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Analysts' Ideas of the Week
Follow Capital Flows to Pick Winners
January 24, 2022
www.researchfrc.com
Page 2
FRC Top Picks
The following table shows last week’s top five performers among our Top Picks,
including four gold-silver, and one copper junior. The top performer, GR Silver Mining
Ltd. (TSXV: GRSL), was up 30.2%, amid bonanza-grade results from its drill program
in Mexico (mentioned in our last week’s report). Our prior reports can be viewed here.
Top Five Performers Last Week
Source: FRC
Companies in our Top Picks list were down 1.4% on average last week vs -5.1%
for the benchmark (TSXV). Our picks have outperformed the benchmark in six out of
the seven time periods presented below.
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Performance by Sector
Source: FRC
Our complete list of top picks (updated weekly) can be viewed here.
Weekly Mining Commentary
Global equity markets were down 5.1% last week (up 1.1% in the prior week) amid the
upcoming U.S. Fed meeting, and rising geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the
Middle East. The Bank of Canada is also meeting this Wednesday. We are expecting
hawkish comments from both central banks. Equity and bond prices tend to decline
when interest rates rise, and we expect capital to flow into financials, mortgage
investment corporations, and gold/silver in the near-term.
Source: FRC / Various
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On a positive note, Omicron is proving to be significantly less dangerous than the
previous variants, with fewer hospitalization and deaths as a percentage of total
infected. As a result, we are expecting global restrictions to ease in the coming weeks.
Last week, eight countries (previously 12) among the 15 nations with the most cases
experienced higher daily new cases. Nine countries (previously seven) experienced
WoW increases in deaths. Globally, 60.53% have received at least one dose, up 0.6
ppt WoW vs 0.7 ppt the same time last week. 78.20% of Canadians have had two
doses (0.3 ppt vs 0.4 ppt) vs 70.61% in the U.K. (0.4 ppt vs 0.3 ppt), and 63.13% in the
U.S. (0.7 ppt vs 0.4 ppt). 36% of Canadians (previously 32%), and 25% of
Americans (previously 24%) have received booster (third) doses.
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Source: Our World in Data / FRC
Metal prices advanced last week amid inflation and supply concerns. Nickel was the
best performer as inventory levels remain extremely low.
Source: FRC / Various
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Valuations of gold producers were flat (previously up 1%) last week; base metal
producers were down 4% (up 6%).
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We are maintaining our price forecasts.
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Updates from Resource Companies Under Coverage
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
GCM Mining TSX: GCM $5.34 $9.17
Corp.
PR Title FRC Opinion
Reports Q4 and full year 2021 production Positive – 2021 production (206 Koz gold)
beat our estimate by 1.6%. As Q4 gold
prices were approximately 1% below our
forecast, we are expecting revenue/EBITDA
to be more or less in line with our forecasts.
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Cartier TSXV: ECR $0.16 $0.46
Resources Inc.
News Title FRC Opinion
Cuts 27.4 g/t Au over 8.0 m on the Positive – Channel sampling results
Fenton property returned significantly higher gold grades
(27.4 g/t over 8 m, and 69.1 g/t Au over 2
m) than historical results. ECR is planning a
drill program. Note that Agnico Eagle
(NYSE: AEM) owns 16% of ECR.
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Sabre Gold TSX: SGLD $0.06 $0.37
Mines Corp.
PR Title FRC Opinion
Announces preliminary economic Positive – Positive PEA results from the
assessment results recently acquired Brewery Creek gold
project; An AT-NPV5% of US$112M (using
US$1,700/oz gold), and a high AT-IRR of
28% are highly encouraging, especially
considering that SGLD’s MCAP is just
$38M. Note that a PFS on SGLDs other
asset (Copperstone) had returned an AT-
NPV5% of US$53M at US$1,500/oz gold.
We will be publishing an update shortly.
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Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Golden Minerals NYSE: AUMN US$0.40 US$1.00
Corp.
PR Title FRC Opinion
Drills high-grade gold mineralization in Positive – The first drill program (10 holes
initial drilling at the Sarita Este project totalling 2,518 m) ever at Sarita Este
returned promising values. Our fair value
estimate does not account for any value on
this project as it is in pre-resource stage.
