A Look Back on the 2018 NATO Brussels Summit
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
A Look Back on the 2018 NATO Brussels Summit Policy Paper – Nodar Pkhaladze, August 2018 The NATO summits are one of the most is stated that the Alliance sees Russian important events in the sphere of global actions in Europe as a main source of security. They usually serve as a destabilization. The NATO members platform to announce changes or news condemned Russian actions in Georgia regarding the Alliance. It could be and Ukraine, once again calling upon anything ranging from enlargement the state to push back its forces from the announcement to expressing concerns countries it had illegally and and proposing strategies against illegitimately occupied. According to multiple global threats. The recent the document, Russia "is violating summit was no different. Even though international law, conducting the Brussels event was scheduled provocative military activities, and mainly to tackle the issue of 2% GDP attempting to undermine our spending by the allies, it touched upon institutions and sow disunity"(Brussels other key issues. There were several Declaration on Transatlantic Security documents adopted through the and Solidarity 2018: Paragraph 2). This summits framework: 1. The Brussels statement is further enhanced in the full Summit Declaration; 2. Brussels Brussels Summit Declaration, where Declaration on Transatlantic Security the Alliance practically repeated the and Solidarity; 3. Joint Declaration on messages addressed towards the Cooperation between the NATO and the Russian Federation. Again, they have European Union; 4. NATO-Georgia mentioned countless efforts made by Commission Declaration; 5. Chairman’s the NATO over two decades to build a Statement on NATO-Ukraine; and 6. partnership with the Russian side, but Joint Statement on the Resolute all those efforts proved to be fruitless as Support Mission in Afghanistan. Russia continues to view the Alliance as a threat. Russia's occupation of Naturally, one of the first topics to Georgia's (2008) and Ukraine's (2014) discuss was the case of Russia, its territories have proved that no matter continuous violation of the how many times the relations with international law; usage of soft & hard Russians are reset, they will never give power on countries of Eastern Europe up their "sphere of privileged interests". and Baltic region; interfering and attempting to disrupt Western As a result, the document reiterates democracies by meddling in elections of Warsaw Declaration's statement that different European countries and "all practical civilian and military spreading disinformation there. cooperation" with the Russian side remains suspended at the moment, Russia however, the option of open political In the Brussels Declaration on dialogue would be maintained (Brussels Transatlantic Security and Solidarity it Summit Declaration 2018: Paragraph 5). POLICY PAPER | August 2018
However, unlike the Warsaw Summit While comparing this part to the Declaration, in the Brussels Summit’s Warsaw Summit Communiqué, it can Declaration, it is noticeable how the be said that the current position of the NATO views Russian actions and not Alliance towards the Russian Russia itself as an enemy. It is apparent Federation, has become less especially in paragraphs where the confrontative. It shows that the NATO NATO talks about one of their defensive is willing to avoid any sort of military capabilities, nuclear weapons to be confrontation from the Russian side, exact. There it is highlighted that the and remains open to political dialogue. NATO BMD (Ballistic Missile Defence) However, it can be easily noticed that in their possession is for defence only, the accusations towards the country's and only in case of self-defence would aggressive policy towards its be used against an enemy (ibid.: neighbours and meddling in European Paragraph 37). countries affairs, is not highlighted as starkly as it was in Warsaw Summit In next sentences it is even stated that Communique. the Alliance did not and will not use those capabilities against Russian Nevertheless, the fact remains that the Federation. As it is stated “NATO BMD majority of the Alliance learned not to is intended to defend against potential trust to Russian promises, and thus, threats emanating from outside the relations can no longer revert to Euro-Atlantic area" (ibid.: Paragraph "business as usual" as it was attempted 41) which naturally raises a question many times by the West, most famous what exactly can be considered as a example being the 2009 threat grave enough to use the Ballistic "Reset/Perezagruzka" policy1. Even Missile Defence system. The Alliance though, there are still some that do not goes into such a length to explain that view Russia as an enemy, the majority the BMD system is not only incapable to of states have seen enough oppose the Russian nuclear arsenal, but international law violations there is also not such desire to improve (interference in the elections of USA, the system in the first place. The France, Germany; as well as recent Alliance uses this statement as an usage of chemical weapon in the UK) to argument to prove why exactly "Russian realize that the country, which easily statements threatening to target Allies denounces the treaty signed the because of NATO BMD are previous day, should not be trusted. unacceptable and counterproductive" (ibid.: Paragraph 41). 1 The 2009's "Reset/Perezagruzka" policy was However, this move turned out to be an attempt by the Obama administration to unsuccessful as Russia continued to follow zero- improve relations with Russia after the 2008 sum logic and further disrupted peace in Russia-Georgian War. This policy, was focused Europe once again by invading and annexing to bring both countries to the win-win outcome Ukraine's territories in 2014. and further cooperation between states through different political and economic areas. POLICY PAPER | August 2018
