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HOW E-SCOOTERS CAN
WIN A PLACE IN URBAN
TRANSPORT
By Justin Rose, Daniel Schellong, Carsten Schaetzberger, and Jeff Hill
O ne of the fastest-growing world-
wide consumer phenomena in
memory, e-scooters are also one of the
It’s hard to unravel the dynamics of this
fast-paced, still-developing market. It has
now grown past its infancy, but what are
most controversial. And while some cities the prospects for the e-scooter–sharing in-
are putting the brakes on their prolifera- dustry at this critical juncture? What does
tion, industry leaders are maintaining the industry’s long-term economic picture
valuations in the billions, so the funding look like? Where are operators most likely
continues to flow unabated. to succeed in gaining traction? How will
the market unfold—and what must opera-
E-scooter sharing is big, hot, and (with tors do to survive and thrive? Most import-
apologies to Winston Churchill) a paradox ant, how can e-scooter companies and city
wrapped in a conundrum. Some observers leaders continue to work together to make
dismiss it as yet another overhyped indus- e-scooters a viable micromobility solution?
try rife with funding and, sooner or later, The current experience in the US and
big losses. But the reality is that e-scooters’ Europe, the two most developed regions,
unit economics have improved significant- sheds light on these questions.
ly, and companies are innovating aggres-
sively to overcome operational constraints.
The Economics Are Looking
Companies are also engaging with regula- Much Brighter
tors far more proactively than in the past. E-scooters started out at a disadvantage.
It is clearer than ever that micromobility First-generation e-scooters, which debuted
solutions are not a fad; in an increasingly in cities in the fall of 2017, were retail mod-
congested and polluted urban landscape, els and had a lifespan for fleet use of only
cities urgently need them, as their presence two to three months, which made achieving
in some 350 cities worldwide attests. (See profitability a challenge if not an impossi-
Exhibit 1.) Further expansion will follow. bility. As fleet operators and venture capi-Exhibit 1 | E-Scooters Are Rapidly Expanding Across the Globe
Europe
Sweden, 6
Czech Republic, 1 Europe,
Norway, 1 103
Denmark, 4 Finland, 3
Canada, 3 Germany, 32 Estonia, 1
Belgium, 6 Poland, 4
Hungary, 1
Luxembourg, 1 Romania, 1
France, 7
US, 132 Portugal, 5 Bulgaria, 1 Japan, 1
Spain, 9 Greece, 3
South Korea, 2
Switzerland, 5 Israel, 2
US Mexico, 6 Italy, 6 United Arab Emirates, 1
Croatia, 1
Austria, 5 Thailand, 2
Colombia, 2
Malaysia, 2 Singapore, 1
Peru, 1 Brazil, 14
Chile, 1
Australia, 4
Uruguay, 1
Argentina, 2
New Zealand, 4
Source: BCG analysis.
Note: The number after each country identifies the number of cities per country with an e-scooter presence as of November 2019.
talists hoped, however, second-generation trieve, charge, and redeploy each scooter,
scooters—jointly designed with manufac- swappable batteries are proving to be a
turers to boost sturdiness and lifespan— game changer, reducing labor and logistics
are far more durable, lasting 12 to 24 costs, downtime, and the scooter’s environ-
months in fleet use. In addition to being mental footprint. The next level of innova-
more rugged, the new scooters are more tion with regard to swappable batteries will
powerful and have a greater array of smart be decentralized charging stations, where
elements, such as sensors. Swappable bat- users can swap batteries in return for ride
teries are gaining ground, too, especially in credit, similar to what is already being
Europe; Berlin-based Tier Mobility, for in- done with refueling in car sharing.
