FOCUS ON: BRENTFORD - RESEARCH 2019 - Naef Prestige
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RESEARCH FOCUS ON: BRENTFORD 2019
FOCUS ON:
BRENTFORD
Brentford, a riverside former industrial area situated among
London’s expansive green spaces, is set to become one of the
capital’s largest waterside regeneration hubs.
The district occupies a key strategic culminating in the opening of the train line
position for businesses and residents due linking Brentford to Heathrow Airport and
to its historic connectivity via water, road London’s West End, and the 1965 opening
and rail. of the elevated section of the M4 motorway.
Brentford, TW8, was a key interchange As a result, company headquarters in TW8
joining the Grand Junction Canal to the and the surrounding postcodes proliferated
River Thames during the late 1700s and over subsequent years. Now, Brentford
early 1800s, and its connectivity expanded is designated in the draft London Plan,
during the following two centuries, the mayor’s strategic document, as a key
centre with high growth-potential in both
commercial and residential property sectors.
FIGURE 1
Average homes in Brentford sell at lower capital values to neighbouring locations
Year to end Apr 2019 ECONOMIC GROWTH
Brentford sits in the borough of Hounslow,
Acton where gross value added, a measure of
Higher economic growth, is forecast to grow more
than 20% in the coming decade, while
employment is forecast to rise 8%.
Lower TW8 and its neighbouring postcodes
are home to a variety of large company
Chiswick headquarters due to ease of access into
central London and Heathrow. They are
mostly positioned close to the M4, and at
nearby Chiswick Business Park, which is
home to a plethora of oil and gas, media
Brentford
and technology companies. The largest
employers include pharmaceutical company
GSK, oil and gas firms Tullow Oil and Worley
Barnes Parsons, and Qatari media company Fadaat
(fig 2). Other major local employers include
telecommunications giant Sky and computer
game developer Sega.
Isleworth
Hounslow, already a hub for the creative
industries, has been named as one of
London’s first Creative Enterprise Zones.
Richmond upon
This entitles the borough to receive Mayoral
Thames funding in order to foster growth across the
creative sectors.
Significant levels of new office construction
are underway across Chiswick,
Hammersmith and Ealing to accommodate
new businesses moving to the area. Now,
Source: Land Registry more than one million square feet of new
2 RESEARCH KNIGHT FRANKFOCUS ON: BRENTFORD 2019
office space is due to complete between neighbouring towns of Chiswick, Barnes The draft London Plan suggests 2,182
2019 and 2022, as developers anticipate and Richmond upon Thames (fig 1) and homes must be built in Hounslow every
growth in local employment, according to average sales prices in TW8 during the year over the coming decade in order to
Knight Frank Research. past 12 months were the lowest of any meet new demand and clear a backlog of
riverside postcode in west London. undersupply (fig 3). Hounslow Borough
Council’s local plan suggests the current
RESIDENTIAL Total housing stock in Hounslow
pipeline will result in the delivery of
DEVELOPMENT expanded by 991 units in 2017-
approximately 2,400 homes in 2019/20
18, according to official figures.
With a large number of global office and 2020/21, hitting its minimum target,
Housebuilding in the borough needs to
tenants nearby and high levels of before dropping back to 1,700 the
more than double if it is to meet the needs
connectivity with central London and following year and plateauing in that
of the growing population, according
Heathrow, TW8 is becoming a focal point region until 2026/27, settling at around
to the draft London Plan. By 2029, the
for residential development. 80% of its target.
