Evolving to Build A Weather-Ready Nation: Nema
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Your National Weather Service
Evolving to Build A Weather-Ready Nation:
Ready, Responsive, Resilient
Dr. Louis W. Uccellini
Director, National Weather Service
NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services
April 6, 2016 – National Emergency Management Association – Alexandria, VA
Increase in Extreme Events
“Average” Year and Trends in the U.S.
650 Fatalities 26,000 Severe 6 Atlantic Basin 1,300 Tornadoes 5,000 Floods
$15B in Losses Thunderstorms Hurricanes
Increasing Vulnerability
• Increasing population
• More infrastructure at risk
• Signs of sea level rise
• Improved forecasts of extreme
events 4-8 days in advance
• Connecting forecasts to
decision-makers is basis for
building a Weather-Ready
Event Type: Geophysical Hydrological Meteorological Climatological
Nation
NOAA’s National Weather Service 2
NWS Strategic Outcome:
A Weather-Ready Nation
Becoming a Weather-Ready Nation is about building community resiliency in the
face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather, water & climate events
“Ready, Responsive, Resilient”
REQUIRES NWS TO:
– Fully integrate our field structure to produce:
• Better forecasts and warnings
• Consistent products and services
• Actionable environmental intelligence
Address the “last mile” that connects forecast to critical national, state and location
decisions
– Provide Impact-based Decision Support Services (IDSS)
– Deliver through multiple and reliable dissemination pathways
– Work with partners to gain needed response; includes embedding NWS in Emergency
Operations Centers and incorporating Social Sciences
Involves entire U.S. Weather, Water and Climate Enterprise WORKING TOGETHER
to achieve far-reaching national preparedness for weather events
NOAA’s National Weather Service 3
The Intrinsic Value of Forecasts
“First, it should be understood that forecasts possess no
intrinsic value. They acquire value through their ability to
influence the decisions made by users of the forecasts.”
“What is a Good Forecast? An Essay on the
Nature of Goodness in Weather Forecasting”
‒ by Allan H. Murphy; Weather and Forecasting (June 1993)
NOAA’s National Weather Service 4
IDSS: Going Beyond the Forecast
Connecting those
Generating forecasts
and warnings
forecasts/warnings with partner = IDSS
decision-making process
Practice, practice,
Impact-based
practice! Decision
Support
Services
Trust
Embed
The best
hydrometeorological Develop
forecasting in the relationships /
world know partner
needs
“Ready, Responsive, Resilient”
NOAA’s National Weather Service 5
Extraordinary Success in
Predicting Extreme Events
2015 Holiday Storm & January 2016 Flooding
• 6-8 day lead time for heavy rain, snow, severe weather
• IDSS provided from national to local level
January 2016 East Coast Blizzard & Coastal Storm
• 8 day lead time drove IDSS at the state and local level
March 2016 Southern Floods
• 7 day lead time highlighting the flood potential
• IDSS provided from national to local level
6
NOAA’s National Weather Service 6
2015 Holiday Storm / Jan. 2016 Flooding:
Forecasting the Storm Days in Advance
Surface Charts
Day 7 Day 5 Day 3
Day 2 Day 1 Analysis
NOAA’s National Weather Service 7
2015 Holiday Storm / Jan. 2016 Flooding:
Forecasting the Storm Days in Advance
Severe Weather Outlooks for Saturday, Dec. 26th
Day 4 Outlook Day 3 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook
NOAA’s National Weather Service 8
2015 Holiday Storm / Jan. 2016 Flooding:
Forecasting the Storm Days in Advance
Severe Weather Outlooks for Sunday, Dec. 27th
Day 4 Outlook Day 3 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook
NOAA’s National Weather Service 9
2015 Holiday Storm / Jan. 2016 Flooding:
Forecasting the Storm Days in Advance
Probability of Snow/Sleet Liquid Equivalent > 0.25”
for Saturday, Dec. 26th
Day 7 Day 6 Day 5
Day 4
Verification Shaded in
Blue
NOAA’s National Weather Service 102015 Holiday Storm / Jan. 2016 Flooding:
Forecasting the Storm Days in Advance
Probability of Snow/Sleet Liquid Equivalent > 0.25”
for Sunday, Dec. 27th
NOAA’s National Weather Service 112015 Holiday Storm / Jan. 2016 Flooding:
Forecasting the Storm Days in Advance
Precipitation Forecasts
Day 6 Day 5 Day 3
Day 2 Day 1 Observed
NOAA’s National Weather Service 122015 Holiday Storm / Jan. 2016 Flooding
Past Crest
• Coordination with federal/state/local
partners commenced Dec. 21-22
• Specific collaborative activities focus
on threats related to severe weather,
Image fills this entire area blizzard, and flooding conditions
• Pre-positioning of assets and rapid
January 13-14
(OR originates at the upper response team commenced over
left corner of the area Christmas holiday
outlined and is sized to the • Long-term support provided for
January 14-15
full width or height of this flooding along the Mississippi River
bounding box.)
