2022-23 NHL BETTING GUIDE - VSIN
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Norris Trophy Front-runner
Cale Makar and The Avalanche
are favorites (+380) to repeat
as stanley cup champions
2022-23 NHL
Betting GuIDE
FEATURING:
• In-depth previews for all 32 teams
• Statistics, Stanley Cup odds, point total projections,
schedule analysis and more from VSiN expert Andy MacNeil
• Three tips for new NHL bettors this season
1
Contents
FEATURES DIVISION AND TEAM INDEX
3 Atlantic Preview....................................................................................................... 12
Boston Bruins....................................................................................................................13
Welcome to the 2022 Buffalo Sabres..................................................................................................................14
VSiN NHL Betting Guide Detroit Red Wings.............................................................................................................15
Florida Panthers................................................................................................................16
Montreal Canadiens..........................................................................................................17
Ottawa Senators...............................................................................................................18
4 Tampa Bay Lightning.........................................................................................................19
Three Things New NHL Bettors Toronto Maple Leafs......................................................................................................... 20
Should Know Before Getting Started
Metropolitan Preview.............................................................................................. 21
Carolina Hurricanes......................................................................................................... 22
Columbus Blue Jackets...................................................................................................... 23
5 New Jersey Devils............................................................................................................ 24
Learn the Basics: New York Islanders.......................................................................................................... 25
Study Hockey Stats 101 New York Rangers............................................................................................................ 26
Philadelphia Flyers........................................................................................................... 27
Pittsburgh Penguins........................................................................................................... 28
Washington Capitals......................................................................................................... 29
7
What Type of Hockey Central Preview....................................................................................................... 30
Arizona Coyotes...............................................................................................................31
Handicapper Are You?
Chicago Blackhawks......................................................................................................... 32
Colorado Avalanche........................................................................................................ 33
Dallas Stars...................................................................................................................... 34
8 Minnesota Wild................................................................................................................ 35
Rookies to Watch in 2022-23 Nashville Predators.......................................................................................................... 36
St. Louis Blues...................................................................................................................37
Winnipeg Jets.................................................................................................................. 38
10 Pacific Preview......................................................................................................... 39
Best Bets – Player Awards in 2022-23 Anaheim Ducks................................................................................................................ 40
Calgary Flames................................................................................................................ 41
Edmonton Oilers.............................................................................................................. 42
Los Angeles Kings............................................................................................................. 43
48 San Jose Sharks............................................................................................................... 44
2022-23 NHL Schedule Seattle Kraken.................................................................................................................. 45
Vancouver Canucks.......................................................................................................... 46
with ‘Tired Spots’
Vegas Golden Knights...................................................................................................... 47
TERMS TO KNOW
All situations: All play during regulation and overtime. FF%: Percentage of total Fenwick in games that team played that are for that team.
Even strength: Play when both teams have the same number of players on the ice. Shots: Any shot attempt on net (goals and shots on net) outside of the shootout.
5-on-5: Play when both teams have five skaters and a goalie on the ice. SF: Count of shots for that team.
5-on-5 score adjusted: The metric but adjusted for score effects. SA: Count of shots against that team.
GP: Games played. SF/60: Rate of shots for that team per 60 minutes of play.
TOI: Total amount of time played. SA/60: Rate of shots against that team per 60 minutes of play.
Corsi: Any shot attempt (goals, shots on net, misses and blocks) outside of the shootout. SF%: Percentage of total shots in games that team played that are for that team.
Referred to as SAT by the NHL. Goals: Any goal outside of the shootout.
CF: Count of Corsi for that team. GF: Count of goals for that team.
CA: Count of Corsi against that team. GA: Count of goals against that team.
CF/60: Rate of Corsi for that team per 60 minutes of play. GF/60: Rate of goals for that team per 60 minutes of play.
CA/60: Rate of Corsi against that team per 60 minutes of play. GA/60: Rate of goals against that team per 60 minutes of play.
CF%: Percentage of total Corsi in games that team played that are for that team. GF%: Percentage of total goals in that game that are for that team.
Fenwick: Any unblocked shot attempt (goals, shots on net and misses) outside of the xGF: Count of expected goals for that team.
shootout. Referred to as USAT by the NHL. xGA: Count of expected goals against that team.
FF: Count of Fenwick for that team. xGF60: Rate of expected goals for that team.
FA: Count of Fenwick against that team. xGA60: Rate of expected goals against that team.
FF/60: Rate of Fenwick for that team per 60 minutes of play. xGF%: Percentage of expected goals in that game that are for that team.
FA/60: Rate of Fenwick against that team per 60 minutes of play.
VSIN STAFF/CONTRIBUTORS
EDITOR: Dan Mann
LAYOUT AND DESIGN: Matt Devine ODDS WITHIN GUIDE ARE TAKEN FROM DRAFTKINGS. ALL ODDS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
VP OF DIGITAL CONTENT: Ben Fawkes STATISTICS VIA EVOLVING HOCKEY AND NATURAL STAT TRICK.
photos by USA Today Sports Images
2
Welcome to VSiN’s Third Annual 2022-23 NHL Betting Guide.
The 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs were incredible theater, but the regular season is the best
time to bet on hockey. While just about everyone is focused on football, I go to work on
hockey, the sport that I know best. For a lot of you, your best bet is to make futures wagers
before the puck drops on the 2022-23 regular season. You’d be hard pressed to find more
value at any other point in the season. As you can see below, my projections are among the
most accurate in the industry dating back to when I first released them in 2018-19.
Average error of season
FORECASTER 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
long predictions:
Andy MacNeil 7.74 7.37 7.56 12.42
The Athletic 7.85 7.05 7.46 12.75
My process is fairly simple:
Money Puck 9.49 8.72 9.11 13.65
I build projections using
Hockey Viz 10.7 9.05 9.88 14.51
modern hockey statistics
Betting Market 8.08 7.34 7.71 12.34
and then I simulate the
season thousands of times.
The average results (down
to one decimal place) are what you will find in various tables throughout this guide. I don’t
anchor my predictions to the betting market in any way, and I try my best to be as objective
as possible. It doesn’t do me any good to be biased toward a team or players for petty
reasons. If I did that, I might make bad predictions … and that’s not good for my career. I
want you to win even if you’re a fan of the (insert team). Good luck.
All odds listed in the guide are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. All statistics via Evolving
Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.
Andy MacNeil
@DigitalGambler
3
Three Things New
NHL Bettors Should
Know Before
Getting Started
By Andy MacNeil
Handicapping and betting on NHL hockey on a nightly basis over the course of several months and 82 regular-season games (not to mention a lengthy
Stanley Cup Playoffs) can be exhausting.
