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FlightGlobal.com May 2021
How Max cuts
hurt Boeing
backlog
Feeling Making throwaway
aircraft affordable p32
supersonic
Will Overture be in tune with demand? p52
Hydrogen switch for
Fresson’s Islander p34
9
£4.99
770015 371327
Big worries Warning sign
We assess A380 Why NOTAM
outlook as last burden can
delivery looms baffle pilots
p14 p22
0 5
Comment
Prospects receding
Future
dreaming
Once thought of
as the future of air
travel, the A380 is
already heading
into retirement, but
aviation is keenly
focused on the
next big thing
Airbus
I
t has been a rapid rise and fall for on who you ask. As we report else- Hydrogen is not without its
the Airbus A380, which not so where in this issue, there are those issues, of course, but nonethe-
long ago was being hailed as the banking on supersonic speeds be- less it appears more feasible as a
future of long-haul air travel. ing the answer. power source for large transport
The superjumbo would be, The likes of Aerion and Boom Su- aircraft than batteries do at pres-
forecasts said, the perfect tool for personic view the ability to shave ent, even allowing for improving
airlines operating into mega-hubs significant time from journeys as a energy densities.
such as Dubai that were beginning unique selling point. However, there are others who
to spring up. While projects are likely to be see hydrogen through a differ-
But the planners at Airbus failed technologically feasible, to be able ent filter. They argue that so-
to take into consideration the to sell these new aircraft in signif- called sub-regional aircraft – the
efficiency gains available from icant volumes their manufacturers Britten-Norman Islander, among
a new generation of widebody will have to ensure that supersonic others – can be given fresh impetus
twinjets that allowed operators to flight is not merely the domain of if a fuel source can be found that is
open up previously uneconomical the ultra-rich. both cheap and non-polluting.
point-to-point routes. Although it would be an enor- In theory, such aircraft could
While the A380 limped on with mous stretch to imagine an Easy- link towns or cities current-
flagging sales – ultimately forcing Jet-operated supersonic jet, they ly under-served by any mode of
Airbus to axe the programme – it must be sufficiently cost-effective transport, or provide a more sus-
was assumed that the in-service to appeal to an audience wider tainable lifeline to island communi-
fleet would continue flying for than a handful of niche operators. ties (who may also be able to pro-
decades to come. Moreover, as aviation’s envi- duce their own hydrogen through
Then Covid-19 intervened and air- ronmental performance faces use of two abundant natural re-
lines reassessed their attachment ever-closer scrutiny, those super- sources: wind and waves).
to the double-decker. Outside the sonic jets will have to be as green At this early stage of develop-
fleets of a handful of operators – as possible to avoid any backlash. ment it is hard to say who will
British Airways, Emirates and Qan- Elsewhere, though, the prospect succeed, but what is clear is that
tas, for example – the A380 is unlike- of a cleaner air transport industry is aviation is on the cusp of a radical
ly to make much of a reappearance the raison d’etre of other develop- change where new technologies
in the post-pandemic world. ments. For many of these, hydro- could prove more disruptive than
What, then, is the future of air gen is seen as the fuel that enables ever the A380 was. ◗
transport? Clearly, that depends that sustainable future. See p14, p52
May 2021 Flight International 3
In focus
How pandemic reversed The learning power of PISA 18 Cost war of attrition 32
decade of growth 6 ICAO targets data overload 22 Fresson takes new direction 34
Mixed times for 737 Max 8 Canada backs Airbus tanker 24 Airbus warms to cryogenics 36
Electric Beaver charges on 10 US Army’s FLRAA plans 25 BA zeroes in on hydrogen 38
Taiwan feels the pressure 12 United sets diversity target 26 Opinion: A powerful change 39
Demise of double-decker 14 Renewed authority at CAA 28 View from the cockpit 41
52
Boom time Virgin Galactic’s delta-wing
civil jet will be capable of Mach 3.0
34
Boom Supersonic
Regulars Comment 3 Best of the rest 42 Straight & Level 74 Letters 76 Jobs 81 Women in aviation 82
4 Flight International May 2021
Contents
In depth
Open for business 46 Upwardly mobile 58 Sustainable strategy 65
Covid-19 has buffeted private The prospect of eVTOL aircraft The business aviation sector
aviation more lightly than its carrying passengers above is embracing alternative fuels
commercial cousin crowded cities is drawing near King Lear’s long reign 70
Upping the pace 52 In pole position 62 Looking back at Learjet’s
Are we ready for the return of Can the F1 factor give start-up six decades of style, speed
supersonic passenger services? Vertical Aerospace an edge? and sexiness
58
65 70
May 2021 Flight International 5
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How Covid-19 pandemic
reversed decade of growth
The collapse in demand for air travel caused by crisis
AirTeamImages
has inevitably hit the orderbooks of Airbus and Boeing
Jon Hemmerdinger Tampa
David Kaminski-Morrow London
But despite the differences in
presentation, the impact of the
pandemic is clear.
Airbus’s order total had risen
20,315
A
nalysis of the big two each year by an average of over Total orders for Airbus – a drop of 83
airframers’ backlog data 1,000 aircraft from the end of March since March 2020: 210 cancellations
over the year since the 2011 to the end of March 2020, the partly offset by 127 new orders
onset of the air trans- point at which the pandemic start-
port crisis shows overall orders ed to generate serious disruption
declined during the period – an to international air travel. from the A320neo, whose order
extraordinary contrast to their But its latest backlog data shows level fell by 98.
strong annual performances over that in the subsequent 12 months, The A220-300 also generated a
the previous decade. to the end of March 2021, order ac- small net gain in orders over the
Airbus’s total orders fell by 83, to tivity not only stopped its upward 12-month period.
20,315, while Boeing – which spent surge but actually reversed, with Analysis of the main cancellations
until November last year also wres- the overall order total slipping from shows 88 are attributed to Scandi-
tling with the grounding of the 737 20,398 to 20,315. navian budget carrier Norwegian, 17
Max – saw its total orders fall by to lessor BOC Aviation, 10 to each
around 800 aircraft. Reduced demand of AirAsia X and Gulf Air, and six for
It is tricky to make a perfect This reduction of 83 aircraft re- Turkish Airlines, while another 56
like-for-like comparison between sulted from 210 cancellations be- were classified as undisclosed.
the two manufacturers due to dif- ing only being partly offset by 127 Chinese operators and lessors
ferences in the way they present additional orders. had a strong presence among cus-
their order and delivery data on a Total long-haul aircraft orders tomers whose orders increased
monthly basis. For Boeing we have were down by 26 – comprising over the year.
instead relied on its stock market 17 A350s and nine A330s – while Eleven Chinese carriers – among
filings, the most recent of which those for short-haul jets fell by 57. them Air China, China Eastern
provides only approximate totals. But the performance of individ- Airlines, China Southern Airlines,
It also only includes figures for its ual models in the short-haul range Qingdao Airlines, Shenzhen Air-
in-production aircraft, leading to varied. The A321neo, which has lines and Sichuan Airlines – plus
an overall order total lower than proven a popular variant, increased lessors Bocomm, CMB Leasing
that of its rival, even though it has its net total by 46 aircraft – possi- and ICBC Leasing, are all listed
been in existence much longer. bly aided by upward conversions with higher order figures.
