       country and period specific carbon intensities available in “EU
as a basis for the calculation of potential savings in this paper.
                                                                                       reference Scenario 2016: Energy, transport and GHG emissions
In particular, it considers the definition of performance of win-
                                                                                       trends to 2050” (European Commission 2016).
dows currently installed in the EU building stock and expected
evolution in the new buildings in a business as usual scenario.
                                                                                       ENERGY PERFORMANCE OF WINDOWS INSTALLED IN THE EU BUILDING
It then provides an overview of the methodology used to de-
                                                                                       STOCK
fine the properties of high-performance glazing to be installed
                                                                                       The first set of calculation (or baseline) required to assess to-
for the two periods considered (i.e. 2020 to 2030 and 2030 to
                                                                                       day’s building stock performance and expected evolution of
2050) and the factors taken into consideration by experts when
                                                                                       the window performance in a business as usual scenario be-
setting these.
                                                                                       tween 2020 and 2030 and between 2030 and 2050. At the time
   The second section of this paper discusses the current build-
                                                                                       of introducing data in the TNO calculation tool and comput-
ing and windows renovation rates to evaluate how the quan-
                                                                                       ing the performance of windows in the existing building stock
titative work by TNO (TNO 2019) could be used to develop
                                                                                       (i.e. Spring 2018), the performance of windows installed in the
realistic EU building renovation scenarios between 2020 and
                                                                                       different member states was not publicly available and had to
2030 and to assess the impact of these scenarios on energy con-
                                                                                       be constructed based on experts’ estimates4. The methodology
sumption and CO2 emissions. Based on this assessment, it uses
                                                                                       used to define the performance of windows in the building
the quantifications made in the TNO report (TNO 2019) and
                                                                                       stock over building ages and per country cluster is described
provides two new calculations for assessing energy and CO2
                                                                                       in the annex of the TNO report (TNO 2019) and is primarily
savings under four scenarios:
                                                                                       based on estimated sales in Europe over ages available in the
• 1°) and 2°) Two theoretical scenarios where all windows are                          European Commission preparatory study “LOT 32/Ecodesign
    equipped with high-performance glazing in 2030 and 2050

                                                                                       2. Calculation method corresponds to the EPBD standards developed for the de-
                                                                                       termination of heating and cooling loads of buildings.
1. An analysis of the minimum requirements in the different EU member states
made by the same author has been published in 2017 (see Janssens 2017). This           3. For instance, data used by TNO include figures on the building stock, material
analysis concluded that in many countries the minimum requirements for windows         properties, heating and cooling load.
fail to drive the market towards energy efficient products by referring to sub-opti-   4. Glass for Europe’s companies experts and its secretariat provided the data com-
mal choices and applying under certain restrictive conditions only.                    puted in the TNO calculation tool.

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Table 1: Estimated window performance values for the TNO baseline scenario (TNO 2019).
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Energy efficient windows – 2030–2050                                               Renovation scenarios and the impact of high-
The second period (2030–2050) differs substantially from the                       performance glazing on the energy consumption and
first period (2020–2030) in that it is to be expected that the
                                                                                   CO2 emissions
products which are going to be available on the market are not
yet known. Therefore, their performances had to be estimated
by experts. The same factors used for the first period were taken                  DEFINING CURRENT WINDOWS’ RENOVATION RATE
into consideration.                                                                Once the window values have been defined for both the base-
   The set of values differ in one aspect from the 2020–2030 pe-                   line and the scenarios in the calculation tool, an estimate of to-
riod: all the residential buildings newly built or renovated in a                  day’s renovation rate of windows was necessary for interpreting
same cluster are equipped with the same window. Experts con-                       the results. If the European Commission considers doubling
sidered that, while the distinction between the renovation and                     the buildings’ renovation rate, as highlighted in the commu-
new construction exists today due to the Energy Performance                        nication “Clean Planet for all”, what is the current windows’
of Buildings Directive (EPBD – REF) “nearly zero energy” ob-                       renovation rate and how much savings can be made with high-
jective for new buildings, it is impossible to predict if this dis-                performance glazing?
tinction will still apply in 2030–2050. Therefore, it was decided                     While reviewing the literature, it was not possible to identify
to adopt a conservative approach and align the performances                        a renovation rate of windows in the European Union. Never-
of the windows to be used in new buildings with the ones to be                     theless, an estimate can be constructed using the lifetime of the
used for renovation for the second period.                                         window products. When window products were assessed for

Table 2. Window performance values 2020-2030 for the TNO renovation scenarios (2019).

