INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE COTTON, TEXTILES, AND GARMENTS INDUSTRY IN TANZANIA - AUGUST 2019

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INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE COTTON, TEXTILES, AND GARMENTS INDUSTRY IN TANZANIA - AUGUST 2019
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN
THE COTTON, TEXTILES, AND
GARMENTS INDUSTRY IN
TANZANIA

AUGUST 2019
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE COTTON, TEXTILES, AND GARMENTS INDUSTRY IN TANZANIA - AUGUST 2019
This investment brief has been built based on ~35 stakeholder interviews
       conducted with key players across the cotton, textiles, and garments value chain

                   Production               Ginning & Yarn    Fabric             Final Product/ Garment   Buyers                  Government/
                                            Processing        Processing         Manufacturing                                    Associations
Completed          • Chato                  Ginning           •   Urafiki        Tanzania                 Global                  • Prime Minister’s
                     Cooperative            • Olam            •   21st century   • Mazava                 • Zara (Inditex)          Office (PMO)
                     Union (CCU)            • Alliance        •   Sunflag        • Tooku                  • Ex-PVH contact        • Textile and
                   • Ukiliguru                                •   Sifa Threads   • Mbeya Knitwear         • East Africa Canvas      Garment
                     Research               Yarn processing                      • Sunflag*                 Limited                 Manufacturers
                     Institute              • Tabotex                            • A to Z Textile*        • Hennes & Mauritz        Association
                   • Tanzania                                                    • 21st Century*            (H&M)                   (TEGAMAT)
                     Cotton Board                                                                                                 • World Bank
                     (TCB)                                                       Global/Regional          Tanzania                  Consultant
                                                                                 • TAL Apparel            • Best Western Hotel    • Textile
                                                                                 • Crystal Group          • Advent Construction     Development
                                                                                 • Village Industry       • Shanta Gold             Unit (TDU)
                                                                                 • Shydee                   Mine/Acacia
                                                                                 • Rainbow packaging      • Muhimbili Hospital
                                                                                                          • Aga Khan Hospital
                                                                                                          • Medical Stores
                                                                                                            Department (MSD)
                                                                                                          • Nabaki Afrika
Outreach           n/a                      Ginning           • Mwatex           Global                   Global
complete, no                                • Gaki            • NIDA             • Carrollas              • Max Fashion
interview                                                                        • Columbia packaging     • Phillips-Van Heusen
conducted                                   Yarn processing                      • Big Agnes                (PVH)
                                            • Dahong                                                      • Walmart

                                                                                                                                                   2
  *These players are vertically integrated in Tanzania
Tanzania is a powerhouse for cotton production in East Africa; 30% of locally
    grown cotton feeds the local textile industry while the rest is exported

 PRODUCTION VOLUMES ACROSS                                                           MA JOR MARKETS FOR LOCAL COTTON
 MA JOR COTTON PRODUCERS IN 2017                                                     IN 2017
 Total production, ‘000 MT                                                           Percentage of total production, % (2017)

                                                           217
                                                                                                            15%         16%

                         78
                                                                                                13%
        32
                                           13
     Ethiopia          Uganda            Kenya           Tanzania
                                                                                                  8%                               30%

 In year 2017 Tanzania was leading in cotton
 production in the EAC region. With a 74% increase in
 cotton harvest in 2019 Tanzania has become a cotton                                                          18%
 powerhouse in the EAC region

                                                                                                       Local market    Bangladesh        Mauritius
 However, 70% of the cotton lint produced in the
 country is exported abroad mainly to Bangladesh,                                                      Export market   Indonesia         Others
 India, and Indonesia. Only 30% of cotton lint is                                                                      India
 consumed locally

Source: FAOSTAT, Cotton production by each country, 2019; UNACTAD, Cotton and its by-products in the                                                 3
united republic of Tanzania, 2016.; OEC, Where does Tanzania export Raw Cotton to?, 2017
The majority of cotton that is sold locally is used to produce traditional fabrics
and garments for local and regional markets
   Input                                          Value-addition activities                                Output
                      Yarn processing             Fabric processing               Garment manufacturing

                                                                                                           Bedsheets

                                                                                                           Curtains
                                                               Finished non-
                  70% of             ~14.6% of               traditional fabric                            T-shirts
                  lint is            yarn is
                  exported           exported                                                              Polo

                                                                                         Garment
                                                                                         factories         Sportwear
                                                                                          • Sunflag
                                                                                          • 21st Century   Denim
                                                                                          • NIDA
Raw cotton            Lint            Yarn        Fabric     Non-traditional
                                                                                                           Uniforms
                                                           fabric for garments

                                                                                                           Shirts, other apparel
                                                                                         Local
                                                                                         tailors
                                                                                                           Kitenge, Kikoy

                   Cotton seed                                                                             Kanga
                  This segment of the value
                  chain is broken down in
                  more detail on the next slide                                                            Maasai shuka
                                                             Traditional fabric

Source: Dalberg interviews                                                                                                         4
Once raw cotton is ginned, cotton seed is further processed into husk, cotton
cake, oil and linters used in a range of products for local markets

      Input                                     Value-addition activities                           Output

                                                                                                    Animals feed
10%-14% of seeds
are reserved for
next season
                                                                                      Husk          Natural Fertilizers
                                                                                      25%-27%

                                                                                                    Soap & Cosmetics

                                                                                      Cotton cake
                                                                                      45%-55%       Pharmaceuticals

                                                                                                    Cooking oil
 Cotton seed*            De-linting          Dehulling        Kernel pressing
                                                              Or extraction           Oil
                                                                                      12%-16%       Margarine

                                                                                                    Mattress stuffing

                                                                                      Linters       Photographic films
                                                                                      8%-10%

* There is 4% waste cotton cumulated across all stages but not shown in the mapping above
                                                                                                                          5
Source: UNCTAD, Cotton and its by-products in the united republic of Tanzania, 2016,
Local garment manufacturers catering to global markets in the US and EU
need to import yarn and/or fabrics to maintain global quality standards

 Input                       Value-addition activities                                Output
                             Fabric processing                Garment manufacturing

                                                                                               T-shirts
                                         85% of fabric used

                                                                                               Denim
Imported fabric

                                                                     Garment                   Baby clothes
                                                                     manufacturing
                                         15% of fabric used          • Mazava
                                                                     • Tooku
                                                                     • A to Z                  Sportwear
Imported yarn                  Locally-manufactured
                               fabric

                                                                                               Polo

      Imported

Source: Dalberg Interviews                                                                                    6
In the long term, Tanzania’s ambition is to improve the quality of locally grown
   cotton such that it can be used in for value-added products in the global market

  The Cotton-To-Clothing Strategy 2016-                                           The Government prioritized the following
  2020 prioritized the following objectives                                       activities to meet these objectives:
  for the cotton value chain:
                                                                                  • Increase production of cotton in Tanzania
   • Improve economic outcomes                                                      to make it the leading cotton producer in
     for farmers                                                                    Tanzania. The long-term target is to attain
                                                                                    one million tonnes by 2023

   • Improve employment                                                           • Improve domestic cotton processing within
     outcomes, including                                                            Tanzania by facilitating investments along
     profitability of the value chain                                               the value chain and expanding value
                                                                                    addition at the AMCOs level

   • Increase export value and                                                    • Facilitate financing through the Tanzania
     volumes to regional and global                                                 Agriculture Development Bank (TADB) to
                                                                                    drive priorities above
     markets

           The Cotton-to-Clothing Strategy has been successful in increasing production, and it will now
                           need to shift its focus on increasing quality in coming years

