COVID-19 and the impact on vocational education and training - Dr. Tobias Maier Bilateral Technical Workshop Bonn/Virtuell, 2021
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
COVID-19 and the impact on vocational education and training
Dr. Tobias Maier
Bilateral Technical Workshop
Bonn/Virtuell, 2021
www.bibb.deVocational Education and Training (VET) in Germany
• The strength of a dual-corporatist apprenticeship system is seen in an
occupation specific training close to company needs.
• Advantage: Youth unemployment is low, because apprentices are
(mainly) trained for occupations, in which the economy sees the need
for skilled labour
• Disadvantage: The close linking of VET to the needs of the economy can
lead to fewer young people undergoing dual training in the event of an
economic crisis
www.bibb.deVocational Education and Training (VET) in Germany
• The strength of a dual-corporatist apprenticeship system is seen in an
occupation specific training close to company needs.
• Advantage: Youth unemployment is low, because apprentices are
(mainly) trained for occupations, in which the economy sees the need
for skilled laboor
• Disadvantage: The close linking of VET to the needs of the economy can
lead to fewer young people undergoing dual training in the event of an
economic crisis
How did the COVID-19 crisis affect the apprenticeship market?
What can we learn from it?
www.bibb.deThe apprenticeship market as of 30.09.2020
Actual value Actual value Change comp. with 2019
30.09.2019 30.09.2020
Absolut In %
Supply of apprenticeship places 578.2 527.4 -50.8 -8.8%
Unfilled apprenticeship places 53.1 59.9 +6.8 +12.8%
Demand for apprenticeship places
598.8 545.7 -53.1 -8.9%
(extended definition)
Unplaced applicants
73.7 78.2 +4.5 +6.1%
(with and without alternative as of 30.09.)
Supply-demand-relation
96.6 96.6 +0.0 +0.0%
(extended definition)
Newly concluded apprenticeship
525.1 467.5 -57.6 -11.0%
contracts
Source: Oeynhausen et al. (2020)
www.bibb.deLosers of the COVID-19 crisis
The low increase in unplaced applicants speaks for a good integration of the "system".
Estimated rates of unsuccessful demand depending on school leaving certificate, 2009 to 2020:
Losers: Event, gastronomy, hotel business, industry
and commerce
(e.g. tourism clerk, clerk for logistics services,
restaurant clerk, skilled worker in the hospitality
industry, hotel clerk, cutting machine operator)
"Winners": crafts and agriculture
(e.g. plant mechanic for sanitary, heating and air-
conditioning technology, painter and varnisher,
bricklayer, carpenter, road builder, gardener)
Low school leaving certificate Med. school leaving cert. Eligible for study
Source: Oeynhausen et al. (2020: p. 23-34) www.bibb.deEmployment and apprentices before the COVID-19 crisis
Development of establishment, employment and apprenticeship figures, 2007-2018 (2007 =100%)
• Decline in training activity is
highest among small
Employees
establishments
• Establishments justify the
Establishments
decline in training primarily
with recruitment difficulties,
small establishments also with
Apprentices rising costs for training
Establishments engaged in VET
Employees Establishments Apprentices Establishments engaged in VET
Source: Eckelt et al. (2020: S. 1)
www.bibb.deSchool leavers and newly concluded apprenticeship contracts 1992 to 2020
1000
School leavers
900
800 Projection of new contracts by
highest entry rate between 1992
in thousand
and 2009 (differ. by school
700
leaving certificate)
From here onwards projection
Projection of new contracts by
600 average entry rate between 2000
and 2009 (differ. by school
500
leaving certificate)
Actual development of newly
concluded apprenticeship
400
contracts (as of 31.12.)
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
year
Source: Maier. u.a. (2011) und Statistisches Bundesamt (2019): Berufsbildungsstatistik zum 31.12.; own
calculations www.bibb.deWhat can be expected in the future due to demographics?
1000
Forecast of school leavers
900
800
Newly concluded apprenticeship
in thousand
contracts as of 31.12.
700
From here onwards projection
600
New contracts according to
lowest entry rates by school
500 leaving certificate (2009-'19)
400 New contracts according to
highest entry rates by school
2024
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
leaving certificate (2009-'19)
year
Source: Kultusministerkonferenz (2020): Vorausberechnung der Schüler- und Absolventenzahlen 2019 bis 2030 (Dokumentation Nr. 224 vom November 2020).
DAZUBI – „Datenbank Auszubildende“ des BIBB auf Basis der Daten der Berufsbildungsstatistik der statistischen Ämter des Bundes und der Länder (Erhebung zum
www.bibb.de
31. Dezember); Eigene Berechnungen: Annahme Schülerinnen mit Schulabschluss aus dem Ausland oder ohne Angabe in Höhe von 10.000 pro JahrConclusion / Outlook
• The supply and demand for apprenticeship places are interdependent
• In times of economic crisis (COVID-19, financial crisis) potential demanders for
apprenticeship places also withdraw from the apprenticeship market (Maier
2020).
• The demographic trend has contributed to the declining participation of
establishments in VET in recent years.
• The number of newly concluded apprenticeship contracts can increase in the
long term if …
• … all school leavers can be increasingly integrated into in-company training again,
• … if the companies' participation in training is maintained!
(Matching problems or unfilled apprenticeship places must be accepted)
www.bibb.deThank you!
For questions: Tobias.maier@bibb.de
www.bibb.deLiterature
Eckelt, M.; Mohr, S.; Gerhards, C.; Burkard, C.: Rückgang der betrieblichen
Ausbildungsbeteiligung: Gründe und Unterstützungsmaßnahmen mit Fokus auf
Kleinstbetriebe. Bonn, 2020
Maier, Tobias: Auswirkungen der „Corona-Krise“ auf die duale Berufsausbildung (2020):
Risiken, Konsequenzen und Handlungsnotwendigkeiten. Version 1.0 Bonn, 2020
Maier, Tobias; Troltsch, Klaus; Walden, Günter (2011): Längerfristige Entwicklung der dualen
Ausbildung. Eine Projektion der neu abgeschlossenen Ausbildungsverträge bis zum Jahr 2020.
BWP 3/2011: S. 6-9
Oeynhausen, S.; Milde, B.; Ulrich, J. G.; Flemming, S.; Granath, R.-O. (2020): Die Entwicklung
des Ausbildungsmarktes im Jahr 2020. Analysen auf Basis der BIBB-Erhebung über neu
abgeschlossene Ausbildungsverträge und der Ausbildungsmarktstatistik der Bundesagentur
für Arbeit zum Stichtag 30. September. Bonn: Bundesinstitut für Berufsbildung
www.bibb.deYou can also read
