Core Political Data Ipsos Poll Conducted for Thomson Reuters

Ipsos Poll Conducted for Thomson Reuters

 Core Political Data
 MARCH 4, 2020

 © 2020 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written
 consent of Ipsos.

© 2020 Ipsos 1

IPSOS POLL CONDUCTED FOR REUTERS
Core Political Data

 These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted
 for date

 March 2-3, 2020

 For the survey,
 a sample of including ages

 943 465 357 82
 1,115 Registered Democratic Republican Independent
 18+
 Americans Voters Registered Registered Registered
 Voters Voters Voters
 were interviewed online

© 2020 Ipsos 2

IPSOS POLL CONDUCTED FOR REUTERS
Core Political Data

The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval.

In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus the following percentage points

 3.3 3.6 5.2 5.9 12.3

 All Adults All Registered Democratic Republican Independent
 Voters Registered Voters Registered Voters Registered Voters

For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.

© 2020 Ipsos 3

IPSOS POLL CONDUCTED FOR REUTERS
Core Political Data
• The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by:
 – Gender
 – Age
 – Education
 – Ethnicity
 – Region

• Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls.
• All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement
 error.
• Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent.
• Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.

• To see more information on this and other Reuters/Ipsos polls, please visit: http://polling.reuters.com/

© 2020 Ipsos 4

ALL ADULT AMERICANS
Right Direction/Wrong Track

Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong
track?

 12% 8% 6% 8%
 33% 36%
 All Democratic
 Right Direction All Adults Registered Registered
 Voters Voters
 Wrong Track 56%
 55%
 86%

 Don’t know 6% 16% 24%
 22%
 Republican Independent
 Registered Registered
 Voters Voters
 72%
 60%
© 2020 Ipsos 5

ALL ADULT AMERICANS
Most Important Problem Facing America

In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the U.S. today?
 Democratic Republican Independent
 All Adults All Registered Voters
 Registered Voters Registered Voters Registered Voters
 Economy generally 13% 14% 13% 17% 10%
 Unemployment / lack of jobs 6% 5% 4% 5% 11%
 War / foreign conflicts 3% 3% 3% 3% 1%
 Immigration 12% 13% 4% 25% 10%
 Terrorism / terrorist attacks 4% 4% 3% 7% 5%
 Healthcare 25% 26% 34% 16% 29%
 Energy issues 1% 0% 0% 1% 0%
 Morality 8% 7% 6% 8% 9%
 Education 4% 4% 6% 2% 5%
 Crime 5% 5% 4% 6% 2%
 Environment 6% 7% 11% 4% 5%
 Other 8% 8% 10% 5% 11%
 Don’t know 4% 2% 1% 2% 3%
© 2020 Ipsos 6

ALL ADULT AMERICANS
Most Important Problem Facing America

 Economy generally
In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the U.S. today? Unemployment / jobs
45% Healthcare
40% Terrorism
35% Immigration
30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

 5%

 0%
 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

© 2020 Ipsos 7

ALL ADULT AMERICANS
Donald Trump’s Approval

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?
Is that strongly (approve/disapprove) or somewhat (approve/disapprove)? (Asked of those who selected “approve” or “disapprove”)
Q2b. If you had to choose, do you lean more towards approve or disapprove? (Asked of those who selected “don’t know”)

 Democratic Republican Independent
 All Adults Registered Voters
 Registered Voters Registered Voters Registered Voters
 Strongly approve 22% 24% 2% 53% 12%
 Somewhat approve 18% 19% 6% 32% 20%
 Lean towards approve 2% 2% 1% 2% 2%
 Lean towards disapprove 2% 2% 2% 1% 2%
 Somewhat disapprove 13% 12% 15% 6% 23%
 Strongly disapprove 38% 39% 72% 4% 38%
 Not sure 5% 2% 2% 1% 2%
 TOTAL APPROVE 42% 44% 9% 88% 34%
 TOTAL DISAPPROVE 53% 54% 89% 11% 64%

© 2020 Ipsos 8

20%
 30%
 50%
 60%
 70%

 10%
 40%

 0%
 Jan 20-24, 2017

© 2020 Ipsos
 Feb 10-14, 2017
 March 3-7, 2017
 March 24-28, 2017
 April 21-25, 2017
 May 12-16, 2017
 June 2-6, 2017
 June 21-27, 2017
 July 14-18, 2017
 ALL ADULT AMERICANS

 Aug 4-8, 2017
 Aug 25-29, 2017
 Sept 15-19, 2017
 Oct 6-10, 2017
 Oct 27-31, 2017
 Nov 17-21, 2017
 Dec 8-12, 2017
 Dec 29, 2017 - Jan 2,…
 Jan 19-23, 2018
 Feb 9-13, 2018
 March 2-6, 2018
 March 23-27, 2018
 April 13-17, 2018
 May 4-8, 2018
 May 25-29, 2018
 June 15-19, 2018
 July 6- 10, 2018
 Donald Trump’s Weekly Approval

 July 27-31, 2018
 August 15-21
 Sept 5-11, 2018
 Sept 26-Oct 2, 2018
 October 17-23, 2018
 November 14-20, 2018
 December 5-11, 2018
 December 26, 2018-…
 January 16-22, 2019
 February 6-13, 2019
 March 6 - 12, 2019
 March 26 - April 1, 2019
 April 17-23, 2019
 May 10-14, 2019
 May 29-June 5, 2019
 June 24-25, 2019
 Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?

