E-MOBILITÄT: DER ANTRIEB IM TECHNOLOGISCHEN WANDEL - IHK Aachen
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„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“
„E-Mobilität aus der Region Aachen“
Prepared for E-MOBILITÄT:
IHK Aachen DER ANTRIEB IM TECHNOLOGISCHEN WANDEL
Aachen, April 12th 2018
Rüdiger Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH
© by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties
„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“ Agenda Introduction Drivers and challenges towards an electrified future of mobility FEV powertrain topology forecast 2030 Influence on automakers and suppliers R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018 © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 2
„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“
NEW YORK CITY (FIFTH AVENUE), EASTER 1900: CARS ARE THE EXCEPTION
„If I had asked
people what they
wanted, they would
have answered
‘faster horses’.“
Henry Ford
R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018 © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 3
„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“ NEW YORK CITY (FIFTH AVENUE), EASTER 1913 – ONLY 13 YEARS LATER! R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018 © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 4
„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“
E-mobility has reached its „Tipping Point“, most automotive OEMs have
announced to accelerate on the development of their electric models
„We will introduce more than 30 „Until 2022 we will bring more than
additional pure electric vehicles ten new electric vehicles into series
into the market until 2025.“ production: from smart up to SUV.“
Matthias Müller, VW, Dieter Zetsche, Daimler,
March 2017 March 2017
“Already in 2020 it could be that „In 2025, 15 to 25 percent of our
we sell 40 to 50 percent of our sales should be electric and plug-
vehicles as pure electric or hybrid“ in hybrid vehicles.“
Ralph Speth, Jaguar Land Rover, Harald Krüger, BMW,
March 2017 March 2017
“Increase production until 2018 to „We are confident that by 2020,
500,000 and until 2020 to one 10 percent of Volvo’s global sales
million vehicles per year.“ will be electrified cars.“
Elon Musk, Tesla Motors, Håkan Samuelsson, Volvo Cars,
January 2017 May 2017
Source: Press releases of shown OEMs
R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018 © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 5Your engineering partner worldwide
Independent engineering company
Supporting engineering
developments from innovations up
to SOP
Optimizing customers products
and processes
~530 M€ revenue in 2017
Close to our customers:
subsidiaries on
40+ four continents
test cells for engines,
200+ transmissions, drivelines,
e-machines, batteries
Subsidiary Headquarter 5000+ employees
globally
R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018 © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 6A partner you can trust PORTFOLIO OF SERVICES – ORGANIZATION BY BUSINESS UNITS R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018 © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 7
„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“
FEV Europe GmbH history of development activities
Electrification
Axle-split
PHEV with
Dedicated Hybrid
GROWING GLOBALLY IN FAST PACE ESPECIALLY THE LAST 20 YEARS torque
vectoring
Transmission demo
car on the road
48V eCharger demo
First fuel cell demo car Fleet of FEV BEV on the car on the road
on the road (HyPower), road equipped with FEV
Start of hybrid
Test drive at Simplon Start of Li-Ion Battery battery, BMS, electric
benchmarking programm Tesla S benchmark
Pass Switzerland and BMS development powertrain control unit, IKT
Start of FEV Hybrid SOP of Powertrain
Control Unit Development Controll Unit SW for BEV
P2-Hybrid SOP
First off-road
Start of FEV hybrid
hybrid powertrain
system simulation tool Liquid cooled
high performance
First FEV hybrid demo car Next Generation battery design
on the road equipped with Start of eHorizon P2-Hybrid SOP
Development SOP of next
Supercaps
First SOP of eHorizon Generation P2-Hybrid
with ePGS
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
first SOP of FEV
First battery FEV EESY battery design, battery and BMS SW
test bench in combined battery with
operation high power and high Fuel Cell range extender
First mass energy modules vehicle on the road
Start of fuel cell Start of hybrid
production intended
system development system development SOP of BEV and PHEV
Diesel hybrid
First SOPs of hybrid
vehicles in Europe
Start of first mass production and Asia
Microhybrid
intended hybrid projects
demo car on
First FEV BEV on the road V2 range extender the road
equipped with FEV battery, for BEV (best in class
BMS, electric powertrain NVH behaviour)
control unit, range extender
