BPFI Housing Market Monitor - Q2/2017 With a commentary by Dr Ali Uğur Chief Economist, Banking & Payments Federation Ireland - Banking & ...
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BPFI Housing Market Monitor
Q2/2017
With a commentary by Dr Ali Uğur
Chief Economist, Banking & Payments Federation Ireland
www.bpfi.ieOVERVIEW OF TRENDS BPFI HOUSING MARKET MONITOR Q2/2017
Indicator Latest quarter One year ago % change
Dwelling completions (Apr-May) 3,099 2,443 26.9%
Dwelling commencements (Apr-May) 3,673 2,286 60.7%
Dwellings listed for sale 13,923 16,077 -13.4%
Dwellings listed for rent 16,724 17,767 -5.9%
Yr/yr change in transaction prices 11.6% 5.5%
Yr/yr change in list prices 11.7% 6.3%
Yr/yr change in list rents 11.8% 11.0%
Average rent nationwide (Q1) €1,027 €958 7.2%
Transactions 12,320 11,553 6.6%
Mortgage approvals 11,784 9,419 25.1%
Mortgage drawdowns 8,000 6,803 17.6%
www.bpfi.ieCOMMENTARY BPFI HOUSING MARKET MONITOR Q2/2017
Pick up in house building needs to accelerate year. In value terms activity increased by 23.3% over the same period with the
total value of approvals reaching €5.3 billion in the first half of 2017 compared
Residential property prices in Ireland nationally have increased by around 58% to around €3.6 billion during the same period in 2016.
since the trough in early 2013. Price increases seem to have gained momentum
since the second half of 2016 after levelling at single digits and reached 11.6% BPFI loan level data
in the year to June 2017 according to latest data from the CSO. Overall, Dublin For the first time BPFI is publishing loan-level data uniquely collated from our
residential property prices are 29.9% lower than their February 2007 peak, member banks. Among other things this shows that, at €56,800, Dublin had
while residential property prices in the rest of Ireland are 34.6% lower than the highest median deposit in Q2 2017 at €56,800 for first time buyers (FTBs)
their May 2007 peak. Housing undersupply is also evident in the market rents and €119,459 for mover purchasers - which is reflection of prices. The median
charged by landlords. According to the latest Daft.ie Rental Report, rents in deposit in Dublin rose by 11.6% year-on-year for FTBs and by 6.6% for mover
Dublin are now 66% higher than at their lowest point whereas outside Dublin purchasers. By contrast in the Dublin commuter areas the average deposit for
rents have risen by 41%. FTBs fell by 7.5% year-on-year in Q1 2017 and by 13.2% in Q2 2017 and was
€31,910 for FTBs and €77,288 for mover purchasers.
It is now accepted by all commentators that the current acceleration in
residential property prices is mainly due to the persistent lack of supply as Cash sales have always been a part of the housing market activity in Ireland.
well as higher incomes driven by strong growth in the economy. Some 38,600 However, between 2009 and 2015 they gained further importance accounting
housing units were completed between 2014 and 2016 while estimates show for more than half of the total transactions during some years. As a proportion
that there was need for around 75,000 units during the same period. Activity of total housing transactions the ratio has been falling recently. BPFI loan-
has been picking up both in terms of completions and commencements in the level data shows that, as of second quarter of 2017, cash sales accounted
last couple of years, but assuming a 20% annual growth rate in completions, for around 34.5% of housing market transactions on an annualised basis,
total completions will only reach just over 30,000 units in 2020. excluding portfolio purchases and non-market transactions. This shows a
decline from 40.5% in the same period in 2016. We still observe significant
BPFI data show that there were 8,000 mortgage drawdowns valued at €1,647 regional variation in the annualised ratio of activity accounted for by cash sales
million in the second quarter of 2017. This brings the total drawdowns to just though, ranging from 17.4% in Monaghan to around 71.2% in Roscommon.
over €3 billion in the first half of 2017 compared to around €2.3 billion during the In Dublin, the annualised cash sales ratio has fallen year-on-year since Q2
same period in 2016 – a 30% increase. Average drawdowns increased in value 2014, reaching 25.2% in Q2 2017 compared with 38.7% in Q4 2013. There is
by around 9% between the second quarter of 2016 and 2017 rising from around a high correlation between the ratio of cash sales and the level of prices in
€189,000 to €206,000, as average mortgage drawdowns tracked housing prices. different regions in Ireland as lower prices would allow for a higher level of
cash purchases. That said, in certain regions the availability of lower price
Mortgage approval activity increased in volume terms by 17.0% year-on-year in housing units is diminishing significantly which is perhaps reflected in a lower
July 2017 bringing the total number of approvals to 25,407 in the first half of the level of cash purchases.
