Advanced & Double Counting bio-methanol as blend component - Argus Global Gasoline 2019

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Advanced & Double Counting bio-methanol as blend component - Argus Global Gasoline 2019
Advanced & Double Counting
bio-methanol as blend component
          Argus Global Gasoline 2019
     2nd of April 2019, Hilton Amsterdam
Advanced & Double Counting bio-methanol as blend component - Argus Global Gasoline 2019
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Advanced & Double Counting bio-methanol as blend component - Argus Global Gasoline 2019
Let me start where John stopped

                                  3
Advanced & Double Counting bio-methanol as blend component - Argus Global Gasoline 2019
Methanol blending attractiveness

“Methanol is high on RON, but also high on vapour pressure, its
very dangerous from a fire perspective since you can’t see the
flame and its poisonous” (classical response from traders)

Let’s look at each of the parts separately! We start with RON

                                                                  4
Advanced & Double Counting bio-methanol as blend component - Argus Global Gasoline 2019
RON is not just RON

For RON we have to look at:
1) RON
2) Heat of vaporization (RON equivalent)
3) Blending RON

                                           5
Advanced & Double Counting bio-methanol as blend component - Argus Global Gasoline 2019
1) RON: Remember this figure?

                                6
Advanced & Double Counting bio-methanol as blend component - Argus Global Gasoline 2019
1) RON: Remember this figure?

     Lets have a look
     at n-heptane
     and Iso-octane

                                7
Advanced & Double Counting bio-methanol as blend component - Argus Global Gasoline 2019
1) RON: Octane is king!

Octane number is a fuels ability to withstand self-detonating (“knocking”)
when compressed

         Iso Octane – Octane 100            N-heptane – Octane 0

               Ratio: 5:3                       Ratio: 2:5

The higher the octane number (and the colder the air/fuel mix is) the more
compression the fuel can withstand before detonating.

               High octane characteristics: A lot of branching
Advanced & Double Counting bio-methanol as blend component - Argus Global Gasoline 2019
1) RON: Methanol molecule

                   High octane (109)
                   Methanol is octane 109 (RON) Far higher than ordinary
                   gasoline which typically is octane 95 or 98. The higher
                   the octane number, the higher the compression ratio.
                   The compression ratio is the SINGLE most important
                   measure to increase efficiency and is the main reason
                   why CI engines (diesel) are more efficient than SI
                   engines (gasoline)

                                                                             9
Advanced & Double Counting bio-methanol as blend component - Argus Global Gasoline 2019
1) RON: Methanol is RON 109

         RON 109

     1

                              10
2) Heat of vaporization (RON equivalent)

                            High octane (109)
                            Methanol is octane 109 (RON) Far higher than ordinary
                            gasoline which typically is octane 95 or 98. The higher
                            the octane number, the higher the compression ratio.
                            The compression ratio is the SINGLE most important
                            measure to increase efficiency and is the main reason
                            why CI engines (diesel) are more efficient than SI
                            engines (gasoline)

                            High heat of vaporization (+24)
                            OH groups have strong hydrogen-bonds to
                            neighbouring molecules and therefore superior cooling
     Combined octane        effect. One can therefore increase the compression
      109 + 24 = 133        ratio even further. The Octane Number (ON) cooling
 Highest of all alcohols!   effect is equal to a RON of 24 (4 points higher than
                            ethanol)

                                                                                      11
2) Heat of vaporization (RON equivalent)
  140
             RON 133 equivalent (off the chart!)

            RON 109

        1

                                                   12
The magic properties of water

         Atom              Atom-weight     No. of atoms      Total weight
         H                       1                2               2
         O                      16                1               16
         Sum                                                      18

• Such a small molecule should be a gas!
• Alkanes: Buthane (C4H10) at 58 g/mol is a gas. Pentane (C5H12) at 72 is a liquid
• Why is water (H2O) not a gas but a liquid at NTP?