Here are three things for new NHL bettors to know before the season begins:
THINGS AREN’T ALWAYS AS THEY SEEM
Hockey is a chaotic sport that is heavily influenced by luck. In fact, some studies suggest that if placed on the luck-skill continuum,
hockey would be somewhere in the middle. The sport doesn’t do a good job of rewarding skill. Betting on hockey will test you, and
how easily you’re fooled by variance. Remember: Shots and scoring chances matter more than goals in a small sample size, so don’t
be quick to judge a team until you look under the hood. More about this subject later in the guide.
HOCKEY IS EVOLVING
-500
Favorites won 64% of the games last season, up a couple of percentage points from
the year prior, which makes sense given the rise of analytics. Teams seem to be
playing in a more optimal way than ever before, and scoring is up as a result. It’s
only natural that the better teams would win more often under these circumstances.
It remains to be seen whether this is the new norm or not, though. The number of
favorites with an implied win probability of 70% or higher has risen a lot over the
last three seasons.
In 2019-20, less than 5% of games featured a favorite that big, but that number
jumped to around 10% in 2021-22 and to more than 15% last season. The games
are more lopsided than they’ve ever been, so don’t be shocked to see a -500
50%
favorite occasionally. The gap between the NHL’s best and worst teams is huge.
THE REGULAR SEASON IS A GRIND
The 1,312-game regular season stretches across eight months
and only breaks twice: Three days during the holidays and
four days around the All-Star Game. Teams play every
other day and frequently play on short rest. If you want an
example of how that plays into the results, here it is: Over the
last five seasons, home teams have won 55% of the games,
but their win rate dropped to 50% in the second half of back-
to-back games. The schedule can be just as taxing on bettors,
so take care of yourself and your mental health.
4
Learn the Basics:
Study Hockey
Stats 101
By Andy MacNeil
Consider this your crash course in hockey analytics. It won’t explore a number to players based on how much value they have contributed
particularly complex topics, but it will provide you with a solid foundation compared with what we would expect from a replacement-level player. WAR
that will make it easier to follow the game and find value in the betting and GAR are interchangeable, as goals are just the currency used to obtain
market. wins. A win is worth about 5.5 goals.
Here are a some explanations for stats you should know as a hockey bettor:
MAKING USE OF METRICS
SHOT ATTEMPTS Whether talking about Corsi, Fenwick or expected goals, these metrics are
best expressed in ratio (percentage) or rate (per 60 minutes). For example,
Corsi is the foundation on which hockey analytics were built. While it’s if a team registered six shot attempts and allowed four, we would say it
sometimes referred to as an advanced statistic, there’s nothing advanced owned 60% of the shot share.
about it. At its core, Corsi is just plus-minus for shot attempts. It’s useful
because the shot-attempt differential actually does a better job of predicting Rate stats allow us to measure efficiency. Goals per 60 minutes, for example,
future goal differential than past goal differential does. is pretty self-explanatory. It tells us how many goals a team scores per 60
minutes of play, which could come in handy when pricing games and period
In other words, if halfway through a season a team has a shot differential of totals.
+75 but has been outscored by five goals, research has shown that it is more
likely to have a positive goal differential in the second half. Scoring goals
requires skill, but it’s also heavily influenced by luck. Routinely outshooting STRENGTH STATES
your opponents, however, is a more repeatable skill – and one that can be
relied on. Five players and a goalie take the ice for each team at the start of a game.
But because of penalties, teams sometimes play up or down a man. Teams
Fenwick is nearly identical in definition except for one difference. Corsi can play at even strength (5-on-5, 4-on-4, 3-on-3), on the power play (5-on-
counts shots that hit the net, missed shots and blocked shots; Fenwick does 4, 5-on-3, 4-on-3) or on the penalty kill (4-on-5, 3-on-5, 3-on-4). The strategy
not count blocked shots. Corsi is generally more predictive than Fenwick, but will change depending on the situation, however, which is why it’s important
the latter is still useful when analyzing certain situations. to isolate each area of the game and analyze it on its own.
Most of the time, we should be talking about 5-on-5 play because it is the
EXPECTED GOALS most frequent situation. Another reason for mainly focusing on 5-on-5 is
that both teams have a chance to drive play. At both the team and player
The previous metrics have flaws that might have become apparent when you level, it’s important to separate performance analysis based on individual
read their definitions. When it comes to shot attempts, a shot from the far situations. However, one exception to the rule exists. Sports bettors
offensive zone that somehow makes its way to the goaltender for an easy reference expected goals during all situations to judge whether or not the
save is counted the same as a shot from 5 feet in front of the net that would teams they bet on should have won.
require great skill – or luck – to stop. These are the issues that expected-
goals models aim to address.
BEWARE OF BOX-SCORE BIAS
Expected-goals models, like the one found at the stats website Evolving
Hockey, weigh each unblocked shot attempt based on a number of variables It’s easy to look at the box score and jump to the conclusion that whoever
to determine the likelihood of a shot finding the back of the net. Shot location had more shots on goal was the better team, but that isn’t necessarily the
is a big one, but shot type and angle are also taken into account. Some case. Score effects are a well-researched phenomenon across all sports,
models even factor in things like rebounds and whether a shot was off a rush. especially in the NHL. Teams with a lead, particularly late in games, will
often sacrifice offensive opportunities in an effort to protect a lead. Teams
The debate is ongoing on whether expected-goals models are more that are trailing will see this opening and somewhat abandon their defensive
predictive of future goals than Corsi. Using both metrics is common, as Corsi structure to try to tie the game.
sort of tells us who had the territorial advantage, while expected goals lets
us know if they also won the shot-quality battle. Most expected goals do not Consider the following scenarios:
take an individual shooter’s talent into account.
• Team A was outshot 40-20 and outchanced 15-7. Team A won the game
1-0, scoring in the final couple of minutes.
GOALS ABOVE REPLACEMENT (GAR) • Team B was outshot 40-20 and outchanced 15-7. Team B won the game
4-3 but led 4-0 after the first period.
A WAR (Wins Above Replacement) model attempts to assign a total value
for every player, which represents how much that player contributed to his At first blush, these performances may seem similar. The goal, shot and
team in a single number. Evolving Hockey’s GAR is a metric that assigns scoring-chance differentials were the same, but Team A won a close game,
5
meaning both teams were incentivized to drive play and create scoring 60 minutes of playing time. It is calculated by taking the number of goals
opportunities. against, multiplying that by 60 and then dividing by the number of minutes
played.