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Fortune Minerals TSX: FT $0.14 $0.54
Limited
PR Title FRC Opinion
Secures option to purchase brownfield Positive – This is a major milestone for FT;
site in Alberta’s industrial heartland for the purchase of a site with existing
NICO refinery infrastructure will be highly beneficial for
negotiating project financing. Note that
NICO (cobalt-gold-bismuth) is the largest
primary cobalt deposit in North America.
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Monarch Mining TSX: GBAR $0.66 $1.44
Corporation
PR Title FRC Opinion
High-grade gold mineralization near Positive – Continues to return high grade
surface at the Beaufor mine with 99.7 g/t values at shallow depths, implying resource
Au over 0.6 m (1.97 ft) expansion potential.
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Interra Copper CSE: IMCX $0.07 $0.42
Corp.
PR Title FRC Opinion
Reports further anomalous Cathedral Positive – Continues to return low-grade
main zone drill results mineralization but across thick intervals
(20.65 m, 17.30 m, and 36.71 m). This is a
positive sign for tonnage.
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Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Goldplay Mining TSXV: AUC $0.15 $0.38
Inc.
PR Title FRC Opinion
New orogenic gold discovery at the Positive – Very promising grab samples
Goldstorm south project, B.C. returns (21.8 g/t Au) from the newly discovered
21.8 g/t Au Travler gold vein system; medium to high
copper grades (0.44% to 1.77% Cu)
reported from the Fly porphyry prospect.
Management is planning a drill program this
year.
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Equity Metals TSXV: EQTY $0.13 $0.29
Corporation
PR Title FRC Opinion
Drills shallow, high-grade gold-silver, Positive – Highly encouraging results;
including 0.4 m of 9.0 g/t Au, 3,574 g/t continues to return bonanza silver grades at
Ag, 12.7% Cu, 1.2% Pb and 5.5% Zn shallow depths. Established continuity of
(5,692 g/t AgEq), on the eastern portion mineralization in four veins.
of the Camp vein target, Silver Queen
project, BC; crews mobilized for winter
drill program
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Hot Chili Limited ASX: HCH A$1.67 A$3.39
PR Title FRC Opinion
Reports quarterly interest payment on Positive – The start of port negotiations is a
convertible notes; commences port significant development for the Costa Fuego
negotiation project. The existing port infrastructure will
positively impact the project’s initial CAPEX,
and permitting/construction timelines.
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Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Cornerstone TSXV: CGP $4.14 $7.34
Capital
Resources Inc.
PR Title FRC Opinion
Well mineralized gold-copper porphyry Positive – Promising results, including
intersected below Alba gold discovery, significant intercepts (7 m at 1.77 g/t Au,
Bramaderos project, Ecuador and 21 m at 0.91 g/t Au); the Alba gold
discovery is comprised of a gold zone
situated above a gold-copper porphyry
system. We look forward to results of the
remaining assays; follow up drilling is
underway.
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Eskay Mining TSXV: ESK $3.01 NA
Corp.
PR Title FRC Opinion
Receives long high-grade assay results Positive - Results to date indicate potential
from TV for a large VMS system. All eight of the
recent holes reported significant mineralized
intercepts, such as 10.34 gpt Au eq over
11.93m, within 2.35 gpt Au eq over
238.87m, and 14.44 gpt Au eq over 9.36m,
within 2.96 gpt Au eq over 81.60m
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Blue Lagoon CSE: BLLG $0.36 $1.07
Resources
PR Title FRC Opinion
Announced results of 2021 soil sampling Positive - Encouraging results; the
company has identified several new zones
for follow-up.
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Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Colibri TSXV: CBI $0.11 $0.29
Resources
Corporation
PR Title FRC Opinion
Option partner reports trench sample Positive - Please to see several long
results including 19.8 m of 0.73 g/t Au intersections with attractive grades;
and 19.5 mof 0.61 g/t Au at Pilar Gold & additional met testing planned. The
Silver Project in Sonora, Mexico company is also planning a drill program.
