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April 2021 Global LPG Markets & Outlook for Africa Market Reporting LPG Consulting LPG illuminating the markets illuminating the markets Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. All rights reserved Events
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1 Global scene-setting: Supply, demand, trade 2 Africa: Market context and outlook 3 Conclusions 4 LPG pricing in Africa LPG Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. 3 illuminating the markets All rights reserved
LPG is primarily consumed in the residential and petrochemical sectors LPG demand by sector, 2019 Residential demand is broadly characterized as heating in cold developed countries and cooking in warm developing countries Residential 34% Non-energy – LPG is a key petrochemical Agricultural feedstock and a component of other oil 40% Industrial products Commercial Industrial/Commercial – use in either Transport industrial processes in off gas-grid Refinery fuel settings, and hotels/restaurants Non-energy Transport – LPG is third most common road transport fuel globally, after gasoline 2% 9% 1% and diesel 7% 7% — Argus Consulting LPG Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. 4 illuminating the markets All rights reserved
Covid-19 had a significant impact on demand patterns over the course of 2020 Petrochemical ▪ Covid-19 impacted the petrochemical sector by affecting feedstock prices and altering downstream demand patterns. In March/April, the price of propane soared relative to that of naphtha. This was due to the relative stable demand for propane and the colla pse of demand for naphtha, but has since stabilised ▪ Demand for co-products which go into packaging and PPE have been in high demand; co-products used heavily in, for example, tires have seen demand fall sharply and recover slowly. Downstream demand is impacting feedstock choice Residential ▪ The immediate impact of Covid-19 on the residential sector was quite chaotic ▪ China’s lockdown in February initially resulted in a fall in residential consumption. This was coupled with supply issues particularly in rural areas as movement between areas was curtailed, impacting deliveries ▪ On the other hand, the lockdown in India caused a well-reported surge of imports as it was coupled with lower refining runs ▪ Overall, demand in most markets exceeded what would have been expected pre-Covid-19 Transport ▪ The large autogas markets have handled the Covid-19 outbreak differently from weeks-long lockdowns in Italy (now being repeated) to no lockdown due to rigorous testing and tracing in South Korea. As a consequence, the impact on these markets has been different ▪ Probably most impacted has been Italy, where autogas demand was down more than 20pc in 2020. A similar impact was seen in Turkey and Poland, but autogas demand actually increased slightly in Ukraine, albeit at a slower rate than in previous years Industrial/ Commercial ▪ The impact of Covid-19 is forecast to be negative for both the industrial and commercial sectors, but of different severities ▪ Consumption of LPG in industry is largely tied to the overall state of the economy and so a global recession will dampen dema nd from this sector. ▪ The commercial sector is forecast to have a more sizeable drop in demand given it is frequently used in off-grid accommodation, cafes, caravans, etc. LPG Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. 5 illuminating the markets All rights reserved
Trade flows continue to evolve as exporters compete for markets Canadian exports in 2020 vs 2019: Key flows into Europe in 2020: 3.8mn t USA (down from 4.9mn t in 2019) 5.3mn t from the US (up from 4.2mn t in 2019) 206kt to Mexico (down from 745kt) 3.4mn t from N. Africa (steady at 3.5mn t) 456kt to Japan (up from 328kt) 1.1mn t from Russia (down from 2.0mn t) 45kt to China (up from 0) 22kt to Korea (up from 0) Middle East exports to Asia in 2020: 11.0mn t to China (down from 12.9mn t in 2019) 14.8mn t to India (up from 13.7mn t) 3.5mn t to Indonesia (up from 2.7mn t) 1.2mn t t to Japan (down from 1.7mn t) US exports to Asia in 2020: 12.5mn t to Japan (up from 9.9mn t in 2019) 3.9mn t t to S. Korea (up from 3.7mn t) 4.2mn t to China (up from 277kt) 2.9mn t to Indonesia (up from 1.9mn t) 634kt to India (up from 422kt) US exports to Latin America in 2020: 5.1mn to Mexico (up from 4.4 mn t in 2019) 1.7mn t to Brazil (up from 1.3mn t) 972kt to Chile (up from 870kt) 1.1kt to Dominican Republic (down from 1.4mn t) — GTT; Argus Consulting LPG Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. 6 illuminating the markets All rights reserved
Looking forward over the next 24 months, the outlook is positive ▸ Gradual recovery in transport, industrial and commercial sectors ▸ Small decline forecast in ▸ Demand for LPG in the petrochemical ▸ Strong growth in supply in 2021, pushing production back sector supportive 2021 from both gas processing to 2019 levels; growth is expected again in 2022 ▸ Whilst refinery production is forecast and refineries ▸ Demand supported by to recover slightly in 2021, it is not ▸ Growing demand, particularly expected to return to pre-Covid levels for Autogas in 2021 and 2022 petrochemical sector ▸ Plenty of product still again ▸ More volumes available for available for export export ▸ Refinery production continues to expand ▸ Commercial, industrial, ▸ Gradual recovery forecast for transport demand to recover over 2021 and 2022 ▸ Demand is primarily from the ▸ Significant new production in 2021 and 2022 – commercial and transport demand over 2021 and 2022 both from refining and gas processing ▸ Growth continues in the residential sector, though per ▸ residential sector, especially in capita levels remain very low in ▸ Increased demand from petchem sector Petrochemical sector continues rapid growth smaller, still developing markets most markets ▸ More volumes available for export ▸ Reliance on imports to ▸ Increased production from increase Nigeria forecast, primarily from gas processing LPG Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. 7 illuminating the markets All rights reserved
