An Overview of the 2018 Seasonal Rainfall Prediction - Prof. Sani Abubakar Mashi Director-General / CEO Nigerian Meteorological - Food Security ...
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An Overview of the 2018
Seasonal Rainfall Prediction
Prof. Sani Abubakar Mashi
Director-General / CEO
Nigerian Meteorological
13 MARCH, 2018 Agency
OUTLINE
➢ Introduction
➢ Goal of the SRP
➢ SRP Model & ENSO
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➢ Components of the SRP:
➢ Onset of the Season
➢ Cessation of the Season
➢ Length of the Growing Season
➢ Rainfall Amount
➢ Dry spell
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➢ Temperature
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➢ Socio-economic Implications
INTRODUCTION
NIMET produces the Seasonal Rainfall Prediction (SRP) in fulfilment
of its mandate to effectively monitor the nation’s climate and
weather and provide necessary early warning advisories.
Developing economies like Nigeria, rely heavily on rain-fed
agriculture and encounter serious socio-economic setbacks
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whenever significant changes in the rainfall pattern occur.
Aviation, Agriculture, Hydro-electric power generation &
distribution, Road transport, Water Resources Mgt, Health, Security,
Insurance industry etc. experience worse impact when there are
significant changes in rainfall pattern.
Nigeria recently has witnessed monumental socio-economic
losses due to extreme weather and climate events. These have
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become more frequent and intense in recent times.
INTRODUCTION
NiMet produces the SRP to reduce the negative impacts of
production, and to provide a vital tool for informed decision-
making, policy formulation and planning in agriculture, water
resources and environment management, health, transportation,
etc.
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The timely preparation & release of the SRP is to enhance
preparedness against predicted climate risks and hazards. Thus,
the SRP assists decision makers and disaster managers at the
various levels of governance to put in place adaptation and
mitigation strategies.
The SRP is therefore an invaluable tool which is capable of
ameliorating the unpleasant consequences of extreme weather
and climate events.
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The proper application of the SRP reduces climate-related risks,
enhances production, security and revenue generation.GOAL OF THE SRP
NiMet seeks to use the SRP and its other key products to assist
government achieve its programs in the current agricultural
policy which include:
(i) The achievement of self-sufficiency in basic food supply and
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the attainment of food security;
(ii) Increase in the production of agricultural raw materials for
industries;
(iii) Increase in the production and processing of export crops,
using improved production and processing technologies;
(iv) Job creation within the agricultural value chain and,
(v) Improvement in the quality of life of citizens’ particularly rural
dwellers resulting in poverty eradication.
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cThe role of Climate Information
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2018 o Nigerian Meteorological AgencyTHE SRP MODEL & ENSO
The NiMet SRP model is constructed on the following
components:
▪ Region-specific crop model of maize and millet to
determine crop-specific onset, cessation, and length of
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rainy season;
▪ Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTAs) over the
Equatorial Pacific Region. Variations in the SSTs over the
South Pacific Oceans are known to have strong influence on
the rainfall pattern over our region.
▪ Historical daily weather data of not less than 30years record
from NiMet weather station;
▪ Phenological and dominant soil information and
characteristics;
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▪ The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase. Rainfall
Prediction is based on the strong tele-connection between
the El Nino / Southern Oscillations (ENSO) and the rain-
bearing weather systems over Nigeria.ENSO PHASE USED FOR THE 2018 SRP
NiMet forecast for 2018 is based on
the weak La Niña phase which is most
likely to dominate from January to
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March. Thereafter, it is expected to give
way to a Neutral phase through to the
end of 2018.
The Nigerian Meteorological Agency will continuously
monitor the evolution and developments within the ENSO and
issue updates to the predictions as the need arises.
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2018 o Nigerian Meteorological AgencyForecast Timeline
Aug- SRP preparation starts Stakeholders @ National level to
December for a draft in December assess(evaluation) forecast and
suggest ways to improve it
January Stakeholder Interactions (feedback)
@ National level Stakeholder Interactions @
Nigerian Meteorological Agency
National level and feedback to
February SRP released to the NiMet
/March nation
Stakeholders Interaction locally
to prepare advisory
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February SRP forecast updated
/March as needed by Users
Public Presentation and
onwards Preseason downscaling activitiesComponents of the 2018 SRP
Major components of the 2018 SRP include predictions of:
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Evaluation of the 2017 Onset dates of the
Temperature forecast
predictions growing season
Cessation dates of the Length of the growing Annual rainfall
growing season season amount
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The Little Dry Season Socio-economic
and Dry Spells ImplicationsOnset Dates of the growing season
➢ The earliest onset date is expected to be from March 1st around
the coastal region of the south-south.
➢ The onset date changes as we move northwards with areas
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around Maiduguri, Potiskum and Nguru predicted to have onset
from June 1st
➢ The country is expected to experience normal-to-earlier-than-
normal onset.