Source: Government: Our Current, Future Plans for Cotton Sub-Sector (2019); Tanzania’s Cotton to                                  7
Clothing Strategy 2016-2020; Dalberg Interviews
Today, there are various barriers along the value chain that limit Tanzania’s
                  ability to develop value-added products, especially for the global market
                             Production &                                                                                                Garment
                                                              Yarn processing                   Fabric processing                                                             Market
                               Ginning                                                                                                 manufacturing
                       Low quality cotton                 Lack of standalone fabric          Lack of standalone fabric             Garment production by              Tap into US/EU markets
                       Tanzania currently produces        mills for supply of yarn           factories for supply of fabric        importing fabric                   Global buyers are aiming for
                       medium staple cotton, which        In Tanzania, existing fabric       In Tanzania, existing                 Garment manufacturing (that        “80% Africa 20% Asia”
  Global market

                       converts into lower quality        mills are vertically               standalone garment factories          will ultimately drive vertical     sourcing strategy by 2025.
                       yarn and fabric that is not        integrated. Thus, there are no     source imported fabric. There         integration) can first be          This shift in sourcing strategy
                       accepted by global markets.        players to take in any             are no players to take in fabric      tapped into through importing      will drive buyers’ appetite to
                       There are several barriers to      processed yarn from a              from a standalone fabric mill.        fabric. It is least capital- and   push their manufacturers to
                       investing in high-quality          standalone spinning mill even      This is only relevant if quality of   technical-intensive, and           invest in Tanzania
                       cotton, including harvesting       if it imports yarn. This is only   cotton improves                       results in high employment
                       tools, poor ginning                relevant if quality of cotton
                       equipment, availability of         improves
                       high-quality cotton for
                       blending

                       Acceptable cotton quality          Vertical integration by sourcing local cotton                                                               Expand on existing markets
                       for most buyers                    Through vertical integration that sources local cotton, Tanzania can capitalize on and expand               and tap into higher-end
                       The medium staple cotton           existing penetration into local and regional markets. Today, one vertically integrated local                markets
Regional
 market

                       produced today is generally        manufacturer (sourcing local cotton) exports 60% end garment sales to regional markets, and the             Quality of garments (both
                       acceptable by most regional        rest of the 40% to local markets. There is a second vertically integrated player (sourcing local            from a cotton and finishing
                       buyers, but may require            cotton) who exports 20% of its end garment products to regional markets, and the rest of the 80%            lens) produced will have to be
                       upgrading when high-end            to local markets. Both manufacturers sell all their textiles to the local market                            improved if higher-end
                       buyers are targeted                                                                                                                            buyers in e.g. MENA, are
                                                          Vertical integration for new manufacturers that tap into local cotton can be done through 1)                targeted
                                                          integration from within a company or 2) sourcing from standalone suppliers. A strong vertical
                                                          integration model built for local and regional markets build a strong base for vertical integration for
                        Acceptable cotton quality                                                                                                                     Saturated market by
                                                          global markets in the future
                        for all buyers                                                                                                                                Chinese imports
                        The medium staple cotton                                                                                                                      The local market is saturated
market

                                                                                                                                                                      by Chinese imports of
 Local

                        produced today is acceptable
                        for the textiles (e.g. kitenge,                                                                                                               garments and traditional
                        khanga) and garment (e.g. T-                                                                                                                  fabrics (e.g. kitenge). Unless
                        shirts) produced for the local                                                                                                                imports are curbed,
                        market                                                                                                                                        expansion of local production
                                                                                                                                                                      will be difficult

                  = High barrier             = Medium barrier                 = Low barrier
                                                                                                                                                                                                        8
Source: Dalberg stakeholder interviews
Tanzania can take a three-step approach to overcome barriers and create a
                     fully integrated cotton-textiles-garments industry over 10 years
                                   SHORT-TERM                                  MEDIUM-TERM                                     LONG-TERM
                                     0-3 years                                   3-5 years                                      5-10 years
                                       Inconsistent quality                         Improved quality of                           High-quality
     Production

                                       of local raw cotton                          local raw cotton                              local raw cotton

                       • The current quality of cotton does not    • Efforts to improve quality of cotton        • Over time, the quality of Tanzanian
                         meet global standards for garment           production and handling will lead to          cotton will improve and it will meet the
                         manufacturing catering to global            improvements in staple length, which can      quality standards and consistency
                         markets. This cotton can be used in the     then be blended with higher-quality           required by global markets
                         regional and local markets only             cotton in the medium-term
                                                                                                                                                              9
    Global markets

                        Imported yarn          Garment                Fabric                   Yarn processing      Cotton lint           High-quality
                        or fabric              manufacturing          processing                                    Ginning               local raw cotton

                      • Investors set up garment manufacturing     • Investors (including existing garment       • Manufacturers fully integrate into the
                        in Tanzania to access global markets         manufacturers) begin to invest in fabric      local value chain by sourcing fabric
                      • Manufacturers rely on imported fabric in     processing and then yarn processing as        and/or yarn made from local Tanzanian
                        the short term                               the quality of cotton begins to improve       cotton, which will have better quality

                                                                                         x2                                               x4
Regional and local

                                                                                         the current                                      the current
                        Garment                 Local raw            Garment                                      Garment
    markets

                                                                                         export value                                     export value
                        manufacturing           cotton               manufacturing                                manufacturing
                      • Manufacturers are all fully integrated     • The improving quality of cotton allows      • The high quality of local cotton allows
                        into the local value chain today, with       manufacturers to expand into new              manufacturers to expand into new
                        many players vertically integrated from      products and regional markets within          regions, such as the Middle East and
                        ginning to garment manufacturing             local, EAC and SADC markets. This             North Africa, and to expand access to
                                                                     increases the volume of local cotton          higher-value garments
                                                                     flowing into local industries
                                                                                                                                                              9
The Government of Tanzania can take several steps in the short-, medium-, and
                     long-term to achieve this vision of full value chain integration

                                   SHORT-TERM                                   MEDIUM-TERM                                     LONG-TERM
                                     0-3 years                                    3-5 years                                      5-10 years
                       • Improve harvesting and post-harvesting      • As quality of cotton gradually improves,   • As quality of cotton begins to optimize to
                         handling techniques to improve quality of     blend local cotton with imported higher-     the capacity of the existing seed variety,
     Production

                         cotton for further value addition             quality cotton from neighboring              incentivize investments in ginning
                       • Revive or invest in drip irrigation           countries                                    factories focused on the use of rollers
                         schemes to provide consistent water                                                        instead of sawing machinery
                         levels to cotton farms

                       • Expand number of EPZA sites                 • Provide financing for investments in new   • Create tax incentives/breaks for
                       • Finance ready-to-go premises for rent or      or upgrading fabric and yarn processing      manufacturers across the value chain to
    Global markets

                         upgrade existing facilities not in use      • Create tax incentives/breaks for             use local raw materials, e.g. removal of
                       • Develop a fund to subsidize worker            investors using local raw materials          VAT similar to incentive provided in
                         wages during training period                • Provide a power and water tariff subsidy     Kenya
                       • Provide low-cost financing for garment        for fabric and yarn processors
                         manufacturers ($3-4 million)
                       • Provide a power tariff subsidy

                       • Provide a price-based subsidy to farmers    • Launch the Tanzanian Mercantile            • Improve market linkages into additional
Regional and local

                         to hedge against price fluctuations,          Exchange to develop financial                markets for different garment varieties,
                         similar to countries like China               instruments that can provide a hedge         such as Middle East as well as other
    markets

