THE PROPERTY MARKET - SOUTHERN - Estate Agents Melksham
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
THE
PROPERTY
MARKET
A REVIEW OF THE KEY TRENDS IN THE
NATIONAL AND LOCAL HOUSING MARKET.
SOUTHERN
Analysis by Datalof t | Summer 2020
A STRONG PRE-COVID MARKET SALES ↑2.1% ↓9.8% ↓9.5% ↑0.6% ↑2.9% House Property Mortgage New private homes Gross mortgage prices sales approvals built (completed) lending £231,855 March 2020 vs 86,200 March 2020 vs 56,161 March 2020 vs 39,550 Q4 2019 vs £22.6bn March 2020 vs £227,104 March 2019 95,540 March 2019 62,086 March 2019 39,320 Q4 2018 £22bn March 2019 Source: dataloft, Bank of England, HMRC, ONS, MHCLG, RICS COVID-19 caused the residential market to pause following a spring bounce. As we exit lockdown we hope to see the strong pre-COVID market return. Spring Economy Post-COVID-19 Improved consumer sentiment Following lockdown, the Chancellor The first day of the housing market following the election result and announced unprecedented support reopening in England saw 5.2 million Brexit clarity was reflected in the for business and individuals and the visits to Rightmove, up 4% on the spring housing market, with annual Bank of England lowered interest same day last year. This release of house price growth of 2.1% and an rates to 0.1%. Despite these pent-up demand will help get the annual increase of 3.7% in mortgage measures, the economy has been market back on track. Agents believe approvals in Q1 2020 (despite the fall affected, already contracting by transactions will take six to nine in March). The UK went into lockdown 2% in the three months to March months to reach pre-COVID levels on 23rd March, which resulted in a (ONS). The Bank of England expects and prices will take around 11 months. -9.8% drop in transactions in March, the economy to contract by 14% in Long-term price growth expectations while April volumes are estimated 2020, only returning to pre-COVID are similar to pre-COVID levels, with to be half the level of last year. On levels by mid-2021. The nation has average growth of just over 2% per 11th May, the government announced begun its journey back to normality annum over the next five years the UK COVID-19 exit strategy and but it will take time for the economy (RICS). England’s residential market to recover. reopened on 13th May. 2 | SOUTHERN HOUSING MARKET UPDATE Summer 2020
What requirements in a
property are now more
LETTINGS important than they were
pre-lockdown?
30%
30% A garden
25%
↑1.5% ↑2.5%
Average
rents
% increase
in rent 20% 21% Homeworking
space
April 2020 vs per annum over
April 2019 the next 5 years
15%
16% Broadband
speed
15% Less urban
area
The rental market
10%
During lockdown, agents reported
weakened demand and fewer landlord
instructions, which is no surprise considering
restrictions on moving. Rents increased by
1.5% in April, but it can take time for supply 5%
and demand pressures to show. Agents
expect some rental falls in the coming
months, but the long-term projections stand
at 2.5% per annum over the next five years.
With 39.5% of existing tenancies set to expire 0%
in Q3, it will be a busy quarter for agents.
Source: Dataloft Homemover Survey, showing response of those who had
been actively looking for a new home before lockdown and still intend to
move. Respondents could choose more than one option.
5.2m The Homemover Survey suggests that COVID-19
is likely to have left a legacy of consumer
visits to behaviour change, shifting the relative
Rightmove importance of house buyer requirements.
13th May, 4% up on the
same day a year ago.
Analysis by Dataloft 3e
THE LEGACY
OF COVID-19
Over the last few months, we have seen unprecedented changes
to our lives, some good and some bad, but which are here to stay?
Lockdown insights
70%
increase in
people on bikes
since lockdown.
Source: dataloft, Gov.uk
51%
valued time saved
Transport
COVID-19 has caused people to
premium already established for
homes within close proximity of
on commute most
consider alternative ways of getting to green space could increase. while working from home.
work, avoiding public transport. The Source: dataloft, Vodafone
government is encouraging schemes
Working from home
such as pop-up cycle lanes, wider Lockdown has proven to many
£2,500
pavements and school streets. Many sceptics that working from home is
local authorities have already begun viable and even convenient. Before
to make changes, and the government COVID-19 only 5% of people mainly
has invested £250 million to secure a
lasting legacy of greener, safer transport.
worked from home and less than
30% had ever worked from home.
price premium
Outside space
We don’t expect the end of offices: close to green space
many miss them and they have
within 100 metres, compared with
Following lockdown, the importance great social benefits. However,
of access to outside space is likely to working from home could become 500 metres away.
increase. Currently only 66% of flats more common and with it, the Source: dataloft, ONS
have access to private outside space, relative importance of commute
compared to 97% of houses. We may times, broadband speeds and
see a shift in building design and the space for a home office.
4 | SOUTHERN HOUSING MARKET UPDATE Summer 2020NATIONAL
MARKET CONDITIONS
The spring housing market
showed signs of improved consumer
sentiment. March house price growth
indicated a strong pre-COVID
market, with a 2.1% annual increase
in the UK. The strongest growth was
seen in London and the South West.
It is too early to tell the impact SCOTLAND
1.5%
COVID-19 will have on house prices,
CURRENT ANNUAL RATE
but they are likely to be protected
OF PRICE CHANGE
from major falls as, unlike previous Below 0%
downturns, house prices have been 0% – 2.0%
2.0% – 4.0%
relatively stable. There is a good
Over 4.0%
balance between supply and
Source: dataloft, ONS,
demand and banks are still lending UKHPI March 2020
with fixed mortgage rates at an
all-time low based on interest
rates of 0.1%.
