WAGER GUIDE - PREAKNESS 146 MAY15/2021
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1/ST BET //
WAGER GUIDE
PREAKNESS 146
MAY15/2021
PIMLICO
RACE COURSE
PREAKNESS 146
POST POSITIONS
RAM (30/1)
ROMBAUER (12/1)
1 6
Owner: William Mack &
Owner: John & Diane Fradkin
Christina Baker
Trainer: Mike McCarthy
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
KEEPMEINMIND (15/1) FRANCE GO DE INA
Owner: Cypress Creek Equine,
(20/1)
2 Spendthrift Farm &
Arnold Bennewith 7 Owner: Yuji Inaida
Trainer: Hideyuki Mori
Trainer: Robertino Diodoro
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Jockey: David Cohen
UNBRIDLED HONOR
MEDINA SPIRIT (9/5)
(15/1)
3 Owner: Zedan Racing Stables
Trainer: Bob Baffert 8 Owner: Whisper Hill Farm
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
Jockey: Luis Saez
CROWDED TRADE
RISK TAKING (15/1)
(10/1)
4 Owner: Klaravich Stables
Trainer: Chad Brown
9 Owner: Klaravich Stables
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Jockey: Javier Castellano
MIDNIGHT BOURBON
CONCERT TOUR (5/2)
(5/1)
5 Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
10 Owner: Gary & Mary West
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Mike Smith
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Odds listed are Pimlico morning line odds.
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PREAKNESS
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MEET THE PREAKNESS
CONTENDERS
By Johnny D., @XBJohnnyD
MEDINA SPIRIT: The Kentucky Derby winner arrives in Baltimore with a bullseye on his back
and plenty of drama around the barn following a questionable post-race drug test. He’s
unlikely to enjoy another relatively uncontested front-running victory. The most serious early
challenge could come from Medina Spirit’s Bob Baffert-trained stablemate and Grade 2 Rebel
Stakes winner Concert Tour. It’s unlikely these two will engage in a premature, head-to-head
battle, because that would be foolish. Neither the trainer nor fellow Hall of Fame jockeys –
John Velazquez on Medina Spirit, Mike Smith on Concert Tour – are likely to fall into that trap.
Depending on who breaks best, one of Baffert’s two likely will set the pace with the other in close
attendance. Medina Spirit wears roses (for now) and along with that goes respect; so he’ll likely
be favored in the Middle Jewel of the Triple Crown.
CONCERT TOUR: As we learned in the Kentucky Derby (for a record seventh time), a Bob
Baffert-trained horse always is dangerous in a Triple Crown race; extra deadly when the trainer
has the luxury of time to aim a horse for a specific target. Such is the case with Concert Tour in
Preakness. Unbeaten in his first four starts and a disappointing third as the heavy favorite in the
Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, this colt’s connections have had the Preakness winner’s circle squarely
in sight for several weeks. The son of Street Sense comes into the race rejuvenated; Hot Springs
flop forgotten. Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith will ride Concert Tour for the first time, replacing
Joel Rosario. The colt has speed and is expected to use it from the start as definitively as
Medina Spirit used his in the Kentucky Derby.
MIDNIGHT BOURBON: He ran a bit of a strange race in the Kentucky Derby. Instead of showing
the kind of speed he had displayed in recent starts, Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith permitted
this son of Tiznow to settle and find his own rhythm. The plan saw the colt racing about mid-
pack for much of the race. He closed ground late, passing some tired foes, but it wasn’t the
type of effort many expected at 13-1 contender’s odds. Smith has jumped ship to ride Concert
Tour in the Preakness and it will be interesting to see how the immensely talented Irad Ortiz, Jr.
approaches the saddle assignment aboard this colt. Will he put ‘Bourbon in the race earlier? The
Steve Asmussen-trained colt has a pair of 96 Beyer Speed Figures to his credit, so he’s quality.
He won the Lecomte in January and was a close third and then second in the Grade 2 Risen Star
and Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, respectively.
CROWDED TRADE: A winner first time out at Aqueduct, this son of More Than Ready is trained
by multiple Eclipse Award-winning trainer Chad Brown, who upset the Preakness applecart in 2017
with Cloud Computing at 13-1 odds. This colt is inexperienced with just three starts. In his second
career journey, he was second in the Grade 3 Gotham at one mile. He then was third in the slowly
run Grade 2 Wood Memorial at one mile and one-eighth. There was some question about this colt’s
ability to get the one mile and one-quarter Derby distance, and his connections are hoping that the
one mile and three-sixteenths Preakness path will be more to his liking. He has little early speed, so
he’ll need matters to quickly combust for his best chance in Old Hilltop’s signature event.