                       • Respect and strengthen collection of          against price fluctuations                   markets
                         existing import levy on garments and        • Invest in improvements in machinery to
                         traditional fabrics                           improve efficiency of fabric and yarn
                       • Improve market linkages into regional         processing, where relevant
                         markets for different garment varieties     • Provide power and water tariff relief to
                                                                       reduce cost of production
                                                                                                                                                                 10
In 5-10 years, Tanzania can build a fully-integrated value chain to supply local
     cotton yarn and fabric to ~20 garment manufacturers serving all markets

      Raw cotton                   Lint processing                  Yarn processing                          Fabric             Garment
      production                                                                                           processing         manufacturing

                                    3                               5                                5                        ~20
                                    Lint processors in 5            Yarn processors in 5             Fabric processors in 5   Garment manufacturers
                                    years                           years                            years                    in 5 years*

     120,400 MT                     48,200 MT                       43,000 MT                        39,000 MT                120 million
     of cotton required to          of cotton lint produced         of all yarn required             of all fabric required   pieces of all garments
     meet demand from 20                                                                                                      processed
     garment manufacturers

     60,185                         900                             3,000                            2,500                    20,000
     Farmers engaged                Lint/ginning workers            Yarn workers across all          Fabric workers across    Garment workers
                                    across all investors            investors                        all investors            across all investors

                                    $1.5 million                    $10-20 million** $10-20 million**                         $3-4 million
                                    Minimum investment              Minimum investment               Estimated investment     Investment required
                                    required for one                required for one                 required for one         for one processor
                                    processor                       processor                        processor
   DRAFT ONLY
Note: *The number of garment manufacturers in 5 years is based on the number of manufacturers in
Ethiopia by 2017; **The investment size of $10 million is estimated for a fabric processor with 8,400 MT                                               11
optimal capacity, however, this needs further validation
In the short term, Tanzania can start by exploring two specific investment
opportunities in the sector

1   I M M E D I AT E O P P O R T U N I T Y I N        2   M A N U FA C T U R I N G E X PA N S I O N
    G A R M E N T M A N U FA C T U R I N G                INTO REG IO NAL AND LO CAL
    F O R G LO BAL MAR K ET S                             MARKETS

    There is an immediate opportunity for                 Simultaneously, there is an opportunity for
    Tanzania to tap into garment manufacturing            Tanzania’s fully integrated local
    to supply to the global markets in the US and         manufacturers to expand into regional and
    EU                                                    local markets

    • In the short-term, garment manufacturers            • Although there are opportunities along the
      rely on imported fabric or yarn to ensure             value chain, Tanzania can achieve greater
      quality standards are maintained                      margins in garment manufacturing than
                                                            other manufacturing along the value chain
    • In the medium to long term, garment
      manufacturers integrate vertically into local       • In order to expand into these markets,
      cotton value chain                                    Tanzania needs to focus on unlocking
                                                            existing bottlenecks rather than attracting
                                                            new investments

                                                                                                          12
IMMEDIATE OPPORTUNITY
          1

     IN GARMENT
  MANUFACTURING FOR
   GLOBAL MARKETS
1
     China alone accounted for USD 145 billion of global apparel/garment exports
     in 2017, while all of Africa exported USD 9.5 billion only

    G LO BAL DEMAND                                      G L O B A L S U P P LY                 T A N Z A N I A ’ S S U P P LY
    • Total global trade of apparel was                  • China, EU, Bangladesh and            • The total value of apparel exports
      valued at USD 455 billion while                      Vietnam remained the world’s top       in 2017 was USD 60 million, a 1.5-
      total global trade of textiles was                   four apparel/garment exporters in      fold increase from 2014. Non-knit
      valued at USD 296 billion in 2017                    2017, accounting for 76% of the        garments account for 70% of
                                                           market share                           apparel exports
    • EU, US and Japan remained the top
      three importers of apparel in 2017,                • China is exporting less              • The top export destinations for
      together importing 62% of global                     apparel/garments and is playing an     knit and non-knit apparel is the
      apparel. China is quickly becoming                   increasingly critical role as a        United States (31%), South Africa
      one of the world’s largest                           textile supplier for many apparel-     (17%) and Kenya (5%)
      apparel/garment importers,                           exporting countries in Asia. For
      experiencing nearly 17% annual                       example: 47% of Bangladesh’s
      growth since 2010, which suggests                    textile imports came from China in
      China’s declining dominance in the                   2017, up from 39% in 2005. Similar
      apparel/garment industry                             trends are seen in Cambodia (up
                                                           from 30% to 65%), Vietnam (23% to
    • The shifting pattern of garment                      50%) etc.
      manufacturing from developed to
      developing countries is also
      influencing diversification of textile
      imports. EU, US and China were the
      top three largest importers of
      textiles in 2017 (38% of the global
      market), however, their import
      share has dropped significantly
      from over 50% in the 2000s
                                                                                                                                       14
     Source: WTO (2018), Just-Style Apparel Sourcing Strategy, ITC Trademap 2018
1
        Global buyers are aiming for “80% Africa 20% Asia” sourcing strategy by 2025 to
        capitalize on lower costs of production and current US import tariffs on China

                                                                                                                China
                                                                                                                US import tariffs on China have led
                                                                                                                to waves of factories closing down,
                                                                                                                many of which moved to Vietnam

                                                                                                                Bangladesh
                                                                                                                Bangladesh will not be able to
                                                                                                                provide the power supply needed
                                                                                                                if the capacity of manufacturers
                                                                                                                increases significantly

EAC
Top global buyers (e.g. PVH, H&M) are                                                                           Vietnam
shifting their sourcing base to EAC,                                                                            Vietnam is the next target for US
aiming for a “80% Africa 20% Asia”        India                                                                 import tariffs, which does not
split by 2025. This is both an interest   India does not provide a very                                         guarantee investors’ long-term
in diversifying investments or sourcing   conducive business                                                    stability
from across countries. They have          environment for foreign
                                          investors                       Sri Lanka
started with Kenya and Ethiopia, and
                                                                          Sri Lanka’s production costs have
aim to diversify further. One company
                                                                          risen significantly in recent years
will start sourcing from a Tanzanian
manufacturer this year
                                                                                                                                                    15
Source: Dalberg stakeholder interviews
When diversifying into East Africa, global buyers focus on garment manufacturing
1         in the short-term, and vertical integration into local value chains in the medium to
          long-term
                       YEAR 1-3                               YEAR 3-5                                   YEAR 5+

                    GARMENT                                   FA B R I C                                YA R N
               M A N U FAC T U R I N G                      PROCESSING                               PROCESSING+
        Buyers’ demand drive the entire value  Garment manufacturers’ demand                Fabric processors’ demand drive
          chain production. As the final             drive the rest of the value chain         the rest of the value chain
          downstream activity, garment               production. Once garment                  production. Once fabric processors
          manufacturing is the closest step to       producers are in EAC, they drive          are in EAC, they drive investments
          meet this demand                           investments in fabric processing          in yarn processing using local
                                                                                               cotton
        High labor intensive, resulting into      × Highly capital- and technical-
          lower costs for investors and high         intensive, resulting in higher costs    × Highly capital- and technical-
          employment outcomes                        for investors and low employment          intensive, resulting in higher costs
                                                     outcomes                                  for investors and low employment
        Least capital- and technical-
                                                                                               outcomes
          intensive, requiring limited capital     × The garment producer requires
          and technical know-how upfront             imported high-quality fabric. Local     × The fabric processor requires
                                                     cotton does not often have the            imported high-quality yarn. Local
        There are fewer bottlenecks to              quality required, hence not used in       cotton does not often have the
          unlock                                     the short-term. Fabric                    quality required, hence not used in
       × The buyer requires imported high-           manufacturers integrate into the          the short-term
          quality fabric. Local cotton does not      local cotton value chain in the long-
          often have the quality required, hence     run
          not used in the short-term

                                                                                                                                      16
    Source: Dalberg interviews
1
          There is an immediate opportunity to attract garment manufacturers to
          Tanzania, relying on imported fabric in the short-term

           Potential target buyers for Tanzania, who have begun or shown interest in sourcing from East Africa,
           particularly Ethiopia, include but are not limited to:

           There are three top-tier manufacturers of export garments in Tanzania: (Tooku – denims, Mazava –
           sportswear, A to Z – knitted wear). These manufacturers lack the capacity to meet the increasing demand
           of large volumes from buyers. As a result, there is an opportunity for new investments or expansion in
           garment manufacturing in Tanzania to meet this growing demand

           Similar to global trends, all top-tier manufacturers in Tanzania who export garments to global markets
           import fabric or yarn from China and India. The imported fabric has long length staple that Tanzania
           cannot currently provide.