2% and Burden-sharing paradoxical. By presented logic, Europe The next issue to be looked into would (including Germany) requires help of be the US President Donald Trump's the USA to be protected from Russia, rhetoric towards the European allies in while at the same time the same NATO. Trump repeatedly stressed that countries of Europe are dependent on European member states of the NATO the Russian gas pipelines (Nord Stream have to spend more on defence budget 1 and Nord Stream 2 projects). Those to reach the agreed 2% threshold that pipelines are spreading from the was not fulfilled by majority of Western part of Russia, through the countries. Many in the West feared that Baltic Sea, into Germany, from where Donald Trump actions would create a the said gas is distributed into different discord between the USA and Europe. European countries. Trump added that countries such as Germany could use Before the summit, NATO General the money paid for the Russian energy Secretary, Jens Stoltenberg, met with to increase the defence budget. To the US President Trump. During the support his argument, the US president conversation, Trump repeatedly stated mentioned that countries such as that the issue of defence spending had Poland, which, even though, have less to be resolved urgently. He commented GDP than Germany, not only meet the that the "burden sharing" of the USA defence spending criteria, but also throughout the decades was not "fair" refuse to be dependent on Russian as the country has been spending more energy supplies. on the defence (4,2% of its GDP) than all the other members of the Alliance. In The next day, during Jens Stoltenberg's fact, it was mentioned that from all the press conference, it was evident that 29 members of the NATO, only 5 Trump's harsh rhetoric did bear its members were even meeting the 2% fruits. In his speech the General GDP spending criteria. From the Secretary said that despite the meeting, it was evident that Jens disagreements, the NATO has reached Stoltenberg did agree with Trump's mutual agreement on many issues, statement and highlighted that since including the issue of burden sharing. last year, this issue has been regarded The further support to this statement more seriously by the allies. There was can be seen in the official Brussels some disagreement seen regarding the Declaration, where it was agreed that deadlines, however. According to the defence spending of all the allies Stoltenberg, some NATO members have to reach the 2% point by 2024 the (especially Germany) would reach the latest. Stoltenberg stated that the required threshold of defence spending situation has been improved greatly, as by 2028. Trump, on the other hand, by the time of current summit, already viewed that the requirement should be 8 members have reached the required met in half amount of time. mark and the spending on defence has increased by additional 33 billion USD, Donald Trump also stated that the since last year (Press Conference, July situation of Germany looked a bit 11). This statement was further POLICY PAPER | August 2018
confirmed by Donald Trump, in his own mission is to raise the readiness of the press conference, where he added that NATO troops and improve their the numbers would increase by transferability across the Atlantic and additional 26 billion dollars. Both of European continent. The improvement them agreed that the NATO would be of the troops' mobilization, maritime stronger if the defence spending was to security and logistical support can be be increased, which itself would benefit considered as another points of focus. both the USA and Europe. Because of During the press-conference, the decision made by the allies, Trump Stoltenberg voiced a new initiative of confirmed the commitment of the USA the Alliance called "four 30s". The to the cause. mentioned initiative does not focus on the increase of armed forces, but the From both press-conferences, it can be increase in the readiness of already concluded that all actors – the USA and existing military capabilities. According other NATO states – have reached a to the plan by 2020, the Alliance will be mutual agreement on defence in possession of 30 mechanized spending. Was this decision the result battalions; 30 air squadrons; and 30 of President Trump's harsh talks and combat vessels, all of which will be threats or was this action a by-product ready to use within 30 days or less. of