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September 2019 Mapping fertilizer trends in major producing regions Oliver Hatfield, VP Business Development, Argus Media Ltd Market Reporting Fertilizers Consulting Fertilizers illuminating the markets illuminating the markets Copyright © 2019 Argus Media group. All rights reserved Events
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Over 30 experts globally across 7 offices 3 illuminating the markets Copyright © 2019 Argus Media group. All rights reserved.
Analytics key content Key content New Published Methodology: Price forecast -15yr cyclical and reversion forecast updated quarterly -25yr LRMC forecast updated annually S&D analysis for major markets Demand Forecasts derived from an Agricultural Model Assessment of new capacity Project Screening to filter out future capacity Cost analysis Full Cost curve updated quarterly or annually (depending on product) Frequency of Updates 4 Quarterly updates + 1 Annual spotlight Data available on Argus Direct Front End included illuminating the markets Copyright © 2019 Argus Media group. All rights reserved.
Presentation overview Mapping fertilizer trends in major producing regions • Recent developments and short to long term market analysis for: • Potash • Phosphate • Nitrogen • Focusing on regions and countries that move the supply balance Fertilizers Copyright © 2019 Argus Media group. illuminating the markets All rights reserved
• We are still feeling the effects of the upturn in potash • Geography of expansions is focused on Canada, Russia, Belarus and China. prices in 2008! • While there have been some new entrants, generally the supply • New capacity has exceeded new demand since 2009. concentration has remained relatively high. • Creation of spare capacity normally weakens the market. • Oligopoly has meant pricing has been reasonably stable until recently. Fertilizers Copyright © 2019 Argus Media group. illuminating the markets All rights reserved
But we are starting to see the impact of the most recent expansions Short-run MOP balance Recent potash prices ‘000 t 1,500 MOP balance Forecast Surplus 1,327 1,000 892 503 500 301 216 175 160 5 34 0 -233 -500 -845 -1,000 Deficit -1,500 -1,433 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 • 2018 was a strong demand year. • Robust demand underlined a strong pick up in potash prices in 2018. • Q1 2019 was tight, but the balance shifted to equilibrium in mid-year. • But sentiment has softened in 2019. • As we look forwards, we’re moving in to a period of surplus supply. • Our expectations are for weaker market in the short term. • Key potash suppliers are adjusting capacity, looking for equilibrium. Fertilizers Copyright © 2019 Argus Media group. illuminating the markets All rights reserved
Supply Key themes in mid-2019 Nutrien and Mosaic curtail MOP supply as weak demand allows MOP prices to fall; K+S follows Bethune continues to face quality issues, production ramps up, maintenance planned SQM continues to focus on lithium China ramps up pressure in SOP market Fertilizers Copyright © 2019 Argus Media group. illuminating the markets All rights reserved
MOP capacity forecast to 2024: Includes firm and probable MOP projects MOP Capacity Forecast Million t Bolivia 3.0 2.8 2.8 China + Laos 2.7 Jordan 2.5 Spain Turkmenisatan 2.0 Ø 2.2 2.0 1.9 2.0 Canada Greenfield 1.8 Belarus Petrikov Canada Brownfield 1.5 1.4 Russia Greenfield Russia Brownfield 1.0 Capacity represents Argus’ 0.5 assessment of operable capacity, rather than 0.0 design/nameplate capacity. 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 • MOP incremental capacity addition run rate in recent years has been • The biggest changes to capacity in 2019 are Belaruskali adding capacity around 2 million t/y. at Petrikov, and ongoing ramp up of Eurochem new mines. • For the period between 2019 to 2024 this will increase to 2.4 million t/y. • By 2021, we see brownfield expansions in Canada with Mosaic ramping • Major recent projects in recent years were Bethune in Canada and two up Esterhazy K3, while K+S plans to increase production at Bethune (2nd Eurochem projects, which are gradually ramping up. phase). Uralkali is also expanding capacity at Solikamsk 3 • Other small additions have been projects in China, Laos, Turkmenistan, by • By 2023, we should see new capacity from Uralkali Ust-Yayvinksy starting APC in Jordan and YLB in Bolivia up. Nutrien is also planning substantial new brownfield capacity expansion. Fertilizers Copyright © 2019 Argus Media group. illuminating the markets All rights reserved
