UNDERMINING DEMOCRACY - THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN THAILAND, THE PHILIPPINES, AND INDIA - FOCUS ON THE GLOBAL SOUTH
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Undermining Democracy THE 2019 ELECT IONS IN Thailand, the Philippines, and India Focus on the Global South J ul y 2 0 1 9
Undermining
Democracy
THE 2019 ELECT IONS IN T hai l an d,
t h e Ph i lippi n e s , an d In di a
Focus on the Global South
July 2019
Undermining Democracy THE 2 0 1 9 ELECTIONS IN Th ail a nd, t he Philippines, a nd India Copyright 2019 by Focus on the Global South Published by Focus on the Global South 4th Floor Wisit Prachuabmoh Building Chulalongkorn University, Phayathai Road Bangkok 10330, THAILAND Tel: +66 2 218 7363 Fax: +66 2 255 9976 Email: info@focusweb.org www.focusweb.org
Contents
7 Introduction
9 Key Features of Electoral Systems
11 THAILAND
Elections and Social Polarization
24 The Philippines
Not Electoral Politics as Usual
35 India
In the Grip of Charismatic Politics
53 Conclusion
Elections, Authoritarianism, and Charismatic Politics
57 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
INTRODUCTION
In the first half of 2019, have been larger were it This study seeks to shed
a great deal of global not for legal and procedural some light on the electoral
attention focused on national obstacles placed in their way. outcomes in the three
elections in three countries countries in three stages:
where authoritarian regimes In the Philippines, while
or personalities were in President Rodrigo Duterte First, it examines the national
command of the state: was not running in the mid- situation leading up to the
Thailand, the Philippines, term election, everyone elections, the key issues that
and India. The big question knew that the election was were before voters, and the
was, would voters buck the a referendum on him and conduct of the elections.
authoritarian trend or affirm his policies, particularly his
it? In all three countries, controversial war on drugs, Second, it seeks to
there were those who hoped and the electorate gave him understand the results of the
for a “Malaysian surprise,” an overwhelming thumbs up, elections by situating them
that is, a repudiation of the with the opposition failing to within the dynamics of the
ruling regime such as that notch even just one in the 12 broader political process in
delivered to the UMNO Senate seats in contention. each country.
party dynasty by the voters
in Malaysia in 2018. In India, the world’s largest Third, it engages in a
democracy, where there comparative analysis of the
When the dust settled, the had been a consensus electoral and broader political
electorates in the three among pundits that the processes in the three
countries had delivered state of the economy would countries, with an eye on
striking, if somewhat drag down the ruling BJP’s drawing out both similarities
divergent results, between (Bharatiya Janata Party) and differences.
Thailand on the one hand numbers, the party led by
and the Philippines and India Prime Minister Narendra The overall conclusion is that
on the other. Modi was rewarded with the elections did not achieve
an even bigger majority of their objective of mitigating
In Thailand, the outcome parliamentary seats than in political polarization in
showed the country to be 2014, giving credence to Thailand but were very
divided as ever, with almost party leader Amit Shah’s pre- successful in expanding
half of the electorate voting poll prediction that the BJP regime legitimacy in the
for candidates of opposition would rule for the next 50 Philippines and India. The
parties, a figure that could years.1 difference in the outcomes
UnderminING Democracy
TH E 2019 E L E C T I O N S I N T h a ila n d , the Philippines , a n d I n d i a 7
is traced to the contrasting the excision or repressive but no less daunting. This is
dynamics of politics in the containment of an “Other” or keeping democracy alive in
three countries. The Thai “Others” unto which the ills, an era of charismatic politics,
election was a continuation problems, and disharmony of where electoral mobilization
of the counterrevolutionary society were projected. becomes an instrument
reaction to the lower-class for the transition to less
based populism initiated Democracy is confronted democratic forms of rule.
by Thaksin Shinawatra. with great challenges in the
The elections in the three countries. In Thailand,
Philippines and India were, the overriding task is how to
in contrast, moments in the change an electoral system
1 “BJP Will Win 2019; Will Rule
transformation of politics that hems in and constrains for Next 50 Years:’ Amit Shah,”
by charismatic figures who democratic choice with Hindustan Times, Sept. 9, 2018,
served as lightning rods institutions and procedures https://www.hindustantimes.
for people’s discontent that are implicitly backed by com/india-news/bjp-will-
win-2019-will-rule-for-next-
and personified hopes and the firepower of the army. 50-years-amit-shah/story-
visions for the future while In India and the Philippines, uqbwTVtGU1osyJxqZ19XKP.
at the same time promoting the challenge is different html, accessed May 25, 2019.
Focus on the Global South
8 J u LY 2 0 1 9
Key Features of Electoral Systems
Thailand, the Philippines, and India display significant variations in their electoral systems.
Perhaps the biggest difference among the three is that the Philippines has a presidential
system, where the head of state is elected directly by the electorate whereas Thailand
and India have parliamentary systems where the executive leadership or government is
formed by the major party or alliance of parties in parliament, by the lower house or Lok
Sabha in India and jointly by the Senate and the House of Representatives in Thailand.
All three have bicameral legislative bodies, though again here there are important
differences. In India, the lower house is far more powerful than the upper house or Rajya
Sabha; in Thailand, the Senate is meant mainly to check the House of Representatives;
while in the Philippines, the Senate might be said to be truly co-equal with the House and
certainly far more prestigious, a situation much like that in the US, which colonized and
transmitted many of its political institutions to the Philippines.
Thailand
Thailand has a bicameral elected, under the 2017 candidates who were “first
National Assembly, election Constitution, there are 250 past the post” or got more
or appointment to which senators, all of whom are votes than anyone else in
have been governed by appointed by the National each of 350 constituencies.
the Constitution and the Council for Peace and One hundred-fifty (150)
Organic Law on Elections. Order. were allocated to political
Changes in the Constitution parties based on their
and, consequently, the Election to the House of share of the popular vote,
Organic Law on Elections Representatives is via a a process popularly termed
have been responsible for hybrid “first-past-the-post”/ “The party-list.” Under
significant changes in the proportional representation this system, one vote
voting system over the system, or “mixed-member counted twice, once for
years. Thus, whereas under proportional representation the candidate and once
the 2007 Constitution, system.” In the 2019 for his or her party. In
the Senate had 150 elections, 350 of 500 seats calculating the number of
members, 76 of whom were in play were reserved for party-list seats allocated to
a party, the total number
of constituencies won was
deducted from the total
allocation of party-list seats.