stance, plans to replace its entire fleet with
swappable-battery-powered scooters by Perhaps the biggest factor underlying the
mid-2020. As a result, a handful of industry improvement in operational unit econom-
leaders have managed to achieve positive ics is the professionalization and optimiza-
variable margins at both city and regional tion of providers’ operations. Scale effects,
levels of operation. More—and more along with early lessons learned, have en-
substantial—improvements are in the abled providers to lower the costs per ride
works, including a self-parking capability significantly. Labor costs—which depend
and autonomous relocation (the latter ob- on one of three basic models for managing
viates the need for workers to move scoot- logistics, charging, and repair—are driven
ers around town in vans). These improve- by the provider’s business model and by
ments also go a long way toward fulfilling the specific operating region. In-house la-
the e-scooter’s promise of environmental bor is more expensive, but companies can
sustainability. (See the sidebar.) train their own employees and retain full
control over operations. Third-party con-
Hardware improvements are not the only tractors are less expensive but less stable;
factor in e-scooters’ brighter economics. and gig workers, although a cheaper op-
Providers have also been tackling opera- tion, give companies less control and are
tional obstacles, zeroing in on the key oper- the least reliable at ensuring the comple-
ational cost drivers in individual markets. tion of all necessary tasks. Business models
Because they eliminate the need to re- don’t drive the choice entirely, however. In
Boston Consulting Group | How E-Scooters Can Win a Place in Urban Transport 2WHAT’S DRIVING THE NEW UNIT ECONOMICS?
Much can change in the course of a year. urgency of improving unit economics.
A comparison of 2018 and 2019 data Fortunately for providers, consumers in
from Santa Monica–based Bird shows many markets proved to be willing to pay
how rapidly the unit economics have a bit more for the convenience and fun
been improving. (See the exhibit below.) of the service.
A Price Hike. Initially, as in most newly Greater Durability and Operational
emerging markets, most operators of Efficiency. The company’s push to
e-scooter services offered low prices to improve hardware, durability, and
attract users and to gain market share operational efficiency has yielded
quickly. Soon, the high costs and com dramatic benefits. In particular, increas-
plexity of operations became apparent, es in battery size and quality have
and price increases inevitably followed. reduced the frequency of recharging and
A combination of general per-minute thus have allowed more rides per charge.
price increases and price increases in The company leveraged a production-
high-adoption locations boosted unit line-style operation to lower repair costs,
revenue more than 20%. Such a move even as it hired more-expensive in-house
might seem risky early in the adoption labor. In early 2019, it began hiring its
life cycle, but it demonstrates the own mechanics, who work out of regional
How the Unit Economics Are Unfolding
THE EXPERIENCE OF A MAJOR PROVIDER
PER E-SCOOTER RIDE 2018 20191 MAIN DRIVERS OUTLOOK
• General increases in per-minute price
Gross revenue $3.50 $4.27
• Higher prices charged in high-adoption locations
Discounts $0.44 • Overall ~10% of gross revenue is expected
Net revenue2 $3.83
• Larger, longer-lasting batteries mean less frequent charging
Charging3 $1.70 $1.04
• Gig workers are paid reduced fees for recharging
• Sturdier equipment means less frequent repairs
Repair $0.50 $0.32
• Large-scale operations cut cost per repair
Other variable costs4 $0.65 $0.25 • Primary driver is number of rides
Variable margin $0.65 $2.22 • Revenue per ride increases as operational costs decrease
• Average number per active e-scooter stays constant or
Rides per day (full year, US) 5 2.3 increases slightly
• Equipment is designed for sharing, significantly
Expected vehicle lifespan (months) ~3 ~15 increasing its half-life
• Co-development of sharing providers and Asian
Cost of e-scooter $375 $630 manufacturers limits cost increases
• Breakeven time remains stable, as a higher contribution
Breakeven per e-scooter (months) 3.8 4.0 per ride offsets fewer rides per day
Improvement expected Neutral
Sources: Bird; BCG analysis.
1Four-week average ( June 10–July 7, 2019) for Bird Zero and Bird One.
2Net of sales tax, credits, discounts, refunds, disputes, and failed payments.
3Includes operations and support costs (in-market labor, transport tasks, and other task payouts).
4Includes costs such as insurance, payments, mobile data, and cloud service hosting fees.
Boston Consulting Group | How E-Scooters Can Win a Place in Urban Transport 3WHAT’S DRIVING THE NEW UNIT ECONOMICS?
