Advanced & Double Counting bio-methanol as blend component - Argus Global Gasoline 2019
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Advanced & Double Counting
bio-methanol as blend component
Argus Global Gasoline 2019
2nd of April 2019, Hilton Amsterdam
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Let me start where John stopped
3
Methanol blending attractiveness
“Methanol is high on RON, but also high on vapour pressure, its
very dangerous from a fire perspective since you can’t see the
flame and its poisonous” (classical response from traders)
Let’s look at each of the parts separately! We start with RON
4
RON is not just RON
For RON we have to look at:
1) RON
2) Heat of vaporization (RON equivalent)
3) Blending RON
5
1) RON: Remember this figure?
6
1) RON: Remember this figure?
Lets have a look
at n-heptane
and Iso-octane
7
1) RON: Octane is king!
Octane number is a fuels ability to withstand self-detonating (“knocking”)
when compressed
Iso Octane – Octane 100 N-heptane – Octane 0
Ratio: 5:3 Ratio: 2:5
The higher the octane number (and the colder the air/fuel mix is) the more
compression the fuel can withstand before detonating.
High octane characteristics: A lot of branching
1) RON: Methanol molecule
High octane (109)
Methanol is octane 109 (RON) Far higher than ordinary
gasoline which typically is octane 95 or 98. The higher
the octane number, the higher the compression ratio.
The compression ratio is the SINGLE most important
measure to increase efficiency and is the main reason
why CI engines (diesel) are more efficient than SI
engines (gasoline)
9
1) RON: Methanol is RON 109
RON 109
1
102) Heat of vaporization (RON equivalent)
High octane (109)
Methanol is octane 109 (RON) Far higher than ordinary
gasoline which typically is octane 95 or 98. The higher
the octane number, the higher the compression ratio.
The compression ratio is the SINGLE most important
measure to increase efficiency and is the main reason
why CI engines (diesel) are more efficient than SI
engines (gasoline)
High heat of vaporization (+24)
OH groups have strong hydrogen-bonds to
neighbouring molecules and therefore superior cooling
Combined octane effect. One can therefore increase the compression
109 + 24 = 133 ratio even further. The Octane Number (ON) cooling
Highest of all alcohols! effect is equal to a RON of 24 (4 points higher than
ethanol)
112) Heat of vaporization (RON equivalent)
140
RON 133 equivalent (off the chart!)
RON 109
1
12The magic properties of water
Atom Atom-weight No. of atoms Total weight
H 1 2 2
O 16 1 16
Sum 18
• Such a small molecule should be a gas!
• Alkanes: Buthane (C4H10) at 58 g/mol is a gas. Pentane (C5H12) at 72 is a liquid
• Why is water (H2O) not a gas but a liquid at NTP?
13The magic properties of water
14Methanol should be a gas but is a liquid
Hydrogen bond
15Alcohols are liquids
16Heat of vaporization – How much cooling?
The charge cooling from petrol
is one of the important reasons
why car-manufacturers have
moved from PFI to DI. Imagine
what alcohols can do!
17Heat of vaporization – What does it mean?
Pure alcohol optimised engines can give “monumental” efficiency improvement
18RON↑ à CR↑ à Efficiency↑
19RON↑ à CR↑ à Efficiency↑
RON95 using DI
20RON↑ à CR↑ à Efficiency↑
Methanol using DI
Huge potential
gain in efficiency
RON95 using DI
213) Blending RON
Why is methanol a
more potent RON-
increaser than
ethanol when they
both are RON 109?
223) Blending RON
The octane number of any Gasoline, Ethanol, Methanol (GEM) blend can be found by using an
enlarged version of the equations below:
1 % MeOH raises the octane number as much as
1.4 % EtOH due to similar octane number (RON
109) but far lower molar-weight (32 vs. 46 g/mol)
à More bang for the buck!
Assumptions
- RONG: 93.5
- A standard G95.1E4.9
- RONG95.1E4.9: 95.3
Recommendation for G93.4E4.9M1.7
- RONG: 92.7
- 1.7 % MeOH
- RONG93.4E4.9M1.7: 95.3
Savings
A cheaper base gasoline with a lower octane
number can be used resulting in significant
savings.
Models and calculations can never beat tests and experience, so test!Vapour pressure
MeOH peak:
10% +23 kPa
EtOH peak:
5% + 7 kPa
Ethanol has a
positive impact on
methanols RvP à
Use both alcohols
24Flammability and toxicity
Halflife in groundwater: 1-7 days for
methanol vs. up to 730 days for benzene
Malcolm Pirnie, Technical memorandum
Further info: Slide 18 to 28, Daniel
Sahnen, MAN workshop Copenhagen,
20th of March 2018
25Methanol blending attractiveness
“Methanol is high on RON, but also high on vapour pressure, its
very dangerous from a fire perspective since you can’t see the
flame and its poisonous” (classical response from traders)
Methanol has a very high blending RON, it does increase the
vapour pressure, but its manageable. Its correct that the
methanol flame is nearly invisible but it is still considered overall
safer than gasoline and methanol being poisonous in an “E5” is
no concern what-so-ever.