West's realization that NATO is facing serious threats? It is hard to say. During his speech, he also mentioned The fact remains that the only way the about creation of the Cyberspace NATO can withstand all the challenges Operation Centre in Belgium, which is if there are less discords between the will help the Alliance tackle with the members and enough resources to Cyber-attack issue. Together with that accomplish plans. One should not there will be created a new Counter- forget that neither influence, nor Hybrid Support Teams to timely react capabilities of each member states in to the first signs of the hybrid attack the organization are equal, but the main against the allies. strengths remain strong commitment to the cause and equal burden sharing. The second issue, that the General NATO Operations. Secretary has addressed, was terrorism. According to the request by the Iraqi During the press conference, the NATO government, Jens Stoltenberg stated General Secretary also touched upon that there will be some new NATO the subject of future missions of the training missions taking place in Iraq, Alliance. From the Q&A session there led by Canada. As he stated, they will were mention of three main spheres, also establish professional military where the NATO will conduct its peace- schools and academies for the Iraqi keeping missions. forces. At the same time, the NATO members agreed to increase their The first subject to be discussed was the support for Jordan and Tunisia to Alliance’s defence and deterrence further strengthen their capabilities in policy. The main purpose of this fight against terrorism. POLICY PAPER | August 2018
Of course, another matter of focus, is then the Alliance would welcome its the case of Afghanistan. As Stoltenberg 30th member. declared, the only way the NATO would solve this case, if the peace talks Bosnia-Herzegovina together with institution-building take In the Brussels Summit Declaration, the place. For now, the NATO operations in Alliance has also supported the efforts Afghanistan will resume. Stoltenberg of the Bosnia-Herzegovinian side in added in the Q&A session, that this time conducting reforms and are further they would deal with this issue encouraging state's development in the "differently", meaning they would focus region. They called upon the country’s more on strengthening the Afghani leaders not to cease their progress in security forces and let them cope with pursuit "of political, economic, and domestic problems themselves instead defence reforms", so that the state not of directly involving the Alliance. only fulfils criteria of the MAP Because of that both the NATO and the (Membership Action Plan) but also Afghani government have agreed that supports the well-being of its own the local security forces will be financed citizens. The NATO acknowledged, up until 2024. their progress in the registration of immovable defence property. By doing NATO Open Door Policy so the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina & Case of Macedonia will be one step closer to fulfilling the The following matter of importance are requirements for submitting the first the messages that were addressed Annual National Programme (ANP) towards the NATO aspirant countries. report. The leaders of the military As stated by Jens Stoltenberg during Alliance will continue to maintain the press conference, the NATO state strong political dialogue with Bosnia leaders are welcoming the efforts of and Herzegovina, and, as stated in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Brussels Declaration, shall continue Macedonia (Republic of Northern with their support for "the Macedonia) in solving the country's implementation of the Defence Review name dispute with Greece. As is it and other reform efforts" (ibid.: known, the name issue was the last Paragraph 64). remaining setback for this country to become the member of the Alliance, Ukraine which has been disputed for over 27 During the summit there was a special years. Only recently, the solution has statement made in regards to Ukraine. been agreed upon by Prespa The NATO heads of state have met with Agreement, which changes country's the President Petro Poroshenko, where official name into Republic of Northern they have voiced their support towards Macedonia (The Guardian 2018). As the Ukraine. They welcomed Ukraine's re- General Secretary of the NATO has stated aspiration towards membership mentioned, the only thing left is for the and reforms conducted in different state to do is to conduct the referendum. spheres, national security being most If people approve the name change, important. Once more the Alliance POLICY PAPER | August 2018
