WAGER GUIDE - KENTUCKY DERBY MAY01/2021
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1/ST BET //
WAGER GUIDE
KENTUCKY DERBY
MAY01/2021
CHURCHILL
DOWNS
MEET THE 2021
DERBY CONTENDERS
By Johnny D., @XBJohnnyD
ESSENTIAL QUALITY: Unbeaten in five career starts, this son of Tapit is the defending Breeders’
Cup Juvenile winner and reigning 2-year-old champ. He’s also the current consensus pick as top
3-year-old. This Brad Cox-trained colt has done everything right in two 2021 starts. He romped
home in the Grade 3 Southwest at Oaklawn Park and then out-fought a game, pace scenario-
aided Highly Motivated at Keeneland to win the Grade 2 Blue Grass by a neck. He races a bit off
the pace early, but can quickly reach contention when prompted. He has won by as much as four
and one-quarter lengths and by as little as a neck. Last September, he broke his maiden first time
out going six furlongs at Churchill Downs, so you know he likes the track. Jockey Luis Saez seeks
redemption aboard this colt for the disappointment and criticism the rider endured following
the disqualification of his mount Maximum Security from first to 17th in the 2019 Kentucky Derby.
Trainer Brad Cox won last season’s Eclipse Award as the nation’s top trainer.
HOT ROD CHARLIE: Ever since stretching out to two turns on the main track and adding blinkers,
this son of Preakness winner Oxbow has been a tiger. His first race under those particular
circumstances came in the fourth start of his career and resulted in a one-mile maiden score at
Santa Anita in October. He then finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by a mere neck to
the probable Kentucky Derby favorite Essential Quality at gigantic 94-1 odds. ‘Charlie began 2021
in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita by finishing third-best by a neck in a desperate photo
involving Medina Spirt. Shipped to Louisiana for that state’s Derby, Hot Rod Charlie dominated
throughout to win by two lengths. Two-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Doug O’Neill appears
to have this fellow hitting on all cylinders as May 1 fast approaches.
SUPER STOCK: He burst onto the Kentucky Derby scene with a romping score in the Grade 1
Arkansas Derby. It was quite a turnaround for the son of Dialed In. At 12-1 odds, he roared home to
a more than two-length victory while looking more like a 4-5 shot under Hall of Fame trainer Steve
Asmussen’s main rider Ricardo Santana. A half-length defeat by eventual Grade 3 Lexington winner
King Fury in the Street Sense was this colt’s previous claim to fame last year, and it came over the
Churchill Downs strip. Of note is that one of his third-place finishes at 2 came nearly five lengths
behind Kentucky Derby favorite Essential Quality in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland.
ROCK YOUR WORLD: Previously unbeaten in a pair of impressive turf races – including a maiden
and stakes victory – this son of Candy Ride upset heavily favored Medina Spirit with a wire-to-wire
tally in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. Trainer John Sadler was not surprised at the outcome, as he
anticipated that this colt possessed mad skills. A March 28 bullet, five-furlong workout in :59 1/5
(best-of-76) enhanced confidence in the colt and he delivered the Grade 1 victory. Detractors will
point to Sadler’s lackluster record when racing out of town in graded stakes, but the conditioner
saddled Accelerate to win the 2018 BC Classic at Churchill Downs—home of the Kentucky Derby.
Besides the added distance, Rock Your World is expected to face more early pressure in the Derby
than he did in the Arcadia version. How he reacts to that will decide where he finishes in the Run
for the Roses. He raced a bit greenly in the SA Derby stretch, changing leads back and forth, but
it didn’t matter. He was that good. Interesting note: the breeders of Rock Your World are Hall of
Fame trainer Ron McAnally and his wife, Debbie.
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MEET THE 2021
DERBY CONTENDERS
By Johnny D., @XBJohnnyD
KNOWN AGENDA: Gulfstream Park Championship Meet top trainer Todd Pletcher and leading
jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. combined skills with Known Agenda to win the Grade 1 Curlin Florida Derby.
No surprise there. What was a bit surprising, though, were the juicy, nearly 9/2 odds his backers
enjoyed. Fresh off an 11-length allowance tally while sporting a new set of blinkers, this son of
Curlin got a bit lost in the Florida Derby wagering behind favored Greatest Honour. Perhaps, a
field-splitting, well-beaten fifth as favorite in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby had left a poor taste in
collective horseplayers’ mouths. Worse than third only once in six starts, Known Agenda boasts
just two wins—a maiden and the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Others have much better resumes than
this guy, but he’s hot right now for a trainer destined to enter the Hall of Fame in a few months and
already with a couple of Derby trophies.