6 Flight International May 2021
Airframers Backlogs
Meanwhile, on the other side of Of the 1,200 jets removed from
the Atlantic, Boeing’s total aircraft Boeing’s backlog over the past year,
orders tumbled by roughly 800 more than 1,000 were for 737 Max
jets over the last 12 months. aircraft, data shows: about 640 can-
The backlog losses reflect a pile cellations and more than 400 nega-
of cancellations only partly offset tive accounting adjustments.
by far fewer orders. Customers across the spectrum
At the end of March, Boeing’s have axed deals for the narrow-
total orders stood at about 17,000 body over the last 12 months.
aircraft, including 4,054 in its Major carriers like Air Canada,
backlog. That is down from the Copa Airlines, Virgin Australia and
17,835 total orders, including 5,049 WestJet scrubbed orders. More
in the backlog, that Boeing held at recently, Turkish Airlines cancelled
the end of March 2020, company 50 Max orders, converting 40 of
data shows. them into purchase options. Un-
certainty about Norwegian’s future
Uncompleted sales led Boeing to shift a portion of its
The decline over the past 12 months 92 Max orders into the ASC-606
reflects the removal of firm orders accounting category.
for about 1,200 jets, including 670 Lessors including AerCap, Air
cancellations and another 550 air- Lease, Aviation Capital Group, Avo-
craft that Boeing shifted from its lon, BOC Aviation, CDB Aviation,
backlog into an accounting bucket GE Capital Aviation Services and
reserved for sales that it suspects SMBC Aviation Capital have also
will not close. cancelled deals for the Max.
Boeing partly offset those loss-
1,200
es with new orders for 417 aircraft
during the last year.
The backlog slide contrasts sharp-
Robust cargo demand has driven ly with Boeing’s stream of sales
continued interest in 747-8F successes in the decade preceding
the March 2019 737 Max grounding. Jets removed from Boeing’s backlog
Total orders nearly doubled from over the past year – more than 1,000
9,597 at the end of 2008, to 18,229 of these represented by the 737 Max
The airframer has been man- at the end of 2018, equating to an
aging the impact of the pandem- average annual gain of some 860
ic by cutting its production rates orders, regulatory filings show. Boeing’s widebody orders have
and working to negotiate deferred Meanwhile, Boeing continued also suffered amid a pandemic that
deliveries to customers – and chief ramping up production of the has had an outsized impact on in-
executive Guillaume Faury has 737 Max, hitting a high of 52 jets ternational long-haul travel.
pointed out that the company has monthly in 2018. Widebodies accounted for about
experienced only a “low number” All that changed when an Ethi- 140 of the 1,200 aircraft erased
of cancellations. opian Airlines 737 Max crashed from Boeing’s books since March
Airbus’s total order figure of shortly after take-off in March 2019 2020, data shows. Of those, about
20,315 at the end of March 2021 – the second accident involving 30 are cancellations and the bal-
was just over double the level of the type. The regulatory grounding ance are accounting adjustments.
10,061 recorded 10 years earlier in that ensued would last 20 months, The company has, however, off-
March 2011. until November 2020. set a large part of those losses with
new orders.
Boeing’s net orders for the 767
increased by 36 aircraft over the
last year, likewise, net 747 orders
increased by five aircraft dur-
ing the last 12 months. The gains
on both programmes come amid
comparatively strong demand for
cargo jets.
The 777 programme slipped
by 67 and the 787 declined by 47
aircraft across the same period,
data shows.
The 787 has suffered the addi-
tional pressure of quality issues
Airbus
that became known in 2020 and
which led Boeing to halt Dream-
Norwegian was responsible for
liner deliveries between November
88 of Airbus’s cancellations
2020 and March this year. ◗
May 2021 Flight International 7
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Two steps forward,
one step Max
Boeing’s rehabilitation of its troubled
narrowbody is gathering pace, but the
process has not been without setbacks
And in another example of how
Graham Dunn London the 737 Max’s troubles are not
yet completely behind it, Boe-
ing in April recommended that
A
fter a traumatic two years some airlines remove a subset of
for Boeing and its 737 the twinjet from service pending
Max programme, some of maintenance related to an un-
the airframer’s top cus- specified back-up power control
tomers have signed up for hun- system (see below).
dreds more of the narrowbodies, The news came as Boeing at-
delivering key endorsements as tempted to shift the narrative away
US carriers have been at the forefront
the type returns to service. from the jet’s earlier woes, caused
of returning the Max to service
Notably, Southwest Airlines’ by a pair of fatal crashes.
decision, disclosed on 29 March,
to replace 737-700s with 100 737 Gol followers
Max 7s came after follow-on Max A string of airlines have now regulators there, in late January,
orders from key customers Ryanair returned the Max to service, fol- cleared the type. TUI Airlines be-
and United Airlines. lowing Brazilian carrier Gol, which came the first European carrier to
But a further batch of Max order in December 2020 became the first restore Max service, in February,
cancellations in March – including operator to restore commercial followed in March by Icelandair,
Turkish Airlines (50) and lessors flights with the type. Czech carrier Smartwings and LOT
CDB Aviation (16) and China Globally, about 170 Max are back Polish Airlines.
Aircraft Leasing (26) – again high- in the skies, with airlines holding Romanian budget carrier Blue
lights the faltering nature of the another roughly 300 in storage, Air, meanwhile, became a new Max
recovery for both the jet itself and Cirium data shows. customer at the start of April after
the wider industry. While operators in North and taking delivery of the first of 10 of
In all, Boeing took in 196 orders in Latin America have led the charge, the type from Air Lease.