local population is forecast to grow by
Homes in Brentford typically sell at more than 25,000 to 307,000, a 9% rise, Much of the growth in future housing in
relatively lower capital values to the according to Experian. the borough will take place within 1.5km
FIGURE 2
Largest employers in TW8 and surrounding postcodes* Number of employees working on site
Advertising
Infinity Bus & Coach Operators
Media & Stations
Group
Computer Games
Consulates and
Embassies
Education
Facilities
Management
Finance
Food
Media
Oil & Gas
Mail Order &
Shipping
Pharmaceutical
Retail
Transportation
Source: EGi *Includes W4, TW9, TW7, W7, W13, W5, W3, not exhaustive
KNIGHT FRANK RESEARCH 3FOCUS ON: BRENTFORD 2019
of Brentford Station, where approximately gardens and woodland lie within 20 minutes’
Green space accessible within 20
3,350 homes are either under construction, walk of Brentford Station, and more than 750 minutes of Brentford Station
or have consent, and are likely to be hectares are accessible via 20 minutes on
delivered over the next five years or more. public transport, which takes in the historic
Average upper quartile asking rents for a Syon Park and the Royal Botanic Gardens,
two-bedroom flat in the prime market – Kew. Almost 2,500 hectares are accessible in
defined as the top 25% by value – stood at 20 minutes by car, which takes in London’s
£2,450 per calendar month during Q1 2019. Richmond Park – the largest of London’s
Royal Parks. The TW8 postcode also boasts
AMENITY 1.9 miles of river frontage.
With new development often comes London’s top universities are all within
new amenity. Brentford high street is set an hour’s journey of Brentford Station
to be overhauled, with 140,000 square (fig 4 overleaf) and TW8 and its bordering
feet of new retail and leisure space. This postcodes have 13 primary schools and
will include shops, bars and restaurants four secondary schools rated ‘outstanding’ 150 Hectares
split across approximately 40 units. The by the education watchdog Ofsted.
new high street will add to the choice for 750 Hectares
The Greater London Authority and
shoppers that already includes nearby
Hounslow Council are also funding an
Richmond, Hounslow and Chiswick, which
overhaul of former barge sheds straddling 2,500 Hectares
are respectively ranked 9th, 11th and 33rd
the Grand Union Canal to celebrate the
in retail consultancy CACI’s rankings of the
area’s industrial heritage. Other areas of
nation’s Metropolitan retail centres.
interest include the soon-to-be-completed
Source: Knight Frank Research
Brentford is also positioned among swathes Brentford Community Stadium, the 17,250
of green space. Almost 150 hectares (370 capacity home of Championship team
acres) of open green space, including parks, Brentford Football Club.
FIGURE 3
Housing supply, Hounslow
Historic delivery and projections
3,000
PROJECTIONS FROM HOUNSLOW LOCAL PLAN AUTHORITY
MONITORING REPORT, 2016/17
2,500
Annual housing supply target 2018-19 to 2028-29
Source: Draft London Plan
2,000
No. of dwellings
1,500
NET ADDITIONAL DWELLINGS
Annual housing supply target,2014-15 to 2017-18
1,000 Source: Current London Plan
500
0
2017-18
2010-11
2014-15
2015-16
2025-26
2013-14
2016-17
2012-13
2024-25
2023-24
2018-19
2026-27
2009-10
2022-23
2011-12
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
Source: MHCLG, London Borough of Hounslow
KNIGHT FRANK RESEARCH 4FOCUS ON: BRENTFORD 2019
CONNECTIVITY
FIGURE 4
Travel times, Brentford Station to places of interest Brentford has a mainline station with
direct trains to London Waterloo in 30
Journey time in minutes by: minutes. Piccadilly Line station Boston
24 30
MINS Manor sits on the fringe of TW8, with
Car MINS
42
MINS trains running direct to Knightsbridge,
Public transport
45
MINS
King’s Cross St. Pancras and Heathrow.
The M4 motorway runs through
50
MINS Brentford, and easily connects to the
15 M40, a motorway linking London to
Heathrow Airport MINS
52
MINS Oxford and Birmingham, and the A40, a
London Waterloo
major trunk road connecting London to
Bond Street 32
MINS
54
MINS Wales and the West Country (fig 5).
City of London
60
MINS
The Mayor’s transport strategy also
Imperial College includes proposals for a new passenger
service between Hounslow Station
Canary Wharf
60
MINS and Old Oak Common, a key transport
UCL
interchange on both the east to west
London School of Economics and Political Science 60
MINS
Elizabeth Line and proposed High Speed
King’s College London 2 line to Birmingham, the East Midlands,
Leeds and Manchester.
