CYPRUS REAL ESTATE MARKET - FIRST HALF IN REVIEW | H1 2020 NOVEMBER 2020 - PWC CYPRUS
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Contents 1 Foreword 3 2 H1 2020 – The Key Highlights 4 3 Redefining the Real Estate Market: The Day After 6 4 Cyprus Economy update 10 5 Transaction Volumes / Investment Activity levels 20 6 Sale Contracts statistics 26 7 Foreign transaction activity 28 8 High-end residential property segment (≥€1,5mln) 30 9 Construction Activity 36 10 PwC Real Estate Advisory Services 42 11 PwC in Cyprus 43 2 PwC Cyprus
Foreword We are determined to stand by you during these very challenging times. At PwC, we have a diverse team of professionals with backgrounds ranging from engineers, management consultants, property valuers, planning experts, data analysts, finance experts, and merger and acquisition specialists. Combined with our strong international network, we are able to offer solutions in support of our clients’ needs, assisting in the transformation of the sector and helping so that the real estate industry and, in turn, the economy can go back to their normal operating rhythm. We are delighted to present our latest PwC Cyprus Real Estate Market publication. This publication, which comes in an Evgenios C Evgeniou unprecedented period for Cyprus and the global economy, as CEO a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, provides insights about PwC Cyprus the behaviour of the Cyprus economy in general following the spread of the virus, and presents key real estate market developments, focusing on the performance of the sector during the 1st half of 2020 (H1 2020). In addition to the adverse effect of the pandemic on the real estate market, the suspension of the Cyprus Investment Programme (“CIP”), effective from 1 November 2020, is presenting a new challenge for the market and the industry in general. The developments have prompted an urgency to pursue a much needed sector reform and for the market participants to set new priorities and strategies. Recognising that going back to the old-normal is not a viable option, in this publication we present some thoughts / recommendations as regards possible transformational changes and provide options as regards new strategies and priorities. Cyprus Real Estate Market 3
2 H1 2020 - The Key Highlights Real GDP % Cyprus exhibited strong economic growth for the fifth year in a row in 2019 (3,2%). However, following the global outbreak of COVID-19, real GDP is expected to IMF Forecasts contract by 6,4% by the end of 2020 and assuming a gradual recovery materialises in the coming months, the economy is projected to turnaround in 2021. (6,4%) - 2020(F) Despite the expectation for sharp increases in unemployment rates, Cyprus Unemployment unemployment remained relatively stable until H1 2020 (7,4% by June 2020), mainly attributed to the introduction of Government policy measures to safeguard 8,0% - Sep 2020 jobs. Unemployment rate reached 8,0% by September 2020 and, according to IMF forecasts, it will remain stable until the end of 2020 (EU average: 8,9%). In April 2020, the Cyprus Government issued a 30-Year and 7-Year bond, raising a total of €1,75bn (total bids €2,6bn), proving that despite uncertainty, international markets continued to place confidence on the Cypriot economy. Since 2018, key international In April 2020, Cyprus credit rating agencies (with the exception of Moody’s) maintained Cyprus’ sovereign Government raised €1,75bn rating to investment grade, although Fitch changed the outlook of Cyprus from positive to stable in April 2020. through issue of new bonds % Lending market Drop in new mortgage loan facilities largely relates to the impact of the New mortgages decrease by COVID-19 pandemic and more specifically the lockdown and restriction measures (18%) during H1 2020 and which were in place from March to May 2020. A 4-year subsidy of interest rates (up to 1,5%) for new housing loans (up to €300.000) was introduced by the Cyprus introduction of interest rate Government in order to boost demand for new mortgages. subsidy 4% The sector’s contribution to the Cyprus economy continues to grow (4% during 12 Growth in the GVA contribution of months to 30 June 2020), highlighting the importance of the sector in the overall economy. The latest developments as regards the CIP suspension and the disruptive the Real Estate & Construction nature of the pandemic, imply a broader economic uncertainty in the short to medium sector (12M to 30 June 2020) term. 4 PwC Cyprus
€1,2bn transaction value Transactions of 69% of transaction value (55% drop compared to high-end residential relates to residential H1 2019) properties (≥€1,5mln) properties plummeted by 78% during H1 2020 • Mainly attributed to the unusually • The value of transactions for high influx of transactions from apartments and houses reached foreigners during Jan-May 2019 €828mln during H1 2020 (3.500 • Perhaps the most badly hit and the adverse effects from the units transacted) segment during H1 2020 spread of the pandemic in 2020, which exacerbated the prevailing • Land transactions reached • 51 high-end residential reduced levels of activity €257mln, mainly comprising land properties acquired recording a within residential planning zones 78% drop compared to H1 2019 • Pre-Lockdown months (55% of total land value) (Jan-Feb): Activity levels in terms • Given that the high-end of transaction volume were residential property segment similar to the respective months is almost directly linked to the of 2019, while transaction value 44% drop in CIP, its suspension creates dropped by c.21% foreign transaction uncertainty with regards to the future of this segment and activity • Lockdown months highlights the need to re-focus (Mar-May): Physical and and transform the real estate travelling restrictions to execute market • Even before the pandemic, transactions almost entirely transactions appeared reduced wiped out any new transaction compared to the first months of executions from foreigners 2019 35% drop in value of • During lockdown, the inability of new building permits foreign buyers to travel to Cyprus issued Double digit drops exacerbated the prevailing in transaction value reduced levels of activity across all districts • Number of building permits dropped by 7% during H1 2020 • Coastal districts of Limassol and (-35% in value terms) Paphos (predominantly driven by foreign demand), decreased • The drop observed may be by 65% and 61% respectively attributed to the lockdown compared to H1 2019 measures, which inevitably affected the private and public • Nicosia (predominantly driven sector procedures required to by local demand), experienced issue permits the lowest hit (31% drop) • Largest concentration of new • Limassol continues to absorb permits relate to Nicosia (33%), the majority of transactions closely followed by Limassol (33% of total transaction value) Cyprus Real Estate Market 5