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MEET THE PREAKNESS
CONTENDERS
By Johnny D., @XBJohnnyD
KEEPMEINMIND: After a start at gigantic 49-1 odds in the Kentucky Derby, don’t expect this
son of Laoban to attract much wagering support in the Preakness. However, close replay
observers noticed that this colt ran pretty well in the Derby. Last early, he closed considerable
ground on the leaders and not many runners in the race were able to do that. His 2-year-old
form is strong, boasting respectable, in-the-money finishes behind freshman champ and Derby
favorite Essential Quality in both the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity and in the Grade 1 Breeders’
Cup Juvenile. He won the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club in his final 2020 start. His sophomore
campaign hasn’t progressed as smoothly, but his late run in the Derby could hint at a better
performance in Baltimore, especially if things get hot up front early.
FRANCE GO DE INA: This Kentucky-bred son of Will Take Charge invades Charm City off a
sixth-place finish in the Grade 2 UAE Derby in Dubai. That was his first start of 2021 and he broke
a bit slowly and was squeezed at the start. That left him a well-back last of 14 into the first turn.
A ground-saving, rail-skimming ride had him blocked a bit on the turn, but he was able to gain
some on the leaders in the stretch. However, there was no way he could gain back what was
lost at the start. At two, he romped by more than four lengths in two mile and one-eighth races
in Japan. Top jock Joel Rosario, who rode the colt in Dubai, will return in the saddle hoping for a
better break from the Pimlico gate than the duo experienced last time.
ROMBAUER: He earned an all-fees paid Preakness entry by virtue of an exciting victory in the
El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields. That afternoon he roared home from last in a
field of eight to get up by a neck in the shadow of the wire. That was his first start of 2021 and
he returned to finish third in the Grade 2 Blue Grass last out at Keeneland. At two, he broke his
maiden first out on turf and was second in the Grade 1 American Pharoah at Santa Anita on dirt.
To end his 2-year-old season, he proved he could act with the best of his generation as he was
fifth in the Grade 1 BC Juvenile, behind Derby favorite and fourth-place finisher Essential Quality,
Derby third-place runner Hot Rod Charlie and Preakness foe Keepmeinmind. Top West Coast
jockey Fravien Prat, who commandeered Mandaloun to a runner-up effort in the Derby, will ride
Rombauer for the first time for up-and-coming conditioner Michael McCarthy.
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HANDICAP PREAKNESS
LIKE EDDIE OLCZYK
? DID YOU KNOW?
The 1/ST BET app uses more than
50 factors in evaluating each horse
in a race, drawing from a library of
more than 200,000 previous races
to match past success with future
success. 1/ST BET automatically
matches and ranks the proven, most
successful factors in each race, while
Just as we did 2 weeks ago for the Kentucky Derby, we asked renowned 1/ST and it also gives you the ability to select
NBC handicapper Eddie Olczyk which handicapping angles he applies when your own set of factors to make
analyzing the Preakness Stakes. Now, for the first time, you can reconstruct personalized, artificial intelligence-
Edzo’s Preakness approach and put it to work for yourself by combining forces based selections in mere seconds.
with the 1/ST BET app.
“Not a lot changes from the Derby to the Preakness,” Olczyk said. “I’m not looking to invent a new dance or anything. These horses
are fresh on the minds of horseplayers and they’ve got your attention. Most of the same handicapping fundamentals apply.”
IN THE MIX 1/ST BET FACTORS TO APPLY
“Just like the Derby, you want a Preakness horse in contention when they hit BEST LIFETIME SPEED
the top of the stretch,” Olczyk reasoned. “Other than Exaggerator in the slop SPEED LAST RACE
(2016), you won’t find deep closers having a lot of win-end Preakness success AVERAGE SPEED LAST 3
in the past decade.” The ability to be up close, part of the pace, still matters. AVG. LAST 3 E1 PACE
Consider the Derby’s top 4 finishers this year all were in the front third of the LAST E1 PACE
pack throughout. Because of the immediate relevance of the Derby, consider AVG. LAST 3 E2 PACE
adding in speed and pace factors for the most recent race as well as those LAST E2 PACE
further-reaching. AVG. LAST 3 TURN TIMES
IN THE GENES 1/ST BET FACTORS TO APPLY
“While the Preakness distance is a bit shorter than the Derby,” Olczyk explained, DISTANCE PEDIGREE RATING
“it is still farther than most 3-year-olds want to run, and farther than the newcomers DIRT PEDIGREE RATING
to the Triple Crown series likely have run in their careers. The Derby horses are
proven at the trip, but pedigree can still be the measuring stick for the fresh faces.”
EYE ON THE SKY 1/ST BET FACTORS TO APPLY
“It’s springtime, and you never know when a wet track will become a storyline,” BEST SPEED OFF TRACK
Olczyk said. “Be prepared for which horses might benefit if conditions warrant.” MUD PEDIGREE RATING
Final point: The 1/ST BET app’s factors allow you to adjust your considerations in mere seconds as the day unfolds. “Flexibility is key to
being a good horseplayer,” Olczyk said. “On Derby Day, you watch Jackie’s Warrior run off in the Pat Day Mile and not stop even after
blazing fractions, and it becomes more obvious that you want to be near the front in the Derby. And that’s exactly how it played out.”
