2021 HR DIRECTORS' BRIEFING - BRIEFING PAPER - Corporate Research Forum
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o8
BRIEFING
PAPER
#
HR DIRECTORS’ BRIEFING
The world
of work
2021
2
FOREWORD
Environmental Scanning individuals who are exceptionally insightful,
challenging and professional. They might be
3 2021 Geopolitical Trends
Professor Amelia Hadfield | Head of Department of Politics | University of Surrey
in business schools, have a political or senior
military background or have ‘made it’ in
4 Economic Update
Roger Bootle | Chairman | Capital Economics
Peter Blausten | Former Group HR Director | BAA Plc
The Covid-19 pandemic has
some challenging field. They are hard to find.
• Shift the organisational mindset on Matt Stripe
forced HRDs to accelerate learning. Learning is inextricably linked with | Group HR
strategy execution, ongoing improvement,
Technology / Digital Update change within the function. We innovation and operational excellence. In
Director | PZ
Cussons
5 Technology Trends for 2021
David Rowan | Founding Editor | WIRED UK
Nigel Sullivan | Chief People Officer | Bupa
will have to move faster to help
improve our organisations’
today’s world, barriers have disappeared and
we should be seeing learning opportunities
in everything we do. Learning needs to
performance and productivity be relevant, have clear objectives and
Reward and Employment Policy be evaluated. It’s time to re-embrace the
6 Remuneration and Corporate Governance
Peter Boreham | UK and European Practice Leader, Executive Reward | Mercer
Richard Windmill | Group Reward Director | Nokia
whilst at the same time
responding to the societal
learning organisation.
• We need a written, approved, costed,
changes taking place. and communicated plan prioritising and
8 Employee Benefits
Neil Hurst | UK Practice Leader, Reward and Talent | Mercer
Richard Windmill | Group Reward Director | Nokia
• Devote your energy to sales, costs, and
margins and focus on customers, innovation
explaining our endeavours. It should
be short, numbers-rich and business
connected. Approach it as our part of the
and speed. These imperatives should form
9
business plan, not a separate HR plan.
Employment Law and Policy the foundation of all HR activities. If it
Ian Hunter | Partner, London & Co-Head of International HR Services | Bird & Bird doesn’t move the dial, don’t do it. HR has a critical role in developing a culture
Pattie Walsh | Partner, Hong Kong, International HR Services | Bird & Bird and organisational context that allows the
Richard Windmill | Group Reward Director | Nokia • Society is changing, with evolving demands business to flourish and people to thrive.
for fairness, openness, and inclusivity. The HR Director has to deliver the essentials,
Future of Work Employees, and increasingly customers, prepare for the future, embrace diversity,
10 The World of Work in the 2020s
Steven Toft | Director | Firebrand Consultancy
Michael Schulz | Chief People and Culture Officer | Puma Energy
expect the enterprise to act in line with
a clear and honourable purpose. This
needs to be reflected in the workforce, not
mentor colleagues, bring the outside in, and
be the conscience of the enterprise. It is
difficult to do well, but it is pivotal work.
through tokenism or the views of the vocal
12 Future of Talent
Dr. Jessica Bigazzi-Foster | Head of Executive Bench | RHR International
minority, but a genuine need to harness
everyone’s efforts for the greater good.
13 Role of Organisation in Society
Jennifer Duvalier | Non Executive Director & Chair of Remuneration Committee | Mitie Plc
• Bring together the very best in coaching
with senior management to enhance
14 The Future of Corporate Learning performance and approach to people. The
Professor David Bach | Strategy and Political Economy & Dean of Innovation and Programs | coaching should be delivered by those rare
IMD Business School
3
HRD BRIEFING
Environmental scanning
2o21
September. Leaders of each of these states are
likely to initiate specific strategies associated
2021 will be an with regional and national interests, including
uneven year climate change from a post-Brexit UK, and EU divisions
Geopolitical
global democracy from a post-Trump US.
Key trends include regional economic France and Ireland may reinforce various The majority of EU leaders support the
Professor Amelia downturns in most key markets apart from approaches to European-based leadership. concept of ‘green Covid recovery’ enabling
Hadfield | Head China as the full impact of Covid-19’s costs zero carbon sustainability to underwrite
Trends
of Department hit, and a heightened use of key global post-pandemic economic revival. However,
of Politics | summits to re-establish US influence, possibly regional recovery and unity has been
University of
leading to increased trade and global health undermined by the stand-off between Poland,
Surrey
policy tensions. Much resetting will take US Hungary and the rest of the EU over proposals
place, including the inauguration of President to link EU funds to the explicit observance by
Biden and the transition to a post-Brexit UK. Biden is likely to visibly resuscitate the World member states of the rule of law, deadlocking
Grand strategies include the EU’s ‘green Covid Health Organization (WHO) and end the the rest of the now-overdue EU budget.
recovery’, increased attempts by Brazil to impasse at the World Trade Organization (WTO) While European Commission President Ursula
reassert regional dominance, and likely spikes over the appellate body composition. Biden von der Leyen may lead a breakthrough,
in aggression by China over Hong Kong and is liable to re-join key global treaties including the departure of German Chancellor Angela
the South China sea, plus border forays the Paris Climate Accords and work to improve Merkel in 2021, and ambitions of France’s
initiated by Russia possibly extending relations with NATO, possibly extending this President for enhanced European strategic
to the Baltics. The advent of ‘Covid to micro-diplomacy with the EU3 over Iran. autonomy may deepen regional unease.
Diplomacy’ will see key states, such He may also use key visits to Ireland, the UK,
as middle-powers like Canada and France and Germany, as well as Brussels, to
Sweden, regions like the EU, and re-establish trans-Atlantic relationships focusing
organisations like the OECD, support on trade, climate change, democracy and
the mass purchase of vaccinations for fighting corruption. China
developing countries.