(continued)
service centers, rather than relying on excludes depreciation and corporate
gig workers to handle maintenance and overhead costs for R&D, staff salaries,
repairs. and other general and administrative
expenses. Unlike other mobility busi-
A Hefty Increase in Margin. The nesses, such as ride hailing, the
combined effects of price increases, e-scooter business is capital intensive, so
greater durability, and improvements in depreciation (not shown in the exhibit)
operational efficiency yielded an increase is very important. The introduction of
in variable margin from roughly 20% to more-durable scooters significantly
more than 50%. However, that increase reduced depreciation.
cities such as Paris, bidders seeking permits sent far less of an issue than availability.
must meet certain social standards as well That’s a good thing for providers, since reg-
as environmental goals. France encourages ulatory fees (permits and ridership fees),
employment with benefits and frowns on fines, and other costs are exerting pressure
gig work. For this reason, some operators on unit economics.
are abandoning the gig model altogether in
certain cities. Together, a more durable product, improve-
ments in operational efficiency, and higher
With a high volume of product in the field, prices have made e-scooter operations
it’s not surprising that data (along with the more economical, at least for the top eche-
analytics and science around it) is crucial lon of leaders in the more mature markets
for informing decisions related to boosting and in some individual cities. But to reach
fleet utilization. Tracking uptime (the pro- sustainable profits and justify their current
portion of live and available scooters in the valuations, companies need a model that
fleet) and optimizing supply-and-demand reflects a broader pool of cities and micro-
matching enable operators to increase the mobility modes. They need to operate on a
utilization of active machines in circula- scale big enough to amortize their corpo-
tion. For example, identifying the locations rate overhead costs.
where consumer demand is highest en-
ables operators to pick more strategic drop-
off locations and to relocate stock to high- Using City Archetypes to
demand areas. Extrapolate Future Growth
How bright are the industry’s prospects for
Finally, price increases have tipped the eco- growth? Certainly, variations in disposable
nomics in a more favorable direction. In income, even across Europe, make some
2019, Bird and other providers raised their cities better candidates than others for
per-minute prices in most US cities from scooter growth. To arrive at a sound esti-
15 cents per minute to as much as 39 cents mate, we first categorized cities on the ba-
per minute (in Los Angeles, for instance). sis of four key dimensions, using decision-
In Europe, depending on the city, providers tree analysis:
now charge the equivalent of €0.15 to
€0.25 (representing a slight increase since •• Population Density. Daytime popula-
service began). Companies almost always tion density offers a good benchmark
charge these per-minute rates on top of for understanding potential local
an unlock fee of $1 or the equivalent. For demand for micromobility modes such
core target users—a young and affluent as e-scooters. Cars are more expensive
group—cost increases amounting to cents and inconvenient to drive and park,
per minute are inconsequential and repre public transportation is often over
Boston Consulting Group | How E-Scooters Can Win a Place in Urban Transport 4Exhibit 2 | US and European Cities Can Be Categorized into Seven Micromobility Archetypes
Megacity
Example cities:
15 Car-Centric Giant
Example cities:
9 Car-Centric
Middleweight
74 Weather-
Challenged
180
cities cities cities cities
Paris, France; Los Angeles, California; Example cities: Middleweight
Madrid, Spain; Dallas, Texas; San Antonio, Texas; Indianapolis, Example cities: Brussels, Belgium;
Chicago, Illinois Atlanta, Georgia Indiana; Nashville, Tennessee Denver, Colorado; Portland, Oregon
Metro population: Metro population: Metro population: Metro population:
3.5 million+ 3.5 million+ 400,000–3.5 million 400,000–3.5 million
Scooter Paradise
Example cities:
45 College Town
Example cities:
61 Scooter-Friendly
Small Town
380
cities cities cities
Austin, Texas; Charlottesville, Virginia; Example cities:
San Diego, California; Ann Arbor, Michigan; Not applicable
Malaga, Spain Münster, Germany
Metro population: Metro population: Metro population:
400,000–3.5 million 100,000–400,000 100,000–400,000
Source: BCG analysis.
Note: The number highlighted in the upper right-hand corner of each box is the number of US and European cities with relevant
micromobility sharing potential (764 cities total).
loaded and uncomfortable, and heavy •• A Large Population of Young People.
vehicular traffic makes alternatives such Because young people are the largest
as taxis and ride sharing less appealing user group for e-scooters, we looked at
and less reliable. High-density areas are metropolitan areas in which students
more condensed, so trips are shorter, constitute a relatively large percentage
which bodes well for scooters and of the population.
micromobility vehicles in general.