3 Redefining the Real Estate Market: The Day After The COVID-19 pandemic, and the disruption it has brought to the economy, as well as the suspension of the CIP, prompted an urgency to pursue a more radical transformation of the sector, and for the industry participants to revisit their strategies and priorities. It is inevitable that there is a need to consider differentiated concepts and products that are sustainable and fit for the future. This section briefly outlines various recommendations which could be considered in assisting this transformation and re-focus of the market, recognising that given the prevailing conditions and developments, going back to the old- normal is not a viable option. Follow the demographics: Housing for the elderly According to the latest Eurostat data, Cyprus demonstrates one of the lowest fertility rates across the EU and a relatively high life expectancy (82,9 years on average). As a consequence, based on the latest EU forecasts, by 2070, one in three Cypriot residents is expected to be 65+ years old, while at the same time by 2070, 10% of the country’s population is expected to be >80 years old. Demographic shifts are expected to shape the housing market and pose enormous challenges to the country’s healthcare system in the years to come. A significant portion of the elderly population ends up living alone or in couples in their three/four-bedroom family homes where they have raised their families. These houses tend to be large in size (47% larger compared to the EU average), difficult to maintain and do not have the amenities to support their daily needs. The ageing demographics of Cyprus pose the need to develop housing products which are tailored to the needs of the elderly. The adoption of planning incentives to encourage the development of specialised Elderly Housing and Assisted Living communities and the introduction of tax incentives to attract specialised operators are expected to induce private sector initiatives in this direction. At the same time, such investments could lead to potential savings in the public healthcare system and could even create opportunities for cross-service investments such as rehabilitation centres and medical tourism projects. 6 PwC Cyprus
Focus on concepts with economic multiplier effect: Composite real estate projects Composite real estate projects have a multiplier positive impact on the economy and can support sustainable growth. Therefore, incentives should be provided for the development of composite projects, in line with the demographic and other demand factors, that have a multiplier impact on the economy. Such projects could include among others, affordable living, education and student housing etc. These projects should include, in addition to the real estate component, other uses and facilities such as retail space, health centres, recreation areas etc which will help other sectors of the economy, having in this way a multiplier positive impact on employment and the economy at large. Incentives for such projects could take the form of additional building density, tax incentives both for the investors and the buyers/users, relaxations etc. Projects that fall in this category should also have a priority in terms of licencing given the multiplier effect that these projects could have on employment and the economy. Finally, similar incentives should also be provided for projects that are friendly to the environment and promote the sustainable development of the country. Incentivise Adaptive Reuse of Buildings / Repurposing of old buildings Our city centres are crowded with buildings which are commercially and occupationally obsolete. At the same time, there is increasing demand for space, resulting in an urban sprawl. Developing our cities inwards is a strategy that would allow town centres to remain vibrant without the need of additional infrastructure and further significant investments. This can be achieved by repurposing existing buildings away from uses now seen as increasingly obsolete and therefore less profitable, towards real estate that fits the way people use buildings today. The trend towards repurposing existing buildings has been a key topic of the latest PwC Surveys (Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe) with major institutional investors citing that repurposing of assets has become not only viable but a highly sought-after option for many investors. In particular, on the basis of the PwC Survey findings, over the coming 5 years, repurposing assets from one sector to another is on the agenda for nearly 75% of institutional investors across Europe. It is also expected that in the prevailing volatile market, it will be critical for investors going forward, to ensure that the assets they invest in, can be repositioned and repurposed. Government schemes could be considered that would incentivise the repurposing of existing buildings, to address the ever changing needs of occupiers and rejuvenate city centres. Cyprus Real Estate Market 7
Affordable housing Housing affordability has been an evolving issue over the years, and it is expected that it will deteriorate if it is not tackled effectively. The need for greater investment in social infrastructure, such as affordable housing, across Europe, was highlighted in the latest PwC Survey (Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe 2021), with the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbating this issue further. Based on Cyprus published statistics, c.70% of the Cypriot housing stock is owner-occupied, a large proportion of which is subject to a mortgage or loan. The debt burden of such households reaches almost €3,5bn. Even though the ESTIA scheme could limit part of the problem, households defaulting against their housing loans are not declining. The introduction of an effective housing policy is considered critical. Policy measures in this framework should induce developments and housing projects for lower income tiers of the society. Such policies could be scaled to different locations across the island, tailored to their demographic characteristics. Using examples of alternative housing policies that exist in different parts of the world, such measures could include setting rents in housing schemes that are lower than average rents in the local area (i.e. capping rents as a percentage of the market rent, regulated by the local authorities), property downsizing (i.e. developing housing units which are smaller than the minimum threshold size, stipulated by the town planning regulations), rent-to-buy schemes, repurposing of vacant properties into affordable housing concepts or even relaxation of planning and development regulations. Looking at the UK case study, any new residential development is required, under Section 106, to dedicate a minimum number of units of the overall development as affordable housing units in different forms, such as affordable rented and shared ownership (i.e. co-ownership with local authorities). Sustainability in the built environment According to the European Commission, c.75% of the