Ongoing attempts to reclaim aspects of
control over Hong Kong, attempts to reset
International the balance of trade with the US, and pushing
summits and UK-EU Relation ahead with the Belt and Road Initiative are
likely to be China’s goals for 2021. China’s
organisations The disruption of a no-deal Brexit amid the economic output is likely to hit pre-pandemic
Expect attempts by the US and the ongoing Covid pandemic has been avoided levels by Q4 or even Q3 2021, with a growth
UK to reassert their post-Trump and by the agreement of a Brexit trade deal on rate of between 6-8%.
post-Brexit identities respectively. The Christmas Eve. Although there will be no tariffs
composition of the UN Security Council is or limits on the amount that can be traded
especially interesting, with the UK (one of five between the UK and EU, businesses will need
permanent members) holding the February to prepare for new procedures at ports. New
Presidency, followed by the US in March, restrictions around professional services and
China in May, France in July, and Ireland in working rights will also need to be considered.
4
HRD BRIEFING
Environmental scanning
Practitioner view
Economic Peter Blausten
Update
Former Group HR Director
BAA Plc
Roger Bootle The challenge for businesses is to put themselves in the best
| Chairman competitive position to take advantage of the economic and
| Capital geopolitical trends flagged by Roger and Amelia. Don’t be blinded by the
Economics present. In a crisis it is natural to focus more on tactics than strategy, but
The second wave of Covid-19 has intensified vaccine availability is a further sign this must shift. HR must help lead.
the economic downturn and delayed the
return of output to its pre-virus level. In the UK • Cost structure, cash flow and R&D investment – HR must
this could now occur by the end of 2021 or understand the economics of revised business strategies. Whilst
shareholders are being told that it is too early to confirm reliable
the beginning of 2022. This economic setback
long-term incentive performance targets, it is by no means a blank
should not be entirely surprising. We have now
canvas for what the financial priorities must look like to be able
entered the northern hemisphere’s autumn/ to emerge in a position of strength. HR must be proactive in the
winter period and there was always the risk debate on organisation cost, structure and productivity strategy,
of a second wave, as experienced with the mopped up the extra debt. What’s more, even
if deficits rise substantially from here, it looks and plan for the implications.
Spanish flu outbreak in 1918-20. Markets and
many businesses probably became irrationally between northern and southern members of as though this will continue to be the case. • Digitalisation and speed to market of new products have been
This approach has even been endorsed by the two paradigm shifts that employees in every business must
optimistic over the summer months. the Eurozone will intensify the dangers of an
former guardian of fiscal rectitude: the IMF. appreciate. But do managers understand the implications and are
eventual split in this grouping.
But this is not to say that everything is all gloom they ready and able to enable these changes more rapidly? HR
and doom. Businesses have become much China and much of East Asia have already But the danger of inflation in a few years’ must make sure credible plans to address this are quickly put into
more adept at coping than when the virus and begun an economic recovery from the virus- time has increased. There is massive pent- place. These are two key factors to enable growth and competitive
lockdown first struck. This may well explain induced recession. Japan was little affected up demand and there has been huge money advantage, so HR must be well-positioned.
why global stock markets, although weaker in and is also now recovering. creation by the central banks. It is even possible • Supply chain is sexy. Brexit, Covid-19 and trade wars have meant
reaction to news about the intensifying virus, that governments will come to welcome a bit more focus is rightly placed on this. Whether you are in HR in
have not fallen further. Widespread criticism of the lockdown strategy of inflation as a way of liquidating the debt. a global or domestic business, on-shoring will be reviewed,
has emerged from reputable scientific and government will want to stimulate more local manufacturing and
Of course, the availability of vaccines is economic sources. If the virus persists or returns We now have more clarity about the structural supply, and have assurance for business-critical supply chains.
potentially a game changer. But we must in modified form, there is a good chance that changes unleashed by this experience. It There may be significant OD implications for your business.
beware of becoming too optimistic about this criticism will intensify and force a change of has become increasingly clear that working
from home has its problems and drawbacks. • Business has a vested interest in an equitable society. Covid-19
that too. Regulatory approval, distribution, tack by many governments, including the British has further revealed social inequalities. HR needs action plans
the degree of voluntary acceptance and the one. Instead, we could see the isolation and The Death of the Office has been greatly
for more meaningful progress on these – costed and resourced.
possibility of nasty side effects are all potentially protection of vulnerable people and reliance on exaggerated. There is a building consensus that
It is also no longer good enough to deal with diversity as mainly
substantial downsides. a degree of self-policing, but a reversal of the the future will be one in which businesses retain
progress on gender, or to deal with disability with minimal
lockdown allowing the economy to function a central office facility but not all workers will expenditure for support and access to jobs.
Within the European economy, Germany has pretty normally. be required to go to that office every day of the
done relatively well – at least until recently – week. This will pose significant challenges but • M&A. The crisis has revealed strategic weaknesses and
while Italy has done appallingly badly. Indeed, While government deficits have ballooned it will also bring big opportunities in the realms opportunities. Activist investors will not sit tight for long. Private
although few people are currently focussing they haven’t caused problems in the markets of commercial and residential property, town equity funds need investing. Informed HR Directors can challenge
and ask the difficult questions to defend their businesses, or to
on this issue, the economic divergence or a rise in interest rates as central banks have planning and transport infrastructure.
support debate on acquisitions. They must also be ready and
equipped to execute the deals that are sure to be done.
5
HRD BRIEFING
Technology / digital update
Technology issues for 2o21 Practitioner view
The passion
economy
Remember the gig economy? Nigel Sullivan
Chief People Officer
Now get used to the passion economy. A swathe
Bupa
of new online skills marketplaces are enabling
David Rowan individuals to earn a living by trading on their personal David spoke at Bupa’s global HR forum in 2019 and he was great.
| Founding
Editor of WIRED
The decentralised Algorithmic reputation. It’s like eBay or Etsy, but for monetising Unlike quite a few in this field he has hands on experience of
workplace skills and passions (hence the trend’s disruptive technological innovation and knows personally many of
UK | author of workplace bias name) in new ways. Teachers are selling coursework the start-ups he writes about – so I always take what he writes with
Non-Bullshit
There’s no going back: flexible working is here to There’s a growing concern that our increasingly on platforms such as Kajabi, Teachable and Podia; some weight and a lot of credibility. However, that’s not to say that
Innovation
stay. Repeated lockdowns proved that work can AI-driven lives are subject to the biased journalists are making six-figure incomes by writing I necessarily always agree with him!