called upon the Russian side to remove In the same document the NATO their military and reverse illegal member states once again supported occupation of Ukraine's lands. At the "Georgia’s independence, sovereignty same time, it was stated that the process and territorial integrity within its of Ukraine joining the NATO would internationally recognised borders" follow the guidelines of the Bucharest (ibid.: Paragraph 7). Naturally, they summit. Before that, Ukraine would condemned Russia's continuous have to carry on with its progress in the recognition of the de-facto regions of Annual National Programme (ANP) Abkhazia and Tskhinvali/South framework. The allies would support Ossetia, which have been occupied by Ukraine throughout reforms by Russia in 2008's August War and called continuously providing the upon the state to cease human rights Comprehensive Assistance Package violations and military operations on (CAP). As it was mentioned, one of the those territories. highest priorities for the Ukraine and the Alliance is to find an effective way to Together with that the Alliance touched deal with the elements of hybrid upon the subject of artificial warfare. The NATO member states have "borderization" (the construction of discussed about the possibilities of an barbed wire fences and other artificial implementation of "UN-authorized border-like obstacles) process peacekeeping force in the Donbas" as conducted by the Russian forces on the one of the efforts to bring the Minsk Occupation line, a subject that is not agreement into action. often talked about today but is continuously threatening Georgia as an Georgia element of the "creeping Following the subject, there was made a occupation". As stated in the document special declaration by the NATO- these actions not only violate Georgia’s Georgia Commission. In the document sovereignty and territorial integrity, but the NATO praises sets of successful also "contradict the principles of reforms carried out by Georgia in the international law, OSCE principles and ANP framework over the past decade. Russia’s international commitments" Alliance also appreciated Georgia's (ibid.: Paragraph 9). NATO calls upon support for participating in various Russia to reverse its recognition of the NATO missions "in particular its so-called "independence" of the contribution to the NATO Response occupied regions of Georgia; to fulfil the Force and its significant contribution to 12 August 2008 ceasefire EU-mediated the Resolute Support Mission (RSM)" by the EU, "particularly the withdrawal (NATO-Georgia Commission of Russian forces from the territory of Declaration 2018: Paragraph 3), where Georgia; to end its militarisation of Georgia is one of the largest troop these regions; and to stop the contributors, and already reaches many construction of border-like obstacles" NATO member-states standards, (Brussels Summit Declaration 2018: including spending of 2% of its GDP in Paragraph 7). defence. POLICY PAPER | August 2018
In the following segments of the also one of the countries aspiring for the document the Alliance shows support NATO membership. It could also be towards Georgia’s efforts towards explained by the fact that while the initiating a new peace plan "A step to a country did conduct reforms towards Better Future", which is meant to the membership, the steps taken by improve the lives of the people living in Georgia and its contribution into the the occupied regions of Georgia. It NATO operations carry far greater should be added that Georgia will weight than any other NATO aspirant undertake the next joint Black Sea country. training exercises with the NATO in March 2019. It should also be noted that only recently did Ukraine restate its wish to After looking at the NATO statements join the Alliance, as 8 years ago they towards its partner and aspirant abruptly cut relations with the North countries, several conclusions can be Atlantic Treaty Organization. At the made. The recent Prespa agreement same time, all the NATO member states between the Greek and Macedonia do agree that Georgia's contributions in governments gave hope to Former Alliance's peacekeeping operations is Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia's invaluable. It should be mentioned that (FYROM) ascension towards the NATO this country has never faced a single membership. Now it is up to the people regress in the ANP framework and to decide during the upcoming remains a NATO aspirant country referendum will or will not FYROM according to the Bucharest Summit. become the 30th member of the Alliance. The statement regarding NATO-EU Cooperation Bosnia-Herzegovina proves how much The last subject to discuss is the NATO- crucial for the NATO the Balkan region EU cooperation. Before the upcoming is. Despite the fact that it is the least summit it was announced that both the successful aspirant country when it EU and the NATO would expand their comes to conducting reforms, the partnership. Their main goal would be NATO officials are interested to to deal with following issues: hybrid increase their control in the region, warfare; cyber security; counter- given the history of conflicts in that terrorism; military mobility; women region. and security (Joint Declaration on EU- NATO Cooperation 2018: Paragraph 6). It is quite interesting that there was a The cooperation has to follow the joint separate declaration made by the declaration that was signed days before NATO-Georgia commission, while the the actual summit (on July 10th, 2018) case of Ukraine's aspiration towards the by the EU and the NATO Alliance was only addressed by the representatives. chairmen's statement alone. The reason to that is, because there was no During the press conference, it was consensus regarding Ukraine on the stated by Jens Stoltenberg, that NATO- summit, despite the fact that Ukraine is EU partnership will cover dealing with POLICY PAPER | August 2018