Global Capacity Forecast: adjusting for mine closures MOP Forecast Net Capacity Million y/t Mine 2018 2019 2020 2024 2.8 2.7 3 2.6 1.9 Sigmundshall -900 0 0 0 2 1.4 1.0 1.1 Ø 1.4 Picadilly -2,000 0 0 0 1 Capacity expansions 0 Boulby -1,040 0 0 0 Closure: Germany (Sigmundshall) -1 Closure: Canada (Picadilly) Closure: UK (Boulby) Vilafruns (Sallent) 0 0 -500 0 -2.1 -2 Closure: Spain (Sallent) Taquari Vassouras 0 0 0 -625 -3 Closure: Brazil (Taquari) Closure: Russia (Berezniki 2) -4 Net capacity Berezniki 2 -200 0 -290 -410 -5 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Total -4,140 0 -790 -1,035 • Substantial closures will to some extent offset the additional capacity outlined previously. • Nutrient announced the closure of it 2 million t/y Picadilly mine in Saskatchewan. However, it will have relatively minor commercial impact. • European closures have greater commercial impact in Spain, Germany and UK. • Note that this is based on committed capacity, it doesn’t capture losses of production due to commercial decisions, e.g. SQM. Fertilizers Copyright © 2019 Argus Media group. illuminating the markets All rights reserved
Significant ramp up in capacity, mostly in Russia mn t EuroChem production ‘18-23 5.5 Usolskiy capacity Uralkali Russia 13,000 12,600 13,200 15,400 600 5.0 Volgakaliy capacity EuroChem Russia 0 400 5,300 7,500 4,900 4.5 Belaruskali Belarus 10,800 12,900 14,400 14,400 1,500 4.0 3.5 Turkmenhimya Turkmenistan 0 300 650 1,300 350 3.0 Uzkimyosanoat Uzbekistan 200 600 600 600 0 2.5 FSU nameplate capacity 24,000 26,800 34,150 39,200 7,350 2.0 FSU production 17,112 24,150 29,197 32,510 5,047 1.5 1.0 FSU op. rate 71% 90% 85% 83% -5% 0.5 FSU demand 2,220 2,026 2,199 2,370 173 0.0 FSU S/D Balance 21,780 22,124 26,998 30,140 4,874 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 • The biggest change in capacity in this region in the next five years is mn t Regional demand Russian Production Eurochem’s potash investment. 35 Others Belarusian Production • Usolskiy first phase produced 467kt in 1H 2019, FY target of 1.1 30 mt. Design capacity likely by 2021, upgrade possible by 2022. 25 • Usolskiy phase II underway, likely 2023. Capacity total = 4mt. 20 • Volgakaliy more complicated. Assuming 2.3 mt by 2023, phase I; phase II to follow. 15 • We expect to see other project activity also from Acron and Slavkaliy, 10 which could be new entrants in this timeframe. 5 • FSU regional exportable surplus increasing from 22mn t to 30 mn t by 0 2028. 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Fertilizers Copyright © 2019 Argus Media group. illuminating the markets All rights reserved
MOP capacity expansion in Canada will magnify the region’s exportable supply surplus North American MOP balance North America MOP Capacity Expansions/Closures Million t/y 35 Million t/y 45.9 46 30 Picadilly Bethune 44 43.5 25 Nutrien Various Esterhazy ramp up 42 Jansen Existing NAm capacity 20 40 38.9 15 38.2 Imports (Outside NAm) 38 37.0 36.7 10 33.9 36.1 35.9 36.3 Exports (Outside NAm) 36 5 9.6 11.3 10.5 11.1 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.5 11.8 Production 34 0 Apparent Demand 32 -5 -10.0 -11.5 -14.2 -13.6 -13.9 -13.9 -14.5 -14.9 -15.8 30 -10 -18.3 -22.1 28 -15 0 -20 -2 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2028 2033 -25 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2028 2033 • Canadian potash capacity is predicted to continue to expand, resulting in an increasing exportable surplus. • Brownfield investment will result in 3 million t/y of capacity being added in the next 5 years. • The biggest increase is predicted to take place beyond 2024, with the emergence of BHP’s greenfield investment. • With some modest increase in regional demand, it means that the exportable surplus of potash capacity should increase by around 50%. Fertilizers Copyright © 2019 Argus Media group. illuminating the markets All rights reserved