get done pretty effectively at home. To keep talent assumptions of those who wrote the code. Do subscription newsletters on Substack; there’s
even a platform called Dumpling where I think it’s a bit too early to call the decentralised workplace yet.
motivated, leaders will need to ensure that their your face-recognition entry systems find it harder
individuals set themselves up as personal There has clearly been a shift, particularly for office based folks,
IT systems are optimised for remote working, and to recognise non-white staff? Is your recruitment
grocery shoppers. As the trend spreads but how profound and permanent it will be is yet to be seen.
embrace virtual communication tools that make database disproportionately penalising older
into more sectors, it’s going to I prefer to think of this as more of a ‘hybrid-hybrid’ situation
staff feel part of the core company. Leaders should women? Expect greater public scrutiny –
put pressure on employers to with workplaces being areas to bring your work to, as much as
also use software tools to bring their distributed from your staff, but also from politicians – of
recognise the economic value where you do your work from. In this scenario it’s more about
teams together in offices for just part of the week. automated decision-making in all its forms.
a star performer brings to a collaboration, innovation, socialisation, team-work, and a hybrid
I recently made a personal investment in Finnish
company – or else they may go work setting with the right space to accommodate this. Then
startup Spacent, which provides a digital simulation
it alone. As if leaders needed there’s the hybrid style of working which sees employees spend
of available desk space in a city, enabling
companies to book those desks for hours or days Carbon one more thing to worry about maybe two to three days per week at home or in a workplace
instead of being in the office 9am-5pm Monday to Friday. We
after a tumultuous year…
at a time. It’s what comes after co-working. accountability should also spare a thought for those workers where much of this
is just not possible at all given the nature of their work.
In 2021 you will come under greater pressure
from your staff to contribute towards carbon Innovation acceleration is exactly what we have experienced at
Innovation neutrality, as employees expect you to walk Bupa, and it has been incredible. It’s what we were planning to
acceleration the walk on sustainability. You can’t change
what you can’t measure so a first step will be to
do but the speed, the scale and the ‘one-way’ nature of it has
been staggering. For example, in Spain we went from 300 online
The pandemic forced the lingering analogue audit your organisation’s contribution to CO2 physician consultations a day to over 5,000 a day in a matter of
industries – from department stores to doctors’ emissions, and you will be expected to be open weeks. This will only continue in scale and sophistication of what
surgeries – to digitise rapidly in a bid to survive. and accountable. Luckily there’s a new breed we can offer our customers.
That impetus to digitise will only increase, and of climate-tech startup, such as Plan A in Berlin,
that will help you comprehensively measure and I think David is also absolutely spot on to call out carbon
leadership teams will need to embed technology-
reduce your company’s emissions. accountability. There are clear links between climate change,
led innovation at the core of their strategies. If
biodiversity and therefore health of our species and all others. It
customers can touch a phone screen or ask Siri
can no longer be ignored or green-washed. Companies with social
for something you offer, you’d better make sure
purpose and sustainability at the heart of their strategies will be the
your processes are in place to deliver it as if by
winners in the long-term as the best talent will demand this is and
magic. This means investing in your in-house
vote with their feet as will customers with their wallets.
tech teams and building an ecosystem with
independent tech startups that can help you.
6
HRD BRIEFING
Reward and employment policy
Remuneration and
Performance focus. The pandemic has
raised short- and long-term challenges and
opportunities for businesses. This may imply
a nimbler approach to selecting incentive
Corporate Governance
targets: either tactical (conserving cash
or maintaining market share), strategic
Peter Boreham (repositioning the business to take advantage
| UK and of new opportunities or the weakness of
European competitors) or pragmatic (more use of
Practice Leader,
relative measures or time-vested shares to
Executive
Reward | Mercer
The immediate agenda to be down relative to last year; we also
mitigate unpredictability). Encouragingly, most
expect to see much greater variation between
investors are taking a reasonably flexible line
The Covid-19 crisis has created many companies. And many businesses face
on how future incentives are operated (in
significant challenges for businesses. dilemmas about how to deal with internal
contrast to a harder line on in-flight plans).
Admirably, most are pivoting rapidly to flexible relativities fairly where the impact of the virus
working arrangements, improving their digital has varied between divisions or regions.
engagement with customers and adapting the
It’s a tough time to be a CEO. Investors The 12-18 month agenda
mix of products or services offered.
will be scrutinising CEO reward particularly Getting motivation and engagement back on
Similarly, HR/Reward professionals and closely. The general principle articulated by the agenda. Many Remuneration Committees
Remuneration Committees are having to be shareholders and supported by most Boards are understandably keen to avoid significant
nimble in rewarding both top executives and and management teams is that the CEO and ‘against’ say-on-pay votes. However, there is
the wider workforce in ways that are internally other disclosed executives should be treated a danger that the governance becomes the
and externally defensible. Some of the key no better than other staff. The consensus only lens through which top pay is considered
factors they will need to consider over the is that rewards should take into account at the expense of ensuring it is retentive,
next three to nine months are as follows. furloughing, redundancies and government motivating and aligned to business priorities.
support as well as more predictable As and when we emerge from the current
There is no playbook. Most incentive and
considerations like the shareholder experience. recession, some Committees may turn their
reward structures are not designed to handle
In this context, investors are more likely to attention to this issue.
the level of performance volatility and
accept, for example, a bonus or salary increase
stakeholder impact triggered by the Covid-19 A wider view of performance. We are already
for the CEO where this is part of an initiative
crisis. Companies will need to take flexible starting to see a significant uptick in the use
that applies to most or all staff. By contrast,
approaches, potentially taking into account a of Environmental, Social and Governance
investors have made it very clear that 2018-
wider set of factors and more use of discretion. (ESG) measures in executive incentives.