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FACTORS THROUGH HISTORY
PREAKNESS STAKES 2017-2020
Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and Justify led as many as 18 and 22 of the 1/ST BET handicapping factors for their
Preakness Stakes appearances. But you don’t have to be that dominant to get noticed. A search of the 1/ST BET archives
indicates that each of the last 7 Preakness champs ranked in the top-3 of their respective fields for most factor categories led.
See where the last 4 Preakness winners ranked best in terms of handicapping factors, and look for those commonalities with
this year’s runners when using the 1/ST BET app to handicap the middle jewel in the Triple Crown. Learn more.
2020 2018 2017
WINNER: SWISS SKYDIVER WINNER: JUSTIFY WINNER: CLOUD COMPUTING
RANKED FIRST IN 7 FACTORS RANKED FIRST IN 22 FACTORS RANKED FIRST IN 6 FACTORS
BEST SPEED DISTANCE AVG. SPEED LAST 3 LAST E2 PACE
BEST SPEED FAST TRACK AVG. EARNINGS TODAY’S DISTANCE AVG. LAST 3 TURN TIME
BEST LIFETIME SPEED LAST E2 PACE AVG. SPEED LAST 3
SPEED LAST RACE BEST SPEED THIS DISTANCE TRAINER CURRENT YEAR
AVG. BEST 2 OF LAST 3 SPEED BEST SPEED OFF TRACK AVG. OF LAST 3 E2
BEST SPEED LAST 3 BEST SPEED FAST TRACK LAST E1 PACE
LAST LATE PACE AVG. LIFETIME EARNINGS
BEST SPEED LAST RACE HORSES WHO LED MOST FACTORS:
HORSES WHO LED MOST FACTORS: TRAINER WIN % 1 YEAR MULTIPLIER (13), ALWAYS DREAMING
EXCESSION (11), AUTHNETIC (8), AVG. OF LAST 3 E2 PACE (9), CLOUD COMPUTING (6)
SWISS SKYDIVER (7) TRAINER CURRENT YEAR
AVG. OFF-TRACK EARNINGS
BEST LIFETIME SPEED
2019
HORSES DEFEATED %
WINNER: WAR OF WILL AVG. SPEED BEST 2 OF LAST 3
RANKED FIRST IN 13 FACTORS: LAST E1 PACE
LAST PURSE TRAINER-JOCKEY WIN % 2 YEARS
LAST RACE CLASS AVG. OF LAST 3 E1 PACE
BEST SPEED TURF BEST SPEED LAST 3
AVG. TURF EARNINGS WIN %
DAYS SINCE LAST RACE JOCKEY WIN % 6 MONTHS
JOCKEY TRAINER ROI MEET JOCKEY WIN % 1 YEAR
AVG. EARNINGS TODAY’S TRACK
HORSES WHO LED MOST FACTORS:
BEST SPEED TODAY’S TRACK
JUSTIFY (22), QUIP (13), GOOD MAGIC
T/J COMBO WIN % MEET
AND LONE SAILOR (5)
TRAINER CURRENT MEET
DISTANCE PEDIGREE RATING
DIRT PEDIGREE RATING
FACTOR CATEGORIES:
TURF PEDIGREE RATING
= PERFORMANCE
HORSES WHO LED MOST FACTORS: = RESULTS
WAR OF WILL AND IMPROBABLE (13), = JOCKEY+ TRAINER
WARRIOR’S CHARGE (7) = PEDIGREE Swiss Skydiver (2020)
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1/ST BET: PREAKNESS STAKES
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE PICKS
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HORSE WIN% PLACE% SHOW% FAIR ODDS
1 RAM 4% 7% 10% 25/1
2 KEEPMEINMIND 10% 17% 39% 9/1
3 MEDINA SPIRIT 31% 47% 61% 2/1
4 CROWDED TRADE 22% 33% 43% 7/2
5 MIDNIGHT BOURBON 5% 16% 26% 20/1
6 ROMBAUER 4% 10% 22% 25/1
7 FRANCE GO DE INA 4% 8% 12% 25/1
8 UNBRIDLED HONOR 4% 10% 17% 25/1
9 RISK TAKING 9% 19% 26% 10/1
10 CONCERT TOUR 9% 33% 44% 10/1
