Commodity Weekly (Agri) - Index June 24, 2019 - Sharekhan, Commodity
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Commodity Weekly (Agri)
June 24, 2019
Index
News highlights
Price performance
Maize
Turmeric
Mentha oil
Visit us at www.sharekhancommodity.com
For Private Circulation onlySharekhan Comtrade Commodity Weekly (Agri)
Kharif sowing complete at 90.62 lakh ha v/s 103.55 lakh ha last year, down by 12.49%
News highlights
• June 1-23 rains were 38% below normal
• SEBI allows exchanges to introduce futures on commodity indices
• 84% of meteorological subdivisions record deficit rainfall: IMD
• Farmer associations urge government to declare drought-hit districts immediately
• Marathwada agri university releases first public sector Bt cotton hybrid seed variety
• Rains in Gujarat due to Cyclone Vayu boost prospects of groundnut sowing
• Fall armyworm invades crops across Asia (Source: Reuters)
• Telangana releases new cotton variety
• Maharashtra slaps notice on farmers sowing HTBT seeds, arrests one
• CAB cuts 2018-19 cotton output estimate to 337 lakh bales
• Delayed monsoon not a concern as of now; Contingency plan ready: Government official
• US Completes 77% Soybean Planting Acreage - USDA
• Cardamom hits all time record high on severe crop shortage
• Saurashtra Oil Mills Association reiterates demand for export incentives on groundnut
• Maharashtra sugar output not to cross 64 lakh tonne (Source: Financial Express)
• Import duty on lentil increases by 20% to 50%
Price performance
Commodity Exchange Expiry 21-June 14-June % Change
Barley MCX July 1837.5 1864.5 (1.45)
Cotton MCX July 21620 21660 (0.18)
Castor NCDEX July 5386 5526 (2.53)
Chana NCDEX July 4247 4422 (3.96)
CPO MCX July 512.4 509.3 0.61
Cocud NCDEX July 2844.5 2847.5 (0.11)
Dhaniya NCDEX July 6959 7027 (0.97)
Guargum NCDEX July 8536 8582 (0.54)
Guarseed NCDEX July 4242 4251 (0.21)
Jeera NCDEX July 17315 17240 0.44
Maize NCDEX July 1997 1865 7.08
Mentha Oil MCX July 1269.6 1332.6 (4.73)
Ref Soy Oil NCDEX July 739.2 739.2 0.00
RM Seed NCDEX July 3924 3934 (0.25)
Soybean NCDEX July 3611 3704 (2.51)
Turmeric NCDEX July 6326 6642 (4.76)
Wheat NCDEX July 1973 1972 0.05
June 24, 2019 2Sharekhan Comtrade Commodity Weekly (Agri)
8.00 Weekly Perfomance (change in %)
7.08
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.61 0.44
0.05 0.00
0.00
(0.11) (0.18) (0.21) (0.25)
(0.54)
(0.97)
(2.00) (1.45)
(2.51) (2.53)
(4.00)
(3.96)
(4.73) (4.76)
(6.00)
Dhaniya
CPO
Cocud
Guarseed
Castor
Turmeric
Wheat
Cotton
Barley
Guargum
Soybean
Chana
Maize
Jeera
RM Seed
Mentha Oil
Ref Soy Oil
Source: MCX, NCDEX & Sharekhan Comtrade Research
Kharif crop sowing in India (Figs in lakh hectares)
Crop Area sown in 2018-19 Area sown in 2017-18 Change %
Rice 6.3 9.24 -31.82
Pulses 1.7 3.38 -49.70
Coarse Cereals 7.4 9.58 -22.76
Oilseeds 1.6 3.47 -53.89
Sugarcane 49.35 50.68 -2.62
Jute & Mesta 6.09 10.28 -40.76
Cotton 18.18 16.92 7.45
Total 90.62 103.55 -12.49
Source: Ministry of Agriculture
Maize
Maize July futures were the biggest gainers in the agricommodity basket last week. Prices opened last week at Rs. 1,878/
quintal which was also the lowest price point of the week. Prices have gained significantly during the week and touched a
new contract high of Rs. 2,007/quintal towards the end of the week. Prices closed 7.08% higher w-o-w at Rs. 1,997/quintal
compared to the previous week’s close of Rs. 1,865/quintal.
Maize prices gained last week on account of lower planting of maize. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, only 4.82
lakh hectares has been covered under maize compared to 6.2 lakh hectares during the same period a year ago, down
by about 22.26 percent. Concerns over delay in monsoon have also supported prices as it may affect the yield.
We expect maize to trade on a positive note. Lower sowing, delay in the progress of monsoon and good demand from the
feed industry may continue to support prices. However, prices are at contract highs, and thus, the demand may decline
at higher levels. Traders may also liquidate their stocks at higher levels.
June 24, 2019 3Sharekhan Comtrade Commodity Weekly (Agri) Turmeric Turmeric July futures were biggest losers in the agri commodity basket last week. Prices opened last week at Rs. 6,640/ quintal and touched a high of Rs. 6,700/quintal in the beginning of the week. However, prices declined during the week and touched a low of Rs. 6,304/quintal towards the end of the week. Prices closed 4.76% lower w-o-w at Rs. 6,326/quintal compared to the previous week’s close of Rs. 6,642/quintal. Turmeric prices declined last week on sufficient stocks in the spot markets and higher availability with traders. Expectations of bumper output in 2018-19 season also pressurized prices. Good sowing of turmeric and advancement of monsoon has kept prices under pressure. We expect turmeric to trade negative this week. Good pace of sowing and prospects of further advancement of monsoon may pressurize prices. Ample stocks may also pressurize prices. However, prices have declined sharply over the past few days and, thus, short coverings may be seen at lower levels. Any pickup in the demand from the overseas markets may support prices at lower levels.. Mentha oil Mentha oil July futures on MCX were the second biggest losers in the agri commodity basket last week. Prices opened last week at Rs. 1,348.60/kg and touched a high of Rs. 1,372.50/kg in the first half of the week. Prices declined during the week and touched a low of Rs. 1,265/kg towards the end of the week. Prices closed 4.73% lower w-o-w at Rs. 1,269.60/kg compared to the previous week’s close of Rs. 1,332.60/kg. Mentha oil prices remained under the grip of the bears last week on weak demand from the consuming industries and bulk consumers. Expectations of higher output also pressurized prices. We expect mentha oil to trade on a negative note. Expectations of higher sowing this year may keep prices under pressure. Weak demand from consuming industries may also pressurize prices. Running Calls Call Date Commodity Description 21-Jun-19 Dhaniya Fundamental Commodity Call: Sell NCDEX Dhaniya July at 6974, SL- 7140, Target- 6650 June 24, 2019 4
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