Global MOP balance Unprecedented MOP demand growth in 2018 helped absorb capacity additions but from 2019 a supply surplus builds y-o-y until 2024 MOP net balance Mn t Cumulative net change Inoperable • Robust demand growth in 2017 8 Net change Capacity closures and 2018, combined with some Demand growth Capacity expansions 7 closures, led to a significant deficit To surplus 6 and tightening of the market. 5 • We are already seeing that shift in 4 to reverse in 2H 2019. Demand 3 growth this year is expected to be 2 flat while capacity ramps up at 1 various new/recent projects. 0 • As we move forward, we will see a -1 gradual and persistent supply -2 surplus as the ramp up of new -3 project activity, adjusted for -4 closures, exceeds incremental -5 demand growth. • Will new entrant tonnes make To deficit -6 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 pricing more competitive? Fertilizers Copyright © 2019 Argus Media group. illuminating the markets All rights reserved
Phosphate Fertilizers Copyright © 2019 Argus Media group. illuminating the markets All rights reserved
Global phosphates market is becoming increasingly regionalised Europe Canada & dominated by Latin America North African dominated by and Russian DAP US Africa – Indian increasingly subcontinent Brazil still globally targeted by competitive dominated by market but OCP and Saudi Arabia Chinese influence Saudi product in retreat (east and China coast) Fertilizers Copyright © 2019 Argus Media group. illuminating the markets All rights reserved
Chinese phosphates sector undergoing consolidation China becomes net DAP exporter in 2007 But Chinese production is facing come challenges • Zero growth in domestic fertilizer demand by 2020 • Permitting of rock mining tightened • Ongoing environmental control • DAP exporters facing increased competition Capacity additions are slowing due to the chronic DAP oversupply Market consolidation is happening: • Kailin-Wengfu merger was confirmed after a year of rumours • China's 2nd and 3rd largest producers overtaking YTH with 10mn t/yr of DAP/NPK capacity Likely future outcomes: • Vertical integration encouraged • Older, higher cost producers forced out of business • Fewer participants remaining with higher utilisation • Longer term capacity decline likely, but weighted against macro demands of China’s economy Fertilizers Copyright © 2019 Argus Media group. illuminating the markets All rights reserved
China DAP exports continue ‘t Total China DAP exports in January-April 2017-19 600,000 • Weak domestic Chinese 500,000 demand in 1Q19 400,000 Source: GTT • Suppliers look to meet 300,000 Indian DAP demand • China ships 1.3mn t in 200,000 January-June 2019 to India – 100,000 up by 34% 0 2017 2018 2019 January February March April Fertilizers Copyright © 2019 Argus Media group. illuminating the markets All rights reserved
North America – horizontal consolidation Reason: 2005 • US Chem exits market • Phosphate rock reserves depleting and permitting 2006 • Mosaic closes Green Bay plant is difficult • Environmental issues (Phosphogypsum) 2010 • Agrifos switches away from phosphates • Mosaic acquires CF phosphate assets 2013 • PhosChem disbands Result: • Mosaic now owns 70pc of DAP/MAP/MES • May: OCP agrees supply deal with PCS capacity 2014 • December: MissPhos ceases production • Nutrien owns 20pc 2016 • PCS /Agrium merger– Nutrien formed Implications: 2017 • Mosaic idles Plant City (1.8mn t/yr, mainly DAP) • Higher concentration 2019 • New export strategy orientation/MWSPC • Nutrien ceases MAP production at Redwater in Canada, starts to convert unit to AS • DAP Tampa no longer international benchmark Fertilizers Copyright © 2019 Argus Media group. illuminating the markets All rights reserved