In contrast to the system of
allocating party-list seats
in 2011, the 2019 system
was regarded by many as
discriminating against large
parties like the pro-Thaksin
Pheu Thai Party.
UnderminING Democracy
THE 2019 ELECT I ONS I N T h a i l a n d , t h e Ph i l ippi n e s , a n d I n d i a 9
the Philippines
The Philippines has a presidential
system, with the president elected
for one six-year term, with no
possibility of reelection.
Legislation is done by a bicameral
Congress. The upper house,
or Senate, has 24 seats, half of
which become vacant and subject
to election every three years.
Senators are elected to a six-year
term, with reelection possible for
one more term.
The lower house, or House of
Representatives, is made up of India
district and party-list representatives
who can serve for three consecutive Elections in India take place at the level of the
three-year terms. Eighty (80) Rajya Sabha, the Council of State that serves as
percent are district representatives the upper house of parliament; Lok Sabha, the
elected on a first-past-the-post lower house of parliament; state legislatures;
system. Twenty (20) percent are and local bodies. The Lok Sabha elections
party-list representatives. The are the most consequential since their results
allocation of seats to parties is determine which party or alliance of parties will
done according to their share of the get the privilege of naming the prime minister
votes of those voters who indicate and forming the country’s executive leadership
a preference for a party-list in their or government. Though formally equal with
ballot, not the votes of all who cast the Lok Sabha, the Rajya Sabha is much less
their ballots. The number of seats powerful in reality since it is the Lok Sabha that
allocated to a party depends on forms the government.
its share of the party-list vote, two
percent being a minimum threshold, Election to the Lok Sabha is held every five
though this is flexible if the number years unless the body is formally dissolved by
of seats available cannot all be filled the president on the advice of the Council of
by the parties which achieve the Ministers. The Constitution of India specifies
minimum. The maximum number of that the maximum number of seats in the Lok
seats allocated to a party is three, Sabha is 552; 543 seats were in play in the May
which is given only to parties which 2019 elections.
gain six percent or more of the
party-list vote. Owing to the vast expanse of India and the large
number of voters, some 900 million, elections to
In the 2019 elections, elected the Lok Sabha in 2019 were carried out in seven-
positions from the Senate down to phases over a six week period and the results
the municipal level were in play. were announced on May 23.
Focus on the Global South
10 J u ly 2 0 1 91
THAILAND
Elections and Social Polarization
When the Thai military Background to the Retired General Prayuth
launched a coup that March 2019 Elections Chan-o-cha beams as he
deposed the civilian meets the press after receiving
government in May 2014, Twenty-seven years ago, his royal appointment as
it announced that at the when the regime led Prime Minister on June 11,
most its rule would last for by General Suchinda 2019. Source: Gen Prayuth
15 months. It has been in Kraprayoon was ousted Chan-o-cha Facebook available
power now for over five years. following middle-class- on https://web.facebook.com/
And in these five years, it led street protests in May prayutofficial/photos/a.4677557
has created the framework 1992, the event was widely 83720042/601049910390628/?t
that would institutionalize its expected to have placed ype=1&theater under a Creative
role as the dominant actor in an end to the Thai military’s Commons Attribution 2.0 http://
the post-military regimes to propensity to intervene in creativecommons.org/licenses/
come. politics. From 2001 to 2014, by/2.0
UnderminING Democracy
THE 2019 ELECT I ONS I N T h a i l a n d , t h e Ph i l ippi n e s , a n d I n d i a 11Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, the youthful leader of Future Forward Party, greets his supporters
before hearing charges against him at Pathumwan police station on April 6, 2019. Source: Prachatai
available on https://www.flickr.com/photos/prachatai/47557961411/ under a Creative Commons Attribution
2.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0
however, Thaksin Shinawatra was the middle class, which being dominated by different
transformed the country’s reacted negatively to the electoral incarnations of the
politics. Shinawatra was a political and economic Thaksin bloc. After the latter
business mogul who made empowerment of the urban won a majority for the fourth
the rural lower classes, and rural poor, and cast its lot straight time in 10 years in
particularly in the North and with the conservative elite, 2011, the anti-Thaksin forces
Northeast, a firm base of providing the mass base for realized that widespread
support through popular the push to remove Thaksin support from the masses
policies like the enactment of from power. would assure the Thaksin bloc
universal health care, a one- a permanent majority under
million-baht investment fund Elite-led mobilization of the normal one person-one
given to each village, and the middle class invited vote system.
agricultural subsidies. The military intervention to oust
traditional aristocratic and Thaksin in 2006, followed Over the next few months
bureaucratic elite grouped by the Constitutional Court’s after the 2011 elections,
around the monarchy, dissolution of his party, the a non-electoral strategy
what some scholars called Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love gradually evolved: use the
the “network monarchy,”1 Thais). After a short period judicial system to paralyze
naturally felt threatened by of rule that was widely the government with charges
Thaksin’s accumulation of recognized as incompetent, of corruption and anti-
power. What was decisive the military gave way to constitutional moves; get the
in pushing the dynamics of elections and civilian rule, middle class to stage massive
the next few years, however, which resulted in parliaments demonstrations in central
Focus on the Global South
12 J u LY 2 0 1 9Bangkok, which was largely the National Council for pro- and anti-Thaksin factions
anti-Thaksin territory; and Peace and Order (NCPO) (some would say, pro- and
get the military to launch a sweeping powers to do anti-democracy factions) in
coup to resolve the political anything that would bring the previous 13 years, marked
deadlock. about the “promotion of the succeeding period.