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ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE PICKS
Race # - Post Time Win Place Show FairOdds Race # - Post Time Win Place Show FairOdds
RACE 1 (10:30 AM ET) // SIR BARTON STAKES ($100K) RACE 8 (2:45 PM ET) // JAMES W. MURPHY STAKES ($100K)
3 MARKET CAP 29% 55% 69% 5/2 2 OUTADORE 27% 50% 61% 5/2
5 ROMP 27% 47% 64% 5/2 5 EXTRASEXYBIGDADDEE 20% 37% 50% 4/1
4 HOZIER 17% 41% 59% 5/1 1 INDIAN LAKE 17% 34% 50% 5/1
1 THE KING CHEEK 13% 28% 49% 7/1 6 ARZAK 12% 16% 37% 8/1
RACE 2 (11:05 AM ET) // ALLOWANCE ($52K) RACE 9 (3:25 PM ET) // RUNHAPPY SKIPAT STAKES ($100K)
10 OCEANS MAP 20% 28% 40% 4/1 2 CASUAL 32% 51% 63% 2/1
7 OPERATIVE 17% 30% 38% 5/1 5 CHUB WAGON 23% 52% 73% 7/2
9 UNEQUIVOCAL 12% 24% 31% 8/1 8 FRENCH EMPIRE 14% 32% 44% 6/1
3 SPEED GAME 11% 21% 28% 9/1 6 DONTLETSWEETFOOLYA 8% 23% 38% 12/1
RACE 3 (11:41 AM ET) // CHICK LANG STAKES ($200K) RACE 10 (4:05 PM ET) // JIM MCKAY TURF SPRINT STAKES ($100K)
4 JAXON TRAVELER 32% 51% 70% 2/1 4 THE CRITICAL WAY 27% 43% 52% 5/2
2 MIGHTY MISCHIEF 25% 51% 64% 3/1 5 HOLLIS 14% 25% 34% 6/1
5 SHACKLED LOVE 13% 30% 49% 7/1 11 FIRECROW 13% 24% 35% 7/1
6 WILLIE BOI 13% 33% 56% 7/1 1 BOLDOR 7% 13% 31% 12/1
RACE 4 (12:16 PM ET) // ALLOWANCE ($52K) RACE 11 (4:41 PM ET) // MARYLAND SPRINT STAKES ($150K)
12 OUT OF SORTS 20% 27% 38% 4/1 1 LAKI 26% 43% 54% 3/1
6 JUDI BLUE EYES 16% 29% 36% 5/1 5 STRIKE POWER 17% 32% 46% 5/1
8 GLAMOROUS THUNDER 11% 23% 29% 9/1 7 BREEZY GUST 11% 22% 36% 9/1
2 LIRAZ 10% 20% 27% 9/1 2 YODEL E.A. WHO 11% 22% 34% 9/1
RACE 5 (12:51 PM ET) // ALLOWANCE ($52K) RACE 12 (5:38 PM ET) // DINNER PARTY STAKES ($250K)
7 SUGAR DADDY 29% 42% 52% 5/2 5 SACRED LIFE 25% 45% 54% 3/1
4 FIRE SWORD 16% 28% 44% 5/1 1 SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN 23% 43% 50% 7/2
2 BREAKING NEWS 12% 27% 41% 8/1 3 KURAMATA 20% 31% 44% 4/1
10 ABUELO PAPS 10% 26% 31% 9/1 6 TALK OR LISTEN 10% 25% 38% 9/1
RACE 6 (1:28 PM ET) // GALLORETTE STAKES ($150K) RACE 13 (6:47 PM ET) // PREAKNESS STAKES ($1M)
3 FLIGHTY LADY 30% 52% 69% 5/2 3 MEDINA SPIRIT 31% 47% 61% 2/1
2 GREAT ISLAND 21% 41% 57% 7/2 4 CROWDED TRADE 22% 33% 43% 7/2
1 VIGILANTES WAY 14% 28% 56% 6/1 2 KEEPMEINMIND 10% 17% 39% 9/1
5 MEAN MARY 14% 26% 44% 6/1 10 CONCERT TOUR 9% 33% 44% 10/1
RACE 7 (2:07 PM ET) // ALLOWANCE ($55K) RACE 14 (7:33 PM ET) // UAE PRESIDENT CUP STAKES ($100K)
2 BURNING BRIGHT 31% 47% 59% 5/2 10 PADDYS DAY 23% 40% 50% 7/2
5 MCELMORE AVENUE 13% 25% 36% 7/1 8 RB RICH LYKE ME 17% 30% 44% 5/1
3 SHANE’S JEWEL 11% 24% 37% 9/1 3 UPTOWN SANDY GIRL 7% 12% 24% 12/1
10 MISCHIEF AFOOT 9% 26% 34% 10/1 4 UPTOWNLADYARABELLA 7% 10% 19% 12/1
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PREAKNESS
WAGERING FACTS
Below are some informative wagering tidbits from past Preakness events.
WIN-PLACE-SHOW ODDS LOWEST-PRICED FAVORITES
(Last 20 Years, Odds to $1) (Last 20 Years, Odds to $1)
Win Odds: Average: 4.95 Odds Horse Year Fin.