                                   Residential               Residential new             Non-residential
                                   renovation                                           renovation + new
                                  Uw           gw             Uw              gw             Uw       gw
             North                  0.93         0.32          0.91            0.32          0.98      0.19
               FI, SE

    Central maritime                1.08         0.32          1.05            0.32          1.25      0.22
     BE, DK, IE, LU, NL, UK, FR

   Central continental              0.98         0.32          0.92            0.32          1.01      0.19
               AT, DE

             South                  1.33         0.27          1.29            0.23          1.29      0.23
       CY, EL, IT, MT, PT, ES

            Baltics                 0.96         0.32          0.92            0.32               1    0.19
             LT, LV, EE

            Central                 1.01         0.32          0.98            0.32          1.01      0.19
      PL, CZ, HU, SK, SI, HR

  Bulgaria & Romania                1.33         0.27          1.29            0.32          1.29      0.23

Table 3. Window performance values 2030–2050 for the TNO renovation scenarios (2019).

                                     Residential                Non-residential
                                  renovation + new             renovation + new
                                   Uw             gw               Uw              gw
              North                    0.63         0.35            0.72              0.22
               FI, SE

     Central maritime                  0.68            0.4          0.72              0.22
     BE, DK, IE, LU, NL, UK, FR

    Central continental                0.63         0.35            0.72              0.22
               AT, DE

              South                     0.8         0.14                0.8           0.14
        CY, EL, IT, MT, PT, ES

             Baltics                   0.63         0.35            0.72              0.22
              LT, LV, EE

            Central                    0.71         0.39                0.8           0.14
       PL, CZ, HU, SK, SI, HR

   Bulgaria & Romania                  0.72         0.22                0.8           0.14

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Table 4. Savings potential of energy efficient windows.

 Scenario                         EU Building          Window                Period                   Energy               Reduction                 CO2
                                  renovation          renovation                                      savings              of building            reduction
                                     rate                rate                                         heating/               energy                 (kTon)
                                                                                                      cooling             consumption
                                                                                                    (MToe) / (TJ)              (%)
 1. All windows are                        100 %            100 %    Savings in year 2030                   75.5 /                  29.2 %              94,230
 changed in 2030                                                                                        3,161,034
 2. All windows are                        100 %            100 %    Savings in year 2050                   67.3 /                  37.4 %              68,512
 changed in 2050                                                                                        2,817,716
 3. Renovation rate                  1.5 %/year           2 %/year   Savings in year 2030                    18.1 /                     7%              11,473
 remains equal to today                                              2 % window renovation                 757,810
 with high performance                                               every year between
 glazing                                                             2020 and 2030
 4. Doubling today’s                   3 %/year           4 %/year   Savings in year 2030                   36.3 /                    14 %              22,946
 renovation rate with                                                4 % window renovation              1,519,808
 high performance                                                    every year between
 glazing                                                             2020 and 2030