love and harmony amongst The military under the
Bangkok in 2013–14 the people in the nation, or leadership of General Prayuth
became the site of almost the prevention, abatement Chan-o-cha quickly moved
daily demonstrations by or suppression of any act to set up a set of institutions,
the middle class led by the detrimental to national order namely the National
Democrat Party firebrand or security, royal throne, Reform Council, National
Suthep Thaugsuban, which national economy or public Legislative Assembly,
were punctuated by instances administration, whether the and the Constitution
of deadly violence. As a act occurs inside or outside Drafting Committee to
last desperate effort, the the kingdom.” Section reconfigure the country’s
government resolved the 44, along with the existing democratic institutions to
crisis through new elections, lese majeste legislation, either prevent the return
but demonstrators and thugs section 116 of the criminal of lower-class-based
sabotaged it by preventing code dealing with sedition, populism or to severely
people from voting in and “Head of NCPO order handicap it in the event it
many areas of Bangkok and 3/2015, Section 12,” which prevailed through electoral
some other strong anti- banned political assemblies means. In this endeavor,
Thaksin areas.Their rationale of five persons or more, academic collaborators who
expressed in the slogan gave the military regime sought to dilute popular
“Reform before elections” a wide latitude to detain participation aided the
was a sanitized code for its opponents and critics, military. Among them
devising constitutional leading a number to seek were right-wing theorists
arrangements that would asylum abroad. like Anek Laothamatas,
prevent the Redshirts, the who had proposed several
popular term for Thaksin The subtext of the military’s years earlier “a balanced
supporters, from ever coming rapid fire moves was, “The compromise between three
to power again. civilians have screwed things elements: the representatives
up. Now we’ll fix things so of the lower classes who are
When Suthep’s forces finally this chaos never happens the majority in the country,
provoked the military into again.” It was one that the middle class, and the
ousting Yingluck, Thaksin’s resonated with the country’s upper class” to have “better
sister who served as a stand- middle class, but it was not democracy” and to avoid
in for him, the military was without appeal to some the “tyranny of the majority”
determined not to repeat sectors of the Thaksin base that had brought Thaksin to
the mistakes of the coup- that were weary of daily strife. power through thumping
makers of 2006. It quickly majorities.2 Laothamatas,
and decisively set about Political stability, underpinned a former communist turned
promoting an interim by the broad support of the counterrevolutionary thinker,
constitution, the centerpiece anti-Thaksin middle class and was a member of the junta-
of which was the infamous with little opposition from a appointed National Reform
Section 44, which gave civil society that had split into Council.
UnderminING Democracy
TH E 2019 E L E C T I O N S I N T h a ila n d , the Philippines , a n d I n d i a 13The product of this tinkering Assembly passed, many
with the machinery of of which were related to
democracy in order to national security.
Supplementing emasculate it was the
constitutional
Constitution of 2017, the
key provisions of which Handicapping the
Opposition in the
constraints were the creation of a
Senate of 250 members Run-up to the
on future that would be selected by Elections
the National Peace and
civilian Order Council; vesting the After at least 10
governments
Senate with the power to postponements to allow it
veto any bill relating to to consolidate its hold on
were some amnesty passed by the
House of Representatives;
political power, the NCPO
finally set the elections for
444 laws participation of the Senate Parliament for March 24,
in the selection of the Prime 2019.3 During the campaign
that the Minister during the first five period, the regime took
handpicked
years of the constitution; advantage of its position of
eligibility for the post of power and systematically
National prime minister of a person harassed the opposition.
who had not been elected
Legislative to the National Assembly; For instance, despite
and allowing the head of the Prime Minister Prayuth
Assembly NCPO to remain head of the being the head of state
passed, many government indefinitely if the
National Assembly could not
and paid 125,590 baht per
month for performing this
of which form a government. function by royal decree,4
the Ombudsman ruled that
were related The Constitution was ratified the prime minister was not
to national
in August 2016 through a a government official, thus
controversial referendum allowing him to circumvent
security. that posed harsh restrictions
on free expression via a
the law that required
government officials to
draconian Referendum Act resign their posts in order to
that carried potential 10- run for office.5 This enabled
year prison sentences for Prayuth to combine his
“misrepresenting the draft, government-financed official
criticizing its content, or duties with his campaign
disrupting the vote.” sorties and use official
means of communication,
Supplementing constitutional such as a weekly compulsory
constraints on future civilian television program carried
governments were some 444 by all television channels,
laws that the handpicked to deliver his campaign
National Legislative propaganda.6
Focus on the Global South
14 J u LY 2 0 1 9Perhaps the most crippling down to 200,000. The Palang Pracharat Party (PPR),
instance of harassment party’s program called for funneling of personal money
visited on the opposition the cutting of 60 billion to Future Forward’s campaign
was the Constitutional baht from the defense fund, and holding of shares
Court’s dissolution of the budget that could be used in a media company while
pro-Thaksin Thai Raksa to fund a universal welfare campaigning for office, a
Chart Party for nominating system “with pensions for violation under Section 98 (3)
Princess Ubolratana as the elderly, the extension of the 2017 Constitution.
its candidate for prime of health care to all citizens,
minister on the grounds free education, and a Thanathorn and the FFP
that the act was “hostile commitment to lift every either contested or denied
to the monarchy,” which family above the UN-defined the last three charges, but
was supposed to remain poverty line.”9 after the elections, the
“above politics.”7 The party Constitutional Court went
had intended to contest Chief party leader Thanatorn on to suspend Thanatorn
174 of 375 constituencies, Juangroongruangkit was, based on the last charge,
so that the ruling left the however, very clear that preventing him from carrying
pro-Thaksin bloc unable to the aim of the proposed out his duties as an MP, even
field candidates in a great budgetary move was to as regime officials sought to
number of these areas since “make coups part of history… prosecute him on the other
the deadline for registering to establish that civilian charges.
