INVESTMENT BULLETIN SEPTEMBER 20TH 2021 ISSUE NO.27

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INVESTMENT BULLETIN SEPTEMBER 20TH 2021 ISSUE NO.27
INVESTMENT BULLETIN
                STUDENT WRITERS - STUDENT OPINIONS

                SEPTEMBER 20TH 2021 ISSUE NO.27

Lake Matheson
INVESTMENT BULLETIN SEPTEMBER 20TH 2021 ISSUE NO.27
The University of Auckland Investment Club
Investment Bulletin Team 2021

Shyam Prasad-Jones
Bulletin Editor-in-Chief

Andrew Meng                   Zac Gadsby
Senior Writer                 Senior Writer

Logan Rainey                  Luka Borich
Senior Writer                 Senior Writer

Matt Attwood                  Aniston Inger-Holland
Senior Writer                 Junior Writer

Timothy Cross                 Tulsi Khanna
Junior Writer                 Junior Writer

Ananya Ahluwalia              Joshua Paul
Junior Writer                 Junior Writer

Rohan Bhatt                   Rohit Rajagopal
Junior Writer                 Junior Writer

Sarah Jeong                   Phoebe Horton Andrews
Junior Writer                 Junior Writer

Zac Ballantyne                Issie Dekker
Junior Writer                 Junior Writer

Prices as at Friday 17th September 2021
unless otherwise stated

UAIC INVESTMENT BULLETIN FOR 2021, IS
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INVESTMENT BULLETIN SEPTEMBER 20TH 2021 ISSUE NO.27
Contents

The club

An update from the fund                                       2

Opinions

The missing link: profits                                     3

Pfizer: post-covid growth                                     5

Semi-conducting a crisis                                      7

Cold snap: Canadians rush to the polls                        9

Evergrande or everdue?                                        11

MYOB column

Seizing Advantage: The technology pivot ANZ businesses must
make                                                          13

INFINZ Young Women in Finance

Women in the corporate world                                  14
INVESTMENT BULLETIN SEPTEMBER 20TH 2021 ISSUE NO.27
An update from the club
  A RUNDOWN OF THIS WEEKS PITCHES WRITTEN BY OUR INVESTMENT COMMITTEE ANALYSTS

  Ford Motor Company                     move into the electric vehicle
                                                                               "Revving up your portfolio" -
                                         space. Ford’s sustainable values
                                                                                      Anna Marsden
  Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) was       and focus on doing their part for
  established in 1903 by Henry Ford.     the environment mean that not
  His vision was to create a car brand   only would you be investing in a
  for the American user. As the          strong company financially, you’d
  fourth-largest automaker in the        also be making an ethically sound
  world, Ford presents a well-           choice. The Investment Committee
  diversified product range with a       has voted against passing Ford to
  range of brands catering to            the valuation stage, with the final
  general consumer, luxury, and          vote being 4/15.
  commercial users. Its competitive
  advantage lies with its strong
  “Ford” focus and new Ford+
  strategy, which looks to strengthen
  its core competencies and drive its

2 / The club September 20 2021
INVESTMENT BULLETIN SEPTEMBER 20TH 2021 ISSUE NO.27
The missing link: profits
  WRITTEN BY ROHIT RAJAGOPAL

  CONNECTED, EFFICIENT AND OCCASIONALLY OVERPRICED. FROM A CONSUMER
  PERSPECTIVE, THESE ARE SOME OF THE FIRST THINGS THAT POP INTO MIND WHEN
  DESCRIBING UBER. AS A DRIVER, IT MAY FEEL MORE LIKE FISHING - POSITIONING
  YOURSELF OPTIMALLY AND CASTING OUT BAIT TO DRAW RIDERS IN. THIS GAME OF
  PATIENCE CAN EITHER BE REWARDING OR FRUSTRATING, BUT ULTIMATELY IT MAY JUST
  NOT BE WORTH IT. YET THIS IS THE LEAST OF UBER'S CONCERNS. SINCE ITS INCEPTION IN
  2009, THE RIDE-SHARING PHENOMENON HAS CONSISTENTLY RETURNED YEARLY LOSSES,
  DESPITE EXPANDING ITS CORE BUSINESS SEGMENTS. NOW PUT YOURSELF IN THE SHOES
  OF AN INVESTOR. HOW DO YOU JUSTIFY FUNDING A COMPANY WHERE PROFITS ARE
  ALWAYS IN SIGHT BUT NEVER IN REACH?