R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018 © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 8„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“ Agenda Introduction Drivers and challenges towards an electrified future of mobility FEV powertrain topology forecast 2030 Influence on automakers and suppliers R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018 © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 9
„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“
Different factors drive the shift towards an electrified future;
automakers and suppliers will have to adapt their business models
FACTORS AND THEIR IMPACT ON E-MOBILITY
More stringent CO2 fleet targets Currently hesitating
Tightening emission targets Purchase barriers being reduced
Local access limitations (infrastructure, additional costs)
Promotion of e-mobility (e.g. Political- Increasing experience and
purchase incentives, tax bene- regulatory Consumer recommendation of e-mobility
fits, privileges in road traffic) environment behavior New mobility concepts will
change consumer behavior
Investment
and
Increasing invest in e-mobility by Future
financing
governments and OEMs strategies of
pattern E-Mobility
Decreasing invest for OEMS
conventional powertrains Almost all OEMs expand their
Reluctance in terms of financing number of electric vehicle models
Technology
conventional technology development Differentiation from competitors
Opportunities for new players
Development of new business
Range increase and cost reduction models necessary
with next generation batteries
Fast charging makes usage attractive
ADAS fosters e-business models
R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018 © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 10„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“
All major automotive markets are heavily investing in charging infra-
structure with China taking the lead; still significant investments required
# TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT
PUBLIC CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT
+117.0% 141k
+63.7% 111k
Status quo
+33.7% 69k 59k
32k 40k 41k 30k
23k
2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016
No major US subsidy Subsidy programs support China severely invests in
programs for charging the extension of European public charging
infrastructure charging infrastructure infrastructure
Outlook
Target for 2020*: 650,000 China announced to install
Large potential for
(Projection for 2020 is 4.8 m charging stations by
charging stations at
based on country specific 2020 (incl. private
shopping centers and
sales targets) households) to meet
malls
ambitious BEV targets
*2020 projection based on individual targets of Germany, England, France, Italy, Spain, Poland, Austria
Publicly accessible slow & fast chargers
Source: ReportsnReports, European Alternative Fuels Observatory EAFO 2017, International Energy Agency, AHK/VDI/VDE/IT, FEV
R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018 © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 11„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“
The decrease of battery costs is major enabler for an increased market
relevance for electrified and electric vehicles
# TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT
FEV BATTERY COST FORECAST (LARGE VOLUME SCENARIO)
Cell costs Pack costs Key assumptions
400 400
in €/kWh in €/kWh EV PHEV
360
350 350 Li-Ion
PHEV PHEV Battery
After 2025: Li-Ion
technology*
EV EV solid state, Li-S
300 300
External studies / External studies / 2015: 200 2015: 150
x publications (EV) x publications (EV) Cell energy
255 2020: 250 2020: 200
density
250 250 2025: 300 2025: 230
225 [Wh/kg]
2030: >400 2030: 250
200
200 200 c rate** 1–3 5 – 10
165
150 Typical battery
60 – 80 kWh 10 – 15 kWh
150 140 150 capacity
170 110 155
100 Cost factor:
2015: 1.5 2015: 1.8
100 100 2020: 1.4 2020: 1.6
110 pack to cell
105 2025: 1.3 2025: 1.5
90 costs***
2030: 1.3 2030: 1.5
80
50 70 50 * Costs apply to prismatic, pouch, cylindrical cells
PowereMotor [kW]
** c rate (discharge) =
0 0 Capacitybattery [kWh]
2015 2020 2025 2030 2015 2020 2025 2030 *** battery pack costs include battery cooling,
housing and battery management system
Source: FEV
R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018 © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 12„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“ Agenda Introduction Drivers and challenges towards an electrified future of mobility FEV powertrain topology forecast 2030 Influence on automakers and suppliers R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018 © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 13
„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“
CO2 emission of new vehicle registrations in EU market are at 118 g/km in
2016, reduction of 20% has to be achieved to realize the target for 2021
FLEET-AVERAGE PASSENGER CAR CO2-EMISSION BY AUTOMAKER1 IN EUROPE