EU building stock is energy inefficient and in order to meet the EU climate and energy objectives, the current rates of renovations should at least double. In dealing with this issue, the EU is investing heavily in grants or loans that help push technology and best practice in the sector and also supports and finances energy efficiency projects through the European Investment Bank (EIB). In addition, to boost building renovation, the European Commission has announced its intention to launch the new ‘renovation wave’ initiative, as part of the European Green Deal with the aim to increase the rate of renovation of existing buildings by developing financing possibilities, promoting investments in buildings and pooling renovation efforts. Like all Member States, Cyprus will receive an allocation of Green Deal funding through regional development mechanisms and existing EU programmes. At the same time, increasingly more investors realise that social and environmental factors have an impact on the value of a real estate property and there is growing interest in energy efficient and sustainable buildings. In fact, the trend towards energy efficiency and the sustainability of buildings is a key topic in the latest PwC Survey (Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe 2021), whereby nearly 8 out of 10 survey respondents think that energy efficiency, carbon emissions and climate adaption will increase in importance in their portfolios in 2021, and the number is higher still over a five-year horizon. When it comes to impact investing, cutting the carbon footprint of real estate is regarded as by far the most effective measure for the industry to make a difference. In order to tackle the issue of energy inefficient buildings and enhance impact investments in Cyprus, economic and other forms of incentives, could be provided to property owners, developers, individuals and other organisations. These incentives and mandates could relate to the use of land for energy production, tax incentives on capital expenditure involving energy efficiency in building construction and renovation, solar energy generation from government building roofs or along motorways, or even a green building density incentive programme and an expedited planning permission scheme. 8 PwC Cyprus
Accelerate digitalisation and digital transformation of real estate procedures The real estate market has a lot to benefit from digitalisation initiatives. For example, currently executing a transaction of immovable property at the Land Registry is a time-consuming and cumbersome procedure. There is a high administrative burden and inefficiencies involved when dealing with the various Local Authorities and Land Registry functions, as regards settlement of municipal charges, granting of tax clearances, payment of transfer fees etc. The COVID-19 outbreak and the restrictions imposed, further highlighted the need for consolidation and digitalisation of these procedures. Digitalisation would simplify the transaction process and reduce costs for all participants. At the same time, it would also enhance transparency, making the Cyprus property market even more appealing for foreign investors. Digitalised and more efficient processes would slim down operating costs for financial institutions and servicers, reducing the burden of the management and handling of large real estate and loan portfolios. Implementation of a centralised Leasehold Registry Implementation of a centralised Leasehold Registry, through which landlords will be required to register lease agreements of privately owned residential and commercial properties in Cyprus and to update such information on an annual basis. This would complement the sound Land Registry system, providing elevated transparency not only in terms of the registered ownership of immovable property, but also in terms of the use and occupancy. Maintaining transparency is increasingly important for the real estate market, a sector which continues to attract a growing allocation of capital from foreign investors. The proposed mandatory registration process would also serve to alleviate tax evasion on rental flows, primarily in the private housing sector. CyprusCyprus Real Estate Real Estate B MarketMarket 9
4 Cyprus Economy update Contraction of the Cyprus economy during 2020, followed by an anticipated recovery in 2021 depending on the pandemic and the adverse effect on the local and global economy. +3,2% Cyprus exhibited strong GDP growth for the fifth year in a row in 2019 (3,2%) maintaining its position as 2019 Real one of the fastest growing economies in the EU. GDP % However, the global outbreak of COVID-19 has completely changed the picture, with the Cyprus economy heading into a profound recession in 2020. The adoption of travel restrictions, lockdown (6,4%) measures and the interruption of all non-essential businesses since mid-March 2020, had a major impact on the Cypriot economy. According to latest IMF forecasts, real GDP is expected to contract by -6,4% by the end of 2020 (compared to -7,6% being the forecasted EU average). Even though the speed and rate of the economy recovery remains highly uncertain,assuming a gradual recovery materialises in the coming months, the economy is projected to turnaround in 2021, with IMF 2020 (F) estimates indicating a recovery. Real GDP % Cyprus Vs European Union Real GDP (% change) 8% 6,7% IMF 6% 4,4% 4,1% Forecast 3,4% 3,2% 4% 2,1% 1,9% 1,7% 3,0% 2% 2,0% 0,4% 2,5% 2,3% 0,0% 2,1% 1,7% 0% (0,7%) (1,9%) -2% (3,4%) -4% (6,4%) -6% (6,6%) -8% (7,6%) -10% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020(F) European Union Cyprus *Note: The 2020 real GDP % forecast represents the latest available IMF estimates Source: IMF (World Economic World Outlook Database – October 2020) 10 PwC Cyprus
2019 (Actual) GDP % (constant prices) 2020 (Forecast) GDP % (constant prices) Ireland 5,9 Lithuania (1,8) Estonia 5,0 Ireland (3,0) Hungary 4,9 Poland (3,6) Malta 4,9 Finland (4,0) Poland 4,1 Bulgaria (4,0) Romania 4,1 Denmark (4,5) Lithuania 3,9 Sweden (4,7) Bulgaria 3,4 Romania (4,8) Cyprus 3,2 Estonia (5,2) Croatia 2,9 Netherlands (5,4) Slovenia 2,4 Luxembourg (5,8) Slovak Republic 2,4 Germany (6,0) Denmark 2,3 Latvia (6,0) Czech Republic 2,3 Hungary (6,1) Luxemburg 2,3 Cyprus (6,4) Latvia 2,2 Czech Republic (6,5) Portugal 2,2 Slovenia (6,7) Spain 2,0 Austria (6,7) Greece 1,9 Slovak Republic (7,1) European Union (27) 1,7 European Union (27) (7,6) Netherlands 1,7 Malta (7,9) Austria 1,6 Belgium (8,3) France 1,5 Croatia (9,0) United Kingdom 1,5 Greece (9,5) Belgium 1,4 France (9,8) Sweden 1,3 United Kingdom (9,8) Finland 1,1 Portugal (10,0) Germany 0,6 Italy (10,6) Italy 0,3 Spain (12,8) Source: IMF (World Economic World Outlook Database – October 2020) Cyprus Real Estate Market 11
