INDICATIVE VOTES UPDATE - DEHAVILLAND CONTENT TEAM APRIL 2019

DeHavilland Briefing Note

Indicative votes
Update

DeHavilland Content Team
April 2019

Introduction
DeHavilland                                                             Indicative votes - Update

Introduction

It was one of the certainties in the British constitution that Government controlled business in the
House of Commons.

Whether by the nature of our voting system which produces majority governments or by the party
whips, the executive has traditionally exercised dominance over the proceedings of the House of
Commons. However, in recent years most mechanisms of control have been tested as never before.
Theresa May’s government lost its majority in 2017, but structured key Commons committees as if
it had one. Party discipline has broken down as Brexit creates new fault lines across the House and
parliamentary procedure has been fittingly reinterpreted to accommodate these changing times.

On Monday 25 March 2019, the MPs took the unprecedented step of taking control of the business
of the House of Commons in a bid to break the Brexit impasse plaguing Parliament. An amendment
proposed by Conservative MP Sir Oliver Letwin was passed to create space for a process known as
‘indicative votes’ - a series of motions by which MPs can express support for varying types of Brexit.

Whilst journalistic shorthand has interpreted this move as Parliament ‘seizing control’ of Brexit, the
reality is that the move has farther reaching potential implications. In the past, there have been
very few avenues by which the Commons could compel governments to act. Yet this Parliament is
unusual, having seen the largest Commons defeat suffered by any government, the use of Humble
Addresses to compel the publication of key documents, and a government for the first time found in
contempt of Parliament. It is fair to say then that constitutional precedents have been pushed and
boundaries warped.

The first round of indicative votes took place on Wednesday 27 March, but MPs were unable to find
a majority for a single option. Proponents of the process had set aside further days for debate the
following week to help narrow down options and find a majority. At the same time, the opportunities
for the Government to push the Withdrawal Agreement are shrinking. The third rejection of the Prime
Minister’s deal on 29 March has left it all but certain that the UK will need to see a long extension to
Article 50 to avoid the legal default of leaving with no-deal on 12 April.

In this updated briefing, DeHavilland looks at the indicative vote process, how it works and explains
how different outcomes might affect Brexit and next steps.

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DeHavilland Information Services Ltd 2019                                         www.dehavilland.co.uk

DeHavilland                                                            Indicative votes - Update

What are indicative votes?

Indicative votes are where MPs vote on a series of motions in a bid to express a preference for
an option or options. These motions are neither legally binding nor binding on the Government.
Speaking following the third defeat of her deal by the Commons on 29 March, Theresa May implied
that she would accept an alternative proposition put forward by MPs if it involved accepting the
Withdrawal Agreement.

Why has this process been put in place?

The House of Commons has twice voted to reject the Withdrawal Agreement in the two Meaningful
Votes during January and March of this year. In addition, MPs have voted to rule out leaving the
EU without a deal and to extend Article 50. At the European Council Summit on 21 and 22 March,
Theresa May was granted an extension to the process by the EU 27 under the terms that if the
House of the Commons did not pass the Withdrawal Agreement by 29 March, Article 50 would be
extended until 12 April to allow the UK to come up with an alternative plan. This is the date by which
Britain must decide if it is taking part in the European Parliament elections.

The Letwin amendment, carving out parliamentary time for MPs to debate Brexit alternatives, is the
mechanism parliamentarians hope can be used to come up with an alternative. It had come close
to passing in the Commons on two previous occasions. On 25 March, it was passed by 329 votes
to 302.

Any decision over whether to whip indicative votes will be taken by each party. On 27 March, the
Government chose to offer a free vote to Conservative MPs, whilst Cabinet ministers abstained.
Labour whipped its MPs to support its own Brexit plan (Motion K), whilst also supporting motions on
a customs union and a confirmatory public vote.

In the second round of votes on 1 April, both the Labour frontbench and the SNP came out in support
of the motion for Common Market 2.0 (which would see the UK remain a member of the Single
Market).

What does the Letwin amendment do?

The amendment moved by Conservative MP Sir Oliver Letwin amends the rules of the Commons,
specifically Standing Order 14(1). This standing order means that Government business has
precedence on any sitting day (except Friday sittings and Opposition Days). Passing the Letwin
amendment created space for MPs to put forward their own proposals for a process to discuss Brexit
options.

Subsequent days for votes were allocated by the House passing business motions to suspend
Standing Order 14(1) on certain days, such as on 1 and 3 April.