The US and Middle East are forecast to remain the drivers of global supply LPG supply by region 2010-2040, mn t Africa: We are generally bearish on new supply coming to market from Africa production Latin America production Russia & FSU production Africa, particularly given investment plans and turmoil at Sonatrach. We Asia production Middle East production do forecast increased supply from Nigeria’s gas production but only a 400 Europe production North America production minimal boost from the commissioning of the Dangote refinery Asia Pacific: The impact of Covid-19 will be felt primarily in 2020 as 350 refiners cut their runs. A number of new refining projects are forecast to come online through the medium-term 300 Europe: In Europe, production is primarily from the refining sector, which is forecast to decline in 2020 and we do not forecast this supply recovering to 2019 levels. A number of closures/conversions announced 250 Latin America: The region’s production fell in 2020 as refiners curtailed operations. Over the medium-term, moderate growth is forecast 200 Middle East: Production increases are forecast to be steady and across a wide range of countries including Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Refinery additions in Iran and Saudi Arabia also add further supply 150 to the region’s balance. North America: US supply has risen despite the market turmoil, defying 100 our expectations. We forecast supply to continue to expand but market and political forces have made us more bearish. Russia and FSU: Continued expansion of the region’s gas processing 50 capacity will sustain increases in LPG production. In 2021, supply from Azerbaijan is forecast to add nearly 1mn t/yr to the region’s output 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 — Argus Consulting LPG Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. 8 illuminating the markets All rights reserved
Asia will remain the dominant consumer LPG demand by region 2010-2040, mn t Africa: The continent is gradually seeing demand shift from the large markets of northern Africa to a diverse set of smaller markets. 2020 saw large Africa consumption Latin America consumption Russia & FSU consumption increases in demand in Nigeria and Kenya. Development of any or many of Asia consumption Middle East consumption 400 these markets has the potential to shift trade and support investment Europe consumption North America consumption Asia Pacific: Residential and petrochemical demand held up in 2020 and just made up for the fall in the industrial, commercial and autogas sectors. Over 350 the medium-term, demand in the residential demand and petrochemical sectors will drive growth in the region. Our forecast includes a number of PDH plants under construction in China with five slated to come online in 2021. 300 Europe: In Europe, the traditional residential and autogas markets are slowly declining though there are still pockets of growth (for example, autogas in 250 Ukraine). The petrochemical market has been the biggest source of demand though this can be variable depending on price signals. PDH plants in Poland and Belgium support demand. 200 Latin America: The Latin American market is forecast to continue growing steadily, supported by sizeable residential demand. We are monitoring 150 developments in Colombia where the government has passed regulations designed to promote the development of an autogas market Middle East: In the Middle East, a large petrochemical sector and cheap local 100 feedstocks supports demand. New projects are forecast in Kuwait and UAE. North America: As energy usage falls, petrochemical demand is increasing 50 gradually as new plants are completed in Canada and the US. Russia and Central Asia: Russia developing a number of petrochemical 0 alongside gas projects, which is already impacting export availability. 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 — Argus Consulting LPG Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. illuminating the markets All rights reserved
1 Global scene-setting: Supply, demand, trade 2 Africa: Market context and outlook 3 Conclusions 4 LPG pricing in Africa LPG Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. 10 illuminating the markets All rights reserved
Africa is really two markets: a small number of large markets in the north… ▪ North Africa includes: Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, North African LPG supply / demand balance, 2010-2040 Libya, and Egypt 14,000 ▪ All of these countries, with the exception of Morocco, produces LPG with Egypt and Algeria 12,000 producing significant volumes ▪ These are also all large consuming markets with 10,000 the highest level of residential demand per capita of any region in the world 8,000 ▪ In Morocco, residential demand stands at 66kg per person ▪ In Egypt, where per capita consumption 6,000 is the lowest, it still stands at over 28kg per person 4,000 ▪ The region is a major source of exports, primarily sending volumes across the Mediterranean into Italy, France, and Turkey 2,000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 North African supply North African demand North African balance — Argus Consulting LPG Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. 11 illuminating the markets All rights reserved