Unemployment Despite the expectation for sharp increases in unemployment rates as a result of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, Cyprus unemployment remained relatively stable until H1 2020 (7,4% by June 2020). This was mainly attributed to the introduction of Government policy measures which aimed to safeguard jobs, mitigate unemployment hikes and protect the most vulnerable groups of society. The real effects of the recession became more evident by September 2020 with the unemployment rate reaching 8,0% (which is still below the forecasted Euro Area average of 8,3%). Depending on the spread of the pandemic, there is uncertainty regarding the unemployment rate from 2021 onwards. Unemployment rate in Cyprus (2010 - September 2020) Unemployment rate in Cyprus (2010 - September 2020) 18% 2014 - September 2020 drop: 810bps IMF Forecast 15,9% 16,1% 16% 8,9% 15,0% 14% 13,0% 8,0% 11,9% 12% 11,1% 10% 8,4% 7,9% 8,0% 8% 7,1% 6,3% 8,0% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Sept-20* 2020 Cyprus Euro Area** Source: IMF (World Economic World Outlook Database – October 2020), Monthly data September 2020: Eurostat *The September rate represents the seasonally adjusted rate, estimated by Eurostat ** Euro Area relates to the 19 countries using the Euro as they national currency 12 PwC Cyprus
Cyprus Real Estate Market 13
Cyprus’ sovereign rating Since 2018, key international credit rating agencies (with the exception of Moody’s) maintained Cyprus’ sovereign rating to investment grade. Although Moody’s was the only rating agency that maintained a below investment grade rating for the country (Ba2), in September 2019, it changed the outlook of Cyprus’ rating from stable to positive. On 3 April 2020, following the COVID-19 outbreak, Fitch changed the outlook from positive to stable in order to account for the effects of the pandemic, but maintained the country’s investment grade on the expectation of a relatively strong economic recovery in 2021. In September 2020, S&P affirmed Cyprus’ rating of BBB- with a stable outlook, despite the fact that the economy is in the midst of the pandemic’s negative effects. 03.04.2020 Source: Trading Economics, PwC Research 14 PwC Cyprus
Cyprus Government bonds Yields of 10-Year Government bonds (which were priced at 4,03% at issued date, October 2015) have fallen to 0,25% by the end of 2019 (with c. 6 years remaining to the expiration of the bond). During the first months of 2020, Cypriot sovereign bond yields remained stable before they started experiencing some volatility in early spring, in line with other European bonds, demonstrating early signs of the pandemic. In April 2020, the Government of Cyprus issued a 30-Year and a 7-Year bond, raising a total of €1,75bn (€0,5bn and €1,25bn respectively), to cover financing needs created by the fiscal impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Total bids for the aforementioned bonds reached €2,6bn proving that despite the prevailing uncertainty, international markets continued to place confidence on the Cypriot economy. By the end of April 2020, sovereign bond yields peaked with yields of 10 and 15-year bonds reaching c.2,1% and c.2,3% Cyprus Government Bond Yields Cyprus Government Bond(%) (2018-2019) Yields (%) (2018-2019) respectively. Following the announcement of the European Central Bank intervention (18 March 2020) regarding the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme, yields eased during the following months, reaching c.0,9% and c.1,2% for the 10 and 15-year bonds respectively, by June 2020. Cyprus Government Bond Yields (%) (2015 - June 2020) 4,5% 4,5% 4,0% 4,0% 3,5% 3,5% 3,0% 3,0% 2,5% 2,5% 2,0% 2,0% 1,5% 1,5% 1,0% 1,0% 0,5% 0,5% 0,0% 0,0% 10-Year Government 10-Year Government Bond Bond (issued Oct(issued 2015) Oct 2015) 10-Year Government 10-Year Government Bond Bond (issued (issued Sep 2018)Sep 2018) 15-Year Government 15-Year Government Bond Bond (issued Feb(issued 2019) Feb 2019) 30-Year Government 30-Year Government Bond Bond (issued (issued May 2019)May 2019) 7-Year Government 7-Year Government Bond Bond (issued (issued April 2020)April 2020) Cyprus Government Bond Yields of new bonds issued during 2020 (%) Mid-yield (%) as 3,0% Bond at 30 June 2020 2,5% 20-Year Government Bond 1,371% 2,0% (issued January 2020) 1,5% 10-Year Government Bond (issued January 2020) 0,915% 1,0% 0,5% 30-Year Government Bond (issued April 2020) 1,750% 0,0% 30/01/2020 29/02/2020 31/03/2020 30/04/2020 31/05/2020 30/06/2020 7-Year Government Bond 20-Year Government Bond (issued Jan 2020) 10-Year Government Bond (issued Jan 2020) 0,690% (issued April 2020) 30-Year Government Bond (issued April 2020) 7-Year Government Bond (issued April 2020) Source: Bloomberg Cyprus Real Estate Market 15
Key drivers of the housing market: Household disposable income, mortgage interest rates and access to financing Increased employment combined with Household disposable Household disposableincome income& & mortgage interest mortgage ratesrates interest a low inflation environment during the past years, led to an increase in the real disposable income of households 4,99% 5,05% 5,16% 5,15% 4,73% in 2019 (9,7% increase). Although data €20,2 on real disposable income has not been €19,6 €19,4 3,71% made available for 2020, according to €19,3 €18,9 3,36% the European Commission report (dated 3,16% €18,4 2,87% Spring 2020), private consumption is 2,39% expected to decline by more than the 2,17% GDP anticipated contraction (i.e. -6,4%) €17,6 2,17% €17,2 with the shock cushioned somewhat €16,9 €16,9 -ve outlook outlook by the support by the Government to households and, to a smaller extent, by the expected increase in domestic -ve tourism. At the same time, interest rates on housing loans continue to decline. By 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 H1 30 June 2020, mortgage interest rates 2020 Mean equivalised disposable income (€'000s) Mortgage interest rates dropped to 2,17% (recording a c.22 bps drop compared to 31 December 2019). Source: Central Bank of Cyprus and Cystat Note 1: The equivalised disposable income is the total disposable income of a household, divided by its respective equivalised size Note 2: The mortgage interest rates correspond to the average rates of greater than 5 years in terms of housing loans 16 PwC Cyprus
Lending Market New mortgage loan facilities experienced a drop to €395mln during H1 2020, compared to €481mln during H1 2019 (c.17,9% drop) demonstrating that flows of additional credit for housing purchases remain low. This drop largely relates to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and more specifically the lockdown and restriction measures which were in place from March to May 2020. In the short to medium term, banks are keen on granting new loans to viable borrowers; however, it is expected that they will remain extra cautious given the uncertainty around the medium-term repayment capabilities resulting from reduced revenues and net worth. At the same time, the 4-year subsidy of interest rates (up to 1,5%) for new housing loans (up to €300.000) was introduced by the Cyprus Government, in order to boost demand for new mortgages. New mortgage loan facilities (€/mln) 18% New mortgage loan facilities (€/mln) H1 2020 Vs H1 2019 New mortgage loan facilities (€/mln) €3.500 €481 €3.500 €395 €3.000 €3.000 €2.500 €2.500 €2.000 H1 2019 H1 2020 €2.000 €1.500 €1.500 €1.000 €1.000 €500 €500 €0 €0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 H1 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 H12020 2020 Source: Central Bank of Cyprus Cyprus Real Estate Market 17
