The Impact of COVID-19 on 2020 Politics: Swing State Voters' Views on Re-opening, Testing, Bailouts, and the Elections - May 7-11, 2020 - Council ...
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The Impact of COVID-19 on 2020 Politics:
Swing State Voters’ Views on Re-opening, Testing, Bailouts,
and the Elections
May 7-11, 2020
phone: 703.836.7666 | web: northstaropinion.comMethodology • Survey conducted May 7-11, 2020. • 1000 registered voters interviewed online in 14 swing states: AZ, CO, FL, GA, IA, ME, MI, MN, NV, NH, NM, PA, OH, & WI. • Sample is an online panel, matched to voter file. • Overall quotas set for state, gender, race/ethnicity, education, and age to reflect past participation. • Margin of error for the full sample is ±3.1%.
I. Political Overview: Swing state voters largely agree with the country on the direction of the country and presidential ballot.
Democrats are slightly more likely than Republicans to
say they are “absolutely certain” to vote in November.
How likely would you say you are to vote in the next presidential election in 2020: absolutely certain, very likely, somewhat likely,
or not too likely?
Absolutely Certain Very Likely Somewhat/Not/Depends
82% 83% 85%
79%
11% 7% 12% 12% 10% 8% 7%
5%
All Rep Ind DemA majority of voters says the country is off
on the wrong track.
Overall, would you say the United States is heading in the right direction, or have things gotten off on the wrong track?
Right Direction Wrong Track
87%
69%
57% 59%
34%
30%
21%
8%
All Rep Ind DemJoe Biden currently leads Donald Trump by 6 points
in these swing states; independents are split.
If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were (ROTATE: Joe Biden, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the
Republican), for which candidate would you vote?
Biden Trump Undecided
86% 88%
47%
41% 41% 38%
21%
11% 7% 7% 7% 6%
All Rep Ind DemCoronavirus is an important issue in voters’ choice for
President, but the single most important issue for just a few.
How important will your view on who can best handle the health and economic impacts of the coronavirus pandemic be to deciding your
vote for President: the single most important factor, one of several important factors, or a not very important factor?
Single Most Important One of Several Important Not Very Important Don't Know
75% 78%
73% 74%
10% 9% 6% 10% 10% 7% 11% 10% 6% 10% 7% 4%
All Rep Ind DemII. Attitudes on Pandemic Response: Public Health v. Economy
Political views are so hardened that even an economic and
public health crisis caused by a pandemic does little to soften
them.
Voters want targeted help, not open-ended bailouts of states.A majority of voters is very concerned about the effect of
the pandemic, with Democrats much more intense.
How concerned are you about the effect of the coronavirus pandemic on the United States: very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too
concerned, or not at all concerned?
Very Concerned Somewhat Concerned Not Too Concerned Not At All Concerned
73%
57% 56%
46%
39%
34% 33%
24%
6% 9% 6% 3%
2% 5% 2% 0%
All Rep Ind DemVoters are concerned about both economic and health impacts,
with independents slightly more concerned about the economic impact.
Are you more concerned about (ROTATE: the health impacts or the economic impacts) of the coronavirus pandemic?
Health Impacts Economic Impacts Both
58% 58% 62%
53%
37%
29%
23%
19% 21% 17%
8% 8%
All Rep Ind DemVoters split on the federal government’s response to the health
impacts of the pandemic, with Republicans approving …
Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the federal government’s response to the
health impacts of the coronavirus pandemic?
Approve Disapprove
74% 72%
50% 52%
45%
41%
23% 24%
All Rep Ind Dem… but all groups approve of the federal government’s
economic policies to help during the shutdown.
Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the federal government’s economic policies
to help businesses and individuals during the coronavirus shutdown?
Approve Disapprove
80%
62%
56%
52%
42%
38%
33%
16%
All Rep Ind DemVoters want targeted help for the states,
not an open-ended bailout.
As you may know, state governments have collected less sales and income tax revenue over the last few months due to the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus
pandemic. Which of the following approaches would you prefer for the federal government to take regarding helping states:
a) The federal government should provide states whatever money they need to meet their current budget obligations.
b) The federal government should provide states only enough money to cover the revenue losses caused by the coronavirus.
c) The federal government should provide states with only the money they need to fight the coronavirus and shouldn’t fund unrelated state programs.
d) The federal government should not provide any additional money to the states.
$ to Meet Obligations $ Only for Losses $ Only to Fight Virus No Additional $ Don't Know
44%
35%
29% 28%
26%
23% 23% 22% 22%
19% 18%
16% 17%
14% 15% 14%
13%
9% 10%
4%
All Rep Ind DemIII. Re-opening, Testing, and Liability:
On-site screening, and the concern about liability
that goes with it, is an emerging issue - perhaps
even more important than testing.Republicans and Democrats differ sharply on the rate of
re-opening the country.
Generally speaking, do you think that plans to re-open businesses and social gatherings in America are moving too quickly, at about the
right pace, or not quickly enough?
Too Quickly About Right Not Quickly Enough
73%
50% 51%
40%
31%
27% 25% 25%
17% 18% 19%
5%
All Rep Ind DemPartisans are split on when to re-open, while
independents favor opening.
Which statement comes closer to your view:
a) Businesses and social gatherings should wait to re-open until there is no longer any risk of catching and spreading the coronavirus.
b) We need to minimize risks by taking measures like social distancing and wearing masks, but the economy cannot stay closed for much longer.