challenges in the regions of Middle East Georgia to the Alliance. Putin replied by and Northern Africa; situation on the saying that he was familiar with the Korean Peninsula and constant ways the NATO was working on the breaches of international law from consensus-based decision, though Russia. Currently, there is a constant added that there are always bilateral information exchange between the agreements taking place beforehand. NATO and the EU. It should be He brought the examples of Poland and mentioned that the NATO is supporting Romania, where according to him are the EU-lead operation "Sophia" in the now stationed and deployed elements of Mediterranean through the framework the strategic anti–missile defence of the of its own operation "Sea Guardian". United States, which is targeted towards the Russian Federation and After looking into Brussels Declaration, poses an immediate threat for their it is clear that EU-NATO cooperation national security. Because of that, if the needs to become more intense. The Alliance were to move the NATO Alliance acknowledges developments in infrastructure closer towards their spheres such as joint intelligence, cyber borders, it would be received as a threat security sphere, and common border and "the reaction would be extremely security. The NATO states that only negative" (Interview to Fox News through a tight partnership with the EU Channel, Kremlin.ru 2018). the security of the continent can be ensured. Apart from that, it was stated Two days later, during his meeting with that the non-EU members would ambassadors and permanent continue their contribution towards the representatives of Russia Vladimir mutual cause. From the document it Putin voiced threats towards the NATO seems that the only way the European again. During the conference, he stated countries can counter security threats is that the only correct way of cooperating through mutual cooperation and with the EU is through business intelligence-sharing, rather than each projects and not by deploying new of them acting independently and NATO bases so close to Russia's creating needless bureaucratic barrier. national borders. He highlighted that This is further confirmed by the fact all the economic projects with the that there was no mention of the European states, including Nord rumoured "European Army" in the Stream 1 and 2 gas pipeline projects official document. (which were mentioned previously) are "solely commercial and economically Response from Russia viable; they are not politically charged After the events of summit, it is and have no hidden agenda" (Meeting interesting to look into the response of Ambassadors and Permanent which came from Russia. On July 17th, Representatives of Russia, Kremlin.ru in his interview with Fox News, 2018). Because of that Russia, Vladimir Putin was asked about a according to Putin, would respond possible Russian response in case the appropriately to the aggressive threat NATO was to add either Ukraine or towards its security. He warned the POLICY PAPER | August 2018
NATO member states about integrating However, the fact remains that the Georgia and Ukraine into the Alliance, Alliance is not ready to make bolder saying that such irresponsible actions steps towards frontier countries. It is could have grave consequences. good to see that the Eastern Flank was given considerably more attention By looking into both statements two during this summit, the recent NATO- things become clear. Firstly, that Russia Georgia declaration also showed that has basically repeated their statement this time the Alliance is ready for more voiced during the 2007 Munich practical partnership opportunities, but Conference about the NATO at the same time, the same Alliance is enlargement, where the threatened to lacking strong political will to make a respond "asymmetrically" in case the decisive step. If according to the NATO were to even think about Chairman's Statement, Ukraine has yet expanding close to the Russian to deliver tangible results of its reforms, territories. This "asymmetric response" then Georgia's reform progress is was later on manifested into a Russian remarkable. It is a burden-sharing aggression on Georgia's land in 2008, country with most progress and most and the annexation of Crimea in 2014. advanced aspirant country, which has Putin proves once again, that no matter all "practical tools to prepare for the how many times the relations with the NATO membership"(NATO-Georgia West are to reset, he will never let go of Declaration, 2018: Paragraph 6). "spheres of privileged interests". Despite such a bright example, the NATO is unable to reach consensus on Secondly, it can be said from Putin's granting the MAP to Georgia. What they interview, that Russians are more often overlook, is the fact that this very convinced about the enlargement and indecisiveness might benefit Russia strengthening of the NATO, then the and, moreover, encourage it to take NATO members themselves. This can more active steps in seizing control