Future Automotive Trends - European Press Conference THE TIRE COLOGNE 2018 Prof. Dr. Stefan Bratzel - press1
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Future Automotive Trends
Prof. Dr. Stefan Bratzel
Presentation
European Press Conference
THE TIRE COLOGNE 2018
Cologne, November 21th, 2017
Eroding of constitutive elements of the Automotive Industry…
New customer benefits with New customer benefits with
minor technological change major technological changes
Car needs Driver Autonomous
Driving
Car Ownership Car Sharing /
Similar customer benefits with
minor technological changes Ride Sharing
etc.
Internal Com- Electro-
bustion engine Mobility
Incremental Innovation dynamics/ radical/ disruptive
Technologies
2
Main drivers of the paradigm shift in the automotive industry
MEGATRENDS
Connectivity /
Digital Life
Electrification Autonomous
of Drivetrain Driving
Mobility
Services
Source: Konzeptwerkstatt; CAM
3
Market Trends of E-Mobility in selected countries (2017 YTD-09)
Sales of E-Vehicles (PC, LCV), BEV und PHEV 2017-09 YTD (2016-09 YTD)*
400.000 398.000
Jan-Sep 2017 Jan-Sep 2016
350.000
300.000 289.000
250.000
200.000
150.000 140.187
108.403
100.000
43.096 36.849 35.403
50.000 33.386 29.257 26.545
17.074 21.665
6.201 8.053
0
China* USA Norwegen Deutschland UK Frankreich Niederlande
*China (gerundet), inkl. Commercial Vehicles/Busse ; China, USA und Norwegen inkl. Brennstoffzelle; Hersteller in den USA teilweise geschätzt
4
Forecast: Global Sales Electric Vehicles (BEV, PHEV) (2015-2030)
Bis 2030 Wachstum auf
45 40 Mio. E-Autos/Jahr möglich 45%
Millionen
Anteil Elektro (konservativ) Anteil Elektro (optimistisch) (optim. Szenario)
Absatzszenario Elektro (konservativ) Absatzszenario Elektro (optimistisch)
40 40%
Global Electric Vehicles Sales (BEV, PHEV, REEV)
Electric Vehicles Market Share /all Vehicles
35 35%
Bis 2025 Wachstum auf
30 23 Mio. E-Autos/Jahr möglich 30%
(optim. Szenario)
25 25%
20 20%
15 Bis 2020 geringe Dynamik: 15%
Anstieg auf
5 Mio. E-Autos/Jahr möglich
10 10%
(optim. Szenario)
5 5%
0 0%
2015 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Quelle: CAM (Stand: Nov. 2016) 5
Autonomous Driving: Real life tests and visions
© DB
Robo-Taxis …in Phoenix (2017) …in Pittsburgh (2016) ….in Singapur (2016)
Robo-Van in Bavaria (2017) Dedicated Lanes (Vision)
6
Autonomous Driving Scenarios: Step-by-by rollout of Robo-Cabs and Buses
Market Share of highly/fully Scenario "Disruption"
Autonomous Vehicles (%) Fully Autonomous Driving
(Level 4/5)
100
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 2050
Autonomous
Real-life testing/ special Broad deployment in All roads, all weather vehicles are
city areas/lines cities/on highways/ conditions/ cities, rural areas, mandatory by law
End2End transport long distance transportation
50 2022
Source: CAM 2017; Photos: diverse
Robo-Busses in
dedicated city areas;
low speeds
30
2024
Space saving
lanes
20
2021
Highly Autonomous Scenario "Evolution"
driving on highways Fully Autonomous
10 Driving (Level 4/5)
2020 2025 2030 … 2040 … 2050 7
Car as a Service/ Mobility as a Service
ca. 50 Servicetypen 90