MEDINA SPIRIT: Medina Spirit sent backers home with empty pockets following a disappointing
runner-up performance to Rock Your World as the less-than-even-money favorite in the Grade 1
Santa Anita Derby. It was a perplexing April for trainer Bob Baffert as Concert Tour also came up
short at odds-on in the Arkansas Derby. Medina Spirit’s only two previous losses in four starts had
come against stablemate Life is Good, who has been sidelined to injury. This guy has some early
pace, but is more of a ‘grinder’ than a speedster. While he’s never been worse than second in five
starts, he’ll need to pick up his game to win the Kentucky Derby. He’s steady and trained by six-
time Derby winner Baffert, who seeks a record No. 7.
HIGHLY MOTIVATED: Off a slightly troubled, close third as favorite in the Grade 3 Gotham at
Aqueduct, trainer Chad Brown boldly shipped this son of Into Mischief to Keeneland and a head-on
collision with top-ranked soph Essential Quality in the Grade 2 Blue Grass. The move nearly worked
as the unbeaten 2-year-old champ had to dig deep in the stretch to survive a neck decision over
Highly Motivated. A stakes winner at two, this colt has never been worse than third in five starts with
two wins and two seconds. He did have things his own way early in the Grade 2 Blue Grass, but it was
an important forward step for the colt going a mile and one-eighth for the first time.
KENTUCKY OAKS
MONEY-BACK SPECIAL
GET YOUR CASH BACK, UP TO $20, IF THE HORSE YOU BET
TO WIN THE KENTUCKY OAKS FINISHES 2ND OR 3RD.
FRIDAY, APRIL 30 // CHURCHILL DOWNS // RACE #11 (5:51PM ET)
Void where prohibited. National Gambling Support Line 800.522.4700.
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HANDICAP THE DERBY
LIKE EDDIE OLCZYK
? DID YOU KNOW?
The 1/ST BET app uses more than
50 factors in evaluating each horse
in a race, drawing from a library of
more than 200,000 previous races
to match past success with future
success. 1/ST BET automatically
matches and ranks the proven, most
successful factors in each race, while
We asked renowned 1/ST and NBC handicapper Eddie Olczyk which it also gives you the ability to select
handicapping angles he applies when analyzing the Kentucky Derby. Now, for the your own set of factors to make
first time, you can reconstruct Edzo’s approach and put it to work for yourself by personalized, artificial intelligence-
based selections in mere seconds.
combining forces with the 1/ST BET app.
Olczyk’s keys center on a horse’s speed to the mile marker at the head of the Kentucky Derby stretch, pedigree for the distance
and how weather and conditions may impact his selections. “Jockey and trainer stats aren’t for me in the Kentucky Derby,”
Olczyk said. “At that level, they’re all capable with the right horse.”
THE MILE MARKER 1/ST BET FACTORS TO APPLY
“Where are you when the lead horse gets to the one-mile point in the mile and BEST LIFETIME SPEED
one-quarter race? That’s the key,” Olczyk explained. “The last seven Derby BEST SPEED LAST 3
winners were first, second or third at that point and four of the last seven were AVERAGE SPEED LAST 3
on the lead, which I find very interesting. The ability to be up close, part of the AVG. LAST 3 E1 PACE
pace, matters. Consider a horse’s body of work in terms of speed and pace AVG. LAST 3 E2 PACE
figures, not just his last start, because each horse may or may not have been AVG. LAST 3 TURN TIMES
as hard-asked in their most recent start by trainer’s choice.”
PEDIGREE POINTS 1/ST BET FACTORS TO APPLY
“The last quarter-mile, once in position, is about stamina. None of these DISTANCE PEDIGREE RATING
horses have been a mile and one-quarter previously, which is part of the DIRT PEDIGREE RATING
Derby’s lore. That’s why pedigree matters to me.”
WEATHER OR NOT 1/ST BET FACTORS TO APPLY
“Wet tracks have been a Derby constant in recent years. If you’re handicapping BEST SPEED OFF TRACK
or betting ahead, you have to at least plan for the scenario. I’m constantly MUD PEDIGREE RATING
checking up on it. Not every horse has run on off tracks, so bloodlines can tell
us who might enjoy it.”
Olczyk’s final pointer, stay flexible. “Research is great, but don’t forget the eye test,” he reminded. “Watch what’s going on Derby Day,
how the track is playing, what’s been working for you that day. Go back and reassess which factors you’re putting into your decisions.”