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Lomiko Metals TSXV: LMR $0.08 $0.31
Inc.
PR Title FRC Opinion
Closing of private placement Positive - Raised $1.67M, and is well
funded; advancing its flagship La Loutre
graphite project to a pre-feasibility study.
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Renforth CSE: RFR $0.075 $0.12
Resources Inc.
PR Title FRC Opinion
Sampling at Victoria West delivers Positive – Sampling and drilling at Victoria
consistent surface nickel mineralization West indicate potential for near-surface
combined with copper enrichment polymetallic mineralization.
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Financials, Technology, Energy, and Special Situations
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
TAAT Global CSE: TAAT $1.82 $5.92
Alternatives Inc.
PR Title FRC Opinion
Wholesale reorders account for 48% of Positive – Reorders not only imply
TAAT sales volume in the U.S. for Q1- recurring revenues, but also that consumers
2022 (quarter ended January 2022). are catching on to TAAT products. Since
our last report in October, TAAT has
increased its store presence by 100% to
2,000.
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Trillion Energy CSE: TCF $0.17 $0.48
PR Title FRC Opinion
Announces completion of move to Positive – This was a pragmatic move as it
Canada not only reduces administrative, legal,
compliance, and filing costs, but also
attracts Canadian brokerages/investors.
Previously, there were several restrictions
for Canadian investors to participate in
TCF’s private placements.
Weekly Cryptocurrency Commentary
The global MCAP of cryptos declined 21% last week to US$1.6T (previously up 8%).
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Source: Coinmarketcap
Prices of mainstream/popular cryptos were down 26% on average last week, due to
lower crypto trading volumes, a decrease in the S&P 500, and higher gold prices. Note
that Bitcoin prices have been positively correlated to the S&P 500 and crypto trading
volumes, and negatively correlated to gold. We are expecting continued weakness in
crypto prices as hawkish comments from the U.S. Fed will likely put downward
pressure on the S&P 500 this week.
Source: FRC / Yahoo Finance
Companies operating in the crypto space are trading at an average EV/R of 8.3x
(previously 9.8x).
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EV/R of Crypto Companies
Source: S&P Capital IQ/FRC
Source: S&P Capital IQ/FRC
Key sector development listed below (positive):
➢ Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL) hired a former PayPal (NASDAQ: PYPL) executive to
run its payments division, and incorporate cryptos in their financial services offerings
(Google Pay). We believe Google’s entry is a strong endorsement for the sector.
➢ The Russian central bank has proposed plans to ban the use and mining of
cryptos. The bank stated that cryptos pose a threat to their financial system (money
laundering + high price swings).
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Updates from Crypto Companies Under Coverage
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Banxa Holdings TSXV: BNXA $2.50 $12.04
Inc.
PR Title FRC Opinion
December transaction volume up 337% Positive – As we expected, BNXA set
YoY records in Q2 (quarter ended December
2021). Trading volume increased 135%
QoQ to A$594M. The company continues to
expand its partners, adding 14 new in
December.
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
BIGG Digital CSE: BIGG $0.78 $3.06
Assets Inc.
PR Title FRC Opinion
Provides financial update for Q4-2021 Neutral – As we expected, Q4 revenue was
stronger than Q3, but was 16% lower than
our estimate ($3.3M vs our estimate of
$3.9M). As the company did not provide
transaction volumes or commission
percentages, we were unable to determine
the reason for coming in below
expectations. We were pleased to see a
52% QoQ increase in active users.
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Weekly Cannabis Commentary
Cannabis Industry Performance
Source: FRC
Last week, both U.S. and Canadian cannabis stocks declined. Key sector developments
below (mixed):
➢ According to Headset, a private data analytics firm, retail prices of flower in Canada
declined 16% in 2021. We expect further price compression in 2022 amid rising
competition and oversupply.
➢ South Dakota has approved its first three medical cannabis dispensary permits, and
the state’s health authority states that business applications continue to increase.
➢ Rhode Island legislators submitted a bill to legalize recreational cannabis.
Consensus views are that Rhode Island will legalize this year. We believe these
developments provide strong support for federal legalization.