On the other hand, Team B was in a game in which it dominated the first
period, jumping to a sizable lead. Because of strategic and behavioral GAA is a team statistic, though, and should not be applied to an
tendencies, however, Team B sat on the lead and let the opponent get back individual goaltender because it is altered by factors completely out of
into the game. It’s because of score effects that score adjustments must be a goaltender’s control. They don’t control how many shots they face or
made. where the shots are coming from. They definitely can’t control how many
penalties their team takes. All these things influence a goaltender’s GAA,
Score adjustments are simply a method of weighting events. Teams get more so let’s throw it out.
credit for generating shots and chances with a lead and less credit for doing
so when trailing. Failing to understand score effects can lead inexperienced Save percentage (Sv%) is pretty self-explanatory. It’s flawed, but it’s
hockey bettors to believe that a trailing team offers in-game value simply definitely the better of the two. It is calculated by dividing the number of
because it is outshooting and outchancing the team with the lead. However, saves by the number of shots on goal. Although goaltenders can’t control
even the worst teams typically outshoot their opponents when they’re trailing. how many shots they face, at least save percentage tells you something,
unlike goals-against average.
GOALTENDING METRICS Goals saved above average (GSAA) tells us how good or bad a goaltender
is relative to league average, but since shot quality isn’t taken into account,
For decades, the two most commonly cited statistics when talking about Evolving Hockey’s goals saved above expected (GSAx) is better. GSAx is
goaltenders have been goals-against average and save percentage. Goals- calculated by taking the number of goals a goaltender allows and subtracting
against average (GAA) is the number of goals a goaltender allows per it from his expected goals against. Wins are not a goaltender stat.
Igor Shesterkin led the NHL
last season with 37.18 GSAx.
6
What Type
of Hockey
Handicapper
Are You?
By Andy MacNeil
For many of you with families and 9-5 jobs, sticking to futures wagers is going to be your best bet because you don’t have the time to be on the grind like I
do. Betting on hockey is my life and has been for quite some time. I wake up when most people in the northern hemisphere are still in a deep sleep. I do this
in order to get an edge on my competition, and I’m usually looking ahead several days in advance, so I already have a good idea of what my morning looks
like. The methods I use are relatively sophisticated and I’ve been known to spend up to 14 hours at my workstation in a single day depending on the types of
situations I’m dealing with.
If you want to be on the grind, here are the pros and cons of taking various approaches:
ACT ON INFORMATION
If five minutes ago, it was announced that Connor McDavid will miss a game, you’re too late – it’s already been accounted for in the game odds. Good
bets have a very short shelf life, too, so even playing the information game – a big part of my repertoire years ago – doesn’t yield the same type of results.
Remember: This is a race, and it’s more competitive than ever. A decade or two ago, it might have been possible to catch up with the news of the day during
your coffee break and still obtain some value.
Nowadays, markets are incredibly reactionary and bettors have minutes, or even seconds, to act on good information. This approach isn’t practical for the
vast majority of people. Bettors can speculate on things based on the information that’s available to them and hope to get ahead of the crowd, but speculative
angles tend to get bet into shape early before the sun comes up. There are still opportunities to profit from injury news or unexpected changes at the
goaltending position, but it’s harder to pull off these days as your competition will likely get the information at the same time that you do. Value is dished out
on a first-come, first-serve basis.
ORIGINATE ODDS
The most logical way to go about finding value in betting markets is to create odds. How a bettor goes about doing this is up to him or her, but there are
certain mathematical processes and statistical truths that must be learned. As a result, it can take a long time to get to a point where this process generates
anything of value. However, since the alternative is guessing and hacking things together, this process creates value by creating an environment where a
handicapper can learn and grow. There are countless models you can follow – some better than others – but once a bettor can estimate the underlying
probability of events they can begin to compare odds to those offered by sportsbooks.
If you are going to do this, though, I would suggest betting overnight. Chances are that the overnight limits are sufficient for most bettors, and it gives
beginners a chance to eat before the feeding frenzy on game day. Bettors don’t have to restrict themselves to betting overnight lines, but they must learn to
take advantage of this time because most professional bettors will have their attention focused on bigger markets. Some retail sportsbooks post lines far before
any of the market makers do. This is the time to shine for those who can stay ahead of the relentless regular season schedule.
MINE DATA
This process involves analyzing data to discern trends and patterns. It’s the approach a lot of bettors take thanks to help from the media who tend to signal-
boost betting trends. People that mine data will typically come up with trends like: Teams playing on the road after losing two games at home have had an
11.7% return on investment since 2007-08. Data mining is only as good as the user’s ability to interpret its patterns and relationships. The process allows for
the discovery of patterns and trends, but it does not establish a causal relationship. There’s nothing wrong with asking questions, but mining data is only the
beginning. Without rigorous statistical analysis, the data is noisy and incomplete.
7
Rookies to Every season, players try to crack NHL lineups
for the first time. Some are fresh out of the NHL
Entry Draft, while others have been developing in
Watch in
other pro leagues around the world. Either way,
predicting how first-year players will fare remains
very challenging. However, with time – saym
the first 15-20 games – bettors will be able to
distinguish the players that are ready to make an
2022-23
impact from those that need more time to develop.
For now, though, here’s a list of of the 15 rookies
(sorted by best-to-worst odds) that I believe are
most likely to make an impact in 2022-23.
By Andy MacNeil
ROOKIE CALDER TROPHY ODDS
MASON MCTAVISH – FWD – 2021 NO. 3 PICK (ANAHEIM DUCKS)
Easily the best player at the World Junior Hockey Championship, Mason MacTavish is a
favorite to win the Calder Trophy in 2022-23, and rightfully so. He’s a high-end prospect that
has the opportunity to be a top-line player in Anaheim alongside the Ducks’ franchise player,
+400
Trevor Zegras. MacTavish is a talented player, but it’s his work rate that separates him from a
lot of other players his age.
OWEN POWER – DEF – 2021 NO. 1 PICK (BUFFALO SABRES)
Power showed a lot of promise in the eight games he played with the Buffalo Sabres last
season and there is no doubt he’s ready for the NHL. He would be an easy pick to win the
Calder Trophy most years, but there’s one problem: Rasmus Dahlin is probably going to get
+450
most, if not all, of the top power play minutes. Having that kind of depth is great for the team,
but it doesn’t position Power to potentially run away with the award like he might if he was
the top guy on the blue line. The talent is there, though.