www.bpfi.ieCOMMENTARY BPFI HOUSING MARKET MONITOR Q2/2017
Est. Cash Sales by County
HMM Regions Counties (group) 1 Q2
Dublin Dublin 19.4%
Dublin Commuter Louth 34.0%
Wicklow 30.2%
Kildare 19.3%
Meath 17.5%
Cork/Galway/Limerick/Waterford Waterford
36.2%
Limerick 33.9%
Cork 30.2%
Galway 21.6%
Rest of Leinster Wexford 52.2%
Other Rest
of Leinster 36.4%
Rest of Munster Kerry 55.4%
Tipperary
48.5%
Clare 23.9%
Rest of Connacht-Ulster Other Connacht
63.1%
Donegal 45.3%
Mayo 45.0%
Other Ulster
33.8%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Annualised Cash Sales % Source: CSO, BPFI
In addition to providing mortgage funding to individual customers, BPFI funding model. At the same time Government could play an important role by
member banks are well positioned to provide the appropriate level of financial supporting the provision of new and innovative financing structures such as
support to feasible house building projects. Such lending is taking place on a use of European Investment Bank funding as well as hybrid models involving
prudent basis in the interests of both borrower and lender, whereby a certain non-bank players as well as banks.
percentage (depending on project specifics) of the funding requirements is
provided. This requires the builder/developer to fund the remaining amount
by means of own resources or some other means. Many of the new breed Dr Ali Uğur, Chief Economist,
of builder/developer are working very successfully and effectively with this Banking & Payments Federation Ireland
www.bpfi.ieHOUSING SUPPLY BPFI HOUSING MARKET MONITOR Q2/2017
New dwellings completed 2015 20152016 2016 20172017
*Data available up to May 2017.
Almost 3,100 new homes were completed in the
first two months of Q2 of 2017 (the latest figures 4,500 4,500
available at the time of going to press). This
represented a 27% increase in the number of new 4,000
4,000
homes connected to the electricity grid, compared
to the same two months in 2016*. Completions 3,500
have now been growing at a rate of at least 15% 3,500
since late 2015.
3,000
The growth in completions in the first two months 3,000
of 2017 was strongest in Dublin, at 32%. The rate 2,500
of growth was similar in Leinster (outside Dublin)
2,500
and Munster, at 29% and 28% respectively. It was
slowest in Connacht-Ulster, where completions 2,000
were 15% higher than in April and May 2016. 2,000
1,500
* The Department of Housing, Planning and Local Government
has been using new electricity connections as a proxy for housing 1,500
completion since 1970. 1,000
1,000
500
500
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 of Housing
Source: Department
www.bpfi.ieHOUSING SUPPLY 5,500
BPFI HOUSING MARKET MONITOR Q2/2017
5,000
New dwellings commenced 4,500 2015 2016 2017 *Data available up to May 2017.
Almost 3,700 new dwellings were started in April and
May 2017, the latest figures available. Compared 4,500 4,000
with the same period in 2016, this represented a rise
of 61% in new homes started. This means that the
4,000 3,500
second quarter of 2017 was the fifth straight quarter
where the number commenced exceeded 3,000.
3,500 3,000
The rise in commencements was apparent across
all four regions, with 60% more commencements in
April and May in Dublin than in the same two months 3,000 2,500
in 2016 and a 70% increase in the rest of Leinster.
Elsewhere in the country, commencements rose
2,500 2,000
by 52% in Munster and by 53% in Connacht-Ulster,
compared to the same two months in 2016.
2,000 1,500
1,500 1,000
1,000 500
500
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 of Housing
Source: Department
www.bpfi.ieHOUSING SUPPLY BPFI HOUSING MARKET MONITOR Q2/2017
Properties listed for sale 2015 2016 2017 Source: Daft.ie
The second quarter of 2017 saw just under 14,000
properties listed for sale, a fall of 13% compared to 4,500
the same period in 2016. This is the smallest number 16,000
of properties listed between April and June since
4,000
2013, with over 16,000 listed for sale in the same
14,000
period last year.