Real Estate - One of the main pillars of the Cyprus economy Gross Value Added (GVA) contribution by sector (12 month period to 30 June 2020) Gross Value Added (GVA) contribution by sector (12 month The Real Estate and Construction sector period to 30 June 2020) traditionally constitutes one of the key pillars Public admin, of the Cyprus economy. The Real Estate and defence, education & Construction sector constituted 17% of the Other sectors healthcare 20% 21% country’s GVA during the 12 month period to 30 June 2020. Real estate & construction 17% Tourism, trade & transport 24% Until the first half of 2019, the Real Estate Financial, and Construction sector experienced a rapid Source: Cystat professional & administrative growth, reaching 11% growth in GVA during services 19% the 12 months to 30 June 2019. Although this growth decelerated amid the pandemic, the % Growth in GVA of key sectors for the 12 month period to 30 June sector’s contribution to GVA experienced a 2020 6% 4% growth during 12 months to 30 June 2020 4% 3% and remained the fastest growing sector, 4% highlighting the importance of the sector in the overall economy. Taking into consideration 2% the latest developments as regards the CIP (0% ) suspension and the disruptive nature of 0% the pandemic, there is broader economic uncertainty in the short term. -2% -4% -6% (7% ) -8% -10% Real estate & Public admin, Financial, Tourism, trade & construction defence, professional & transport education & administrative healthcare services Source: Cystat 18 PwC Cyprus
Cyprus Real Estate Market B
5 Transaction Volumes / Investment Activity levels H1 2019 H1 2020 % increase / decrease No. of properties transacted 8.800 5,600 (36%) Cyprus Real Estate Transaction value (€bn) 2,7 1,2 (55%) sector at a glance The growth in real estate transaction activity observed over the past years was reversed in the first half of 2020. The total volume and value of properties transacted in Cyprus through the DLS (both in terms of contracts of sale and sale transfers) recorded a significant drop during H1 2020 compared to H1 2019, mainly attributed to the following: 1. During January to May 2019, the market experienced an influx of transactions from foreign buyers mainly arising from the anticipation of the revisions in the CIP investment criteria (which were effected from June 2019 onwards). 2. The spread of the pandemic, which resulted in businesses and individuals deferring significant investments in the face of physical restrictions and increased economic uncertainty, exacerbating the prevailing reduced levels of activity, observed in H1 2020. Specifically, the total number of properties transacted during H1 2020 reached 5.600, compared to 8.800 in H1 2019, representing a 36% decrease. In transaction value terms, an even sharper drop was observed, with total transactions reaching €1,2bn during H1 2020, indicating a drop of 55% (H1 2019: €2,7bn). No. of properties transacted 5,0 17.100 18.000 15.500 15.800 4,5 16.000 €bn value of properties transacted € 4,4bn 4,0 € 4,5bn € 4,2bn 14.000 3,5 12.000 12.000 3,0 € 3,4bn 10.000 2,5 8.100 7.100 8.000 2,0 5.900 5.600 H1 2019 € 1,9bn 6.000 1,5 € 1,7bn € 1,2bn 1,0 4.000 € 1,1bn 2020 H1 0,5 2.000 0,0 - 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 H1 2020 Transaction value (€bn) No. of properties transacted Source: The transaction activity analysis was based on data from the Department of Lands and Surveys (DLS) relating to contracts of sales and sale transfers, extracted on 2/10/2020. Any differences with previous publications relate to amended Land Registry records and discrepancies between the date of agreement and respective filing date. Note: The above figures do not include: (i) Debt for Asset Swap transactions (DFAS), (ii) transaction of real estate through the sale of company shares or fund units (Share Deals) and (iii) any other transactions not filed or adequately recorded at the DLS 20 PwC Cyprus
A. Pre-Lockdown B. Lockdown C. Post-Lockdown A. Pre-lockdown (Jan - Feb) Month on (January-February) (March-May) (June) Activity levels in terms of month % transaction volume were relatively growth (4%) 4% (46%) (82%) (59%) (5%) in line with the respective months 2.000 1.837 in 2019. However, in terms of 1.694 # properties transacted transaction value, a drop of c.21% 1.377 1.466 1.500 1.322 1.295 was observed. 1.192 1.140 1.232 1.000 795 756 B. Lockdown (March - May) Cyprus had a very strict lockdown 500 307 from March to May 2020, with very limited ability of people to 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June move and commute (airports were closed, people had to stay H1 2019 H1 2020 at home etc.). Apart from the physical restrictions to execute transactions, the travelling Month on restrictions imposed, almost month % entirely wiped out any new growth (21%) (22%) (58%) (87%) (75%) (16%) transaction executions from 643 700,0 foreigners. 590 €mln value of properties transacted 600,0 500,0 463 C. Post lockdown (June) 408 Activity levels in terms of 400,0 327 317 258 250 transaction volume were 300,0 193 211 relatively in line with the same 200,0 147 81 month in 2019 (5% decrease 100,0 in June 2020), while in terms of 0,0 transaction value a 16% drop was Jan Feb Mar Apr May June observed during June 2020. H1 2019 H1 2020 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June 5% 0% (5%) (10%) (15%) (20%) (25%) Throughout H1 2020, transaction (30%) (35%) value experienced a more acute (40%) (45%) drop when compared to the number (50%) (55%) of transactions, demonstrating that (60%) units transacted were on average of (65%) (70%) a lower value. (75%) (80%) (85%) (90%) Transaction value (% change) Transaction volume (% change) Source: The analysis was based on data from the Department of Lands and Surveys (DLS) relating to contracts of sales and sale transfers, extracted on 02/10/2020 Note: The above figures do not include: (i) Debt for Asset Swap transactions (DFAS), (ii) transaction of real estate through the sale of company shares or fund units (Share Deals) and (iii) any other transactions not filed or adequately recorded at the DLS Cyprus Real Estate Market 21