new parties had passed. government is above the
Thai Raksa Chart had been army.”10 The message Pointing out that seven
formed to stand alongside apparently played well as out of nine judges of the
its ally, the Pheu Thai Party, the campaign progressed, Constitutional Court had
to get around electoral rules especially with the younger either been appointed or
disadvantaging large parties. generation who flocked had their terms extended by
around Thanatorn like he was the NCPO, a spokesman for
Analyst Paul Chambers saw a rock star. It did not play the Asian Parliamentarians
the court’s move as designed well with the military. for Human Rights, said, “In
to prevent the Thaksin bloc the context of the many
from gaining a majority in The NCPO’s agents went politicised charges against
the National Assembly. “We after Thanatorn and Thanathorn, it is difficult not
must remember that the Future Forward for alleged to see the Constitutional
judges now sitting on the violations of the election law Court’s move as another
Constitutional Court were and Constitution, among attempt to silence a voice
endorsed by the junta,” said which were the posting critical of the junta. For Thai
Chambers.8 of a misleading claim on people to have faith in their
Facebook that Thanatorn country’s democratic process,
The Future Forward Party had been president of authorities must show that
also faced harassment. This the Federation of Thai they respect the outcome of
was not surprising, though, Industries,11 “defaming” the recent vote. This means
for among Future Forward’s of the NCPO by claiming, allowing those elected to take
priorities was reducing also on Facebook, that it part in public life, no matter
the size of the army, with was poaching former MPs how ‘inconvenient’ their
400,000 officers to be cut to defect to the pro-regime opinions are.”12
UnderminING Democracy
TH E 2019 E L E C T I O N S I N T h a ila n d , the Philippines , a n d I n d i a 15Protesters in Bangkok In addition to legal The clip was proved to be
demand impeachment of harassment, Future Forward fake.13
members of the Election became a victim of a
Commission of Thailand concerted black propaganda
for alleged irregularities campaign on the internet, Election Day
during the March 24 the most brazen example Irregularities
elections, March 31, 2019. of this being the circulation
Source: Prachatai available on of an audio clip purportedly Though it was constitutionally
https://www.flickr.com/photos/ showing Thanatorn handicapped and the law
prachatai/40540066923/ negotiating with the exiled book was thrown at it, the
under a Creative Commons Thaksin over ministerial opposition went on to contest
Attribution 2.0 http:// positions. This was aired on the March 24 elections.
creativecommons.org/ Nation TV, a channel known While largely peaceful, there
licenses/by/2.0 to be close to the NCPO. was apparently a disturbingly
Focus on the Global South
16 J u LY 2 0 1 9Voters eligible for early
voting cast ballots at a
polling station in Sukhothai
province on March 17, 2019.
Source: Sukhothai Public
Relations Office, available
on http://thainews.prd.
go.th/th/news/detail/
TCATG190317182225005
under a Creative
Commons Attribution 2.0
http://creativecommons.
org/licenses/by/2.0
large number of irregularities, of a broader problem. For The Election Commission
most of them associated with instance, the report includes has come up against heavy
the conduct of the elections a screenshot of a military- criticism from many quarters
by the Election Commission connected Facebook chat for many “malfunctions” on
(EC). A number of these group with posts ordering election day, but especially
are presented in a post- its members, presumably for its “discovery” of extra
election report produced by military personnel, to vote ballots after the initial tally.
the civil society organization for the government party These discovered ballots
Forces of Renewal Southeast Palang Pracharat.14 Also added to the total votes
Asia (FORSEA) that claims reproduced is a memo for a number of parties,
the irregularities were from a unit in the Interior including those for Palang
documented by ordinary Ministry encouraging its Pracharat. Also eliciting anger
citizens and had been recipients to vote for parties has been “the long delay in
checked for authenticity. with a pro-NCPO agenda.15 the announcement of the
The irregularities included While not all irregularities [official] results, which seems
vote-buying, fake and reported are attributed to to suggest an intentional
inaccurate ballots, pro-NCPO actors, there are delaying strategy by the
government efforts to enough examples to suggest military government.”17 It was
influence voters, tampering a pattern of pro-NCPO already nearly six weeks after
with ballot boxes, irregularities: 16 reported the elections when the official
irregularities connected attempts by government tally was announced May 7.
with the transportation of officers to influence voters
ballot boxes, and Election were documented, which
Commission “malfunctions.” amount to 22 percent of Results Show
all reported frauds and Continuing
While only a few examples irregularities.16 These Polarization
of each type of irregularity documented instances
are presented, these can have become the basis In the final results announced
reasonably be expected to for FORSEA’s call for the by the EC, the opposition
be samples or a microcosm invalidation of the elections. Pheu Thai Party, as expected,
UnderminING Democracy
TH E 2019 E L E C T I O N S I N T h a ila n d , the Philippines , a n d I n d i a 17came out on top with 136 of 500 seats in the House of to their constituency seats,
parliamentary seats, followed Representatives—to form a would have pushed their total
by Palang Pracharat with 116, governing coalition. seats to around 255 seats.
Future Forward with 81 seats,
and the Democrats with 53. However, there was enough
However, when it came to the The Party-List legitimate confusion around
popular vote, Pheu Thai came Controversy the allocation of party-list
in second, with 7,881,006 seats owing to the fact that
votes, while Palang Pracharat As the battle to create a both the 2017 constitution
was first with 8,413,413.18 government unfolded after and the organic law on
What this meant was that the elections, the EC again elections dealt with the
while the pro-Thaksin vote came under fire, this time on allocation of party-list seats
remained solid, there was the issue of the allocation with words rather than
also significant support for of the party-list seats.There numbers, leaving room for
the military regime, with are 500 seats in the House subjective interpretation
the likelihood that many of Representatives, 350 of of numerical outcomes not
supporters of the pro-coup which are given to those covered by the written rules.
Democrats had transferred who get “first past the This subjective interpretation
their loyalties to the military- post” or get more votes of the rule laid in the
backed Palang Pracharat.19 than anyone else in each of Constitution and organic
these constituencies; 150 are law on election concerned
For a party that had been allocated to the parties based the allocation of the
formed just a few months on their share of the popular remaining but undistributed
before the elections, Future vote. party-list seats. Based on its
Forward’s performance was interpretation, the EC brought
impressive. It disputed While the EC begged for down the minimum threshold
Bangkok with Palang understanding owing to to 30,000 from the traditional
Pracharat, with these the alleged complexity of benchmark of 71,000,
two parties reducing the the formula for allocating benefitting 10 small parties
Democrats to marginal status party-list seats, many have that so happened to lean right
in a district that was once suspected it of manipulating rather than left, thus helping
their stronghold. the votes to favor the regime. tip the parliamentary numbers
Some have claimed that prior in favor of the regime.