Capacity growth driven by Morocco and Saudi Arabia, timing is important OCP, Morocco Egypt DAP/MAP/NPS – JPH 3.4mn t/yr P2O5 Phosacid – NCIC (2019)– 360,000 t/yr P2O5 DAP/MAP/TSP/DCP/MCP – SPH - 1mn t/yr P2O5 Phosacid – Misr (2022)– 500,000 t/yr P2O5 DAP/MAP - PhosBoucraa 330,000 t/yr P2O5 Kazphosphate, Kazakhstan MAP - Taraz (+110,000 t/yr P2O5, 2018) Nutrien, US NPK/DCP – Eurochem ( +250,000 t/yr P2O5 Geismar plant to close end-2018 (-200,000 t/yr P2O5) Kribhco/OCP JV, India DAP/NPK – 1.2mn t/yr - 2022 Nutrien, Canada Redwater MAP plant conversion to AS - 2019 (-345,000 t/yr P2O5) China– Industry restructuring Argus assumed the closure of small inefficient plants Ma’aden, Saudi Arabia Equivalent to -0.7mn t P2O5 PhosAcid DAP/MAP/NPS – Ma’aden 3 - +1.7 mn t/yr P2O5, ~2024 Mosaic, US – Plant City closure, -1mn t PhosAcid : • Lower operating costs and improve system-wide margins JPMC, Indonesia • Reduce CAPEX requirements China Molybdenum, Brazil Pupuk Kaltim, Bontang (200,000 t/yr P2O5, 2019) • Serve own distribution business and other India customers MAP/TSP - Catalao - +200,000 t/yr P2O5, 2020/21 Pupuk Sriwijaya (Pusri), Palembang (200,000 t/yr P2O5, 2020) with low-cost MWSPC JV Base Case assumes plant will not restart Yara, Brazil MAP/TSP - Galvani, Serra do Salitre (+180,000 t/yr P2O5, 2020/21) Fertilizers Copyright © 2019 Argus Media group. illuminating the markets All rights reserved
Nitrogen Fertilizers Copyright © 2019 Argus Media group. illuminating the markets All rights reserved
Global urea capacity forecast, 2018-2033 Argus is tracking 36.0 million t/y of new urea capacity; either at the construction stage or in feasibility Limited investment potential in Global Capacity expansions Europe and the Americas. Instead capital is flowing to the following regions. Nigeria: Cheap gas priced at $1.50- 2.00/MMBtu and cheap building costs are offsetting risk. India: Government is supplying cheap capital to offset imports and support the subsidy domestically. Russia Central Asia: Cheap gas $0.50-3.50/MMBtu is providing a steady stream of projects. SE Asia: Stranded gas in Brunei and Australia is seeking monetisation. Iran and Egypt: Government backed building to support local economy Forecast capacity expansions Possible capacity expansions Speculative capacity expansions Fertilizers Copyright © 2019 Argus Media group. illuminating the markets All rights reserved
Global urea capacity forecast, 2018-2024 mn t/y 7.5 Pro-rated urea capacity forecast Americas Middle East • Basis for inclusion in CIS Africa our firm listing in this SE Asia South Asia timeframe is projects 5.0 which are financed, received all required permits and have begun construction. Projects undergoing feasibility are 2.6 excluded, as are those 2.5 without LT gas supply. 0.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Fertilizers Copyright © 2019 Argus Media group. illuminating the markets All rights reserved
Dramatic expansion of West African urea supply will expand continent’s exportable supply surplus • Three new trains in Nigeria will add close to 6 million t/y of capacity. mn t/y • The Dangote project recently signed a new gas supply contract with Chevron, though 18 still some questions. Production 16 • Eleme project understood to be on track. 14 12 • Regional demand expected to grow, but exportable surplus set to grow substantially. 10 • The NCIC project is not yet firm, but seems likely to progress. Egypt gas situation is greatly 8 improved. 6 4 • Elsewhere, capacity in Algeria has stabilised, operations at around 90% utilization. Exports 2 of 3.2 million t in 2018 likely will be repeated in 2019. 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 mn t 18 2010 2015 2018 2025 ‘18-25 Exportable 16 surplus Egypt 5.1 5.9 6.8 7.3 +0.5 Jul- Production Kima II Egypt 520 14 Algeria 0.0 3.0 3.4 3.4 +0.0 19 12 Nigeria 0.3 0.3 1.7 6.0 +4.3 Jul- Dangote I Nigeria 1,271 10 21 Libya 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 +0.0 8 Jul- African capacity 6.4 10.2 12.8 17.7 +4.9 Dangote II Nigeria 1,271 22 6 Technical surplus 4.0 7.7 10.1 14.3 +4.2 Jul- 4 Eleme II Nigeria 1,400 22 2 African production 5.8 4.8 11.4 15.6 +4.2 Existing African op. rate 91% 47% 89% 88% -1% Expansion 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Possible/Spec. Jul- African S/D Balance 3.4 2.2 8.7 12.2 +3.5 NCIC Egypt 380 23 Fertilizers Copyright © 2019 Argus Media group. illuminating the markets All rights reserved