We used these dimensions to identify sev-
•• Bicycle Friendliness. An infrastructure en micromobility archetypes derived from
that supports bicycling (with special varieties of US and European cities. (See
traffic lanes and accommodations for Exhibit 2.) The archetypes are as follows:
parking, for example) serves as an
important proxy for e-scooter potential. •• Megacity: A major global city with a
metropolitan-wide population of at
•• Weather. E-scooters are not well suited least 3.5 million—such as Paris, Madrid,
to inclement weather, so even cities that or Chicago—that is dense enough to be
are otherwise hospitable to scooters are bicycle friendly.
not prime markets if they have extreme
levels or extended periods of precipita- •• Car-Centric Giant: A major US city—
tion or cold temperatures. such as Los Angeles, Dallas, or Atlanta—
Boston Consulting Group | How E-Scooters Can Win a Place in Urban Transport 5whose layout is more horizontal than mobility in the US and Europe. This figure
vertical and whose predominant mode is more than double the number of active
of transportation is the car. markets today, suggesting huge growth po-
tential. To better understand the long-term
•• Car-Centric Middleweight: A midsize market size, however, we also need to esti-
US city—such as San Antonio, Indi mate the number of scooters per market.
anapolis, or Nashville—where cars
predominate. From existing data on scooter prevalence
and use in cities within our archetypes, we
•• Weather-Challenged Middleweight: A developed an estimate of scooter penetra-
midsize city—such as Brussels, Denver, tion—the number of people per scooter in
or Portland, Oregon—that has long a given area. For example, there are about
winters or inclement weather. 16,000 e-scooters in Austin, Texas, which
has a population of 1 million within its city
•• Scooter Paradise: A midsize, non-car- limits, so we used this ratio (62.5 people to
centric city—such as Austin, Lisbon, 1 scooter) to represent the saturation point
Nice, or San Diego—with mild weather. for Scooter Paradise cities. We then applied
that ratio to similar cities to calculate the
•• College Town: A small city—such as total number of scooters that each market
Charlottesville, Virginia; Ann Arbor, could bear at its current population.
Michigan; or Münster, Germany—that
owes much of its population to the
college or university located there. Advancing Toward Long-Term
Growth
•• Scooter-Friendly Small Town: A Given how quickly the e-scooter marketing
smaller municipality that holds poten- is evolving, we also looked at how e-scooter
tial for e-scooter growth. penetration throughout the US and Europe
would progress over time, focusing on
Our analysis indicates that approximately three phases, or horizons. (See Exhibit 3.)
750 cities could support widespread micro- The three horizons are as follows:
Exhibit 3 | Scooter Adoption During Key Phases
$25 billion–
REVENUES
$30 billion
$13 billion–
$15 billion
$7 billion–
$3 billion– $8 billion
$4 billion
NUMBER OF E-SCOOTERS About 1 million 2 million–3 million 4 million–5 million
Horizon 1 Horizon 2 Horizon 3 Beyond the horizon
E-scooter market Emerging Maturing Mature
Inclusion of other
micromobility form factors
Fleet size caps Low until requirements Increased to match Downtown caps are
such as parking are met demand consistent with Horizon 2 Continued integration of
micromobility into city
planning to increase the
Penetration Downtown areas Downtown areas • Downtown areas overall mode shift potential
• Suburbs of non-car-centric (for example, from car trips
cities to e-scooter trips)
• Small European towns
Source: BCG analysis.
Note: Projections are based on US and European market experience.
Boston Consulting Group | How E-Scooters Can Win a Place in Urban Transport 6•• Horizon 1—the immediate future, ning in order to achieve cities’ goals of shift-
marked by continued expansion in ing away from cars and toward more var-
existing core urban areas (in both the ied, lower-impact forms of transit, not just
US and Europe) and an emerging scooters. European and US market revenue
e-scooter market in new cities. Wide- will likely reach $25 billion to $30 billion.
