COVID-19 Health & Wellbeing Board Briefing - Southwark's Outbreak Prevention & Control Plan
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COVID-19 Health & Wellbeing Board Briefing Southwark’s Outbreak Prevention & Control Plan Knowledge & Intelligence Team Southwark Public Health Division 9 June 2021
Cases have risen sharply across London, but bed
occupancy and mortality remain stable
KEY MESSAGES
Cases are on the rise across London, with most boroughs experiencing significant
increases in their incidence rates in the past week.
Southwark had 186 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the week up to 3 June.
Across London, most boroughs now have rates above 25 per 100,000; eight boroughs
including Southwark have rates above 50 per 100,000.
The increasing spread of Variants of Concern (VOC) remain a risk in relation to transmission
and immune escape. Across London, there continues to be steep increases of the B.1.617.2
variant (first identified in India). This is known as Delta variant.
The number of NHS hospital inpatients with COVID-19 symptoms is still stable.
Across the capital, around 250 hospital inpatients have confirmed COVID-19, with around
40 of these occupying mechanical ventilation beds.
Coverage of the COVID-19 vaccine continues to increase across priority groups, and is
comparable to similar boroughs such as Lambeth.
Over 138,000 Southwark GP-registered patients have received their first dose vaccine.
Almost 82,000 have received their second dose.
Significant inequalities remain between ethnic minority groups, with coverage lowest among
those from a Black Caribbean background.
Geographically, coverage is lowest in Peckham and highest in Dulwich Village.
Slide 2Confirmed case numbers have risen sharply in the past week,
both locally and across London
CASES
Cases are rising rapidly across London, with most boroughs experiencing significant
increases in their incidence rates in the past week.
Southwark’s 7-day incidence to 3 June stands at 58 per 100,000, more than doubling
(130%) in the past week. This equates to 186 confirmed cases.
London’s 7-day incidence stands at 44 per 100,000, increasing by more than half (57%) in
the past week; and across London, 28 of the 32 boroughs now have rates above 25 per
100,000; with eight boroughs having rates above 50 per 100,000.
Nationally, cases have increased by half (51%) in the past week, with England’s 7 day
incidence rate now standing at 43 per 100,000,
Figure 1: Weekly incidence rate per 100,000 population Figure 2: Weekly incidence rate per 100,000 population, since 1 April
1200 70
1000 60
58
50
800 44
40
600 43
30
400 20
200 10
0 0
01/04/2021
03/04/2021
05/04/2021
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29/04/2021
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29/05/2021
31/05/2021
02/06/2021
01/07/2020
15/07/2020
29/07/2020
12/08/2020
26/08/2020
09/09/2020
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10/03/2021
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05/05/2021
19/05/2021
Southwark England London Southwark England London
References
1. PHE Regional Situation Awareness Report. Data to 3 Jun. Slide 3The overall case completion rate for Southwark remained
high throughout May
CONTACT TRACING
NHS Test & Trace data enables monitoring of COVID-19 spread through the testing of
suspected cases and tracing of recent close contacts.
The overall case completion rate for Southwark is made up by the follow-up rates of the local
and national teams, and the rates of case auto-completion of the online contact tracing form.
Contact tracing figures are now being monitored on a monthly basis, due to the volatility of
the weekly figures while referrals are very low.
Average completion figures for national and local contact tracing throughout May:
85% of cases were completed; compared to 88% for London as a whole.
Figure 3: Overall monthly case completion rates (%)
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
October November December January February March April May
Southwark London Lambeth Lewisham
Reference
1. PHE. London contract tracing weekly outcome reports. Data to 26 May. Slide 4At our local trusts, the number of NHS hospital inpatients
with COVID-19 is declining
SECONDARY CARE
Data on local hospitals’ confirmed COVID-19 admissions and inpatient diagnoses are
provided by NHS situation reports.
In the last week, combining new admissions and in-patient diagnoses, there have been:
5 cases at GSTT, and 11 cases at KCH-DH.
There are currently 6 confirmed COVID-19 patients at GSTT, and 22 at KCH-DH.