3,500
The fall in listings was observed in all five regions 12,000
analysed. In both Dublin and elsewhere in Leinster,
there was an 8% fall in listings. In the four other cities 3,000
10,000
and in Munster (outside the cities), the fall in listings
was sharper (down 20% and 21% respectively). In 8,000
2,500
Connacht-Ulster, there was a 16% fall in listings.
6,000
2,000
4,000
1,500
2,000
1,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
500
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
www.bpfi.ieHOUSING SUPPLY BPFI HOUSING MARKET MONITOR Q2/2017
Properties listed for rent 2015 2016 2017 Source: Daft.ie
The second quarter of 2017 saw just over 16,700
properties listed for rent nationwide, a fall of 6% 4,50025,000
compared to the same three months in 2016.
Following the 1% increase in the first quarter, this
4,000
marked a return to a fall in listings, as was the case
in the previous 20 quarters covered in this report.
3,50020,000
Rental listings were 7% lower in Dublin than a year
previously, the same rate as in the rest of Leinster.
In the four other cities, there was a 10% fall, while 3,000
in Munster (outside the cities) there was a 2% rise
in rental listings in the second quarter. In Connacht- 15,000
2,500
Ulster, the number of rental listings in the second
quarter was 2% lower than a year previously.
2,000
10,000
1,500
1,000
500 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
www.bpfi.ieHOUSING PRICES & RENTS BPFI HOUSING MARKET MONITOR Q2/2017
28%
Transaction prices 24%
20%
National
28% Ex-Dublin
16% Dublin
Residential property prices nationwide rose by 11.6% in the year 28% 24% 28%
National
12%
24% 24%
to June 2017, according to the CSO. On a quarterly basis, this was 20% Ex-Dublin
National
8%
20% 20%
the highest rate of annual inflation in sale prices since the second 16% Dublin
Ex-Dublin
4%
16% 16% Dublin
quarter of 2015, with the rate of inflation over twice the rate seen 12%
0%
12% 12%
a year ago, when prices were rising at a rate of 5.5%. 8%
-4%
8% 8%
-8%
4% 4% 4%
Inflation in residential property prices in Dublin was 11.1%, -12%
0% 0% 0%
having been just 2.4% in the third quarter of 2015. Nonetheless,
-4% -4%
it remained slightly below the rate seen elsewhere in the country -8%
Q1
-4%
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
-8%
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
(11.8%). The rate of inflation in housing prices outside Dublin has -12%
-8% 2014
-12%
2015 2016 2017 Source: CSO
now been above 10% for eleven of the past twelve quarters. -12%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q1
Q2 Q3
Q2 Q4
Q3 Q1
Q4 Q2
Q1 Q3
Q2 Q3
Q4 Q4
Q1 Q2
Q1 Q3
Q2 Q3
Q4 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q
Q1
2014
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2015 2014 2016 2015 2017 2016 2017
2014 2015 2016
Listed sale prices 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%
Dublin
20% 20% 20% 20% Leinster
20%
As in previous quarters, list prices show a very similar trend to
National
transaction prices but also give a detailed breakdown by region. 15%
15%
15% 15% 15%
Munster
The figures showed an 11.7% year-on-year increase nationally in the 10% 10%
10% 10%
Other cities
second quarter of 2017, the highest rate of inflation since Q1 2015. 10%
5% 5% Connacht-Ulster
5% 5%
5%
Inflation in Dublin list prices was at 12.3% in the second quarter 0% 0%
0% 0%
and, as with transaction prices, this marked a significant increase in 0% -5% -5%
inflation compared to a year previously. In the other cities, inflation -5% -5%
-10% -10%
was 11.7% and has not been below 10% since the first half of 2014. -10%
-5%
-10%
In Leinster (outside Dublin), annual inflation in list prices was 13.4%, -15% -15%
-10%
in Munster 10.2% and in Connacht-Ulster 7.8%. This marked a -15% -15% -20% -20%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2Q1 Q3Q2 Q4 Q3 Q1Q4 Q2Q1 Q3Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q
further cooling of inflation in Connacht-Ulster, but a reacceleration -20% -15% -20% 2014 2015 2014 2016 2015
of inflation in Leinster and Munster. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q1
Q2 Q2
Q3 Q3
Q4 Q1
Q4 Q2 Q2
Q1 Q3 Q3Q4 Q4Q1 Q1Q2 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