           Tanzania can position itself for investments in garment manufacturing, as global buyers shift their
           sourcing strategy to “80% Africa 20% Asia” by 2025. Tanzania can benefit from the following:
           • Direct access to exports – by importing fabric, garments can be produced at a high quality to tap into
             export markets through AGOA and EBA incentives
           • Lower capital costs and technical requirements – garment manufacturing is c. 2-2.5x less costly than yarn
             and fabric processing due to lower capital requirements. It also requires less technicalities
           • High employment – Garment manufacturing employs c. 1.5-2x more workers than yarn and fabric
             processing
                                                                                                                         17
    Source: Dalberg interviews
1
         Investment case: A USD 3-4 million investment in garment manufacturing is
         sufficient to set up a factory producing 500k pieces per month

          INVESTMENT ECONOMICS                                                                   UNIT COST BREAKDOWN
          A minimum investment of USD 3-4 million in a                                           USD/T-shirt2
          garment factory in an EPZA with capacity to                                                                                                          1.8
          produce 500,000 pieces/month
                                                                                                                                                  0.3
          The factory would likely produce low-complex
          products, such as knitted wear, for sale to
          export markets. Export markets include US/EU                                                                             0.4
          buyers of basic goods, e.g., PVH
                                                                                                      1.0            0.1
           Description                       Estimate
           CAPEX requirement1                c. USD 2 M                                                                               Illustrative profits
                                                                                                                                         as this entirely
           Number of                         1,000                                                                                   depends on what a
                                                                                                                                       buyer decides to
           employees                                                                                                                 pay a manufacturer

           Time to breakeven                 2+ years
           Production volume                 500,000
                                             pieces/month
                                                                                                    Raw         Labor           Utilities       Profit       Revenue
                                                                                               materials/inputs

    Note: 1. CAPEX requirement includes machinery and construction costs. 2. Unit cost breakdown is illustrative using T-shirt as an example, and
    excludes costs such as import, export, and transport costs. Total unit cost usually ranges from USD 1.5-2/T-shirt, and profits depend on what a
    buyer decides to pay the manufacturer                                                                                                                              18
    Source: Dalberg interviews
Tanzania will need to create incentives to attract investments in
1    garment manufacturing and in the long-run, integrate vertically into
     the local value chain

    A INCENTIVIZE INVESTORS INTO                         B   I N C E N T I V I Z E I N T E G R AT I O N
      G A R M E N T M A N U FA C T U R I N G                 I N T O L O C A L VA L U E C H A I N

       Tanzania can incentivize investors to tap into        Tanzania can create the right incentives to
       the immediate opportunity in garment                  encourage vertical integration into the local
       manufacturing                                         cotton value chain in the long-run

       • Foreign investors focus on cost advantages,         • Vertical integration often starts with fabric
         delivery speed and political stability. These         manufacturing, and then expands into yarn
         can determine incentive structures the                manufacturing over time
         Government puts in place
                                                             • Vertical integration can either be done
       • Local investors in current or new garment             through the garment investors own
         manufacturing require incentives that can             investments into fabric or yarn processing,
         make them equally competitive in the global           or through independent processors
         markets as investors based within EPZAs in            providing a service to a network of garment
         Tanzania                                              manufacturers. This is determined by the
                                                               type or sensitivity of the product quality and
                                                               oversight

                                                                                                                19
A
    INCENTIVIZING INVESTORS
    INTO GARMENT
    MANUFACTURING
1A
     Improving overall attractiveness to draw one ‘lead goose’ foreign garment
     investor can bring in waves of buyers and manufacturers

                  FLYING GEESE PARADIGM                                          LEAD GOOSE GARMENT INVESTMENT IN ETHIOPIA

                                                                                 • This phenomenon has also been seen on the investor
                                                                                   level, as garment manufacturing moved into East
                                                                                   Africa, primarily Ethiopia
                                                                                 • In Ethiopia, PVH (buyer) and Huajian Group
                                                                                   (manufacturer) played the ‘lead goose’ roles that
                                                                                   attracted other buyers and manufacturers to build
                                                                                   the garment industry Ethiopia has today

     • The Flying Geese Paradigm (FGP) is a concept                              LEAD GOOSE GARMENT INVESTMENT IN TANZANIA
       used to describe transformation of industries
       within individual regions or countries                                    • Similar to Ethiopia, Tanzania can encourage one first
                                                                                   sizeable ‘lead goose’ garment investment that can
     • The FGP was first used by Akamatsu to                                       facilitate the attraction of other investments
       describe East Asia’s catch-up with the West.
       In the East Asia scenario, the lead goose                                 • In many instances, this scenario works better when
       meant introduction of a new industry that led                               investors move into one EPZA where efforts of
       to the introduction of more advanced                                        consolidating resources are focused
       industries over time

     Source: A Historical Pattern of Economic Growth in Developing Countries (Akamatsu, 1962),
     “Multilevel Flying Geese and Spatially Concentrated Investment: Building Light Manufacturing in                                       21
     Africa” (Mawji, 2017), Tanzania’s Industrialization Journey, 2016-2056 (2017)
Governmental level invitation, commitments, and ability to deliver on
1A     commitments are critical to attract and maintain top foreign buyers and
       manufacturers
     PRESIDENTIAL LEVEL                                                       GOVERNMENT
         I N V I TAT I O N                                                    COMMITMENTS
      Former Prime Minister of                                        PVH/Ethiopia Case Study
       Ethiopia Meles Zenawi
       personally went to China and                                     PVH has seen many
       invited Huajian Group to set                                      impressive national plans,
       up shoe factory operations in                                     but what impressed PVH
       Ethiopia                                                          about Ethiopia was the
                                                                         government’s willingness
      Former President of                                               and ability to deliver on its          A ‘lead goose’
       Uzbekistan Islam Karimov                                          stated objectives                     investor will be
       personally invited Daewoo
       to set up joint-venture                                          While neighboring countries
                                                                                                              attracted to invest
       automotive operations in                                          such as Kenya fell through on            in Tanzania
       Uzbekistan                                                        certain commitments despite
                                                                         providing higher labor
      Founding father of Singapore                                      productivity, Ethiopia
       Lee Kuan Yew personally                                           worked diligently and
       attended CEO forums in                                            transparently to make sure
       New York and made a case                                          that PVH’s needs were met
       for companies to set up in
       Singapore

       Source: “Multilevel Flying Geese and Spatially Concentrated Investment: Building Light Manufacturing
       in Africa” (Mawji, 2017), “Looking Beyond the Horizon: A case study of PVH’s commitment to                                   22
       Ethiopia’s Hawassa Industrial Park” (World Bank, 2017)
1A
         In addition to Government commitment, top foreign brands have four key
         considerations when selecting locations for garment manufacturing

