What impact for non-curricular internships? - IRPET
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What impact for
Crisiinternships?
non-curricular o ripresa?
Leonardo Ghezzi e Nicola Sciclone
E. Cappellini, M. L. Maitino, V. Patacchini, N. Sciclone
REASSESSMENT AND PERSPECTIVES OF LABOUR POLICIES
14 December 2017, Rome
IRPET - Istituto Regionale per la Programmazione Economica della Toscana
In summary 1. The problem Youth unemployment has a large structural component In Italy the school-to-work transition is slow and hard (Pastore, 2017). This problem contributes to explain the high level of youth unemployment. In Italy, and in Tuscany, the structural component of youth unemployment is connected to the misalignment between educational provision and productive skills requirement. This mismatch explains around 40 percent of the observed unemployed (Irpet 2017) 2. The measure to facilitate the entry of young people into work Giovanisì project The Tuscany Region, as part of the Giovanisì project, grants private firms to receive a contribution of 300 euros if they activate non-curricular internships with young people between 18 and 29 years old. The duration of the training period is six months 3. The evaluation exercise: key findings Non curricular internships improves employment opportunities of young jobseekers They are effective stepping-stones into a work, although not necessarily lead to a regular work Internships effectiveness depends on participants characteristics Effectiveness is more relevant for participants without previous working experiences. As a whole, internships are more effective for youngest people (18-29 aged) with worst employment chances, while they are less useful for those easier to relocate in the labour market
In summary Internees have faster transition to work and enduring careers Compared to other contractual forms, internees have shorter waiting time for a subsequent hiring and longer employment spells: if first job seekers, they spend more days in employment than non internees (considering 18 months subsequent their entry in the labour market). 4. The evaluation exercise: Data Base Analysis relies on administrative data, using: a) the dataset on European Social Fund (ESF) activities; b) the dataset on unemployed signed up by Public Employment Services; c) the labour market flows information system (hirings, transformations, extensions and terminations of dependent contracts). All data refers to Tuscany (Italy) for the period 2012-2014. 5. The evaluation exercise: methodology The evaluation is based on non experimental control group design. Exploiting administrative data, impact estimates are obtained controlling for initial conditions through statistical matching (propensity score matching).
Internships in Tuscany: main figures
Internships 2009-2016 Internships on total hirings 2009-2016
Absolute values Percentage point
16.000 8% No confunded by GiovaniSì
No confunded by GiovaniSì
Cofunded by GiovaniSì Cofunded by GiovaniSì
14.000 7%
12.000 6%
10.000 5%
8.000 4%
6.000 3%
4.000 2%
2.000 1%
0 0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 201610%
12%
14%
16%
18%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Ristorazione
Commercio al dettaglio
Alloggio
Agricoltura
Istruzione
Attività sportive
Supporto per le funzioni d'ufficio
Servizi per edifici e paesaggio
Costruzione specializzati
Articoli in pelle e simili
Confezione di articoli di abbigliamento, in pelle e…
Personale domestico
Commercio all'ingrosso
Servizi per la persona
Magazzinaggio
Industrie alimentari
Prodotti in metallo (escl. macchinari)
Education.
P.A
Costruzioni
Composition
Attività creative, artistiche
Sanità
Assistenza sociale residenziale
Lotterie e le case da gioco
Assistenza sociale
Organizzazioni associative
Trasporto terrestre
Macchinari ed apparecchiature nca
Attività editoriali
Industrie tessili
Attività legali e contabilità
Commercio e ripar. autoveicoli
Attività dei servizi d'informazione e servizi informatici
Produzione di software, consulenza informatica
Ricerca, selezione, fornitura di personale
Pubblicità e ricerche di mercato
Silvicoltura
Agenzie di viaggio e tour operator
Riparazione, manutenzione e install. macchine
Servizi finanziari
Computer, prod. elettronica e ottica
Altre attività profes.
trade, Accomodation, Agricolture and
Attività immobiliari
These sector absorb 50% of the trainees
Altre industrie manifatturiere
Prodotti farmaceutici
Carta
Food and beverage service activities, Retail
Vigilanza e investigazione
Consulenza gestionale
Servizi postali
Prodotti della lavor. minerali non metal.
Gomma e materie plastiche
Raccolta, trattamento e smaltimento dei rifiuti
Altri mezzi di trasporto
Studi di architettura e d'ingegneria
Percentage value
Prodotti chimici
Ricerca scientifica e sviluppo
Mobili
Metallurgia
Legno
Noleggio e leasing operativo
Appar. elettriche e per uso domestico
Cultura
Incidence
Industria delle bevande
Servizi finanziari e assic.
Ingegneria civile
Stampa
Telecomunicazioni
Energia elet., gas, vapore e aria condiz.