ecodesign measures by the European Commission, a prepara-                         Since it is not the purpose of this paper to analyse the Eu-
tory study was commissioned and the lifetime of windows was                    ropean Commission estimate, it will conclude this section by
studied (European Commission 2015). The preparatory study                      considering that the estimated window renovation rate is suffi-
considers that the lifetime of a window is comprised between                   ciently robust. It is based on product lifetime, well documented
40 and 50–years if serviced and maintained properly. This im-                  by an official source and validated by experts9. Hence, it has
plies that the annual renovation rate of windows shall be com-                 been considered in calculations that when the renovation rate
prised between 2 and 2.5 %/y.                                                  of the EU building stock increases, all other things being equal,
   When comparing this figure with the European Commis-                        the renovation rate of windows will proportionally increase.
sion’s most recent estimate of the average building renovation                 A conservative approach was then adopted in the calculations
rate (European Union 2018), i.e. 1 to 1.5 %, the estimated win-                by considering a 1.5 % EU building renovation rate and a 2 %
dows’ renovation rate seems too high. If the EU renovation rate                windows’ renovation rate (equivalent to 50 years lifetime) not
includes window renovation as well as other renovations (e.g.                  to overestimate potential savings.
building envelope, walls, floors, roofs, or heating systems), why
is the window annual renovation rate higher than the EU reno-                  SAVINGS POTENTIAL UNDER FOUR SCENARIOS
vation rate?                                                                   Table 4 provides the outcome of the savings’ calculations based
   At first, one can question the estimated windows’ renovation                on TNO quantification (TNO 2019) under four different sce-
rate. If the window renovation rate was at the same level than                 narios10. Each scenario and the main findings are explained in
the EU building renovation rate, it would entail a product life-               Table 4.
time of minimum 67–100 years. It stands clear from the Lot 32
preparatory study and experts’ knowledge that such lifetime is                 Scenario 1 and 2: 100% scenarios and maximum savings potential
inconceivable.                                                                 Both scenarios 1 and 2 are purely theoretical and are meant to
   The EU building stock renovation rate can also be discussed.                assess the maximum potential of high-performance glazing (as
When looking into the European Commission in-depth analy-                      defined in Table 2 and 3) to reduce the energy consumption of
sis (European Commission 2018), no reference is provided to                    the building stock. Under these scenarios, all new buildings
support the 1 to 1.5 % figure. When reviewing the literature,                  are equipped with high performance glazing and all the ex-
it proved to be extremely difficult to find comparable/concur-                 isting buildings have their windows replaced. These scenarios
ring alternative sources, an issue already highlighted by Mei-
jer et al. (2012) and relayed in a recent study commissioned
by the European Parliament to Trinomics “Boosting Building                     9. Three possible explanations of the mismatch between the European
                                                                               Commission figure and the window estimated renovation rate are listed below for
Renovation: What potential and value for Europe” (European                     future research on this topic: 1°) The building renovation rate varied over time
Parliament 2016). Both sources highlight “that there is a lack                 with high peaks compensating the current level; 2°) Window replacement (or other
                                                                               single energy-saving measures) is not considered as renovation in some studies or
of consistent and accurate data on building renovation rates                   by some national/regional or local authorities in their statistics (when they exist);
across Europe” (European Parliament 2016), and the European                    3°) Window replacement are not systematically reported to the local services (e.g.
                                                                               no town permit is required) and therefore not computed in any statistics (when
Commission itself gave at least two considerably different esti-               they exist).
mates of the EU building renovation rate in less than 6 years;                 10. The TNO report (TNO 2019) considers three renovation rates for the two peri-
i.e. 3 % in 2012 and 1 to 1.5 % in 2018. Therefore, it is possible             ods (1, 2 and 3 %), one 100 % scenario for the two period and a 1 % renovation rate
                                                                               per year between 2020 and 2030. In view of the previous section “Defining current
that the 1 to 1.5 % renovation rate is a conservative figure and/              windows’ renovation rate”, only the quantifications on the maximum potential (i.e.
or that it does not include single building element renovation                 the scenarios 1 and 2) could be re-used without further recalculations. Scenarios 3
                                                                               and 4 had to be calculated to meet the conditions set in the previous section (i.e.
(such as window replacement).                                                  today windows’ annual renovation rate is equal to 2 %).