  *All dollar values given in USD        temporary or freelance jobs                 though that their competitors were
                                         connecting clients over the web.            likewise burdened by significant
  As the premier ride-share app in
                                                                                     losses. Lyft's revenue dropped by a
  the world, chances are that most
                                         The pandemic has immensely                  third compared to the previous year
  readers have utilised one or more of
                                         impacted Uber. A limiting demand            and looked to business-to-business
  Uber's service lines. With a strong
                                         of customers froze the ride-sharing         logistics as an alternative source of
  brand reputation and a 68% market
                                         markets as revenue fell from $13            income.
  share in the U.S., the firm has
                                         billion in 2019 to $11.1 billion in 2020.
  continued to grow by venturing
                                         As its mobility business fell 43%,          Subsequently, 2021 has thus far
  into distribution and freight along
                                         Uber Eats fought back with a 179%           seen mixed fortunes for Uber. A net
  with research programs for
                                         surge in revenue as people turned           income of $1.1 billion in the second
  advancing vehicular transport. A
                                         to food and delivered goods. The            quarter was regarded as a turning
  flexible income stream has lured
  people into driving for Uber as a      total number of trips completed by          point for the company. These gains

  side-hustle with an increase of        drivers decreased 27% to 4.98               were largely due to their stakes in

  750,000 delivery merchants over        billion, and Uber also took                 Aurora, who acquired the firm's
  the last quarter. In turn, the         preventative measures by cutting            self-driving unit, and Didi, their
  company now headlines the gig          over 6,700 jobs at the height of the        Chinese counterparts. It was initially
  economy, which is founded on           outbreak. It should be noted                thought that the latter realised over

3 / Opinions September 20 2021
INVESTMENT BULLETIN SEPTEMBER 20TH 2021 ISSUE NO.27
$1.4 billion in a valuation on June     this year. CFO Nelson Chai stated,     On the flip side, the company has
 30th, but the final figure was          "we expect our adjusted EBITDA         done a great job of keeping its
 slashed by 50% as China's               loss in Q3 to improve to less than     competitors at bay by investing
 cybersecurity administration            $100 million", and the company is      large amounts in them. With over
 brought the price down after Didi's     "well-positioned to reach adjusted     $12.9 billion of portfolio holdings,
 IPO. As such, Uber's operating loss     EBITDA profitability by Q4".           Uber has a major stake in Zomato,
 totalled $1.19 billion despite                                                 Lime and Didi with additional
 substantial increases in their          Recently, ride-share firms have        acquisitions of delivery services,
 mobility and delivery divisions.        been scrutinised for not offering      Drizly and Postmates. Still, the
                                         their gig workers a minimum            effects of these strategies are
 However, in a bid to please             wage, especially in a period of job    unknown in the long run.
 investors, the ride-share giant has     uncertainty. In February, Uber lost
 often highlighted its EBITDA            a court battle in the U.K., which      And this brings me back to how
 losses. During the same quarter,        meant they had to set aside $600       investors continue to pile in the
 Uber's adjusted loss was $509           million for driver wages and           cash for Uber. Perhaps many are
 million, which was higher than the      holiday pay. Coupled with this, the    hedging an industry bet and
 first quarter of 2021, but massively    company attempted to incentivise       assessing the overall trend of the
 improved from the same time last        their drivers by staging a plan in     ride-share sector. It could be that
 year. Whilst EBITDA is a good           April to provide $250 million in       Uber's vision for revolutionising
 indicator of a firm's short-term        bonuses.                               autonomous vehicles presents an
 operational efficiency. It is not                                              attractive investment case.
 reflective of generally accepted        Uber's business model requires         Nonetheless, the company's cash
 accounting principles (GAAP)            more drivers to create more            drain doesn't seem to point
 which consider net flows. An            income. Yet, with 46% of its current   towards profits anytime soon.
 investor could easily disregard         revenue paid out to drivers, it's      Instead, all we can do is play the
 these metrics as "fake profits".        difficult to see how they can          waiting game.
 Lyft looked more promising as they      continue expanding whilst
 reported their first quarterly          delivering on their promises. Even
 adjusted profit, which surpassed        by treating their drivers as
 preliminary estimates. Uber is now      independent contractors with no
 in a race to prove it can also return   payroll taxes and benefits, Uber
 positive margins as they reaffirm       seems to be no closer to actual
 expectations to do so by the end of     GAAP profitability.