20 long-term incentive targets for Executive
It’s a multi-speed world. The pandemic Directors should NOT be adjusted. However, This is now a requirement in France and
has impacted sectors and companies very several clients are taking more flexible Germany and many of our UK clients are
differently. We expect to see the general level approaches for executives below the Board. planning to implement such measures in the
of incentive payments and salary increases coming two years. The approach varies by
sector with traditionally ‘dirty’ industries and
7
HRD BRIEFING
Reward and employment policy
manufacturers focusing on environmental
and safety factors, consumer companies
be/is being done elsewhere? With some
high-profile exceptions (e.g. Facebook)
are likely to enjoy net savings from home
working? Practitioner view
looking at the customer experience and how this is likely to be looking forward rather
environmental responsibility can be part of than taking anything away from current • For most companies office costs will be
Richard Windmill
the customer value proposition, and almost employees. However we do expect to see a top three expense, and therefore lots Group Reward Director
all companies looking to reduce carbon more variation in pay levels and increases, of organisations are reviewing the size Nokia
emissions. Most companies are taking a low- with pay bid up for scarce digital skills and and locations of offices to see if they can
Peter’s comments really resonate with what we are experiencing
risk approach with a weighting of up to 20% stagnating in some areas where there is be downsized, closed or relocated. Can
at Nokia. At senior levels the definition of performance and
and are more likely to introduce ESG into the labour over-supply. current buildings be adapted or enhanced
alignment with shareholders’ experience is highly relevant. There
annual incentive rather than locking in three to facilitate more collaborative spaces that
seems to be a real sense from the investor community of taking
year targets in the LTIP. • With homeworking extending longer than are adaptable to the changing numbers of
a more holistic view of performance, including an ESG metric,
many organisations initially expected, we heads on a day-to-day basis?
but in a positive way. At Nokia we view this as a way to make sure
Rewarding home workers. Most sectors are anticipate a growing emphasis on equipment
we remain relevant to our customers, particularly with metrics
expecting to see continued significant use (technology and furniture) and physical
like carbon footprint, and supporting our customers to be more
of homeworking with 30% of Mercer survey wellbeing. As an employer, what do I need to
efficient and sustainable in the future. On a wider workforce
respondents saying at least 50% of their provide for employees working from home
basis, the whole concept of going into the office and managing
workforce will be based mostly at (either significantly, partially, or full time)?
real estate costs is of course relevant. We see this bringing a
home. What does this mean for the How much should I contribute towards this
multi-dimensional challenge – ensuring employee welfare and
consistency and structure of reward? versus what should the employee pay given
engagement while having the opportunity to employ people
that both employers and (most) employees
• We are seeing some organisations more flexibly. This is alongside the challenge of managing a wider
look at simplifying their approach variety of locations and the turbulence in local labour markets as
to salaries and removing any geographic separation becomes less of an issue. Understanding
regional weightings they may have how far Silicon Valley budgets will reshape labour rates in far-
historically provided. Why pay flung markets remains to be seen, but now that the big tech
London rates for a job that can companies have clearly learned to adapt, the need ‘to be in the
valley’ is not as singular as it once was. We are expecting it to
become easier for the global players to hire where the real talent
is (not just in Silicon Valley). Taking that financial firepower with a
new, more geographically flexible operating model could well see
some disruption in less obvious labour markets and locations. We
are also seeing a faster-changing world and the need to pay for
current and emerging skills changing more quickly. The need to
move from role-based pay to skill-based pay, and benchmarking,
is starting to build and the availability of AI offers opportunities to
build market intelligence in different ways.
8
HRD BRIEFING
Reward and employment policy
Employee Link to Values
and ESG Goals
Personalisation/
Individualisation Richard Windmill
Benefits
Group Reward Director
• Purpose and sustainability are to feature • Increased flexibility and personalisation for Nokia
Neil Hurst | UK more prominently as part of a broader multiple generations and value systems.
While the Covid-19 pandemic has brought
Practice Leader, Employee Value Proposition. Whilst this is nothing new, we might
disruption and tragedy to many over
PRIORITIES
Reward and possibly see better eldercare cover.
Talent | Mercer • DE&I and LGBT+ the last year, it has also offered us the
considerations should be • Greater emphasis on leave plans, opportunity to look at things we would not
seen as drivers of change. possibilities include unlimited paid time off, have dared tackle in the past. Ideas that sat
This includes new options sabbaticals or career breaks. in the ‘too difficult’ box don’t seem so challenging
under PMI plans and after all. The reminder of a need to look out for one another
support for parents (not • Study support for employees, to support the has indeed refreshed the sense of purpose, and for us at Nokia
just around the birth or future skills and reskilling agenda. the theoretical concept of 5G became critical in providing the
Cost and adoption of their child, backbone of remote working.
Sustainability but thereafter, particularly
The focus on a common threat has also brought a sharpened
regarding remote working
• A continued focus on the cost vs perception focus on responsibility and the role we and other companies
and the extra conflicts at
value of benefits packages, including play in society. We’ve all recognised that health is paramount
home).
ongoing cost containment measures. and priceless, but the level of disruption and change impacting
• Wellbeing will become our societies and our workforce brings with it a real need to
• Evaluation of the relevance of certain increasingly intrinsic to recalibrate how to support our colleagues and their families in
benefits (e.g. cars, travel allowances) in the benefits plan design. Paying adapting to the new environment. It’s not entirely altruistic –
new world of work. it lip service is no longer an there is a need to ensure that we meet our customers’ needs
option, particularly in light of and remain productive, but it is done with a genuine sense of
• Awareness of the consistency
Covid-19. higher purpose and a drive for wellbeing.
of the overall cost base linked
to profitability. • A rethinking of benefits for On a more operational level it also brings a reshaping of the
a remote working population. traditional benefits package. For example, travel loans and car
Organisations shifting the investment benefits (which have largely sat in the drive for nine months)
in office facilities to support for those look set to get a shake-up that will potentially continue for two
working at home e.g. virtual GPs and to three years as charges and the need for transport and public
rethinking office benefits as places for transport will undoubtedly change.
collaboration.