-20% 2014 2015 2014 20162015 2017 Source:
2016 Daft.ie
2017
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2014 2015 2016
www.bpfi.ieHOUSING PRICES & RENTS BPFI HOUSING MARKET MONITOR Q2/2017
Listed rental prices 16%
25%
16% Dublin
20% Leinster
14% 14%
Inflation in listed rents nationwide in the second quarter of 2017 was National
15%
11.8%, down from 13.4% in Q1 2017. Despite the slowdown, this marked 12% 12% Munster
Other cities
the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit inflation nationwide. 10% 10% 10%
Connacht-Ulster
In Dublin, the rate of inflation was 12.3% in the second quarter of 2017, 8% 5% 8%
down slightly on the figure for earlier in the year (13.9%). In all four other 6% 6%
0%
regions, rental inflation also eased slightly but remained at elevated
4% 4%
levels. In the four other cities, inflation was 8.3% while in Leinster -5%
(outside Dublin), it was 12.8%, the twelfth quarter of rental inflation in 2% 2%
-10%
excess of 10%. In Munster and in Connacht-Ulster, rental inflation was
0% 0%
also above 10%, at 10.6% in Munster and 11.7% in Connacht-Ulster. -15%
-2% -2%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3Q4 Q4 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4Q4 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
-20%
€1,400 2014
Q1 Q2 Q3 2014
Q4 2015
Q1 Q2 Q3 2015
Q42016 Q1 Q2 2017
Q3 2016Source: Daft.ie 2017
2014 2015 2016
€1,300
Average rents
€1,500 €1,500 Dublin
Leinster
€1,200
€1,400 €1,400
National
The most recent information available on lease rents as of late €1,100
€1,300 €1,300
Munster
August relates to the first quarter of 2017. Nationwide, the average Dublin
Connacht-Ulster
Dublin
Leinster Leinst
rent charged in the first quarter of 2017 was €1,027, up from a €1,000
€1,200 €1,200
National Nation
low of €801 in mid-2012 and just 0.5% below the 2008 peak of €900
€1,100 €1,100 Munster Muns
just under €1,032. (National averages are calculated using Census Connacht-Ulster Conna
weights for the number of households in rental accommodation.) €1,000
€800 €1,000
€900
€700 €900
Rents in Dublin were substantially higher than this, with an
average rent of €1,452, up from a low of €1,054 in Q1 2011. €800
€600 €800
Average rents in Leinster were slightly above the average for €700 €700
Munster, at €847 and €788 respectively. Rents in Connacht-Ulster €500
were the lowest of the four regions shown, with average rents in €600
€400
€600
the first quarter of 2017 of €720. €500
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
€500
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2014 2015 2016
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1Q1 Q2Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4Q4 Q1Q1 Q2Q2 Q3Q3 Q4Q4 Q1Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2014 2015
2014 2016
2015 2017 Source: PRTB2017
2016
www.bpfi.iePROPERTY TRANSACTIONS & MORTGAGES BPFI HOUSING MARKET MONITOR Q2/2017
2015 2016 2017
Property Transactions 2015 2016 2017 Source: RPPR
4,500
In the second quarter of 2017, the number of residential 4,500
property transactions in Ireland was just over 12,300. This 4,500 4,000
4,000
represented a rise of 6.6% compared to the same three
months of 2017 and was the highest total for the April- 3,500
4,000
3,500
June period on record, going back to 2010.
3,000 3,000
There was an 11.6% rise in the number of transactions in 3,500
Dublin in Q2 2017 compared to the same period in 2016, 2,500 2,500
while in the rest of Leinster, there was growth of 9.9% in
transaction volumes in the same period. Elsewhere, there 3,000
2,000
2,000
was 6% growth in transaction volumes in Munster but a
5.5% fall in transactions in Connacht-Ulster. 1,500
2,500 1,500
1,000
* Note: These numbers are based on transactions registered with the Residential Property
1,000
Price Register by late August 2017 and are subject to revision. 2,000
500
500
1,500
Dublin Leinster Munster Connacht
1,000
500
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
www.bpfi.iePROPERTY TRANSACTIONS & MORTGAGES BPFI HOUSING MARKET MONITOR Q2/2017
Mortgage Approvals 2015 2016 2017 Source: BPFI
Mortgage approvals offer an early indicator of credit
4,500 12,000
conditions in the mortgage market. The second quarter
of 2017 saw almost 11,800 mortgages approved.