March, offset by 156 cancellations – European carriers too are re- Ryanair too will shortly become
the vast majority for the Max. turning the Max to service, after a new Max operator in Europe,
Deliveries stay steady, but fresh safety issue drives more jets into storage
Jon Hemmerdinger Tampa In October 2020, the US production lines in recent
airframer said the company months, but more than 80
aimed to deliver about half examples completed first flight
Boeing has delivered almost of those stored aircraft before the during the grounding period,
90 737 Max since US regulators end of 2021, and the “majority” of making them part of the
lifted the type’s grounding the remainder in 2022. 450-strong inventory.
last November, putting the The US Federal Aviation US carriers Alaska Airlines,
airframer on track reach its goal Administration lifted the American Airlines, Southwest
of delivering half those jets by grounding in November 2020, Airlines and United Airlines have
year-end. with other regulators following in received the vast majority of
Production of the 737 Max subsequent months. recent Max deliveries – 67 jets,
continued during much of Boeing resumed 737 Max according to Cirium data.
the period that the type was deliveries in December, handing Boeing has also, since late last
grounded, resulting in a total of over 27 of the jets that month. year, delivered Max aircraft to
around 450 undelivered aircraft Another 62 have followed this airlines in Canada, Latin America
by the time the US regulator had year, up to 20 April. and Europe, data shows.
re-certificated the narrowbody Some of those aircraft But all the 89 Max that Boeing
for its operational return. might have rolled off Boeing’s has delivered since December are
8 Flight International May 2021
737 Max Return
Neither has there been apparent
movement by two European cus-
tomers to firm Max order commit-
ments made during the grounding.
Those orders include Air Astana’s
deal to acquire 30 Max for its low-
cost unit, FlyArystan, and IAG’s
headline-stealing letter of intent,
revealed during the 2019 Paris air
show, to buy 200 Max.
Recovery has also been slower
in the Asia-Pacific region, home to
more than 20 Max operators before
the grounding.
In late February, Australia be-
came the first country in the region
to lift the Max’s grounding. Days
later, New Zealand followed suit,
though it stopped short of a blan-
ket approval.
Next steps
While no Australian carrier current-
AirTeamImages
ly operates 737 Max, two foreign
carriers – Singapore Airlines (SIA)
unit SilkAir and Fiji Airways – had
previously flown the type into the
country. Fiji lifted its grounding in
100
early April.
having been on the verge of taking Though Singapore authorities
its first Max when the aircraft was have not cleared the Max for com-
grounded in March 2019. mercial flights, SIA is preparing
The Irish carrier expects to for the type’s return. The carrier –
operate 16 737 Max 8-200s – a Order for 737 Max 7s placed by which has been integrating region-
high-density variant of the Max 8 – Southwest Airlines in March al unit SilkAir into its mainline op-
by the peak summer travel season. eration – in March began shuttling
That goal moved closer when the its six 737 Max back home from
European regulator in early April Aviation Administration lifted the storage in Australia, as a cabin
approved the variant. grounding, Ryanair firmed orders retrofit programme gets under way
Ryanair chief executive Michael for 75 Max, bringing its total com- for the type.
O’Leary has been a vocal propo- mitment to 210. Crucially, the Max remains
nent of the narrowbody: in Decem- Boeing may have secured the grounded in China, which was the
ber, shortly after the US Federal Max’s place with Ryanair, but the first country to ban flights of the
troubled state of the wider air- narrowbody. China’s civil aviation
line sector has raised uncertainty regulator has said that it has been
about its future with other Euro- discussing with Boeing a plan to
pean carriers. restore 737 Max services, but has
Chief among those is Norwegian not presented a timeline for any
in storage with airline customers, which, prior to the grounding, op- such move.
Cirium shows. erated 18 of the jets – more than China is a huge market for the
While many of those are parked any other European airline. But single-aisle: at the time of the
owing to current low levels of Norwegian has since embarked Max grounding, 12 Chinese oper-
demand, even where jets had on a major restructuring, ditching ators had nearly 100 of the jets in
been returned to service – for long-haul operations. It does not service, with another 200 orders,
example, those aircraft operated plan to use Max aircraft as part of Cirium data shows.
by American, Southwest and its initial operational ramp-up and Aside from China, two other
United – a subsequent safety has not commented on plans be- notable hold-outs in Asia are India
issue identified in early April yond the summer. and Indonesia, although the former
related to a back-up power Last year, the carrier said it was has now permitted overflights with
control unit has seen the aircraft cancelling 92 Max orders. Boeing the type. Globally, more than 160
pulled from flights for inspection has not actually removed those out of 195 civil aviation regulators
and potential modification. from its books but has shifted an have opened their airspace to the
The problem relates to 737 Max undisclosed number into a special Max, Boeing says.
that have been delivered recently, accounting bucket – known as
rather than those shipped before ASC-606 – that is reserved for Additional reporting by
the grounding. sales over which there is signifi- Alfred Chua in Singapore and
cant uncertainty. Jon Hemmerdinger in Tampa
May 2021 Flight International 9
Programme Propulsion
Electric Beaver charges ahead
Partners Harbour Air and Magnix team up with Swiss battery
developer H55 to advance DHC-2 electrification programme
Jon Hemmerdinger Tampa
S
wiss battery company
H55 has been recruited by
Harbour Air and Magnix in
Harbour Air/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
an effort to develop and cer-
tificate an all-electric De Havilland
Canada DHC-2 Beaver seaplane.
The project is already well under
way, with Harbour Air, a Canadian
commuter airline based near Van-
couver, having flown a demonstra-
tor all-electric Beaver for the first
time in late 2019. That aircraft is
Demonstrator made its first flight
powered by Magnix’s Magni500
near Vancouver in December 2019
electric propulsion system.