Overall, the political to the 2019 elections the
polarization of the country EC had specified that the The upshot of this mix
remained in place, leading minimum threshold of votes of confusion, subjective
to an intense numbers game for a party to qualify to have interpretation, and
to build a winning coalition a party-list seat was 70,000.20 coincidence is that the
even before the elections Using this benchmark, only opposition coalition only
took place. Immediately after 15 parties were qualified to secured about 245 seats
the initial results were out, receive seats.21 Of these against the 253 of a possible
seven parties, led by Pheu parties, those that made up pro-regime coalition.22 In a
Thai and Future Forward, the opposition front of seven strongly worded editorial, the
announced the formation of a parties would have been Bangkok Post has called this a
“Democratic Front” that said entitled to an allocation of case of EC “hijacking,” which
it had the numbers—255 out party-list seats that, added is not entirely untrue.23
Focus on the Global South
18 J u LY 2 0 1 9Six parties—Pheu Thai Party, Future Forward Party, Saree Ruam Thai Party, Prachachart Party, Puea
Chat Party and PalangPuang Chon Thai Party—form the Democratic Front on March 27, 2019.
Source: Prachatai available on https://www.flickr.com/photos/prachatai/47424799502 under a Creative
Commons Attribution 2.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0.
While much commentary on biggest barriers to however, has not been a
the elections have registered democratic development Facebook or Twitter-driven
disapproval, there are those in Thailand have just process. Most likely, as in
who see a silver lining in seen it smashed. And Brazil, it was because of
it, which has to do mainly not just among the urban applications like WhatsApp
with the Future Forward millennial LGBTQ-friendly and Line becoming the
“phenomenon.” While the social media addicts. mobilizing tools, their
Palang Pracharat resorted to Look at the by-election “invisibility” giving them the
old-fashioned electioneering result in Chiang Mai potential to “wrest elections
mechanisms, such as relying province where FFP away from the kind of top-
on local “godfathers” and creamed the PPR party down control that both PPR
cascades of “canvassers,” machine. And this is not and PT have been using.”25
the FFP did not reach out Chiang Mai City. There
to godfathers and had no aren’t enough trendy
canvassers, yet came in lefties there to pull this off The Struggle to Form
third. According to one by themselves.24 a Government
experienced observer,
Those of us who have FFP’s reliance on social media In the weeks after the March
seen the patron-client has been suspected to be elections, the contending
system as one of the one of the key factors. This, blocs engaged in intense
UnderminING Democracy
TH E 2019 E L E C T I O N S I N T h a ila n d , the Philippines , a n d I n d i a 19Political map of Thailand according to constituency seats won by different parties.
Source: NordNordWest and Garam on https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2019_Thai_general_
election_results_per_province.svg under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/
licenses/by-sa/4.0/
Focus on the Global South
20 J u LY 2 0 1 9competition to form a viable missteps that would erode junta-created regime a
governing coalition. For its credibility. As one analyst veneer of legitimacy. But the
the Democratic Front, it wrote, “Let the junta- failure of the government
was an uphill struggle made appointed Senate choose party to secure a majority
even more difficult by the Gen Prayuth and let him rule and the consequent
loss of several expected over a coalition government. difficulties to create a viable
party-list seats owing to And let’s see where that coalition have led many
the dissolution of the Thai goes and how long it lasts. to question whether in
Raksa Chart and the EC’s This is a time to let the fact the results might not
interpretation of party- generals further undermine have led to its opposite: to
list rules. To a number of themselves.”26 discredit the new order even
observers, however, the before it began. It is also
difficulties the opposition In any event, General Prayuth questionable if Prayuth’s
faced in forming a viable was elected Prime Minister serving as the new regime’s
governing coalition, even if by the bicameral National leader is not a case of
one could be formed, were Assembly on June 5, 2019, strategic misjudgment, since
so great that expending with 500 of the 750 votes this is tantamount to giving
much energy on it was not going to him, though not a military face to what the
justified. There could be after a session that elicited generals have so assiduously
so many conflicts of interest an unprecedented level of promoted as a post-military
to blow up such a diverse criticism of his performance civilian regime.
coalition at any time and in the preceding five years.
simply keeping it together His rival, Future Forward What is certain is that
would detract from the leader Thanatorn, got 244 instead of reducing
business of governing, votes. But in a preview of Thailand’s social
though some would say the difficulties facing the polarization, the 2019
that there are no conflicts alliance of three big parties elections have confirmed
of interest that cannot be and an assortment of smaller and deepened this. Despite
solved by a generous helping parties supporting Prayuth, the political establishment’s
of cash. Moreover, getting he is not expected to be able determined effort to banish
the 376 MP votes necessary to form a government till the it, Thaksin’s lower-class
to outweigh the combined end of the month.27 Indeed, based transformative politics
votes of the pro-military inner-party strife owing to has continued to cast its
members of the House of differences over whether or long shadow over Thai
Representatives and the 250 not to support Prayuth has society. Ironically, therefore,
senators expected to side led former Prime Minister the establishment’s reliance
with them in choosing the Abhisit Vejjajiva, a Democrat, on the military may
prime minister was not within to announce his forthcoming have increased. In this
the realm of possibility. resignation from the House connection, the appointment
of Representatives over of a hardliner like General
It would be better, in this the Democrats’ decision to Apirat Kongsompong as
view, to be in the opposition support Prayuth. head of the army does not
and make the military- bode well for a peaceful
led governing coalition The elections have been resumption of the stalled
accountable; to let it make necessary to provide the democratization of Thailand.