            QUALITY                                   COST                              SPEED                          S TA B I L I T Y
     • Quality is a ‘must-have’             • Key factors that impact costs    • Key factors that impact speed • Key factors that impact
       factor for investors, driven           of production include fixed        include worker efficiency        stability include political (e.g.
       primarily by buyer                     costs (e.g. built-in               levels, consistency levels and   risk of war) and economic (e.g.
       requirements                           infrastructure) and variable       speed of transportation (lead    access to FOREX) risks
     • Key factors that impact                costs (e.g. electricity)           time)                          • Tanzania has a 20% political
       quality range from the cotton        • Tanzania’s relatively low        • Low worker productivity is       stability premium and easier
       quality itself to the results of       labor costs is core to its value   similar across East Africa,      access to FOREX, making her
       product handling (e.g. sewing          proposition. However, poor         however, significantly lower     more attractive for investors
       skills of a worker)                    labor productivity (50-60% of      than global standards. Lower • Manufacturers who have
     • Tanzania’s cotton of medium            international levels) increases    productivity is slightly         decided to invest in Tanzania
       staple does not meet top               overall costs.                     mitigated by low labor costs     expressed that the country’s
       global buyers’ standards that        • Tanzania also has high           • Tanzania’s lengthy and costly      high stability is a crucial
       require higher quality cotton          construction, electricity and      trade and logistic procedures      factor that drew them to
       of long staple                         water costs relative to            is perceived to be a challenge     Tanzania as an investment
     • Tanzania can invest in                 regional peers. Tanzania is        by buyers. Tanzania is             destination
       improving the quality of               currently making investments       currently improving custom
       cotton in the short-term and           in electricity and ports that is   processes – including length
       integrating into the global            likely to improve Tanzania’s       and cost of processes –
       value chain in the long-run            competitiveness as                 through the Blueprint. These
                                              improvements are realized          improvements can improve
                                                                                 lead time for shipments

                                                                                                                                                      23
         Source: Dalberg stakeholder interviews
1A
         Tanzania will need to improve investments in plug-and-play premises to be
         competitive regionally to attract foreign investments for global exports
                           Tanzania                  Kenya                            Ethiopia                   Recommendations
Cross-cutting incentives
Incentives                 Key incentives include:   Key incentives include:         Key incentives include:     •   Similar to Ethiopia, low-interest loans can be
                           • Tax holiday for 10      • Tax holiday for 10 years      • Tax holiday for 8-10          offered to upgrade the technology of the sector
                             years                   • VAT exemption and               years                     •   Similar to Kenya, Tanzania could offer VAT
                           • VAT exemption on          customs import duty on        • Duty-free import of           exemption for EPZA manufacturers who source
                             utilities and             inputs, as well as on local     raw materials and             raw materials locally. This will become
                             construction              purchases of goods and          capital goods                 increasingly important as garment manufacturers
                             materials                 services supplied by          • Loans at an interest          pursue vertical integration in the long-run
                           • Duty-free import          companies in the Kenyan         as low as 3-4%
                             duty on capital           customs territory               interest are offered
                             goods and raw           • Investors who construct         to upgrade the
                             materials                 their buildings are able to     technology of the
                           • Duty-free access          refund the costs                sector
                             through AGOA            • Duty-free access through      • Duty-free access
                             (US)/EBA (EU)             AGOA, EBA                       through AGOA, EBA
Fixed costs
Plug and Play premises     Partial                   Complete                        Complete                    •   Option 1: TADB can set up a fund to invest in
                                                                                                                     building factory sheds across strategic EPZAs.
                                                                                                                     EPZA can focus on building all premises in one
                                                                                                                     industrial park, and replicate for others
                                                                                                                 •   Option 2: Leverage existing facilitates that are not
                                                                                                                     in use (e.g. mills, factories) to be upgraded and
                                                                                                                     folded into EPZA premises for new investors
Premises for expansion     Restricted                Unrestricted                     Unrestricted               •   EPZA can expand number of EPZA sites to attract
                                                                                                                     new investors and encourage expansion of
                                                                                                                     existing investors
Road infrastructure        Road quality varies       Most roads are in poor           Most roads are in poor     •   Road infrastructure outside of the Central Zone
                           greatly across the        condition                        condition, especially in       (e.g. Lake Zone, Southern Highlands) can be
                           country                                                    rural areas                    improved

        = High barrier         = Medium barrier            = Low barrier
 Source: Dalberg stakeholder interviews, Tanzania Cotton to Clothing Strategy (2016-2020), World Bank                                                                  24
 “Ease of Doing Business” Report (2019), Dalberg Garments Industry in Ethiopia Report (2017)
1A
           Tanzania will need to decrease costs of electricity and water to be competitive
           regionally to attract foreign investments for global exports
                                  Tanzania                     Kenya                       Ethiopia                    Recommendations
 Variable Costs
 Labor costs                      USD 60-70/month              USD 110-150/month           USD 50-60/month             • With higher labor costs than Ethiopia,
                                                                                                                         Tanzania workers can be better trained to
                                                                                                                         have higher productivity
 Electricity costs1               USD 0.1/kWh                  USD 0.1/kWh                 USD 0.02-0.04/kWh           • Tanzania’s electricity costs can be lowered to
                                                                                                                         match that of Ethiopia through a power
                                                                                                                         subsidy
                                                                                                                       • Power supply stability should be improved,
                                                                                                                         especially as upstream activities (e.g. fabric
                                                                                                                         mills) will require consistent power supply
 Water costs1                     USD 0.89/m3                  USD 0.62/m3                 USD 0.12/m3                 • Tanzania’s water cost can be lowered to
                                                                                                                         match those of Kenya and Ethiopia,
                                                                                                                         particularly with fabric manufacturing
 Import customs costs2            USD 1725                     USD 948                     USD 870                     • Tanzania’s import border compliance cost
                                                                                                                         (USD 1350) need to be significantly reduced
 40 FT container factory to       USD 850-2000                 USD 885                     USD 1590                    • Transport costs could be lowered if existing
 port costs                                                                                                              railways are able to transport cargo
 Export clearance costs2          USD 1435                     USD 334                     USD 347                     • Tanzania’s export border compliance cost
                                                                                                                         (USD 1160) need to be reduced
 40 FT shipping costs3            US: USD 1500-2500            US: USD 1500-2500           US: USD 1300-1800           NA
                                  EU: USD 2000-2400            EU: USD 1800-2200           EU: USD 1300-1800

      = High barrier           = Medium barrier              = Low barrier
Note: 1. Electricity and water unit costs are values before VAT exemption. 2. Import and export costs include border
and documentary compliance costs. They are sourced from the “Ease of Doing Business” Report, and may be
adjusted for garment/textile imports and exports. 3. Shipping costs are provided by shipping companies
Source: Dalberg stakeholder interviews, Tanzania Cotton to Clothing Strategy (2016-2020), World Bank “Ease of
Doing Business” Report (2019), Dalberg Garments Industry in Ethiopia Report (2017), Addis Ababa Water and                                                               25
Sewage Authority, Nairobi Water and Sewage Company
1A
            Factory construction costs in Tanzania are 43% higher than Ethiopia because
            Ethiopia builds factory sheds for potential investors

            Tanzania – costs of investing in a 500k pieces/month                              Ethiopia – costs of investing in a 500k pieces/month
            capacity garment factory, USD                                                     capacity garment factory, USD

3,000,000                                                                         3,000,000

2,500,000                                                                         2,500,000