180
CY 2016 provisional data
160
CO2 emission in g/km
140 KIA
JLR
120
100
-26% AVERAGE
80 -21%
60 -16%
40
1.000 1.100 1.200 1.300 1.400 1.500 1.600 1.700 1.800 1.900 2.000
1considering
2new
manufacturer pooling;
provision expected as WLTP will be applied after 2021
Average fleet weight in kg
Source: EEA (provisional EU-28 data for 2016); FEV
R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018 © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 14„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“
To achieve upcoming fuel economy targets automakers have to evaluate
different powertrain types based on their CO2 benefit and market potential
TRADE-OFF BETWEEN POWERTRAIN TYPES
CO2 emission in g/km
Stop/
Base1 90
start
# MHEV EQUIVALENT
8% CO2 reduction is
MHEV -8% considered 1 “MHEV
83
48V equivalent (ME)”
MHEV MHEV
Powertrain
type
options “By selling 2.5 MHEVs an OEM
HEV 72 -20% can spare sale of 1 HEV to
HEV MHEV achieve equal average CO2”
“By selling 9 MHEVs an OEM
can spare sale of 1 PHEV to
PHEV2 27 -70% achieve equal average CO2”
PHEV MHEV
1:
Compact Car segment; 2: 50km electric range, 9kWh battery capacity
Source: FEV
R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018 © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 15„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“
For the European market FEV expects a major shift towards plug-vehicles,
the final distribution will mainly depend on customer preferences
FUTURE POWERTRAIN SCENARIOS PASSENGER CAR
FEV Scenario – most likely Scenario 1: “BEV break-through” Scenario 2: “PHEV”
100% 4% 5% 5%
18%
92%
80% 39% 93% electrified 90%
51% electrified drives 46% electrified
drives 56% drives
60% 84% 84% 84%
78%
33% 8%
40% 7% 2%
7% 24%
13%
3%
20% 13% 26%
5% 21% 22% 27% 10%
2% 2% 5% 5% 13%
2% 10% w/o
2% ICE w/o
2% ICE
2% 2% 3% w/o ICE
3% 3% 1% 3% 1% 3%
0%
0% 2% 3% 3% 5%
2016 2020 2025 2030 2025 2030 2025 2030
CO2 fleet
emission:„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“ Agenda Introduction Drivers and challenges towards an electrified future of mobility FEV powertrain topology forecast 2030 Influence on automakers and suppliers R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018 © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 17
„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“
Approx. 1,400 conventional powertrain components with a whole vehicle
value share of ~30% will be replaced by new e-components
CHALLENGES FOR THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY
red = omitted; blue = modified for fully electric drive
Source: Auto Bild Dauertest, FEV
R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018 © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 18„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“ The powertrain of fully electric vehicles will be much less complex – ICE components will completely be omitted Modification / changes within the powertrain in the CONVENTIONAL HYBRID FULLY ELECTRIC upcoming years until 2025/2030 Base engine (Crankcase, cylinder head, crankshaft, Modified / Downsized Modified / Downsized n/a connecting rod, camshaft, valves, etc.) Fuel system (Injectors, fuel pump, rails, fuel tank system, Modified Modified n/a hoses, filters, etc.) Boosting and exhaust system (Turbocharger, exhaust manifold, catalysts, Modified Modified n/a filters, sensors, exhaust pipe system, etc.) Starter and generator Modified Modified n/a Transmission, clutch Modified Modified Modified / n/a Cooling fan, water pump, air conditioning, etc. Modified Modified Modified Electric motor - New New Battery system - New New Power electronics - New New Source: FEV R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018 © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 19
„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“
Automakers maintain their contribution in E-powertrains when entering the
battery business; mechanical part suppliers are highly challenged
CONTRIBUTION OF DIFFERENT MARKET PLAYERS TO MILD HYBRID AND ELECTRIC POWERTRAINS
2027 48 V mild hybrid 2027 base BEV BEV vs. 48 V MHEV
(powertrain only) (powertrain only) (value chain transformation)
OEM -3%
12%
3% 26% 29% Supplier
32% -45%
(mech. parts, others)
EUR EUR
5,072 5,231 Supplier +33%
(battery)
9%
54% Supplier +14%
36% (E-motor, PWT electronics & E/E)
OEM
Supplier (mechanical parts, others)
Supplier (battery)
Supplier (E-motor, PWT electronics & E/E)
Source: FEV
R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018 © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 20„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“
„E-Mobilität aus der Region Aachen“
Prepared for E-MOBILITÄT:
IHK Aachen DER ANTRIEB IM TECHNOLOGISCHEN WANDEL
Aachen, April 12th 2018
Rüdiger Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH
© by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third partiesYou can also read