 July 15-16, 2019
 August 1-5, 2019
 August 26-27, 2019
 Sept 16-17, 2019
 Oct 7-8, 2019
 Oct 28-29, 2019
 Nov 18-19, 2019
 Dec 9-10, 2019
 January 13-14, 2020
 February 3-4, 2020
 March 2-3, 2020
 53%
 42%

9

ALL ADULT AMERICANS
Issue Approval

Do you approve or disapprove about the way Donald Trump is handling the following issues?
 Lean Lean
 Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly Don’t TOTAL TOTAL
 towards towards
 approve approve disapprove disapprove know APPROVE DISAPPROVE
 approve disapprove
 The U.S. economy 25% 13% 13% 10% 11% 22% 7% 51% 42%
 U.S. foreign policy 19% 14% 10% 7% 10% 28% 11% 43% 46%
 Healthcare reform 14% 13% 11% 10% 11% 32% 9% 38% 53%
 Employment and jobs 25% 15% 13% 10% 10% 19% 8% 53% 39%
 Dealing with Congress 18% 12% 9% 8% 12% 32% 9% 40% 52%
 International trade 21% 12% 11% 9% 10% 25% 11% 45% 43%
 Taxation 15% 14% 11% 12% 9% 29% 10% 40% 50%
 Corruption 16% 12% 8% 10% 8% 37% 10% 36% 54%
 The environment 13% 13% 11% 10% 8% 36% 9% 37% 54%
 Immigration 23% 13% 8% 7% 7% 35% 6% 45% 49%
 The way he treats people like me 17% 11% 8% 9% 7% 40% 8% 36% 55%
The effort he is making to unify the country 16% 13% 10% 8% 9% 38% 6% 39% 54%
 Russia 15% 14% 9% 8% 8% 33% 13% 38% 50%
 Iran 20% 12% 10% 10% 10% 26% 12% 42% 46%
 China 17% 14% 11% 9% 12% 24% 13% 42% 45%
© 2020 Ipsos 10

ALL ADULT AMERICANS
Political Identity
With which political party do you most identify?

 Strong Democrat 12%
 Moderate Democrat 16%
 Lean Democrat 14%
 Lean Republican 11%
 Moderate Republican 13%
 Strong Republican 12%
 Independent 13%
 Other/Don't know/Refused 9%
 Democrat 28%
 Party ID
 Republican 25%
 Democrat 42%
 Party ID w/ Lean
 Republican 36%
 Independent 13%
 Other/None/Don't know 9%

© 2020 Ipsos 11

APPENDIX
How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals
 The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribution conditioned on the
 parameter θ\, i.E., Y|θ~bin(n,θ), where n is the size of our sample. In this setting, Y counts the number
 of “yes”, or “1”, observed in the sample, so that the sample mean ( ) ത is a natural estimate of the true
 population proportion θ. This model is often called the likelihood function, and it is a standard concept
 in both the bayesian and the classical framework. The bayesian 1 statistics combines both the prior
 distribution and the likelihood function to create a posterior distribution.

 The posterior distribution represents our opinion about which are the plausible values for θ adjusted
 after observing the sample data. In reality, the posterior distribution is one’s knowledge base updated
 using the latest survey information. For the prior and likelihood functions specified here, the posterior
 
 distribution is also a beta distribution (π( )~β(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters.
 
 Our credibility interval for θ is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals
 represent our belief about which are the most plausible values for θ given our updated knowledge base.
 
 There are different ways to calculate these intervals based on π ( ). Since we want only one measure of
 
 precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to what is done within the classical framework, we will
 compute the largest possible credibility interval for any observed sample. The worst case occurs when
 we assume that a=1 and b=1 and y=n/2. Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the normal
 1
 distribution, the 95% credibility interval is given by, approximately: ഥ ∓
 
© 2020 Ipsos 12

APPENDIX
How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals
FOR THIS POLL
The Bayesian credibility interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for complex
weighting2
Examples of credibility intervals for different base sizes are below:

 CREDIBILITY
 SAMPLE SIZE INTERVALS
 2,000 2.5
 1,500 2.9
 1,000 3.5
 Ipsos does not publish data
 for base sizes
 750 4.1
 (sample sizes) below 100. 500 5.0
 350 6.0
 200 7.9
 100 11.2
 1 Bayesian Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC | ISBN: 158488388X | 2003
 2 Kish, L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200.

© 2020 Ipsos 13

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© 2020 Ipsos 14