Note: The 1/ST BET selections for the big race will be published in our updated Kentucky Derby Wager Guide (available April 29), along with Edzo’s final picks!
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FACTORS THROUGH HISTORY
KENTUCKY DERBY 2016-2020
We searched the 1/ST BET archives to re-examine the last five editions of the Kentucky Derby. See where the winners ranked
best in their respective fields in terms of handicapping factors, and look for those commonalities with this year’s runners when
using the 1/ST BET app to handicap the “Run for the Roses.” Learn More.
2020 2018 - CONTINUED
WINNER: AUTHENTIC JOCKEY WIN % 2 YRS. RACE TYPE
RANKED FIRST IN 9 FACTORS WIN %
HORSES BEATEN % TRAINER CURRENT YR.
TRAINER 6 MO. WIN % LAST LATE PACE
JOCKEY WIN % 2 YRS. RACE TYPE JOCKEY 1 YR. WIN %
TRAINER CURRENT YEAR AVG. OF LAST 3 E1 PACE
LAST E2 PACE AVG. OF LAST 3 E2 PACE
AVG. OF LAST 3 E1 PACE
AVG. OF LAST 3 E2 PACE HORSES WHO LED MOST FACTORS:
DIST. WORKED SINCE LAST RACE JUSTIFY (15), GOOD MAGIC (4)
TRAINER WIN % 1 YEAR
2017
HORSES WHO LED MOST FACTORS:
TIZ THE LAW (17), AUTHENTIC (9), WINNER: ALWAYS DREAMING
MAX PLAYER (8) RANKED FIRST IN 3 FACTORS:
IN THE MONEY %
2019 JOCKEY CURRENT YEAR
AVERAGE LATE PACE
WINNER: COUNTRY HOUSE
RANKED FIRST IN 3 FACTORS: HORSES WHO LED MOST FACTORS:
JOCKEY 1 YR. WIN % CLASSIC EMPIRE (7), GORMLEY (5)
JOCKEY 6 MO. WIN %
AVG. LAST 3 TURN TIME 2016
HORSES WHO LED MOST FACTORS: WINNER: NYQUIST
GAME WINNER (8), RANKED FIRST IN 5 FACTORS
MAXIMUM SECURITY (7) AVG. OFF-TRACK EARNINGS
AVG. LIFETIME EARNINGS
2018 IN THE MONEY %
WIN %
WINNER: JUSTIFY
HORSES DEFEATED %
RANKED FIRST IN 15 FACTORS
SPEED LAST RACE HORSES WHO LED MOST FACTORS:
AVG. SPEED LAST 3 EXAGGERATOR (7), NYQUIST (5),
AVG. SPEED BEST 2 OF LAST 3 CREATOR (5), OSCAR NOMINATED (5)
BEST SPEED LAST 3
BEST LIFETIME SPEED FACTOR CATEGORIES:
BEST SPEED FAST TRACK = PERFORMANCE
BEST SPEED OFF TRACK = RESULTS
HORSES DEFEATED % = JOCKEY+ TRAINER Authentic (2020)
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KENTUCKY DERBY
WAGERING FACTS
Below are some informative wagering tidbits from past Kentucky Derby events.
WIN-PLACE-SHOW ODDS DERBY FAVORITES IN POINTS’ SYSTEM ERA (2013-PRESENT)
(Last 25 Years, Odds to $1) Year Favorite Odds ($1) Fin.
Win Odds: Average: 14.10-to-1 2020 Tiz the Law .70 2nd
High: 65.20 (Country House, 2019) 2019 Improbable 4.00 4th
Low: 2.30 (Fusaichi Pegasus, 2000; Nyquist 2016) 2018 Justify 2.90 1st
Notable: After 6 straight favorites, the past 2 Derby winners have 2017 Always Dreaming 4.70 1st
netted 65-1 and 8-1 returns. 2016 Nyquist 2.30 1st
2015 American Pharoah 2.90 1st
Place Odds: Average: 17.15-to-1 2014 California Chrome 2.50 1st
High: 71.60 (Closing Argument, 2005) 2013 Orb 5.40 1st
Low: 0.70 (Tiz the Law, 2020)
Notable: Last year, Tiz the Law became the third Derby favorite to finish DERBY FAVORITES BY DECADE
second since 2000 (joining Bodemeister ‘12 and Empire Maker ‘03). 2020s 0-for-1
2010s 6-for-10
Show Odds: Average: 12.04 2000s 4-for-10
High: 46.50 (Mr. Big News, 2020) 1990s 0-for-10
Low: 2.70 (Indian Charlie, 1998) 1980s 0-for-10
Notable: In 2020, Mr. Big News offered the longest price to finish 1970s 6-for-10
third in the Derby since 86-1 bomber Mane Minister in 1991.