Now, Harbour Air and Magnix,
which has offices in Seattle, have
enlisted H55 – a spin-off from the “We have been attracted by Har- Harbour Air sidelined one of its
Solar Impulse project – to provide a bour Air and Magnix’s vision, pio- Beaver seaplanes several years ago
battery system and other technolo- neering spirit and commitment to for the project. The six-passenger
gies for their electric Beaver. make aviation clean,” Borschberg aircraft’s Pratt & Whitney P-985
The trio intend to “certify the says. “The path to electric aviation Wasp Junior piston engine was re-
world’s first electric Beaver com- is complicated. But, at the same placed with the 750hp Magni500.
muter airplane through a sup- time, by joining forces our com- The Magnix-powered Beaver
plemental type certificate pro- bined experience will lead to quick- made its first flight on 10 Decem-
gramme”, they said on 20 April. er certification.” ber 2019, lifting off from the Fraser
“The companies will collaborate H55 has developed a “single- River near Vancouver. That event
together with Transport Canada engine battery pack system” de- was, according to Harbour, the
to certify the installation of the signed to power small aircraft. first flight of an all-electric com-
Magnix electric propulsion unit The pack has energy capacity of mercial aircraft.
and the H55 enhanced battery sys- 50kWh, produces 67hp (100kW) The team has since conducted
tem, transforming Harbour Air’s of maximum power, has 90min “additional flight tests to measure
seaplanes into an all-electric com- endurance and can be charged in and collect data on cruise perfor-
mercial fleet.” 1h, the company says. mance and take-off thrust efficien-
It is currently unclear whether the cy, electro-magnetic interference,
addition of H55 to the team means Bristell fashion battery management software log-
changes to the demonstrator’s H55 has integrated a battery system ic, noise levels and more”.
systems or configuration and the into a two-seat Bristell B23 Energic, As configured early last year,
development timeline. The compa- which made its first flight in 2019. the demonstrator Beaver carried
nies did not respond to a request It aims to acquire European Union lithium batteries with a power-to-
for more information. Aviation Safety Agency design and weight ratio of about 135Wh/kg – a
In January 2020, Harbour Air production certifications in 2021, relatively low-power-density sys-
chief executive Greg McDougall and to gain a type certificate for its tem, McDougall told FlightGlobal in
said he hoped to certificate the battery system by mid-2022. January 2020.
electric Beaver within two years, H55 does not specify what sys- He said better lithium batteries
possibly less. But he suggested it tem it is planning to develop for could, as of that time, generate up to
might need more advanced batter- the Beaver, but it will have to be 235Wh/kg. But, he added, 400Wh/
ies to be commercially viable. larger than that on the B23, due kg cells would likely be available by
H55 was launched in 2017 by a to the power requirements of the the time it starts commercial flights
three-person team that includes bigger aircraft. with an electric aircraft.
Andre Borschberg, who, along “Magnix, Harbour Air and H55 Magnix is involved in a sepa-
with Bertrand Piccard, helped will work on design optimisation rate project, alongside Spanish
found Solar Impulse, the organisa- for the electric propulsion unit, en- firm Dante Aeronautics, to install
tion behind the solar-powered air- ergy storage system and related a Magni500 in a Cessna Caravan
craft project. Borschberg is H55’s aircraft systems based on ongoing amphibian operated by Australia’s
executive chairman. flight testing,” the companies say. Sydney Seaplanes. ◗
10 Flight International May 2021Defence Tension
Taiwan feels the pressure
Fasttailwind/Shutterstock
Greg Waldron Singapore
Four J-10s were among group of
25 which neared island on 12 April
Taipei is accustomed to aerial incursions by Chinese military
assets, but increased formations are now probing its defences
Greg Waldron Singapore Beijing mounted an even bigger Chinese aircraft, instead of images
sortie on 12 April, with four H-6Ks, taken during intercepts.
14 J-16s, four J-10s, one KJ-500 “Assuming the Republic of Chi-
I
ncursions by Chinese military and two anti-submarine Y-8s. How- na Air Force [RoCAF] has indeed
assets into Taiwan’s air defence ever, this mission did not repeat stopped intercepting most of these
identification zone are nothing the dogleg route around Taiwan’s flights, the decision is smart,” he
new, as Beijing continues its ef- southern tip. says. “The RoCAF is never going
forts to establish a new air power J Michael Cole, Taipei-based sen- to be on the winning end of this
paradigm in the region. ior fellow with the Global Taiwan readiness competition, and trying
Taipei recorded 380 such inci- Institute in Washington DC, says to keep up with PLA flights would
dents in 2020: the highest number that China rapidly increased sor- accomplish little besides the optics
since 1996. But if that was a chal- ties in January 2020, following the of defending the homeland – that
lenging year, the recent appearance re-election of Taiwanese president is, until they can’t fly anymore be-
of two large Chinese formations Tsai Ing-wen. cause their pilots are exhausted,
means 2021 looks set to surpass it. “This isn’t solely a reaction by and their aircraft are grounded.”
Taiwan’s defence ministry details Beijing to visits by senior US offi- Apart from attempting to cow
every incursion, on Twitter, show- cials to Taiwan, but also a demon- Taiwan’s population, the flights also
ing the People’s Liberation Army stration to domestic constituents offer a valuable opportunity for Chi-
Air Force and People’s Liberation that the Chinese Communist Par- nese pilots to test their skills over
Army Navy aircraft involved, the ty is doing something, and that it, water and in a littoral environment.
course they flew, and the actions not Taipei, gets to set the tone,” Beijing’s bombastic Global Times
taken by its military. This invariably he says. “No doubt this stems in newspaper has a more menacing
involves tasking a combat air patrol part out of frustration that Beijing’s take. In a 13 April story about the
– generally with Lockheed Martin policy of ‘peaceful unification’ has 25-aircraft mission it stated that the
F-16s – issuing radio warnings, and been an abject failure.” exercises are nothing short of a re-
having “missile systems deployed hearsal for war – a warning to “Tai-
to monitor the activity”. Psychological warfare wan secessionists” and the USA.
On 26 March, 20 Chinese com- He adds that the flights can be Despite recent warnings from US
bat aircraft flew a southeasterly seen as a form of “psychological admirals about China’s threat to Tai-
course from the mainland, with warfare”, calibrated to intimidate wan, war does not seem imminent,
several continuing well beyond Tai- Taiwan’s population. Other ana- and mustering the massive forces
wan’s southern tip before taking lysts agree that making such flights necessary for an amphibious inva-
a north-easterly route, effectively seem commonplace could drive a sion would take time and attract
bracketing the island. sense of acceptance, or even com- attention from the USA and Japan.