States of Emergency Declared
January 16-17 TX, NM, MO, OK, IL, MS, LA
January 18
January 19-20
NOAA’s National Weather Service 132015 Holiday Storm / Jan. 2016 Flooding:
The Spectrum of IDSS
“I want to first fully thank the dedicated professionals
here at the National Weather Service for providing us
with the most updated forecast briefing this afternoon
and for their continued hard work as part of the effort
to protect lives and property. Folks here are incredibly
professional. We rely on them, and they don't let us
down. We tremendously appreciate, especially over
Missouri Governor Jay Nixon
the holidays, how they're always there and always
helpful, doing the best they can to help law
enforcement and others.”
NOAA’s National Weather Service 14January 2016 Blizzard & Coastal Storm:
Forecasting the Storm Days in Advance
Experimental Probability Forecast for Probability Forecast for
Probability Forecast 48-hour Snowfall 48-hour Snowfall
4 days prior to event 3 days prior to event 2 days prior to event
NOAA’s National Weather Service 15January 2016 Blizzard & Coastal Storm
NEW
LOCATION
RECORD
Allentown, PA 31.9"
Baltimore, MD 29.2"
Harrisburg, PA 30.2"
JFK Airport, NY 30.5"
LaGaurdia, NY 27.9"
Wildwood, NJ
Category 4 Winter Storm on NESIS Scale
A Historic Storm – 4th most impactful since 1900
NOAA’s National Weather Service 16January 2016 Blizzard & Coastal Storm:
Connecting All of the Pieces
Jan 15 - 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 22
Medium Range Confidence Partner Fed./state/local govts Snow begins in the
products begin increasing Coordination/ make critical decisions Mid-Atlantic
identifying Partner Briefings before the snow begins Snow forecast
snowstorm adjusted to
Coordination/ Media
threat for the include NYC in
Briefings interviews
end of next Blizzard Warning
week Blizzard
Watches
NWS offices Issued
begin briefing Blizzard Warnings
partners on Media Issued Schools/Govt Close
potential storm interviews 1 pm: Press Briefing Flights Canceled
Roads Closed
NOAA’s National Weather Service 17January 2016 Blizzard:
Connecting All of the Pieces
Long Island Expressway
2013 Snowstorm 2016 Snowstorm
The Past With Decision Support
NOAA’s National Weather Service 182016 Major Milestones
• Demonstrate the “National Blend of Models” for evaluation
• Continue to increase supercomputing capacity
• Major Model Implementations:
– Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)
– Global Forecast System (GFS)
– Hurricane Weather Research & Forecast (HWFR)
– High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) v.2
• Operational Release of Storm Surge Inundation Graphic
• Implement Experimental NWC Centralized Water Forecast Modeling System v1.0
• Implement One NWS dissemination network to support consistent products and
services
• IDSS professional development series and policy
Evolving Your NWS to Build a Weather-Ready Nation
NOAA’s National Weather Service 19Computer Status/Model Implementation
Supported through HFIP and Sandy Supplemental
Reflectivity Observations HRRR 15 UTC 29 June 2012
TeraFLOP per operational system
New Global &
Hurricane
models will be
implemented
by June 2016
NOAA’s National Weather Service 20NWS Operations & Workforce Analysis (OWA)
Phase 1 Summary
OWA External OWA Operating Model Workstream will focus on
Survey sent to Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS):
EMs NWS employees embrace IDSS, and EMs use “I trust my
(Summer 2015)
IDSS with high customer satisfaction partners at
NWS and I
Analysis of surveys However, there are a number of definitions of IDSS, know them –
and interviews including in terms of what IDSS products are the tone of their
voice, the way
(Fall 2015) provided, how IDSS is delivered, when IDSS is they report out
delivered and to whom IDSS is being delivered to us. And they
know me.”