MATTY BENIERS – FWD –2021 NO. 2 PICK (SEATTLE KRAKEN)
Beniers probably won’t score at almost a point-per-game pace like he did during his nine
games with Seattle in 2021-22, but never say never. The almost 20-year-old could end up
centering the Kraken’s top line, which isn’t something that many first-year players get to do.
+500
It’s no wonder Beniers is among the favorites to be named Rookie of the Year.
KENT JOHNSON – FWD – 2021 NO. 5 PICK (COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS)
We’ll have a good idea on whether Johnson is going to find himself in a top-nine role, but
he’s a player with a high ceiling on a team that doesn’t have a whole lot of offensive talent.
Johnson could even find himself playing between Johnny Gaudreau and Patrick Laine if he’s
12-1
lucky.
COLE PERFETTI – FWD – 2020 NO. 10 PICK (WINNIPEG JETS)
Perfetti has little experience with the big club, but this season, under a new head coach.
Perfetti will likely get top-six minutes alongside players like Pierre-Luc Dubois and Kyle
Connor. I don’t know where Perfetti ranks among his rookie classmates, but he has a glorious
12-1
opportunity.
WILLIAM EKLUND – FWD – 2021 NO. 7 PICK (SAN JOSE SHARKS)
A lot of people were surprised that the San Jose Sharks chose to send William Eklund back to
Europe after nine games last season, but it was another example of how the organization is
reluctant to rebuild. Eklund should get playing time in San Jose this season, though, and given
16-1
that he’s been playing against men in the Swedish Hockey League for the past two seasons, the
soon-to-be 20-year-old forward should be prepared for what’s to come in his rookie season.
8
ROOKIE CALDER TROPHY ODDS
JACK QUINN – FWD – 2020 NO. 8 PICK (BUFFALO SABRES)
Quinn had a great year in the American Hockey League, finishing among the top 20 in scoring.
He will get a chance to play in the Sabres’ top nine. Expectations shouldn’t be too high for the
20-year-old, but he’s probably the Sabres’ most highly-touted prospect outside of Owen Power.
16-1
MARCO ROSSI – FWD – 2020 NO. 9 PICK (MINNESOTA WILD)
Rossi missed out on jumping to the NHL last season due to complications from COVID, but he
performed well in the American Hockey League and should be relied upon in a top-nine role
with the big club in 2022-23.
16-1
SHANE WRIGHT – FWD – 2022 NO. 4 PICK (SEATTLE KRAKEN)
20--1
Wright isn’t a lock to make the Kraken like Beniers is, but he’s made his intentions clear: He
wants to play in the NHL this season. Seattle might just open up a spot for him, too. After all,
this team is in desperate need of some talented shooters.
JURAJ SLAFKOVSKY – FWD – 2022 NO. 1 PICK (MONTREAL CANADIENS)
Montreal shocked the hockey world when they passed on Shane Wright to draft Slafkovsky
first overall, but he looks to be ready for the NHL, and if that’s the case, the 6-4 forward
could find himself on one of the Canadiens’ top scoring lines.
20-1
SIMON EDVINSSON – FWD – 2021 NO. 6 PICK (DETROIT RED WINGS)
Defenseman Moritz Seider set a high bar when he won the Calder Trophy in his first season
with the Detroit Red Wings. We shouldn’t expect Simon Edvinsson to do the same, but he’s
coming off a great season playing against men in the Swedish Hockey League and if he’s 35-1
ready for the NHL, the Red Wings can’t afford to turn him away.
AATU RATY – FWD – 2021 NO. 52 PICK (NEW YORK ISLANDERS)
Raty will turn 20 in early November and he could get an opportunity on an Islanders
team that’s looking for scoring. He has experience playing against men in the Finnish
Elite League and looks to have found his footing after posting 40 points in 41 games with 50-1
Mikkelin Jukurit.
JAKE NEIGHBORS – FWD – 2020 NO. 26 PICK (ST. LOUIS BLUES)
St. Louis didn’t add to its forward group presumably to give Neighbors a chance. He was
a solid player in the Western Hockey League but doesn’t have any experience at the pro
level.
50-1
JAKOB PELLETIER – FWD – 2019 NO. 26 PICK (CALGARY FLAMES)
After putting up great numbers in the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League, Pelletier scored
62 points in his first 66 games in the American Hockey League. It will be hard for him to crack
the Flames’ lineup, but the 21-year-old is a player the Flames can call upon should a spot 60-1
open up.
LOGAN STANKOVEN – FWD – 2021 NO. 47 (DALLAS STARS)
Stankoven, in the eyes of many, was a first-round talent that dropped to the second round.
He put up 104 points in 59 games in the WHL last season and scored 10 points in seven
games with Team Canada at the World Junior Hockey Championship. The Stars need
NA
offense, and that means Stankoven could be considered for a spot in the top nine at some
point.
JAKE SANDERSON – DEF – 2020 NO. 5 PICK (OTTAWA SENATORS)
Sanderson is projected to get top-four minutes in Ottawa, but like Thomas Chabot, the
Senators’ best defenseman, he plays on the left side. Chabot is the current quarterback of the
top power play unit and that isn’t going to change any time soon.
NA
9BEST BETS PLAYER AWARDS IN 2022-23 Cale Makar By Andy MacNeil Betting on player futures is all about finding skaters and goaltenders with longer odds who could potentially win a specific award with a little help from the hockey gods. HART TROPHY (MVP) Cale Makar (15-1) Last year’s winner, Auston Matthews, is in the running to repeat as the league’s most valuable player, but Connor McDavid is the favorite to win the Hart Trophy in 2022-23. That shouldn’t come as a surprise, either. McDavid’s baseline seems to be around 125 points, but we know his ceiling is much higher than that, and it’s also higher than any other player in the league. If you’re betting on a player other than McDavid, you’re going to be in tough if he’s able to play all 82 games. And if you’re betting on Auston Matthews, you’d better hope he’s able to score 60 goals and top 100 points again. However, while some might be attracted to +250, or +400, I can’t help but be drawn to defenseman Cale Makar at 15/1. Sure, a defenseman hasn’t won the award in over 20 years, but it’s been just as long since we’ve seen anybody play the position as good as Makar. Voters are enamored with Makar right now after winning both the Norris and Conn Smythe last season. A defender hasn’t put up 100 points in the regular season since 1991-92, but Makar looks like a player that could change that. He’s the only other player (aside from maybe his teammate Nathan MacKinnon) that’s on the same level as McDavid and Matthews. Jonathan Huberdeau (35-1) The Flames don’t have two 100-point players anymore, as Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau are no longer with the team, but they might have one. Only two players scored more points than Jonathan Huberdeau in 2021-22. The 29-year-old put up 115 points in 80 games with the Panthers last season. In any other season, Huberdeau probably would’ve been nominated for the Hart Trophy, but Igor Shesterkin and Auston Matthews had seasons that were uniquely impressive, and Connor McDavid is automatic. Those types of storylines don’t play out every season, and Huberdeau is a player that might stand out a little more now that he won’t be penalized by pundits for playing on a stacked team. Calgary is the favorite to win the Pacific Division in 2022-23, and Huberdeau could catch the attention of voters if he is the only member of the Flames that surpasses the century mark. Nikita Kucherov (20-1) Despite all the playoff hockey that the Lightning’s core group has played over the last three seasons, Nikita Kucherov has only played 115 regular games since his Hart Trophy-winning season in 2018-19 when he scored 128 points. So, while there are a lot of miles on the 29-year-old Russian, he should be relatively healthy to start the 2022-23 season. The Lightning are going to need him, too, as Ondrej Palat is now a member of the Devils and Anthony Cirelli is expected to miss the start of the season. Kucherov’s point totals may not have stood out last season, but only four players produced points at a higher rate per 60 minutes than he did. Kucherov scored 69 points in 47 games last season which works out to 4.41 points per 60 minutes. If Kucherov can play anywhere close to 82 games he will be one of the top scorers in the league.