4 / Opinions September 20 2021
INVESTMENT BULLETIN SEPTEMBER 20TH 2021 ISSUE NO.27
Pfizer: post-covid growth
 WRITTEN BY ISSIE DEKKER

 ONE OF THE BIGGEST MEDICAL NAMES IN THE FIGHT AGAINST COVID-19 IS PFIZER.
 FOUNDED IN 1849 BY TWO GERMAN IMMIGRANTS IN NEW YORK, PFIZER WAS
 COMMONLY KNOWN FOR THEIR SUCCESS IN DEVELOPING VIAGRA AND ITS MASS
 PRODUCTION OF VITAMIN C BUT EARNT ITS HOUSEHOLD NAME IN 2020 WITH THEIR
 COVID-19 VACCINE. PFIZER IS THE ROLLOUT VACCINE IN NEW ZEALAND, BEING THE
 CHOSEN ONE OF THREE VACCINES APPROVED BY MEDSAFE. WINNING THE COVID-19
 VACCINE RACE HAS HELPED PFIZER'S IMAGE AND PERFORMANCE FLOURISH, BUT WHAT
 ABOUT WHEN THIS COVID CRAZE ENDS?

 The vaccine Pfizer helped develop         finding a way to destroy it. If you      However, this cannot be expected
 is known as Comirnaty. Research           get exposed to the actual                to be sustained. While research is
 was initially led by BioNTech; a          coronavirus, your immune system          suggesting that a third dose of the
 German biotechnology company              remembers how to fight the spike         vaccine proves even more effective
 focused on manufacturing patient-         proteins, preventing them from           against infection, what happens
 specific immunotherapy                    latching on to your cells and            once everyone is vaccinated? This
 treatments for cancer and                 consequently infecting you. Once         subject is open to speculation, as
 infectious diseases. According to         BioNTech had developed this, they        we are already seeing new variants
 their website, BioNTech's vision is       partnered with Pfizer in March of        of the coronavirus arising. The
 to use genetic features of tumours        2020 to expand research and start        Pfizer vaccine is 3.3% less effective
 to personalise cancer therapy, skills     a clinical trial. Trials proving the     against the Delta variant, which is
 easily transferable to start building     success of the vaccine saw the           still a strong resistance to infection,
 the genetic instructions for              World Health Organisation list it for    but research is ongoing about
 coronavirus spike proteins. These         Emergency Use in December 2020,          potential variants even more
 spike proteins are the little spikey      allowing countries to proceed with       aggressive than Delta. There are no
 projections around the outside of         their own approval and rollout           variants formed or identified yet
 the coronavirus cells and are used        procedures.                              which are cause for concern to
 to infect cells in our bodies. While it                                            vaccinated individuals, but one
 seems backwards to mimic the              The development of the covid-19          can't help to think there could be
 virus you want to eradicate, the          vaccine is outstanding for Pfizer        one day.
 spike proteins themselves do not          and has helped them to grow
 contain the virus. The beginning of       significantly. The vaccine brought       While the science currently
 the genetic code for the spike            in USD 7.8billion in the Second-         indicates the Pfizer vaccine is
 protein contains a specific               Quarter of 2021, and 2021 vaccine        effective against the Delta variant,
 sequence that tells your cell to kick     revenue is projected at USD              it can be worrying to think the
 the spike protein out to the              33.5billion due to signed contracts      coronavirus could evolve like the
 immune system, which starts               for 2.1 billion doses to be delivered.   flu, with new variants quickly