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show significant potentials (see Table 4) which correspond to                         an interesting overview of the potential of energy efficient
a reduction in the final energy demand of the building stock of                       glazing to reduce buildings’ emissions resulting from energy
29.2 % in 2030 and 37.4 % in 2050. For 2030, the maximum/                             used for heating and cooling. The latter is a major contribu-
theoretical potential savings of window alone represent 42 % of                       tion of the TNO report (2019) since the glazing contribution
the energy efficiency target set in the Energy Efficiency Direc-                      to reducing the energy consumption and related emissions for
tive (European Commission 2016).                                                      cooling is not considered by the European Commission in the
                                                                                      “Clean planet for all”13, while glazing products can mitigate the
Scenario 3 and 4: Today renovation rate (1.5 %/y) and doubling it                     increase of air-conditioning systems installed in buildings14.
While the scenarios 1 and 2 are purely theoretical, the 1.5 %                            The CO2 savings under the four scenarios are in the same
renovation rate (scenario 3) and the 3 % (scenario 4) are con-                        range as the energy savings compared to the total energy con-
sidered more realistic. The scenario 3 is equivalent to the cur-                      sumption and emissions of the building stock. For instance, in
rent building renovation rate, but it differs from the current                        the 2050 – 100 % scenario, 37.5 % of the total CO2 emissions in
situation in terms of level of performance at time of renovation.                     the business as usual scenario are avoided (while the total en-
Under the 1.5 % renovation rate, high performance glazing (see                        ergy consumption was reduced by 37.4 %). Despite an increase
Table 3) are systematically used when replacing windows in the                        of renewables in the energy mix, there is no decoupling of en-
old building stock. These savings are possible with products                          ergy and CO2 reductions which is largely due to an increased
readily available on the market. Nevertheless, it stands clear                        share of buildings equipped with cooling systems as foreseen by
that approaching this figure in practice, without increasing the                      the International Energy Agency “The future of cooling” report
renovation rate, would require changes in the decisions made                          (IEA 2018)15.
by consumers and window installers at the time of replacing
windows. An evolution which, to a certain, already took place
for new buildings (with the requirements for new buildings in                         Conclusions
the EPBD and the role played by building professionals; e.g.                          The potential contribution of highly-efficient glazing highlight-
architects) but not in the renovation sector (see Ecofys 2017).                       ed in this paper is compelling. However, the assumptions used
   The scenario 4 (3 %/y.) improves the level of performance                          in the scenario, including the more realistic, require political
of window renovation in Europe, with the same windows’                                action on renovation which failed to happen since the first
performances as in the scenario 3 (Table 3), and doubles the                          EPBD (2002). It stands clear that while the glazing potential
renovation rate (as suggested by the European Commission                              for energy savings is high and efficient products are available,
in the communication “A clean Planet for all”). The impact of                         tapping into this is a matter of products efficiency, quantity and
this evolution in terms of quantity and level of performance is                       time. On these three dimensions, the legislator has the levers
substantial and allows to grasp nearly 50 % of the maximum                            on which to act.
energy saving potential (i.e. 100 % scenarios) by targeting the                          In terms of efficiency, the information from different sourc-
least energy efficient buildings in Europe11.                                         es16 compiled in the present study shows that a special focus
                                                                                      on the renovation of the residential building is a must. While
The contribution of high-performance glazing to Paris’ objective                      new buildings and non-residential buildings are less of a con-
                                                                                      cern due to the high-level of requirements (“nearly zero energy
Calculation of CO2 savings                                                            building”) and the involvement of buildings’ professionals (e.g.
To derive the CO2 savings potential from the energy savings                           architects), renovation in the residential sector is clearly not
for heating and cooling, the calculation model by TNO (TNO                            optimal and existing legislation and requirements would need
2019) took into consideration a number of factors including the                       to be systematically re-assessed to support the ambition.
efficiency of the heating and cooling systems12, and the carbon                          In terms of quantity, the European Commission in its “Clean
intensity of the energy mix. For the latter, the data computed in                     Planet for All” communication rightly identifies that the renova-
the calculation tool are derived from the EU Reference scenario                       tion rate of building is too low compared to the ambition and
2016. Therefore, they do not perfectly match the work done                            that renovating 97 % of the building stock implies “more than
by the European Commission on the “Clean Planet for All”                              doubling of the renovation rate”. That being said, the European
which takes into consideration newly adopted legislations such                        Commission modelling in the different pathways does not seem
as the renewable energy directive, which increases further the                        to reflect energy efficiency as “first” priority, when building
share of renewables in the energy mix. It is a limit of the results
provided by the TNO report, since the conversion of energy
savings into CO2 savings are not based on the latest EU figures.                      13. While the European Commission limits itself when providing information on the
                                                                                      energy performance of windows to their insulation (i.e. Uw-value) the TNO report
   While the carbon intensity of Member States’ energy mix                            looks into the solar transmittance of the window (g-value) which is particularly
could be updated, the results of the calculations already give                        important when considering the cooling needs of the building.
                                                                                      14. In two country clusters with high solar irradiance and hotter climate (South
                                                                                      and Bulgaria&Romania) it is estimated that the energy consumption for cooling
                                                                                      the buildings can be reduced by 36 % and 29.2 % when using solar-control glazing
11. In these scenarios, only buildings built before 2002 have their windows re-       (with an equivalent reduction compared to the total CO2 emissions).
placed.                                                                               15. IEA estimates that, in Europe, 15 % of residential buildings are equipped today
12. For the heating and cooling systems, scenarios on their improved performance      with cooling systems and 60 % of the non-residential buildings. It expects these
had to be constructed based on the EU energy labels. Products labelled A++ are        figures to increase to 50 % and 85 % respectively by 2050.
assumed to be the average used in all buildings in 2050, which explains that the      16. Including the performance of window products installed today in the building
100 % scenario exhibits less savings while their relative share to the reduction of   stock (ref. TNO 2019, European Commission 2018 and Building Stock Observatory),
the EU building stock consumption and emissions is higher compared to 2030; i.e.      the minimum performance requirements for window replacement in the EU (Ecofys
-29.2 % in 2030 and -37.4 % in 2050.                                                  2017) and the energy performance requirements for new buildings (EPBD).