Gatwick Airport
70
MINS
Oxford
Source: TFL, Google
FIGURE 5
Connectivity: Brentford and surrounds
Golf Course
A4020
A406
A4000
South Ealing
Acton Town
A3002 Northfields
South Acton
Gunnersbury
Boston Manor Park A406
M4 Chiswick Park
M4 Gunnersbury
Osterley Park
Kew Bridge
Brentford A4
A4 THE WEST END
BRENTFORD
A316
Osterley Syon Lane
A315 A205 Chiswick
A4
Royal Botanic
Gardens
Kew Gardens
A310
A3005 A307
ISLEWORTH
Royal Mid-Surrey
A3003
Golf Club A316
HOUNSLOW
MORTLAKE
North Sheen
A314 A310 A3004 RICHMOND
Hounslow
5 RESEARCH KNIGHT FRANKFORECASTS “WITH A LARGE NUMBER
Knight Frank forecasts house prices in is well placed to gain from the uplift in OF GLOBAL OFFICE
Greater London will climb 9.2% between
2019 and 2023. Brentford, with its
high-quality new residential and retail
development slated for the next five years,
TENANTS NEARBY
connectivity to central London and beyond, which in turn is likely to attract further AND HIGH LEVELS OF
ample river frontage and green space, new amenity. CONNECTIVITY WITH
CENTRAL LONDON AND
HEATHROW, TW8 IS
BECOMING A FOCAL
1.9 POINT FOR RESIDENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT.”
9% 16%
SALES RENTS
Patrick Gower, Residential Research
patrick.gower@knightfrank.com
If you would like further insight into residential
KNIGHT FRANK HOUSE PRICE GROWTH MILES OF RIVER FRONTAGE, TW8 markets please get in touch.
FORECAST, GREATER LONDON, 2019-2023
£2,450
BRENTFORD
AVERAGE PRIME*
ASKING RENT, TWO
BED FLAT, Q1 2019 NUMBER OF OFSTED RATED ‘OUTSTANDING’
PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SCHOOLS IN TW8
17
AND NEIGHBOURING POSTCODES**
Sources: Knight Frank Research, Rightmove, Ofsted
*Prime is defined as the top 25% of homes by market value **Postcodes TW8, W4, TW9, TW7, W7, W13, W5, W3
Cover image is a CGI of The Brentford Project, courtesy of Ballymore
Knight Frank Research provides strategic
RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH
advice, consultancy services and forecasting
RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH
RESEARCH PRIME LONDON
RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
LAND INDEX
SALES INDEX
to a wide range of clients worldwide including
POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY WEIGHS
LONDON
RESIDENTIAL EASTERN
ON LAND VALUES
Economic uncertainty coupled with the complexities of the planning
system and rising build costs exerted pressure on land values at the turn
developers, investors, funding organisations,
DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES of the year. However, developers seeking to maintain a healthy supply of
land and take advantage of value prompted ultra-competitive bidding for
corporate institutions and the public sector.
a handful of the best sites on the market.
2019
H1 2019 Key Facts Q1 2019 Housebuilders sought to protect their
margins to account for future risks
This trend is being mirrored in prime
central London, where values dipped JUNE 2019 The prime London sales indices are based on repeat valuations of second-hand stock and do not
include new-build property, although units from completed developments are included over time.
Average greenfield development land during Q1 2019, particularly in the South 2% during Q1 and declined 7.5% during the
prices declined 0.6% in the year to East. Consequently, average greenfield year to March.
PRIME CENTRAL LONDON
Q1 2019, the first annual decline in development land prices declined 0.3%,
Demand has been robust for competitively-
two years taking the annual change to -0.6% - the
priced sites in the best locations with rental Prime central London index | 5,571.2 Annual change | -4.9% Quarterly change | -0.7% Monthly change | -0.3%
first annual decline in two years.
income already in place, though in the wider
Urban Brownfield land values climbed
0.8% during Q1 2019, moderating the
annual decline to 0.2%
Prime Central London development
land values declined 2%, taking the
Construction costs, including materials,
plant and labour, have climbed 14% over
the past three years, according to the
ONS. Any further weakening of the pound
could make importing building materials
more costly, which could be compounded
by reported Brexit-related stockpiling.
prime central London land market investors
are grappling with how to accurately price
sites amid so much political uncertainty.