9
HRD BRIEFING
Reward and employment policy
Employment
Diversity and
More employee Inclusion will
class actions remain at the top
Law and Policy We are starting to see more employee claims
backed by well organised and focussed
group litigation funds. They are moving onto
the ground traditionally occupied by Trade
Unions and their favoured law firms. Typical
of the agenda
Developing global policies which comply with
differing, and in some cases conflicting, legal
and cultural norms across the globe will be a
Five things HR Directors should group claims include Holiday Pay, Equal challenge – but one which must be addressed
Pay and Data Privacy claims. The potential in the battle to attract and retain the best
Ian Hunter | know about Employment Law claims could run into hundreds of millions. It talent. The challenges of collecting and
Partner, London
& Co-Head of and Policy: is important to think now about the degree managing data in this area will be only one
of compliance and non-compliance and the aspect of the ever-increasing issue of HR data
International HR
and its strategic importance to the business.
Services | Bird & Employment laws strategy to adopt. Such claims may become
Bird a significant factor when conducting due
are likely to change diligence on major acquisitions. Protection of
Pattie Walsh
| Partner, to reflect new intellectual
Hong Kong,
working realities Employee property
International HR
Services | Bird & They will also adapt to meet the shift in
activism is
Trade secrets and the protection of the
Bird
expectations of employers from society and staff growing business and its intellectual capital will be
that the workplace reflects the rapid societal even more important in challenging and
changes. The trend towards atypical working has Employees increasingly have the ability
to organise and communicate virtually. changing times. The combination of the
accelerated and employment laws have not kept rapid switch to home working for so many
pace – even before Covid-19 the Taylor report Employers will need to think about the best
strategy to deal with such activity. This will employees, working across locations and
in the UK indicated that a rethink was necessary often using personal workarounds well
with regard to the legal protection for those in involve a complex balance between providing
space for open debate and employee outside of IT policy, and the heightened
work. This rethink is likely to be more extensive need to protect the business and its market
as a result of the pandemic. Home working engagement demanded by the top talent and
protecting the business and its reputation. position will bring this into greater focus.
and rapid digitalisation in some sectors is likely Much more attention will be directed at
to lead to new health and safety rules (with Policies and practices from social media to
codes of conduct and response plans when ensuring that intellectual property rights in the
particular regard to protecting mental health), form of patents, trademarks and copyright,
right to work from home regulations and more things go wrong will be key priorities.
are fully protected with increased needs to
protection for casual workers against dismissal train, audit and enforce critical rights.
as the threat of redundancy increases.
10
HRD BRIEFING
Future of work
The World of
Job polarisation by country
Change in share of total employment by skill level, 1995-2015
15
Steven Toft
Work in the 2020s 10
Percentage Points
| Director | 5
Firebrand
Consultancy 0
In 2020 we experienced An ageing population
-5
unexpected disruption which The median age of the global population is
has affected the entire world rising. In most countries, the working age
-10
population will shrink as a proportion of the
economy. However, the population over the next decade. In some
-15
forces that were affecting economies it will shrink in absolute terms. Canada France Germany Japan OECD United United
Kingdom States
employment before the • Working age (15-64) share of the global High skill Middle skill Low skill
population peaked in 2014 and is now on a
pandemic haven’t gone away. downward trajectory (World Bank)
Source: OECD Employment Outlook 2017; European Union Labour Force Survey; Labour
force surveys for Canada, Japan and the United States; and OECD calculations
These underlying trends, • Proportion of the workforce aged 50-64
combined with the scarring rose from 20% to 28% between 2000 and
2015 (Mercer) A more professional workforce
effects of the pandemic, will
• Ageing process is most advanced in North • Across the high-income economies, the
shape the global labour market America, Europe and Japan but is taking proportion of the workforce in professional,
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over the next five years. We place at speed in some Asian and Latin managerial and technical roles rose from 30%
American economies e.g. Brazil, South to 40% over the last three decades
believe the following factors Korea, Thailand
will have the most significant • Over the same period, the number of workers
• Global nature of this phenomenon means in clerical and skilled manual roles declined
impact on employment. immigration will only be a short-term fix
Agile Talent: • This ‘job polarisation’ process looks set to
How to Source “We are not just looking at a war for talent, our continue, as the mid-tier jobs are populated
and Manage research indicates that there will be a labour by an older age cohort and are likely to be
Outside Experts, shortage – quite simply a shortage of people significantly affected by automation
WEBINAR
available to do the work.” MERCER
7 Ways HR Can • The impact of Covid-19 may speed up this
Build a Fairer, process, as more companies need technical
Data-Informed skills to help them shift to new ways of working
Culture,
ARTICLE11
HRD BRIEFING
Future of work
Employment • Evidence of effective re-skilling is scant
– workers are slow to change industry
Average Real UK GDP Per Capita Growth Practitioner view
rates likely to or occupation and training makes little
3.0%
gradually, but difference to their propensity to do so 2.5% Michael Schulz
Chief People Officer
(Resolution Foundation)
not completely, 2.0% Puma Energy
• Displaced workers without degrees are
recover more likely to move into lower skill jobs
1.5% In the context of Puma Energy, a mainly emerging market
than to re-skill (OECD) 1.0% company the ‘current’ workforce trends are supplemented
• Most advanced with an ‘evolving’ trend namely a transient, remote and gig
economies saw record or • Many economies may therefore find 0.5% economy and workforce for ‘remote or hybrid’ roles
near-record employment themselves with a simultaneous rise in 0.0%
rates in the late 2010s, unemployment and skills shortages at the 1800- 1825- 1850- 1875- 1900- 1925- 1950- 1975- 2000- • We have to completely change the paradigm of permanent,
driven by increasing female same time 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 1949 1974 1999 2024 full-time, I-work-for-one-company-only approach
workforce participation Source: Bank of England and Office for Budget Responsibility, (2018)
• We have to be able to attract and ultimately have talent
• Male employment rates Pay is in the doldrums performing from ‘anywhere’
have declined since the 1980s, • Before the Covid-19 pandemic, the IMF and
• The OECD described the pay stagnation of • We have to rethink what is ‘core and contingent’ capability
reflecting the changing structure OECD were warning about a prolonged
the 2010s as ‘unprecedented’ on a global as well as local basis
of the economy period of lacklustre productivity, described
• Average pay levels have fallen further in by the FT’s Chris Giles as ‘synchronised Specifically the energy transition for us will require:
• The impact of Covid-19 on stagnation’
most countries – where they have risen
employment levels is likely to be severe in • ‘New-skilling’ a vast no-skills and low-skills workforce in
it is the result of low-paid workers being
the short-term – the OECD forecasts a rise our emerging market talent pools. We predict a positive
completely laid off
in unemployment from 5% to 9%, rising to Conclusions emerging market dynamic which is unlikely to mirror the
12% in the event of the second infection • OECD forecasts continuing pay stagnation, perceived OECD trend that displaced workers without
wave we are now experiencing hitting low paid, part-time and self- In our view, the most serious labour market
challenges facing companies are the need to degrees are more likely to move into lower skill jobs than
employed workers hardest to re-skill.