5 / Opinions September 20 2021
INVESTMENT BULLETIN SEPTEMBER 20TH 2021 ISSUE NO.27
arising and new vaccinations             realisation of spin-off company          increase since 2007. Whether the
 required yearly. For Pfizer, this        Upjohn. This left Pfizer 20% smaller     high prices for Pfizer's medications
 could be an opportunity to               and with a new vision to focus on        are the result of extensive research
 capitalise their quick development       disease cures and prevention to          and development costs remains
 of the vaccine. Alternate vaccine        change patients' lives around the        open to speculation, but it seems
 Moderna quickly followed Pfizer          world.                                   probable. Research and
 and indicated a strong protection                                                 development are notoriously
 against the Delta variant. If further    Pfizer doesn't just do well with         expensive and requires extensive
 variants arise, it will be interesting   vaccines. They have had many             funding. Passing these costs on to
 to watch the race for vaccines           breakthroughs. They were the first       patients struggling through
 unfold. Given the current research       pharmaceutical company to mass-          disease already is unfair, but
 though, it is unlikely that the          produce penicillin and vitamin C         unfortunately is the result of the
 vaccine will be a continuous source      and develop Viagra, discovering          United States healthcare system.
 of revenue for Pfizer.                   citric acid and manufacturing
                                          EpiPens. It hasn't always been           Pfizer has done extremely well in
 Being the first vaccine to reach         successful for Pfizer though, with       the past year, developing a strong
 Emergency Use Listing status,            trials for antibiotic Trovan ending      vaccine against Covid-19 and
 Pfizer has become a very topical         tragically during the meningitis         recording strong revenues. The
 and popular name. Listed on the          epidemic in Nigeria in 1996. Trovan      biopharma company has made
 New York Stock Exchange, the             was never approved for use               significant strides in the
 stock price of Pfizer has moved on       afterwards. Their medications            pharmaceutical world since its
 the higher side of 30% over the last     Vyndaqel and Vyndamax for heart          establishment in 1849, and its
 year. This is much more volatile         condition cardiomyopathy have            journey in a seemingly far-off post-
 than other pharmaceutical                come under fire for being too            covid will be interesting to watch.
 companies of comparable size.            expensive for patients to afford.        Such growth seen over 2020 and
 Johnson & Johnson who also have                                                   2021 due to coronavirus will be
 developed a (less successful) covid-     Despite early studies proving the        near impossible to maintain, and
 19 vaccine moved less than half as       drug is effective in keeping             Pfizer's future in the volatile
 much. While the covid-19 vaccine         patients out of hospital and             market that is pharmaceuticals
 isn't the only thing going for Pfizer,   reducing the risk of death due to        and health organisation approvals
 it certainly is currently its biggest    the disease, the United Kingdom          is shaping up to be rocky.
 growth source. In its 2021 Quarter       National Institute for Health and
 Two results, Pfizer reported a 10%       Care Excellence shunned funding
 Operational Growth excluding the         for Vyndaqel on the basis of cost.
 vaccine revenue, the vaccine             They said they would be open to
 providing a further 76%. The             renegotiations with Pfizer around
 excluded Operational Growth is 4%        the cost-effectiveness. The high
 higher than their Second-Quarter         cost of the drug is contradictory to
 2020, implying that their other          Pfizer's vision to help patients as if
 products have been doing well too.       patients are unable to afford
                                          beneficial medication what is the
 The top revenue earner of                point in developing it. Pfizer also
 Oncology (cancer) in 2020, Second-       got penalised in the United States
 Quarter has seen a 19% increase in       for the recent increases in the
 total revenue to the same quarter        price of EpiPens, a first response
 of 2021. Hospital product revenues       medication for life-threatening
 also saw a considerable increase of      anaphylactic reactions. Pfizer and
 21% from the second quarter of           its subsidiaries agreed to pay a
 2020. This is promising for Pfizer,      USD 345million settlement in July
 especially considering the               this year over the 650% price

