Electric vehicle study - CITY OF MINNEAPOLIS
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Electric vehicle study
CITY OF MINNEAPOLIS
1
Electric vehicles in the city fleet
Overview of presentation
• Staff direction
• City fleet and current market
• Financial analysis
• Next steps
2
Electric vehicles in the city fleet
• Staff direction
• Benefits
• Feasibility
• Reasonable exceptions
• Cost benefit
• Various alternatives
• Recommended approach
3
Electric vehicles in the city fleet
4
Why Electric Vehicles (EV) ?
•City of Minneapolis Climate Action Plan (2006)
Why Electric Vehicles (EV)?
Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trend – MPLS Fleet
20,000
Metric Tons CO2
18,000
16,000
14,000
Metric Tons CO2
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2013 2014 2015 2016
Year
6
Current electric vehicle availability
Light Heavy Non‐Road
Duty Vehicles Duty Vehicles Vehicles
SUV / Trucks
Light Heavy Solid Heavy Light All
Sedans Mini / Cargo
Pickup Pickup Waste Const. Const. other
vans Vans
Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York
EV Yes Yes Testing R&D Testing Testing R&D R&D Testing
City vehicle profile
Light Duty Heavy Duty Non‐Road
Vehicles Vehicles Vehicles
All other Vehicles
SUV / Minivans
Trucks / Cargo
Heavy Pickups
Light Pickups
Construction
Construction
Solid Waste
Sedans
Heavy
Light
Vans
Total 297 160 16 240 191 55 29 18 3
Volvo
Western Crane
Ford Ford Chevy Ford Wheel Bobcat Polaris
Ex. Focus Escape Colorado F-250
Star Carrier
Loader S185 Ranger
SB4700 LET2-40
L-90
Electric vehicles in the city fleet
•Scenario Evaluation
• Background
• Approach
• Outcomes
9Strategies for EV Transition
Terminologies
Benefits
• Maintenance Savings: The savings in parts and labor for maintaining the
vehicle fleet and electric charging infrastructure
• Fuel Savings: The savings in fueling the entire fleet, includes gasoline,
biodiesel, and electricity purchases from business‐as‐usual (BAU)
• CO2 Reduction: The metric tons of carbon dioxide (MTCO2) emissions reduced
from BAU
Costs
• Total Capital Costs: The cost of purchasing the vehicles and charging stations
• Total O&M Costs: The total 10‐year lifecycle costs for fuel and maintenance
of the fleet
• Lifecycle Costs: The summation of Total Capital Costs and Total O&M CostsStrategies for EV Transition
Terminologies
Net Present Value
• Net Present Value: The total discounted net benefits over
the analysis period and represents the value of the total
benefits minus costs in 2017 dollars
• Discount Rate: The analysis employs a discount rate for
present value discounting. The discount rates capture the
time‐value of money as well as uncertainty risk.
Cost Effectiveness
• Cost Effectiveness ‐ CO2 Reduction: Compared to BAU, the
cost to save one metric ton of CO2 by integrating electric
vehicles into the fleet for each scenarioStrategies for EV Transition
Formation of Scenarios
Key Assumptions
• 10 year timeframe for all scenarios (2018 ‐ 2027)
• Number of EV replacement in a year < Number of ICE replacements in a year
• All ICE vehicles cannot be converted to EV in a 10 year timeframe
City’s Existing
Projected EV
Plan for Vehicle
Industry Assumed
Replacement
Pricing, Financial
(i.e., how many
Technology, & Constraints
vehicles each
Trends
year)
Number
Priority Goals of and Type of
Fleet EV to be
Conversion Replaced in
a YearStrategies for EV Transition
Formation of Scenarios ‐ (Including Consideration of
Financial, Industrial and Technical Constraints)
Scenario Objectives
• Scenario 1 ‐ Maximize CO2 reduction without financial constraints
• Scenario 2 – Maximize CO2 reduction with $5M financial constraint
• Scenario 3 – Maximize Net Present Value with $5M financial constraint
• Scenario 4 – Maximize Total Benefits (fuel, maintenance and CO2)
• Scenario 5 – Maximize total number of EV’s purchased
• Scenario 6 ‐ Maximize Net Present Value while delaying EV purchase for