UnderminING Democracy
TH E 2019 E L E C T I O N S I N T h a ila n d , the Philippines , a n d I n d i a 21Conclusion the regime was to prevent interpretation of the law, and
a populist government of coincidence that marked
The middle-class-based the Thaksin type from ever the process was that the
street mobilizations led coming to power again and, opposition had little chance
by anti-Thaksin forces if one did come to power, of forming a governing
provoked the Thai military to hem it in with so many coalition.
into launching a coup against constraints that it would
the democratically elected become ineffective. The prospects of having a
government of Yingluck Democratic Front coalition
Shinawatra in May 2014. In the lead up to the 2019 government were quite
These forces were convinced elections, the opposition dim following the elections,
that elections would simply was subjected to systematic leading a number of analysts
give the allies of the former harassment, the most blatant to suggest that instead of
Prime Minister a permanent case being the dissolution of pursuing this fruitless effort,
majority. The troubles in the Thai Raksa Chart Party for the pro-democracy coalition
the streets reinforced the nominating a member of the should focus on being an
military’s perception of itself royal family to run for office. opposition and making a pro-
as the only institution that Political and legal harassment military regime accountable,
could provide stability to the were also directed at the letting the latter be the one
country. up-and- coming Future torn apart by a fractious
Forward Party that explicitly coalition politics and lose
After five years in power, campaigned on a platform of credibility in the process.
the military regime allowed “making coups history.”
parliamentary elections to In any event, the government
be held last March 24. In A number of irregularities coalition led by Palang
the intervening period from marked the electoral process Pracharat mustered 500 of
since they launched a coup on election day, a number of 750 votes to make General
in May 2014 to the recently- these committed by officials Prayuth the Prime Minister,
held elections, the military of state agencies encouraging in effect succeeding himself.
created a constitutional and their personnel to vote There have been questions
legal framework that would for pro-regime parties. whether the alliance of
institutionalize their role as Documented instances of three big parties and an
the arbiter of and key actor in such acts compiled by the assortment of smaller parties
Thai politics. Forces of Renewal Southeast will be able to form a stable
Asia have become the basis ruling coalition. Even more
The centerpiece of the of that organization’s call problematic is that Prayuth
Constitution of 2017 was a for the invalidation of the is providing a military face
Senate appointed by the elections. to a regime whose authors
current military regime that have promoted as a post-
had extensive powers, which The major controversy of military civilian government.
included voting for a Prime the post-election period is What is certain is that the
Minister and vetoing bills for the Election Commission’s elections have not reduced
amnesty that the House of solution to the complex the social polarization that
Representatives approved. process of allocating party- Thaksin’s lower-class based
The aim of the constitutional list seats. A result of the transformative politics
and legal innovations of mix of confusion, subjective wrought on Thai society.
Focus on the Global South
22 J u LY 2 0 1 9accessed May 25, 2019. The orders. According to this view, a
princess and the Thai Raksa large number of voters were not
1 Pavin Chachavalpongpun, “Thai Chart party claimed she could so much expressing support to
Politics in the Post-Succession no longer be considered royalty NCPO as voting to please their
Period,” in Religion and Politics since she had officially given up political patrons.
in Southeast Asia (Seoul: Korean her royal titles. 20 Pravit Rojanaphruk, “Doubts
Studies Association, 2017), p. 8 Quoted in ibid. over Election Commission’s Party
429. 9 Dave Kendall, “The Future List Allocations Grow,” Khaosud
2 Pasuk Phongpaichit and Chris according to Rising Star English, April 8, 2019, http://
Baker, Thaksin (Chiang Mai: Thanathorn,” Bangkok Post, www.khaosodenglish.com/
Silkworm Books, 2009), p. 240. March 3, 2019, p. 3. politics/2019/04/08/doubts-over-
3 “More shadows than lights: 10 Ibid. election-commissions-party-list-
human rights commitments of 11 He was president of a provincial allocations-grow/, accessed May
Thai political parties,” Prachathai branch of the FTI, but this was 27, 2019.
(English), March 22, 2019, mistakenly reported on the 21 This was the estimate of Future
https://prachatai.com/english/ Future Forward site, a clerical Forward secretary general
node/7983, accessed June 14, error that was admitted and Piyabutr Saengknokkul. “Pheu
2019. corrected. Thai Govt Hope on Ropes,”
4 “2014 Interim Constitution of 12 Asian Parliamentarians for Bangkok Post, May 9, 2019.
Thailand,” Wikipedia, https:// Human Rights, “Thailand: 22 “Game of Seats,” Bangkok Post,
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_ Regional MPs Urge End May 9, 2019, p. 1. This figure
interim_constitution_of_Thailand, to Judicial Harassment of included the seats of two likely
accessed May 25, 2019. Prominent Politician,” Jakarta, coalition allies that obtained a
5 Jintamas Saksornchai, “Prime May 25, 2019. total of 103 seats, the Democrats
Minister not a Gov’t Official, 13 Forces of Renewal Southeast and the Bhumjaithai Party, a
State Agency Rules,” Khaosod Asia, Fraud, Irregularities, populist party that sought to
English, March 14, 2019, http:// and Dirty Tricks: A Report on legalize marijuana as a cash crop.
www.khaosodenglish.com/ Thailand’s 2019 Elections, p. 16. 23 “EC Seat Move is Hijacking,”
featured/2019/03/14/prime- 14 Ibid., p. 22. Bangkok Post, May 10, 2019, p.
minister-not-a-govt-official-state- 15 Ibid., p. 23. 8.
agency-rules/, accessed May 25, 16 Ibid., p. 21 24 Anonymous source, Bangkok,
2019. 17 Ibid., p. 31. June 13, 2019.
6 The TV program was earlier 18 The biggest reason for this was 25 Ibid.
known as Khuen Khwamsuk that the Pheu Thai contested 26 Thitinan Pongsudhirak, “Anti-
Hai Khon Nai Chat, or literally only 250 out of 350 seats so as Regime? Join the Opposition
‘Returning Happiness to People not to compete against Thai Ranks,” Bangkok Post, May 17,
in the Nation’. Friday Night TV Raksa Chart, Pheu Tham , and 2019.