NORTH EAST
NORTHERN
IRELAND
1.8%
3.8%
NORTH WEST
3.4% YORKSHIRE AND
THE HUMBER
-1.0%
Annual change in house prices
EAST MIDLANDS
and transactions
4%
WEST
2.1%
2% MIDLANDS
0.4%
EAST OF ENGLAND
1.6%
0%
WALES
1.1%
-2%
-4%
-6% SOUTH
EAST
2.0%
-8%
SOUTH WEST
4.1%
-10%
APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20
House prices Transactions
LONDON
4.7%
Source: dataloft, UKHPI, HMRC
Analysis by Dataloft SOUTHERN HOUSING MARKET UPDATE | 5REGIONAL ACTIVITY
IN THE SOUTHERN REGION
The South West and South East House price growth was very
experienced strong annual house varied across the Southern region,
price growth in March as a result of ranging from 8.5% in Winchester
improved consumer sentiment to -5.1% in Basingstoke and Deane.
following the election result and
Brexit clarity. Annual house prices
increased by 4.1% in the South West,
well above the UK average of 2.1%,
while the South East performed
broadly in line with the UK at 2%.
Swindon
CURRENT ANNUAL RATE
OF PRICE CHANGE
Less than -2.5%
-2.5% to 0%
0% to 2.5%
2.5% to 5.0%
Over 5%
Wiltshire
Basingstoke Hart
Source: dataloft, ONS, and Deane
UKHPI March 2020. Rushmoor
Contains OS data
@Crown copyright and Test Ha
amp
mpsh
shi
hireEast
database right 2016.
Valley Hampshire
Winchester
Eastleigh
Southampton
et New Forest
Havant
Dorset
am Portsmouth
reh
Fa Gosport
Isle of
Wight
Bournemouth,
Christchurch and Poole
March house price growth indicated a strong
pre-COVID market in the UK.
6 | SOUTHERN HOUSING MARKET UPDATE Summer 20205.2%
Eastleigh
Open for business
private housing The residential market reopened on
annual turnover the 13th May in England, with estate
agents given the green light for
Source: dataloft, ONS, UKHPI
viewings, conveyancing and moves.
The number of visits to Rightmove
on day one demonstrated the extent
of pent-up demand. Sales enquiries
doubled between Tuesday 12th May
Most active housing markets across the region and Wednesday 13th May and are only
10% down on a year ago.
RANK % OF PRIVATE AVERAGE
STOCK TURNOVER HOUSE PRICE
Rightmove had
1 EASTLEIGH 5.2% £290,453 5.2 million visits on
2 TEST VALLEY 5.2% £319,963 13th May, up 4%
3 BASINGSTOKE AND DEANE 5.1% £291,205 on last year.
4 SWINDON 5.0% £218,551
5 EAST HAMPSHIRE 4.9% £366,418
6 HART 4.8% £402,548 The next 12 months
7 WILTSHIRE 4.6% £272,870 It will take time for consumer
sentiment to improve and for some
8 BOURNEMOUTH, 4.4% £283,469 people to feel secure in their jobs and
CHRISTCHURCH AND POOLE ready to re-enter the housing market,
but we are already seeing positive
9 ISLE OF WIGHT 4.4% £216,133 signs. For some, several months
10 RUSHMOOR 4.4% £270,423 confined to their homes will have
11 encouraged them to act on long-held
WINCHESTER 4.4% £441,880
dreams of moving. We hope to see
12 GOSPORT 4.3% £218,452 the housing market strengthen over
13 FAREHAM 4.2% £295,434 the rest of 2020.
14 HAVANT 4.1% £259,563
15 Agents surveyed
SOUTHAMPTON 4.0% £199,660
16
by the RICS in April
PORTSMOUTH 3.9% £206,572
expected it would
17 NEW FOREST 3.8% £339,640
take 6 to 9 months to
18 DORSET 3.7% £285,051
return to pre-COVID
transaction levels.
Source: dataloft, ONS, UKHPI
NB Stock levels relate to 2011 Census data. Some areas have seen increased amounts
of new development activity since then, which will enhance turnover rates.
Analysis by Dataloft SOUTHERN HOUSING MARKET UPDATE | 7'
ABOUT THE
'
GUILD OF
'
PROPERTY '
PROFESSIONALS
The Guild is a UK-wide network
of independent estate and letting
agents. Each of our Members
has been carefully chosen by us,
all agents adhering to our
Code of Conduct.
If you want independent guidance
on moving home or are looking
for the best agent in your area,
visit guildproperty.co.uk
The Guild of Property Professionals
121 Park Lane, Mayfair, London W1K 7AG
020 7629 4141 | parklane@guildproperty.co.uk | guildproperty.co.uk
Analysis by Dataloft
Dataloft is an established property market intelligence Disclaimer: This report is produced for general information
company with a long track record of analysing and only. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy
of this publication, Dataloft Ltd accepts no liability for any loss
reporting on the housing market. We are committed to or damage of any nature arising from its use. At all times the
stripping away the mystique of complex data analysis content remains the property of Dataloft Ltd under copyright,
and adding value for clients through interpretation, and reproduction of all or part of it in any form is prohibited
without written permission from Dataloft Ltd.
insight and creativity.
Date of publication: June 2020
dataloft.co.uk | informpropertyanalysis.com Analysis, editorial, design, graphics and charts by Dataloft.You can also read