                                                                                     13
The magic properties of water

                                14
Methanol should be a gas but is a liquid

                                       Hydrogen bond

                                                       15
Alcohols are liquids

                       16
Heat of vaporization – How much cooling?

      The charge cooling from petrol
      is one of the important reasons
      why car-manufacturers have
      moved from PFI to DI. Imagine
      what alcohols can do!

                                           17
Heat of vaporization – What does it mean?

Pure alcohol optimised engines can give “monumental” efficiency improvement

                                                                              18
RON↑ à CR↑ à Efficiency↑

                           19
RON↑ à CR↑ à Efficiency↑

     RON95 using DI

                           20
RON↑ à CR↑ à Efficiency↑

     Methanol using DI

                           Huge potential
                           gain in efficiency
     RON95 using DI

                                                21
3) Blending RON

                  Why is methanol a
                  more potent RON-
                  increaser than
                  ethanol when they
                  both are RON 109?

                                      22
3) Blending RON

The octane number of any Gasoline, Ethanol, Methanol (GEM) blend can be found by using an
enlarged version of the equations below:
                                                    1 % MeOH raises the octane number as much as
                                                    1.4 % EtOH due to similar octane number (RON
                                                    109) but far lower molar-weight (32 vs. 46 g/mol)
                                                    à More bang for the buck!

                                                    Assumptions
                                                    - RONG: 93.5
                                                    - A standard G95.1E4.9
                                                    - RONG95.1E4.9: 95.3

                                                    Recommendation for G93.4E4.9M1.7
                                                    - RONG: 92.7
                                                    - 1.7 % MeOH
                                                    - RONG93.4E4.9M1.7: 95.3

                                                    Savings
                                                    A cheaper base gasoline with a lower octane
                                                    number can be used resulting in significant
                                                    savings.
              Models and calculations can never beat tests and experience, so test!
Vapour pressure

                  MeOH peak:
                  10% +23 kPa

                  EtOH peak:
                  5% + 7 kPa

                  Ethanol has a
                  positive impact on
                  methanols RvP à
                  Use both alcohols

                                  24
Flammability and toxicity

                        Halflife in groundwater: 1-7 days for
                        methanol vs. up to 730 days for benzene

                        Malcolm Pirnie, Technical memorandum

                            Further info: Slide 18 to 28, Daniel
                            Sahnen, MAN workshop Copenhagen,
                            20th of March 2018

                                                                   25
Methanol blending attractiveness

“Methanol is high on RON, but also high on vapour pressure, its
very dangerous from a fire perspective since you can’t see the
flame and its poisonous” (classical response from traders)

Methanol has a very high blending RON, it does increase the
vapour pressure, but its manageable. Its correct that the
methanol flame is nearly invisible but it is still considered overall
safer than gasoline and methanol being poisonous in an “E5” is
no concern what-so-ever.

                                                                    26
Changes to base gasoline

Base gasoline for European winter-specs (Netherlands as example)
From: RON93.5 / 83kPa (final product is RON95 and 90 kPa)
To: RON92.9 / 78 kPa (conservative)

Savings from reduced RON and increased price from buthane-reduction
equalise out each other.

                                                                      27
Gasoline: Winter specs
Maximum RVP specifications (Oct. - Apr.)*

The darker the green,
the more space for
methanol in the blend
(above 65 min.)

RVP = 100
RVP = 95
RVP = 90
RVP = 80
RVP = Unknown

Bio-methanol can be used in low-
blends in all of Europe during winter.