spread regulatory restrictions will cap
the allowable number of e-scooters. We
expect that, by the end of Horizon 1, What the Numbers Mean for
the US- and European-based fleet of Competition
e-scooters will amount to roughly 1 In the short time since e-scooter sharing
million machines and will generate $3 debuted, the barriers to entry have risen
billion to $4 billion in total revenue. considerably. Scale is a major driver of this
development: despite improvements in
•• Horizon 2—the phase when e-scooters hardware, operations remain labor inten-
have become endemic to city street life sive and expensive. As fleets have grown
but for the most part remain located in from hundreds to thousands of scooters
downtown areas. During this period, per market, leading entities have secured
the market will mature and economics the advantage of economies of scale, allow-
will stabilize to create market equi ing them to reinvest and further improve
libriums. Continued improvement in their operations capabilities on a global
operations and ongoing growth in scale. Data is another major advantage:
scooter use will help address city companies that deploy tens of thousands
concerns, resulting in caps being lifted of e-scooters across different market arche-
or adjusted to match market demand. types can learn a great deal about rider
By the end of Horizon 2, we expect, the behavior under different circumstances—
total US- and European-based fleet will and can use that information to tailor the
number roughly 2 million to 3 million customer experience and optimize opera-
scooters and will yield $7 billion to tions accordingly. Finally, regulatory limits
$8 billion in total revenue. on deployment are an impediment to small
entrants, but larger players that already
•• Horizon 3—the longer term, with a have a market foothold can meet the costs
mature e-scooter market and more of compliance. Over time, these barriers to
broadly reorganized and integrated entry will continue to grow.
mobility systems. We estimate that 15
Megacities will generate more than The underlying unit economics, the barri-
one-third of overall industry revenue. ers to entry, and the fact that few mobility
In this phase, scooters will extend their modes today have more than a handful of
range beyond core urban areas and players will likely result in three to four
into the less dense outlying areas and significant players competing in any given
suburbs of Megacities, Weather- market. Our projection of the future eco-
Challenged Middleweights, and Scooter nomics suggests that companies with less
Paradises. E-scooters will have reached than 25% market share will struggle to do
most smaller towns with semiurban better than break even on a fully loaded
cores in Europe and elsewhere. At basis. This would mark a significant depar
Horizon 3, when suburbs and small ture from today’s landscape, in which up to
towns have fully adopted e-scooters, we ten players participate in some markets.
envision a fleet of some 4 million to
5 million scooters, generating revenues Consolidation is inevitable; we expect the
of between $12 billion and $15 billion first wave to happen as early as 2020. Be-
in the US and Europe alone; of the two, coming the dominant player in a region de-
Europe will have the larger market. mands a market-by-market or even city-by-
city approach. Without a hefty investment,
The long-term scenario will see continued late entrants will not be able to capture a
integration of micromobility in urban plan- leading position.
Boston Consulting Group | How E-Scooters Can Win a Place in Urban Transport 7The winners will most likely consist of a than 80% of fatal accidents involving bicy-
mix of global and local providers. Global cles or e-scooters are instances in which
champions will compete on the basis of cars or trucks strike riders. The rise in spe-
cost and ubiquity, while local champions cially designated lanes bodes well for
will capitalize on their inside knowledge e-scooter riders as well as for bicyclists, by
and local relationships to offer a more cus- providing a safer travel zone. Reallocating
tomized user experience. Naturally, this parking spaces that are now dedicated to
evolution will be dynamic; leading in 2020 automobiles would be another way to
does not mean that you are destined to win encourage greater use of micromobility
in 2025. The introduction of new product modes and reduce clutter on sidewalks. In
forms or major regulatory changes could the short term, such a move by cities might
easily reshuffle the winners’ roster and in- encounter opposition; but as congestion
troduce cracks for disruptors to exploit. grows, concerns about emissions increase,
and car ownership continues to decline
worldwide, the longer-term odds favor
Beyond the Horizon modest reallocations.
Reaching a global market in the double-
digit billions of dollars (or euros) will take
more than just time. E-scooter providers Making Scooters Work in
must cooperate closely with cities while Urban Mobility
continuing to refine and innovate their core Clearly, e-scooters will continue to be part
business models. As fleet operators and of the public debate on urban mobility for
city leaders gain a clearer understanding of years to come. While providers focus on
the optimal balance of supply and demand, growth and consolidation, city leaders must
they will be better equipped to compromise find ways to integrate scooters and other
on operational and regulatory guardrails micromobility modes into their urban mo-
addressing rules of the road, public safety, bility strategy.
parking and no-scooter zones, and other
concerns. Already, some cities are managing E-scooter operators must achieve sustain-
this balance smartly: the city of Santa Mon- able profits if they are to remain viable
ica, California, has adopted an adjustment businesses. And their viability is important
process to regulate the e-scooter fleet size if cities are to realize their goal of creating
of each operator on the basis of consumer environmentally sensitive micromobility
demand (rides per day). When the operator solutions that serve growing urban popula-
proves that its average ridership per scoot- tions. The two sides have work to do, both
er exceeds four rides per day, it can apply separately and together.
for permission to increase its fleet size.