26Changes to base gasoline
Base gasoline for European winter-specs (Netherlands as example)
From: RON93.5 / 83kPa (final product is RON95 and 90 kPa)
To: RON92.9 / 78 kPa (conservative)
Savings from reduced RON and increased price from buthane-reduction
equalise out each other.
27Gasoline: Winter specs Maximum RVP specifications (Oct. - Apr.)* The darker the green, the more space for methanol in the blend (above 65 min.) RVP = 100 RVP = 95 RVP = 90 RVP = 80 RVP = Unknown Bio-methanol can be used in low- blends in all of Europe during winter. * For most but not all countries, some countries have other periods e.g. Sep. to May. 28
Gasoline: Summer specs Maximum RVP specifications (May - Sep.)* The lighter the colour the higher the demand for non- alcoholic oxygenates RVP = 70 RVP = 60 RVP = Unknown Within red line = Gasoline Low Blend (GLB) is recommended during summer * For most but not all countries, some countries have other periods e.g. Jun. to Aug. 29
The Renewable Energy Directive:
Bio-MTBE and Bio-ETBE
Double Counting means 44% from renewables (2*22%)
30Bio-mandates &
Blue = Volume (RED)
Dark green = Energy (RED)
Light green = GHG (FQD)
Orange = Other
Grey = Non EU
31Implementation of FQD
Currently
Only GHG targets in
Germany, Czech rep.,
Sweden, Croatia and
Rumania à Cheap to
fulfil GHG requirement
since only a few
countries have
implemented FQD
Germany: 4 % GHG
Czech rep.: 3,5 % GHG
Sweden: 19,3% GHG
diesel
32Implementation of FQD
Near term future
GHG targets in all of
EU? à Expensive to
fulfil GHG requirement
since all countries
have implemented
FQD
All: 6 % GHG minimum
33Advanced 2019
UK: “Development Fuel”
Bulgaria: “New generation”
34Advanced 2020
UK: “Development Fuel”
Bulgaria: “New generation”
35Advanced 2021
UK: “Development Fuel”
Bulgaria: “New generation”
36Past 2020: REDII Source: Eelco Dekker, MI 37
Renewable methanol map
38Use of methanol - Holland
Dutch fulfilment of bio-mandate 2011:
Gasoline
- Methanol - double counting
- MTBE (bio-methanol based) - double
counting
- Ethanol - only single counting
Bio-fuel Energy (TJ) Energy (GJ) Methanol (T)
Methanol 153,8 153.800 7.690
BioMTBE 827,5 827.500 41.375
http://www.rijksoverheid.nl/documenten-en-publicaties/rapporten/2012/08/03/naleving-jaarverplichting-2011-
hernieuwbare-energie-vervoer-en-verplichting-brandstoffen-luchtverontreiniging.html p. 12 and ”Bijlage 1” p. 17.2018 European use of methanol
compared to other products
What 1.000 m3 1.000 tons
Biodiesel 11.588
Methanol (fossil) 8.647*
Ethanol (bio) 5.468 4.342
HVO 2.215
*Import of 7.147t + estimated 1.500 t of production in EU.
The European methanol market is double the size of the European ethanol
market.
Significant amount of methanol is used for biodiesel and MTBE.
40Decide your optimisations strategies
41Decide your optimisation strategies
From
RvP (as high as possible since buthane is cheap), as low RON as possible (since alkylate
and reformate are expensive components)
To
Cheapest fulfilment of bio-mandate and maximizing O2-content (towards 2,7 or 3,7%
O2). A whole new way of thinking!
Examples from Sep., Oct. & Nov. last year http://www.greenergy.com/uk/quality
42Medium use: 1,6% methanol
43Low use: 1,1% methanol
44High use: 2,0% methanol
45Shift between options when € dictate so!
46When Rhine was low RME skyrocketed
This has costed most
Finally back to of you millions à
“normal”
In general: Use biodiesel in summer and methanol in winter
47Currently: 4 separate values
Fairly easy to calculate values
1) RED 2) FQD
(Energy, vol., counting) GHG-savings
3) Blend-wall
4) Advanced
(both RED & FQD)
48Future: Overlapping à prices go up
Increasingly complex to calculate values
1) RED 2) FQD
3) Blend-wall 4) Advanced
49Future: Overlapping à prices go up
Increasingly complex to calculate values
1) RED 2) FQD
3) Blend- 4) Adv.
wall
50Theoretical value, bio-meoh, last 6 month
51www.nordicgreen.eu
info@nordicgreen.eu
Nordic Green
Marselis Boulevard 80
Bo Gleerup DK-8000 Aarhus C Per Sune Koustrup
Sales Director
Co-founder, CEO CEO
Co-founder, Trader
M: +45 2044 2988 ( +45 2nd-G-MeOH M:
M:+45
+45282 646
2147 80
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bg@nordicgreen.eu (+45 263-4-6364) psk@nordicgreen.euYou can also read