MOST GOALS (ROCKET RICHARD TROPHY)
David Pastrnak David Pastrnak (20-1)
Maple Leafs’ superstar Auston Matthews became the first player to
score 60 goals since 2011-12 and won his second Rocket Richard
Trophy, so naturally, he’s a big favorite (+190) to win the award in
2022-23. He’s scored 2.3 goals per 60 minutes over the last two
seasons, which is much better than the 1.7 goals per 60 minutes
that Leon Draisatl has produced during that same time. However,
although scoring goals is a talent, a lot has to go right for a player
to lead the league in the category. Instead, I would look to Boston
Bruins’ sniper David Pastrnak, a former winner of the award. Only
Matthews and Alex Ovechkin have scored goals at a higher rate
than Pastrnak has over the last three seasons, and while the 26-year-
old did slump through parts of the last two seasons, he’s entering the
final year of his contract and knows he has to perform.
Alex DeBrincat (25-1)
Only a handful of players have produced more goals than 24-year-
old Alex DeBrincat has over the last two seasons, and he’s hit the 40-
goal mark twice already in his career. There’s a chance that he could
end up playing alongside Claude Giroux, a prolific playmaker, and
Tim Stutzle, the Senators’ sophomore star and highest-paid player
in franchise history. In 2020-21, DeBrincat scored 32 goals in 52
games, which would work out to about 50 over a full season, so this
is a player that definitely has the potential to be among the league
leaders in scoring.
VEZINA TROPHY (BEST GOALTENDER)
Darcy Kuemper (25-1)
Darcy Kuemper was one of the best goaltenders during the regular
season and won a Stanley Cup with the Colorado Avalanche, but it Darcy Kuemper
still seems like he has something to prove heading into 2022-23. Now
a member of the Washington Capitals, Kuemper will have a chance
to do just that. The 32-year-old is on the wrong side of the age curve,
but he’s coming off a season in which he saved approximately 16
goals above average (fifth best in the league) and although he
wasn’t good in the playoffs, he had to battle to be as good as he
was. Kuemper suffered an eye injury in the playoffs and to come
back from that and be even better than he was in 2021-22 is in his
range of outcomes. It doesn’t hurt either that Washington is a good
defensive team.
Juuse Saros (10-1)
The bet isn’t as intriguing as it was heading into the 2021-22 season
at 24/1, now that the book is out on goaltender Juuse Saros.
However, 10/1 is still an appealing price given that the 27-year-old
goaltender has been worthy of the distinction for a while. Saros has
an elite .920 save percentage since entering the league full time in
2016-17 and the only question is, can he separate himself from the
likes of Igor Shesterkin, Ilya Sorokin and Andrei Vasilevskiy? The
Predators’ odds of winning the Central Division (10/1) are the same
as Saros’ odds of winning the Vezina, because that’s what it will
probably take to stand out among the crowd.Atlantic
Division
Preview
POINT PROJECTIONS DIVISION WINNER PROJECTIONS WIN PROJECTIONS
Team Projected Points Team Win % Odds Team Wins
Toronto 106.1 Toronto 34.1% +193 Toronto 48.9
Tampa Bay 104 Tampa Bay 24.6% +306 Tampa Bay 47.7
Florida 103.8 Florida 23.8% +320 Florida 47.6
Boston 101.7 Boston 16.6% +502 Boston 46.5
Ottawa 87.4 Ottawa 0.7% +14185 Ottawa 38.3
Detroit 84.7 Detroit 0.1% +99900 Detroit 36.8
Buffalo 78.5 Buffalo 0.0% N/A Buffalo 33.3
Montreal 72.8 Montreal 0.0% N/A Montreal 30.1
PROJECTED MAKE/MISS PLAYOFF ODDS WIN STANLEY CUP
Team Make % Make Odds Miss % Miss Odds Team Win % Odds
Toronto 94.1% -1595 5.9% +1595 Toronto 7.8% +1182
Tampa Bay 90.5% -953 9.5% +953 Tampa Bay 6.1% +1539
Florida 89.8% -880 10.2% +880 Florida 5.9% +1595
Boston 85.0% -567 15.0% +567 Boston 4.7% +2028
Ottawa 22.4% +346 77.6% -346 Ottawa 0.5% +19900
Detroit 14.6% +585 85.4% -585 Detroit 0.2% +49900
Buffalo 3.6% +2678 96.4% -2678 Buffalo 0.0% N/A
Montreal 0.7% N/A 99.3% -14186 Montreal 0.0% N/A
12BOSTON
Bruins
ATLANTIC DIVISION
ANDY MACNEIL PROJECTIONS
N/A (0.0%) WIN DIVISION: +502 (16.6%) MAKE PLAYOFFS: -567 (85.0%)
POINTS: 101.7 MISS PLAYOFFS: +567 (15.0%)
WINS: 46.5 WIN STANLEY CUP: +2028 (4.7%)
Few teams have been a contender as long as the Bruins, but Patrice Bergeron and Brad
Marchand aren’t going to be around forever, and general manager Don Sweeney has
apparently seen the writing on the wall. Changes have been made, and more are coming, but
in the short term, the team looks stronger than it has in years. However, so does the Atlantic
Division, and that makes it hard for the Bruins to stand out. ODDS TO WIN STANLEY CUP
OFFENSE
Sweeney fired coach Bruce Cassidy following the Bruins’ early exit from the playoffs, citing
a need for a new voice in the room. According to Sweeney, the players claimed they haven’t
28-1
been able to drive the bus as far as decision-making goes, which they felt held them back from
reaching their full potential on offense. The Bruins were never among the top offensive teams
under Cassidy, and they’re hoping that will change under new coach Jim Montgomery, who, by BEST BET
his own admission, likes to let his horses run.