6 / Opinions September 20 2021
INVESTMENT BULLETIN SEPTEMBER 20TH 2021 ISSUE NO.27
Semi-conducting a crisis
 WRITTEN BY ANANYA AHLUWALIA

 WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF TECHNOLOGY AND THE FAST-PACED DEVELOPMENT OF
 THE INTERNET OF THINGS (IOT), ALMOST EVERYTHING AROUND US IS BECOMING
 'SMART'. WHAT STARTED AS A REQUIREMENT OF JUST PHONES AND COMPUTERS HAS
 SPREAD TO CARS, TOOTHBRUSHES AND EVEN LITTER BOXES. HOWEVER, THIS JOINT
 ADVANCEMENT OF MANY ASPECTS OF OUR LIVES HAS ALSO INTRODUCED A BOOM IN
 DEMAND AND JOINT VULNERABILITY.

 If you haven't already noticed, mass   produced are measured at an            China. This means the shortage
 production for a concerning            average of 12 nanometers. That's       caused by high demand,
 number of goods is at a standstill,    more than 8 thousand times             culminated with the Global Covid
 and it's because of one very, very     smaller than a single strand of        Supply Crisis, has resulted in this
 small reason - the semiconductor       human hair - and people are still      dire situation.
 chip.                                  aiming to get it smaller. Along with
                                        the need to get chips smaller,         Automaker giants like Ford, BMW
 Typically made of Silicon, and also    manufacturers are also pressured       and Tesla have voiced their
 the reason the notorious Valley in     for them to work faster. Meaning       concerns with regard to
 San Francisco got its name, the        more transistors are required while    production problems. In late July,
 semiconductor is a vital               not compromising the node size.        CEO Elon Musk stated, "The chip
 component to any computing             And of course, all these demands       supply is fundamentally becoming
 component or device. As the name       come partnered with the age-old        a factor on our output," and that,
 indicates, a semiconductor sits on a   ultimatum of cheap cost of             "It was an incredibly intense effort
 spectrum somewhere between a           production.                            of finding new chips, writing new
 pure insulator and a conductor. The                                           firmware, integrating with the
 property can be manipulated by         The rise in demand for these chips     vehicle and testing in order to
 adding impurities to the element       and its increase in complexity         maintain production".
 through a doping process. This         means the shortage of the product
 malleability means the                 is at an all-time high.                Medical devices that require a
 semiconductor can be catered to                                               connection to power or batteries
 different components in different      Production of this chip is an          also depend on semiconductors
 ways, which makes the product so       international process, with raw        and are a part of the chip struggle.
 valuable.                              materials harvested from countries     Many of these devices are crucial
                                        like Japan and Mexico and              to the treatment and recovery of
 Semiconductors currently being         manufacturing in the US and            those diagnosed with COVID-19,

7 / Opinions September 20 2021
INVESTMENT BULLETIN SEPTEMBER 20TH 2021 ISSUE NO.27
further highlighting the                Alternatively, you could look to        open to investing in the modern
 importance of the product.              individual companies in the             electronics industry- I know I will.
 However, many countries didn't          semiconductor industry for
 view the chip as the essential          investment opportunities. As with       An interesting read into the
 component it turned out to be,          all individual stock investments,       complexity of semiconductors: The
 and closed semiconductor                this option will come with its own      Chip Shortage Keeps Getting
 factories during lockdown periods,      risk depending on how you choose        Worse. Why Can’t We Just Make
 further adding to the lapse in          to invest, but the following links      More?
 supply.                                 help you in your decisions.