Barauni has been connected to the Indian gas network • We added the HURL project at Barauni to our list of firm projects, after progress on gas supply. mn t/y 50 Production • This raises our expectations of firm new Indian urea capacity to 4 projects, adding 5 million Capacity: Bangladesh t/y. Indian urea capacity would reach 30 million t/y. 40 • Two other projects are considered speculative at Talcher (coal-gasification) and in 30 Bangladesh. 20 • Collectively, firm project activity would reduce the regional urea import requirement from 10 nearly 13 million tonnes in 2015 to just over 5 million t/y. 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 mn t 2010 2015 2018 2025 ‘18-25 50 India 23.0 24.0 24.0 30.4 +6.4 Ramagundam India Mar-20 1,271 40 Pakistan 4.6 6.3 6.3 6.3 +0.0 Matix Fert. India Oct-20 1,271 Bangladesh 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.5 +0.0 Gorakhpur India Mar-22 1,271 30 Afghanistan 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 +0.0 Barauni India Dec-22 1,271 Other South Asia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0 Total firm 5,082 20 S. Asian capacity 30.7 33.4 33.9 40.3 +6.4 Sindri India Jul-23 1,271 Technical surplus -6.5 -9.4 -6.1 -1.3 +4.9 Talcher India Jul-23 1,271 10 S. Asian production 28.3 30.5 30.6 36.7 +6.1 Existing Polash Bangladesh Jul-24 924 Expansion 0 S. Asian op. rate 92% 91% 90% 91% +1% Total speculative 3,465 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Speculative S. Asian S/D Balance -9.2 -12.8 -9.7 -5.3 +4.4 Total: Firm + Speculative 8,547 Fertilizers Copyright © 2019 Argus Media group. illuminating the markets All rights reserved
Chinese urea output has increased with gas availability Chinese urea capacity is forecast to stabilise between 65-70 million t/y over the medium term Chinese urea plant closures Chinese capacity, 2010-33 1. Capacity closure rate is slowing, but for now mn t/y mn t/y we are still seeing net decrease in capacity. 6 90 5.3 80 2. Operating rates have improved towards 4.5 4.5 70 80%, while higher gas availability means 4 3.8 60 more production over the winter. 50 40 Production 3. Urea production up ~2.0 mn t this year… 2 30 Consumption 20 4. …and we are seeing this increment being Chinese capacity 10 passed into the export market. 0 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Chinese Capacity Expansions Chinese urea production, 2017-19 Chinese urea production, 2017-19 mn t/m mn t/y mn t Name Country Start Capacity 10 55 14 2015 Erdos Wulan In. Mongolia Sep-19 1,200 12 Annualised production 54 Runjin Chem Shanxi Nov-19 300 10 Sanning Hubei Nov-19 795 53 2016 8 Mingshengda Shandong H2 2020 795 5 52 6 XLX Jiangxi Jiangxi H2 2020 525 2017 4 Hongtaixing Heilongjiang H2 2020 300 51 2 2018 Linggu Chem Jinagsu H2 2021 1,680 Monthly Chinese production Zhengyuan Hebei H2 2021 248 0 50 0 Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total firm 6,368 17 17 18 18 19 19 Fertilizers Copyright © 2019 Argus Media group. illuminating the markets All rights reserved
Market Balance: Five-year Outlook Cheaper inputs, a weak RMB and capacity make the market look moderately over-supplied in the year ahead mn t/y • The withdrawal of Chinese exports in 2016 8 Net Change and 2017 contributed to a reduction in Demand Chinese export delta the net change surplus, then a deficit in 7 Iran export delta 2018, which brought a tighter market in 6 Closures that year. Restarts 5 Capacity expansion • We had been expecting a tighter 2019, 4 but a weak RMB and weak energy prices 3 mean that Chinese urea exports have 2 tipped the balance towards surplus. For the period 2020-21, the market looks 1 • to be shifting to surplus with 5 million t/y 0 of new export oriented capacity -1 exceeding new demand growth, so the -2 market likely to weaken. -3 • For 2023-2024, the rate of new capacity -4 additions slows, and we can expect a tighter market. But there’s a risk that some -5 projects move ahead and tip the balance. -6 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Fertilizers Copyright © 2019 Argus Media group. illuminating the markets All rights reserved
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Appendix: Update on Argus fertilizer sector coverage Fertilizers Copyright © 2019 Argus Media group. illuminating the markets All rights reserved
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