OWA identified the need for service
consistency and role clarity “We have to know
for both internal operations and what the NWS can
do for us, but we
external IDSS
also have to know
(Winter 2015) what they can’t
do, or we’ll ask
With respect to FIFS – them to do
Current allocations of resources everything, and,
God help them,
do not match current or emerging they’ll try and give
needs of core partners. it to us”
NOAA’s National Weather Service 22Operations & Workforce Analysis Timeline
FY18-
Where we are today 23+
FY17
FY16
▪ Implement OWA
recommendations
FY15 ▪ Test and evaluate OWA
▪ Complete OWA with recommendations,
recommendations for fully including the Fully
▪ OWA diagnostic on integrated field and Integrated Field
baseline and gaps to collaborative forecast Structure
Overall
support WRN across process (FIFS)
org structure,
workforce, and
▪ Establish priority partners
through “deep
operating model
relationships”
▪ Consider IDSS ▪ Rollout IDSS policy ▪ Test and evaluate FIFS ▪ Complete FIFS
models organizational changes ▪
▪ Evaluate and enhance Ensure NBM in all
▪ Conduct OHI survey forecasting process ▪ Refine IDSS approach regions
▪ ▪ ▪
Details
Identify actionable ▪ Give guidance on Fully Continue National Blend Adjust roles and skills
ideas Integrated Field Structure of Models ▪ Assess and support
(FIFS) design ▪ Reassess OHI actionable ideas
▪ Drive actionable ideas ▪
Launch new actionable
ideas
Engage and communicate with internal and external stakeholders
NOAA’s National Weather Service 23Summary
• NWS is poised to make great strides in improving prediction capabilities
– 2.8 PF computers now installed. Meteorological “Big Data” and analytics just got bigger
– New global to fine scale numerical models to be implemented by the hurricane season
– Upcoming major advances in global observations/satellites (JPSS)
• Tremendous progress in predicting extreme events
• Connecting forecasters to decision makers crucial to Building a Weather-Ready
Nation
• From the National Centers to the local forecast offices – the NWS provides the
Impact-Based Decision Support Services required to prepare, respond, and ensure
resilience for the “last mile” needed to ensure lives are saved
• In Building a Weather-Ready Nation, the men and women of the NWS are clearly
leading the world in addressing the increasing vulnerabilities to extreme events
and becoming Second to None
NOAA’s National Weather Service 24El Niño is weakening
but the atmospheric
effect will continue
Potential for
drought
improvement
March 30, 2015 March 30, 2016
Area Covered by Snow: 8.6% Area Covered by Snow: 49.4%
Avg. Snow Water Equivalent: 0.6 in Avg. Snow Water Equivalent: 6.5 inTHANK YOU! NOAA’s National Weather Service 26
April-May-June Outlook Above/Below categories are relative to "normal" NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center
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