Keeping London moving: transport - Working paper that underpins the transport sections of "Getting London back to growth" - London First

Keeping London
moving: transport
Working paper that underpins the
transport sections of “Getting
London back to growth”
18th June 2020

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1. Public Transport:
A poorly managed return to public transport is a critical risk for our capital. This issue is
particularly acute in London because, from a transport perspective, the city is unique in
the UK. Millions commute in and out of the region on a daily basis and the city relies
much more heavily on public transport than anywhere else in the country. Only 3 in 10
Londoners drive to work – less than half the rate of any other region in the UK. Combined
with a funding structure that relies heavily on the fare payer, this has meant that
lockdown has resulted in a 90% reduction in income for Transport for London as
passenger numbers fell by over 90% on the Underground and by more than 80% on
buses. Through an extended period of opening up and recovery there will be both a
short-term need to support London’s public transport, and a long-term need to ensure
the sustainability of the network.

1.1 Operating public transport safely and building public confidence

With social distancing required long beyond the formal end of lockdown, public
transport capacity could be as little as a sixth of what it was before. But our survey of
more than 1,000 Londoners showed that 42% don’t plan on making any changes to their
commute once the lockdown ends. The Prime Minister has now advised people to stay
off public transport wherever possible, but only 16% of Londoners said they would not
use public transport for the foreseeable future. When lockdown ends, 24% of all
Londoners plan to use the tube and 21% said they will use buses – this is down from
36% and 32% respectively before Covid-19. Technology and data will be able to help
but this will not be enough. Government, City Hall, Transport for London, and
businesses will need work in lockstep to ensure demand is reduced and retimed.
1.2 Funding Transport for London (TfL) now and in the future

In the short-term, Transport for London will require continued Government support. For
at least as long as it is Government policy to avoid traveling by public transport, this will
remain the case. City Hall and central Government will need to work constructively
together to both keep Londoners safe, and keep the city moving. The Mayor’s response
to the first TfL bailout rightly highlighted the need for a revised longer-term funding
model “which will involve either permanent funding from Government or giving London
more control over taxes so we can pay for it ourselves – or a combination of both.”
Devolving responsibilities to London without devolving resources was always going to
be an unstable structure. This crisis should be the catalyst for a fundamental rethink.
The RPI + 1% fare rise mandated in the bailout agreement will not come close to being
sufficient. This will require a grassroots reassessment of the fares regime and the
subsidies within it. It will require a new generation of pricing techniques for road use.
And it will require new mechanisms to enable London to raise revenue locally. In the
absence of the reintroduction of a substantial grant from central Government, new
localised powers will be needed to ensure sustainable funding for Transport for London.
1.3 Redesigning the national rail network

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In normal times, millions of people enter and exit London every day using the national
rail network. Before Covid-19, a review led by Keith Williams was expected to
recommend that the franchising system be abandoned. This happened sooner than
expected as Government introduced Emergency Measures Agreements at the start of
lockdown. This removed revenue risk from the operators and replaced it with a small
management fee. Few expect a return to the previous system and the process of
establishing a new, permanent, equilibrium should consider the appropriate level of
control for individual routes. Equally important is reforming the rail fares structure.
Covid-19 is likely to accelerate the trends of home working that had essentially
destroyed the season ticket as a viable product. And with split ticketing apps becoming
increasingly popular, the anomalies within the existing system were already fatally
undermining it. A rationalisation of the 55 million different rail fares across the UK is long
overdue and, where practicable, commuter routes should be controlled by the directly
elected representatives of the city regions that they serve.

2. Modal shift
With public transport capacity likely to be severely reduced for the foreseeable future,
it will be imperative for Londoners not to revert to car-based travel. There is simply not
the space on London’s roads to accommodate this. As such, a combination of carrots,
sticks, and creative thinking will be necessary to ensure that Londoners change their
behaviours in a way that is sustainable. Where opportunities to expand network capacity
quickly do exist – such as passenger services on the River Thames – they should be
seized. This has the potential to help reimagine travel around the capital in a way that
endures well beyond the current crisis.

2.1 Creating Streetspace and encouraging active travel

It is vital that Londoners heed the Government guidance to “cycle or walk wherever
possible”, but London First polling showed only an extra 4% of workers planned to do
so once lockdown ended. Policymakers and transport authorities need to take urgent
steps to encourage sustainable, safe, and socially distanced travel. Transport for
London are already heading in the right direction with the Streetspace initiative
providing new cycle lanes and wider pavements. London has however previously been
subjected to hastily implemented re-allocations of roadspace and, as an increasing
number of companies return to business, it will be necessary to ensure that this
temporary adjustment is not having unintended consequences. As the economy begins
to recover it will be important to regularly assess the success of the Streetspace
campaign against its objectives and consideration should be given to the practicality of
making these changes permanent.
2.2 Accelerating the experiment with micro-mobility

