How to Validate that Building a Safe System Road Environment Can Save Lives in Low & Middle Income Countries - Prof. Raphael Grzebieta Transport ...
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How to Validate that Building a Safe
System Road Environment Can Save Lives
in Low & Middle Income Countries
Prof. Raphael Grzebieta
Transport and Road Safety (TARS) Research Centre
University of New South Wales
http://www.tars.unsw.edu.au/
World Health
Safe System Organisation
Approach underpins(WHO)
many
Safe System roadunderpins
Approach
country’s WHO’s strategy
safety strategy
World Health
Safe System Organisation
Approach underpins(WHO)
many
Safe System roadunderpins
Approach
country’s WHO’s strategy
safety strategy
Data capture and analysis is critical Indonesia – Sumatra – Palm Oil Plantations
Data capture and analysis is critical Indonesia – Sumatra – Palm Oil Plantations
Data capture and analysis is critical Indonesia – Sumatra – Palm Oil Plantations
Data capture and analysis is critical Indonesia – Sumatra – Palm Oil Plantations
Data capture and analysis is critical Indonesia – Sumatra – Palm Oil Plantations
Safe System Principles
This evolved from analysis of detailed forensic crash data
Newtonian laws of physics the same everywhere
Pedestrian or
cyclist impact
WORK ZONE
LIMITS Design impact speed
limit for survival –
recoverable injury
Make crashes survivable
Pedestrian or
cyclist impact
Any speed above
70 km/h is certain
death
?
Real world with
inadequate speed
enforcementHigh Risk Crash Locations (potential Black Spots)
High Risk Crash Locations (potential Black Spots)
High Risk Crash Locations (potential Black Spots)
High Risk Crash Locations (potential Black Spots)
High Risk Crash Locations (potential Black Spots)
High Risk Crash Locations (potential Black Spots) Source: Harris P., Application Of Safe System (Safe Roads) To Existing Highways In Developing Countries, Safe System on Highways in Developing Countries http://static1.squarespace.com/static/531176a9e4b0d2c24312b29b/t/5568387ce4b0101076d9f515/1 432893564704/for+Publication_Safe+system+on+highways+of+developing+countries.pdf.
Romania – deadly intersections
Romania – deadly intersections
At night car crossing will not be seen
because it is side on.
Also if low beam on distance ≈ 20 m
No lighting 19 m/sec x 1.5 sec ≈ 29 m
Side impact at 70 km/h!Intersection crashes
Real world with
Side
inadequate speed
collision enforcementHead-on crashes
Median wire-rope barrier installation
• NZ Centennial Highway
– 1996 to 2000: 8 fatalities, 2 serious injury and 7
minor
– 2001 to 2004 removed passing lanes & wide yellow
double tactile lines & reflectors & signs: 4 fatalities 2
serious injuries 2 minor injuries
– 2005 to 2009 installed wire-rope median barriers and
dropped speed limit to 80 km/h: No fatalities, No
serious injuries, 3 minor injuries.
Source: Marsh F. and Pilgrim M., (2010) Performance of Narrow Median Wire Rope Barrier Installation on Centennial
Highway, New Zealand, accepted for publication Journal of the Australasian College of Road Safety, May.New Zealand - Centennial Highway
Source: New Zealand Transport Agency, WellingtonWire-rope barrier installation
Sweden all road deaths – 2+1 started in 2000
600
500
400
Deaths
300
200
100
0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year24
Frontal Crashes
Frontal Crashes– head onon
– head + run-off-the road
+ run-off-the into
road hard
into
object hard
(tree,object
pole, abutment)
(tree, pole,≈abutment)
30-50% crashes
Frontal crash
or hard object
crash
Real world with
inadequate
enforcement
Design speed
impact limit for
survival –
recoverable injury
(mph)Princess Diana crash 31 August 1997
No barrier
Impact into column!
At the absolute limits of
survivability!
Around
85-90 km/hWhat is a survivable impact?
28m
24m
Hitting a big tree or 20m
column 80 km/h is the 16m
same speed reached
at ground level by a 12m
car driving off the roof
8m
of a 6 storey building
4m
Km/h 80 60 40 20
mph 50 40 30 20 10 0
Murray N.W., When it Comes to the Crunch, The mechanics of Car Collisions,
World Scientific, Singapore, 1994Nilsson’s Power model relationship between speed and casualty risk 50%
Validation – Australia Victoria Speed limits were increased on a number of Victorian regional highways in 1987 from 100 km/h to 110 km/h. This resulted in a 20 per cent annual increase in casualty crashes on those roads. Two years later, the speed limits were returned to 100 km/h, leading to a 20 per cent annual reduction in casualty crashes. Source: Australian Transport Council, National Road Safety Strategy 2011-2020
Validation – Australia
South Australia
InVictoria
July 2003, the speed limit was reduced from 110 km/h
to 100 km/h on about 1,100 kilometres of regional arterial
Speed limits were increased on a number of
roads in South Australia. These were typical arterial roads
Victorian
with regional
typical traffic highways in 1987 from 100
volumes.
km/h to 110 km/h. This resulted in a 20 per cent
annual
The increase
casualty crashes in
on casualty crashes
these roads in the on
two those
years
before
roads.and after the change were compared with
crashes on 8,600 kilometres of road sections where the
speed limit remained at 110 km/h. The evaluation study
Two years later, the speed limits were returned
concluded that a 20 per cent reduction in casualty
to 100onkm/h,
crashes leading
the affected to could
roads a 20 be
perattributed
cent annual
to the
reduction
lowered speed in limit
casualty crashes.
Source: Australian Transport Council, National Road Safety Strategy 2011-2020Validation – Australia
New
SouthSouth Wales
Australia
In early 2000, the
InVictoria
July 2003, the speed
speed limit
limit on
wasa reduced
40 kilometre
fromlength of the
110 km/h
Great
to 100 Western
km/h onHighway
about 1,100 between Bathurst
kilometres and Lithgow
of regional was
arterial
Speed
reduced limits
from 110were
km/h to increased on
100 km/h. This a
part number
of the Great
roads in South Australia. These were typical arterial roads
of
Victorian
Western
with regional
Highway
typical traffic highways
is a typical
volumes.
undividedin 1987 highway
regional from 100and
provides an important freight function though central west
km/h to 110 km/h. This resulted in a 20 per cent
NSW. The road passes through undulating countryside with
annual
The casualty
adjacent increase
farms, forests in
crashes on
and casualty
these crashes
roads
bushland. in the
There wason
two those
years
substantial
before
roads.andconcern
community after the raisedchange
at thewere
time; compared
however, it with
was
crashes on 8,600
demonstrated that kilometres
increases tooftravel
roadtime
sections where the
were minimal and
speed
that thelimitlower
remained
speed atlimit 110 would
km/h. The evaluation
create a safer study
travel
Two yearsthat
concluded
environment for
later,
all aroad
theper speed
20 users. Acent
limits were
reduction
comparison
returned
in casualty
based on before
to after
and 100on
crashes km/h,
the speed
the leading
affectedlimit was to a 20shows
lowered
roads could perattributed
be centhasannual
there been
to thea
26reduction
per cent
lowered in limit
casualty
reduction
speed crashes.
in casualty crashes.
Source: Australian Transport Council, National Road Safety Strategy 2011-202031
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