% Change in volume and value of properties % Change inper transacted volume and(H1 district value of properties 2019 Vs H1 2020)transacted All districts experienced double-digit drops in per district (H1 2019 Vs H1 2020) the volume and value of properties transacted 0% during H1 2020. The coastal districts of Cyprus such as Limassol and Paphos which (10%) are markets predominantly driven by the (20%) foreign segment, demonstrated a decrease (19%) in transaction value terms of 65% and 61% (30%) (26%) respectively compared to H1 2019. (31%) (31%) (40%) (36%) Nicosia district, which is a market predominantly (50%) (48%) (47%) driven by the local segment, experienced the lowest hit during H1 2020, in transaction value (60%) (56%) terms (31% drop compared to H1 2019). (70%) (61%) (65%) Nicosia Limassol Larnaca Famagusta Paphos Transaction volume (% change) Transaction value (% change) Source: Department of Lands and Surveys (DLS), PwC Analysis Transaction value (€mln) H1 2019 H1 2020 Nicosia 434 300 Limassol 1.143 401 Larnaca 280 178 Famagusta 161 71 Paphos 664 257 Total 2.681 1.206 Despite the fact that Limassol experienced the Transaction volume and value by district (H1 2020) biggest hit in terms of transaction activity, it Nicosia Limassol Larnaca Famagusta Paphos continues to absorb the majority of transactions in the sector, representing 33% of transaction value and 26% in terms of number of properties 17% 17% 21% 25% sold during H1 2020. 31% 31% 7% 6% Nicosia made up 31% of total number of transactions recorded, although in terms of value # # 6% € it comprises 25%, reflecting that on average 19% 15% 19% transactions are of a lower value compared to 33% 26% Limassol. 26% Paphos ranked third in terms of transaction value Nicosia Limassol Larnaca Famagusta Paphos during the first half of 2020, with 21% of the total Source: Department of Lands and Surveys (DLS), PwC Analysis share of the market. 22 PwC Cyprus
4% Transaction value by type 21% 25% 21% 37% During the first half of 2020, the transaction value of the residential property 6% 6% € sector reached €828mln, representing an overall decrease of 60% compared to H1 2019. In total 3.500 residential units were transacted (2.200 apartments 15% and 1.300 houses), demonstrating an overall decrease of 42%, implying that 33% 32% the units transacted were on average of a lower value compared to H1 2019. The residential property sector made up 69% of the total value of transactions in the sector during H1 2020 (apartments: 37%, houses: 32%), compared to a Apartments Houses 77% contribution during H1 2019. Commercial Land Other Source: Department of Lands and Surveys (DLS), PwC Analysis Transaction value per month (2019 - H1 2020) Average monthly Average monthly transaction value Average monthly • Following the revision of the Revision transaction value before pre-lockdown and post revision of transaction value CIP criteria (which took place in of CIP revision of CIP criteria CIP criteria of May 2019 during lockdown May 2019) and until the period Transaction value per month (2019 - H1 2020) criteria of lockdown (March 2020), the Transaction value per month (2019 - H1 2020)€285mln €486mln €140mln average monthly transaction 700 700 value amounted to €285mln, representing a 41% decrease 600 compared to the 2019 period 600 preceding the revision of CIP criteria. 500 500 • During lockdown months (March-May 2020), the Value (€/mln) 400 average transaction value was Value (€/mln) 400 significantly reduced to €140mln. 300 300 • In the midst of lockdown months, April 2020 was the month with the 200 lowest transaction value records 200 across all asset classes. 100 100 - - Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Residential Commercial & Other Land Source: Department of Lands and Surveys (DLS), PwC Analysis Cyprus Real Estate Market 23
Apartments Houses H1 2019 H1 2020 % increase / H1 2019 H1 2020 % increase / decrease decrease Transaction value (€bn) €1,2bn €0,4bn (67%) Transaction value (€bn) €0,9bn €0,4bn (56%) No. of properties transacted 4.100 2.200 (46%) No. of properties transacted 2.100 1.300 (38%) Apartments sold No. of properties per price bucket transacted No. of properties Houses sold pertransacted price bucket 21 60 >1mln >1mln 4 14 29 91 500k-1mln 500k-1mln 6 45 88 286 250k-500k 250k-500k 40 165 1.969 739 0-250k 0-250k 1.052 485 - 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 - 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 H1 2019 H1 2020 H1 2019 H1 2020 Note: The In order number to avoid of transactions statistical discrepancies, included in thethe price above bucket analysis chart includes differ fromonly thesingle Note: The In order number to avoid of transactions statistical discrepancies, included in thethe price above bucket analysis chart includes differ fromonly thesingle unit transactions total transactionswith presented 100% share. in the table Accordingly, above, asthethe number chart of includes transactions only single in theunit chart unit transactions total transactionswith presented 100% share. in the table Accordingly, above, asthethe number chart of includes transactions only single in theunit chart differ from thewith transactions table 100% aboveshare as the (to avoid chart excludes statistical the discrepancies). aforementioned categories. differ from thewith transactions table 100% aboveshare as the (to avoid chart excludes statistical the discrepancies). aforementioned categories. H1 2019 H1 2020 % increase / H1 2019 H1 2020 % increase / decrease decrease Median €101k €104k 3% Median €197k €189k (4%) Average €141k €124k (12%) Average €310k €248k (20%) H1 2019 H1 2020 % increase / H1 2019 H1 2020 % increase / H1 2019 H1 2020 %decrease increase / H1 2019 H1 2020 %decrease increase / decrease decrease Median (€0-€500k) €100k €103k 3% Median (€0-€500k) €175k €170k (3%) Median (€0-€500k) €100k €103k 3% Median (€0-€500k) €175k €170k (3%) Average (€0-€500k) €116k €114k (2%) Average (€0-€500k) €194k €186k (4%) Source: Department of Lands and Surveys (DLS), PwC Analysis Source: Department of Lands and Surveys (DLS), PwC Analysis 24 PwC Cyprus
Fields Plots H1 2019 H1 2020 % increase / H1 2019 H1 2020 % increase / decrease decrease Transaction value (€bn) €0,2bn €0,1bn (32%) Transaction value (€bn) €0,2bn €0,1bn (37%) No. of properties transacted 1.200 1.200 0% No. of properties transacted 900 600 (33%) 1%1% 2% Land transactions by planning zone 3% 0,3% 0,3% 1%1% 2% 7,7% 7,7% 14% 14% 3% 6% 6% Land transactions during H1 2020 reached €257mln, corresponding to 21% of transaction # # € 47% 17% value of the sector. 17% 47% 46% 55% of the total value of land transactions 46% relate to land within residential planning 55% 55% zones, whereas 14% comprised land within agricultural planning zones. In value terms, land transactions recorded a 35% drop Agricultural Agricultural Agricultural Residential Residential Residential Residential compared to H1 2019. CommercialCommercial & Special & Special Zones Zones Industrial Agricultural Commercial & Special Zones Industrial Industrial Tourist Tourist Commercial & Special Zones Other / Non-Identified Industrial Other / Non-Identified Tourist Other / Non-Identified Tourist Other / Non-Identified Source: Department of Lands and Surveys (DLS), PwC Analysis Cyprus Real Estate Market 25