High: 15.40 (Oxbow, 2013) .20 Big Brown 2008 1st
Low: .20 (Big Brown, 2008) .40 Justify 2018 1st
Notable: Last year’s winner Swiss Skydiver was the fifth price .50 California Chrome 2014 1st
player to score at 10-1 or more since 2006. .50 Barbaro 2006 dnf
.70 Nyquist 2016 3rd
Place Odds: Average: 14.65 .70 Orb 2013 4th
High: 45.70 (Magic Weisner, 2002) .90 American Pharoah 2015 1st
Low: 1.30 (Street Sense, 2007)
Notable: Authentic (2020) became the first favorite to finish as the LONGSHOT WINNERS
runner-up since Bodemeister (2012). (15-1 OR MORE, ALL-TIME)
$2 Payoff Horse Year
Show Odds: Average: 12.44 $48.80 Master Derby 1975
High: 31.70 (Senior Investment, 2017) $45.60 Coventry 1925
Low: .70 (Nyquist, 2016) $40.70 Display 1926
Notable: Nyquist (2016) is the only Preakness favorite to finish $39.40 Bee Bee Bee 1972
third in the last 20 years. $32.80 Oxbow 2013
$32.00 Hindus 1900
$32.00 Don Enrique 1907
EXACTA PAYOFFS
(Last 20 years, $2 Payoffs) HIGHEST-PRICED SUPERFECTA FINISHERS
Average: $148.98 (Last 15 Years, Odds to $1)
High: $947.00 (War of Will-Everfast, 2019) Odds Horse Year Fin.
Low: $18.20 (California Chrome-Ride On Curlin, 2014) 40.90 Jesus’ Team 2020 3rd
Notable: 17 of the last 20 exactas have had at least 1 horse 3-1 or 39.90 Macho Again 2008 2nd
less on the ticket. 31.70 Senior Investment 2017 3rd
29.40 Hemingway’s Key 2006 3rd
TRIFECTA PAYOFFS 29.30 Everfast 2019 3rd
(Last 20 years, $1 Payoffs) 28.50 Tale of Verve 2015 2nd
Average: $873.84 26.10 Tenfold 2018 3rd
High: $4,699.80 (War of Will-Everfast-Owendale, 2019) 25.40 Flying Private 2009 4th
Low: $35.40 (I’ll Have Another-Bodemeister-Creative Cause, 2012) 25.10 Racecar Rhapsody 2008 4th
Notable: The $1 Preakness trifecta has returned more than
$1,000 in 3 of the last 4 years. 2019-‘20 PREAKNESS HANDLE TOTALS
(Handle in Millions Except BES/PRK DD)
SUPERFECTA PAYOFFS Wager 2019 2020
(Last 20 years, $1 Payoffs) Win/Place/Show $21.8 $9.8
Average: $6,238.80 (Average Odds of Fourth-place finishers is 11.2-1) Exacta $13.2 $5.6
High: $51,924 (War of Will-Everfast-Owendale-Warrior’s Charge, 2019) Trifecta $11.8 $6.6
Low: $173.80 (California Chrome-Ride On Curlin-Social Inclusion- Superfecta $6.8 $4.0
General A Rod, 2014) Pick Four $3.1 $1.4
Notable: 7 times in its 23-year history, the superfecta on the Preakness Black-Eyed Susan/Preakness DD $810K $290K
has paid $5,000 or more for a $1 bet, including the past 2 years.
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DESPITE CONTROVERSIES BLACK-EYED SUSAN STAKES
PIMLICO // FRIDAY // RACE 13
By Brent Musburger (@brentmusburger)
Post Win % Place % Show %
ANALYSIS: It used to be that you would never go against Bob Baffert in the Preakness, BEAUTIFUL GIFT
10
especially since he had never lost with a Kentucky Derby winner. That was before last 28% 45% 55%
year. He was 6-for-6 before Authentic and everyone else were defeated last fall by the ADVENTURING
9
fabulous filly Swiss Skydiver. Because of the COVID scheduling, that seemed to be the 15% 29% 42%
most abnormal Preakness ever – until this weekend. Now Baffert has to wait out two
THE GRASS IS BLUE
drug tests on MEDINA SPIRIT: one on a split sample to learn if he keeps his record 8
12% 35% 44%
seventh Derby victory; the other an onsite test to see if there are still any prohibited
ARMY WIFE
traces left in the colt’s system. If it is anything more than zero, MEDINA SPIRIT would 1
11% 22% 33%
be out of the Preakness. Even if that latest test comes back clean, the biggest threat to
keeping the Triple Crown alive is in Baffert’s own barn. At the owners’ urging, CONCERT ICED LATTE
6 9% 17% 31%
TOUR was held out of the Derby. He was widely considered to be Baffert’s best, healthy
3-year-old before he suffered his first career loss in the Arkansas Derby. Hall of Famers MISS LESLIE
7 8% 11% 28%
John Velázquez and Mike Smith have the rides, and they both figure to send the two
horses forward early in the race. It will be a case of “come and get ’em” for all their rivals. FOREVER BOSS
4 5% 11% 19%
MAIN CONTENDERS: While MEDINA SPIRIT and CONCERT TOUR provide the early WILLFUL WOMAN
2 4% 13% 21%
speed, don’t be fooled by MIDNIGHT BOURBON’s Derby. He had a bumpy trip past the
wire the first time around Churchill Downs, so he had an alibi for being back in the pack LADY TRAVELER
for his sixth-place finish. Wood Memorial third CROWDED TRADE looks like the best of 5 4% 11% 16%
the two horses for Chad Brown, who added Withers victor RISK TAKING late last week.