The sortie involved four Xian placency, for example through Tai- Nonetheless, Taiwan defence ana-
H-6K bombers, 10 Shenyang J-16 pei deciding against having fight- lyst Kitsch Liao sees the recent sig-
and two Chengdu J-10 fighters, ers meet every interloper. nificant incursions as major exercis-
supported by a Shaanxi KJ-500 Roderick Lee, research director es that raise the stakes, create more
airborne early warning and control at the China Aerospace Studies opportunities for miscalculation,
aircraft, two Shaanxi Y-8 anti-sub- Institute, points out that in 2020 and offer no clear path for de-esca-
marine warfare aircraft and a single Taiwan’s defence ministry start- lation. “This is going to be increas-
Y-8 reconnaissance platform. ed exclusively using file photos of ingly dangerous,” he says. ◗
12 Flight International May 2021Visit FlightGlobal Premium for all the latest aviation news and insight FlightGlobal.com
Demise of the double-decker
As delivery of the final A380 draws near, the question
is now how long the superjumbo will remain in service
Lewis Harper London as new-generation widebodies That said, formal decisions to
provided network flexibility and remove the type from fleets have
superior economics. actually been few and far between
A
lready considered on Exacerbating that fundamental is- since the Covid-19 crisis began.
borrowed time at many sue, reduced air travel demand dur- Air France is the only carrier to
airlines before the glob- ing the recovery from the Covid-19 have explicitly retired its A380s
al pandemic devastated crisis means carriers are likely to since the crisis began, although
international air travel, the Airbus need fewer large aircraft for some Lufthansa has all but condemned
A380’s demise has only been ac- time – and the A380 is particularly its 14 superjumbos to never fly
celerated by events over the past hard on the balance sheet when its again, without removing them from
12 months. While Emirates is wait- hundreds of seats are not full. future fleet counts.
ing for delivery of the final exam- Notably, the German carrier’s
ple, other airlines are looking to rid Still grounded plans suggest it will retain its
themselves of the double-decker. The vast majority of A380s re- 747-8s – some of which have been
Granted, dozens of Boeing 747s mained grounded at the end of kept in service through the pan-
are also heading for retirement March 2021, despite Cirium fleets demic – in preference to its simi-
sooner than expected, but none data showing that more than 61% larly aged A380s.
of those departing -400s could be of the world’s widebody aircraft Thai Airways International,
described as young. In contrast, were in service at that point. meanwhile, said on 12 March that
the superjumbo’s exit is super- Indeed, of the 233 A380s that were it was gauging market interest for
charged: the A380’s exodus from in service on the eve of the Covid-19 two of its six A380s. Middle East-
airline fleets is being discussed crisis on 1 January 2020, just 23 were ern carriers Etihad Airways and
less than 15 years after its first operating on 31 March 2021. Qatar Airways have also made
commercial flight, with many ex- “I think if all A380 operators similarly downbeat forecasts for
amples barely reaching double fig- could start over with a blank sheet the return of their superjumbos.
ures in terms of age. of paper, none would have the With the recovery of long-haul
Issues with the Airbus jet’s utility A380 in their post-pandemic fleet,” international travel expected to
beyond a few niche markets were says independent aviation analyst take some years, many carriers will
already well established pre-Covid, Brendan Sobie. be tempted to wait out some or all
14 Flight International May 2021Programme Retirement
persist for the next few years, at The type is therefore “an impor-
Delivery to Emirates of the last least: Emirates will continue to op- tant part of our fleet, and at the
example to be built is imminent erate by far the largest fleet of the minute our plans are to obviously
double-decker. fly [it again]”, he says, without dis-
Before the crisis, the Middle cussing a timeline.
Eastern carrier operated 115 A380s Pre-crisis, the Oneworld opera-
– essentially half of the world’s to- tor’s 12 A380s had been deployed
tal. Delivery of the last example to to destinations including Johan-
be built is imminent, with the jet in nesburg, Los Angeles, Hong Kong
March transferred to Airbus’s Ham- and Singapore.
burg site for outfitting. In Strickland’s view, BA’s relative-
Emirates president Tim Clark has ly young A380 fleet and its network
made it clear that, in his view, the dynamics, notably the number of
airline’s pre-pandemic business high-volume routes from London
model still holds up. That could Heathrow, mean the superjumbo is
mean A380s in Emirates’ colours likely to be useful to the carrier in a
well into the 2030s. “niche role”.
Qantas, too, has made positive
Unclear outlook noises about the prospect of even-
Nevertheless, it remains unclear tually flying its A380s again, not-
how many of the airline’s A380s ing their utility at slot-constrained
will return – and at what speed. airports and the fact that its fleet
John Strickland, director of JLS is largely written down.
Consulting, notes that “the sheer While the A380’s challenging
size and scale” of the carrier’s Du- economics are well documented,
bai hub “maximises the number of the superjumbo’s environmental
connections it can offer and traffic performance is increasingly weigh-
flows which it can manipulate to fill ing against its return.
up large amounts of capacity”. Carriers with heightened aware-
For Strickland, growth markets – ness of their sustainability are
particularly in Asia – and the “very unlikely to see a four-engined su-
important” point-to-point traffic perjumbo as the answer to any
to and from Dubai mean “Emirates challenges in that regard.
has a better opportunity than any Qatar Airways chief executive
other carrier to sustain large-scale Akbar Al Baker has been particu-
Airbus
A380 fleet capacity”, he says. larly outspoken on the type’s envi-
Rob Morris, global head of con- ronmental performance, although
sultancy at Ascend by Cirium, says perhaps with one eye on the fleet
of that period without their A380s, although it is “too early” to tell make-up of rival Emirates.
while allowing newer and/or small- whether Emirates can rebuild its
er twin-engined types to pick up network and volume, “it is already Environmental concerns
the slack. clear that even if they are able to In July 2020, Qatar Airways re-
“A look at the order books of erst- do so, there will be fewer A380s leased analysis showing that its
while A380 operators gives a hint of within the network since there A380s emitted 95% more carbon
what is to come – most operators will likely be some permanent loss dioxide (CO2) per block-hour on its
are betting on the Boeing 777-8/9, of demand and thus fewer routes Melbourne, New York and Toronto
787 and Airbus A350 to power their which can support the very largest routes than its A350s, and an aver-
future long-haul networks,” says aircraft in their fleet.” age of 80% more across all services.
Arvind Chandrasekhar, associate Despite those challenges, it is He describes the A380 as “one
partner at Lufthansa Consulting. not just Emirates making positive of the worst aircraft, when it
“Many already have the 777-300ER noises about the A380’s role in the comes to emissions, that is flying
in their fleets, which can take on the coming years. around today”.
role of long-haul workhorse.” British Airways chief executive Al Baker’s assessment reflects
As this plays out, one of the Sean Doyle said earlier this year the fact that the A380 belongs
dominant features of the A380’s that the A380 “works very well in a in the same class as several old-
existence pre-Covid looks likely to number of larger markets”. er-generation types when it comes
to CO2 emissions.
Richard Evans, senior consultant
“I think if all A380 operators could at Ascend by Cirium, points out that
the A380’s fuel burn and CO2 emis-
start over with a blank sheet of sions are “in the same class as the
777-300ER, 747-8 or A340-600” in
paper, none would have the A380 terms of CO2 per revenue passen-
ger kilometre (RPK), based on the
in their post-pandemic fleet” current average seat count of 501.