 * For most but not all countries, some
 countries have other periods e.g. Sep. to May.   28
Gasoline: Summer specs
Maximum RVP specifications (May - Sep.)*

The lighter the colour
the higher the
demand for non-
alcoholic oxygenates

RVP = 70
RVP = 60
RVP = Unknown

Within red line = Gasoline Low Blend
(GLB) is recommended during summer

 * For most but not all countries, some
 countries have other periods e.g. Jun. to Aug.   29
The Renewable Energy Directive:
Bio-MTBE and Bio-ETBE

Double Counting means 44% from renewables (2*22%)

                                                    30
Bio-mandates &

Blue = Volume (RED)
Dark green = Energy (RED)
Light green = GHG (FQD)
Orange = Other
Grey = Non EU

                            31
Implementation of FQD
Currently

Only GHG targets in
Germany, Czech rep.,
Sweden, Croatia and
Rumania à Cheap to
fulfil GHG requirement
since only a few
countries have
implemented FQD

Germany: 4 % GHG
Czech rep.: 3,5 % GHG
Sweden: 19,3% GHG
diesel

                         32
Implementation of FQD
Near term future

GHG targets in all of
EU? à Expensive to
fulfil GHG requirement
since all countries
have implemented
FQD

All: 6 % GHG minimum

                         33
Advanced 2019

UK: “Development Fuel”
Bulgaria: “New generation”

                             34
Advanced 2020

UK: “Development Fuel”
Bulgaria: “New generation”

                             35
Advanced 2021

UK: “Development Fuel”
Bulgaria: “New generation”

                             36
Past 2020: REDII

 Source: Eelco Dekker, MI   37
Renewable methanol map

                         38
Use of methanol - Holland

                                                                            Dutch fulfilment of bio-mandate 2011:

                                                                            Gasoline
                                                                            - Methanol - double counting
                                                                            - MTBE (bio-methanol based) - double
                                                                              counting
                                                                            - Ethanol - only single counting

    Bio-fuel                 Energy (TJ)                Energy (GJ)               Methanol (T)
   Methanol                       153,8                    153.800                       7.690
   BioMTBE                        827,5                    827.500                     41.375

http://www.rijksoverheid.nl/documenten-en-publicaties/rapporten/2012/08/03/naleving-jaarverplichting-2011-
hernieuwbare-energie-vervoer-en-verplichting-brandstoffen-luchtverontreiniging.html p. 12 and ”Bijlage 1” p. 17.
2018 European use of methanol
compared to other products

What                                1.000 m3                 1.000 tons
Biodiesel                                                     11.588
Methanol (fossil)                                             8.647*
Ethanol (bio)                         5.468                    4.342
HVO                                                            2.215

*Import of 7.147t + estimated 1.500 t of production in EU.

The European methanol market is double the size of the European ethanol
market.

Significant amount of methanol is used for biodiesel and MTBE.
                                                                          40
Decide your optimisations strategies

                                       41
Decide your optimisation strategies

From
RvP (as high as possible since buthane is cheap), as low RON as possible (since alkylate
and reformate are expensive components)

To
Cheapest fulfilment of bio-mandate and maximizing O2-content (towards 2,7 or 3,7%
O2). A whole new way of thinking!

Examples from Sep., Oct. & Nov. last year http://www.greenergy.com/uk/quality

                                                                                      42
Medium use: 1,6% methanol

                            43
Low use: 1,1% methanol

                         44
High use: 2,0% methanol

                          45
Shift between options when € dictate so!

                                           46
When Rhine was low RME skyrocketed

                        This has costed most
  Finally back to       of you millions à
  “normal”

          In general: Use biodiesel in summer and methanol in winter
                                                                       47
Currently: 4 separate values

                              Fairly easy to calculate values

           1) RED                                                 2) FQD
   (Energy, vol., counting)                                     GHG-savings

       3) Blend-wall
                                                                4) Advanced
     (both RED & FQD)

                                                                              48
Future: Overlapping à prices go up
             Increasingly complex to calculate values

                  1) RED                 2) FQD

              3) Blend-wall           4) Advanced

                                                        49
Future: Overlapping à prices go up
             Increasingly complex to calculate values

                 1) RED                   2) FQD

                3) Blend-                  4) Adv.
                wall

                                                        50
Theoretical value, bio-meoh, last 6 month

                                            51
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