 However, with the shortage finally      10 Biggest Semiconductor
 being recognised as a crisis-           Companies
 inducing problem, experts predict
 a significant development in the        There’s No Easy Way Out Of The
 global semiconductor supply             Chip Shortage, But These Stocks
 chain, which alludes to the perfect     Stand To Benefit
 investment opportunity.
                                         Ultimately, although the pandemic
 The PHLX Semiconductor Sector           is partially to blame for the
 Index (NASDAQ: SOX) comprises 30        shortage in semiconductors, the
 companies with operations               insufficient foresight into the rapid
 spanning the semiconductor              acceleration of technological
 development process. Over the           growth is a primary cause of this
 past year, the index's growth has       problem. Also, though solutions
 been incredible, seen by a              are being developed, they will take
 USD$1,311.12 increase since the start   a while and a lot of cash to
 of September 2020. That's a 62%         implement. So watch this space,
 increase in less than 12 months.        and keep your minds and wallets

8 / Opinions September 20 2021
Cold snap: Canadians rush to
  the polls
  WRITTEN BY PHOEBE HORTON ANDREWS

  FOLLOWING THE DISSOLUTION OF GOVERNMENT REQUESTED BY PRIME MINISTER JUSTIN
  TRUDEAU ON THE 15TH OF AUGUST, CANADIANS WILL VOTE IN A FEDERAL ELECTION THIS
  MONDAY, THE 20TH OF SEPTEMBER, BRINGING FORWARD THE COUNTRY’S NEXT ELECTION
  BY APPROXIMATELY 25 MONTHS.

  Mr Trudeau’s intentions are clear: to   to name the previous Prime             parties are the centre-left Liberals,
  win re-election by capitalising on      Minister. But Canada’s political       led by Justin Trudeau, and the
  the success of his government’s         landscape is like New Zealand’s,       centre-right Conservatives.
  vaccine rollout, which has outpaced     and the clairvoyance granted by an     Additionally, there are two more
  that of the UK, the US, Australia,      understanding of the issues driving    parties that are likely to have a
  and New Zealand. This success           Canadian politics, made explicit by    significant role in this year’s
  comes despite the country’s             Monday’s election results, will give   election: the New Democratic Party
  milquetoast response to COVID-19        us a greater understanding of the      and the Bloc Québécois. Additional
  in 2020, which saw over 15,000          future of politics here. Questions     minority parties include The Greens
  Canadians dead by the end of the        such as “how will voters reward        and the People’s Party, but these
  year. By comparison, Australia’s        greater freedoms at the cost of        parties lack widespread support.
  death toll at the same time was         exposure to COVID-19?” can be
  below 1,000; New Zealand’s was just     answered by seeing who Canadians       Ideologically, the NDP sits to the
  25.                                     elect and whether Trudeau’s            left of the Liberals, departing from
                                          government has recovered from its      them in its calls to cancel student
  But why is the outcome of this          misadventures last year.               debt and increase taxes on wealthy
  federal election on the other side of                                          Canadians. The party enjoys greater
  the world relevant? Canada is not       The political landscape in Canada is   popularity among younger, inner-
  among New Zealand’s 15 major            dominated by two big-tent parties –    city Canadians, winning almost as
  trading partners, nor is it of much     these are parties which have broad     large a proportion of mock student
  strategic value. Most New               appeal and secure a large              votes as the Liberals. The leader of
  Zealanders would be hard-pressed        proportion of votes. These two         the party is Jagmeet Singh, the first