Newer twinjets such as the
Brendan Sobie Independent aviation analyst A330neo, A350 and 787 have
May 2021 Flight International 15Programme Retirement
“roughly 15-25% lower emissions
per RPK”, he says. CO2 perfor-
mance is even worse when the
effects of the A380’s poor cargo
capacity versus its widebody rivals
are factored in, he adds.
Of the chances for further sec-
ond-hand sales – beyond Portu-
guese wet-lease specialist Hi Fly’s
now ended foray – most analysts
suggest that opportunities will be
few and far between.
The high cost of refitting the
Phuong D Nguyen/Shutterstock
superjumbo was already known,
but that factor gains additional
emphasis as the post-pandemic
passenger mix shifts away from
business-class travel and towards
leisure markets.
Rather than returning to service
Thai Airways is likely to remove the type from its fleet
with other carriers, Sobie reckons
most retired airframes are likely to
end up as spare parts. In or out? The status of the world’s A380s
“There will be a lot of aircraft
parted out, which will help support ● Air France (nine A380s in pre-pandemic fleet): The carrier
the remaining fleet and perhaps announced in May 2020 that it would retire its A380s immediately,
make it a bit less expensive for the rather than in 2022 as previously scheduled.
likes of Emirates, [Singapore Air- ● ANA (two): The operator took delivery of its third and final A380 in
lines] and Qantas to operate the October last year and immediately placed it into storage.
A380,” he states. ● Asiana Airlines (six): With the Star Alliance carrier in the process
of merging with compatriot Korean Air, details on future fleet plans
Secondary market have been vague.
Morris notes that he had always ● British Airways (12): Chief executive Sean Doyle says the type has a
believed “the secondary market future with the Oneworld carrier, with no retirements announced.
for such a large aircraft as the ● China Southern Airlines (five): The carrier is one of the few to have
A380 would be extremely chal- used A380s during the pandemic, largely on infrequent domestic and
lenging”, with few aircraft expect- international services. But in mid-April, an executive noted: “Maybe
ed to serve with carriers beyond it’s too large for the routes, and the operating cost is very high.”
the initial operators. ● Emirates (115): President Tim Clark says the type will play a key role
What was not expected, howev- in the airline’s fleet for some time.
er, was the “dramatic demand dis- ● Etihad Airways (10): Chief executive Tony Douglas was quoted in
location” that is causing airlines to UAE media in early March as saying it was “very likely that we won't
remove aircraft from their opera- see [A380s] operating with Etihad again”.
tional fleets early. ● Hi Fly (one): The Portuguese wet-lease operator withdrew its
Morris continues: “Curiously, the former Singapore Airlines A380 from service in mid-December 2020,
pandemic may in the fullness of after less than three years of use.
time permit a few aircraft to transi- ● Lufthansa (14): The German carrier has not explicitly said its
tion, since A380 values have been A380s will not fly again, but has repeatedly downplayed the type’s
driven down so quickly. chances of a return.
“This may mean that in a ● Korean Air (10): See Asiana.
post-pandemic world the few ● Malaysia Airlines (six): The carrier’s plans for its superjumbo fleet
operators who can support such have been in limbo for years amid continued financial strife.
large aircraft in their network may ● Qantas (12): Chief executive Alan Joyce has said the type is likely
see opportunities to acquire the to fly in Qantas colours once a recovery in international markets is
aircraft at a very low price, and sufficiently advanced.
then complete reconfiguration ● Qatar Airways (10): The Oneworld carrier’s chief executive Akbar Al
and maintenance.” Baker has indicated that the operator will retain half of its A380s, but
According to Chandrasekhar, the that even those are unlikely to fly for several years.
A380s that survive the Covid-19 ● Singapore Airlines (19): The Star Alliance carrier said in November
crisis will be reduced to operating last year that seven of its 19 A380s would not return to service. It later
“some service on selected routes confirmed that a cabin upgrade programme would continue for the
over the rest of this decade as four aircraft in its remaining fleet of 12 jets that were yet to gain the
global air traffic recovers”. new configuration.
But he concludes: “A decade ● Thai Airways International (six): Reports suggest a wider
from now, we may see more A380s restructuring of the airline is likely to see A380s removed from Thai’s
in aviation museums than in com- fleet permanently.
mercial passenger service.” ◗
16 Flight International May 2021Visit FlightGlobal Premium for all the latest aviation news and insight FlightGlobal.com
Airbus
Mock-up will assess changes needed
for long-range performance
The learning power of PISA
Derisking efforts for A321XLR include modified fuselage
section to help with integration of narrowbody’s systems
David Kaminski-Morrow London Modifications to be considered for workers to aid manufacturing of
for the accelerator naturally in- the flight-test aircraft as well as the
clude the large rear centre tank heads-of-versions for customers.
O
ne of the Airbus A321neo which will provide the fuel capac- The A321XLR development ef-
fuselage sections previ- ity for the A321XLR’s range, as well fort is being supported by oth-
ously intended for deliv- as a new 300 litre (80USgal) waste er demonstrators and validation
ery to South American water tank, electronic rudder sys- platforms aimed at de-risking the
operator LATAM has instead been tem, modified fuel lines and hy- programme, which remains a cen-
supporting the A321XLR develop- draulics, and changes to the main tral part of Airbus’s post-crisis re-
ment programme as a system inte- landing-gear area. covery strategy.
gration platform. Virtual visualisation technology is Another A321neo fuselage sec-
Originally a standard A321LR cen- used to explore the fuselage in 3D tion, the nose of MSN9893, has
tre and aft section, the fuselage of prior to the physical fitting of the been adapted, at a new industrial
MSN8531 was withdrawn from the components in the demonstrator. maturity centre on the Saint Naz-
Hamburg Finkenwerder production aire site, into a physical mock-up to
line and effectively de-equipped – Major modifications support changes to the A320neo
its pre-installed systems removed “The PISA demonstrator embodies family – including the XLR.
in order to fit new ones specifically the end-to-end process from de- It is already being used to test in-
for the A321XLR. sign changes to industrialisation of tegration of a new main instrument
Airbus calls the fuselage section a the A321XLR,” says the airframer. panel which will become a stand-
“pre-industrial system accelerator” “It is not just for the ramp-up of the ard for the family.