In addition, the risk of planning delays in
central London has grown in the past two
years. Councils and the Greater London
PRIME OUTER LONDON
Prime outer London index | 267.8 Annual change | -4.1% Quarterly change | -0.2% Monthly change | -0.2% All our clients recognise the need for expert
Authority at times have differing priorities
FIGURE 1 FIGURE 2
annual decline to 7.5% However, the most significant factor regarding the proportion and mix of tenures Figure 1 Between March 2009 and the last
independent advice customised to their
Lower pricing volatility in higher price brackets Sales volumes decline by less above £10 million
weighing on greenfield land values is required when negotiating section 106 market peak in August 2015, average price
Average price change by price bracket Year to May 2019 vs year to May 2018, % change
housebuilders’ caution over possible agreements, which adds another layer of growth above £10m in PCL was half of that
conditions in the sales market in three to complexity in an already challenging prime recorded for properties worth less than
five years’ time due to the acute political £2m. As prices adjust to political uncertainty March 2009 to August 2015
central London market.
August 2015 to March 2019
uncertainty in Westminster. and tax changes, this relative difference in
Urban brownfield land values climbed 0.8% 0%
performance has helped underpin demand 120%
As a result, competition has been in Q1, taking the annual change to -0.2%. 100%
-2%
in higher price brackets.
particularly strong for well-connected sites The lack of clarity caused by events in 80% -4%
with strong demographics, often on the Westminster is being offset by the certainty 60% -6%
Figure 2 The number of transactions above
specific needs.
edge of market towns. Volumes dipped provided by the Help to Buy Equity Loan 40%
£10m fell 3.6% in PCL in the year to May 20%
-8%
during the 18 months following the 2016 scheme, which the government announced
compared to the previous 12 months. This 0% -10%
referendum and housebuilders are now in November will be extended to 2023, albeit
compared to a decline of 11.5% between -20% -12%
seeking to replenish their land supply. with regional price caps. Up to £1m to £2m to £5m to £10m+ £1m to £2m to £5m to £10m+
£1m and £2m, underlining the relatively £1m £2m £5m £10m £2m £5m £10m
stronger performance of the higher-value Source: Knight Frank Research Source: Knight Frank Research / LonRes
FIGURE 1 FIGURE 2 market.
Residential development land prices Annual change in average land values
Rebased 100 = Sep 2011 (Urban Brownfield = Dec 2014)
FIGURE 3 FIGURE 4
Figure 3 Average prices above £10m
Prime Central London Urban Brownfield Prime Central London Urban Brownfield Price declines lower in higher price brackets Stock declines as demand rises
declined 2.5% in the year to June and it has Annualised % change
English Greenfield English Greenfield Average annual % change by price bracket
150 been 46 months since prices last peaked in
10.0%
this price bracket. The decrease was 4.8% Up to £1m £1m to £2m £2m to £5m PCL POL New prospective buyers
7.5% £5m to £10m £10m +
between £1m and £2m and it has been 39
PATRICK GOWER 140
5.0% Months since last peak 25
Associate, UK Residential Research months since the last peak, highlighting the
20
130 2.5% longer adjustment period for higher-value 2%
15
properties. 0% 10
Index
0.0%
“Developers seeking to 120 5
-2%
maintain a healthy supply -2.5%
Figure 4 Supply is shrinking in all price
46 0
-4% 48 -5
of land... prompted ultra- 110 -5.0%
brackets as some vendors hesitate due to 47 39 -10
-6%
competitive bidding for a 100
-7.5% political uncertainty. Meanwhile the number 37 -15
-8% -20
handful of the best sites -10.0% of new prospective buyers rose by 21%
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Feb-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
on the market during Q1.” 90 -12.5% in the year to May, showing how active
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 vendors currently benefit from an imbalance
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
@patrickgower 2017 2018 2019 Source: Knight Frank Research Source: Knight Frank Research / Rightmove
between supply and demand.
patrick.gower@knightfrank.com Source: Knight Frank Research Source: Knight Frank Research
London Residential Eastern Opportunities UK Res Dev Land Index Prime London Sales
Development H1 2019 2019 Q1 2019 Index - June 2019 Get in touch
If you’re thinking of buying or selling,
Knight Frank Research Reports are available at KnightFrank.com/Research or would just like some property
advice, please do get in touch.
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