• WIN STANLEY CUP (28-1)
Marchand, Charlie McAvoy and Matt Grzelcyk are all expected to miss the first couple of • WIN ATLANTIC DIVISION
months while they recover from offseason surgeries, so we won’t get a good look at this team
until sometime in December. Boston was average offensively in 2021-22, ranking 15th in goals (11-1)
and 13th in expected goals. Maybe Montgomery can get more out of them, but it would be • MAKE PLAYOFFS (-160)
naive to think they won’t struggle a bit without three of their best players. The return of Bergeron
and David Krejci will soften the blow, but the Bruins will need big seasons from the likes of David • OVER 94.5 REGULAR
Pastrnak, Taylor Hall, Jake DeBrusk and newly acquired Pavel Zacha. SEASON POINTS (-125)
DEFENSE
The hallmark of the Bruins is defense, as they’ve been a top-five team in goals against for five
roster moves
seasons in a row, but injuries are going to test the team’s defensive depth this season. The Bruins In:
had the ninth-best penalty-kill percentage in 2021-22, but they probably don’t have any players
good enough to replace Marchand and McAvoy on special teams. Hampus Lindholm, who was David Krejci, Pavel Zacha
acquired at last season’s trade deadline, will have a chance to prove his worth. Boston’s ceiling
on defense will be a little lower to start, but the group should be able to tread water until they’re Out:
back at full strength.
Erik Haula, Curtis Lazar
GOALTENDING
Jeremy Swayman got a taste of the NHL in 2020-21 and posted a .945 save percentage in 10
games, but he fell back down to earth in 2021-22. Earth is where his partner, Linus Ullmark,
resides, and bettors shouldn’t expect the 29-year-old goaltender to stray too close to the sun.
He’s already reached his ceiling, which is fine for a backup, but the Bruins will probably need
Swayman to up his game unless they want to fight for a wild-card spot all season. The Bruins
ranked 11th in on-ice save percentage last season, but given that they ranked first in expected
goals against and fourth in shots against per 60 minutes, it looks like their goaltenders held the
team back.
OUTLOOK
The Bruins will likely feel more pressure from behind this season, as teams in the bottom half
of the Eastern Conference, specifically the Atlantic Division, have improved. That’s going to
make qualifying for the playoffs a little tougher this season, and the injuries to Marchand,
McAvoy and Grzelcyk don’t help. More than half of the Bruins’ first 25 games are against teams
projected to make the playoffs, but they’ll play most of those games at home, so they’re in a
good position to weather the storm. The Bruins will likely make the playoffs, but as things stand
now, they look like a wild-card team.
13BUFFALO
Sabres
ATLANTIC DIVISION
ANDY MACNEIL PROJECTIONS
+502 (16.6%) WIN DIVISION: N/A (0.0%) MAKE PLAYOFFS: +2678 (3.6%)
POINTS: 78.5 MISS PLAYOFFS: -2678 (96.4%)
WINS: 33.3 WIN STANLEY CUP: N/A (0.0%)
Buffalo is not only home to the league’s longest active playoff drought (11 seasons) but the
longest playoff drought of all time. The Sabres haven’t made the playoffs since 2010-11, and
they have virtually no chance of qualifying in 2022-23. There are plenty of reasons to be
optimistic about where they are heading, but they’re not as far along in their rebuild as teams
such as Detroit and Ottawa. Those teams are in a position to at least start to move up the ODDS TO WIN STANLEY CUP
standings this season, and possibly secure a playoff spot, while the Sabres are at least a few
years away from being in the conversation.
150-1
OFFENSE
Only the Coyotes generated fewer expected goals and scoring chances than the Sabres
last season, but, surprisingly, Buffalo finished 22nd on offense in all situations. The Sabres
overachieved offensively in 2021-22, so if you’re wondering where their ceiling is, it’s probably
BEST BET
somewhere around 2.75 goals per 60 minutes. Few teams have as many former first-round picks • BUFFALO MORE REGULAR
as the Sabres do, but with several under the age of 21, it’s going to be a while before all the SEASON POINTS (+120) THAN
work the organization has done off the ice materializes on the ice.
COLUMBUS
DEFENSE
The Sabres may have outperformed expected goals on offense, but that wasn’t the case on
defense. Buffalo ranked 19th in expected goals against but finished 25th in goals against,
allowing about 0.5 goals above expected per 60 minutes. The Sabres weren’t awful defensively,
ranking 11th in shots against and 12th in scoring chances against, but they had to use six
different goaltenders last season. roster moves
Rasmus Dahlin has come into his own as the Sabres’ No. 1 defenseman, but 2021 No. 1 In:
pick Owen Power looks like the future of the franchise. The 6-foot-6 19-year-old played eight Eric Comrie, Ilya Lyubushkin
games at the tail end of last season and there’s no doubt he’s ready to play against men.
Ilya Lyubushkin is a solid addition to the blue line, but the defense’s success will ultimately be Out:
determined by the goaltenders.
Colin Miller, Will Butcher,
GOALTENDING Mark Pysyk
Buffalo is bringing back 41-year old Craig Anderson after he went 17-12-2 last season. That
doesn’t seem like a good idea, but newly acquired Eric Comrie adds intrigue. The 29-year-old
finally broke into the NHL last season, posting a .921 save percentage and saving the Jets
around 10 goals above expected in 19 games. He only has 28 games of NHL experience, but
the 2013 No. 13 pick has pedigree. Comrie probably won’t realize his potential in Buffalo this
season, but unlike Anderson, his ceiling is unknown.
OUTLOOK
The Sabres are one of the youngest teams in the league and, by my count, they have only four
players who have more than 300 games of experience. The Sabres might be a BEST BET from
time to time, but they have virtually no chance of making the playoffs.