                                       1,260,000                225

2,000,000                                                                         2,000,000

1,500,000                                                                         1,500,000
                                                                                                                       1,260,000              0

1,000,000         930,000                                                         1,000,000

 500,000                                                                           500,000

                                                                                                       0
       0                                                                                 0
              Construction           Machinery             Land Lease                            Construction        Machinery           Land lease

            TADB can set up a fund to invest in building factory sheds across strategic EPZAs or upgrade existing unused
                                          factories into potential EPZA sites for investors
Note: All costs above are given by manufacturers and adjusted accordingly to the calculated capacity. China
and US are used as illustrative import (raw materials) and export (end products) destinations.                                                        26
Source: Dalberg interviews
1A
            Operating costs in Tanzania are 28% higher than in Ethiopia, primarily driven by
            high electricity costs, followed by import customs and shipping costs to the US
            Tanzania – costs of investing in a 500k pieces/month                             Ethiopia – costs of investing in a 500k pieces/month
            capacity garment factory, USD                                                    capacity garment factory, USD
1,800,000
                                                          741,700 1,850 1,200 2,960 7,400
1,700,000

1,600,000

1,500,000

1,400,000

1,300,000                                                                                                                                                               5,700
                                                                                                                                            271,000 310   1,590   720
1,200,000

1,100,000

1,000,000                                        60,000                                                                            55,000
                                       894,000                                                                           894,000
 900,000

 800,000

 700,000

 600,000

 500,000

 400,000

 300,000

 200,000

 100,000
            3,225 5,930 9,000 1,200                                                           1,000 5,630 4,480 1,590
       0
            Rent Shipping Import Port to Raw Labor ElectricityWater Factor Export Shipping    Rent Shipping Import Port to Raw Labor Electricity Water Factor Export Shipping
                   from customs factory material                     y to clearance to US            from customs factory material                      y to clearance to US
                  China                                              port                           China                                               port

      Current investments in infrastructure projects will likely reduce the cost of electricity in the country. In the
                    interim, a power tariff subsidy would help improve Tanzania’s competitiveness
Note: All costs above are given by manufacturers and adjusted accordingly to the calculated capacity. China and
US are used as illustrative import (raw materials) and export (end products) destinations.                                                                                      27
Source: Dalberg interviews
1A
         Tanzania will also need to improve labor productivity and reduce custom costs
         to be competitive regionally to attract foreign investments for global exports
                                 Tanzania                     Kenya                       Ethiopia                 Recommendations
Speed
Labor unit productivity1         20 T-shirts/day              25 T-shirts/day             20 T-shirts/day          • Tanzania can provide a fund to support all
                                 Although similar to                                                                 manufacturers to conduct training before or
                                 regional levels, global                                                             while investments are made (e.g. scale
                                 standards are at 42 T-                                                              National Skills Development Programme)
                                 shirts/day                                                                        • Tanzania can ease barriers to accessing
                                                                                                                     foreign trainers required for training
Import customs days2             27                           10                          11                       • Tanzania’s import border (240 hours) and
                                                                                                                     documentary (402 hours) hours need to be
                                                                                                                     significantly reduced
Export clearance days2           8                            1.5                         5                        • Tanzania’s export border and documentary
                                                                                                                     hours (both at 96 hours) need to be
                                                                                                                     significantly reduced
Shipping days3                   US: c. 42 days               US: c. 42 days              US: c. 32 days           NA
                                 EU: c. 30 days               EU: c. 27 days              EU: c. 20 days
Stability
Finance fluidity & FOREX         Medium                       Medium-High                 Low                      • Banks can lower collateral requirements for
                                                                                                                     working capital and other financing
Lending rates                    18%                          14-18%                      8.5%                     • Banks can lower lending rates, possibly
                                                                                                                     through deploying development capital
Country stability                High                         Medium                      Low                      • The Government can capitalize on Tanzania’s
                                                                                                                     high stability to attract investors

       = High
 Note: 1.      barrier
          T-shirt                 = Medium
                  production is used         barrier
                                     as a garment              = Low barrier
                                                  example to compare  productivities across countries. 2. Import
 and export days include border and documentary compliance time. They are sourced from the “Ease of Doing
 Business” Report, and may be adjusted for garment/textile imports and exports. 3. Shipping days are provided
 by shipping companies. Source: Dalberg stakeholder interviews, Tanzania Cotton to Clothing Strategy (2016-
 2020), World Bank “Ease of Doing Business” Report (2019), Dalberg Garments Industry in Ethiopia Report                                                            28
 (2017)
1A
       Labor productivity accounts for the binding constraint in determining entry
       and expanding investments within a country

             CHALLENGES                                     C A S E S T U D Y: N AT I O N A L S K I L L S
                                                            DEV ELOPM ENT PROGRA M M E
     • Labor productivity has become a binding              • The National Skills Development Programme (2015-2021) is a
       constraint for existing foreign and domestic           program under the Prime Minister’s Office – Labour, Youth,
       garment and textiles manufacturers                     Employment and Persons with disabilities aimed to improve the skills
     • First, there is a lack of trained workers, largely     and knowledge of the national workforce to cope with competitive
       impacting garment manufacturing. In garment            landscapes in local and international markets
       manufacturing, labor productivity in Tanzania        • To achieve set objectives, the program focused on increasing the
       is on 50%-60% of global average                        availability of skilled labor for garment manufacturing. PMO entered
     • Second, there is a lack of expertise for               into an MOU with various Garment Manufacturers and provided daily
       technical roles which contribute to the                allowances to laborers while garment manufacturers invested in
       majority of positions in textiles processing. For      training.
       technical roles, it has become increasingly          • To date, the government has disbursed a total of TZS 330 million to
       difficult for expatriates with skilled expertise       1000 trainee workers at Tanzania Tooku Garment Company Limited,
       to obtain work permits in Tanzania                     as daily allowances in the first 3 months of initial training. This
     • Currently, VETA supervisors are not well-              provided some relief to the recipient company, primarily
       trained and hence cannot properly train their
       students. VETA equipment is also too                 P OTE NTI A L SO L UTIO N
       obsolete, resulting in students needing to learn
       from scratch when they start work at a factory       • Tanzania can either set up a TZS 6-8 billion fund to support training
                                                              of 20,000 garment workers for 5 new or existing investors interested
     • It can take up to 2 years to train their staff         in expanding garment manufacturing for export markets, similar to
       and bringing productivity levels up. Skills            the National Skills Development Programme
       Development Levy (SDL) Fund paid for by
       manufacturers has not been effectively used to       • Alternatively, Tanzania can set up a TZS 240 million fund that
       upskill labor for the industry                         supports the training of 200 supervisors who in turn can train 20,000
                                                              workers. On average, one manager would supervise 50-100 factory
                                                              workers
                                                                                                                                      29
      Source: Dalberg stakeholder interviews
1A
                            Tanzania’s political stability and easier access to FOREX could make it a more
                            ideal long-term investment destination versus Ethiopia

                                                                  Tanzania                            Ethiopia                             Tanzania Premium %
                              Political risk – short-term         4                                   6                                    33%
                              (on a scale of 1-7, 1=lowest,
     Export transactions