London has to date had a chequered experience with micro-mobility but Covid-19 has
highlighted the need for alternatives to private car use and public transport. A long-term
integrated plan to hit the Mayoral Transport Strategy target of 80% of journeys being

taken by public or active transport by 2041 should deliberately enable sustainable “last
mile” connections to and from public transport. Sharing platforms – such as dockless
bikes – and new forms of mobility – such as e-scooters – must form part of this, but it
must be done in a coordinated way. London must learn from the cities that have
liberalised too quickly with resulting problems of pedestrian obstructions, safety risks,
and street space management. London must also recognise that people do not live their
lives according to borough boundaries. The introduction of a pan-London dockless
vehicle bylaw (or similar coordination mechanism), as well as legislation enabling
controlled trials of e-scooters, should be brought forward as soon as possible. Longer-
term it will be critical to recognise that personalisation was underpinning pre-Covid-19
trends. This applies as much to goods and services deliveries as it does to passenger
transport. London needs an integrated freight and deliveries strategy and a dedicated
commissioner in City Hall driving forward a plan to keep this vital part of the city’s
economy moving.
2.3 Designing and implementing a comprehensive road user charging scheme.

At the peak of Covid-19 road charging schemes, including the Congestion Charge and
the Ultra Low Emissions Zone, were suspended. They have rightly been reintroduced
and, in the case of the Congestion Charge, increased. But they are blunt tools in the
face of underlying trends. The Ultra Low Emissions Zone should make itself redundant
as drivers transition to cleaner vehicles, whilst the Congestion Charge has only ever
operated as a flat charge in a small part of central London. Dual pressures mean that it
is now time to revisit how London pays for its roads. On the one hand there is an
unprecedented challenge to TfL’s finances and new sources of revenue will be needed
in the medium to long-term. On the other, there is a short term need to control demand
for road space. As London is highly constrained, and there is little prospect of
expanding the supply of road space, managing demand on London’s roads will remain
an issue beyond the Covid-19 recovery. The next mayoral term should be the one in
which London moves to a second generation of road pricing.

3. International travel
Over 1.5 million jobs across the UK are supported by air transport and more than 40%
of our trade with non-EU countries travels by plane. There are whole sectors of the
economy that simply won’t get back to full strength without thriving international
connections: Britain’s manufacturers who rely on air connections to export goods; our
world-class universities who get £6.9 billion a year from international students; and the
tourist industry that accounts for more than 7% of the national economy. These are some
of the UK’s world-beating businesses and they need a clear plan to get flying again.

3.1 A risk-based approach to international travel

Since Covid-19 struck, this principle has been abandoned in favour of indiscriminate
and indefinite advice not to travel internationally. There is now a mandatory 14-day
quarantine scheme for all arrivals into the UK that will ensure international travel remains

largely grounded. A risk-based approach would allow for bilateral deals with low-risk
countries and key trading partners. It should be coupled with a common international
standard for health checks. These deals will need to take into account the origin of the
plane, train, or ferry arriving into the UK as well as any other countries that the individuals
on board have visited recently. Some may have been reliably tested before departure,
whilst others will need a thorough health screening on arrival. And some, but not all, will
need to be quarantined. The Government should be at the forefront of forging common
international standards and ensuring a controlled return to international travel. A risk-
based approach would also include Foreign Office travel advice being issued on a
case-by-case basis. This has important implications for the validity of travel insurance,
and for airline scheduling. Covid-19 outbreaks have occurred at different times, and
spread with different speeds and severities. Government should return to a risk-based
approach to both inbound and outbound international travel as soon as possible.
3.2 A long tail of support for international travel businesses

As we move into the recovery phase, the Government will increasingly need to
differentiate between different industries. Some companies will get back to work with
relatively little difficulty once lockdown is properly lifted. Others will take months, if not
years, to recover. For the industries that will take longer, uncertainty will compound the
problems caused by Covid-19. Aviation falls firmly in the latter camp with multiple
factors – from lead times for bookings to confidence in public health systems around
the world – meaning that employment support is going to need to be maintained for
longer. A business rates waiver for airports, similar to that which has been offered by
the Scottish Government, would also be significant whilst industry revenues are at, or
close to, zero. Most importantly, the job retention programme must be tapered in a way
that recognises the different requirements in different sectors.
3.3 A long-term strategy to support recovery and growth across the UK

As airlines decide which routes to restart, Government and industry should work closely
together to ensure that the UK returns to being one of the best-connected countries in
Europe. Airlines no longer making use of their slots will need to be encouraged to give
them up to ensure capacity is available and competition enabled. Rethinking our
approach to aviation taxation could support this whilst further incentivising industry-led
decarbonisation plans, as set out by Sustainable Aviation. And if we get this right, the
UK could further develop a long term, high value, strategic advantage in this field.
However, for the sector to flourish, the Government must unequivocally indicate that it
still intends to support growth in the aviation sector. This will allow the private sector to
make investments and maximise the contribution that aviation can make to the recovery.
Surface access improvements, both public sector and market led, should be a priority
alongside a revised National Policy Statement. Government support for growth in
aviation capacity should be integrated with a comprehensive National Infrastructure
Strategy.