6 Sale Contracts statistics o. of contracts of sale filed at the DLS per district (2010 - H1 2020) 2.000 No. of contracts of sale filed at the DLS per district (2010 - H1 2020) No. of contracts of sale filed at the 12.000 Growth of 2,75x 0.000 DLS per district (2010 - H1 2020) 10.366 10.000 9.242 25% 8.598 8.734 8.000 24% 26% 25% 19% 24% 8.000 7.018 7.063 24% 6% 19% 24% 6.269 7% 6% 10% 19% 25% 7% 15% 6.000 10% 7% 19% 6.000 16% 24% Peak of Cypriot 4.952 25% 7% 15% 15% 10% 15% 16% 10% 24% economic crisis 4.527 6% 15% 15% 6% 14% 9% 3.767 25% 14% 9% 19% 4.000 27% 25% 19% 4.000 26% 17% 27% 34%3.272 26% 17% 7% 7% 34% 31%31% 37% 7% 7% 36% 37% 30% 30% 22% 22% 36% 22% 22% 6% 6% 18% 18% 7% 7% 26% 26% 35%35% 2.000 2.000 16%16% 17% 17% 31% 32% 32% 31% No. of 30%contracts 30% of sale26%filed at the DLS per 28%district 28% (2010 - H1 2020) 17% 19% 19% 29% 29% 26% 24% 17% 17% 12.000 24% 19% 17% 15% 15% 17% 25% 19% 17% 15% 15% 25% - - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 H1 2020 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 H1 2020 Source: Department of Lands and Surveys (DLS) Nicosia Limassol Larnaca Famagusta Paphos 10.000 Nicosia Limassol Larnaca Famagusta Paphos 25% (41%) No. of real estate contracts of sale 24% 8.000 The reduced19% transaction activity in the market (H1 2019 vs H1 2020) 24% 6% is also evident by the number of sale contracts 6.000 5.560 recorded at10% the DLS during 19% H1 2020, which 25% 7% H1 7% 202015% 6.000 reached 3.272, representing a 41% drop 24% 5.000 25% Drop 15% in no. of 16% compared to H1 2019. 10% 6% 15% sale contracts 4.000 7% 14% 9% 25% 3.272 19% filed at the DLS 4.000 27% 14% (H1 2020 Vs H1 26% 17% 34% 3.000 7% 31% 7% 22% 36% 2019) 37% 30% 22% 7% 6% 18% 26% 2.000 36% 17%35% 2.000 16% 31% 32% 29% 30% 28% 1.000 26% 19% 24% 17% 17% 19% 17% 18% 15% 25%15% - - Source: Department of Lands and 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 H1 2019 2015 2016 H1 2020 Surveys (DLS) 2017 2018 2019 H 26 PwC Cyprus Nicosia Limassol Larnaca Famagusta Paphos Nicosia Limassol Larnaca Famagusta Paphos
% Growth in no. of real estate sale contracts per district Geographical Distribution of Transactions (H1 2019 Vs H1 2020) % Growth in no. of real estate sale contracts per district According to the DLS, all Cyprus districts (H1 2019 Vs H1 2020) % experienced double-digit drops in sale growth (18%) (53%) (27%) (38%) (50%) contracts filed at the DLS during H1 2020 compared to H1 2019. Specifically, coastal 2.500 districts of Cyprus such as Limassol and 1.987 Paphos demonstrated decreases of 53% and 2.000 50% respectively. 1.416 1.500 1.013 934 1.000 830 772 713 Nicosia district, which is a market 563 predominantly driven by the local segment, 372 500 232 experienced the lowest hit on sale contracts - filed at the DLS during H1 2020 (18% drop Nicosia Limassol Larnaca Famagusta Paphos compared to H1 2019). H1 2019 H1 2020 Source: Department of Lands and Surveys (DLS), PwC Analysis Geographical distribution of real estate sale Overall, the majority of sale contracts contracts per district (H1 2020) recorded at the DLS during H1 2020 were in Limassol (29%), followed by Nicosia (25%) and Paphos (22%). 25% 7% Nicos Nicosia Famagusta Theia 17% image part with relationship ID rId8 was not found in the file. 22% Larnaca 29% Paphos Limassol Source: Department of Lands and Surveys (DLS) Cyprus Real Estate Market 27
7 Foreign Transaction Activity During H1 2020, a total of 1.391 properties in Cyprus were acquired by foreigners (in terms of sale contracts filed at the DLS), compared to 2.482 properties acquired by foreigners during H1 2019, representing a 44% YoY decrease. Looking at the monthly acquisitions of properties by foreign buyers, it is evident that even before the pandemic (January-February 2020), transactions appeared reduced compared to the respective months of 2019, and during lockdown, the decrease in foreign transactions exacerbated the prevailing reduced levels of activity. Approximately 68% of properties acquired by foreigners in H1 2020 relate to Non-EU buyers (H1 2019: 70%). In Larnaca, 79% of foreign transactions relate to non-EU buyers. The respective share of non-EU resident acquisitions in Limassol stood at 71% and in Famagusta, Paphos and Nicosia stood at 65%, 65% and 47% respectively. No. of properties acquired by foreigners based on sale contracts No. filedacquired of properties at the DLS (2018 - based by foreigners H1 2020) on sale contracts filed at the DLS (2018 - H1 2020) 5.000 +3% 4.481 4.367 4.500 700 1.999 623 2.180 4.000 600 3.500 H2 2018 H2 2019 500 3.000 429 386 2.500 400 357 368 325 337 2.482 (44%) 319 (44%) 2.000 2.187 300 212 197 1.500 196 200 1.391 1.000 124 H1 2018 H1 2019 100 500 H1 2020 - - 2018 2019 2020 January February March April May June Source: Department of Lands and Surveys (DLS), PwC Analysis 2019 2020 28 PwC Cyprus
The highest concentration of sale contracts Geographic distribution of properties acquired by filed by foreign buyers was in Paphos (38%), foreigners based on sale contracts filed (H1 2020) followed by Limassol (27%). The two coastal districts together make up two thirds of foreign transactions on the island. All Cyprus districts recorded a year on year 7% 10% decrease, between 25% - 50%, in terms of number of properties acquired by foreigners (based on sale contracts filed at the DLS). Nicos Nicosia Famagusta Theia 18% image part with relationship ID rId8 was not found in the file. Although Nicosia only made up 7% of 38% properties acquired by foreigners during Larnaca H1 2020, the capital recorded a 48% drop 27% compared to H1 2019. Limassol and Paphos Paphos follow behind with a 47% decrease each. Limassol Source: Department of Lands and Surveys (DLS), PwC Analysis YoY YoY %% change change in of in no. no. of properties properties acquired acquired by foreigners by foreigners per per district district based based on sale on sale contracts contracts filed filed (H1 (H1 2020 Vs2020 Vs H1 2019) H1 2019) % growth (48%) (47%) (35%) (26%) (47%) No. of properties acquired by foreigners 1.200 1.014 1.000 800 719 600 533 378 391 400 255 181 177 200 94 131 - Nicosia Limassol Larnaca Famagusta Paphos H1 2019 H1 2020 Source: Department of Lands and Surveys (DLS), PwC Analysis Cyprus Real Estate Market 29
8 High-end residential property segment (≥€1,5mln) The segment of high-end residential properties was perhaps the most badly hit segment during the first half of 2020. Based on PwC analysis, during the first half of the year, transactions of high-end residential properties reached 51 in total, plummeting by 78% compared to H1 2019 (234 sales of residential properties recorded in H1 2019). Given that the high-end residential property segment is almost directly linked to CIP buyers, the suspension of the programme creates uncertainty with regards to the future of this segment and intensifies the need to re-focus and transform developments which were intended for this segment of the market. Volume of high-end residential properties sold (≥ €1,5mln) Volume of high-end residential properties sold (≥ €1,5mln) 324 319 317 350 No. of properties transacted 300 215 250 102 87 125 200 106 150 72 67 51 100 27 175 191 42 157 50 122 18 21 37 55 - 19 25 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 H1 2020 Limassol Paphos Famagusta Larnaca Nicosia Source: Department of Lands and Surveys (DLS), PwC Analysis Note: High-end residential property segment statistics for all years were based on a data extraction dated 02/10/2020. Any differences with previous publications relate to amended Land Registry records (e.g. cancellations of previous sales etc.) and discrepancies between the date of agreement and respective filing date. 30 PwC Cyprus