Loses PM Monologues, Bangkok Pheu Chart, which were set up to 27 There is speculation that the
Post, March 27, 2019, https:// hoover up party list votes. When military may, in fact, have
www.bangkokpost.com/news/ Thai Raksa Chart got dissolved, an interest in indefinitely
politics/1651520/friday-night-tv- this strategy left the suite of prolonging the formation of
loses-pm-monologues, accessed parties short on popular votes a new government since the
May 25, 2019. and hence party-list seats. Constitution allows the NCPO
7 “Thai Party that Nominated 19 An alternative analysis is that to be the government as
a Princess for PM has been PPR engaged in traditional long as no government can
Dissolved,” CNN, March 7, election practices and got the be put together. This would
2019, https://edition.cnn. backing of political “godfathers” allow it to continue to escape
com/2019/03/07/asia/thailand- whose patronage networks parliamentary scrutiny and
party-dissolved-intl/index.html, would deliver votes on their prolong its dictatorial rule.
UnderminING Democracy
TH E 2019 E L E C T I O N S I N T h a ila n d , the Philippines , a n d I n d i a 232
The Philippines
Not Electoral Politics as Usual
The three years since the excitement and controversy? President Rodrigo Roa Duterte
presidential elections of May Rodrigo Duterte, the confers with his children,
2016 had been the most authoritarian septuagenarian reelectionist Davao City Mayor
tumultuous years politically who has achieved a degree Sara Duterte-Carpio and vice
mayoral candidate Sebastian
of the last three decades. of control over Philippine
Duterte, during a campaign
The years following the politics not seen since the sortie at the Davao City
mid-term elections of May era of the dictator Ferdinand Recreation Center on May 10,
2019 promise more of the Marcos in the 1970’s and 2019. Photo by Richard Madelo/
same. The cause of all the 1980’s. Presidential Photo
Focus on the Global South
24 J u LY 2 0 1 9Background at above 7,000 as of early eliminationist rationale that
of the Elections: May 2017.4 An opposition reminds one of the pseudo-
The Bloody War senator, Sonny Trillanes, citing scientific basis of Nazi racial
on Drugs a government report, claimed theory. A whole sector of
that based on an internal society has been unilaterally
Duterte was elected president government report, the real stripped of their rights
through nearly 40 percent number of deaths related to to life, due process, and
of the votes in 2016. He the drug war over a year and membership in society. This
ran for the most part on a half was at least 20,322.5 category—drug users and
platform of eliminating crime drug dealers—according to
and drugs through draconian What is beyond doubt is Duterte comprises some three
methods, his most famous (or that Duterte has brazenly to four million of the country’s
notorious) statement being encouraged the extrajudicial population of 104 million.
that he would “fatten all the killings and discouraged due He had written these people
fish in Manila Bay” with the process. The very night he out of the human race. With
bodies of criminals.1 While took his oath of office on rhetorical flourish, he told
essentially a single-issue June 30, 2016, he told an the security forces: “Crime
candidate, Duterte promised audience in one of Manila’s against humanity? In the first
to do away with corruption, working-class communities, place, I’d like to be frank with
lambasted the elite, and “If you know of any addicts, you: are they humans? What
called himself a “socialist.” go ahead and kill them is your definition of a human
He stayed on the law and yourselves as getting their being?”
order issue, invoking his parents to do it would be too
record of cleaning up the painful.”6 In October 2016, Drug users are consigned
southern city of Davao, where Duterte told the country, outside the borders of
he had been mayor for the with characteristically sinister humanity since their brains
better part of nearly three humor, that 20,000 to 30,000 have allegedly shrunk to
decades. Duterte had been more lives might have to be the point that they are no
accused of having maintained taken to cleanse the country longer in command of their
a death squad that killed of drugs. Having learned faculties to will and think.
hundreds of people in Davao,2 to take Duterte seriously In his speeches justifying
and he was not shy in alluding even when he seems to the police killings “in self-
to his extra-legal methods. be joking, many observers defense,” Duterte said that
expect this figure to be an a year of more of the use of
Since Duterte assumed underestimation. On another shabu—the local term for
office in late June 2016, occasion, to any police officer meth or metamphetamine
thousands of drug users have who might be convicted of hydrochloride—“would shrink
been slain by the police or killing drug users without the brain of a person, and
by vigilante groups linked justification, he offered an therefore he is no longer
to them, with the police immediate pardon “so you viable for rehabilitation.”8
admitting that 2,600 deaths can go after the people who
were attributable to police brought you to court.”7 These people are the “living
operations while another dead,” the “walking dead,”
1,400 were the work of Duterte’s massive killing who are “of no use to society
vigilantes.3 Other, more of drug users has been anymore.”9 Not only do
reliable sources put the figure underpinned by an these people turn to violent
UnderminING Democracy
TH E 2019 E L E C T I O N S I N T h a ila n d , the Philippines , a n d I n d i a 25crime to slake their drug for a number of years, Opposition Runs a
habit, he said, but they are inflation rose in 2017 and Defensive Campaign
paranoid and could resist hit a nine-year peak of
arrest, putting the lives of 6.7 percent in October Despite these controversies,
police officers in danger.10 and November 2018, a the Philippines entered the
development partly triggered 2019 campaign period with
by the so-called TRAIN (Tax the president enjoying an
Other Controversies Reform for Acceleration and amazing 81 percent approval
Inclusion) Law that included rating, though this had
The human cost of the war a 2.50 peso tax on a liter of variations by geography
on drugs was not the only gasoline.11 and economic status.14 This
controversial issue facing had a big impact on the
voters as the country entered Duterte’s brazen misogynistic way the opposition was
the electoral campaign period remarks worried many that to conduct its campaign.
of 2019. Especially alarming the president’s macho and The president’s popularity
was what people saw as his patriarchal attitudes would set placed the opposition in a
brazen assault on political back the gains of the women’s defensive position from the
rights, exemplified by the movement.12 Duterte’s very beginning instead of it
indefinite imprisonment of neglect of the pursuit of the adopting the principle that
his most vocal critic, Senator aspirations for autonomy of an aggressive offense was
Leila de Lima, on fabricated the Moro people had helped the best defense.