Wait to Re-Open Economy Cannot Stay Closed Don't Know
76%
68%
49% 49%
45%
41%
26%
21%
6% 9%
4% 5%
All Rep Ind DemVoters split between statewide testing and
on-site screening.
What type of coronavirus testing would make you feel most comfortable about resuming normal activities outside of your home:
a) Testing that gives me a general sense of how widespread the virus is in my county and state.
b) Regular testing of people at the schools, restaurants, and businesses I frequently visit.
State/County Testing On-site Screening Don't Know
44% 43% 42%
41% 39%
37% 38% 36%
25%
20% 20%
15%
All Rep Ind DemVoters strongly favor a temporary and targeted ban on
lawsuits against establishments that require coronavirus tests.
Many establishments are concerned about testing employees or customers because they are worried about getting sued by people who test positive, or people who are denied
entry or service for refusing to be tested. Would you support or oppose a temporary and targeted ban on lawsuits against establishments that require coronavirus tests?
Support Oppose Don't Know
58% 59% 59% 58%
24% 25% 22% 25%
18% 19% 17%
16%
All Rep Ind DemIV. Voters’ Concerns
Worries about losing health insurance coverage, and
uncertainty about the best government actions,
provide a policy opening.Two-fifths of voters with private insurance are concerned
that they could lose their coverage in the next two years …
How concerned are you that you personally could lose your health insurance coverage in the next two years: very concerned, somewhat
concerned, not too concerned, or not at all concerned?
Very Concerned Somewhat Concerned Not Too Concerned Not At All Concerned
32%
25% 25%
15%
Privately Insured Voters (n=567)… and nearly half of all voters are concerned that someone
close to them might lose their coverage in the next two years.
How concerned are you that someone close to you such as a family member or friend could lose their health insurance coverage in the
next two years: very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned, or not at all concerned?
Very Concerned Somewhat Concerned Not Too Concerned Not At All Concerned
29% 29%
18% 19%
AllVoters are all over the map on assistance to the recently uninsured,
with a plurality favoring a Medicaid option and nearly one-third unsure.
Which of the following government policies do you think would most help workers who have recently lost their health insurance: (RANDOMIZE)
a) Have the federal government pay the monthly premiums for unemployed people who want to keep the health insurance coverage they had through their employer.
b) Have the federal government allow unemployed people to get insurance through Medicaid, the health insurance program for low-income people.
c) Have the federal government cover the monthly premiums for unemployed people who want to get health insurance coverage created by the Affordable Care Act or ObamaCare.
Pay Premiums for Employer Plan Insurance through Medicaid Pay ACA Premiums Don't Know
41% 40%
31% 31% 33% 33%
30%
22% 20% 20% 22% 22%
16% 17% 16%
7%
All Rep Ind DemV. Technology and Privacy:
Contact tracing faces an uncertain future in the face of privacy
concerns.
Any effort to collect or share patient data, including testing, must
be led by health care providers and the health care community.Doctors and hospitals are the priority for
having access to accurate testing data.
For each of the following, please indicate if it is very important, somewhat important, or not too important that they know
which patients test positive and have been treated for coronavirus at other medical locations:
Very Important Somewhat Important Not Too Important
Hospitals 82% 12% 3%
Doctors 81% 13% 3%
Government Health Agencies
like the CDC 67% 23% 6%
Pharmacists 51% 32% 13%Even in a pandemic, voters only narrowly value a better
and faster response over privacy …
Which of the following statements comes closer to your view:
a) I would rather protect the privacy of my health care data, even if that makes it harder for public health officials, doctors, and hospitals to track and prevent the spread of
coronavirus.
b) I would rather have a better and faster response to track and prevent the spread of coronavirus, even if that means fewer privacy protections for my health care data.
Protect Privacy Better Response Don't Know
54%
50%
46% 45%
42% 43%
38%
34%
12% 12% 12% 12%
All Rep Ind Dem… but are more concerned that we will not go far enough in
protecting patient privacy in our response to the pandemic.
Which concerns you more about health care privacy and coronavirus:
a) We will go too far in protecting patient privacy and the health care crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic will get worse.
b) We will not go far enough in protecting patient privacy and risk exposing peoples’ most personal information.
Go Too Far Not Go Far Enough Don't Know
51%
47% 47%
43%
37%
33% 34%
28%
20% 21% 20% 20%
All Rep Ind DemVoters overwhelmingly think health care providers should have access to their
personal health information, and overwhelmingly think technology companies
should not.
For each of the following, please indicate if that group should or should not have access to your personal health information:
Should Should Not
Health Care Providers 86% 8%
Health Insurance Plans 58% 31%
Government Health Agencies
like Medicare/Medicaid/CDC 54% 34%
Medical Researchers 47% 38%
Technology Companies 11% 78%Consequently, a plurality opposes technology companies
developing coronavirus tracking software.
Would you support or oppose technology companies developing software that allows cell phones to track people who have tested positive for coronavirus and alerting people
they may have come into contact with?
Support Oppose Don't Know
57%
50%
47%
40% 39%
33% 31%
28%
19% 20% 21%
15%
All Rep Ind DemMoving Forward: 1. Litigation protections are a priority, as testing becomes “screening.” 2. Targeted state bailouts. 3. Advance protections for recently uninsured - for supporters of employer coverage, it’s more urgent to make the case against Medicaid than ObamaCare. 4. Data solutions must be focused on health care providers.
Survey of Swing State Registered Voters
May 7-11, 2020
phone: 703.836.7666 | web: northstaropinion.comYou can also read