11,000
This was the highest three-month total in the series.
4,000
It also means that the four highest quarterly totals
10,000
since the start of 2011 have come from the most
recent four quarters (Q3 2016 on). The vast majority 3,500
10,000
of the approvals (almost 10,300) related to property
purchases, rather than refinancing or equity release.
3,000 9,000
8,000
2,500
7,000
Mortgage Drawdowns 2,000 6,000
Given the nature of the housing market, the
5,000
volume of mortgage drawdowns generally reflects 1,500
transaction levels and again offers an indicator of
4,000
credit conditions. In total, 8,000 mortgages were
1,000
drawn down between April and June, of which
3,000
almost 6,800 related to property purchase. This is
the third largest quarterly total since the start of 500 2,000
2011. The annual growth rate of 18% on the same
period in 2016 marks the fifth consecutive quarter
1,000
of year-on-year growth in drawdowns.
Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2
Q3 Q4 Q3
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q4
Approvals Drawdowns
www.bpfi.ieMORTGAGES BPFI HOUSING MARKET MONITOR Q2/2017
Customer Type
FTB Mover Purchase
Mortgage Deposits €130K €130K D
D
€120K €120K R
The median deposit for FTBs fell by 5.5% year- R
on-year to €34,000 while the median deposit for €110K €110K R
C
mover purchasers rose by 1.9% to €81,480.
€100K €100K N
Dublin had by far the highest median deposit
in Q2 2017 at €56,800 for FTBs and €119,459 €90K €90K
for mover purchasers. The median deposit rose €80K €80K
by 11.6% year-on-year for FTBs and by 6.6% for
Median Deposit
mover purchasers. €70K €70K
The Dublin Commuter region had the second €60K €60K
highest median deposits (€31,910 for FTBs and
€77,288 for mover purchasers). However, the €50K €50K
median Dublin commuter deposit for FTBs fell
by 7.5% year-on-year in Q1 2017 and by 13.2% €40K €40K
in Q2 2017.
€30K €30K
The median deposit for FTBs also fell year-on-
€20K €20K
year in Cork/Galway/Limerick/Waterford (down
by 9.3%) and in the rest of Connacht-Ulster €10K €10K
(down 11.7%).
2015 Q2
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
2017 Q1
2017 Q2
2015 Q2
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
2017 Q1
2017 Q2
Customer Type
FTB Mover Purchase
€130K Dublin
Dublin Commuter
€120K Rest of Munster
Rest of Leinster
€110K Rest of Connacht-Ulster
Cork/Galway/Limerick/Waterford
€100K National
Source: BPFI
€90K
www.bpfi.ieMORTGAGES BPFI HOUSING MARKET MONITOR Q2/2017
Customer Type
FTB Mover Purchase
Borrower Incomes €130K €130K D
D
€120K €120K R
Median borrower incomes (the sum of all R
borrower incomes) rose by 2.6% year-on-year €110K €110K R
C
for FTBs to €65,000 and by 0.8% for mover
€100K €100K N
purchasers to €98,592.
Median borrower income was highest in Dublin, €90K €90K
followed by Dublin Commuter and Cork/
Median Total Annual Income
€80K €80K
Galway/Limerick/Waterford. Median incomes
grew by less than 3% year-on-year in each of €70K €70K
these regions but they rose by 7-8% in the rest
of Leinster and the rest of Munster. €60K €60K
Median Dublin FTB incomes grew by 2.4% €50K €50K
year on-year to €76,776 while median mover
purchase incomes rose by only 0.4% to €40K €40K
€116,502.