                              7=highest)                          • Likelihood of a risk caused by political and assimilated events, e.g. political unrest, natural
                                                                    disaster, connected to cross-border transactions with a risk horizon of up to 1 year
                              Political risk – medium/long        5                                   6                                    17%
                              term
                                                                  • Likelihood of a risk caused by political and assimilated events, e.g. political unrest, natural
                              (on a scale of 1-7, 1=lowest,
                                                                    disaster, connected to cross-border transactions with a risk horizon beyond 1 year
                              7=highest)
                              Commercial risk                     Above average                       Average                              NA
                              (on a scale of 1-7, 1=lowest,
                                                                  • Commercial factors that affect the payment capacity of all debtors/obligors in a country include
                              7=highest)
                                                                    currency depreciation, high interest rates, an economic recession, widespread corruption etc.
                              Political violence risk             4                                   6                                    33%
                              (on a scale of 1-7, 1=lowest,
                                                                  • Political violence refers to a concept broader than ‘war’ and include i) ‘terrorism’ and ii) political
                              7=highest)
                                                                    violence damage. Acts of both internal and external conflicts and conflict potential are taken into
     Direct investments

                                                                    consideration
                              Expropriation and government        5                                   5                                    0%
                              action risk
                                                                  • Expropriation risk encompasses all discriminatory measures taken by a host government which
                              (on a scale of 1-7, 1=lowest,
                                                                    deprive the investor of its investment without any adequate compensation, e.g. events of
                              7=highest)
                                                                    embargo, change of regime
                              Currency inconvertibility and       5                                   6                                    17%
                              transfer restriction risk
                                                                  • The currency inconvertibility and transfer restriction risk refers to the inability to convert and
                              (on a scale of 1-7, 1=lowest,
                                                                    transfer out of the host country any funds related to the investment
                              7=highest)

                           = High barrier          = Medium barrier
                                                                                                                                                                             30
     Source: Credendo Credit Insurance Group
1A
           Further, Tanzania will need to provide comparative incentives to local investors
           similar to those provided to investors in EPZAs

          OVERVIEW
            • There is 1 large investor manufacturing higher-quality garments for global markets. Another player currently
              exports to Europe, they export comparatively smaller volumes of garments that fetch lower prices
            • Local investors tend to use a 60%-40% strategy in entering into global markets, 60% of their production is sold in
              export markets and 40% in local and regional markets
            • Tanzania will need to provide comparative incentives to investors outside EPZAs, including the current incentives
              (tax breaks on imports) as well as the proposed incentives (e.g. labor productivity fund)

            Expand existing incentives provided to foreign                 Introduce additional incentives for both foreign and
            investors to local investors outside EPZAs                     local investors*

            • Tanzania can expand existing incentives provided             • Premises: Tanzania can open up plug and play
              to investors outside EPZAs. Currently, very few                premises for investors through upgrading existing
              local investors access EPZAs and many are likely to            unused factories and investing in new buildings
              shift their existing manufacturing sites for export          • Power tariff subsidy: In addition to keeping
              markets. This includes opening up existing                     existing VAT exempt on utilities, Tanzania can offer
              incentives available to investors outside EPZAs,               a power tariff subsidy to lower the cost of
              including:                                                     electricity
               • Tax incentives: EPZA can provide a tax relief on          • Labor productivity: Tanzania can open up a fund
                  capital goods and raw materials imported by                for foreign and local investors interested in
                  local manufacturers exporting outside EPZA                 expanding garment manufacturing for high-end
               • Power consistency: Tanzania can improve                     export markets
                  power consistency to non-EPZA investors

     * These recommendations have been discussed in the previous section                                                            31
     Source: Dalberg stakeholder interviews
B
    INCENTIVIZE INTEGRATION
    INTO THE LOCAL VALUE
    CHAIN IN THE LONG RUN
1B
          In the long term, garment manufacturers can pursue vertical integration by
          investing in their own or outsourcing to existing fabric or yarn processors

                1    VERTICAL INTEGRATION                             2      VERTICAL INTEGRATION VIA SOURCING
                     WITHIN ONE COMPANY                                      FROM A STANDALONE SUPPLIER

                                  Company A                           Company A              Company B           Company C
                                  garment                             Garment                Garment             Garment
                                  manufacturer                        manufacturer           manufacturer        manufacturer

                                  Company A                               Company A           Company B          Company C
                                  fabric processor                        Fabric processor    Fabric processor   Fabric processor

                                  Company A                                                  Yarn processor(s)
                                  yarn processor

             Yarn processors of either model will source local cotton from domestic ginners and farmers. In order to
                        achieve this goal, Tanzania will need to improve the quality of cotton produced

                                                                                                                                    33
     Source: Dalberg interviews
Efforts to improve quality of cotton will be necessary for vertical integration;
2B       although farmers have access to the right seed variety, poor harvesting
         techniques and the type of machinery used reduce cotton length
 Factors                 Impact on quality of cotton                                               Current efforts in Tanzania
 Seed variety            Seed variety is the base determinant on the quality of                    Tanzania uses UKM08 which optimizes the strength and
                         cotton, which is determined by Micronaire (MIC) a                         resistance of cotton fibers. UKM08 falls within the long
                         measure that assesses fiber strength and maturity. A                      range of cotton seed variety. Tanzania is looking to introduce
                         tensile strength above 26 grams/tensile is favored                        an optional seed variety, UK173, which has better crop
                                                                                                   resistance and yield, but lower fiber length than UKM08
 Climatic                Rainfall influences length and quality of cotton. The                     Drip irrigation is necessary for optimal planting, however,
 conditions              ideal rainfall for cotton production is 50mm-100mm.                       there is minimal irrigation used in the production of cotton in
                         Too much water result in solidification of water on                       Tanzania. There are multiple irrigation schemes in the Lake
                         plants                                                                    Zone that are under-developed or under-utilized
 Harvest and             Poor harvesting and post-harvesting techniques                            Farmers use poor harvesting and post-harvesting
 post-harvest            reduce cotton quality. Use of combined harvesting                         techniques. Farmers use combined harvesting and also mix
 techniques              techniques over hand-picking as well as pre-mature                        stones and sand to cotton to add to the weight at which a bag
                         harvesting can damage cotton quality                                      of cotton is sold
 Ginning                 The type of ginning machinery used reduce the quality                     Ginners in Tanzania have switched to the use of saw
 machinery               and length of cotton. Rollers pulled seeds causing                        machines over rollers to improve efficiency and reduce cost
                         limited damage to the length of the fiber. Saw machines                   of ginning. Given current market conditions, ginners do not
                         are used for improved efficiency, however, damage                         have incentive to switch back to the use of rollers
                         cotton fiber
 Spinning                Spinning machinery impacts the fineness of yarn made.                     Investments spinning machinery in Tanzania is only relevant
 machinery               Newer technology have the ability to produce finer yarn                   when there is a ready market for yarn. There mixed capacity
                         than outdated technology. Technology transformation                       among spinners, and may require 2-3 buyers/investors in
                         has made spinning preparatory step critical for the                       fabric or garment manufacturing for the economics to work
                         quality and economy of outgoing products in the textile
                         industry
 Key: This table highlights the importance of key determinants in the quality of cotton as well as current efforts
 to improve these determinants
 Source: Effect of Cotton Fibers and Their Trash Characteristics on the Performance of Spinning Preparatory                                                         34
 Processes (2016); What is a Micronaire in Cotton, and Why Does it Matter? (2015); Dalberg Interviews
2B
     Blending cotton can improve cotton fiber length and smoothness; improvements
     in harvesting techniques will be vital

     • The process of blending or mixing cotton helps improve overall length and smoothness of yarn produced. Optimal smoothness of
       yarn needs to be above 20s and can go up to 45 Ne, depending on type of product. The difference in fiber length to be used for
       blending cotton is only 2mm. Higher differences between fiber length increases defect
     • There are limitations of blending current Tanzanian cotton to help improve length and smoothness of yarn for global markets.
       Although Tanzania’s seed variety can produce long length cotton (32mm), current agronomic practices reduce fiber length to
       medium length cotton (often 28mm or lower). As a result, Tanzanian cotton can only blended at maximum 30mm.
     • As agricultural practices improve, the length of cotton will improve which will open up opportunities to blend with higher length
       cotton from neighboring countries, such as Uganda and Rwanda, who produce cotton with 30-32mm length. In the long-term,
       GAP will need to improve significantly to achieve optimal length of the current seed variety which produces long-length cotton