HIGHEST-PRICED DERBY FAVORITES IN HISTORY
EXACTA PAYOFFS (Odds to $1)
(Last 25 years, $2 Payoffs) Odds Horse Year Fin.
Average: $890.41 6.30 Lookin At Lucky 2010 6th
High: $9,814.80 (Giacomo-Closing Argument, 2005) 6.00 Harlan’s Holiday 2002 7th
Low: $30.60 (Nyquist-Exaggerator, 2016) 5.50 Sweetnorthernsaint 2006 7th
Notable: The last 2 Derby exactas provided the second-highest and 5.40 Orb 2013 1st
second-lowest returns of the past 20 years – $3,009.60 in 2019 and 5.20 Dialed In 2011 8th
$41 a year ago. 4.90 Street Sense 2007 1st
4.80 General Challenge/ 1999 5th
TRIFECTA PAYOFFS Excellent Meeting
(Last 25 years, $2 Payoffs) 4.70 Always Dreaming 2017 1st
Average: $11,722.60 4.40 Prairie Bayou 1993 2nd
High: $133,134.80 (Giacomo-Closing Argument-Afleet Alex, 2005) 4.20 Bodemeister 2012 2nd
Low: $173.40 (Nyquist-Exaggerator-Gun Runner, 2016) 4.10 Smarty Jones 2004 1st
Notable: Last year’s trifecta paid nearly 64 times the exacta,
thanks to 46-1 shot Mr. Big News in third. HIGHEST-PRICED DERBY RUNNERS IN SUPERFECTA
(Last 20 Years, Odds to $1)
SUPERFECTA PAYOFFS Odds Horse Year Fin.
(Since 1996, $1 Payoffs) 85.10 Instilled Regard 2018 4th
Average: $74,922.77 71.60 Closing Argument 2005 2nd
High: $864,253.50 (Giacomo-Closing Argument-Afleet Alex- 65.20 Country House 2019 1st
Don’t Get Mad, 2005) 50.60 Mine That Bird 2009 1st
Low: $350.00 (Silver Charm-Captain Bodgit-Free House-Pulpit, 1997) 50.30 Giacomo 2005 1st
Notable: Last year’s superfecta was the first to offer a 10-cent wagering 46.50 Mr. Big News 2020 3rd
minimum, creating a modest $792.58 dime payoff ($7925.80 for $1, 41.70 Limehouse 2004 4th
only about 1/10th the historical average). $1 minimum returns this year. 40.00 Battle of Midway 2017 3rd
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KENTUCKY DERBY
GRADE 1 - $3,000,000
3YO – 1 1/4 MILES (DIRT)
FLORIDA DERBY STATS & TRENDS
HIGH ON AGENDA 2019-‘20 DERBY HANDLE TOTALS
(Handle in Millions Except Hi-5)
By Jeremy Plonk, @HorsePlayerNow Pool 2019 2020
Win/Place/Show $65.7 $31.1
ANALYSIS: Well-backed runners attending the pace have become engrained in Exacta $26.0 $11.9
Trifecta $34.7 $13.0
Kentucky Derby success since California Chrome ushered in the style in 2014, the
Superfecta $16.6 $9.5
second year of the race’s qualifying points system. This year’s Blue Grass, Florida
Super High Five $644K $776K
Derby, Arkansas Derby and Louisiana Derby all were won by horses within 3 lengths Pick Four $4.1 $2.8
of the lead after the opening half-mile. The best of this crop should once again fit the Pick Five $4.0 $2.8
Derby’s best-laid plans. Oaks/Derby Double $2.8 $1.2
Pick Six $1.1 $2.4
MAIN CONTENDERS: The top-rated races I scouted this year by performance were
DERBY WINNERS’ PREVIOUS STARTS
the Blue Grass, Florida Derby and Santa Anita Derby among those still fighting, and
Year Derby Winner Sts 2YO 3YO
that’s where I’ll focus on discovering the winner. Derby favorite ESSENTIAL QUALITY ‘20* Authentic 5 1 4
won the Blue Grass to remain unbeaten, but my concern is that it was too tough ‘19 Country House 6 2 4
of a race, also a factor for its runner-up HIGHLY MOTIVATED. It’s a week closer to ‘18 Justify 3 0 3
the big Derby than the Florida Derby, with less recovery time, a real modern factor. ‘17 Always Dreaming 5 2 3
‘16 Nyquist 7 5 2
Meanwhile, KNOWN AGENDA checks all the boxes off his Florida Derby win, a race
‘15 Amer. Pharoah 5 3 2
that’s produced 3 of the last 8 Kentucky Derby winners and was DQ’d out of a fourth
‘14 Cal. Chrome 10 7 3
– not to mention last year’s Triple Crown-opening winner in the rearranged Belmont. ‘13 Orb 7 4 3
Super-talented Santa Anita Derby champ ROCK YOUR WORLD comes in with ‘12 I’ll Have Another 5 3 2
Justify’s electric, but awfully light, resume – one that wins the Kentucky Derby every ‘11 Animal Kingdom 4 2 2
100 years or so. His most recent pursuer MEDINA SPIRIT may be the crop’s most * - September Derby
steady performer for 6-time Derby winner Bob Baffert, but would be more of a Super
WORST FINAL PREP TO WIN DERBY
Saver-type Derby winner, steady but unspectacular, one we haven’t seen since 2010.
