JYSK The future of retail after the pandemic - Jesper Bo Jensen, ph.d. Futurist www.fremforsk.dk

The future of retail after the
         pandemic

             JYSK

        Jesper Bo Jensen, ph.d.
                Futurist
           www.fremforsk.dk

We used to live in a
       normal world

▪ Economic slowdown after a long expansion
▪ Retail, e-tail and cross channel, retail still as the most
  important part
▪ Online shopping growth year after year – but rolling out
  shop after shop still a well-known expansion strategy in
  retail
▪ Cities and big cities as the place to live – but a slow
  change towards suburbs and ex-urbs was notable
▪ Work was at the office, in the factory or the hospitals –
  travel from home to work every day – working from
  home was for the few or as an exeption

European Population Growth to 2030:
       The senior Tsunami

EU population projection

Then Covid19 came
     around

World economy not
backon track before 2023

Growth since Q4 2019

All German sectors are hit

From globalization to regionalization
        and slowbalization

The pandemic shock to
        production chains

▪ A cut off in Jan 2020
▪ No good, no spare
  parts, nothing to sell
▪ After China Italy, EU,
  UK, USA and the rest
  of the world were hit
▪ Supply side resilience
  as a reaction

Covid19 as the perfect
       storm

Reshoring production

    Automation of production – robots, digital

    Digital integrations of sub–suppliers

    Supply chain resilience – the closer the better

    CSR and working conditions in the Far East

    Implementation of green production made easier

Work and meetings online
     and from home

Home office

Working at home

Future workflow,
management and leadership

      From instant to total digitalization
      In the future any new process will be planned
      as a digital process from the beginning

      Less face-to-face meetings, and only as
      events with the explicit purpose of being in
      the same room

      We will still meet face-to-face – but only
      when necessary

      Digital management and leadership

House prices continue to rice
   during the pandemic

EU housing prices during the pandemic

Escape the city movement - UK

Decoupling of work
      and home

▪ We will be able to live were we want in the future
▪ The settlement pattern from the industrial society
  will slowly dissolve
▪ All we need is a fast internet connection
▪ We can make our own work schedule every day
▪ Dependency on pendling will decreased
  significantly
▪ …Some day are still days at work – at the old office
▪ Two physical meeting days a week – a new norm?

Nature is a hit during
   the pandemic

▪ Sensibility
▪ A healing nature
▪ A place to be outside town
▪ Meeting place
▪ The opposite of online and
  digital
▪ Organic forms
▪ Age – seniors love nature

Gen Y & Z
          BE GOOD

▪ Companies must be
  sustainable and good in all
  ways and interactions
  (people, animals and natural
  resources)
▪ Climate and Transparency
▪ Recycling – Cradle to
▪ Cradle
▪ Young people!

JYSK and
 Cradle to Cradle

▪ All materials have to be recyclable and able to be
  brought back to its original state
   ▪ Reuse, reduce and recycle
▪ Waste used as raw materials for a new product cycle
▪ Avoid green-washing – CO2 lift offs
▪ We are far away from this in retail, distribution and
  production
▪ If we are to develop cradle-to-cradle principle in
  production, we have many years ahead of us

Online sales

US online retail sales up 44% in 2020

E-commerce
EU countries

UNCTAD and Netcomm Suisse

Online growing fast under
      the pandemic

Online sales will
    continue to grow

▪ Consumers will stay online
▪ Lifestyle change: Stay at home, work online and
  shop online, order home delivery
▪ Online becomes first choice for many consumers
▪ The shift from stores to online sales have
  accelerated at least 5 years during the pandemic
▪ Looking ahead: In 2025 we will have reached the
  same online sales as expected in 2030-35

What will consumers
      want?

▪ Consumer preferences in the future:
▪ Convenient, fast and reliable delivery
▪ Good, smart and new products
▪ Quality and durability – a greening view at
  consumption: Reduce, Reuse and Recycle
▪ Being tempted, getting good offers, getting value
  for money
▪ Connecting with the company (the young ones)

Situational consumption

The future of
      stores

▪ The stores have a future
▪ Will have to rethink the
  concepts
▪ Why go to a crowded place
  and use 30 min to find a
  parking lot?
▪ Upscale the stores and
  make them a place to go –
  not only a storage with a
  counter
▪ Aftersales online

New product – working
       from home

▪ Office furniture, desks, chairs
▪ Ergonomic tables and chairs
▪ Concepts for home office space
▪ Stuff to fill up drawers and shelfs
▪ A portable desk and chair, mayby sun-shells or what we
  need to work outside - work in the garden, in the woods
  and at the beach
▪ A place to eat your lunch – and invite others to co-lunch
  with you

New products –
  moving out of cities

▪ Everything for the garden
  ▪ And some of your costumers want to go all in
▪ Everything for the countryside and the small
  village – a lot to sell
  ▪ …even for staying in the woods
▪ Nature is at hit – products for staying in nature
  and the wilderness
▪ Getting nature into your home – wood, plants,
  seeds even animals etc.

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Jesper Bo Jensen
Fremforsk
Saralyst Allé 53
8270 Højbjerg
E jbj@fremforsk.dk
T 86 11 47 44
M 20 67 45 00