over be viewed by the fact that the overall frontier countries. tone of the Brussels declaration is softer than the one of the Warsaw summit. Conclusion Another argument could be the fact that After looking into all the events that despite such positive tone of an "open took place during the summit, it door policy" seen throughout the becomes clear why this particular event documents, there is a noticeable was essential. Many important issues indecisiveness. In the Brussels were addressed. Unlike the previous Declaration it was shown that Former summit, where the main issue was the Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia's case of Russian aggression, here the efforts to resolve the name dispute was number one priority seemed to be highly welcomed by the NATO member attempts to settle the discord regarding states. The perspective of Bosnia- the budget spending. This goal was Herzegovina towards the membership achieved. At the same time, the NATO has also been emphasized in the has changed its method regarding with documents. Afghanistan. It was settled that the POLICY PAPER | August 2018
NATO would focus more on training the local forces in dealing with the security threats. Additionally, the NATO has decided to focus on improvement of the already existing capabilities and thinking more about quick transportation and mobilization of those resources. While the Alliance did condemn various cases where Russia violated international law, the note of the Brussels Declaration was softer, despite the fact that Russia had recently interfered in the elections of several European countries and had allegedly used a nerve agent in the UK. On the other hand, the separate declaration regarding the NATO's partnership with Georgia allowed for the issue of Russian aggression to resurface again in the official documents, given the fact that the ongoing "borderization" process was previously not given enough alarm from the West. Even though this time it was not an enlargement summit, the NATO might see its new member in the context of FYROM, once the referendum allows for it. Although the EU-NATO cooperation has not shown any new innovative, both of the parties seemed to have decided to join forces in several security areas. The 2018 NATO Brussels Summit did send several messages, and show willingness of the Alliance to the commitment given the tense political background during which the event took place. For a summit which was primarily arranged in order to resolve the issue of defence spending, it had delivered much more. POLICY PAPER | August 2018
References Brussels Declaration on Transatlantic Security and Solidarity". NATO. July 11, 2018. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_156620.htm "Brussels Summit Declaration". NATO. July 11, 2018. Accessed July 14, 2018. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_156624.htm "NATO-Georgia Commission Declaration at the Brussels Summit". NATO. July 12, 2018. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_156627.htm?selectedLocale=en "Chairman’s Statement on NATO-Ukraine Following the Meeting of the North Atlantic Council with Georgia and Ukraine at the Brussels Summit". NATO. July 12, 2018. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_156623.htm?selectedLocale=en "Remarks by President Trump at Press Conference after NATO Summit | Brussels, Belgium". WhiteHouse.gov. July 12, 2018. Accessed July 16, 2018. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-press- conference-nato-summit-brussels-belgium/. "Press Conference by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg Following the Meeting of the North Atlantic Council at the Level of Heads of State and Government (NATO Summit Brussels)". NATO. July 11, 2018. Accessed July 16, 2018. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_156733.htm "Warsaw Summit Communiqué". NATO. July 9, 2016. Accessed July 18, 2018. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_133169.htm "Joint Declaration on EU-NATO Cooperation". NATO. July 10, 2018. Accessed July 18, 2018. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_156626.htm "Projects: Nord Stream 2". Gazprom Export. Accessed July 20, 2018. http://www.gazpromexport.ru/en/projects/5/ "Nord Stream 1&2 Infographics". Gazprom Export. Accessed July 20, 2018. http://www.gazpromexport.ru/content/image/nordstream2_infographics.png "Remarks by President Trump and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at Bilateral Breakfast". WhiteHousegov. July 11, 2018. Accessed, July 14, 2018. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-nato- secretary-general-jens-stoltenberg-bilateral-breakfast/ "Macedonia Changes Name, Ending Bitter Dispute with Greece". The Guardian. June 17, 2018. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/17/macedonia-greece- dispute-name-accord-prespa "Interview to Fox News Channel". Kremlin.ru. July 17, 2018. Accessed July 20, 2018. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58019 POLICY PAPER | August 2018
"Meeting of Ambassadors and Permanent Representatives of Russia". July 19, 2018. Accessed July 21, 2018. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58037 POLICY PAPER | August 2018
You can also read