(Since 1906)
Fin. Horse Year
VALUE PLAYS: A deep closer has dotted the Derby superfecta every year since 12th Stone Street 1908
War Emblem’s theft in 2002 when even his pursuers were rather close up. The vast 5th Iron Liege 1957
majority of these closers have been the biggest prices amongst the annual exotics. 5th Count Turf 1951
5th Doneraile 1913
Find yours, match with a logical win contender and make some magic. DYNAMIC
5th Pink Star 1907
ONE has run impressive 103 BRIS late pace figures twice (96 in the Wood wasn’t
even near his best) and Todd Pletcher’s barn is going gangbusters since mid-March.
? KNOW THIS
Pletcher may also have the win value with KNOWN AGENDA in the 8-1 range.
All Wet: According to the National
$100 WAGERING STRATEGY: Weather Service, rain has fallen on
• $46 Win: KNOWN AGENDA Kentucky Derby Day 11 of the past
13 years when held in May. The track
• $18 Exacta part-wheel: KNOWN AGENDA with HIGHLY MOTIVATED and DYNAMIC ONE ($36)
condition has been sloppy or wet-fast
• $1 Trifecta part-wheel: KNOWN AGENDA with ALL with DYNAMIC ONE ($18)
each of the past 3 spring Derbies.
TOP 4 PICKS
1. KNOWN AGENDA 3. ESSENTIAL QUALITY
2. HIGHLY MOTIVATED 4. DYNAMIC ONE
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KENTUCKY DERBY
GRADE 1 - $3,000,000
3YO – 1 1/4 MILES (DIRT)
WE WANT THE WORLD KENTUCKY DERBY HISTORY
AND WE WANT IT NOW THE LAST...
ARKANSAS DERBY ALUM TO WIN:
By Jeff Siegel @jsiegelracing Country House (2019)
ANALYSIS: There once was an era when the favorite for the Kentucky Derby was BLUE GRASS ALUM TO WIN:
Street Sense (2007)
– or should have been – an automatic toss. It’s hard to believe the chalk went 20
consecutive years (1980-1999) without delivering. Since then, punters apparently
FLORIDA DERBY ALUM TO WIN:
have learned the game, because in the 21 years since that drought, the betting Always Dreaming (2017)
choice in the Triple Crown’s first jewel has gone 10-for-21. So, shouldn’t backers of
the undefeated 2020 champion 2-year-old ESSENTIAL QUALITY be able to wager LOUISIANA DERBY ALUM TO WIN:
with a good degree of confidence? Maybe not. Only two colts in 37 years – Street Country House (2019)
Sense and Nyquist – have been able to parlay a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile victory to
SANTA ANITA DERBY ALUM TO WIN:
success on the first Saturday in May. Truth is, we can spout conflicting historical
Authentic (2020)
trends all night. In handicapping the Derby, maybe it’s best to ignore antiquated
“rules” and simply concentrate on the present. JEFF RUBY ALUM TO WIN:
Animal Kingdom (2011)
MAIN CONTENDERS: ESSENTIAL QUALITY is undefeated, but so is ROCK YOUR
WOOD MEMORIAL ALUM TO WIN:
WORLD. Based strictly on speed figures, the California-based colt, even with just
Funny Cide (2003)
three career starts, is the faster of the unbeatens. ROCK YOUR WORLD may be
better-suited for the Derby’s classic 10-furlong distance, and probably has a higher JOCKEY TO WIN BACK-TO-BACK:
ceiling. The John Sadler-trained colt originally was thought to be better on grass Victor Espinoza (2014 California Chrome,
than dirt, but even if his Santa Anita Derby win proved he could adapt to the main 2015 American Pharoah)
track, skeptics will point out that the Candy Ride colt has yet to experience kickback.