f high-end residential properties sold (≥ €1,5mln) Transaction value of high-end residential properties sold (≥ €1,5mln) Transaction value of high-end residential properties sold (≥ €1,5mln) 14 18 €810 €800 20 10% 20 23mln 900 mln €740 mln 800 €570 4% 877% 700 102 7% 6% 125 of total transaction mln 7% 17 value of the sector 600 25% 30% 7% 40% 500 67 €mln €280 28% 400 mln €190 300 mln 191 €117 €80 175 61% 200 42 35% 57% 157 mln mln 11 122 61% 49% 100 18 28% 56% 40% 20 77% 51%55 53% - 37 24 19 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 H1 2020 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 H1 2020 Limassol LimassolPaphos Paphos Famagusta Famagusta Larnaca Larnaca Nicosia Nicosia Source: Department of Lands and Surveys (DLS), PwC Analysis Note: High-end residential property segment statistics for all years were based on a data extraction dated 02/10/2020. Any differences with previous publications relate to amended Land Registry records (e.g. cancellations of previous sales etc.) and discrepancies between the date of agreement and respective filing date. Transaction value of high-end residential properties sold Transaction (≥ €1,5mln)value of high-end (H1 2019 residential properties sold (≥ €1,5mln) Vs H1 2020) In terms of sales value during H1 2020, the high-end residential property sector (≥ €1,5mln) (H1 2019 Vs H1 2020) totaled €117mln, a 78% drop compared to H1 2019. €530 mln (78%) (78%) 250 200 234 Decline in € Decline in # The high-end residential property segment 150 €117 accounted for merely 10% of the total value of 100 mln real estate transactions in Cyprus during H1 2020, (compared to 20% during H1 2019). 50 51 - H1 2019 H1 2020 Cyprus Real Estate Market 31
Looking at the volume and value of high-end residential property transactions on a monthly basis during H1 2020, it appears that in total, after the implementation of the lockdown measures in mid-March 2020, only 17 housing units were sold (during the 3 month period), with a total value of €44mln. Volume and value of high-end residential properties sold (≥ €1,5mln) (January - June 2020) Volume and value of high-end residential properties sold (≥ €1,5mln) (January - June 2020) Value €24 (€mln) mln €24 €25 14 mln mln 12 12 11 11 €15 10 €18 mln mln 8 €11 7 mln 6 6 4 4 2 - January February March April May June No. of units sold Source: Department of Lands and Surveys (DLS), PwC Analysis 32 PwC Cyprus
High-end residential property transactions per district by Limassol district continues to hold the highest number share in terms of number of high-end property 0% transactions (49%), followed by Paphos with 6%3% 2% 10% 8% 2% 2% 41% of the share. 49% 2019 51% Η1 48% 2020 38% 40% 41% Limassol Paphos Famagusta Limassol Paphos Famagusta Limassol Paphos Famagusta Larnaca Nicosia Larnaca Nicosia Larnaca Nicosia Source: Department of Lands and Surveys (DLS), PwC Analysis * The PwC Analysis has been based on transaction data by the DLS in a digital format, extracted from the DLS Portal on 02/10/2020 and relate to transactions with an agreement date of up to 30/6/2020. High-end residential property transactions per property type During H1 2020, houses appeared to be the by number preferred residential property type reaching 63% of total high-end residential transactions across Cyprus, compared to 53% in 2019. 37% 37% 2019 47% 53% Η1 2020 63% 63% Apartments Houses Apartments Houses Apartments Houses Source: Department of Lands and Surveys (DLS), PwC Analysis * The PwC Analysis has been based on transaction data by the DLS in a digital format, extracted from the DLS Portal on 02/10/2020 and relate to transactions with an agreement date up to 30/06/2020. Cyprus Real Estate Market 33
High-end residential property segment (≥€1,5mln) Transaction Volume by Price Band Most of the transactions in the high-end residential segment Transactions in all price bands demonstrated significant during H1 2020 were in the €2mln – €3mln price band decreases during H1 2020, compared to H1 2019. Notably, (representing 55% of the total volume of high-end residential during the first half of 2020 only 1 sale of a single residential property transactions). unit exceeding €5mln was filed at the DLS. Transaction Transaction volumevolume by band by price price band No. of Transactions 2015 4 2016 10 2017 11 >>55 2018 12 2019 11 Η1 2020 1 2015 19 2016 30 2017 48 3-5 2018 36 3-5 2019 25 Η1 2020 5 2015 59 2016 125 2-3 2017 204 2018 196 2 -3 2019 196 Η1 2020 28 2015 24 2016 50 1.5 - 2 2017 54 2018 80 2019 87 1.5 - 2 Η1 2020 17 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 H1 2020 Transaction volume by price band (H12015 2019 Vs H1 2020) 2016 2017 2018 2019 H1 2020 Transaction volume by price band (H1 2019 Vs H1 2020) >5 7 H1 2019 7 (86%) 1 Η1 2020 1 14 H1 2019 14 3-5 5 Η1 2020 5 (64%) 2 -3 151 H1 2019 151 (81%) 28 Η1 2020 28 1.5 - 62 H1 2019 62 2 17 Η1 2020 17 (73%) H1 2019 H1 2020 Source: Department of Lands and Surveys (DLS), PwC Analysis 34 PwC Cyprus
9 Construction Activity The total number of building permits issued during the first half of 2020 reached 3.153 compared to 3.393 during the first half of 2019, representing a drop of 7% YoY. In terms of value, building permits demonstrated a more significant reduction at 35% during the same period. It is noted that construction activity was significantly hit at the beginning of the pandemic outbreak following lockdown measures. To a large extent, the drop observed may be attributed to the lockdown measures during a big part of the period under review, which inevitably affected the procedures of the private and public sector required to issue permits. Building Building Permits Permits Number Number Vs Value Vs Value (m2 / €mln) (m2 / €mln) 10.000 4.000 8.777 3.729 9.000 3.500 8.000 7.506 7.172 7.218 3.000 7.000 6.408 No. of permits 2.640 5.728 2.500 6.000 5.341 5.354 4.933 5.014 € (mln) 5.000 2.065 2.055 2.000 4.000 1.632 1.720 3.153 1.500 3.000 1.141 1.158 1.071 1.000 2.000 859 1.111 1.000 500 - - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 H1 2020 Source: Cystat, PwC Analysis Number of permits Value of permits (€mln) Building Building Permits Permits NumberNumber Vs(H1 Vs Value Value 2019(H1 2019 Vs H1 Vs H1 2020) 2020) 4.000 1.703 1.800 (7%) 3.500 1.600 Decrease in # No. of permits 3.393 1.400 3.000 3.153 € (mln) 1.200 (35%) 2.500 1.111 1.000 2.000 800 1.500 600 Decrease in € 1.000 400 H1 2019 H1 2020 Source: Cystat, PwC Analysis Number of permits Value of permits (€mln) 36 PwC Cyprus
You can also read