– or PISA – a hybrid capable of sup- XLR but also for future adaptations “Pre-final assembly line operators
porting both A321LR and A321XLR and major modifications.” in Saint Nazaire are now able to un-
interior configurations on the main Airbus head of XLR demonstra- derstand this new [panel] structure
deck while specially-developed tors Frank Dohrmann, who leads the in real factory conditions with the
systems for the latter model are in- PISA project, adds that the demon- installation and ergonomics vali-
stalled on the lower deck. strator will provide a training facility dation on the physical mock-up,”
Harness the power of analytics with
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18 Flight International May 2021Programme Development
says Denis Abraham, of Airbus’s
single-aisle value-stream mapping A320neo steered towards full electric rudder
programme management.
Other evolutionary changes Airbus is aiming to replace the mechanical rudder controls on
will be integrated initially into the A320neo-family aircraft, switching to a full electric rudder system by
mock-up, he says, allowing the early 2024.
manufacturer to identify risks and The modification will coincide with the entry into service of the
potential disruption as well as op- long-range A321XLR, which is being developed with the “E-rudder”
timise logistics and tooling place- architecture in mind.
ment ahead of production. While the initial delivery had been intended at the end of this year,
“This preliminary work will also with an A320neo powered by CFM International Leap-1A engines,
help to achieve quality objectives Airbus says it is “reviewing the introduction scenario” given the
more easily,” says Abraham. disruption from the pandemic.
A321XLR airframe leader Martin The E-rudder will become standard on the A319neo, A320neo and
Schnoor says the nose mock-up A321neo range. But it will not be fitted to conventional A320-family
will be used to analyse structural jets, nor will it be available as a retrofit.
reinforcement for the new aircraft Under the current A320 and A320neo fly-by-wire architecture,
owing to “different loads” on the seven computers – two flight-augmentation computers, two elevator-
forward section, as well as improve- aileron computers, and three spoiler-elevator computers – handle the
ments to systems for cabin comfort. flight-control surfaces.
But although the flight-augmentation computers provide input for
Industrial interfaces yaw damping, rudder travel limit and trim, the rudder system retains
“The [mock-up] gives us the op- mechanical linkages between the pedals in the cockpit and the
portunity to bring all modifications hydraulic rudder actuators.
together from [the airframe, sys- The E-rudder programme will replace the mechanical interface with
tems and cabin areas] to confirm an electrical one, saving some 40kg (88lb) in weight by enabling the
the industrial interfaces,” he adds. removal of several fixtures and three computer units.
Airbus is intending to put the Both flight-augmentation computers and one of the spoiler-elevator
A321XLR into service in 2023, and computers will be withdrawn, along with the yaw-damper and rudder-
the aircraft is approaching the trim actuators, and the travel limiter unit.
assembly phase for major struc- Conversion to the E-rudder system involves installing a new rudder-
tural components. pedal unit in the cockpit, new rudder-position sensors, and a back-up
Demonstrators ranging from control module.
basic wooden replicas – to veri- The rudder will be controlled through the two elevator-aileron
fy accessibility for electrical, me- computers, for normal law, and the two remaining spoiler-elevator
chanical, bleed-air and piping in- computers, plus the back-up module, in direct law.
stallations – to advanced digital Airbus will also reconfigure control of the inboard spoilers, which
augmented reality and 3D-printed were previously tied to the third spoiler-elevator computer.
parts have all been employed to The primary flight-control computers will have updated hardware
support the XLR’s development. and software, and software changes will be made to several others,
“Early physical demonstrators while the rudder-actuation systems will be modified.
and the virtual demonstrators en- “Ramp-up will be done over 2023 to standardise E-rudder by early
able us to validate our design deci- 2024,” says Airbus, adding that the simpler system will also save fuel
sions and close these topics,” says and reduce maintenance costs.
A321XLR programme head Gary Suppliers including Collins Aerospace, Liebherr, Safran and Thales
O’Donnell, adding that most of this are participating in the equipment updates for the programme.
work was completed in 2020. Airbus adds that no relocation of the computers in the avionics bay
The full-scale production stand- will be necessary.
ard demonstrators will support in-
dustrial process maturity, training,
and “help secure our ramp-up”,
he says, and will also be used by
maintenance and customer-sup-
port teams to develop manuals and
technical documentation.
“All these demonstrators help us
to observe the systems, activities,
Karolis Kavolelis/Shuttertock
workflows and premises under real
conditions at an early stage before
start of production,” says head of
XLR equipping Hauke Delmas.
“They provide a protected space
for learning and further develop-
ment. It is therefore possible to
learn from mistakes on the mock- Updated system will enter service
ups without endangering produc- in 2024 on Neo-family aircraft
tion or safety.” ◗
May 2021 Flight International 19PAID CONTENT
Ready for something different?
World Defense Show – which debuts in Riyadh in Saudi Arabia
in March next year – promises to be an industry event like none
other. We find out what will set it apart from the rest
A
fter a year in which there event alone. The location for WDS and Rolls-Royce are among those
have been few opportu- – a short drive north of the capital who have confirmed, and Ormrod
nities for industry profes- – is an 800,000sq m exhibition site, expects to announce more in the
sionals to meet in person, inspired by Saudi Arabian archi- coming months. “Our international
the prospect of a brand new bi- tectural styles, with two halls of a reach is growing,” he says.
ennial global defence exhibition in combined 58,000sq m, plus its own Like other defence shows, WDS
early 2022 is doubly enticing. For land demonstration track, 2.7km will be multi-sector, with aerospace,
it will take place in a nation that is runway, a firing range, 120,000 sq naval, land, cyber and satellite as-
not only one of the most dynam- m inner court yard and dedicated sets on display. Riyadh’s inland lo-
ic markets in the world, but going airspace for flying displays. cation presents an opportunity for
through remarkable economic, po- visitors to experience how interop-
litical, and social change. Unique advantage erable technology works in prac-
The World Defense Show, which “We have had the unique advan- tice – even on platforms that are
was founded by the Kingdom’s tage of being able to design this not physically at the show. Attend-
General Authority for Military In- from a blank sheet of paper,” says ees, for instance, might be able to
dustries (GAMI) and is scheduled WDS chief executive officer Shaun stand in the “command and control
for 6-9 March in Riyadh, Saudi Ormrod, an events veteran who centre” of a ship as a military ex-
Arabia, will be an event unlike any previously headed the company ercise takes place, thanks to virtual
other – both in its setting, and that runs the Farnborough Air- reality, says Ormrod.
also in the context in which it will show. He and his Saudi colleagues The reason for choosing the de-
be staged. The Gulf kingdom – for have spent two-and-a-half years sert site was that “we wanted an
decades one of the biggest oil pro- conceiving the event, which was area that we had complete control
ducers and in a strategically vital formally launched in July last year. over”, says Ormrod. That means
region – is diversifying its economy Ormrod has recruited 40 staff that – in addition to benefiting from
by opening its door to investors and is adding 20 more. His sales a bespoke venue – visitors will also
and visitors, as it transforms its de- representatives in China, France, appreciate a full day’s air display
fence industrial sector. the UK, and the USA are working schedule, with those being enter-
As far as the setting is concerned, on signing up major international tained in 60 hospitality suites on
few trade shows can boast an ex- exhibitors: Chinese defence agen- the first and second floors enjoying
hibition site purpose-built for that cy CATIC, missiles house MBDA, a panoramic view of static and sky.