SPRITZ
The key is the break. Johnny V. will try to get MEDINA SPIRIT on the lead and take him 3 4% 7% 11%
home the way he did in the Derby. The fact that MEDINA SPIRIT has never been passed
once that he is in first place is telling. A gate-to-wire win is the Baffert way.
TIP: Scratches can impact the 1/ST BET
AI picks, so be sure to run the app’s
VALUE PLAYS: ROMBAUER won the El Camino Real Derby on a synthetic surface
handicapping features on Black-Eyed
to qualify for the Preakness, and his connections decided to take the free pass Susan Day for the latest projections.
to Pimlico rather than shell out the bucks to enter the Derby. As a side note,
ROMBAUER has been my favorite chardonnay for years. I have been to the vineyard
in Napa, and their corks actually say “the joy of wine.” The only problem is it got too
expensive. It is the most pricy chardonnay I have ever seen. Maybe the best way to
get a bargain on the wine is to find value on the horse.
$100 WAGERING STRATEGY:
• $50 Exacta Box: MEDINA SPIRIT and CONCERT TOUR ($100)
TOP 4 PICKS
1. MEDINA SPIRIT 3. MIDNIGHT BOURBON
2. CONCERT TOUR 4. ROMBAUER
1ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 12PREAKNESS STAKES
GRADE 1 - $1,000,000
3YO – 1 3/16 MILES (DIRT)
ONE BOURBON, STATS & TRENDS
ONE SHOT, ONE CHEER DERBY WINNERS IN PREAKNESS
(LAST 15 YEARS)
By Jeremy Plonk, @HorsePlayerNow Year Horse Fin. Odds
‘20 Authentic 2nd 3-2*
ANALYSIS: Handicapping the Preakness got considerably trickier upon the ‘19 -did not compete-
‘18 Justify 1st 2-5*
announcement by Bob Baffert that Kentucky Derby winner MEDINA SPIRIT
‘17 Always Dreaming 8th 6-5*
had tested positive for a banned substance in Louisville. What do you do as
‘16 Nyquist 3rd 3-5*
a horseplayer: toss the favorite, trust the result or shop around amongst the ‘15 Amer. Pharoah 1st 4-5*
uncertainty? Even before the breaking news Sunday, I was leaning toward shopping ‘14 Cal. Chrome 1st 1-2*
because MEDINA SPIRIT does not bounce into Baltimore with the same air of ‘13 Orb 4th 3-5*
invincibility as Justify at 2-5 or American Pharoah at 4-5. Do I worry about losing ‘12 I’ll Have Another 1st 3-1*
‘11 Animal Kingdom 2nd 2-1*
to him? Not so much; that’s life. But I do recognize that the uncertainty of his
‘10 Super Saver 8th 9-5*
situation, betting-wise, could increase his odds, thus dropping those on horses
‘09 Mine That Bird 2nd 6-1
with which you’re trying to defeat him. ‘08 Big Brown 1st 1-5*
‘07 Street Sense 2nd 6-5*
MAIN CONTENDERS: MEDINA SPIRIT and stablemate CONCERT TOUR likely ‘06 Barbaro dnf 1-2*
start as the top two wagering choices and also double as the controlling speed in *Preakness Favorite
Preakness 146. That’s a tough read as to how they’ll attack one another. CONCERT
HALF-MILE LEADERS
TOUR is 2-2 on the lead and 0-2 chasing. MEDINA SPIRIT is essentially 3-3 manning
Year Horse Fin.
the engine and 0-3 in pursuit. Jockey Mike Smith, as well as Baffert, will hear the ‘20 Authentic 2nd
wrath of racing observers if he’s too casual aboard distance-challenged CONCERT ‘19 Warrior’s Charge 4th
TOUR. There’s one shot in upending the Baffert juggernaut, and that’s if they each ‘18 Justify 1st
get too brazen in their independence. If so, MIDNIGHT BOURBON almost assuredly ‘17 Always Dreaming 8th
‘16 Nyquist 3rd
will be sitting in the crosshairs from third position, for the first time under America’s
‘15 Amer. Pharoah 1st
top pilot Irad Ortiz Jr. The colt’s Derby effort was highly appreciated by this eye.