14DETROIT
Red Wings
ATLANTIC DIVISION
ANDY MACNEIL PROJECTIONS
+4066 (2.4%) WIN DIVISION: +99900 (0.1%) MAKE PLAYOFFS: +585 (14.6%)
POINTS: 84.7 MISS PLAYOFFS: -585 (85.4%)
WINS: 36.8 WIN STANLEY CUP: +49900 (0.2%)
Steve Yzerman has taken a patient approach to rebuilding the Red Wings, and for a short time,
it looked like the team was going to find itself back in the playoffs ahead of schedule. The Red
Wings had a respectable 13-9-3 start, but they only won 19 of their final 57 games and ended
the season sandwiched between the Sabres and Senators at the bottom of standings. There were
signs of growth, though, which led Yzerman to accelerate the rebuild by making a handful of ODDS TO WIN STANLEY CUP
signings this offseason. It’ll be a long time before the Red Wings are contenders, though, and
they’re probably still another year or two away from contending for a playoff spot.
60-1
OFFENSE
Dylan Larkin was the team’s best forward last season, hitting the 30-goal mark for the second
time in his career, but the 26-year-old might have more competition now that Jakub Vrana is
healthy. Vrana has scored 21 goals in 36 games with the Red Wings, and the team will be
BETTING TIP
much better off in 2022-23 with him in the lineup. Adding David Perron, Andrew Copp and • DETROIT WAS 19-36-27
Dominik Kubalik gives the Red Wings depth that they didn’t have before, but their ceiling will be IN THE FIRST PERIOD LAST
determined by players such as Larkin, Vrana, Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider.
SEASON
Only one team attempted fewer shots in 2021-22 than the Red Wings, which is one reason why
they finished in the bottom 10 on offense, but it wasn’t just a lack of quantity. Detroit finished
23rd in expected goals and 27th in scoring chances per 60 minutes. The team will almost
certainly score goals at a higher rate this season, but mediocrity is probably their ceiling.
DEFENSE roster moves
The Red Wings finished 30th in expected goals against per 60 minutes last season, and while the
offseason moves should result in them improving their team defense, bettors probably shouldn’t In:
expect them to make any huge strides in that regard. Ben Chiarot is one of the most overrated David Perron, Ben Chiarot,
defenseman in the league and is likely going to be in over his head playing on Detroit’s top pair Andrew Copp, Ville Husso,
next to Seider. Dominik Kubalik, Olli Maata,
GOALTENDING
Mark Pysyk
Detroit bet on Alex Nedeljkovic after he posted a .932 save percentage in 23 games with the
Hurricanes in 2020-21, but that number dropped to .901 in 59 games with the Red Wings in Out:
2021-22. Now, the Red Wings have doubled down by betting on Ville Husso, another unproven Thomas Greiss, Marc Staal
goaltender coming off a solid sophomore season. It’s possible Nedeljkovic and Husso form a
decent tandem, with one or the other acting as the starting goaltender, but the chances of that
happening are slim. The Red Wings limped into the offseason after allowing more goals than
any other team from Nov. 1 to the end of the season, and not enough has changed since then.
OUTLOOK
Making the playoffs is within the Red Wings’ range of outcomes this season, but it’s extremely
unlikely.
15FLORIDA
Panthers
ATLANTIC DIVISION
ANDY MACNEIL PROJECTIONS
+236 (29.7%) WIN DIVISION: +320 (23.8%) MAKE PLAYOFFS: -880 (89.8%)
POINTS: 103.8 MISS PLAYOFFS: +880 (10.2%)
WINS: 47.6 WIN STANLEY CUP: +1595 (5.9%)
Despite winning the Presidents’ Trophy and finishing the regular season as the best offensive
team in 26 years, the Panthers looked like pretenders in the playoffs. They were swept by the
Lightning in the second round, scoring just three goals in the process, and general manager Bill
Zito wasn’t happy. As a result, he traded star forward Jonathan Huberdeau and defenseman
MacKenzie Weegar to the Flames in exchange for a much younger star forward, Matthew ODDS TO WIN STANLEY CUP
Tkachuk. The Panthers still project to be one of the best teams in the league in 2022-23, but it’s
probably too much to ask that they be as good as they were last season.
OFFENSE
+850
Florida scored 4.06 goals per 60 minutes in 2021-22 (3.45 at even strength) and finished at
or near the top of just about every offensive category, but it’s going to be tough to replicate
last season’s output. Offense is their ticket, though, and new head coach Paul Maurice must be BETTING TIP
careful not to mess with what made the team so good last season. Florida led the league in shots
and expected goals (per 60 minutes) at even strength, and finished the season with the second- • FLORIDA WAS 36-10 AT
highest shot attempt differential since the NHL began tracking shot attempts in 2007-08. The HOME LAST SEASON
Panthers also had a top-five power play.
It won’t be as easy this season. Weegar and Mason Marchment, who the Panthers could
not afford to keep, were among the top producers on the team, and Huberdeau is the
organization’s all-time leading scorer. Losing Huberdeau’s ability to elevate his linemates could
have ramifications for players such as Sam Bennett and Anthony Duclair, who had the best
seasons of their careers. The Panthers should be just fine offensively, but their forward group
doesn’t look as formidable heading into this season.
roster moves
DEFENSE In:
The Panthers could be better defensively, but Weegar was arguably the team’s best defender
and finding a player to play those tough minutes isn’t going to be easy. Aaron Ekblad is one of Matthew Tkachuk
the best defenseman in the game, but the 26-year-old isn’t impervious to injury. Florida finished
17th in expected goals against last season, proving there’s a cost to playing the game too Out:
loosely. This is an average defense that must be relentless and stay on the attack. Luckily for the
Panthers, that’s what they seem to be good at. Jonathan Huberdeau,
MacKenzie Weegar,
GOALTENDING Mason Marchment
Sergei Bobrovsky was good for the first time since 2017-18, but the shine wore off as the
season went on and he didn’t finish strong. It’s unlikely Bobrovsky will return to being an elite
goaltender, but he did save the Panthers roughly 12 goals above expected last season. The
season went the opposite way for 2019 No. 13 pick Spencer Knight. He struggled out of the
gate and was sent to the American Hockey League, but he made up for it in the second half
of the season. Maybe 2022-23 will be the year Knight breaks out, but he’s just 21 and there
are clearly still holes in his game. The Panthers’ goaltending isn’t in bad shape, but it isn’t
necessarily stable, and that’s a concern.
OUTLOOK
The Panthers outscored teams by more than a full goal per 60 minutes last season, so things
would have to go really wrong (think 2021-22 Golden Knights) for them to miss the playoffs.
Still, it’s unclear what kind of staying power they have. They aren’t the Lightning, but maybe
they can be the Avalanche.