…And a large number of much smaller markets in sub-Saharan African ▪ Key producers in sub-Saharan Africa include Sub-Saharan Africa LPG supply / demand balance, 2010-2040 Nigeria, Angola, South Africa, and Sudan 10,000 ▪ Nearly 60pc of the region’s production is from Nigeria’s gas processing plants 8,000 ▪ The most significant addition to supply is forecast to come from the completion of 6,000 Nigeria’s Dangote refinery and Angola’s gas sector 4,000 ▪ Whilst production is relatively concentrated in a few countries, demand in the region is wide 2,000 spread 0 ▪ Nigeria has the highest level of demand, but represents just over 20pc of the region’s total consumption -2,000 ▪ Whilst our forecast assumes growth in the country’s residential sector over the forecast -4,000 period, we note that there is significant upside 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 to this forecast. This is explored in a later Sub-Saharan Africa supply Sub-Saharan Africa demand Sub-Saharan Africa balance section of this report — Argus Consulting LPG Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. 12 illuminating the markets All rights reserved
Per capita usage looks quite different between the two regions Per capita usage in Africa, 2020 (Est.) ▪ LPG is used in the residential sector much more intensely in some parts of Africa versus other parts ▪ In Morocco, per capita usage exceeds 60kg per person. A number of factors support this high usage: ▪ The fuel is subsidized ▪ There is sufficient infrastructure to import the fuel and distribute it ▪ The population has infrastructure at home to use the fuel ▪ In many other African markets, residential usage is far lower ▪ In Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Uganda, with a combined population of 200mn, per capita usage is less than 1.5kg/person ▪ In a number of markets, the government and private enterprise is supporting the development of the residential market ▪ If these efforts are successful, then there is significant upside to the demand outlook — Argus Consulting LPG Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. 13 illuminating the markets All rights reserved
What holds residential demand for LPG back? High prices • The main alternative to LPG is firewood which can be purchased in small amounts, enough for one day, and requires no special infrastructure to burn. LPG cylinders cost more as consumers need to buy several days worth of gas at once. In some markets you need to buy your own cylinder to fill or pay a deposit to take one • Subsidies are used in some countries to lower the price to consumers and/or make them more stable than the would otherwise be. In Morocco, for example, prices are fixed at 3,333MAD (approximately $370 in March 2021) regardless of the price paid by importers. This can strain national budgets Infrastructure to import • Infrastructure to import LPG is limited in most parts of the continent, but in sub-Saharan Africa in particular • In Morocco, the African market with the most well-developed infrastructure 240,000t of storage supports 2.7mn t of demand annually • The lack of infrastructure impedes market development as it means importers cannot buy opportunistically, they are limited to buying on smaller ships, and the supply chain is less secure if, for example, companies cannot store much stock and a ship is delayed coming in Infrastructure to distribute • Inland distribution is a further problem as the limited infrastructure for LPG tends to be concentrated on the coast and in large cities • In Morocco, there are 30-40 filling plants in operation and facilities are available outside of the largest cities; in Kenya, filling plants are limited to urban areas of Mombasa, Nairobi, Kisumu, and Eldoret Infrastructure in the home • The cost of a gas stove can be prohibitive. One study found the cost of the stove and canister was equal to half the average monthly income in Tanzania, presenting a significant obstacle to take up • In a number of markets, companies are experimenting with providing the canister & stove for a small deposit and then charging consumers for gas usage on an ongoing basis (pay-as-you-go). This helps get around the initial hurdle of needing to buy a canister, fuel, and stove before a household is able to cook one meals. Internet-of-things and mobile payments make this possible LPG Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. 14 illuminating the markets All rights reserved
Further investment in Africa’s LPG storage capacity would support market growth New and under development terminals in Africa There are a number of new terminals recently opened or soon to open in Africa. Further investment is needed to improve the continent’s security of supply and lower prices by allowing importers to buy larger cargos and take advantages of price swings. Nigeria ▪ 2020: 8,400t facility at Apapa port and 8,000t at Ijegun (both Lagos- area) ▪ 2021: 5,000t in Lagos and 6,000t in Delta region Ivory Coast ▪ 2021/2022: Two-phase project adding 12kt of storage in Abidjan South Africa ▪ 2020: 22,600t at Richard’s Bay Note: Project list is not exhaustive LPG Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. 15 illuminating the markets All rights reserved