9 / Opinions September 20 2021
visible minority to run a major        from the BQ; and his desire for a
  political party in Canada.             CANZUK agreement, which would
                                         see increased freedom of
  The Bloc Québécois, an                 movement between Canada,
  idiosyncratic party by global          Australia, New Zealand, and the
  standards, hopes to advance            United Kingdom, as well as greater
  Quebec’s independence. While           economic and geopolitical
  sovereignty lacks popular support,     coöperation in a similar vein to the
  polling suggests that many             free trade agreement between
  Quebecers support greater              Australia and the UK announced
  autonomy for their province. The       earlier this year.
  party generally aims to take seats
  from larger parties instead of         With less than a week until the
  running its own diverse platform       election, polling suggests that the
  and use this position to agitate for   Liberals and the Conservatives are
  pro-Quebec policy. The party is        tied for votes, at approximately 32%
  currently lead by Yves-François        ±4%. While the NDP and BQ could
  Blanchet.                              theoretically form a coalition in
                                         parliament with the election
  What the NDP and BQ lack in            winner, at ~19% and ~7%,
  popular support (the latter doesn’t    respectively, this has all but been
  even run candidates outside            ruled out, as it was in 2019. The
  Quebec), they make up for in their     Liberals and Bloc Québécois are
  ability to play kingmaker; a clipped   more efficient at turning votes into
  left-wing split asunder on issues      seats in parliament than either the
  like indigenous rights,                Conservatives or NDP, but a surge
  environmental stewardship, and         in popularity one way or another
  burgeoning insecurity has seen the     could make this irrelevant,
  balance of power tip towards these     especially as parties vie for votes on
  minor parties, who can take votes      key issues like the COVID-19
  from the larger ones and advance       response, Quebec autonomism, and
  their policies accordingly. Trudeau    economic wellbeing.
  lost his majority government in the
  2019 election and must rely on         Will Canadians reward the Trudeau
  these minor opposition parties to      government for an enormously
  pass his legislation, giving them      successful vaccine rollout or chide
  power beyond their size.               the government for its failure to
                                         enforce stricter lockdown
  The Official Opposition, the centre-   conditions in 2020? Will Erin
  right Conservative Party, is           O’Toole’s brand of centre-right
  currently headed by Erin O’Toole, a    politics, more palatable than the
  relatively moderate lawyer-turned-     populist rhetoric of other
  politician who took control of the     contemporary conservatives, strike
  party in 2020. Among O’Toole’s         a chord with disenfranchised
  unique perspectives are his vocal      voters? Whatever the outcome may
  support for unions, atypical of a      be, it is likely to set the tone of
  country’s most prominent               Western politics in a post-
  conservative politician; his support   pandemic world.
  for greater Quebec autonomism,
  which could see his party take votes

11 / Opinions September 20 2021
Evergrande or everdue?
  WRITTEN BY ANISTON INGER-HOLLAND

  THE CHINA EVERGRANDE GROUP HAS HIT HEADLINES ACROSS THE WORLD THIS WEEK
  AFTER CONCERNS OF A POTENTIAL COLLAPSE. THE GROUP IS CHINA’S SECOND-LARGEST
  PROPERTY DEVELOPER WITH NZD 154 BILLION IN SALES IN THE LAST YEAR ALONE.
  HOWEVER, EVERGRANDE HAS FACED LIQUIDITY ISSUES. IN 2020, REPORTS EMERGED THAT
  THE EVERGRANDE GROUP HAD WARNED OFFICIALS IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE THAT
  PAYMENTS DUE IN JANUARY 2021 COULD CAUSE A LIQUIDITY CRISIS AND POTENTIALLY
  LEAD TO CROSS-DEFAULTS IN THE BROADER FINANCIAL INDUSTRY. THIS CRISIS HAD BEEN
  AVERTED TEMPORARILY WHEN INVESTORS WAIVED THEIR RIGHT TO FORCE AN NZD 18
  BILLION REPAYMENT.