➢ Places like Sokoto, Bauchi, Kaduna, Lafia, Makurdi, Ado-Ekiti,
Akure, Calabar and Eket are expected to experience early onset
➢ while places like Yelwa, Bida, Abuja, Iseyin, Abeokuta, Lagos
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Island, Ikeja and Umuahia are likely to experience late onset
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➢ Other parts of the country are expected to have normal onset.Onset Dates of the growing season
Cessation Dates of Growing Season and Deviations
➢ The end of 2018 growing season is expected to
commence from September ending.
➢ The earliest cessation date is expected to start from
September 28th. This will occur around Sokoto and
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Katsina.
➢ The southern cities close to coastal states and those
adjoining the ocean, with ample soil moisture, should
have their cessation as late as December.
➢ Cessation of the growing season is expected to be
normal across most parts of the country.
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➢ Early cessation is anticipated over Jos, Ibi, Uyo and
Ikeja. Cessation will however be a little delayed over
parts of Ibadan, Ondo and Warri.Cessation Dates of Growing Season and Deviations
Length of Growing Season and Deviations
❖ In 2018, the Length of Growing Season is expected to
range from 117 to 287days, increasing from north to
south.
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❖ Normal length of growing season is predicted for most
parts of the country.
❖ However, cities such as Yelwa, Bida, Shaki, Ikeja,
Abuja, Jos, Ibi, Makurdi, Ogoja and Ikom are
expected to experience a longer than normal Length
of Growing Season
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Predicted Annual Rainfall and Deviations
❖ The country is expected to have a normal rainfall season in most
places.
❖ The least amounts of rainfall, within the range of 400 - 800 mm,
are expected across the extreme north such as Katsina, Nguru
and Sokoto.
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❖ Rainfall amount above 3100mm are likely in Eket and Calabar
along the coast of the South East
❖ while Abuja, Gombe, Yelwa, Bida and places along the Rivers
Niger and Benue are expected to have annual rainfall amount in
the range of 800 - 1600mm.
❖ Most places are likely to have normal annual rainfall amount
with exceptions of areas around Nguru, Yelwa, and Ibi where
about 5-7% above normal rainfall are expected.
❖ Areas around Shaki and Abeokuta are likely to experience
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below normal annual rainfall amount in 2018.Predicted Annual Rainfall and Deviations
2018 Dry spell Prediction
❖ The probabilistic dry spell forecast shows that northern parts of
the country like Sokoto, Zamfara, Katsina, Kano, Kebbi, Yobe and
Borno are likely to experience severe dry spell in the month of
June.
❖ This may last 10 to 18 days after the onset.
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❖ Moderate dry spell that may last 7 to 16 days is expected around
Yelwa, Shaki, Ilorin, Bida, Zaria, Funtua, Jos, Bauchi, Gombe and
Yola in June, 2018
❖ The probability for dry spell in July is low. However, areas around
Sokoto (Illela, Gada, Tangaza, Isa, Gudu), Katsina (Jibia, Kaita,
Mai’Adua, Daura, Mashi, Dutsi), Yobe (Yusufari, Yunusari,
Machina, Karasuwa), Jigawa (Birniwa, Guri, Sule Tankarkar,
Maigatari, Babura), Zanfara (Shinkafi, Zurmi, Maradun, Bakura,
Kaura Namoda), Kebbi (Augie, Arewa Dandi, Argungu) and
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Borno (Mobbar, Abadam, Kukawa, Guzamala, Gubio, Nganzai,
Mongono) will experience dry spell in the first week of July for 7 to
12 days spilling from the June dry spell2018 Dry spell Prediction
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2018 o Nigerian Meteorological AgencyJanuary Temperature Forecast
❖ Temperature prediction for January shows obvious warmer-than-
normal temperatures conditions over places like Jos, Kaduna,
Kano, Gusau, Bauchi, Gombe, Katsina, Maiduguri, Nguru,
Potiskum, Ibi, Yola, Uyo, Lagos Island, Abuja, Minna, Yelwa and
Sokoto during the daytime.
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❖ Similarly, places like Nguru, Maiduguri, Ilorin, Oshogbo, Ondo,
Ibadan, Ijebu-Ode, Lagos Island, Warri, Awka, Owerri and Port
Harcourt are expected to experience warmer-than-normal
conditions during the night time.
❖ Expected temperature change over these places is about
+0.50C. The temperatures over the rest of the country are
however predicted to remain normal.
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cJanuary Temperature Forecast
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2018 o Nigerian Meteorological AgencyFebruary Temperature Forecast
Temperatures over most parts of the country, in February 2018,
are predicted to be normal except for Lagos Island where a
warmer than normal situation is expected to be experienced
during the day.
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few places like Yelwa, Jos, Ikom and Iseyin are likely to
experience cooler than normal temperatures
The rest of the rest of the country are predicted to experience
warmer than normal night temperature conditions.