€30K €30K
In Dublin Commuter, median mover purchase
€20K €20K
incomes have fallen year-on-year in each of the
past three quarters, reaching €96,000 in Q2 €10K €10K
2017. The median FTB income fell to €66,275.
2015 Q2
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
2017 Q1
2017 Q2
2015 Q2
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
2017 Q1
2017 Q2
Customer Type
FTB Mover Purchase
€130K Dublin
Dublin Commuter
€120K Rest of Munster
Rest of Leinster
€110K Rest of Connacht-Ulster
Cork/Galway/Limerick/Waterford
€100K National
Source: BPFI
€90K
www.bpfi.ieMORTGAGES BPFI HOUSING MARKET MONITOR Q2/2017
Customer Type
FTB Mover Purchase
Price-to-Income Ratios D
D
4.2 4.2 R
The ratio of property purchase price to the R
combined incomes of borrowers (price-to- 4.0 4.0 R
C
income) is a useful measure of affordability
3.8 3.8 N
and complements the Central Bank of Ireland’s
loan-to-income ratio. 3.6 3.6
Median Price-to-income ratio
The median price-to-income (PtI) ratio rose 3.4 3.4
year-on-year by 4% for FTBs and by 4.6% for
mover purchasers. The FTB PtI was higher 3.2 3.2
at 3.62, compared with 3.35 for movers.
3.0 3.0
Looked at on a regional basis, in Dublin,
the median PtI was 4.17 for FTBs, up 7.2% 2.8 2.8
year-on-year, and 3.9 for mover purchase
loans, up 5.1%. 2.6 2.6
For Dublin Commuter, the median FTB PtI 2.4 2.4
rose by 5.5% to 3.75, while the median mover
2.2 2.2
purchase PtI to by 5% to 3.44.
2.0 2.0
2015 Q2
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
2017 Q1
2017 Q2
2015 Q2
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
2017 Q1
2017 Q2
Customer Type
FTB Mover Purchase
€130K Dublin
Dublin Commuter
€120K Rest of Munster
Rest of Leinster
€110K Rest of Connacht-Ulster
Cork/Galway/Limerick/Waterford
€100K National
Source: BPFI
€90K
www.bpfi.ieABOUT THE REPORT BPFI HOUSING MARKET MONITOR Q2/2017
The information presented here is based on a range of publicly available reports and datasets and collated by
Identify Consulting for Banking & Payments Federation of Ireland. It is intended to bring together the range of
housing and mortgage market data available and to constructively inform on-going analysis and assessment of
the housing and mortgage market.
Figures are presented by quarter and by region, where possible. Unless otherwise specified, quantities given
for particular quarters (and/or regions) are totals, while prices are averages for the entire quarter. The sources
used for compiling the report are as follows:
• the Department of Housing, Community & Local Government [dwelling completions and commencements]
• the Central Statistics Office [residential property price indices and transactions for cash sales estimates]
• the Residential Property Price Register [number of transactions]
• the Residential Tenancies Board [average rents]
• Daft.ie [number of properties listed for sale and for rent; indices of listed sale and rental prices]
• Banking & Payments Federation of Ireland [mortgage approvals, drawdowns, median incomes, median
deposits, median price-to-income ratios and estimated cash sales ratios]
www.bpfi.ieMORTGAGES BPFI HOUSING MARKET MONITOR Q2/2017
HMM cash sales %
Cash Sales
55% 55%
Cash sales as a proportion of total housing
transactions (cash sales ratio) has been falling
50% 50%
in recent quarters in all regions. The annualised
cash sales ratio nationwide fell to 34.5% in
Q2 2017 from 40.5% in Q2 2016. 45% 45%
In Dublin, the cash sales ratio has fallen year- 40% 40%
on-year since Q2 2014, reaching 25.2% in Q2
2017. That compared with 38.7% in Q4 2013.
35% 35%
The cash sales ratio is higher in other regions.
The Dublin Commuter ratio has fallen from 33% 30% 30%
in Q2 2016 to 27.9% a year later. In the other
regions the cash sales ratio fell by between five 25% 25%
and seven percentage points year-on-year in
Q2 2017. Cash sales in Cork/Galway/Limerick/
20% 20%
Waterford fell to 36.1% while the in other
regions it ranged between 46% and 52%.
15% 15%
10% 10%
2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2
Customer Type
FTB Mover Purchase
€130K Dublin
Dublin Commuter
€120K Rest of Munster
Rest of Leinster
€110K Rest of Connacht-Ulster
Cork/Galway/Limerick/Waterford
€100K National
Source: BPFI, CSO.Note: Based on annualised data.
€90K
www.bpfi.ieBanking & Payments Federation Ireland, Nassau House, Nassau Street, Dublin 2, D02Y240, Ireland. +353 1 671 53 11 info@bpfi.ie www.bpfi.ie Dublin • Brussels • Frankfurt
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