83 Vermietung
80 KONZERNEBENE
Carsharing Free-Float, Remote-Dienste
Carsharing Peer-to-Peer, … 80 74
Car2x E-
Kl.*
AlphaRent Parkplatzdienste
Gefahrendaten, 70
…
Logistikservices
Car2x 5er
Verkehrsdaten, …
Ready2park
…
Car2x Audi
Intermodale Dienste
Servicestärke (Indexwert)
Office&Messaging, 60
…
Infotainment
Moovel ParkNow
App Entertainment, (Parkopedia Fahrdienstvermittlung
App Lokale Informationen, Datendienste
50
… Movvit /
Connect.me Here WeGo Charging-Services
Privattaxi, 40 Here WeGo
Carsharing
Ride Sharing, …
35
BMW 32
MyTaxi Connected 31 Sonstiges
VW Car-
30 BMW Labs Net OTA-
26
Logistik Marktplatz, IFTTT 24
Temporärer Schlüssel, …
Here Car-Net Update
Betriebssys
22 21
Audi tem
Here
20
Parkplatz-Bezahlsyst.,
Car2Go
Parkplatz-Finder offstreet, 10 Charge&Fue
Corporate
… Carsharing DriveNow l Card
Notrufservice, 0
Software-Car-Update, Daimler BMW VWVW
Group Tesla GM Ford Geely Nissan Toyota PSA
Car Finder, …
Grafik SE015 Quelle: CAM. Anm.: *Ausgewählte Services als Beispiele für die genannten Stand: Mai 2017
Haupttypen.
8
Car as a Service: Remote-Services
Remote-Services
20
KONZERNEBENE Smart-Home
18 Software Funktionsupdate
EVE/ Digitalstrom
16 DoorBird
Smarth. App
Car Finder
App Regeln
Servicestärke (Indexwert)
14 Car Finder OTA-Updates
Infotainm.
Notrufservice
12 OTA-Update
Sonstiges
Betriebssystem OTA-Updates
VW My Rules
10 Infotainm.
If-this-then-that
8
Audi Notruf & Service Daimler E-Call
6 u.a.
4 Tesla Ecall
2
0
Tesla VWVW
Group BMW Daimler Hyundai GM Nissan Ford
Grafik SE006a Quelle: CAM Stand: Mai 2017
9
Mobility as a Service: Ride Hailing/Sharing
Ride Hailing
24/7
30
KONZERNEBENE Taxi-Portal
Ridesharing
25
Privattaxi
Servicestärke (Indexwert)
UberTaxi
Chauffeursdienst
20
Robotaxi
UberPool
15
DIDI Taxi Hailing
Service
UberPop
10
DidiHitch
MyTaxi
5 UberBlack
DidiExpress
Blacklane MyDriver
0
Uber Didi Chuxing Daimler Lyft Sixt Apple VW GroupVW GM Google
Grafik SE007a Quelle: CAM Stand: Mai 2017
10Imprint
Firma Büroadresse
Dr. Bratzel Center of Automotive Management GmbH & Co. KG (CAM) Center of Automotive Management
Director: Prof. Dr. Stefan Bratzel Langemarckweg 31
Responsible for the contents: Prof. Dr. Stefan Bratzel 51465 Bergisch Gladbach
Authors: Prof. Dr. Stefan Bratzel, Dipl.-Kfm. Ralf Tellermann Germany
Rommerscheider Str. 103 Phone: +49 (0) 22 02 / 2 85 77 - 0
51465 Bergisch Gladbach Fax: +49 (0) 22 02 / 2 85 77 - 28
Germany E-Mail: info@auto-institut.de
Disclaimer and Copyright
All information in this this survey has been carefully checked. It was written by use of scientific methods on the basis of the specified sources
and literature. However, we cannot guarantee that the material contained is complete, correct and absolutely uptodate. CAM rules out any
liability for damages incurred directly or indirectly from the use of this survey.
All rights reserved. All contents (texts, tables, databases, images, graphics, as well as their grouping) in the survey is subject to the protection of
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Copyright © 2017 by Center of Automotive Management
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