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cFebruary Temperature Forecast
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2018 o Nigerian Meteorological AgencyMarch Temperature Forecast
➢ In March 2018, normal temperatures are predicted for the
southern and central parts of the country
➢ The north-eastern corners are expected to experience above-
normal temperatures during the day.
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➢ For the night temperature; the northeastern flank, extending to
Ibi and Ogoja, also including Sokoto and Gusau are likely to be
warmer than normal. Yelwa is expected to be cooler than
normal while other parts of the country are likely to be normal
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2018 o Nigerian Meteorological AgencyApril Temperature Forecast
➢ Day time temperatures in April 2018 are expected to be cooler
than normal over the central to the western part of the country.
➢ The rest of the country is likely to experience normal conditions
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➢ Night time temperature is very likely to be warmer than normal in
Bauchi, Gombe, Maiduguri, Potiskum, Nguru, Kano, Katsina and
Gusau. This could bring with it high discomfort to the people.
➢ Cooler conditions will however be experienced over Abuja,
Lokoja, Yelwa, Shaki, Iseyin, Abeokuta and Ijebu Ode. The rest of
the country is expected to observe normal temperature
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2018 o Nigerian Meteorological AgencySOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
Food production is expected to be good across the country due to the
predicted above normal to normal growing season length over large parts
of the country. Stakeholder should take advantage of the prediction to
ensure early distribution of inputs.
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The warmer-than-normal temperature conditions predicted the country
from January to May 2018 may lead to water stress and outbreak of heat-
related diseases among people and livestock.
The predicted normal rainfall across the country may lead to stability in
reservoirs for the operation of hydro-power plants, thereby enhancing
hydropower generation.
Heavy downpours and thunderstorms particularly during the onset and
cessation may induce flash floods, reduce horizontal visibility, cause flight
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delays & cancellations, slippery road surfaces, etc. Motorists should
therefore exercise caution while driving on highways.Rainfall Prediction Tables for 2018
Onset End Of Season Length of Season Seasonal Rainfall
Stati
on
Likely ME Days Likely ME Days Likely ME Days Likely ME mm
ABE 31-Mar 3 22-Nov 7 236 8 1120 79
ADE 23-Mar 2 30-Nov 6 252 7 1409 75
ABU 28-Apr 3 23-Nov 3 209 5 1481 77
AKU 21-Mar 2 3-Dec 4 257 5 1383 72
ASA 5-Apr 3 9-Dec 4 248 5 1871 93
AWK 5-Apr 3 30-Nov 5 239 6 1935 120
BAU 19-May 2 29-Oct 4 163 6 1111 83
BEN 15-Mar 2 19-Dec 4 279 5 2206 108
BID 8-May 2 6-Nov 2 182 3 1088 49
CAL 6-Mar 4 18-Dec 6 287 7 2987 118
EKE 5-Mar 7 17-Dec 10 287 12 3076 350
ENU 7-Apr 3 27-Nov 4 234 4 1834 58
GOM 26-May 3 10-Nov 2 168 3 998 33
GUS 1-Jun 3 27-Oct 3 148 4 891 56
IBA 27-Mar 2 26-Nov 11 244 11 1328 88
IBI 27-Apr 3 21-Nov 2 208 3 1107 58
IJE 28-Mar 3 24-Nov 6 241 5 1594 69
IKE 18-Mar 3 15-Dec 3 272 5 1520 72
IKO 26-Mar 7 2-Dec 5 251 6 2352 68
ILO 19-Apr 3 26-Nov 4 221 4 1287 87
ISE 30-Mar 3 27-Nov 4 242 6 1171 68
JOS 9-May 2 9-Nov 3 184 3 1268 34
KAD 16-May 1 6-Nov 3 174 4 1309 52
KAN 5-Jun 4 17-Oct 3 134 5 1000 97
KAT 11-Jun 5 7-Oct 6 118 7 559 45
LAF 20-Apr 4 10-Nov 11 204 11 1228 88
LAR 5-Apr 7 26-Nov 10 235 10 1687 86
LOK 20-Apr 4 27-Nov 2 221 3 1229 54
MAI 19-Jun 2 23-Oct 3 126 4 562 50
MAK 20-Apr 4 23-Nov 3 217 4 1210 52
MIN 30-Apr 3 23-Nov 2 207 3 1196 47
NGU 29-Jun 2 20-Oct 3 113 5 467 43
OGO 23-Apr 2 11-Nov 1 202 2 1965 151
OND 11-Mar 3 27-Nov 13 261 13 1599 102
OSG 1-Apr 2 19-Nov 5 232 5 1309 52
OWE 14-Mar 4 11-Dec 3 272 6 2310 85Thank You
You can visit us @:
Nigerian Meteorological Agency
www.nimet.gov.ng
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