If market potential is unlocked, demand would be substantial Nigeria demand if per capita increased to average of North Africa, mn t ▪ In 2020, the per capita average of LPG use of North African 14 countries was just over 40kg per person 14 Demand actual ▪ Egypt represents the low at 28.4kg/person and Morocco has 13 Demand forecast under current assumptions the highest per capita usage at 66kg 12 Demand forecast on path to North Africa average ▪ The graph on the left shows Argus’ current demand forecast versus 11 a scenario in which Nigeria’s demand gradually reached the average level of North Africa 10 10 Government has ▪ Based on Nigeria’s high population growth and a near 8-fold 9 announced ambitions for increase of per capita usage, this would lead to a market size 8 market size of 5mn t by approaching 14mn t/yr by 2040 2030 7 ▪ Such a market would require significant investment and alter global 6 trading patters 6 ▪ Investment would be required in import terminals, storage, 5 bottling plants, and cylinders ▪ The country would need to build capacity at the port to 4 3 handle much larger ships including VLGCs 3 3 3 ▪ Government regulation would be required to guarantee 2 things such as cylinder certification 2 2 ▪ Trade patterns would emerge with this market likely being 1 served by North American supply 1 ▪ As security in the region is also an issue, then this would 0 0 0 also need to be addressed before such a market would 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 develop — Argus Consulting LPG Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. 16 illuminating the markets All rights reserved
Where would the supply needed to meet this demand come from? ▸ Continued investment in the ▸ Already major exporter with upstream significant investment in ▸ More volumes available for export terminals and logistics export ▸ Falling demand in local ▸ Traditionally a supplier into market Europe, now expanding routes ▸ Volumes available for export into Asia forecast to increase ▸ Lots of competition for exports: can serve Asia, Africa, Europe, and Latin America ▸ The expected windown of OPEC restraint should see higher levels of production in short- term ▸ Long-term supply growth based on high levels of reserves, low cost of production and a desire to get the molecules out of the ground and on to the market ▸ Increased demand from petchem sector ▸ More volumes available for export LPG Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. 17 illuminating the markets All rights reserved
US exports to Africa have been increasing LPG flows from the US into Africa, 2019 to 2020 Some falls in export volumes as well: ▸ Togo ▸ Egypt US exports to Morocco: ▸ Ghana Increased from 705kt to 744kt US exports to Senegal: Increased from 32kt to 175kt US exports to Nigeria: Increased from 181kt to 358kt US exports to Tanzania: Increased from 0kt to 340kt US exports to Kenya: Increased from 37kt to 177kt US exports to South Africa: Increased from 139kt to 309kt Note: GTT; Argus Consulting LPG Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. 18 illuminating the markets All rights reserved
1 Global scene-setting: Supply, demand, trade 2 Africa: Market context and outlook 3 Conclusions 4 LPG pricing in Africa LPG Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. 19 illuminating the markets All rights reserved
Looking forward Outlook ▪ Factors to watch ▪ Demand in 2020 faced a variety of differing forces: ▪ Plans to unlock the factors along the supply chain which hold back ▪ Demand for LPG fell in the industrial, commercial, and growth: transport sectors as countries dealt with months of lockdowns ▪ Import terminals and lowered economic activity ▪ Bottling plants ▪ Petrochemical demand was higher in a number of countries, ▪ Distribution networks despite LPG’s relative high price ▪ In-home hardware ▪ Residential demand expanded across the globe ▪ Developments in potential sources of supply ▪ Production in the US is quite responsive to market prices and ▪ Markets in Africa continued to grow through this period of tumult sentiment with Nigeria topping 1mn t of demand for the first time ▪ Decisions by OPEC/OPEC+ to restrain production ▪ Investment appetite in Russia ▪ A number of infrastructure projects have been commissioned or will ▪ Developments within Africa may also widen the sources of soon be supply ▪ If government and private-sector plans to foster broader, deeper ▪ Consumers competing for these sources are numerous but some of penetration of LPG come to pass, market growth would be the most important are China's PDH and ethylene plants; in Europe, significant the electrification of the transport network could free volumes currently being consumed there ▪ This market growth would support further investment in infrastructure LPG Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. 20 illuminating the markets All rights reserved
1 Global scene-setting: Supply, demand, trade 2 Africa: Market context and outlook 3 Conclusions 4 LPG pricing in Africa LPG Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. 21 illuminating the markets All rights reserved
LPG trade - Africa sits amid the key flows Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. All rights reserved.
African LPG prices • Combining source market prices and freight • Intended to reflect real-world costs • Forerunners to trade-based indices Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. All rights reserved.
Africa LPG indexes – sources and destinations ARA Houston Ras Tanura Argus West Africa Propane & Butane Indexes, Lagos Argus East Africa LPG Index, Mombasa Argus South Africa LPG Index, Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. All rights reserved. Richards Bay
Final thoughts • LPG consumption is growing strongly in Africa, bringing health, environmental and economic benefits. Fair and transparent pricing is key to sustaining this trend. • Traditional pricing structures based on the Middle East are a reasonable import parity proxy, but nowadays product is coming from further afield – particularly the US. • Argus is keen to develop trade-based indexes for Africa’s regional markets – please contact us if you wish to discuss in more detail. Copyright © 2021 Argus Media group. All rights reserved.
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