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renovation rate merely increases from 1–1.5 % to (maximum)                             ITRE/2013-046, http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/
1.8 %/y17. The measures to accompany the ambition need there-                          etudes/STUD/2016/587326/IPOL_STU(2016)587326_
fore to be seriously reconsidered at the time of formulating the                       EN.pdf.
future proposals to make the transition to a net-zero EU pos-                      European Union, 2010, Directive 2010/31/EU of the Euro-
sible.                                                                                 pean Parliament and of the Council of 19 May 2010 on
   Timing is key and goes hand in hand with quality and quan-                          the energy performance of buildings (recast), L153/13, 18
tity. If the level of performance of renovation does not improve                       June.
and quantities are not triggered by a political agenda at the level                European Union, 2016, Proposal for a Directive of the Euro-
of the ambition, the potentials highlighted in this study will re-                     pean Parliament and of the Council amending Directive
main mere potentials only. An early start of the reform contem-                        2012/27/EU on energy efficiency, COM(2016)761 final, 30
plated above is needed for glazing and could potentially benefit                       November.
other building shell materials as well (European Commission                        European Union, 2016, Proposal for a Directive of the Eu-
2018)18. In view of the product’s lifetime and most recent cli-                        ropean Parliament and of the Council amending Direc-
mate scientific reports (IPCC 2018 and European Commission                             tive 2010/31/EU on the energy performance of buildings,
2018), the window for action is tight to activate markets and                          COM(2016)675final, 30 November.
realise the savings by 2050.                                                       International Energy Agency, 2018, The Future of Cooling Op-
                                                                                       portunities for energy- efficient air conditioning, IEA, Paris,
                                                                                       https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264301993-en.
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   pean long-term strategic vision for a prosperous, modern,                       TNO Built Environment and Geosciences, 2011, Glazing type
   competitive and climate neutral economy and “In-depth                               distribution in the EU building stock – TNO report, TNO-
   analysis in support of the Commission communication                                 60-DTM-2011-00338, February.
   COM(2018)773: A Clean Planet for all, 28 November.                              TNO Built Environment and Geosciences, 2019, Potential
European Parliament, 2016, Boosting Building Renovation:                               impact of high-performance glazing on energy and CO2
   What potential and value for Europe, by Trinomics, IP/A/                            savings in Europe.

17. The in-depth analysis in support of the Commission communication (European
Commission 2018) on page 102 shows the average yearly renovation rate
computed in PRIMES for the different pathways. The model considers a residential
building renovation rate of 1.8 % (with the implementation of the clean energy
package) between 2016 and 2030, and a maximum renovation rate of 1.8 %
under the energy efficiency pathway way below “more than doubling” the current
renovation rate.
18. The in-depth analysis in support of the Commission communication (European
Commission 2018) page 92 confirms that building insulation materials have
significantly improver over the years.

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