20 Flight International May 2021PAID CONTENT
But what about, what is for some, international visitors and for busi-
the bane of the busy air show – the ness. Importantly, the visa process
screaming background noise of a is much simpler than it used to be
jet fighter interrupting a meal or for most nationalities.
meeting with its airborne display?
It may be, as Americans term it, Great expectations
the “sound of freedom”, but amid Many of Ormrod’s team are experi-
a delicate business negotiation, it enced in every element of airshows
is often less appreciated. For those around the world. This, he says,
in the hospitality suites, however, it helps with understanding visitors’
will not be a problem; each room is needs. “We are learning for our-
insulated to reduce external noise. selves what the expectations are.
WDS has the backing of both na- We are already doing the dry run
tional military champion Saudi Ara- – our priority is to ensure a smooth
bian Defense Industries, or SAMI, customer journey from start to fin-
and GAMI, the General Authority ish,” he says. He says those con-
Chief executive Shaun Ormrod
for Military Industries, which is the sidering exhibiting are welcome in
has a wealth of experience
regulator and enabler for the king- Riyadh for a tour of the show site,
dom’s defence sector, and charged which is under construction with a
with realizing a national commit- view to completion later this year.
ment to have local companies sup- generation of young Saudis. This World Defense Show has an-
plying 50% of Saudi armed forces will involve partnerships with in- nounced dates for 2024 and 2026.
procurement by 2030. ternational partners, prepared to “We are making it crystal clear we
This pledge is part of Saudi Ara- invest in the kingdom’s burgeoning are here to stay,” remarks Orm-
bia’s Vision 2030 strategy, a vision aerospace and defence sector. rod. “The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
spearheaded by Crown Prince HRH One of the unique selling points is taking its rightful place on the
Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, of WDS, says Ormrod, will be the world stage.” As for what visitors
which is designed to diversify Sau- opportunity for exhibitors to have can expect, Ormrod has no doubt
di Arabia from an economy reliant “meaningful, coordinated engage- what the reaction of many will be:
on exports of oil and other natural ment with the Saudi government “I fully expect to be standing there
resources into a “global investment and defence community”. If visiting as people leave and hear them say:
powerhouse”, turning the kingdom companies are willing to “align their ‘Wow! That was different!’” ◗
into a hub for trade between the strategy with Vision 2030, there
three continents of Africa, Asia, will be opportunities aplenty”, he ● World Defense Show will
and Europe. insists. “I make no excuses for mak- be held in the presence of
The “rebalancing” of defence ing this one of our key USPs.” Saudi Arabia’s key leadership,
spending will involve nurturing Ormrod says he is aware that international delegations and
an ecosystem of small and me- many defence professionals may prominent industry decision-
dium-sized enterprises, provid- not have visited Saudi Arabia makers from around the world.
ing job opportunities and career and not know what to expect;. To learn more about the show, visit
routes within the country to a new The country, he says, is open for www.worlddefenseshow.com.
May 2021 Flight International 21Visit FlightGlobal Premium for all the latest aviation news and insight FlightGlobal.com
Jon Flobrant/Unsplash
Briefing packages for flightcrew can
include hundreds of notices to airmen
ICAO targets information overload
Organisation aiming to eliminate 400,000 NOTAMs in 2021, as
seven-fold increase over 20 years leaves pilots overwhelmed
David Kaminski-Morrow London advising of the runway closure was global campaign to overhaul the
on the eighth, towards the middle NOTAM system.
of the second page of NOTAMs. Zee presented the example of
T
he overflight of a heavily- Although the entry included a a typical briefing package for an
occupied taxiway by an Air- ‘NEW’ marker in red with aster- A330 flight from Munich to Singa-
bus A320 at San Francisco isks, and bold text for ‘RWY’ and pore, containing 24 pages of op-
International airport illus- ‘CLSD’, the inquiry said: “This lev- erational information – fuel, route
trated the serious risks of overload- el of emphasis was not effective in and weather data, all clearly laid
ing pilots with NOTAMs, an ICAO prompting the flightcrew members out – followed by some 120 pages
forum has heard, as the organisa- to review [or] retain this informa- of NOTAMs.
tion launches an effort to reduce tion, especially given the NOTAM’s
the volume of their use. location, which was not optimal for Routine occurrence
The Air Canada jet’s crew, intend- information recall.” “This is not a special case,” he says.
ing to land on runway 28R at night It points out that a psychological “This is routinely happening. Every
in July 2017, inadvertently lined up characteristic called the ‘serial po- flight, every day, is getting a very
with the parallel taxiway C, which sition effect’ results in people being big package of NOTAMs.”
was occupied by four aircraft – only better able to recall the first and Finnair A320 captain Lauri Soini
executing a go-around at 100ft af- last items in a series than those in points out that each page will con-
ter overflying the first of them. the middle. tain some 10-15 NOTAMs.
US National Transportation Safety “The failure to see this NOTAM “For every single one we should
Board investigators found the pilots was, in essence, the primary cause read, understand and decide if it’s
misidentified the taxiway because of this serious incident. That was a relevant for our flight,” he says. But
they had not recalled the closure of wake-up call,” Mark Zee, founder of even reading at a rate of just 5s
runway 27L contained in a NOTAM. OpsGroup and a former pilot and each, he notes, the process could
The crew’s flight-release package air traffic controller, said during an take over 90min, whereas crews
was 27 pages long and the notice ICAO event on 8 April initiating a might only have 20min for pre-
flight briefing.
Twenty years ago the total brief-
“A NOTAM should never be active ing package would have been “us-
able” at fewer than 20 pages, says
for more than three months, and Soini, but the increase in NOTAM
data has been “staggering”.
never be replaced more than once” Some 1.7 million NOTAMs were
published in 2020, ICAO says, with
ICAO about 35,000 remaining active on
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