  Although Evergrande has raised           The implications are uncertain, but      areas of the economy since the
  NZD 11 billion through the selling of    the future looks glum. The Group’s       Evergrande Group’s liabilities
  shares in its electric vehicle           stock has been falling, seeing a         involve more than 128 banks and
  department, a property firm and a        5.39% decline in the last trading        over 121 non-banking institutions,
  regional bank and its effort of          session, totalling an 80% decline        with China Minsheng Bank holding
  further raising capital by exploring     year-to-date. Protests have              the highest exposure. Additionally,
  the idea of listing its tourism and      occurred outside the company’s           Evergrande has exposure in the
  water businesses, it will not provide    headquarters in Shenzhen, with           Chinese real estate high yields
  an adequate fix for the struggling       demands from investors to give           market, where any default could
  Group as these sales won’t be            them their money back. Whilst            cause damaging sell-offs.
  completed until next year.               disgruntled employees and
                                           investors will bear the brunt of any     Evergrande also employs 200,000
  Evergrande needs to make NZD             collapse, the risk of cross-defaulting   staff and hires millions of people for
  940 Million in coupon payments by        is an increasing concern for the         project developments, who will all
  the end of this year. In addition,       Chinese government. Cross-               be without a job if the firm was to
  NZD 2.8 billion of outstanding           defaulting occurs when a small           collapse. However, it’s unclear how
  bonds come due in March 2022,            default, in this case, interest owed,    much damage a collapse could
  with a further NZD 1.8 billion in        triggers an accelerated payment on       cause, especially with speculation
  April. Due to this, it’s expected that   a larger debt which causes a             that the global securities markets
  a default is probable.                   collapse. This could impact other        are highly leveraged.

12 / Opinions September 20 2021
Evergrande’s situation has been
  compared to the likes of the
  Lehman Brothers, the collapse of
  the fourth-largest investment bank
  in the United States during the
  Global Financial Crisis. However,
  distinctions have been made as
  many believe the most immediate
  concern is a real estate market
  crash rather than a market-wide
  financial crisis. However, it is still a
  large mess to clean up, and it begs
  the question of whether the
  Chinese government would bail out
  Evergrande. China has bailed out
  companies before, such as Huarong
  Asset Management. However, the
  company was majority state-
  owned, unlike Evergrande. Bailing
  Evergrande out does give China the
  opportunity to further its control of
  non-state-owned enterprises, as
  seen with its recent crackdown on
  Alibaba and Didi. Financial
  assistance would also be beneficial
  in achieving social stability, one of
  the main goals of the Chinese
  government, as well as be in its best
  interests to look out for retail
  investors.

  Evergrande has NZD 262 billion
  worth of projects under
  development affecting 1.6 million
  homeowners or families, which
  means any risk to these
  investments will only increase social
  tensions. However, the editor-in-
  chief of China’s state-backed
  newspaper, Global Times, has cast
  doubt on a bailout and argued that
  Evergrande is not too big to fail as it
  isn’t a bank but rather a property
  developer. There is one thing that
  everyone can agree on: for
  Evergrande, time is ticking.

13 / Opinions September 20 2021
MYOB column
       Seizing advantage: the technology pivot ANZ businesses must make

       Businesses that aren’t seizing the benefits of a modern business and people management
       system are struggling.

       Mid-market businesses in Australia and New Zealand must make a significant technology
       pivot in order to successfully take on the challenges of a post-COVID-19 world.

       However, adapting to new ways of working through basic digitisation is not enough. The core
       systems of a business must be upgraded in order to navigate future challenges, unlock
       productivity, and stay ahead of the competition.

       A new MYOB commissioned study, conducted by Forrester Consulting, reveals that unified,
       cloud-based business and people management systems are vital to a mid-market
       organisation’s ability to thrive and succeed.

       Visit MYOB to get a snapshot view of why mid-market businesses must make the technology
       pivot to a unified business and people management approach, download the full report
       and/or watch the ‘Seizing Advantage’ webinar on-demand and get the full briefing on the
       technology pivot businesses must make.

14 / MYOB column September 20 2021
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