Across London, there are 247 patients in hospital with COVID-19, comparable to numbers last
seen in late September. Of these patients, 41 are on mechanical ventilation beds in critical care.
Figure 4: Bed occupancy with COVID-19 diagnosis
500 500
GSTT KCH-DH
450 450
400 400
350 350
300 300
250 250
200 200
150 150
100 100
50 50
0 0
24/03/2020
07/04/2020
21/04/2020
05/05/2020
19/05/2020
02/06/2020
16/06/2020
30/06/2020
14/07/2020
28/07/2020
11/08/2020
25/08/2020
08/09/2020
22/09/2020
06/10/2020
20/10/2020
03/11/2020
17/11/2020
01/12/2020
15/12/2020
29/12/2020
12/01/2021
26/01/2021
09/02/2021
23/02/2021
09/03/2021
23/03/2021
06/04/2021
20/04/2021
04/05/2021
18/05/2021
01/06/2021
24/03/2020
07/04/2020
21/04/2020
05/05/2020
19/05/2020
02/06/2020
16/06/2020
30/06/2020
14/07/2020
28/07/2020
11/08/2020
25/08/2020
08/09/2020
22/09/2020
06/10/2020
20/10/2020
03/11/2020
17/11/2020
01/12/2020
15/12/2020
29/12/2020
12/01/2021
26/01/2021
09/02/2021
23/02/2021
09/03/2021
23/03/2021
06/04/2021
20/04/2021
04/05/2021
18/05/2021
01/06/2021
References
1. SEL Early Warning report. Data to 7 June. Slide 5
2. Coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare. Data to 4 June.Over 138,300 people registered with a Southwark GP have
received their first dose vaccination
FIRST DOSE VACCINATION COVERAGE – 3 JUN & 31 MAY
Southwark GP-registered patients’ first-dose coverage is slowly increasing across the
initial priority groups, but more rapidly in those groups newly added to the roll-out.
Figure 5 and 6: First dose vaccination rates in Southwark, Lambeth and SEL GP patients, by high-priority group, plus unvaccinated
number
100% 88% 89% 89%
81% 84% 82% 80% 82% 81% 82% 80%
78% 76% 73% 79% 76%
75% 73%
71% 67% 69%
75% 61% 58%
66%
50% 37%
41% 42%
25%
0%
30-39 40-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+
100% 92% 93%
87%
82% 79% 79% 80%
78% 76%
75%
50%
25%
0%
CEV Older care NHS & SCW
home residents
Southwark Lambeth SEL
References
1. NHSE. NIMS data. Headline for all Southwark-GP-registered patients, data to 6 Jun. Other data is for higher priority,
local-GP-registered patients or workers, living anywhere, data to 3 Jun. Slide 6
2. ADASS & DHSC. Market Intelligence Tool Capacity Tracker, care homes vaccination data to 31 May.First dose vaccination rates among high priority non-White
patients are comparable to Lambeth and SEL levels
FIRST DOSE VACCINATION COVERAGE – HIGH PRIORITY ETHNICITY, 3 JUN
Within broad ethnic categories, Southwark’s first-dose coverage among high-priority
GP-registered persons is comparable to Lambeth and South East London levels.
People aged 65 and over and those who are clinically extremely vulnerable (CEV) are high
priority groups for vaccination.
The below data is for local-GP-registered populations (living anywhere).
Figure 7: First dose vaccination rates in high-priority Southwark, Lambeth and SEL GP patients, by main ethnic group
100% 93%
89% 87%
85% 86%
81%
73% 72% 72% 73% 71% 74% 74% 71% 75%
75% 65% 64% 65%
50%
25%
0%
Black African Black Caribbean Mixed Other Asian White
Southwark Lambeth SEL
Reference
1. NHSE. NIMS data portal. Data for local-GP-registered patients living anywhere; data to 3 Jun. Slide 7PHE use two main classifications for new COVID variants;
Variants of Concern and Variants Under Investigation
COVID VARIANTS
To date over 4,000 variants of SARS-CoV2 have been identified across the world. PHE
continue to monitor the emergence of new variants and use two key classifications:
Variant of Concern (VOC) Variant Under Investigation (VUI)
An increase in transmissibility A variant with mutations in which we have
A change in clinical presentation high confidence of significant change, but
A decrease in effectiveness of public not yet meeting criteria of VOC
health countermeasures Evidence of community transmission in the
UK or abroad
Alpha B.1.1.7 (UK): >240,000 confirmed Indian (B.1.617): 418 confirmed cases up
cases to 3 June.