                                                                                                            Short-term      Long term
     Quality of                                                                               Tanzania
                                                  Properties                                                 blending        blending
     Yarn                                                                                      current
                                                                                                           opportunities   opportunities
     Count Range    Smoothness of yarn: Count range below 20s Ne would not be               Below 20s Ne     20s – 32s       33s – 45s
     (Ne)           sufficient for apparel garments or bedsheets for global markets
     Fiber length   Natural length of fiber: Long staple cotton is an important factor in    26-27mm        28-30mm         30-32mm
                    manufacturing at high count ranges
     Micronaire     Air permeability of compressed fiber: value determines if there is         4-4.6          3.6-4.2         3.5-3.8
                    adequate fineness and maturity. Higher micronaires is associated
                    with more processing waste, knots, lower spinning performance,
                    dye appearance and eventual quality of yarn/fabric.
     Strength       Gram per tensile: this is the force that can be applied to the fiber       24-27          27-30           29-31
                    without it breaking. This is important as the thread is exposed to
                    strenuous forces during the manufacturing process.
     Maturity       Degree of fiber wall thickness: Immature fibers result in low dye           0.85           0.84            0.84
                    uptake, increased fiber breakage, fabric defects, and waste

                                                                                                                                           35
2

 MANUFACTURING TO
EXPAND INTO REGIONAL
 AND LOCAL MARKETS
2
         The demand for finished garments and fabrics is high in local and regional markets,
         however, suppliers are unable to compete with cheap imports
         MARKET                                                                              COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
         • The market size for garments in Tanzania is                                       Importers are dominant players in the
           approximately ~73,000 MT today. The population                                    supply of finished garments in both local
           has been growing by 3.1% annually and is expected                                 and regional markets. Manufacturers
           to double by 2050 from the current 53 million                                     supplying garments - 21st century, Sunflag,
         • Tanzania has access to both the East African                                      and A to Z - sell ~40% of products in the
           Community (EAC) and the Southern African                                          local markets and 60% in either regional or
           Development Community (SADC). It enjoys near                                      global markets
           free trade agreements with member states,
           resulting in access to more than 470 million                                      Local consumers prefer imported finished
           consumers. Currently, South Africa is the second                                  garments from China, due to price despite
           biggest importer of Tanzania apparel exports                                      lower quality products that last ~1 year.
                                                                                             Compared to Chinese imports, second-hand
                                                                                             clothing had comparatively lower impact on
                                                                                             the demand and supply of garments.
                                                                                             According to garment manufacturers, there
                                                                                             is stiff competition from low-cost Chinese
                                                   Tanzania                                  products than second-hand clothing.
                      SADC member                                                            Regional markets also face the same influx
                      states                                                                 of competitive garments and fabric from
         • Market access will further increase if Tanzania
           joins The Common Market for Eastern and                                           China
           Southern Africa (COMESA), which comprises of
           over 460 million consumers

    Source: Tanzania Invest; SADC Joint Meeting of Ministers of Energy and For Water Held Statement May
    2019, Southern African Development Community; About EAC (2017), East Africa Community; Dalberg                                         37
    interviews
2
         There are various pain-points along the value chain that reduce the
         competitiveness of finished garments and fabrics in regional and local markets

                Cross-cutting challenges                        Fabric processing                       Garment manufacturing

    A   • Fluctuation of global prices impacts        The productivity of producing fabric is        • The current quality of cotton       B
          predictability of local price and           higher in China compared to Tanzania,            limits access to higher-end
          ultimately, the economics of the yarn       resulting in lower prices                        buyers in regional and Middle
          and textile industry. Government                                                             East markets, as well as in
                                                      • Inefficient and outdated local
          intervention in setting higher prices of                                                     opening up opportunities for in
                                                        technology reduces productivity,
          farmers impact local industries                                                              vertical integration with garment
                                                        increases cost of producing garments,
                                                                                                       manufacturers targeting higher
        • Lower valuation of imported fabric            and decreases quality of fabric and
                                                                                                       end global markets in the long-
          result in traders paying lower taxes and      garments
                                                                                                       term
          ultimately, in lower-priced imported
                                                      • High power tariffs and inconsistency
          products in the local markets. With           of power can highly influence fabric
          lower costs of production than Tanzania,      manufacturing. First, high tariffs drive
          China has a cost advantage that is            up production costs. Second,
          further exacerbated for garment               inconsistency of power breaks down
          manufacturers due to lower taxes              the machine which impacts the
        • Tanzania is reliant on imported non-          machine
          cotton inputs (e.g. dyes, chemicals,        • Poor access to water results in high
          polyester), which ultimately increases        production costs. Traditional fabric
          cost of production compared to China          use a lot of dye (15-20 grams of dye
          who produce most non-cotton inputs            per meter)
        • Poor local infrastructure leads to higher
          transport cost of transporting raw              Given manufacturers take a 60%-40% approach to
          materials to fabric manufacturing as            markets, investments in improving fabric processing
          well as final products to markets than in       technology and tariffs can be delayed until there is an
          China                                           opportunity to expand products in local markets or
                                                          regional buyers are secured
                                                                                                                                           38
    Source: Dalberg interviews
Globally, countries have tried different measures for curbing fluctuating
2A   cotton price information to protect farmers and support growth of local
     industries

      PRICE-BASED                                         DIRECT INCOME                                   COMMODITY RISK
      SCHEMES                                             SUPPORT PROGRAMS                                MANAGEMENT TOOLS

     • The scheme offers farmers a                       • Provide support (subsidy) to cotton           • This is a market-based solution that
       minimum price to protect farmers                    growers, without linking them to                facilitates actors impacted by price
       through government subsidies                        production decisions                            (farmers and ginners) to rely on
                                                                                                           hedging to protect themselves from
     • These schemes are easier to                       • The subsidy is provided as a function
                                                                                                           price volatility
       administer than other programs                      of land ownership, historical yields,
                                                           and budgetary allocations. It                 • This has limited burden on the
     • United States, China, Turkey, Brazil
                                                           incentivizes farmers to produce crops           Government
       and Egypt have used this model
                                                           with the highest market value
     Risks:                                                                                              • This scheme is used in Mexico (cotton)
                                                         • European Union, Mexico, and the                 and Guatemala (coffee)
     • The scheme is costly and                            United States have used this model
       unsustainable, given it puts the full                                                             Risks:
       burden of price variability on                    Risks:                                          • This solution requires (i) competitive
       government                                        • It is difficult to define eligibility based     well-functioning local markets (ii)
                                                           on informal land ownership                      transparent prices, (iii) high skill
     • Farmers have limited incentive to
       respond to market signals                         • The scheme can be costly, but not               levels, and (iv) high infrastructure
                                                           higher than price-based schemes                 investments

     • Tanzania hasn’t implemented a price-              • There aren’t any specific programs in         • Tanzania is currently designing the
       based cash subsidy program. The                     Tanzania focused on providing direct            Tanzania Mercantile Exchange (TMX),
       Government provided subsidy in the                  support to farmers                              which will be able to offer commodity
       form of seeds and pesticides this year                                                              risk management instruments
       to incentivize farmers

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     Source: Managing Price Volatility in Egypt (2001)
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