TRAINER TO WIN BACK-TO-BACK:
What happens, they ask, if he draws an inside post and doesn’t break sharply? These
Bob Baffert (1997 Silver Charm,
are legitimate concerns. But the Derby is usually won by the best horse. ROCK YOUR
1998 Real Quiet)
WORLD is the best horse. Not a month ago. Now.
JOCKEY TO WIN DERBY DEBUT:
VALUE PLAYS: If ROCK YOUR WORLD leaves at around 6-1 odds, that’s value. Mario Gutierrez (2012 I’ll Have Another)
Others that have credentials to at least hit the board include recent prep winners
TRAINER TO WIN DERBY DEBUT:
KNOWN AGENDA, HOT ROD CHARLIE and, yes, even undefeated HELIUM, an out-
Art Sherman (2014 California Chrome)
of-sight, out-of-mind colt who may be better than given credit for.
JOCKEY TO WIN OAKS &
$100 WAGERING STRATEGY: DERBY SAME YEAR:
• $52 Win: ROCK YOUR WORLD ($52) Calvin Borel (2009 Rachel Alexandra
• $2 Exacta Box: ROCK YOUR WORLD, ESSENTIAL QUALITY, KNOWN AGENDA, and Mine That Bird)
HOT ROD CHARLIE ($24)
TRAINER TO WIN OAKS &
• $2 Exacta Box: ROCK YOUR WORLD, ESSENTIAL QUALITY, KNOWN AGENDA,
DERBY SAME YEAR:
HELIUM ($24) Ben Jones (1952 with Real Delight & Hill Gail)
TOP 4 PICKS
1. ROCK YOUR WORLD 3. KNOWN AGENDA
2. ESSENTIAL QUALITY 4. HOT ROD CHARLIE
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KENTUCKY DERBY
EXPERT PICKS
We tasked our expert racing analysts across the 1/ST family to provide their selections for this year’s first jewel in the
Triple Crown. Check back in our updated Kentucky Derby Wager Guide on April 29 for final selections.
JEFF JOHN MICHELLE NAOMI
SIEGEL DESANTIS YU TUKKER
@jsiegelracing @XBJohnnyD @themichelleyu @NaomiTukker
ROCK YOUR WORLD ESSENTIAL QUALITY ESSENTIAL QUALITY HOT ROD CHARLIE
ESSENTIAL QUALITY HIGHLY MOTIVATED ROCK YOUR WORLD ESSENTIAL QUALITY
KNOWN AGENDA ROCK YOUR WORLD KNOWN AGENDA ROCK YOUR WORLD
HOT ROD CHARLIE DYNAMIC ONE MEDINA SPIRIT KNOWN AGENDA
JEREMY TOM MILLIE RON
PLONK QUIGLEY BALL NICOLETTI
@Horseplayernow @quigleys_corner @camillayakteen @RONIC17
KNOWN AGENDA HELIUM KNOWN AGENDA ROCK YOUR WORLD
HIGHLY MOTIVATED MEDINA SPIRIT ESSENTIAL QUALITY KNOWN AGENDA
ESSENTIAL QUALITY HOT ROD CHARLIE HOT ROD CHARLIE ESSENTIAL QUALITY
DYNAMIC ONE ROCK YOUR WORLD ROCK YOUR WORLD SOUP AND SANDWICH
CLAUDIA MATT ZOE JON
SPADARO DINERMAN CADMAN WHITE
@claudiaspadaro @3coltshandicap @zoecadman @PostTimeJon
ESSENTIAL QUALITY HOT ROD CHARLIE DYNAMIC ONE ESSENTIAL QUALITY
KNOWN AGENDA ESSENTIAL QUALITY HOT ROD CHARLIE ROCK YOUR WORLD
ROCK YOUR WORLD SUPER STOCK SUPER STOCK KNOWN AGENDA
HIGHLY MOTIVATED ROCK YOUR WORLD SOUP AND SANDWICH HOT ROD CHARLIE
PETER DUSTIN GEORGE EDDIE
LURIE FABIAN ORTUZAR OLCZYK
@Peterlurievo @1STBET @georgeortuzar @1STBET
KNOWN AGENDA ROCK YOUR WORLD HOT ROD CHARLIE EDZO’S PICKS WILL
ESSENTIAL QUALITY ESSENTIAL QUALITY ROCK YOUR WORLD APPEAR IN APRIL 29
HOT ROD CHARLIE HIGHLY MOTIVATED ESSENTIAL QUALITY UPDATED GUIDE.