‘14 Pablo Del Monte 6th
‘13 Oxbow 1st
VALUE PLAYS: The bulk of the rest are deep closers. KEEPMEINMIND figures to ‘12 Bodemeister 2nd
be slightly overrated off his Derby rally. CROWDED TRADE looks a lot on paper like ‘11 Flashpoint 14th
his 2017 stable predecessor Cloud Computing, who upset the Preakness. But his
PREAKNESS WINNERS
2021 NYRA contemporaries were overmatched in Louisville, dissuading me from
WHO SKIPPED DERBY
backing his form. Japanese raider FRANCE GO DE INA made solid headway in the
(SINCE 1980)
UAE Derby late and perhaps America’s best finishing jockey, Joel Rosario (who also Year Horse
rode him in Dubai), would seem a great style fit. ‘20 Swiss Skydiver
‘17 Cloud Computing
$100 WAGERING STRATEGY: ‘09 Rachel Alexandra
‘06 Bernardini
• $55 Win: MIDNIGHT BOURBON
‘00 Red Bullet
• $20 Exacta Box: MIDNIGHT BOURBON and MEDINA SPIRIT ($40)
‘83 Deputed Testamony
• $5 Exacta: MIDNIGHT BOURBON over FRANCE GO DE INA (5) ‘82 Aloma’s Ruler
TOP 4 PICKS
1. MIDNIGHT BOURBON 3. FRANCE GO DE INA
2. MEDINA SPIRIT 4. CONCERT TOUR
1ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 13PREAKNESS STAKES
GRADE 1 - $1,000,000
3YO – 1 3/16 MILES (DIRT)
BAFFERT AGAIN. PREAKNESS “LAST TIMES”THE
BUT WHICH ONE? THE LAST...
KENTUCKY DERBY WINNER TO WIN:
By Jeff Siegel @jsiegelracing Justify (2018)
ANALYSIS: Trainer Bob Baffert has saddled two Triple Crown winners – American KENTUCKY DERBY RUNNER-UP TO
WIN: Exagerrator (2016)
Pharoah (2015) and Justify (2018) – but the pressure that was felt during the midst of those
magnificent achievements pales in comparison to what the Hall of Fame conditioner
KENTUCKY DERBY SHOW HORSE TO WIN:
surely is experiencing following the disclosure of a post-race positive drug test that leaves Curlin (2007)
the Kentucky Derby result in doubt. Through it all, MEDINA SPIRIT, oblivious to the
controversy, is reported to be sound and healthy and will be the favorite to repeat his DERBY OFF-THE-BOARD FINISHER TO WIN:
heroics in the Preakness. The rags-to-riches, $1,000 yearling purchase likely won’t Oxbow (2013)
enjoy the same type of comfortable, front-running trip that propelled him at Churchill
KENTUCKY DERBY EXACTA TO REPEAT
Downs. At Old Hilltop, MEDINA SPIRIT must contend with stablemate CONCERT
1-2 IN PREAKNESS:
TOUR, a once-beaten and extremely fast colt who seems likely to employ gate-to-wire I’ll Have Another-Bodemeister (2012)
tactics and offer the most serious challenge to the Derby’s first-place finisher.
KENTUCKY DERBY TRIFECTA TO
MAIN CONTENDERS: In six career starts, MEDINA SPIRIT has finished behind REPEAT 1-2-3 IN PREAKNESS:
Affirmed-Alydar-Believe It (1978)
only two horses, unbeaten Life is Good (twice) and Rock Your World, the wire-to-
wire upset winner of the Santa Anita Derby. The concerns surrounding MEDINA
NON-KENTUCKY DERBY ALUM TO WIN:
SPIRIT in Baltimore are three-fold. First, can he replicate his best performance Swiss Skydiver (2020)
without a front-running trip? Second, will he react adversely to the quick, 14-day
turnaround after a full expenditure of energy in Louisville? And third, a loose-on- PREPPED LAST AT PIMLICO TO WIN:
the lead CONCERT TOUR may get very brave, just as he did in his most impressive Bee Bee Bee (1972)
career victory two runs back in the Rebel. Not too long ago the son of Street Sense
JOCKEY TO WIN BACK-TO-BACK:
was the higher-regarded of two Baffert entrants, and those who back him to beat
Victor Espinoza 2014-’15 with California
MEDINA SPIRIT will be doing so at a considerably better price this time. Chrome and American Pharoah
VALUE PLAYS: MIDNIGHT BOURBON found himself too far back during the early stages JOCKEY TO WIN HIS DEBUT:
of the Derby to have any say in the outcome, though, to his credit, he kept to his task and Mario Gutierrez (2012) aboard I’ll Have Another
wound up a respectable sixth of 19, beaten about eight lengths. In the Preakness, with
TRAINER TO WIN BACK-TO-BACK:
an aggressive ride from new pilot Irad Ortiz Jr., the son of Tiznow projects to draft into an
Bob Baffert (2001-‘02) with
ideal second flight, stalking position and then have every chance to make some noise Point Given & War Emblem
from the quarter-pole home. Given his anticipated trip, the Steve Asmusssen-trained
colt could easily outrun his odds and at least participate in the vertical exotics. TRAINER TO WIN HIS DEBUT:
Chad Brown (2017) with Cloud Computing
$100 WAGERING STRATEGY:
FILLY TO WIN:
• $35 Exacta Box: MEDINA SPIRIT and CONCERT TOUR ($70)
Swiss Skydiver (2020), last of 5 fillies
• $5 Exacta Box: MEDINA SPIRIT, CONCERT TOUR, MIDNIGHT BOURBON ($30) to have won this race
TOP 4 PICKS
1. MEDINA SPIRIT 3. MIDNIGHT BOURBON
2. CONCERT TOUR 4. KEEPMEINMIND
1ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 14PREAKNESSS 146
EXPERT PICKS
We tasked our expert racing analysts across the 1/ST family to provide their selections for this year’s second jewel
in the Triple Crown.