charges of being involved trigger the takeover of the
in the drug trade and a Muslim city of Marawi by The head of the Liberal
concerted effort to shut fanatics linked to ISIS and Party (LP), the core of the
down Rappler, an internet led to its destruction in a elite opposition, defined
news network critical of the military counteroffensive that the electoral strategy of the
administration. left thousands homeless and party as “Project Makinig”
displaced.13 His declaration or “Listen to the People”
Equally worrisome was what of martial law throughout project, with the aim of
many regarded as Duterte’s Mindanao in May 2017 in consulting the voters on the
assault on the separation response to the Marawi shortcomings of the party
of powers. The Senate and crisis, many feared, would be while it was in power during
House of Representatives a prelude to its imposition the previous administration,
were turned by Duterte allies nationwide. and during and after the
into pliable instruments 2016 elections.15 In the
of the executive while his Then there was Duterte’s view of some observers,
allies in the Supreme Court close relationship with China this effectively made the
willingly cooperated with his and worries that loans from elections a referendum
subordinates to summarily the latter would lead to a on the party than on the
eject in 2018 the Chief “debt trap”; that Chinese president.
Justice, Maria Lourdes investors were gaining
Sereno, whose criticism had special privileges; and that Moreover, the marked
angered Duterte. the administration was reluctance of the lead
abandoning the country’s candidate, Mar Roxas, to
There were other concerns. territorial rights in the West campaign with the rest of
After being low and stable Philippine Sea. the opposition, apparently
Focus on the Global South
26 J u LY 2 0 1 9seeking to soften his image but the candidates were
as an opponent of Duterte mainly seen as proxies for a
and sell himself instead as popular president. For those
an economist willing to work running the administration’s
with the administration, campaign, a candidate’s
was viewed by some as reputation was a secondary
“downright demoralizing.”16 issue since they framed the
One analyst observed, campaign as a referendum
Individual candidates on the president. The
like Chel Diokno, Florin president’s daughter, Sara
Hilbay, Samira Gutoc, Duterte, expressed in a
Gary Alejano, and Erin particularly brazen way the
Tañada did well in virtual irrelevance of the
television debates, but personalities and records of
the opposition never the candidates.The young
graduated from being Duterte, the campaign Despite these
controversies,
perceived as a ragtag manager of Hugpong, said
group that did not pose that “honesty should not be
a serious challenge to the an issue” in the elections.18 the Philippines
administration machine… That she was serious was
If the polls are showing evidenced by Hugpong’s entered the
that it might be difficult inclusion in its Senate slate of
for even one of them Imee Marcos, who had been 2019 campaign
to reach the “Magic
12,” they have partly
widely exposed as having
fabricated her educational
period with
themselves to blame. credentials, and of Bong the president
However much people Revilla and Jinggoy Estrada,
might support what you who had spent time in jail for enjoying
an amazing
stand for, they will find it plundering the public till.
difficult to identify with
people who behave like
they’ve already lost.17
The election results
appeared to have proved
81 percent
that Sara Duterte was approval
right: in the elections
The Administration’s honesty would be much rating,
Triumphalist
though this
less important than the
Campaign “tatak Duterte,” or Duterte
The administration, on
brand. Despite their tainted
past, Marcos and Revilla
had variations
the other hand, waged a were elected. Even more by geography
triumphalist campaign, riding telling were the impressive
on the president’s popularity. victories of Bong Go, a and economic
status.
Two overlapping slates, PDP political neophyte whose
-Laban and Hugpong ng only credential was his
Pagbabago, ran with the being in the president’s
administration’s blessings, inner circle and always
UnderminING Democracy
TH E 2019 E L E C T I O N S I N T h a ila n d , the Philippines , a n d I n d i a 27being photographed by them the universal • One interesting
his side in public events, unpopularity of the main development was the
and Ronaldo (“Bato”) de la opposition candidate, formation of a common
Rosa, the former head of the Mar Roxas, whose elite front of candidates from
Philippine National Police background, record the normally fractious
who had served as the main in public service, and labor movement.
implementer of Duterte’s personality militated Despite the lack of
bloody war on drugs and against him getting a resources, Labor Win
thus was roundly condemned seat in the Senate. waged an impressive
by human rights activists. • At the local level, campaign focusing on
dynastic politics bread and butter issues.
prevailed, though there
Interpreting were some bright spots:
the Results Vico Sotto, who ran a Violence, Intimidation,
progressive, issues-based and Harassment
The results were a campaign, unseated the
catastrophe for the gangster-like Eusebio Instances of violence were
opposition: it was completely dynasty in the city of still observed during the
shut out in the Senate, Pasig; Congresswoman campaign period, but
making this the first time Kaka Bag-ao won apparently not as significant
since the advent of the the governor’s race as that in recent past
post-Marcos EDSA Republic in Dinagat province elections. As of May 12, the
that an opposition slate in Mindanao; and eve of the elections, the
was totally excluded from all members of the Commission on Elections
the winners’ circle. There politically-entrenched recorded 43 incidents of
were, however, interesting Ejercito family (headed election-related violence
developments in the local by no less than former nationwide. Among the 73
contests. In its post-election President Joseph victims of these incidents,
analysis on May 23, Focus on Estrada) lost in the local 20 were killed while 24
the Global South Philippines and national seats they were hurt.20 There was one
team agreed on the following vied for. high-profile assassination,
points:19 • The broad left was that of Congressman Rodel
• The president’s dealt a setback, with Batocabe, who was killed,
popularity was the the militant Makabayan along with his bodyguard,
major factor explaining (Patriotic) Bloc losing1.5 while waiting at a bus stop.
the overwhelming pro- million party-list votes Arrested for his murder was
administration results, from its 2016 total and the mayor of Daraga, Albay,
and not the stands on the social democratic whose alleged motivation
issues and criminal party Akbayan losing its was to eliminate Batocabe as
records of many of only seat in the House rival for the mayoralty in the
those running for office, of Representatives. coming elections.
especially in the Senate There was no
race. consensus, however, There were apparently
• There were, however, if this constituted a many cases of intimidation,
some other contributory “repudiation of the left” some of them reported by
elements, among by the electorate. candidates and followers of
Focus on the Global South
28 J u LY 2 0 1 9You can also read