The Challenges for Operators. Operators
With their longstanding bicycle culture and must continue to improve their economics,
infrastructure, many European cities, such especially as the market consolidates.
as Copenhagen and Berlin, are naturally Design and engineering improvements can
conducive to e-scooter growth. Further have an enormous impact on profitability,
scooter penetration will depend on advanc- considering the high cost of maintaining a
es in urban planning, as cities increasingly large e-scooter fleet. Increasing vehicle
turn their attention from the automobile longevity through product innovation and
and toward other public transit and micro- maintenance, along with further optimiz-
mobility solutions. Fleet operators could ing operations, will improve economics. So
pursue new business models, such as part- will pursuing various measures to boost
nering with public transit agencies to serve e-scooter use, such as package offers
as a more attractive first- and last-mile op- (including those that offer other transpor-
tion, particularly beyond urban centers. tation modes) and new pricing strategies.
Safety improvements would encourage Obviously, the price elasticity of demand
greater uptake, as well. At present, more will vary from one market to another. Fre-
Boston Consulting Group | How E-Scooters Can Win a Place in Urban Transport 8quency of use among riders is another have gathered. A good place to start is with
important consideration: occasional users permits and data requirements. Cities and
and tourists tend to be rather indifferent to policymakers also need to define rules of
price. To achieve critical mass as a bona the road, public safety requirements,
fide transportation alternative, e-scooters parking and no-scooter zones, and liability
need to be more attractive as an everyday considerations. Well-planned investment in
choice for commuters, rather than as an infrastructure, including bicycle lanes and
occasional choice. Commuters arguably designated parking, will advance safety
represent the most important segment for and encourage greater and more responsi-
future growth, and providers should consid- ble e-scooter use.
er addressing the needs of this segment
with special package rates designed to
boost the overall number of rides. Offering
such discounts to a high-volume segment
also creates a desirable lock-in effect, albeit
A bove all, providers and city leaders
need to work closely together to suc-
cessfully integrate e-scooters into the mo-
at the cost of eroding the gains in per-ride bility mix of the future. Their cooperation
unit economics. should encompass not only transportation
strategies, but also broader efforts to pro-
The industry as a whole needs to pay spe- mote solutions that serve the public good,
cial attention to issues of environmental such as programs for lower-income users.
sustainability. Beyond not generating emis- E-scooters are here to stay, and the progress
sions during operation, e-scooters must made thus far is a good indication that
achieve a light end-to-end environmental they (and micromobility forms in general)
footprint—from manufacturing and ship- will be an important staple of urban mobil-
ping to charging and disposal. The improve- ity in the future.
ments in hardware durability and battery
capability are an important first step.
The Challenges for Cities and Policymakers.
For their part, cities need to regulate
thoughtfully, drawing on the lessons of peer
cities and their own pilot programs, as well
as on data and analytics that operators
About the Authors
Justin Rose is a managing director and partner in the Chicago office of Boston Consulting Group. He is a
member of BCG’s global Industrial Goods leadership team and leads the firm’s global digital efforts for
the Industrial Goods practice. You may contact him by email at rose.justin@bcg.com.
Daniel Schellong is a principal in the firm’s Berlin office and a lead in the firm’s automotive and mobili-
ty sector, with a focus on digital business models and growth. You may contact him by email at schellong.
daniel@bcg.com.
Carsten Schaetzberger is a managing director and partner in BCG’s Stuttgart office. He leads the firm’s
Industrial Goods practice in Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East. You may contact him by
email at schaetzberger.carsten@bcg.com.
Jeff Hill is a managing director and senior partner in the firm's Los Angeles office. He is also the manag-
ing partner for global operations and people at BCG Digital Ventures. You may contact him by email at
hill.jeff@bcg.com.
Acknowledgment
The authors wish to thank Matt Smith-Daniels for his extensive contributions to this article. They also
greatly appreciate the assistance of Marco Werner, Ferdinand von Bennigsen, and Philipp Sadek.
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