• The longer-term impact is difficult to assess shift business models and ways of working in
– the OECD expects a gradual recovery; • According to the UK’s Office for Budget response to changing consumer behaviour and • Activating a much larger part of the female talent pool of
the UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility Responsibility forecasts, average annual finding the skills to make that happen. In the the emerging market talent pools.
forecasts a return to near pre-pandemic earnings will not return to 2007 level in light of demographic headwinds, increasing
employment levels by 2024-25 real terms until 2026 – two decades of pay demand for technical skills and a hitherto For this to become real, we need a major call to action
stagnation poor record on reskilling, we believe the IMF’s in order to combine industry, education and government
warning from 2018 of simultaneous skills collaboration and align interests and priorities.
Skills shortages look likely shortages and high unemployment looks likely.
• Retirement of the 1960s baby bulge will see
Productivity Investment in employee development and the
large sections of the population leave the • Recovery in the advanced economies was organisational ability to deploy technology is
workforce, taking their skills with them slow after the 2008 financial crisis every bit as important as the technology itself.
Governments and companies should focus on
• The IMF warns that it is unlikely that many • UK per capita GDP is on course for 1% this as a matter of urgency.
of those displaced by automation will be annual growth this quarter century,
able to re-skill quickly enough compared with 2.5% over the previous two12
HRD BRIEFING
Future of work
Future of
Recommended
further reading
Career VS Purpose and
Capability Belonging Diversity of Paths
Dr. Jessica
Bigazzi-
Foster | Head
of Executive
talent Higher titles, more power, and increased
compensation will always be attractive incentives,
but increasingly so are personal growth and
development. Vertical moves and career
trajectories are balanced with a desire for more
One of the most frequent characteristics cited
about GenX is a desire for meaning and purpose
in their work. We suspect this has actually always
been true of the workforce, but older generations
did not know or think to expect this from their
While certainly we were never uniform as
humans in our aspirations and desires, a look
back at antiquated company policies seemed
to presume we were. Work and life are
more unpredictable than ever, and access to
How to be an
Inclusive Leader,
WEBINAR
Be a Better Ally,
Bench | RHR As working adults, we devote breadth and skill building. As the guarantees work lives. Now, once their basic needs of being information and options has made employees
ARTICLE
International significant time and energy to our of long-term employment shrink, employees able to support themselves and their families more informed and proactive in their own career
companies. This has been true for are increasingly aware of the experiences they are met, employees begin to look for more. choices. As a result, any practice that is meant
are curating and the marketability of those skill They want a place where they can feel relevant, to attract and retain key talent must account
generations and will be constant for
sets. This trend complicates career pathing, connected, and valued. They want to belong to for this diversity of preferences. Healthcare
the seeable future. What is changing, where clean linear progressions were once something bigger. Job descriptions, for example, menus, flexible benefits, self-service learning,
however, is the relationships we have easy to predict. As a result, cataloging growth need to move away from sterile descriptions and alternative career pathing are just a few
with our employers and the relative opportunities will be as important as tracking of capabilities towards vivid insights on how of the trends that highlight a pivot towards
compensation and job grade. the role drives impact and connects to the employee-centered experiences. The bottom
importance of work versus life/ mission. Managers and mentors need to create line of this, and all the trends above,
family domains. Some of these shifts, environments where employees understand their is increased complexity
outlined below, have significant value and believe their voice will be heard. and a greater need
Balance, Mobility to understand our
implications for the ways companies
manage careers and plan for and Wellness employees as
whole and diverse
leadership succession. Gone are the days when career ambition was Equal Access and individuals.
the primary influencer in the choices people
made about their work lives. Working hard is
Sponsorship
good; however, neglecting our families and On the surface, talent processes are a set of
friends and compromising our own well-being is structured processes and disciplines that lead
Aspirations not. Looking back at retirement and wondering
if the sacrifices were worth it is not something
to objective choices. In reality, they are shaped
by a myriad of historical, interpersonal, and
There was a time when it was not uncommon anyone looks forward to. For example, while political dynamics, many of which advantage
to hear long-term employees say they were international assignments remain a critical some groups of individuals over others. As our
“happy to go where they were needed.” It was component to the development of leaders in collective awareness of the value of diverse
a willingness to serve, tied to a commitment global companies (and arguably all companies), teams and the systemic issues that create
to a company. More common today is the we are increasingly aware of the toll these disparity increases, companies are seeking new
expectation that an employee’s aspirations take on families and dual-career couples. The ways to solve an old and persistent problem.