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DeHavilland Information Services Ltd 2019                                        www.dehavilland.co.uk

DeHavilland                                                          Indicative votes - Update

What will the indicative vote process be?

Sir Oliver and his supporters have published Business Motions setting out the process they wished
the indicatives votes to follow. Said Business Motions are debated before the main debate and are
amendable.

The Business Motions would allow for several hours of debate on Brexit-alternative motions submitted
by MPs, these Brexit motions are the ones under consideration in the indicative vote process. At the
start of the debate, Commons Speaker John Bercow selects which of the submitted motions for the
main debate will be voted on and then voting takes place at the close of the debate with the results
announced later.

On the morning of Wednesday 27 March, MPs debated and voted on eight motions chosen by the
Speaker. Although no single option achieved an overall majority, the options that secured that most
votes were the commitment to seek a customs union (264 votes in favour) and a holding a second
referendum (268 votes in favour).

In the second round of votes held by Monday 1 April, eight motions were submitted on the Order
Paper for consideration, including:

1. The UK remaining in a customs union with the EU.
2. Remaining in the Single Market and the European Economic Area, including accepting conditional
   freedom of movement (also known as Common Market 2.0).
3. Membership of the European Free Trade Area (EFTA) and the European Economic Area (EEA),
   but rejecting a customs union with the EU.
4. Seeking a unilateral exit from the Backstop.
5. A second referendum.
6. Parliamentary supremacy – requiring the Government to either seek an extension to Article 50 in
   the event of no-deal or revoke it if the EU does not agree to one.
7. A public vote to prevent no-deal.
8. Leaving the EU without a deal.

On 1 April, the Business Motion allowed MPs to debate the motions selected by the Speaker until
8pm, with the result announced later that evening.

How will MPs vote on the options?

The House of Commons has voted on other Brexit options previously, but done so through the
divisions process on amendments to the Withdrawal Agreement. In that process MPs physically
walked through division lobbies in a process taking eight minutes per vote. Amendments were also
taken in sequence with the success or failure of one determining whether another would be taken.

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DeHavilland Information Services Ltd 2019                                      www.dehavilland.co.uk

DeHavilland                                                              Indicative votes - Update

The process for the indicative votes is different. Instead, MPs are given a ballot paper to vote on
all the options selected by Commons Speaker John Bercow at once. They will then be able to
simultaneously vote either ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ for each option, if they wish. The votes are counted at the
end and the Speaker announces the results.

The ballot is not secret, meaning the voting positions of MPs are known.

What happens after the vote?

The Commons Speaker will announce the results of the votes on Monday evening. MPs will be
hoping that that this second round of the indicative votes process will yield a clear majority of support
for a single option. However, Sir Oliver’s Business Motion also sets aside time for further debate
on Wednesday 3 April, suggesting that the most popular options from 1 April could be put to a third
round of votes.

Speaking following the first round of indicative votes, Sir Oliver Letwin indicated that:

       “If on [Monday 1 April] one or more propositions get a majority backing in the House of
       Commons, then we will have to work with the government to implement them.’

       “The way I would hope it would happen under those circumstances is that we would
       have sensible, workmanlike discussions across the House of Commons and
       the Government would move forward in an orderly fashion.’

       “If the Government didn’t agree to that, then those who I am working with across the parties
       will move to legislate to mandate the Government - if we can obtain majorities in the House
       of Commons and House of Lords for that - to carry that forward.”

The unknown factor is whether the Government would respect the outcome of the votes. Theresa
May’s attempt third attempt to pass the Withdrawal Agreement through the Commons on 29 March
was defeated by 286 votes to 344 votes. Downing Street are reportedly keen to bring the Withdrawal
Agreement for a fourth time, but at the time of writing it was unclear how this aspiration might dovetail
with the indicative votes process. The Government could choose to offer the deal as an option in
the third round of votes or ignore the process entirely and bring it back for another vote. ITV Political
Editor Robert Peston wondered if the emergence of a Commons majority around a softer form of
Brexit could be used to encourage Conservative Brexiteers and Labour MPs from Leave seats to
back the deal.

Nonetheless, the threat made by Sir Oliver to potentially legislate to bind the Government in law
to any indicative votes outcome is a very real one. The House of Commons coalescing around
an alternative to the Prime Minister’s deal, especially a softer form of Brexit, would reshape the
landscape of the Westminster Brexit debate. Control of the Order Paper is a potent new weapon for
MPs to deploy and we are just beginning to see its full potential.

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DeHavilland Information Services Ltd 2019                                          www.dehavilland.co.uk

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