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Valuation
The Canadian big four LPs are trading at a 0.4% premium (previously 12%) over their
U.S. peers. Over the past year, we have been predicting a shrinkage in premiums,
from potentially higher valuations of U.S. based companies. However, premiums have
been shrinking due to a steep fall in shares of Canadian companies rather than
higher share prices of U.S. based companies as we predicted. The cannabis sector has
been out of favor since early 2021, due to competition, lower product prices, and
oversupply. We believe the market is overlooking fundamentally solid companies.
Source: S&P Capital IQ, FRC
Average EV/R
Source: S&P Capital IQ, FRC
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Canadian Retail Cannabis Pricing
The average retail price per gram fell from $10.94 to $10.93.
Source: Online Provincial Cannabis Stores, FRC
Canadian Retail Dried Cannabis Flower Pricing
Source: Online Provincial Cannabis Stores, FRC
Canadian Retail Cannabis Stores
As of January 24, 2022, there are 2,995 retail cannabis stores in Canada, a WoW
increase of 16 stores, including 17 in Ontario, two in Alberta, and three closures in B.C.
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Nationwide Store Count
Source: Provincial Websites, FRC
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Updates from Cannabis Companies Under Coverage
Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
HempFusion TSE: CBD.U US$0.12 US$0.39
Wellness Inc.
PR Title FRC Opinion
Achieves major regulatory milestone Positive – Generally Recognized as Safe
(GRAS) status is very positive from a
marketing perspective. As noted in our
initiating report, we believe the company’s
key strengths include – wide range of
product offerings, extensive distribution
channels, and management’s regulatory
preparedness and focus on obtaining
certifications.
Weekly Psychedelic Commentary
Psychedelic Industry Performance
Source: TMX Money, FRC
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Company Ticker Current Share FRC Fair Value
Name: Symbol Price: Estimate:
Levitee Labs CSE: LVT $0.14 $0.86
Inc.
PR Title FRC Opinion
Announces a non-brokered private Neutral – The offering is priced at $0.20
placement of up to $3M per unit, with warrants priced at $0.40. As
LVT’s share price is $0.14, we believe the
company might have to re-price its offering.
Reddit Discussed Stocks
Our pick last week, The Toronto-Dominion Bank (NYSE: TD), ended the week
down 2.4%. The Electric Vehicle sector remains the most actively discussed among
retail investors, followed by cryptos, cannabis, and betting. This week, we are observing
strong retail sentiment around Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL). We suggest exiting if
the stock rises by at least 5%, or drops by more than 10%.
Key parameters used may include – a) total number of mentions, b) percentage change in the
number of mentions, c) stock sentiment, and d) market capitalization.
Historic Weekly Returns (Mar 1, 2021 – Present)
38 out of 46 picks have generated positive returns
Average return = 16.55%
➢ Mar 1, 2021 – Nov 22, 2021: Returns were calculated based on the assumption that picks were sold at their peak the same
week.
➢ Nov 29, 2021 – present (shown in the chart): Returns were calculated based on the exit guidance provided by us prior to
each recommendation.
➢ Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Source: FRC
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Disclaimers and Disclosure
The opinions expressed in this report are the true opinions of the analyst(s) about any companies and industries mentioned. Any
“forward looking statements” are our best estimates and opinions based upon information that is publicly available and that we
believe to be correct, but we have not independently verified with respect to truth or correctness. There is no guarantee that our
forecasts will materialize. Actual results will likely vary. Certain companies mentioned in pages 2, 9-14, 17, and 22-23 are covered
by FRC under an issuer paid model. FRC or companies with related management, and Analysts, may hold shares in some
companies mentioned in this report including TCF, GOOG, and AUC. Distribution procedure: our reports are distributed first to our
web-based subscribers on the date shown on this report then made available to delayed access users through various other
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Factors that would cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, continued acceptance of the Company's
products/services in the marketplace; acceptance in the marketplace of the Company's new product lines/services; competitive
factors; new product/service introductions by others; technological changes; dependence on suppliers; systematic market risks and
other risks discussed in the Company's periodic report filings, including interim reports, annual reports, and annual information forms
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