Beta B.1351 (South Africa): >900 Insufficient data to confirm this is a VOC at
confirmed cases this point, but remains under investigation
Delta B.1.617.2 (India): >3,400 confirmed There are also a number of other VUI
cases being reviewed
Gamma P.1 (Brazil): 60 confirmed cases
References
1. PHE. Variants of concern or under investigation: data up to 3 Jun 2021.
Slide 8Delta variant cases are now making up an increasing
proportion of the cases seen across Southwark & London
CASE NUMBERS AND RATES
Delta variant case numbers have rapidly increased both locally and across London, and
are making up an increasing proportion of total cases.
In the week up to the 2 June, Delta variant numbers doubled in Southwark (103%), and
increased by three-quarters (75%) in London, and by 84% across England as a whole.
The time between when a case result is sequenced, and the presence of a variant is
confirmed, can be a lag of up to 14 days. Therefore, the true proportion of cases made up
by the Delta variant may be different than reported.
In the week to 1 May, the Delta variant made up just 6% of all cases in Southwark; in
comparison, Delta variant cases made up 40% of all cases in the week to 2 June.
Figure 8: Numbers of delta variant cases compared to numbers of all cases
200
40%
180
160
140
120
100
80 6%
60
40
20
0
01-May
02-May
03-May
04-May
05-May
06-May
07-May
08-May
09-May
10-May
11-May
12-May
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22-May
23-May
24-May
25-May
26-May
27-May
28-May
29-May
30-May
31-May
01-Jun
02-Jun
Number of all other cases Number of Delta variant cases
References
1. PHE. COVID-19 Situational Awareness (National report, 2 June 2021). Data to 2 Jun. Slide 9
2. PHE. COVID-19 Situational Awareness Explorer (COVID-19 variant line list data). Data to 2 Jun.Cases are rising sharply across London, with the R
number now between 1.0 – 1.2
HORIZON SCANNING
Indicators The alert level has been lowered to 3 “the virus is in general circulation”. ONS estimates that 1 in
580 people in London had COVID-19 in the week to 28 May. The national R number is currently
1.0–1.2, the same as London. This means the epidemic could either be flat, or growing slightly,
though clusters of new variants mean it is becoming more difficult to interpret R estimates.
Variant of Across London, there continues to be steep increases in confirmed cases of the Delta
Variant of Concern (B.1.617.2), first identified in India. Public Health England estimate
Concern
transmission rates for the variant to be roughly two-thirds higher than for the Kent variant,
and in many areas of the UK, this variant is replacing the Kent variant and dominating transmission.
Separate analysis looking at household infections put the variant at around 50% more transmissible.
Analysis by Public Health England has found both the Pfizer and AZ vaccines to be highly
effective against symptomatic disease from the Delta variant after two doses. However, after
just one dose, both vaccines were found to only be 34% effective against symptomatic disease from
the variant.
Key Latest ONS figures indicate that disparities similar to that observed in first dose vaccination
rates were also seen in second dose vaccination rates. For example, less advantaged socio-
Research
economic groups were less likely than their counterparts to continue to a second dose; and people
without English as their first language also had substantially lower rates of continuing to a second
dose, compared to native speakers.
COVID-19 Southwark has had 457 deaths related to COVID-19, with 3 deaths in the week up to
28 May. Overall, Southwark had 297 excess deaths in 2020, with an additional 107
Mortality
excess deaths in 2021.
Slide 10Find out more at southwark.gov.uk/publichealth Southwark Public Health Division
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