and preferences are at least as important as result is a complex web of work, life, personal The solutions typically require a combination of
the needs of the company. This means that no goals, company needs, and opportunities, that objective external data; training to understand
talent card or succession profile is complete requires careful navigation by both employees how bias influences decision-making; and explicit
without a transparent understanding of the and their mentors, managers, and HR partners. programs that increase exposure, support, and
goals of the person. sponsorship for underrepresented groups.13
HRD BRIEFING
Future of work
Role of
few years. Companies have taken a broader Companies Act for enhanced corporate disclosure Recommended
view of their stakeholders, recognising the of stakeholder engagement mechanisms. further reading
inter-dependency between businesses and
their employees, customers, shareholders, While companies such as Unilever are well
advanced in demonstrating their positive
Organisation
suppliers and communities. The events of 2020,
including Black Lives Matter, Covid-19 and contribution to society, for most this is a work
Brexit, have brought these interdependencies in progress. In a recent report on ‘Navigating When Efficiency
Jennifer
into sharper focus and have challenged leaders the New World of Stakeholder Governance’ Goes Too Far,
Duvalier | Non
by Board Intelligence, 50% of Boards surveyed PODCAST
in society
Executive to review their approach to engaging with an
Director extended universe of stakeholders. believe that Covid-19 brought their commitment Do the U.S.’s
and Chair of to stakeholders into focus. The survey found Big Four Tech
Remuneration In the Boardrooms of the organisations where I purpose-driven organisations nearly three times Companies
Committee | am involved, the time devoted to consideration more likely to focus on their stakeholders as a Have a Vision for
Mitie Plc of wider stakeholder interests has grown result of the Covid-19 crisis than companies who the Future?,
ARTICLE
and deepened. It has shifted from a periodic didn’t identify as purpose-driven.
As much of the UK endures consideration of Corporate Social Responsibility,
another coronavirus lockdown, often in the run up to the publication of the
Annual Report and Accounts, to an active, HR’s role
the national conversation ongoing exploration of how corporate purpose is
HR has an important role to play in linking
encompasses diverse topics delivered in a way that benefits broader society.
corporate purpose with contribution to society,
This pronounced change from a compliance
of wellbeing and mental mindset to a view of stakeholder engagement
enabling dialogue across the organisation to define
key internal and external stakeholders and areas
health, remote working, as an important driver of short and long-term
for exploration. For example, the opportunity for
success is set to become an important factor for
online schooling, support for leadership teams, and HR, to embrace.
the company to review its suppliers and support
local communities to access under-represented
businesses and aid for those Increasingly, investors are asking Boards and employees and customers, or the chance to
at risk of financial or health executive teams to prove how the businesses redefine its leadership capability frameworks
they run on behalf of shareholders are acting as and programmes to emphasise purposeful
insecurity. These seemingly a positive force in society, across environmental, business. Beyond shareholder metrics, consider
disparate dimensions are societal and governance (ESG) dimensions. Some what stakeholder metrics (employee, supplier,
large investors are directly linking their voting community, environmental) the company tracks
connected by an invisible thread policies on corporate resolutions to corporate and how often are these discussed by leadership
teams. How are these factors incorporated into
– the question of the role of the policies and disclosure on ESG dimensions. As
Chair of a plc Remuneration Committee, my key people processes, such as performance
organisation in society. recent experience consulting with shareholders management, reward and promotion?
in the US and UK on proposed changes to
Moving beyond words to action, measurement
executive remuneration arrangements showed a
‘Value’ and ‘Values’ far greater interest in corporate culture, equality
and impact is key, and those companies that
embrace their role in society as a source of
The line between corporate ‘value’ and and diversity, and environmental considerations
competitive advantage will be those whose
‘values’, in the past sharply delineated as than in the past. This trend is of course positive
reputations, values and value are enhanced in
‘hard, measurable financial value’ and ‘softer, and set to grow, not least because of the
the post Covid-19 world.
intangible values’, has blurred over the past requirement under section 172 of the UK14
HRD BRIEFING
Future of work
The
Conclusions. Recommended
Further Reading
The Coronavirus Gone are the days when executives would go
Embeddedness Pandemic away to attend a residential programme and
Future of
bring back a set of take-aways. Although the
Embeddedness will be a defining feature of The coronavirus pandemic has demonstrated campuses of top business schools will remain Covid-19
Heightens the
Professor David corporate learning in the future. Research has how much we can achieve with technology critical assets for corporate learning, ready to
Leadership Gap,
Bach | Strategy shown that embedding learning in participant’s when faced with no other option. As welcome groups when appropriate, ‘getting WHITE PAPER
Corporate
and Political professional practice is critical for both impact corporate clients and individual learners away from work to learn’ will no longer be
Economy, Dean Keep Your People
and return on investment. have settled into new work routines, learning the default. Instead, world-class, faculty- Learning When
of Innovation
has been swept up in a digital-first moment, led learning in engaging, interactive group You Go Virtual,
and Programs
| IMD Business with faculty embracing digital tools. Prior settings will be just one click away. ARTICLE
Learning
School to the crisis, few top business schools
had embraced online learning and many
Technology corporate clients were sceptical of the value
and effectiveness of purely online journeys.
Technology will play a critical role in enabling What both sides have now discovered is that
embedded learning. With the adoption of technology, can not only deliver the same
technology: impact as traditional face-to-face design,
• Learning can be organised in smaller, more but that it relaxes several prior constraints
digestible units highlighted in section two.
• Learning can be staggered over time to
foster absorption and real-time application
• Group size can vary along the learning
journey as home teams join exercises and
activities
• Learning can be personalised and
tailormade for individual learning journeys
• Professional practice is no longer distant
and instead provides the omnipresent
context for learning.15 HRD BRIEFING
LAST WORD INTRODUCING
The intention in putting this briefing together is to offer HR
Directors an accessible composite of the major influences
which will shape our activities. It is our first attempt in what
we intend to be an annual issue. Comments and
Mike Haffenden suggestions gratefully received.
| Director |
Corporate We’ve tried to address these matters in our forthcoming
To complement our programme HR Directors
Research Forum CRF and PARC programmes, which are outlined of research, webinars and events,
in this document. As ever our plans are based
Melissa Bates
on researching and delivering practical
in 2021 we will be launching four
| Membership
Engagement recommendations to contemporary Digital Communities. In 2020, we
Manager | business issues.
Corporate
have seen the value of regular
Research Forum As you will see we have responded to exchange in developing capability
changing circumstances by providing
top-class information in a different and enhancing performance,
way. We’re missing face-to-face despite the difficulties faced in
discussion but are establishing new
‘communities’ which will augment attending physical events. Our
our reports and online meetings. new Digital Communities enable
Thanks for your continued support. us to be agile in responding HR DIRECTORS
to your priorities as they arise
throughout the year.
OD, Culture and Change
Our HR Director Community will deliver a
curated mix of regularly updated content,
webinars, expert-led insight and facilitated peer Talent, Leadership & Learning
exchange within a confidential environment built
on trust and the desire to share and develop.