Internships in Tuscany: main figures
Autoveicoli, rimorchi e semirimorchi
and whosale trade
Computer e beni personali
Trasporto marittimo
Raccolta e fornituraornitura di acqua
Servizi di gestione dei rifiuti
Minerali da cave e miniere
Trasporto aereo
Assicurazioni
Pesca
Coke e prodotti derivanti dal petrolio
Gestione delle reti fognarie
Organizzazioni ed organismi extraterritoriali
Attività di programmazione e trasmissione
Beni e servizi per uso proprio
Servizi di supporto all'estrazione
Servizi veterinari
Industria del tabacco
Compared to the weight that hirings
Attività di prod. cinematografica, video e musicale
the more use of internships are retail
have in each sectors, those that make
Minerali metalliferi
Petrolio greggio e di gas naturale
Estrazione di carboneQuestions and techniques
RESEARCH QUESTIONS STATISTIC TECHNIQUES
1. Has internships improved young Propensity score matching
people to enter the labor market?
And who benefit the most?
2. What happens to trainees once
their employment relationship has Cox regression
ceased? Do they find a new job Linear parametric regression
faster? Do they work even longer?
3. Is the effect of training persistent Propensity score matching
over time?Identification strategy
GROUP OF TREATED GROUP OF CONTROLS
Trainees For all three-month periods identified
All those who have started an on the basis of the interniships’
internships between 2012 and starting dates, the control group is
2014. Trainees are grouped by represented by all unemployed
three-month periods on the basis of people being registered to Public
the starting date of the hiring Employment Services for the first
time in the same period.
Source: European Social Fund Source: Public Employement
database Services database
Number: 14.400 Treated Number: 80.700 ControlsIdentification strategy
IDENTIFICATION STRATEGY
Counterfactual approach based on
propensity scorematching
MATCHING VARIABLES
Exact matching on:
sex, nationality, unemployment status (first time
job seeker/unemployed) and period of evaluation
Propensity score matching on:
age, local labour systemBalancing test
MEAN STANDARDIZED VARIANCE
DIFFERENCES RATIO
Pre- Post- Pre- Post-
matching matching matching matching
First job seekers
Age 0.286 0.000 0.850 1.001
SLL 0.047 0.000 0.900 1.003
Unemployed
Age -0.137 0.000 0.872 1.001
SLL 0.005 0.000 0.961 1.001Balancing test: treated and controls along
common support
First job seekers Unemployed
Units that have same characteristics should have a positive but not perfect probability of
being either participants or nonparticipants to the measure. This condition is respected: in
fact we observe the overlap in the propensity scores of the participants and non-
participantsHas internships improved young people to enter the
labor market? And who benefit the most?
EXIT RATE FROM UNEMPLOYMENT TO EMPLOYMENT
Probability of being hired with and without interniships
First job seekers Unemployed
90 100
Counterfactual Average Treatment effect on then Treated (ATT)
Average Treatment effect on then Treated (ATT) Counterfactual
80
5
70 11
7 60
50 3
40
66 72
30 60
54 20
40 46
10
0
Not statically significat
-10 -20
within 9 months within 12 months within 18 months within 9 months within 12 months within 18 monthsWhat happens to trainees once their
employment relationship has ceased?
Cox (Proportional Hazards) Regression Survival function
Coef. P>z
Main
Età 0.0298702 0.000
Maschio 0.1751649 0.000
Italiano -0.2218391 0.000
Diploma 0.5120911 0.000
Laurea 0.7228903 0.000
Durata contratto di esordio 0.0011916 0.000
Contratto di esordio
Apprendistato 0.0088142 0.444
Somministrazione 0.05992084 0.000
Flessibili (parasub e
-0.2013217 0.000
intermitt)
Tirocinio 0.1660257 0.000
tvc
Età -0.0173914 0.000
Maschio -0.0209262 0.000
Cittadinanza 0.0035254 0.417
Durata contratto di esordio -0.00027 0.000Does the internship help you work longer?
Days worked in the 18 months from the end of the contract
of debut in the labour market - Linear regression
I II III
Femmina -10*** -8.5*** -5.5**
Straniero 19.7*** 27.5*** 23.1***
Età 0.3 1.3*** 0.3
Obbligo -22.7*** -15.3*** -16.5***
Laurea 51.6*** 35.8*** 24.1***
Apprendistato 31*** 1.0
Somministrazione 15.4*** 35.4***
Flessibile (parasub, intermitt) 13.3*** 4.1
Tirocinio 113*** 78.2***
Durata contratto esordio 0.5***
COSTANTE (id tipo) 236*** 189*** 172***
* Significant at10%, ** Significant at 5%, *** Significant at 1%-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1 month
2 month
3 month
4 month
5 month
6 month
7 month
8 month
9 month
10 month
11 month
12 month
13 month
14 month
15 month
ATT
16 month
First job seekers
17 month
Treated
18 month
19 month
20 month
21 month
Counterfactual
22 month
23 month
24 month
-20%
-10%
0%
-30%
10%
30%
40%
50%
60%
20%
1 month
2 month
3 month
4 month
5 month
6 month
7 month
8 month
9 month
10 month
11 month
12 month
13 month
Monthly probability of being employed
14 month
15 month
Unemployed
ATT
16 month
17 month
18 month
Treated
19 month
20 month
21 month
22 month
Counterfactual
23 month
24 month
Persistence of the effect of internship over timeConclusions Non curricular internships improves employment opportunities of youth Internships effectiveness is more relevant for youth without previous working experiences Non curricular internships ensure higher probability to find a new job and shorter waiting time in unemployment (comparing to other fixed term contracts) Internships effectiveness is persistent in the short and medium term
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