two years to save funding (results same as Scenario 3)
Key Considerations Among All Scenarios
• No SUV / Minivan Vehicle Purchase Until 2020
• No Heavy Duty Vehicle, Heavy Construction Vehicle, Light Construction
Vehicle Purchase Until 2022Strategies for EV Transition
Results and Comparison of Scenarios
Business Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario
As Usual 1 2 3/6 4 5Strategies for EV Transition
Results and Comparison of Scenarios
Total Number of EVs
500 45% 45% 50%
44%
450 45%
400 40%
Percent of Fleet
350 35%
•# of EVs
300 27% 30%
250 25%
200 20%
8%
150 15%
8%
100 10%
50 5%
456 271 82 82 439 458
0 0%
Sc. 1 Sc. 2 Sc. 3 Sc. 6 Sc. 4 Sc. 5
Number of EV Percent of FleetStrategies for EV Transition
Results and Comparison of Scenarios with BAU
Benefits [ Maintenance Savings, Fuel Savings, CO2 Reduction ]
3 10.6 12
10.8 10.7
10
MTCO2 in Thousands
7.7
2 8
•Million $
4.7 4.7 6
1 4
2
0
0 0
BAU Sc. 1 Sc. 2 Sc. 3 Sc. 6 Sc. 4 Sc. 5
Maintenance Savings Fuel Savings CO2 ReductionStrategies for EV Transition
Results and Comparison of Scenarios with BAU
Costs [ Total Capital, Total O&M (Fuel + Maintenance), Lifecycle ]
140 127 131.1 128.7 126.9 126.9 130.8 131.1
120
100
80
Million $
60 Total Capital Costs
Total O&M Costs
40
Lifecycle Costs
20
0
BAU Sc. 1 Sc. 2 Sc. 3 Sc. 6 Sc. 4 Sc. 5Strategies for EV Transition
Results and Comparison of Scenarios with BAU
Net Present Value (NPV) [ NPV (3% & 7% Discount), Change in NPV from
BAU (3% & 7% Discount) ]
20 0.8 1.7 1.7 0
0 0.6 1.4 2.5 2.5 0.8 0.6
0
‐20
‐40
Million $
‐60
‐80
‐100
‐120
BAU Sc. 1 Sc. 2 Sc. 3 Sc. 6 Sc. 4 Sc. 5
NPV (3% Discount) NPV (7% Discount)
Change in NPV (3% Discount) Change in NPV (7% Discount)Strategies for EV Transition
Results and Comparison of Scenarios with BAU
Cost Effectiveness [ CO2 Reduction ]
400 $ 375 $ 378
$ 357
350
300
$ 222
250
200
150
100
50
$0 ‐ $ 23 ‐ $ 23
0
‐50
BAU Sc. 1 Sc. 2 Sc. 3 Sc. 6 Sc. 4 Sc. 5
CO2 Reduction (Per MTCO2 Reduced)Costs and Benefits of EV Transition
Cost Considerations
Capital Costs
• EV typically have lower fuel and maintenance costs than ICE vehicles,
but higher capital costs
• There is industry consensus that the cost of EVs are trending downward
as production volumes increase and battery costs decreases
Fuel Economy Estimates
• EV typically achieve better fuel economy and have lower fuel costs
than similar ICE vehicles
• The cost per kWh of electricity tends to be lower and more stable than
the cost per gallon of gasoline, diesel, or bio‐dieselCosts and Benefits of EV Transition
Cost Considerations
Maintenance Costs
• EV has less moving parts, hence lower maintenance cost
• Over 5 years, EVs can save an average of 35% on maintenance in
comparison to ICE vehicles
Charging Infrastructure Considerations
• Plan ahead and install more Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE)
charging stations than currently needed (cost effective)
• EVSE should be purchased at approximately 1:1 ratio with number of
EVs
(All EV can be charged adequately overnight)
• Planning for fleet recharging during off‐peak periods can add up to
thousands of dollars in savings
• Special tariff from power suppliers for usage during off‐peak hoursCosts and Benefits of EV Transition
Environmental Benefits
Estimated Annual Carbon Dioxide Emissions per Vehicle (pounds)
Over a 10 year period (2018‐2027)
‐64%
70,000
60,000 ‐40%
‐50%
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000 ‐40%
‐63% ‐60% ‐70%
10,000 ‐66% ‐56% ICE
0 EV
Ivy Station, Culver City, CaliforniaConsiderations Before EV Adoption
Monitor:
• Electric Vehicle Usage in Winter Months
• Potential Sources of Funding for EV Purchases
• Industry Progress with EV
Review:
• Vehicle Replacement Approach for New EV Models
Prepare:
• Infrastructure and Maintenance Staff for EV OperationsCITY OF MINNEAPOLIS
Questions
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