Diversity, Inclusivity & Wellbeing
Join our HR Director Community by emailing
communities@crforum.co.ukWATCH 2021 PROGRAMME INTRO
By Invitation Online Briefing with
HR Directors’ Briefing Wednesday 20 January Online
Discussion Paper
Delivering Value Through Mergers and
Online Masterclass and Research Paper Tuesday 9 March Online
Acquisitions: HR’s Critical Role
Strategic Workforce Planning: Unlocking
Online Masterclass and Research Paper Thursday 15 April Online
Future Capabilities to Drive Business Success
Reinventing the Business Model: Masterclass hosted at IMD Business
Tuesday 18 – Wednesday 19 May Lausanne
Leading in the New Landscape School with Discussion Paper
The Organisation Development Symposium –
Live-Streamed Masterclass Thursday 10 June London and Online
Improving Agility, Analysis, Learning and Action
Design Thinking for HR Leaders Two-Day Residential Workshop Tuesday 29 – Wednesday 30 June Greater London
Live-Streamed Summer Lecture
Education: A Manifesto for Change Thursday 8 July London and Online
and Drinks Reception
Leading for Reinvention Masterclass with Discussion Paper Thursday 2 September Stockholm
Building a Future-fit Workforce: Live-Streamed Masterclass and
Tuesday 21 September London and Online
Reskilling and Rethinking Work Research Paper
Building and Sustaining Great Organisations Live-Streamed International Conference Monday 11 – Wednesday 13 October Athens and Online
Beyond Engagement: Creating a Purposeful
Masterclass and Research Paper Tuesday 2 November Amsterdam
Employee Experience
HR Directors’ Dinner: The Year Ahead By Invitation Members Dinner Tuesday 24 November LondonPARC 2021 EVENTS
TH E NE W RE A LI TI E S OF GLOBA L TRA D E Webinar and Online Group Discussion
Tuesday 26 January
ONLI NE P E E R E XC H A NGE 1 : WORKI NG FROM Online Peer Exchange 1
H OME – TH E RE WA RD I MP LI C ATI ONS Wednesday 17 February
D E LI VE RI NG VA LUE TH ROUGH ME RGE RS A ND Webinar and Online Group Discussion
ACQUI SI TI ONS – H R’ S C RI TI C A L ROLE Tuesday 9 March
FA I R RE WA RD P OLI C Y – W H AT D OE S I T ME A N Live Panel Discussion
A ND H OW I S I T C H A NGI NG? Wednesday 24 March
E MP LOYME NT P OLI C I E S – W H AT W E NE E D Afternoon Meeting, London
A ND W H Y W E NE E D TH E M Wednesday 14 April
STRATEGI C RE WA RD SKI LLS MA STE RC L A SS Two-Day Residential, Windsor
Wednesday 12 – Thursday 13 May
ONLI NE P E E R E XC H A NGE 2 Online Peer Exchange 2
Wednesday 19 May
W H Y ORGA NI SATI ONS FA I L – D O W E KNOW PARC Conference, London
TH E SI GNS A ND C A N W E RE A D TH E M? Wednesday 2 June
E D UC ATI ON – A MA NI FE STO FOR C H A NGE Summer Lecture, London
Thursday 8 July
ME A SURI NG FI NA NC I A L P E RFORMA NC E Afternoon Meeting, London
Wednesday 14 July
ONLI NE P E E R E XC H A NGE 3 Online Peer Exchange 3
Wednesday 28 July
H OUSE OF LORD S LUNC H Members Lunch, London
Wednesday 8 September
BUI LD I NG A FUTURE-FI T WORKFORC E TO Afternoon Meeting, London
D RI VE P ROD UC TI VI T Y A ND P E RFORMA NC E Wednesday 22 September
PROGRAMME BUI LD I NG A ND SUSTA I NI NG GRE AT
ORGA NI SATI ONS
ECONOMI C UP DATE – 20 22 A ND BE YOND
International Conference, Athens
Monday 11 – Wednesday 13 October
Webinar and Online Group Discussion
Wednesday 17 November
RE VI E W A ND 20 22 P ROGRA MME L AUNC H Members Dinner, London
Wednesday 1 DecemberCRF Learning
THE PROGRAMME DATES AND LOCATION COST PER ATTENDEE
HRBP – BUSINESS CATALYST Two-day online: Online £1,800 CRF members
18-19 March £3,600 Non-members
Programme
Two-day residential: Greater London £1,450 CRF members
26-27 October £2,900 Non-members
OPEN PROGRAMMES
DISRUPT OR DIE Five consecutive mornings AND faculty hour: Online £1,650 CRF members
19-23 April AND one week later £3,300 Non-members
2o21
BECOMING AN EFFECTIVE HRD Two-day residential plus action day: Greater London £2,750 CRF members
7-8 June AND 15 July £5,000 Non-members
ASPIRING GROUP HRD 3x two-day modules plus networking dinners: £8,000 CRF members
Central London £15,000 Non-members
28-29 September, 23-24 November AND
18-19 January 2022
INTEGRATED TALENT MANAGEMENT Three consecutive mornings AND follow-on: Online £1,450 CRF members
15-17 November AND 1 February 2022 £2,900 Non-members
CREATING BUSINESS IMPACT THROUGH Two consecutive mornings AND follow-on: Online £1,350 CRF members
PEOPLE ANALYTICS 7-8 December AND 8 February 2022 £2,700 Non-members
INTRODUCTION TO CRF LEARNING ON DEMAND EFFECTIVE BUSINESS PARTNERING Courses completed at your own pace,
in your own space: Online
ON DEMAND PROGRAMMES Launching January 2021, flexible dates
INTEGRATED TALENT MANAGEMENT
BUILDING A HIGH-PERFORMANCE £249 CRF members
CULTURE £299 Non-members
Courses completed at your own pace, (Prices are for individuals,
DEVELOPING AN EFFECTIVE team pricing differs)
in your own space: Online
REWARD STRATEGY
programmes launching throughout 2021, flexible dates
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