16MONTREAL
Canadiens
ATLANTIC DIVISION
ANDY MACNEIL PROJECTIONS
+440 (18.5%) WIN DIVISION: N/A (0.0%) MAKE PLAYOFFS: N/A (0.7%)
POINTS: 72.8 MISS PLAYOFFS: -14186 (99.3%)
WINS: 30.1 WIN STANLEY CUP: N/A (0.0%)
Many bettors predicted that 2021-22 would be a down year for the Canadiens after their
Cinderella run to the Stanley Cup Final in 2020-21, but nobody expected things to go as bad
as they did. The Canadiens won 22 out of 82 games and finished last in the league with 55
points. Winning the NHL draft lottery and selecting Juraj Slafkovsky with the first pick made it
all worth it, though. The fun didn’t stop there, either, as general manager Kent Hughes traded a ODDS TO WIN STANLEY CUP
couple of picks to the Blackhawks for 2019 No. 3 pick Kirby Dach, who joins a young core that
includes 2019 No. 15 pick Cole Caufield and 2017 No. 13 pick Nick Suzuki. The future is bright
in Montreal, and the team should perform better than they did last season, but it will be a long
time before the Canadiens are contenders again.
200-1
OFFENSE
Offense is going to be this team’s best chance at having any success in 2022-23, and if what we BETTING TIP
saw out of the group after Martin St. Louis was named coach is any indication of how they will
play going forward, there’s a lot to be excited about. St. Louis was hired in February, and by • MONTREAL WAS 11-30 AT
the end of the season, the Canadiens had gone from scoring 2.18 goals per 60 minutes (31st) HOME AND ON THE ROAD
to scoring 3.17 goals per 60 (15th). Only 10 teams scored more goals per game than Montreal
from Feb. 9th to the end of the season. LAST SEASON
The forward group is quite good given where the franchise is at, but the top players have not
yet entered their prime years. Caufield started the 2021-22 season on the top line under coach
Dominique Ducharme but ended up in the minors a month later. Caufield produced just one goal
and seven assists prior to Ducharme’s firing but exploded under St. Louis. In his final 37 games,
Caufield scored 22 goals and 35 points. Slafkovsky was named MVP of the Winter Olympics
after scoring seven goals in seven games and projects to be a top-six forward. The 6-foot-4
roster moves
Slovak has a good chance of becoming a star for the Canadiens, but he only put up 10 points in In:
31 games with TPS Turku of the Finnish Elite League, so he probably won’t make a big impact in
the short term. Kirby Dach, Mike Matheson,
Evgenii Dadonov
DEFENSE
Montreal was the worst defensive team in the league in 2021-22, finishing 32nd in goals
against, 32nd in expected goals against and 29th in shots against per 60 minutes. The team’s Out:
defensive play at even strength improved slightly under St. Louis but not enough overall. The Alex Romanov, Jeff Petry
team traded Jeff Petry for Mike Matheson and also dealt 22-year-old Alexander Romanov
for a pick. Youngsters Justin Barron, 20, and Jordan Harris, 22 (combined 17 games of NHL
experience) are projected to play top-six minutes.
GOALTENDING
Jake Allen and Samuel Montembeault will share the net again in 2022-23, as Carey Price will
miss the entire season. Allen played fine under the circumstances, but Montembeault had his
worst season, allowing approximately 15 goals above expected, and will continue to be a drag
on the team.
OUTLOOK
The new general manager will likely continue to try to put his stamp on the organization by
making roster moves, and it’s unclear what this team will look like in a few months. Regardless,
the Canadiens project to be the worst team in the Eastern Conference for the second season in a
row.
17OTTAWA
Senators
ATLANTIC DIVISION
ANDY MACNEIL PROJECTIONS
+646 (13.4%) WIN DIVISION: +14185 (0.7%) MAKE PLAYOFFS: +346 (22.4%)
POINTS: 87.4 MISS PLAYOFFS: -346 (77.6%)
WINS: 38.3 WIN STANLEY CUP: +19900 (0.5%)
Senators general manager Pierre Dorion made some waves this offseason, acquiring veteran
Claude Giroux, 40-goal scorer Alex DeBrincat and goaltender Cam Talbot. The Senators look
like they’re finally ready to move out of the league’s basement, but they’re still a long shot
to make the playoffs. They have finished among the bottom-10 teams in the standings for five
straight seasons. ODDS TO WIN STANLEY CUP
OFFENSE
The offense finished 26th in goals per 60 minutes in 2021-22, but that number should improve 55-1
significantly with the additions of DeBrincat and Giroux. Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris, Drake
Batherson and Tim Stutzle are all on their way to becoming stars, which means Ottawa could
turn out to be an above-average offensive team. Injuries to key players (Batherson, Norris and
Thomas Chabot) were a driving force behind the Senators finishing as one of the worst offensive
BETTING TIP
teams in the league, so even before the additions, there was already a good chance they • OTTAWA WAS 14-23-4 TO
would score more than 2.71 goals per 60 minutes in 2022-23. Now, it seems like a foregone THE OVER ON THE ROAD LAST
conclusion. Ottawa ranked 17th in expected goals per 60 minutes last season but only one team
converted on fewer scoring chances than the Senators did. That should change now that they’ve
SEASON
added some serious shooting talent to the lineup.
DEFENSE
Chabot is the team’s best defenseman and Artem Zub is a solid player, but as a group, the
Senators have one of the worst blue lines in the league. There’s been a lot of talk about 2020
No. 5 pick Jake Sanderson, but that’s all it is for now. The 20-year-old defenseman hasn’t made roster moves
the team yet, and even if he does, he’ll still have to solidify his spot in the lineup by playing well.
If there’s one thing that holds the Senators back from jumping up the standings in 2022-23, it In:
will be Dorion’s decision to run back the defense after finishing 26th in expected goals against Alex DeBrincat, Claude Giroux,
and 28th in shots against in 2021-22. Cam Talbot, Tyler Motte
GOALTENDING
Talbot’s save percentage was among the best in the league during his time in Minnesota,
Out:
however, he saw far fewer scoring chances than your average goaltender due to the Wild being Matt Murray, Connor Brown
one of the best teams in expected goals against. He isn’t going to get anywhere close to that
kind of defensive support in Ottawa, and his minus-23 goals saved above expected suggests
that his save percentage was a product of the team around him. Ottawa finished 23rd in goals
against last season, and I’m skeptical that a 35-year-old goaltender is the answer.
OUTLOOK
The Senators finished with 73 points in 2021-22 and bettors should expect an improvement in
2022-23. However, their chances of missing the playoffs are approximately four times greater
than their chances of qualifying for them.
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