MANDALOUN HOT ROD CHARLIE MEDINA SPIRIT
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XBTV KENTUCKY DERBY
WORKOUT ANALYSIS
By Zoe Cadman, Millie Ball & Michelle Yu
The Kentucky Derby is such a unique race, and yet the formula for eyeing the winner based on morning workouts remains the
same, according to XBTV analyst Millie Ball: Good energy + fluid stride + focused demeanor.
HORSE DATE TRACK DISTANCE TIME
ESSENTIAL QUALITY 4/17 CD 5F :59.60 (4/40)
ZOE CADMAN: Undefeated son of Tapit has certainly been on a good run of late. His race at
Keeneland was a measured one while not taking too much out of him just four weeks before the
Derby. He does own a win over the CD strip, which is key, but ... I have to say I thought his first work
after the Blue Grass, while not bad, was not the best we have seen from him. Tracking the 2-for-8
gelding Spa City (most recently last in an allowance race at Oaklawn), he looked primed to run right
by him at the wire, but really never got by him even in the gallop-out. I would have liked to have seen
more in the penultimate work for a champion with only two starts under his belt this year.
ROCK YOUR WORLD 4/17 SA 5 F 59.60 (6/72)
MICHELLE YU: Rock Your World worked outside of company April 17 as is his normal routine. He
was always in the bridle and much the best. This was improvement this week for a horse who
sometimes needs a real sousing to find his best stride in the mornings.
KNOWN AGENDA 4/16 CD 5F 1:00.40 (9/36)
SAINTHOOD 4/16 CD 5F 1:00.40 (9/36)
MILLIE BALL: Todd Pletcher appears to be replicating the training schedule he used for 2017
Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming for his most recent Florida Derby
winner Known Agenda. He and Jeff Ruby runner-up Sainthood both returned to the track to
publish a work 13 days after their final prep and were then given a stiff 5-furlong drill together
seven days later on April 16. If Pletcher continues to mirror Always Dreaming’s timetable, expect
a 5F work from both contenders April 23, which will be eight days prior to the race. One change
Todd has made this year is choosing to ship his runners to Churchill Downs a week earlier than
normal to post their penultimate works. He said he paired up Known Agenda up with Sainthood,
“because of the spacing of their last race.” Known Agenda appeared to travel smoother of the
two colts, never blobbing once. Both finished on even terms although jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. did tap
Known Agenda on the neck a couple of times to keep him on task. Interestingly, the published
time 1:00.40 was a 5-furlong personal best for both sophomores since arriving in training.
Evidently they are continuing to progress. My preference is Known Agenda. I mentioned prior
to the Florida Derby that stamina is his strength. He has an extremely efficient way of moving,
coupled with a pedigree for distance, and the blinkers have made him more tactical,
all ingredients for Kentucky Derby success.
HOT ROD CHARLIE 4/17 SA 6F 1:14.20 (5/6)
ZOE CADMAN: The son of Oxbow may be flying under the radar, even after winning the Louisiana
Derby. Losing his jock Joel Rosario won’t help, but will add to his price. Working in company with
4-year-old claimer Itsthattime (recently second for $20k), he tracked him all the way to the
eighth-pole under Flavien Prat and cruised by him to gallop out a good mile. Nothing flashy, but
his long, easy stride should not be a problem at Churchill Downs. Good work for a colt coming
right at just the right time.
1/ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 12XBTV KENTUCKY DERBY
WORKOUT ANALYSIS
By Zoe Cadman, Milie Ball & Michelle Yu
HORSE DATE TRACK DISTANCE TIME
MEDINA SPIRIT 4/17 SA 5F 1:00.00 (4/43)
ZOE CADMAN: Working in company with Paint Me Lucky (an 0-6 maiden), this was his first work
back since running second in the Santa Anita Derby. The son of Protonico looked good tracking
his company and drawing off down the lane with a bit of niggling; a solid work from a colt who
leaves his heart on the track every time. Not sure the pace scenario or the distance will help this
hard-trying colt, especially with several hard races of late.
HIGHLY MOTIVATED 4/18 KEE 4F :47.20 (1/27)
MICHELLE YU: In his normal spot inside a workmate, he was aggressive with his ears pinned, but
always in hand. Highly Motivated looked super-fit and intense for the entirety.