JEFF JOHN MICHELLE NAOMI
SIEGEL DESANTIS YU TUKKER
@jsiegelracing @XBJohnnyD @themichelleyu @NaomiTukker
MEDINA SPIRIT CONCERT TOUR MEDINA SPIRIT CONCERT TOUR
CONCERT TOUR MIDNIGHT BOURBON CONCERT TOUR MIDNIGHT BOURBON
MIDNIGHT BOURBON KEEPMEINMIND UNBRIDLED HONOR MEDINA SPIRIT
KEEPMEINMIND RISK TAKING MIDNIGHT BOURBON CROWDED TRADE
JEREMY TOM MILLIE RON
PLONK QUIGLEY BALL NICOLETTI
@Horseplayernow @quigleys_corner @camillayakteen @ronic17
MIDNIGHT BOURBON ROMBAUER CONCERT TOUR MIDNIGHT BOURBON
MEDINA SPIRIT MEDINA SPIRIT MEDINA SPIRIT MEDINA SPIRIT
FRANCE GO DE INA CROWDED TRADE MIDNIGHT BOURBON CONCERT TOUR
CONCERT TOUR CONCERT TOUR UNBRIDLED HONOR UNBRIDLED HONOR
CLAUDIA MATT ZOE JON
SPADARO DINERMAN CADMAN WHITE
@claudiaspadaro @3coltshandicap @zoecadman @PostTimeJon
CONCERT TOUR CONCERT TOUR CONCERT TOUR CONCERT TOUR
MIDNIGHT BOURBON MIDNIGHT BOURBON MIDNIGHT BOURBON MEDINA SPIRIT
MEDINA SPIRIT ROMBAUER MEDINA SPIRIT MIDNIGHT BOURBON
CROWDED TRADE MEDINA SPIRIT UNBRIDLED HONOR CROWDED TRADE
PETER DUSTIN GEORGE EDDIE
LURIE FABIAN ORTUZAR OLCZYK
@Peterlurievo @1STBET @georgeortuzar @1STBET
CONCERT TOUR CONCERT TOUR CONCERT TOUR MIDNIGHT BOURBON
FRANCE GO DE INA ROMBAUER MEDINA SPIRIT CONCERT TOUR
MEDINA SPIRIT MEDINA SPIRIT MIDNIGHT BOURBON ROMBAUER
CROWDED TRADE CROWDED TRADE UNBRIDLED HONOR MEDINA SPIRIT
1ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 15PREAKNESS 146
NEED-TO-KNOW
RACE DATE: SATURDAY, MAY 15
FIRST RACE POST TIME: 10:30 A.M. ET
PREAKNESS STAKES POST TIME: 6:47 P.M. ET
WATCH FREE AND WAGER: ALL RACES ON 1/ST BET APP & XPRESSBET.COM
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WAGERING NOTES: BLACK-EYED SUSAN/PREAKNESS DAILY DOUBLE (FRI/SAT)
DERBY DAY STAKES LINEUP
Grade 1 Preakness $1,000,000 3YO 1-3/16 miles
Grade 2 Dinner Party $250,000 3&UP 1-1/16 miles (turf)
Grade 3 Chick Lang $200,000 3YO 6 furlongs
Grade 3 Gallorette $150,000 3&UP/FM 1-1/16 miles (turf)
Grade 3 Maryland Sprint $150,000 3&UP 6 furlongs
Jim McKay Turf Sprint $100,000 3&UP 5 furlongs (turf)
Sir Barton $100,000 3YO 1-1/16 miles
Skipat $100,000 3&UP/FM 6 furlongs
James W. Murphy $100,000 3YO 1 mile (turf)
PREAKNESS CHALLENGE
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