MIDNIGHT BOURBON 4/19 CD 5F :59.80 (1/13)
MILLIE BALL: The video posted on social media of Midnight Bourbon getting loose on the
backside April 19 (here) deserved more attention than his bullet work posted earlier that morning.
It came across as rather a poorly matched, erratic team drill. Midnight Bourbon’s workmate left
the pole a length in front and no sooner had his company begun to track in behind, the lead
horse tapped on the brakes, at a crucial point, causing the whole tempo of the work to change.
The Louisiana Derby runner-up got aggressive when asked to slow in order to remain in tandem,
and it was all his rider could do to hold him until the stretch. It was hard to tell if horse or rider
gave up the ghost, but Midnight Bourbon found his stride in the last two furlongs and, despite the
expended energy, put in a decent gallop-out.
MANDALOUN 4/17 CD 6F 1:11.40 (1/3)
MILLIE BALL: Mandaloun’s 6-furlong breeze April 17 flashed me back to the morning of August
23, 2020 when Thousand Words worked at Del Mar, 13 days prior to his intended run in the
Kentucky Derby. Both 3-year-olds were equally aggressive leaving the pole with company, both
riders had to lean hard against their mouths for 3 furlongs before they conceded and settled
for the remainder of the work. And in both instances, it took its toll on the gallop-out with each
colt needing taps from their riders to stay the course. Thousand Words’ eagerness on the Triple
Crown trail was his demise, and I fear the same for Mandaloun.
LIKE THE KING 4/17 KEE 6F 1:12.80 (1/3)
MICHELLE YU: Working with classy company (Canadian sprint champ Artie’s Princess), he was
ultra-aggressive in a come-from-behind move, dragging Drayden Van Dyke even and to the front.
He geared way down and the mate was asked to keep up. Not a perfect work, but done
with something left.
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WORKOUT ANALYSIS
By Zoe Cadman, Milie Ball & Michelle Yu
HORSE DATE TRACK DISTANCE TIME
SOUP AND SANDWICH 4/17 CD 5F :59.80 (7/40)
MILLIE BALL: Soup and Sandwich worked professionally in his 5-furlong drill April 17 at Churchill.
He made up ground on his target, and passed the workmate comfortably while keeping to his
correct lead changes throughout the work, something I was keen to see after his runner-up
performance in the Florida Derby, where he ran the entire length of the stretch on his left lead,
barring the last 5 strides. Given a long rein by the rider from start to finish in this work, the colt
appears a very tactical ride and seemed obliging when asked to gallop-out all the way around to
the backside. I liked the energy he was able to sustain.
HELIUM 4/16 CD 5F (GATE) 1:01.80 (28/36)
ZOE CADMAN: Unraced since winning the Tampa Bay Derby March 6 with an 84 Beyer, trainer
Mark Casse opted to work this son of Ironicus out of the gate April 16. That’s a good move, as this
always adds to fitness and gets their minds on running. Nothing wrong with the work or his action
over the CD strip (his second move since coming from Florida). The only question really is, “Is
he good enough?” Would have to see something amazing in his next work to make him a major
contender. But, hey, it’s the Derby and anything can happen.
WRITE YOUR NOTES HERE:
Video provided by XBTV, the home of the latest workouts, analysis and more this Triple Crown
Season and every other race day of the year. Additional video courtesy Kentucky Derby & Keeneland.
1/ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 14KENTUCKY DERBY
NEED-TO-KNOW
RACE DATE: SATURDAY, MAY 1
ENTRIES/POST POSITION DRAW: TUESDAY, APRIL 27
FIRST RACE POST TIME: 10:30 A.M. ET
KENTUCKY DERBY POST TIME: 6:57 P.M. ET
WATCH FREE AND WAGER: ALL RACES ON 1/ST BET APP & XPRESSBET.COM
TELEVISION: NBCSN, 12:30-2:30 PM ET // NBC, 2:30-7:30 PM ET
WAGERING NOTES: OAKS-DERBY DAILY DOUBLE & TWO-DAY PICK 6 (FRI/SAT)
DERBY DAY STAKES LINEUP
Grade 1 Kentucky Derby $3,000,000 3YO 1-1/4 miles
Grade 1 Turf Classic $1,000,000 4&UP 1-1/8 miles (turf)
Grade 1 Derby City Distaff $500,000 4&UP FM 7 furlongs
Grade 1 Churchill Downs $500,000 4&UP 7 furlongs
Grade 2 Pat Day Mile $500,000 3YO 1 mile
Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile $500,000 4&UP FM 1 mile (turf)
Grade 2 American Turf $500,000 3YO 1-1/16 miles (turf)
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